Today’s Selections 2016-2017
IT’S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY – Dec. 7th 2016
So now we resume with 19 of 22 winners from PPs 4-10 (with the three from the inside coming in short fields).
4th – KOC is 11-35 Win with Non-layoff Shipper + Dropdown types and 27-45 ITM with the Non-layoff Shipper + FBK angle and 54% ITM with Non-layoff Shipper + Stretchouts. Vineyard Storm (9) was finally in contention in the stretch last time out. KOC’s go to is up.
5th – There are no honest $100K runners here, so we downgrade the fig projection and assess who appears to best meet the condition. Granitz has been looking for a spot for Epic Journey (see the two Trainer Scratches recently). Let’s assume that Epic Journey is dropping in class today (using the fractional change in purse value method and considering the Stakes Placed types that went in last). Granitz is nearly 50% ITM with dropdowns and while he doesn’t do much with layoffs or shippers, we’ll make an exception, as this one won twice doing just that. Hasn’t missed the board here and looks to keep that stat intact. Tony is also 28-53 ITM with Surface Change + First Three Turf types and Keeneland shippers are 4-13 Win and 8-13 ITM at the current meeting. The other Tony is now 10-21 with his multiple angle and has several bomb angles in play here: Better races, moving UC and with Shortenup or Stretchout types. Mr. Bennett is now 17-30 with his multiple angle.
Exacta Key 1/3,5
Saver Trifectas 3,5/1/2,3,4,5
8th – On the River (8) comes out of a solid race that saw 5 of the 9 runners entered for $12,500. Proven Warrior (the winner) has won 7 of 11 in 2016, Mutation came back to win an Open $10K at Ind, Nelson El Camino was ITM in SALW $10 at Haw and Sandio (8th in that race) went wire to wire for the win in $6250 company in next start. Hinsley is >50% ITM with three of four of the angles in play here (and 42% ITM with the other). OTR’s 5YO campaign has been his most productive of career.
Conditional $230 Win 8 for 2-1
$40 in Weighted Saver Exactas 1,3/8 and $5 Saver Trifectas 2,5,7/8/1,3
9th – Demasi’s piece has an ideal %E and looks right.
IT’S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY – Nov. 30th, 2016
1st – Sinster Blue (4) goes for Hemingway and the 5YO has solid ITM stats for all five single angles and gets veteran rider FDLC in the irons. Will be 4-5, but undeservedly so.
Exacta Box 4,5
2nd- Star sire of the Darley Stud, Bernardini, has an SPI of 2.16 in Sprints. Theatric (5) is moving through her conditions and looks right here for Harty, who has a 38% Win four characteristic multiple angle going today. She’s been working well and gets veteran Tampa rider Pablo Morales here. Spanish Concert (4) is a horse for the course and figures prominently versus these 3 & 4 YOs, but KOC has no angle in play.
Exacta Box 4,5
3rd – Diane Morici (nee Alvarado) is the trainer of 2010 BC Marathon winner Eldaafer. She graduated from Noel Hickey’s Irish Acres Farm school of conditioning and was 7-11 ITM at the last GP meeting. She’s 50% ITM LT with an AEPS of $5000. I dare you to try to find Alvarado’s record anywhere. It’s one of the glitches built into Equibase’s record keeping system. If you change your name, your previous record is lost. Waz is the surrogate today. I gotta bet Lupo’s Way. Win or lose, this is why we dig deep.
$60 Win 5
4th – Summit County (4) is our value play of the day. The 6YO has a solid record, likes the Tampa surface and can handle today’s distance, showing three ITM finishes in sprints at Aqu and Belmont in 2015 for not less than an open $10K condition. Rigattieri is 3-3 ITM with RtS types at the last two meetings. KOC has not had a Girten PTB finish ITM at the last 5 meetings. Woodard’s piece didn’t bang heads with much in last two (Mybrotherjohnya 1-18 in P2 and Royal Fighter 4-51 LT). Joe remains eligible for the SALW5 condition but enters for a nickel in spite of solid record in 2016. He’s also 0-9 with L4-8s. Reardon’s runner hasn’t won in 14 months.
$60 ATB 4
5th – Arabian Queen (8) always makes above par final fractions. She finished up close to an Open $25K runner and a Black Type Stakes winner in last. Looks solid here and wouldn’t be surprised if she scratches, but perhaps Johns has his eye on those SH16s….
