On the final day of the season, we collected three times: we had the winner of the 2nd, $2.80, the winner of the 3rd, $6.80 and our 3rd race $4 exacta wager returned $28.00, and we had the winner …
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Good luck and good racing!
Johnny B.
May 2nd – Day 91
As we close the book on another season, I want to say thanks to all my loyal subscribers, to my new subscribers and to those single card selection players who visited the site for the first time this year. Without your continued support, The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper would not exist.
During the off-season, all of the historical documents on the site will be revised/updated, and I will be tweaking the website further. I am looking to create search functions within the “Today’s Selections” and “Trip Notes” postings. I’m also planning on introducing improved Final Fraction Pars for the Turf that reflect the extra distances run as a result of the variable placement of the portable rail. Your ideas and input are also encouraged and welcomed.
Have a safe and profitable summer! (I’ll be at Delmar, in Box 606, the last week of August. Hope to meet you there!)
See you on Opening Day, Dec. 11th, 2010.
Johnny B.
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
Handicapper’s Note: KOC and Ness remain tied with 50 wins each going into the final day of the season. Kathy has 7 starters this afternoon and Ness only 1, but it ain’t over till it’s over! Johnny B. predicts the two will share the honors.
1st – Kid Carousel’s (4) only two victories on the dirt were at Tampa and the 7YO posted big EP before hanging after a long drive in last. Reunites with Centeno today and things should go well. Babo (5) was closest to par in both races at today’s distance and looms a threat after “evenly” outing in last. The bible says that Beat The Freeze (7) had par figs in last two but I’ve got him posting a 59 and a 56 in a par 74. That’s why I make my own numbers. Should improve on the three class dropdown, but it will have to be six or seven lengths to be competitive here.
Win 4, Exacta Box 4,5 and Trifectas 4,5/6,7/4,5,6,7
2nd – Smak Dab (5) has been very reliable and posted a par performance at 8.5F three back. Centeno reunites. Ordinary effort puts these away. Éclair Des Bois (1) drops in 2nd start and could surprise on a FAST surface. Barliv (6) had numbers that were competitive enough to be a factor against these in both two turn starts of the season and Paquette won 10% (25% ITM) with Plain StRs in L3T.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/1,6 and Trifectas 5/3,8/1,3,6,8
3rd – Red Ranger (6) made big effort in the SLOP in last and previous two would have bested all but perhaps Cody Boy (12). Trainer Ernie Poxon was 63% ITM with No Change types in L3T. The ML favorite Downinfront (11) goes for KOC but she won only 8% with TtoDs and 3% with RtSs in L3T. Certainly may improve but stats don’t support win.
Win 6, Exacta Box 6,12 and Trifectas 6,12/5,11/6,11,12
4th – I’marealguy (2) finished a close 3rd to multiple turf race winner (including a Handicap $26K) Chip Hunter in the fall at Remington and has won two on the dirt since then at Tampa. PPs 1, 2 & 3 have now won 11 of the last 16 on the lawn, about twice their fare share. Pitchnicholas (10) had a final fraction that was six clicks above par two back at today’s distance and Nick goes for Robert Jeffries who was 46% ITM in L3T.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,10 and Trifectas 2,10/7,8/2,7,8,10
5th – Cut It Up (8) (half sister to multiple Tampa race winner Cut For Luck) has been very reliable and gets the nod here dropping in class and shedding seven pounds in switch to McManigell. Cover Ur Heart (1) has posted some par numbers and improvement in 2nd off the layoff would not surprise. Dotpower (4) chased fast EP before weakening in the far turn in last at 8.18F and comes back fast in a sprint. Fits well. ML favorite Shesoffthescale (9) goes for KOC and she has poor stats with FBKs and RtSs and Dropdowns, so I’m off her.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/1,4 and Trifectas 8/9/1,4,7
6th – Als Big Girl (13) posted big fig in SALW10 win at Gulfstream. Is the one to beat if she gets in. Stormey Wonder (3) is in top form now and will try to run away with it. Lacy’s Tune (5) had par final fraction in turf debut with troubled trip. HVG sticks for KOC here. Asteria Meadow (8) was not averse to racing over a FIRM turf course and is also in top form now. Nena Bella (9) goes for Lonnie Arterburn and his numbers with with these angles are satisfactory, but jockey Brittany has not won a race on the grass at Tampa in the last four seasons.
Win 13, Exacta Key 13/3,5,8 or Exacta Box 3,5,8 (if 13 is out) and Trifectas 3,5,8/9/3,5,8
7th – Arsenal (4) is a Lerman firster that has been working sharply at Lambholm and gets Centeno in the irons. Kissinacop (8) has been going satisfactorily on the grass, but lone dirt sprint was dismally sub-par. It’s A Start (9) posted two solid numbers in dirt sprints recently and lightens up with McManigell riding today.
Across The Board – 4, Saver Exacta 8/4 and Saver Trifectas 7,8,9/7,8,9/4
8th – Gently used Sky Cup (5) has not won a race in 2009-2010, but finished up close in two of three Tampa starts in the last six weeks. Centeno has the mount for Rosemary Homeister Jr. who has made an early exit from the premises. The competition had many more starts on the grass and does not have a single turf win between them. The trainer title may be in the bag for O’Connell at this point in the card, as she has five starters earlier in the day, but if it’s not, this could be the tie-breaker with the two leaders facing off for the final time this season here.
Win 5, Exacta Box 5,8 and Saver Trifectas 6/5,8/1,2,3,5,8
9th – Woodruff Ridge (3) has been sharp since the new year began and drops in class after posting par figs in two turf dashes at the higher level. He had the best final fraction in the field at today’s distance eight weeks ago and looks like a winner with Tina McManigell up. Matai (7) goes for Proctor and he won 24% (55% ITM) with L1-3s in L3T. Expect Matai to be ready.
Win 3, Exacta Box 3,7 and Trifectas 3,7/2,4,9/3,4,7
10th – El Wildcat (7) goes for Proctor and he won 23% (59% ITM) with Plain Dropdowns in L3T. Wildcat had the two best figs in the field in his two maiden company starts and should get to the winner’s circle today. Avaras (3) went well in both starts and switches to Gonzo here. Arterburn firster Awesome Dream (8) doesn’t have to beat much to be up for a piece.
Win 7, Exacta 7/4, Trifecta 7/8/4 and $.50 Superfectas 7/All/4,8/4,8
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May 1st – Day 90
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Chillin Dylan (5) was close to par going seven panels on the dirt at the $25K level in January and then went evenly for six three weeks later (for $32K). Returns to the dirt today after being in contention in all three two-turn turf starts and drops to rock bottom for Raymond who won 10 of 26 with double class drop types recently. Just Another Bud (1) was ITM in two of three routes and just hung in last. Centeno sticks. Bucks Wink (3) woke up in last at 39-1 and the time for game playing is over.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/1,3 and Trifectas 5/7,8/1,3,7,8
2nd – Purely Precious (1) shortens up and comes back fast after posting par figs in last three. There are no par figs among the rest of the field. None even close. Bring Da Ruckus (7) shortens up and gets another chance going for only the 2nd time in a sprint over a FAST dirt surface at the Downs. Stag Film (2) had big EP and stopped in last but may be one of the few that can stay with Purely Precious early. Cornetto (3) should not be 8-5 as Rhone won only 5 of 30 (16%) with 1 3 OC types in L3T.
Solid Chalk – Win 1 and Daily Double Wheel 1/All
Exacta 1/7 and Trifectas 1/2,3/2,3,7
3rd – Dancing The Mambo (6) goes for Behrens and he was 50% ITM with TtoD + RtS types in L3T. Toffee (2) is a Rhone runner and he was 54% ITM with Dropdowns in L3T. Solari Island (1) goes for Pimental and he is only 3 for 92 in L3T with no FTS winners.
Across the Board 6 and DD Wheel (see R2)
4th – Amazon Wall (10) was above par while gaining late last time out in only 2nd start on the dirt and is clearly the one to beat. Flaming I.D. (3) has improved in every start and shortens up today. HVG has the return call.Dancing For Diamonds (2) bested the rest two back at today’s distance, but has had 18 tries.
Win 10, Exacta Box 3,10 and Trifectas 3,10/2,6/2,3,6,10
5th – Unpinkable (4) fits well and Paquette was 25% ITM with FBK + Dropdown types in L3T. In last, Manned Mission (7) rushed to the lead early, then was shuffled back about 9 lengths on the backstretch, got going again four wide in the far turn, and finished well to be up for 2nd in probably the most peculiar trip of the season. Comes back fast, goes RtS today and switches to Gonzo. Stay tuned…
Win 4, Exacta Box 4,7 and 4,7/2,3,10/4,7
6th – Bridesmaid In Silk (8) was well above par in last, has improved in every start, and should handle the stretchout well. Ditto for Desireable Desiree (3). Wicked Moon (7) was second to Bridesmaid in Silk in last and gets another chance on the stretchout while switching to red hot Pablo Morales (62% ITM in the past week).
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/3,7 and Trifectas 7,8/3,12/3,7,8,12
7th – Onotheregoestokyo (10) finished well and had monster adjusted final fraction in 2010 debut. Tokyo won in second off the layoff last season for Rhone (while moving up in class in that one). Figures strongly and Rhone won 20% (40% ITM) with FBKs in L3T. Ness and O’Connell will both be trying as the race for the leading trainer title gets down and dirty in the final weekend of the waning season.
Win 10, Exacta Key Box 10/4,7 and Trifectas 10/1,3,8/4,7
8th – Rising Barometer (3), winner of four races drops in class after being outgunned in NGS last time out. She had the biggest fig in the field in Tampa debut and %E indicates a strong desire to go longer. Ness won 31% (58% ITM) with Dropdowns in L3T. Spidawoman (5) also overreached in last two, first in an NGS and then trying the lawn. Look for improvement today in return to the dirt and at the same distance as maiden win. KOC had two yesterday and Ness had one, so Kathy resumes the lead by the narrowest of margins. The stakes are high for both here.
Win 3, Exacta 3/5 and Trifectas 3/2,6,8/5
9th – Avie’s Pegasus (10) goes for Clement and he was 62% ITM with FTS + FTT types in L3T. Chris is wrapping up another great season at Tampa with 30% winners and 66% ITM. Avie has been working sharply over in my neighborhood for debut and gets red hot Pablo Morales up.
Across The Board – 10 and Trifectas 10/1,3,4,7/4,7
10th – Last time out, Unbridled Mon (7) made a strong, four wide middle move in the turn, assumed command entering, was caught in the furlong grounds then came again to turn away the challenge of Rare Ransom for the win. He shortens up today and gets Centeno. Previous was close to par. Master Gino (1) goes for Bramante and he has a habit of bombing with FBK + Distance Change + No Recent Works types. High Chris (10) had big EP in last and goes RtS today where he had several par efforts at Calder in the fall.
Win 7, Exacta Key Box 7/1,10 and Trifectas 1,7,10/5,8/1,7,10
11th – Sneaky Bunnie (8) had career year in 2009 and worked sharply last week in preparation for return. Luhr is good with layoffs. Bramante does Fontana a favor with PTB entry that doesn’t figure, but these guys pull some fugazy stuff, so I Love To Say Yes (6) gets a piece.
Win 8, Exacta Box 6,8 and Trifectas 6,8/1,4,7/6,8
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April 30th – Day 89
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Mecca’s Gold (9) had only above par fig in the field going two turns over a fast surface at the end of February and had an excuse in last. She drops in class and has an opportunity to show us her best again this afternoon. KOC has FTS Lil Linda (1) and you’ve got to believe Linda is well intended after Ness evened the score in the trainer standings on Wednesday. Kathy goes to leading rider Daniel Centeno here and the pair have won 28% of their starts this season.
Win 9, Exacta Box 1,9 and Trifectas 1,9/2,4,5/1,9
2nd – Smart Cole (1) goes for KOC and she was 59% ITM with 2TSs in L3T. Dream Rocker (5) had the best fig in the field in debut. Enormiso (7) returns to a sprint after racing forwardly early with “Change Of Pace” in first route.
Exacta Box 1,5,7 and Trifectas 1,5,7/2,8/1,5,7
3rd – Takamosa (2) goes for Gerry Bennett and he won 33% (52% ITM) with TtoD + Dropdowns in L3T. Mikes Bet (6) was close to par in several routes on the dirt and returns to the dirt today while adding Centeno. Major Gold (8) goes for Michael Thomas and he was 80% ITM with StR + Dropdown types in L3T.
Win 2, Exacta Key Box 2/6,8 and Trifectas 2/1,7/1,6,7,8
4th – Claxton (2) had the best fig in the field (and at the $10K level) on February 25th and now drops several notches looking for 1st win of 2010. Syncopation (3) goes for Ness in 1st OC and he will be trying here as the race for the training title comes down to the wire. Divine Wonder (6) gets another chance after satisfactory effort on the dropdown in last.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2,3/5,8,9,10/2,3
5th – Entice (2) had close to par final fraction in last over a GOOD turf course and has been very reliable on the grass. McCarthy won 25% (50% ITM) with UC types in L3T. Ada Clare (3) is another reliable one and KOC will be trying here with Centeno reuniting in hopes of getting to the winner’s circle. More Memories (5) goes for Mr. Alexander and he was 63% ITM with L4-8 types in L3T. Memories is ITM better than ½ the time on the lawn and fits well here with Pablo Morales up.
Win 2, Exacta Key Box 2/3,5 and Trifectas 2,3/1,4,6/2,3,5
6th – Forbidden Dancer (9) had above par final fraction in debut and KOC was 61% ITM with 2TS + 2TT types in L3T. Keyhole (4) went satisfactorily as a value play over a SOFT turf surface in the rain on the 18th and comes back fast and on the drop. Previous three were at or above par.
Win 9, Exacta Box 4,9 and Trifectas 4,9/1,2,8/4,9
7th – Jones Brother (6) shortens up after posting the best pace and speed in the field in debut. Well Tanned Prez (1) showed speed to the turn in MSW debut and doesn’t face any of those types today. Previous JOM Noel Vigil has the return call.
Win 6, Exacta Box 1,6 and Trifectas 1,6/3,4/1,3,4,6
8th – Enchanted Miss (2) had monster final fraction at the about 8.5F distance in last (albeit over a +26 course) and goes for KOC who is desperately trying to hang on for the leading trainer title. She won 21% with Plain Shortenups in L3T and goes to Centeno again here. Soldier In Charge (5) goes for Criollo and he was 55% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L3T. Switch to LA Gonzalez improves chances. Jack’s Roma (8) has been sub-par but reliable and had above par final fraction in last.
Win 2, Exacta Key Box 2/5,8 and Trifectas 2/4/5,8
9th – Zippin Along (2) was par in debut and returns to 6F this afternoon. Pablo Morales reunites. Misbahavin Angel (3) goes for Scace and she won 28% (43% ITM) with FTSs in L3T. My Sweet Maureen (8) is from the KOC barn and the KOC/Centeno combo is 60% in the money this season.
Exacta Box 2,3,8 and Trifectas 2,3/10/2,3,8
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April 28th – Day 88
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Smooth Glitter (7) comes back fast and shortens up after posting above par EP before weakening in last. Williams had four FBK winners at long prices in L3T and gets another chance in this one. Garlington (9) shortens up today after dueling early in last. Siccardi (3) had monster work at Hunter Farm recently, but Chad Stewart had no L9up winners in L3T.
Win 7, Exacta Key Box 7/3,9 and Trifectas 3,7/1,6/1,3,6,7
2nd – Ready To Repent (3) goes for Tortora and he had three winners in the last two seasons. The 3YO filly raced forwardly with fast early fractions in last two routes at the $12,500 level, then disappointed as the beaten favorite in last. Improvement is expected today. In The Wind (8) goes for Chad Stewart and he won 28% (64% ITM) with Plain Stretchouts in L3T. Centeno has the return call.
Win 3, Exacta Box 3,8 and Trifectas 3,8/1,7/1,3,7,8
3rd – Lots Of Tricks (6) had best start of the season in last, with above par pace and speed, and drops here for Cibelli who won 24% (58% ITM) with dropdowns and 21% (55% ITM) with Plain Stretchouts. Looks tough to beat with Ronnie Allen Jr. up from the chute. Repenter (2) goes for Ness who closed the gap in the race for the leading trainer title to one on Sunday. Ness wins 41% (71% ITM) in 1st 3 OC types and goes to Centeno to try to get home in front in this one.
Win 6, Exacta Box 2,6 and Trifectas 2,6/1/2,6
4th – Coast To Coast (5) returns to the dirt after posting above par efforts in two of last three on the surface. Red hot Pablo Morales has won 1 of every 3 starts in the last week. Class drop ices it. Mr. Herman (3) has been chasing fast early fractions lately and made solid effort in last at today’s distance. Double Bullet (4) drops to this level for the first time and recent Calder work from the gate was three clicks above par for 3F bullets at that facility.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/3,4 and Trifectas 5/1/2,3,4,9
5th – Proven Wynner (6) has been above par in last three and figures best of all on the dropdown with Pablo Morales in the irons again today. Hudson Township (2) goes for KOC and she won 20% (53% ITM) with FBK + StR types in L3T. Hudson had several solid efforts at a mile and should improve returning to a FAST surface.
Win 6, Exacta Box 2,6 and Trifectas 2,6/4,8,9/2,6,9
6th – Jazzit (8) improved while moving up in class in last. Summit’s High Noon (6) went well in both starts and has %E that is in the zone for a successful stretchout. El Padron (9) went evenly in last and broke maiden at the distance two back. He gets red hot Pablo Morales today.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/6,9 and Trifectas 8/2,3/2,3,6,9
7th – Ms. Drewcilla (5) had par final fraction while setting par EP two back then faded after contesting fast early pace next time out. She is ITM in 5 of 7 on the lawn and fits well here with HVG up. Egress (3) goes for Clement and he was 75% ITM with FTT types in L3T. Bewitching Anna (9) made par effort in last and shortens up today.
Win 5, Exacta Box 5/9 and Trifectas 5/1,3,4/1,3,4,9
8th – Will Prevail (6) chased very fast fractions in last before weakening and shortens up here for the win with Pablo Morales up. Delacour won 33% (67% ITM) with Plain Shortenups and 57% (71% ITM) with 3TSs in L3T.
Win 6, Exacta Key 6/3,9 and Trifectas 6/8,10/3,9
9th – Noble Tiger (1) was close to par while outgunned in last and gets another chance on the class drop today. Behrens was 34% ITM with FBKs in L3T. Clean record on the lawn adds confidence. Broad’s Beware (3) and Doc On The Rock (8) have Ness and O’Connell facing off for one of the last times this season and much is riding on the outcome of this one. Scace has Atlantic Venture (7) and she was 59% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s in L3T.
Exacta Box 1,3,8 and Trifectas 1,3,8/7/1,3,8 or Exacta Box 3,7,8 (if the Plain 1 is out)
10th – P. Buck (4) is a stats play that has Mr. Alexander winning 50% (63% ITM) with 2L + FBK types in L3T. Pablo is up, adding value here. Sarindi (1) goes for Cibelli and she was 58% ITM with RB + UC types in L3T.
Win 4, Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/3,5,6/1/4
11th – Emishi Warrior (7) seeks eligibility for SALW 5 races in first off claim and long layoff for Kate Francy. Hawkins Ridge work on the 17th was five clicks above par for 3F bullets at that facility tipping her hand. Clever move has me thinking that Francy is a shrewd operator. She goes to Pablo Morales here. Pressing Issue (9) goes for Mr. Alexander and he was 63% ITM with L4-8s and 56% ITM with Shippers in L3T.
Win 7, Exacta Box 7,9 and Trifectas 7/3,6,8,10/9
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April 25th – Day 87
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Homeister reunites with Way To Eden (6) after Eden had the two best 5F figs in the field and posted big EP after being roughed up in the start in last. Wise Frolic (2) goes for veteran trainer Donald Hunt who had two winners in sixteen attempts in L2T and who is 62% ITM with L1-3’s. Last two were competitive efforts. Triptane (7) recently moved to McCarthy barn after two solid efforts at this level for Kaelin.