6th – Circular Thunder (2) won in first try near the bottom, then was sent and almost pulled it off at 23-1 over the summer. Jackson is 6-8 ITM with TtoD + RtS types. My JOY Sami Camacho is up. Barbaran babysits for Ed Williams here and Ed has had some luck in this situation. Dealingatthegate (3) was par in maiden win in the spring.
Exacta Box 2,3 and Saver Trifectas All/2/3
7th – Mr. Bennett is 36% win with Dropdown + Favorite types. Giselle Ma Belle (1) has been Ubide’s personal ATM over the years but the old girl needs an injection of funds if the party is to continue. Penny Hulme is a sneaky bugger. She’s 7-17 ITM here in L5T and has bombed 3X with Sugah Sweet, but SS’s only turf win was for a nickel in an N2L at Colonial. As Penny Robinson’s fellow space traveler, the Robot, might say, “That does not compute”.
Mr. Pick 4’s daily plays
Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 3, 4 WT 1** WT 6, 7 WT 2, 6, 8 … $.50 … $18.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 7 WT 2, 3 WT 3, 4, 5 WT 1, 4, 9 … $.50 … $18.00
Best Bet **
Nov. 26th – Opening Day
Many customers have purchased today’s single card selections, so in fairness to them we are breaking tradition and not posting free Opening Day picks, however, every Wednesday is Free Play Wednesday. Good luck and good racing!
Friday, July 1st
The new meeting begins (sort of).
1st – Max Ubide bombs with FTTs, is 56% ITM with Layoff + Surface Change types and is > 50% ITM with 2TSs. His Achilles heel here is the Non-shipping L1-3 (5-77). Stewart keeps his streak at the Summer Festival going with two more ITM yesterday bringing his Festival total to 13 of 14 ITM. Inspector Bill (5) had one of Chad’s best MATP angles going for him in last (UC + Surface Change and FTT) but the turf course was recovering from 2.6 inches of rain just 48 hours earlier. Gets another chance for a piece as Stewart wins 25% with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and is ITM regularly with 2TTs.
Exacta Box 3,5,6
2nd – Manning is 11-19 win with L9up + Shipper + Dropdown types in L10T, and 85% ITM. Enough said.
Pick 3 – 6/All/8
3rd – The jig is up for Deaton. After several years of touting his bomb virtues the crowd has finally gotten on board and his odds have plummeted. (Free Play Wednesday’s bring hundreds to the website each week, but that doesn’t help keep a good thing good. However, I’m at a loss for generating interest in any other fashion.) Bill is now 13-18 ITM with 1st 3 Turf types. This filly raced over a pronounced speed favoring turf course in debut (10 wire-to-wire winners in the previous week) and gets another chance. Must get some action though before the trigger gets pulled (ala in the $20-1 range, mas or menos).
4th – Fuller-Vargas is a 3rd generation conditioner from the Lockhart tribe. Today she has a daughter of leading North American Turf Sire Distorted Humor (22% winners here at Tampa in L5T). She goes to Camacho (who was flawless on the turf yesterday) instead of her regular boy (and husband) JL Vargas and that is the icing on the cake for me.
Saver Tri (if alive in the Pick 3) All/8/4,6
5th – A nice bet against here as the ML favorite Gucciguccigirl (3) goes for Barbaran (1-105 with Shippers and 0-28 with UC + PTB types). RG Smith is 8-15 with FTSs and had a $42-1 FTS bomb at the 15-16 meeting. Camacho is up for us again.
$33 ATB 7
6th – Two more bet against trainers here. Barabaran again (Shipper 1-105 and FBK 2-59 and PTB 4-128) and Schultz (with the O’Connell PTB – Kathy is 7-62 with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown + Shortenup types for an IV of 0.52).
Exacta Box 1,5,8
Saver Trifectas 1,5,8/2,6/1,5,8
7th – Fennessy bombed three times with 1st 3 T types at average odds of $50-1 last season, two of them at the Summer Festival, a year ago today.
Exacta Key Box 8/1,4
8th – We find ourselves reluctantly stuck with Rockhard Lady (3) in the nitecap. We expounded on conditioner Delgado’s virtues yesterday. RL went a couple of clicks above par in final fraction for maiden win. Hennessy’s piece had two MTO scratches recently, hinting at preferred surface. Waz was 0-21 at the last meeting with Shippers (and won on 4% with them in P5T). Williams wins only 5% with 1PTBs, but Monterrey could sew up jockey bonus here.
On second thought, I’m only giving Rockhard Lady (3) the place.