Win 6, Exacta Key Box 6/2,7 and Trifectas 2,6/4,5/2,6,7
2nd – Don’tfightthefed (2) had the two best 5F figs in the field and returns to the distance today after racing forwardly before weakening at 6.5F in last. The Atlantis Storm (6) has had two great workouts recently and may surprise off the long layoff. Only has to beat a bunch of sub-par plodders.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,6 and $1 Trifectas 2,6/3,4/2,3,4,6
3rd – Canadian Jade (4) goes for Cibelli and she was 56% ITM with RB + UC types in L3T. CJ has improved in every start this season and is 15-23 ITM lifetime now. Repeat would not surprise. So Very Irish (1) goes for McCarthy and she was 53% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L3T. He went to the first call in 46.80 in last at 8.18F and then dueled to the ¼ pole before weakening. Today’s, shorter race, has the same 1st Call par. RtS move works well here.
Win 4, Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/2,8/1,2,4,8
4th – Friendly Selection (7) had well above par final fraction in last and goes for Ness who won 31% (63% ITM) with Plain Stretchouts in L3T. Sky Cup (10) goes for O’Connell and she also had above par final fraction in last, finishing ¼ length ahead of Friendly Selection in that one, but Sky Cup was weakening, while Friendly Selection closed belatedly. Ness closed the gap in the trainer standings to two on Saturday and Ness and O’Connell will be trying with whatever they’ve got left, to get a few more home in front in the final week of the meeting.
Win 7, Saver Exacta 10/7 and Trifectas 7/2,3,8.9/3,10
5th – Dynabox (3) was four clicks above par at the 1st Call of last that went over a -9 SLOPPY track before flattening out. Now Paquette brings her back fast and shortens up. Look for improvement today. Rosies Little Girl (6) is a Luhr FTS and she put over two firster bombs last season. Miss Quack Quack (7) was above par in last and has had been knocking at the door all season.
Exacta Box 3,6,7 and Trifectas 7/5,8/3,6
6th – TURF ONLY – Isittruemossy (8) goes for Mr. Alexander and he was 7-13 ITM with Layoffs >90 days in L2T. Mossy has two wins and a second in four tries on the grass and has been working sharply for return. Wotan (9) had par final fraction in maiden win and Delacour was 54% ITM with RB + UC types in L3T. Leading rider Daniel Centeno has the return call. Bandit Prince (10) goes for Ness in 1st OC where he won 41% (71% ITM) in L3T. Ness looks to put away O’Connell now and he has the resources.
Exacta Box 8,9,10 and $1 Trifectas 8,10/2,4,5/8,9,10
7th – I’m no weatherman, but it looks like things will be wet right about now. Little Freebie (8) reunites with Centeno after posting solid efforts in last four. The lightly raced 6YO has five 2nds to her credit and was ITM in 3 of 5 over off tracks. Brisk Tide (3) has improved in every start of 3YO campaign and deserves our support. Sweet Inspiration (6) had competitive fig in first try at rock bottom on an off track and gets another chance today. Shesoffthescale (9) has %E that is at the upper limit for today’s distance and KOC won only 9% with StR and UC types in L3T. Bronx Babe (4) won at the route in only dirt start.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/3,4 and Trifectas 8/6,9/3,4,6,9
8th – DIRT OR TURF – Chief Grey Cloud (6) goes for Scace and she won 20% (43% ITM) with FBKs and 23% (43% ITM) with UC types in L3T. Cloud has gone well in a variety of conditions and had a par fig on the lawn two back. Switch to LA Gonzalez improves chances. Beware the Phipps runner, Tipperary Davor (5). Phipps is 0-5 with FTS this season.
Win-Place-Show 6 and $1 Trifectas 6/3,7/3,7,10,12
9th – Judy Patootie (1) has figs that are consistently superior to the rest of these and Beyer enthusiasts would agree that this is one of the best situations in racing. How to make any profit on the race is another story. Ness wins 29% (61% ITM) with FBKs and Judy may be the horse to put Ness in the lead in the trainer standings. Saldanha (5) drops in class after having satisfactory figs in last four. Appears to be well intended. Sweetamygee (6) has a clean record and may pop off the layoff for bomb maker Michelle Sharp.
Solid Chalk – Win 1, Exacta 1/5 and Trifectas 1/2,6/2,5,6
10th – Rinaldo’s Gold (9) woke up on the dropdown with above par pace and speed numbers and comes back fast for Raymond who had eight FBK winners in L2T. Off track raises questions. Rare Red Birds (5) was three clicks above par at the 2nd Call in last and comes back fast for Mora. Should be trying again this afternoon.
Win 9, Exacta Box 5,9 and Trifectas 5,9/1,3,7,10/5,9
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April 24th – Day 86
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Miss Britches (8) improved in last three, had the best fig in the field in last, and McVey switches to Montalvo today. Chelly Graeme (1) was close to par at $12,500 level in February and now comes back fast and on the drop for Granitz who has good numbers with these angles. Chelly races 8 lbs. lighter in switch to McManigell here. K. One Kitty (5) shortens up after posting competitive figs in last two.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/1,5 and $1 Trifectas 3,8/1,5/1,3,5,8
2nd – Coby (4) comes back fast and drops down for the bomb maker Bernard Bramante who goes to David Amiss in this one. Coby dueled for 5F before weakening in the stretch on March 21st and wake up would not surprise today. Perfect King (8) shortens up and Pablo sticks, so we’ll give the King another chance. Limosneyo (10) was outgunned in last and should go better chasing softer pace today, albeit sans Pablo.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/8,10 and $1 Trifectas 4,8/6,10/4,6,8,10
3rd – Little B. Rosson (5) goes for Ness and he won 24% (56% ITM) with Shippers and 35% (62% ITM) with UC types in L3T. Rosson had close to par figs in last two and that’s more than you can say about the rest of the field. Expect improvement in return to FIRM turf course today. Ness reduced O’Connell’s lead to three after having two winners yesterday. You gotta believe he wants another training title. Si Si Mon Amie (2) drops in class here and has had great success on the lawn, with 18-22 ITM lifetime. Si Si had above par final fraction in last at today’s distance.
Win 5, Saver Exacta 2/5 and Trifectas 5/3,6/2
4th – Tripped In A Creek (4) has been working extraordinarily well for return and drops a notch here looking for maiden win in 1st start of 4YO season. Brass Beads (5) goes for Luhr and she put over two bombs with FTS in L2T. La Mo Ma Lass (10) was above par in last but outside post does not help chances.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/5,10 and Trifectas 4,10/1,5/4,10
5th – Marquet Cat (2) set blistering fast pace in NGS last time out and drops today. Last three have been above par. The Cat is obviously in condition and should have a better time of it here with red hot Pablo Morales up. Chip Hunter (3) has been ITM in last seven and certainly fits well on the shortenup.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2/6,7,8/3
6th – Sea Scamp (1) showed above par pace and speed in first off Luhr claim and drops to the N2L condition for the first time. Improvement is expected in return to FAST surface. Native Coaster (4) switches to Gonzo after satisfactory effort in last two.
Win 1, Saver Exacta 4/1 and Trifectas 1/2,7/4
7th – Awesome Vow (9) goes for KOC and she was 50% ITM with Plain Shipper + Shortenup types in L3T. Three year old campaign has gotten off to a good start with three solid efforts after maiden win. KOC goes to Centeno here. O’Connell has uncoupled entry here with Regina Twain (7) and Kathy usually is well intended in such situations. Rosie rides Regina Twain. Silver Prism (1) goes for Ness and the race for the training title gets down and dirty with the two leaders facing off in this one with the top three ML choices. Rising Barometer (1a) has %E that is outside the upper limit for today’s race and should not be backed in the event that Silver Prism (1) doesn’t go.
Exacta Key Box 9/1,7 and Trifectas 1,9/4,5,7/1,9
8th – Grinnin N Wynnin (2) improved in 1st off maiden win and shortens up here for Jolley who engages red hot Pablo Morales this afternoon. Four of Jolley’s eight winners last season were FBKs. Kissy Boy (5) drops after contesting fast early fractions in every start this season. Barbaran goes to Centeno off the layoff, a good sign.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,5 and Trifectas 2,5/3,4,6/2,5
9th – Light Days Ahead (4) has been fast and flexible for veteran Tampa trainer Colin Sherwood and is 5-6 ITM on the grass. The only thing missing is the maiden win. Look for it today. Arts Club (6) has been working well for debut and is under the care of 50% ITM trainer Malek Raja. Veteran jockey HVG is up.
Win 4, Exacta Box 4,6 and Trifectas 4/3,5,8,11/6,8
10th – Strategy Meeting (2) goes for Proctor and he was 58% ITM with 2TS types in L3T. PTB adds questionable wrinkle. RoHo is up. VI Mongoose (5) has respectable numbers and certainly may improve in RtS. Lerman 2TS Scotchirish (7) went over WET FAST surface in debut and gets another chance. Works have been excellent. Gonzo sticks.
Exacta Box 2,5,7 and Trifectas 2,5,7/3,9/2,5,7
11th – In last, Together Forever (3) was boxed in deep stretch, found a seam in the final strides, then exploded with a rush to be up by a head. Numbers have been competitive. Coming rightback for a piece would not surprise. Cynthia’s Secret (5) goes for KOC and she won 21% with Plain Shortenups in L3T. All four Tampa starts were solid ITM efforts. RoHo sticks. Regal Jo (9) should get back on track on the dropdown for Rhone who was 54% ITM with Dropdowns in L3T.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/3,9 and Trifectas 5/4,8/3,4,8,9
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April 23rd – Day 85
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Powerstown (6) had above par 2nd Call fraction at 8.18F in last and turns back to 7F this afternoon where he had above par fig in last at the distance. Mr. Allen was 44% ITM with Dropdowns and 35% ITM with RtSs in L3T. Gatis had only a couple of L4-8 starters in the last few seasons and they were both OOM, so we may not be saying “welcome back” to Welcome Back (3).
Win 6, Saver Exacta 3/6 and Trifectas 6/1,5,7/1,3,5,7
2nd – Last Man Standing (5) had big fig despite finishing OOM in last and was closest to par three back at 6F against better. Figures strongly on the dropdown in this one. Allen had three winners on Wednesday and may sweep the early double today. Ride Cowboy Ride (3) had big effort in rightback, $8000 win, faded next time out and is now with the Kendall barn, but Connie was only 1-7 ITM with 1st 3 OC in L3T.
Win 5, Saver Exacta 3/5 and Trifectas 5/4,7/3,4,7
3rd- Castle In The Clouds (2) had well above par final fraction at the “About” distance (and with the portable rail at 22 ft.) in last and comes back fast for Scace who won 20% (43% ITM) with FBKs in L3T.
Win 2, Exacta Key 2/5,9,10 and Trifectas 2/6,8/5,9,10
4th – Indian Sky (7) goes for Jason Servis and he won 5 of 6 with Dropdown + types last season. Ice Thumper (3) is a Smock runner and she was 42% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s and Dropdowns in L3T.
Win 7, Exacta 7/3 and Trifectas 7/3,6,8/3,6,8
5th – Moore Miles (7) goes for Cibelli and she won 35% (60% ITM) with Dropdown + Shortenup types in L3T. MM had big fig and best adjusted final fraction in last and figures strongly with Centeno up. Vantaggio (10) went well in 1st try on the lawn for perennial 15% turf trainer Gary Caple.
Win 7, Saver Exacta 10/7 and Trifectas 7/2,3,8/10
6th – Miss Tricky Me (11) hung in last with fig that would beat these and shortens up here for McCarthy who was 36% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L3T. Jackie’s Sister (12) went evenly in first off the layoff and will show us her best in last opportunity of the season.
Win 11, Exacta Box 11,12 and Trifectas 11,12/2,3,6/2,11,12
7th – Stumbling Block (1) was above par in both efforts over a FIRM course and drops in class today for Ness who remains five wins behind leading trainer Kathleen O’Connor with time running out.
Win 1, Exacta Key 1/5,7,10 and Trifectas 1/2,3,9/5,7,10
8th – Alkabizito (5) just missed with above par fig two back and returns to 8.5F today after solid effort in last. Switch to leading jockey improves chances. Patrick’s Tack (3) was overmatched in last and returns to a route while dropping in class today. Deserves another chance. Pressure (10) shortens up off rightback win and switches to red hot Pablo Morales here.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/3,10 and Trifectas 3,5/1,6/3,5,10
9th – Probation Ready (6) has tactical advantage coming off the pace from PP6. The middle posts have dominated on the grass recently. Ness has another opportunity to close in on the leading trainer in this one. Classy Awakino Cat (4) is bound to improve after disappointing in last three, however Rice is only 3-18 in turf dashes in L3T. Hold the Salt (5) impressed in first of season and looms a threat today.
Win 6, Saver Exacta 5/6 and Trifectas 6/4,5,8/4,5,8
10th – Great Squawk (4) drops to rock bottom in search of first win in last ten starts after posting satisfactory pace and speed numbers two back in open $8000 company. McCarthy won 31% (53% ITM) with Plain Dropdowns in L3T. Mr. Allen’s runner, Proud Student (1) had the best figs in the field in two of last three and Mr. Allen was 44% ITM with Dropdowns and 58% ITM with Stretchouts in L3T.Shegoestoeleven (5) has been satisfactory in last two sprints and drops a notch today.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/1,5 and Trifectas 1,4,5/3,7/1,4,5
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April 21st – Day 84
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
We have now collected with 15 of the last 30 race selections that went, so it’s safe to say we’re on a roll. Let’s keep it going on Wednesday.
1st – A pure stats play in this one. He’s Got Heart (8) goes for Ryan and he was 80% ITM (4-5) with 2L + FBK + Dropdown types in L3T.
Longshot Play – 8 Across The Board
Exacta Key Box 8/4,6 and Trifectas 4,8/3/4,6,8
2nd – Main Street Girl (3) chased fast EP (45.8) over a track with a 0 variant in last and is clearly the best among the pace pressers in this one. Chubby (7) went 46.60 over a +15. Race that is top heavy with early speed creates good situation for the better of the pace pressing types.
Win 3, Saver Exacta 7/3 and Trifectas 3/2,4,6/2,4,6,7
3rd – Pajama Mama (7) had above par adjusted final fractions in last two and had rough trip in last, breaking a bit slow, then being boxed while full of run out of the far turn. Clean trip with Centeno up gets the job done today.
Win 7, Saver Exacta 9/7 and Trifectas 7/2,3,10,11,13/9,10
4th – Markswayornoway (7) chased above par EP in last then faded and shortens up today. Mark was one of L & D Farms star performers in 2009 with 9 of 16 ITM. Switch to winless Mera spooks, but anything is possible with Camilo who bombs with Distance Change types that finished poorly in last. Marchesa (8) was has not been OOM in last four and figs are competitive.
Exacta Box 3,7,8 and Trifectas 3,8/2,6/2,3,6,8
5th – Haras Santa Maria De Araras stable had a turf winner and placed in turf Stakes with Mott connections earlier in the season, so Vira Volta (7) looks like a live one going for Proctor who was 33% ITM with FTT types and 45% ITM with FTSs in L3T. Proctor also has the ML favorite Familiar Shine (8) for Glenn Hill Farm and he was 50% ITM with L + S types in L3T. Uncoupled entry excites.
Exacta Box 7,8 and Trifectas 7,8/5,9/5,7,8,9
6th – Purely Precious (7) beat the ML favorite two back and that one disappointed on the dropdown after chasing softer EP next time out. Precious raced tentatively early in last, as David Boraco, aboard Jr.s Exchange kept Rosie pinned tightly to the rail to the turn, nonetheless Precious posted another strong EP before weakening. Precious drops in class today and gets another chance.
Win 7, Exacta Key Box 7/2,4 and Trifectas 4,7/5,6,8/4,7
7th – Hit Another Gear (1) had above par final fraction in last and comes back fast for Raymond who had eight FBK winners in L2T. The 7YO was ITM at 35-1 earlier in the season in this company. Best Westerner (5) was ITM in 5 of 6 on the lawn and can’t be left out, as Ness tries to close the gap on KOC for “Leading Trainer” honors. Strategic Leader (6) went well over GOOD course in last and shortens up here for the Rhone/Butler combo that has teamed up for 13 wins (and is 38% ITM) this season.
Exacta Box 1,5,6 and Trifectas 1,5,6/2,10,12/1,5,6
8th – Wild Storm Cat (3) goes for Cibelli and she won with 5 of 9 Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdowns in L3T. The Cat was beaten soundly but with close to par fig in last. Our Masterpeace (9) goes for KOC but she had no L9up winners in L3T.
Win 3, Saver Exacta 9/3 and Trifectas 3/5,8,9/5,8,9
9th – Rice has Precision Farming (5) and most of her winners at Tampa are 1L or 2L types. This lightly raced filly has several impressive efforts to her credit and fits nicely here with Centeno up. Miakoda (6) goes for Cibelli and she was 73% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + RB + UC types in L3T. Smokey’s Love (7) goes for Phipps and he is 100% ITM (excluding FTSs) at Tampa for the last two seasons, quite a feat. Defiant Darling is a Granitz runner and his barn was 58% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s in L3T.
Win 5, Exacta Key 5/6,10 and Trifectas 5,7/5,7/6,9,10
10th – Wild Lexi (2) has % E that begs to go longer and Bennett won 20% (43% ITM) with StR types in L3T. Additionally, he won 36% (77% ITM) with FBK + UC types during the same period. “Evenly” comment in last two hints at intentions. Bennett/Allen team has won or placed in 33% of their starts this season.
Win 2, Saver Exactas 3,9/2 and Trifectas 2/4/3,9
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April 18th – Day 83
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Smooth Glitter (2) goes for Ed Williams and has his bomb characteristics of Layoff + Class Change + Distance Change. Unfortunately, the odds maker is on to Williams in this one. Most recent work at the Starting Gate Center was satisfactory. Mata has the return call. Ava’s Chief (4) goes for 56% ITM trainer Anthony Pecoraro and weakened after dueling with Grinnin N Wynnin in last and that one was ITM going UIC in next start. Red Ranger (5) comes back fast after three solid efforts for Poxon and he was 41% ITM with FBKs in L3T.
Win 2, Exacta Key Box 2/4,5 and Trifectas 2/6,7,9,10/4,5
2nd – News (2) was above par in last and goes for Gerry Bennett who won 33% (44% ITM) with No Change types in L3T. Wynning Philospher (4) drops a notch after posting three competitive figs in last three races. Switch to Pablo improves chances. Marsella’s Girl (10) debuted in the SLOP and gets another chance here for Scace who has good numbers with all the angles in play here (2TS 36% ITM, Dropdown 52% ITM and Stretchout 36% ITM).
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,4 and Trifectas 2,4/3,10/2,4,10
3rd – Nothing Honor (8) had the best pace and speed in the field in last and Cibelli was 25% (56% ITM) with Plain Stretchouts in L3T. Nuff Said P Y T (3) goes for Scace and she is great with RB + UC types and wins 20% (43% ITM) with FBKs. Pristeen Queen (7) goes for Gerry Bennett and he won 20% (50% ITM) with Plain Stretchouts in L3T.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/3,7 and Trifectas 8/1,2,4/3,7
4th – Keyhole (2) had close to par final fractions in last three and had above par fig in last two. Liberty St Outlaw, beat Keyhole by three on March 19th and that one came rightback to win on Friday. He was a contender in previous, an *9F race that went in 107 (today’s par is 66). Jockey change to leader would have me betting the farm. Catalano charge Astute (1) has above par final fraction to his credit, but two year layoff puts me off. Sunny Place (8) had two sub-par final fractions and should be 3rd or 4th choice.
Value Play – 2 Across The Board and Saver Trifecta 1,7,8/2/1,7,8
5th – Heaven’s Reward (8) is the only horse in the race that has put up par numbers recently and is clearly the one to beat. Pressing Issue (7) goes for Alexander and he was 63% ITM with L4-8s and 58% ITM with Dropdowns in L3T.
Win 8, Exacta Box 7,8 and Trifectas 7,8/2,4,9/7,8
6th – Star Stuff (4) is a FTS + FTT type that goes for Cibelli and she is 50% ITM with both angles in L3T. Bullet work earlier in the week sweetens it, as does Pablo Morales in the irons. Tool Time Girl (3) goes for Proctor and he wins 25% of the time with all the angles in play here.
Win 4, Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifectas 3,4/2,7,8,9/3,4
7th – Unbridled Mon (3) bested the rest with above par fig in last and Hoffman goes to RoHo to bring him home today. Thru The Desert (2) was ready off the long layoff and may not have shown us his best in maiden win. Sweet Fleet Feet (12) was well backed in last at 8.5F, vied to the stretch before weakening and turns back today with Pablo Morales answering the return call.
Exacta Box 2,3,12 and Trifectas 2,3,12/4/2,3,12
8th – Bestowed (9) has a clean record and had satisfactory final fraction in last over a -20 GOOD turf course. Fig in previous was above par. Wright is 50% ITM with RB types. Scruples In (7) has raced well all season and drops in class today.
Win 9, Exacta Box 7,9 and Trifectas 7,9/1,2,8/7,9
9th – Flirtthenet (4) put up par fig in SLOPPY maiden win and Scace won 45% (82% ITM) with RB types in L3T. Black Belt (5) had big fig at 6F three back and reunites with Centeno today. P. Buck (6) goes for Mr. Alexander and he was 58% ITM with RtS types in L3T. You might wonder why I refer to certain trainers as Mister. I’ve been handicapping Tampa since the late 70’s. If the trainer was a leader back when I started handicapping Tampa, I refer to him as Mister. It’s just a respect thing.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/5,6 and Trifectas 4/1,2,7/5,6
10th – Broken Dreams (6) goes for Proctor and he won 25% (45% ITM) with FTSs in L3T. Note that Broken Dreams had the 2nd fastest 3F work on April 15th and it was lightning fast from the gate. Top jockey RoHo has the mount. Wedding Fever (2) drops and returns to a sprint where she was up for the place on Feb. 17th.
Win 6, Exacta Box 2,6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,4,5/2,6
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April 17th – Day 82
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – A wide open race but we’ll let the stats do the talking in this one. Peteloveshisboots (7) goes for Mello and the veteran trainer won with 4 of 12 in 1st 3 OC in L3T. Groom’s Spirit (5) is a Griffith runner and he won 25% (58% ITM) with Non-shipping L1-3 + RB + UC types in L3T. Ride Cowboy Ride (2) has a couple of superior figs but Connie Kendall was only 1-7 ITM in 1st 3 OC in L3T.
Win 7, Exacta Box 5,7 and Trifectas 5,7/2,3/2,3,5,7
2nd – Dancing For Diamonds (7) improved her pace and speed in last three and further improvement would not surprise. Candy Apple (6) plunges in class, gets Pablo in the irons and Artz won 38% (63% ITM) with TtoD types in L3T.
Win 7, Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/2,8/2,6,7,8
3rd – Holy Fit (8) posted big fig in last at 5F and Mr. Allen won 19% (58%) with Plain Stretchouts in L3T. Checksandbalances (3) went evenly in last and won at today’s distance in January with a close to par fig. Robyn It (4) has been competitive all season and returns to the dirt looking for a piece in what’s likely to be last start of the season.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/3,4 and Trifectas 8/6,7/3,4,6,7
4th – Cake Walk (4) had well above par final fraction in last on the grass but has moved to a new barn and McCooey won only 1 of 44 starts on the grass in L2T. Will she be ready? Here I Come (2) had satisfactory final fraction in last on the grass and turf trainer Tom Proctor brings her back to the grass off maiden win. She’s A Sleeper (7) had above par fig against N1X types in turf debut and is expected to improve today. Proven Wynner (10) is another with a solid final fraction on the grass and she gets hot jockey Pablo Morales here.
Exacta Box 2,7,10 and Trifectas 2,7,10/4,5/2,7,10
5th – Stack The Deck (1) had big EP in last, shortens up and comes back fast for Murray who had three bombs at long odds in L3T. Striking Power (5) had the best fig in the field in last and goes for Delacour who won 33% (67% ITM) with Plain Shortenups in L3T.
Exacta Key Box 1/3,5,9 and Trifectas 1,5/3,7,9/1,5
6th – The West Rim (4) had monster final fraction in only start over a FIRM turf course and Clement has big numbers with all the angles in play here (L4-8 33% Win, Shipper 26% Win and Dropdown 30% Win). Manning firster Pal’s Legacy (10) has been working very well for debut and Manning is 43% ITM with FTT types at Tampa in L3T.
Win 4, Exacta Box 4,10 and Trifectas 4,10/6,7,8/4,10
7th – Dynamite Jewel (10) improved in all three starts at Tampa and appears to have found a track and a class level that works. She adds Centeno today and should be a major factor going for Hyatt who has good success with RB types. Midnight Scrimmage (8) has been very reliable and won or placed in all three two turn starts this season. 8-1 ML is very generous.
Win 10, Exacta Box 8,10 and Trifectas 8,10/2,7/8,10 and $1 Superfectas 10/8/3,4/2,7
8th – Locally based Pyrite Personal (8) has been very sharp and should show us his best again this afternoon. Mr. Mischief (1) has several par figs going two turns on the grass and will welcome a FIRM course to run on today. Trainer Anthony Granitz was 58% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s in L3T. Rumor Has It (5) raced while off form in last two and should be ready to go off the layoff for Hinsley who wins 20% with L4-8s.
Exacta Key Box 8/1,5 and Trifectas 5,8/1,3,9/5,8
9th – Comitatus (4) belongs to the Savoy Stable and they had two maiden winners (including star performer Conchacer and FTS Chasing Smoke) in the last two seasons. He goes for my TOM Dale Bennett and has been working sharply for return. Barbara’s Choice (7) had the best fig in the field in last and made similar effort at 6.5F earlier in the season.
Win 4, Exacta Box 4,7 and Trifectas 4,7/2,6,8/4,7
10th – Purely Class (3) figures, drops in class and adds Centeno. Jenna Lu Hu (5) has taken to the grass well and dominated in sprints last season, however, Dini has only marginal success with long layoffs. Cherry On The Top (9) held her own against N$Y types in turf dash at GP in February and has raced forwardly in both subsequent starts. Cibelli was 55% ITM with DtoT types in L3T.
Win 3, Exacta Box 3,9 and Trifectas 3,9/1,5,8,13/3,5,9
11th – Hanna’s Secret (4) had satisfactory fig in last and Criollo was 55% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L3T. Cowboy Steve (9) is clearly the one to beat with two close to par figs in last two.
Win 4, Exacta Box 4,9 and Trifectas 4,9/1,2,6,12/4,9
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April 16th – Day 81
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Shine On (1) just missed two back at this level and was well above par in OST win in January. Ness is deadly with 1st 3 OC types and is even better when dropping in 1st off claim. Babo (4) was beaten by Alarming Afleet (7) in February but a month later Babo won with close to par fig, while the latter has had two chances but could not get it done. Alarming Afleet moved to the Dale Bennett barn two back but he wins only 15% with 1st 3 OC types.
Win 1, Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/7/1,4
2nd – Tom’s First Coyote (1) was closing well in last and had the best fig in the field in previous. Behrens won 44% (78% ITM) at odds of 5-2 or less in L2T. Smak Dab (6) weakened in the stretch in the same race and I’m looking for an outlier here. Embark (5) goes for Thomas and he was 25% ITM with FBKs in L3T. Myakka Outlaw (7) goes for Paquette and she was 55% ITM with StRs in L3T.Skippers Ridge (9) drops and his numbers are in the zone even if I can’t find anything positive to say about the 6YO.
Win 1, Exactas 1/5,7,9 and Trifectas 1/6/5,7,9
3rd – Blazing Prize (2) just missed in last two and is ITM nearly ½ the time at Tampa. He goes for Mr. Allen and Allen was 42% ITM with FBKs and 65% ITM with Stretchouts in L3T. Diligent Won (8) is sub-par but reliable and Artz won 21% with Stretchouts in L3T. Behrens has Roman Valor (9) and he switches to Montalvo on the dropdown here, a good sign. Brushed Prince (10) was well above par in last on the grass and has been working extraordinarily well at the Classic Mile facility. Winless trainer and jockey peak my interest in this one.
Exacta Key Box 2/8,9,10 and Trifectas 2/3/8,9,10
4th – Oyster (8) was close to par in both tries on the grass and comes right back for Gerry Bennett who was 41% ITM with DtoT types in L3T. On The Spot (2) is a KOC/RoHo runner that had close to par final fraction at the $25K level two back at GP and O’Connell was 63% ITM with 2TTs in L3T.
Win 8, Exacta Box 2,8 and Trifectas 2,8/3,4,6/2,8
5th – Call Me Sir (2) was closest to par in last two. FTS Dirteater (10) goes for Monte Thomas and he has had good luck with firsters at Tampa. The January foal had two recent works at Gunn that were well above par for bullets at that facility. Be Rich (11) gets another chance on the dropdown for Griffith who was 62% ITM with RtSs in L3T.
Exacta Key Box 2/10,11 and Trifectas 2,10,11/1,5/2,10,11
6th – Delacour comes back in seven days with Baronshill (5). Baronshill was well placed (and full of run according to Grunder) in the far turn, was checked for room in the turn, then again at the top of the stretch, then altered course after a seam on the rail evaporated in the stretch. Centeno passes on this one despite Baronhill’s 2nd best figs in the field. Leigh has not won on <14 days rest in L3T, so I’m off Baronshill. Liberty St. Outlaw’s (10) final fraction was sub-par in maiden win. Loose Goose (3) had par final fraction in first time over and may surprise, but one would think they must have been trying at 97-1 last time out. Maybe they want 150-1, greedy bastards. Elder Skatesman (6) is another that could wake up. Look for a late jockey change. El Legado (8) has a big fig at 8.5F and has won on the lawn.
Exacta Box 3,6,8 and Trifectas 8/5,10/3,5,6,8,10
7th – Strut N Stroll (5) drops to near the bottom after dueling past mid-stretch and posting the best fig in the field two back at 7F. Knight Wonder (7) went well in both starts at 6F while racing forwardly in both and returns to the distance this afternoon.
Win 5, Exacta 5/7 and Trifectas 5/3,9,11/7
8th – R Vicarious Girl (8) is entered for a tag and that has the alarm sounded. She is bound to be claimed today and it just doesn’t add up. Is it a SALW 16 eligibility issue? Frontier Franny (10) had above par final fraction in last and is always close to par on a FIRM turf course. Miracle In May (3) shortens up here for Granitz and he is 40% ITM with all the angles in play here.
Exacta Key Box 10/3,8 and Trifectas 10/1,2,9/3,8
9th – Cut It Up (3) improved in last three and has the best figs in the field and gets home in front with similar effort today. Britten’s Beauty (2) goes for my TOM Dale Bennett and he was 62% ITM with L1-3s, Ss and Stretchouts in L3T. Repent’s Gem (7) is capable of racing forwardly and Anderson has a knack for bombing with pace pressers that finish OOM in their last starts.
Win 3, Exacta Box 3/2,7 and $2 Trifectas 3/1,10/1,2,7,10 and $1 Trifectas 7/1,10/1,2,3,10
10th – Sevenseventyone (4) goes for Zwiesler and he was 56% ITM with FTS in L3T but had no FTT + FTS winners at Tampa in L4T. Former NFL player turned thoroughbred trainer Freddie Hyatt (1), on the other hand, has By The Wind (1) and he had two FTS wins on the grass at big prices in L3T.
Win 1, Exacta Box 1,6 and Trifectas 1,6/4,10,12,14/1,4,6
11th – Storm Harbor (1) drops in class and shortens up in return to the dirt where he had above par pace and speed two back. Deny (8) goes for Caple and he was 43% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + StR types in L3T. Circling The Bases (10) has solid EPs and is a threat going for bomb maker Robert Raymond.
Win 1, Exacta Key Box 1/8,10 and Trifectas 1,10/5,11,12/1,10
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April 14th – Day 80
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Can You Mambo (9) has two par figs in two starts and goes for Mello who wins 36% (55% ITM) in 1st Off Claim. Auntie Rutchie (3) has been working well for debut and her trainer Anthony Ryan is 30% ITM with FTSs.
Win 9, Exacta Box 3,9 and Trifectas 9/6,8/3,6,8
2nd – Red Ranger (10) has the best figs among this field of subpar plodders, had troubled trip in last and gets Centeno in the irons today. Chasinthatmonkey (1) goes for Behrens who is always a threat when switching to a leading jockey. LA Gonzalez reunites with Americantour (9) after that one woke up in last. Runningrooster (12) had satisfactory fig despite being soundly beaten in last. Dance Jockey (5) goes for Lynn Scace and she was 52% ITM with Plain Dropdowns in L3T. Rincon does not win back to back.
Win 10, Exactas 10/1,9,12 and Trifectas 10/5/1,9,12
3rd – Ready’s Clyde (4) returns to the dirt where he had the only above par figs in the field in last two. Conditioner Dale Bennett, my TOM, won 27% (53% ITM) with TtoDs and won 25% (57% ITM) with Dropdowns in L3T. RB Higher Ground (5) and Bankers High Yield (7) have been sharp at this level and their records speak for themselves.
Solid Chalk – Win 4
Exacta 4/7 and Trifecta 4/5,6/7
4th – Ready to Strike (1) had the best final fraction in the field at the distance in January and that was on a GOOD turf surface. Trainer Tom Proctor was 60% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown + Shortenup types in L3T. Chief Grey Cloud (2) drops in class after good effort in FTT race for Scace and she won 22% (52% ITM) with Plain Dropdowns in L3T. Selfless (3) shortens up after posting par final fraction in last and retains Centeno.
Exacta Key Box 1/2,3 and Trifectas 1,2/7,9,11/1,2,3
5th – Stormy Wonder (10) shortens up after above par effort in last. Allen sticks. In last, Beautiful Ride (1) dueled with two to the turn, relinquished the lead in the turn, then came back in the stretch, making up 2 1/2 lengths, and just missed in a game effort.LA Gonzalez has the return call. Wave Pool (9) gets another chance in 2nd try at rock bottom for Mr. Allen.
Win 10, Exacta Key Box 10/1,9 and Trifectas 10/2,4/1,2,4,9
6th – Misfit Manny (8) has been very reliable and drops a notch here for Behrens who won 44% (78% ITM) at odds of 5-2 or less in L2T. Grinnin N Wynnin (4) comes back fast and shortens up for Jolley who goes to Ronnie Allen Jr. from the chute here. Triple J Silver (5) has Behrens bomb characteristics of FBK + No Recent Works. Esprit De Mar (7) drops a notch for Criollo and gets another chance with Vigil up.
Win 8, Exacta Key 8/4,5,7 and Trifectas 8/3,10/4,5,7
7th – Ada Clare (5) had par final fraction in last over GOOD turf course and had the best figs in the field in last two. KOC was 50% ITM with No Change Types in L3T. Clare reunites with Centeno here. Duvessa (7) shortens up after posting above par final fraction in first two turn grass race win. Pablo sticks. Miss Seduction (9) has a couple of big final fractions and gets another chance today.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/7,9 and Trifectas 5/6,8/6,7,8,9
8th – Judy Patootie (6) drops in class in 2nd off Ness claim after posting above par fig in last with Proctor. Ness wins 29% (61% ITM) with FBKs and 41% (71% ITM) in 1st 3 OC in L3T. Pyriteville (1) and Monstrip (4) have been sub-par but reliable. Feliciano was 44% ITM with FBK + Shortenup types in L3T and Arterburn was 68% ITM with RtSs in L3T. Lawyer Jen (5) won with a par fig three races back and drops today but has shown nothing in last two.
Win 6, Exacta Key 6/1,4 and Trifectas 6/5/1,4
9th – El Commodore (2) has raced forwardly in last three and returns to a dash today where the 3YO posted a par fig last summer at the Spa. The Kinsman Stable produced 20% winners and 57% ITM in L3T and El Commodore should deliver today with time running out in the waning season. I’m Good At That (6) has finished up close in turf dashes and bullet work earlier in the week indicates a solid effort today, in spite of Tamargo’s poor record with layoffs. Quick Cash (9) goes for Scace and she has good numbers with FTT types. Double Bullet (10) has been away for a year, drops here and gate work at Calder last week hints at readiness.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,6 and Trifectas 2/9,10,11,12,13,14/6
10th – Zippin Along (3) was close to par in debut and repeat of that effort gets her to the winners circle. Nan’s Lillie (6) improved in both starts and her trainer, my TOM Dale Bennett, won 24% (64% ITM) with Plain Stretchouts in L3T. Tisarose (9) gets Centeno and he may be able to hold her together long enough to be up for a piece on the stretchout today.
Exacta Key Box 3/6,9 and Trifectas 3,6/4,5,12/3,6
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April 11th – Day 79
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Shegoestoeleven (5) comes back in four days for Gerry Bennett and he won 30% (72% ITM) with FBKs and was 50% ITM with StRs in L3T. Big EP in last hints at solid effort on the stretchout. LA Gonzalez sticks. Keep in mind though that PP5 has produced only one winner in the last six race days.
Exactas All/5 and Saver DDs 5/7,10
2nd – Freedom Future (10) has a couple of above par efforts to his credit and Proctor won 23% (59% ITM) with Plain Shortenups in L3T. Switch to RoHo improves chances. Cody Boy (7) has been very reliable and gets another chance in 2nd two turn attempt for 57% ITM trainer Alan Seewald.
Exacta Box 7,10 and Trifectas 7,10/5,6,9/7,10
3rd – Bello Pappa (5) won at 7F in 2008 under Bennett’s care and he was 75% ITM with 2L4-8 + 2S types in L3T. Dazzlin Dr. Cologne (1) has three-peated but with the same figs in every race. KOC is already pushing the envelope here as she wins only 9% with RB + UC types. My Boy Myka’s (7) figs have improved in every start and he had EPs that were well above par in all three starts at the route. Getting up for a piece from off the pace in this one would not surprise. Cataldi has Bridled Quest (3) but she was winless with L4-8s in L3T and the dropdown does not add up to me.
Exacta Key Box 5/1,7 and Trifectas 5/2,4/1,2,4,7
4th – Chelly Graeme (9) gets first start of the season on a FAST track after racing forwardly in all three tries in 2010 and time is running out with only 13 race days left. Chelly had a close to par fig in last try of 2009 season. Centeno sticks with newcomer Robert Drake runner Getcha Twice (3) and that one had the best fig in the field on a FAST track in last. Wynning Philospher (4) has improved in every start and shortens up today. The vast majority of Jolley’s winners come off <30 days rest.
Win 9, Exacta Box 9/3,4 and Trifectas 9/5,7,8/3,4
5th – Promised Mandate (5) has been facing some of the best horses on the grounds and had the best adjusted final fraction in the field in $26K Handicap on 2/28. Mallory Square, runner up in that one is ML favorite in $54K Allowance today in the 6th at Keeneland and the show horse in that race, Winsomeforme, was ITM next time out in an OC $75,000 race. Credentials do the talking in this one.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/3,6 and $1 Trifectas 5/1,4,8,9/3,6
6th – Precious Baby (8) improved in all three two turn starts and drops a notch after well above par, 2nd best effort, in last. Brisk Tide (3) is another that has been improving in every start and she comes back fast for Bob Raymond and he had eight FBK winners in L2T. Kim’s Calling (6) didn’t care for the WET FAST footing in last and had close to par fig in previous (despite trouncing). Scace won 25% with No Change types in L3T.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/3,6 and Trifectas 8/9,10/3,6
7th – In last, Voodoo Swinge (4) lost three lengths while clipping heels entering the clubhouse turn, inched closer from far back in the backstretch, then got rolling in the far turn and was flying in deep stretch to be up in time with the best final fraction in today’s field. Clement won 38% (75% ITM) with RB + UC types in L3T. My JOM Pablo Morales is up again this afternoon. BBs’ Concorde (2) goes in 2 OC for Raymond and he won with 3 of 4 of his claims in L3T. As previously mentioned (in the 6th), Raymond is also great with FBK types. All The Bases (3) is 2 for 4 on the lawn and adds RoHo today.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/2,3 and Trifectas 4/5,10/2,3
8th – Primetta (1) was close to par in 2TS race and is the one to beat. Ring Dancer (2) goes for Cibelli and she is at least 33% ITM with every angle in play here. Tiny Wings (7) is a Gogas firster that had gate work at Oakridge two weeks ago that was nine clicks above par for 4F bullets at that facility and she gets Centeno in the irons in debut.
Exacta Box 1,2,7 and Trifectas 1,2,7/5,9/1,2,7
9th – Thiscatcanscat (6) won at 5F on the grass in N1X company for Dini in 2008 and has had monstrous 2nd Call fractions in last two at 8.5F. Looks like a winner in RtS move today. Bo Diddley (4) had competitive fig in OC32 company in January and may wake up today. E.J. Little Boy (5) goes for McCarthy and she was 44% ITM with NC types in L3T.
Win 6, Exactas 6/4,5 and Trifectas 6/1,12,13,14/4,5
10th – Sir Bacchi (7) was above par in two of three starts at 8.18F and drops this afternoon looking for win number three. Puma’s Bluff (2) and Cho’s Bro (8) went with Sir Bacchi on March 5th and today’s race is a rematch of these three. The maiden winners spice things up but do not change the overall picture much. Griffith has the 2 and he was 45% ITM with NC types in L3T and Bennett has the 8 and he was 52% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s in L3T.
Win 7, Exactas 7/2,8 and Trifectas 7/1,3,6/2,8
11th – Jovial Man (4) drops a notch after posting big EP in last and best fig in the field in previous. Ronnie Allen Jr. sticks from the chute for Ubide. Rock The Mic (9) stretches out after 2nd best effort in last over WET FAST surface. Criollo was 23% ITM with Plain Stretchouts in L3T. Tape Deck (11) should not be summarily dismissed after poor showing in WET FAST seasonal debut. Figs at Suffolk last fall indicate another chance is appropriate here.
Win 4, Exactas 4/9,11 and Trifectas 4/2,3,5/9,11
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April 10th – Day 78
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Ready To Repent (6) had the best EP and fig in the field in last. Mr. Tortora had three winners in eight starts last season. It’s hard for me to imagine him being shut out. LA Gonzalez sticks. Sardina (5) had competitive numbers in last and her %E indicates success at two turn distance. News (11) goes for Gerry Bennett and he won 30% (72% ITM) with FBKs and 20% (43% ITM) with StRs in L3T, but she has had three unsuccessful attempts at the route.
Win 6, Exacta Key Box 6/5,7 and Trifectas 5,6/11/3,5,6,7
2nd – High Brass (3) fared better under the care of Delacour, but Lutchman’s 1 OC was on a WET FAST surface. John’s Pic (6) gets RoHo after “through early” effort first time over and that raises the antennas some. Gato Paso (8) had solid figs in last three and goes for Cibelli who was 60% ITM with RtS + Dropdown types in L3T.
Exacta Key Box 8/3,6 and Trifectas 3,6,8/1,2/3,6,8
3rd – Marchesa (4) has been ITM in 5 of 6 on FAST tracks and her pace and speed have been very reliable. Fits well dropping a notch. HVG sticks. Regal Diamond (1) goes for Deborah Artz and she was 53% ITM with Plain UC types in L3T.
Win 4, Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/2,3,7,8/1,4
4th – Royal Newman (1) had final fraction that was closest to par in only turf start over a FIRM course and dueled for a half mile in the SLOP last time out. Look for improvement from Royal Newman going for high % turf trainer Anthony Pecoraro in this one. Gentle Fred (3) is another with a decent final fraction in only turf start. He goes for the bomb maker Bernard Bramante. Coming Of Age (9) goes for my TOM Dale Bennett and he goes to my JOM Pablo Morales. Bennett is always at threat with firsters, bringing home 73% ITM in L3T.
Win 1, Exacta Key Box 1/3,9 and Trifectas 1/4,10,12/3,9
5th – Harolds Sister (2) was close to par in last and drops a notch today. She also had a par fig in first race of the season. Barcelona Light (4) was up close at the 1st Call in last, shortens up and switches to veteran rider David Amiss in this one. Silver Stripes (12) woke up in last and the lightly raced Croft runner fits the conditions nicely.
Exacta Box 2,4,12 and Trifectas 2,4/1,8,9/2,4,12
6th – Stage Kiss (1) went well in FTT race at the about 9F distance, then lost all chance next time out when Allen lost his footing after racing forwardly into the far turn. Allen sticks, so they get another chance today. Phipps is 6-6 ITM this season after you back out his five OOM FTS finishes. Last season he was 6-8 ITM. It’s hard to argue with numbers like that. So Rosie jumps off the 5 to go with Phipps runner Doe Run (5) and we go with him on blind faith in this one. Clement firster, Sterling Silver (9), had huge work at Payson last month, I’m talking nine clicks above par for 5F bullets at that facility. Clement was 62% ITM with FTSs and 75% ITM with FTTs in L3T. My JOM Pablo Morales is up.
Exacta Box 1,5,9 and Trifectas 1,5,9/2,7/1,5,9
7th – Canadian Jade (1) has been knock, knock, knockin’ in all three starts and is the most logical choice to be up for a piece. Lightly raced horses Hunting Money (8) and Ritmo Criollo (10) both have %E’s that encourage a StR attempt.
Exacta Key Box 1/8,10 and Trifectas 1/3,7,11/8,10
8th – Dixie Queen (7) is likely to be on the lead at the 2nd Call and that worked on Wednesday. Trainer Derek Ryan won 24% (49% ITM) with Plain UC types in L3T and he goes to the best turf rider on the grounds today. Chicalelee (1) looks 2nd best but Bennett won only 15% with 1st 3 OC types in L3T.
Win 7, Exactas 7/2,4,6 and Trifectas 7/1/2,4,6
9th – Stylish Act (2) has been ITM in all three sprints this season, had the best pace and speed in the field in last and Centeno sticks. Goodness Greycious (4) has been very competitive and Allen has the return call from the chute for trainer Derek Ryan who won 32% (59% ITM) with RB types in L3T.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,4 and Trifectas 2,4/1,6,9/2,4
10th – Twice As Beautiful (5) has the only par fig in the field at Tampa and will be very tough with RoHo up. Ness has the Midas touch (there I said it) and both of his runners qualify as my second choice. Ness wins 36% with RB + UC types and was 75% ITM with S + RtS types in L3T. The about 5F turf track record holder, Charlie Papa (3) is always a threat to wake up at Tampa.
Win 5, Exacta Key Box 5/1,3 and Superfectas 5/1/All/3
11th – Dixie Causeway (8) drops off closest to par effort in last and trainer Tom Proctor won 23% (59% ITM with Plain Dropdowns in L3T. Switch to Homeister adds value. Enormiso (6) was extremely wide in the far turn, was eight wide entering, and closed fast from the outside but was too late in debut. Early energy distribution indicates a desire to go 8.5F or longer. Centeno bumps RoHo off this live one.
Win 8, Exacta Box 6,8 and Trifectas 6,8/2,3,9/6,8
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April 9th – Day 77
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Nuff Said PYT (2) goes for Lynn Scace and is an automatic play on her record with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types: 25% Win (67% ITM) in L3T. Tequila’s Desire (8) drops to the bottom for the first time and shortens up after being in striking position at the 2nd Call at 6.5F in last over SLOPPY track with -10 variant. Herkova has to get to the winners circle once this season. Dancing Wonder (10) goes for McBride and she was 44% ITM with FBKs and 50% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L3T.
Exacta Box 2,8,10 and Trifectas 2,8,10/3,4/2,8,10
2nd – Ms. Britches (4) shortens up after having the best fig in the field in last. Glorious Wynn (5) surprised in debut and drops a notch while switching to Allen. Wild Lexi (7) goes for Gerry Bennett and he was 75% ITM with 3TSs and 53% ITM with Dropdowns in L3T. Bennett goes to LA Gonzalez today.
Exacta Box 4,5,7 and Trifectas 5,7/1,3,6,8/4,5,7
3rd – Lake Louise (2) had 5F fig in last that portends victory on the stretchout in 2nd off layoff today. Cocktail Music (3) raced forwardly in open company debut before stopping and should get a confidence booster on the dropdown today. Prized Dream (8) has Lockhart bomb qualities of Distance Change + Showed Something in Last.
Exacta Box 2,3,8 and Trifectas 2/4,5,6/3,8
4th – High Aspirations (8) lacked room until deep stretch in last, then slowly got going late and should appreciate the extra 330ft today. The Granitz runner has the best figs in the field hands down and RoHo sticks, leaving KOC to go to Galviz in this one.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/2,3 and Trifectas 8/5,9,10/2,3,7
5th – Purely Perfect (9) had EP that would be par for 6F at the 2nd Call of 8.5F race in last, two weeks ago and returns to 6F today. She also had one of the best figs in the field on Jan 21st at today’s distance. Looks like a winner on the dropdown in this one. Ryan’s Pic (6) was claimed from the bomb maker RG Smith in February and Harvatt won 25% with Non-shipping L1-3s last season. Ryan had the best fig in the field on off track in December, and showers are expected (at least in the morning) today. In The Wind (7) gets a play off of Stewarts record with FBKs (Win 25%, ITM 75%) and Shortenups (62% ITM) in L3T. The sub-par plodder gets Centeno today.
Win 9, Exacta Key Box 9/6,7 and Trifectas 9/1,3,8,12/6,7
6th – Affirmed Action (3) went the final quarter mile in 22.80 in last (in a par 24.40) and gets the nod here again for me. Hunting Print (3) should show improvement on the dropdown as Delacour won 41% (68% ITM) with dropdowns in L3T. Willsboro Point (8) drops out of the same race and KOC was 45% ITM with Plain Dropdowns in L3T.
Win 3, Exacta Key Box 3/2,8 and Trifectas 2,3,8/4,7/2,3,8
7th – Together Forever (1) has had excuses in last two and may improve here for Chad Stewart who was 62% ITM with Shortenups in L3T. Centeno sticks. Put It Down (3) woke up in the SLOP and it’s anybody’s guess what she’ll do on a FAST surface, but LA Gonzalez also sticks. BJs A Honey (9) had solid figs in last four and is definitely a serious threat here. Little Freebie (10) had two strengtheners and now returns to a sprint. Her figs are competitive.
Win 1, Exacta Box 1,9 and Trifectas 1,9/3,10/1,3,9,10
8th – Baronshill’s (9) final fractions have improved in all three Tampa starts and last was the closest to par in the field. Delacour gets Centeno to ride and that may make all the difference today. Boys Bad (6) goes for Pecararo and he is 48% ITM with RB maiden winners. Arctiz (10) was up for a piece, with a close to par final fraction in last on the grass.
Exacta Box 6,9,10
9th – Drew Star (6) goes for Exposito and he had a couple of layoff winners in L2T. Drew posted the best EP in the field in last and shortens up and drops a notch here. That Works For Me (10) was a contender in both tries with better and should improve today while dropping in class.
Win 6, Exacta Box 6,10 and Trifectas 6,10/2,3,5/6,10
10th – Castlesinthesky (3) had to wait for room while inside in the turn, then exploded to the front after finding a seam, while posting the best fig in the field in last. Titanic Win (8) drops out of disappointing NGS that went over a GOOD turf surface and should show us his best again this afternoon. Classic Mile work last week was 10 clicks above par for bullets at the 4F distance.
Exacta Box 3,8 and Trifectas 3,8/1,5,6,10/3,8
11th – Ponzi (11) had big EPs in both starts on the dirt and goes for Begley, who won 57% (71% ITM) with Plain Shortenups last season. Begley goes to Centeno here. Cool Heart (1) goes for Dale Bennett and he was 73% ITM with FTS in L3T. Tom Monte has had some luck with firsters at Tampa and Knocknock Rocky (6) was three clicks above par for 4F bullets at Gunn Farm last week. Gimmeadrink (7) was respectable in the SLOP first time out. Criollo goes to talented newcomer Noel Vigil today. Sarindi (10) goes for Cibelli and she was 36% ITM with 2 L4-8s and 48% ITM with 2Ss in L3T.
Win 11, Exacta Key 11/1,6,7 and Trifectas 11/10/1,6,7
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April 7th – Day 76
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Don’tfightthefed (9) had above par EPs in both tries at Tampa and should have an insurmountable lead early. Missing Halo (1) hasn’t had a shot in a sprint over a FAST track and gets one today. Trainer Lori Smock was ITM 36% with FBKs and 33% with Stretchouts in L3T. Perfect King (4) has had a series of solid works in preparation for debut and gets Pablo Morales up, but MC8 first time out? Knight Wonder (6) has been sub-par but very reliable.
Win 9, Exacta Box 6,9 and $1 Trifectas 9/1,3,4,11/6,11
2nd – Uniquetry (1) went well first time over at 6F and goes long again today, where she had the best figs in the field. RoHo sticks. Ourflickeringstar (8) made a big effort three back at 8.5F and may wake up here for Wasiluk who was 34% ITM with No Change types in L3T at 13-1. Justoutoftheblue (2) was above par in last and Montalvo has the return call. The 4 & 5 had figs of 21 and 22 respectively (in par 55s) in their last races with up close finishes and that doesn’t say much for them.
Win 1, Exacta Key Box 1/2,8 and Trifectas 1/4,5/2,4,5,8
3rd – Ostin’s Miracle (7), Man of Men (8) and Big Royal Eltish (9) have all had at least two solid efforts this season and could pop at any time. The ML favorite, Mister Alimony (1) goes for Wilson but his stats with these angles in L3T just plain suck: 2L4-8 0%, 2S, 9%, Dropdown 5%. Ness claimed the Gerry Bennett runner Dynaquake (4) again last time out but the 5YO has not impressed this season.
Exacta Box 7,8,9 and Trifectas 7,8,9/1,4/7,8,9
4th – Irish Cove (8) had the best fig in the field in last and deserves another chance in only 2nd try at this rock bottom level this season. Smart Clemmie (5) did not show us her best in first off the layoff and Gonzalez sticks, so I will too!
Win 8, Exacta Box 5,8 and Trifectas 5,8/1,9,10/5,8
5th – Taste (3) had eye popping work that was 14 clicks above par for 5F bullets at Oakridge recently, had above par final fraction in last and goes for Manning who was a perfect 6-6 with L4-8 + S types in L3T. Daniel Centeno has the mount for Manning and the combo won 71% of their starts last season.
Solid Chalk – Win 3
Exacta Key 3/2,5 and Trifectas 3/10,11/2,5,10,11
6th – O’Gulch (1) went evenly in first off the layoff and gets LA Gonzalez in the irons today. Mighty Silver (4) failed as the heavily backed favorite in last and my surprise here for bomb maker Simms. Mandate Image (7) went well in last, switches to Centeno and Wasiluk was 31% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L3T.
Exacta Box 1,4,7 and Trifectas 1,7/6,8/1,6,7,8
7th – Sky Cup (2) had well above par final fraction in first of the layoff and goes for the KOC/RoHo combo that has won or placed in better than 42% of their starts this season. Jaunty Gale (5) goes for Wayne Catalano who is 53% ITM with his runners this season and who wins 44% with 2 OC types.
Win 2, Exacta Box 2,5 and Trifectas 2,5/1,3,4,6/2,5
8th – Runnin Da Fences (1) was ready off the layoff for Ness and has a nice clean record. RB win would be no surprise. Lots Of Tricks (2) goes for Cibelli and she was 73% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Shortenup types in L3T. Band of Thunder (5) finished close up to Tommy’s Memory three back and Tommy tied the Stakes record for 6F on Saturday with a win over 5F track record holder Blind River Fox in the Hilton Garden Inn sprint. Big dropdown today improves chances.
Exacta Box 1,2,5 and Trifectas 1,2,5/4,6/1,2,5
9th – Distorted Promise (1) and Mi Buena Vida (3) have been working well for debut. National Gallery (8) has been working well for return off the long layoff. Eyes A Jewel (9) misfired as well backed firster, now Bennett who won 40% (60% ITM) with L9ups in L3T goes to Centeno off the long layoff. Flip a coin on this one.
Exacta Box 1,3,8 and Trifectas 8,9/8,9/1,3
10th – Bea Precise (6) remains eligible for the N2Y condition despite win in last, so she becomes our exacta key horse in a wide open race. Shezadoubleagent (7) fits and Slomkowski was 54% ITM with Plain Stretchouts in L3T. My Friend Rossario (10) drops a notch after two solid races and Rosie sticks.
Exacta Key Box 6/7,10 and $1 Trifectas 6,7,10/1,5,8/6,7,10
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April 3rd – Day 75
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
Happy Easter to all! Enjoy the three day break.
1st – Beantown (4) returns to a sprint on the dirt where he put up competitive pace and speed in two of last three. Fits best here. Crown Colony (10) has bomb characteristics of Class Change + Distance Change + Showed Something in Last for Lloyd Lockhart and reunites with Rosario today. Unbridled Mon (11) led in the stretch after fast paced 1st Call at 8.18F in last. Drops in class and gets Junior Alvarado who has been tearing it up since arriving on Festival Day.
Exacta Box 4,10,11 and Trifectas 4,10,11/5,9/4,10,11
2nd – Halloran (4) goes for Mr. Alexander he was 68% ITM with Up In Class types in L3T. This lightly raced 4YO has put up some close to par numbers and we’ve got to trust Alexander’s judgment here. Rosie sticks. Metal Jacket (1) has been facing tougher and fits well on the dropdown. Hoho Tow (10) was closest to par in win at the distance last time out and McBride was 54% ITM with RB’s in L3T. Sir Classic Chris (12) goes for Mr. Allen and he was 58% ITM with Plain Stretchouts in L3T.
Exacta Key Box 4/1,10,12 and Trifectas 1,4/5,7,9,12/1,4
3rd – Joyce’s Angel (8) had above par fig at the distance in debut and is the one to beat. Murky (5) flashed speed in debut and should improve after five weeks back in school for Tom Albertrani who is 46% ITM with 2TS types. Sassy Minx (10) goes for Proctor and he won 24% (51% ITM) with maidens in their first three starts in L3T. Proctor goes to Castanon, currently #10 in the jockey standings at Gulfstream, and in town for Florida Cup Day, in this one.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/5,10 and $1 Trifectas 8/1,3,4,6,7/5,10
4th – Good Lord (2) went well above par in last and is the only colt in the field that can say as much. Repeat of that effort puts these away. Thank U Phillipe (3) has been close to or above par in several two turn efforts and returns to 7F where he won in maiden company last summer. Trujillo, #4 jockey at GP and always here on business, has won eight races at Tampa in the last two seasons.
Win 2 and Trifectas 2,3/2,3/All
5th – Scolara (7) last year’s runner up in the Turf Distaff returns to the Downs off solid win in N$Y event at GP and reunites with Centeno today. Kitty Cat Express (1) had par final fraction in GIII event in February and certainly fits here. Eden’s Storm (8) also had a par final fraction in last, an N$Y race at Gulfstream.
Exacta Key Box 7/1,8 and Trifectas 1,7/4,6,8/1,7
6th – Blind River Fox (4) may have set the track record for 5F in last going in 57 flat, but that was with a +17 track variant going for him. Tommy’s Memory (8) on the other hand, had the best 5F fig of the season in his win on January 24th, a 57.2 on a +4. The otherwise perfect Tommy was outmatched in last and shortens up today and should get back to the winner’s circle again in this one. Double or Nothing (2) has been very reliable all season and should get a piece for Bennett who was 72% ITM with RBs in L3T. Sneaking Uponyou (6) is another that has been very reliable and Ness was 75% ITM with Plain UC types in L3T.
Win 8, Exacta Key Box 8/2,6 and Trifectas 8/1,4,7/2,6
7th – Family Foundation (6) had the best final fraction in the field and that was as a 2YO. Trainer Tom Proctor won 28% (52% ITM) with L4-8 + S types in L3T. Breeder/Owner Glen Hill Farm have a good one here and most of Proctor’s winners arise from those connections. Thunder Brew (5) was the best of the three evenly backed favorites in $31K Handicap in February and had par final fraction in that one.
Win 6, Exacta Box 5,6 and Trifectas 5,6/7,8,9,10/5,6
8th – Dances With Ashley (4) was above par in both wins on a FAST dirt surface and will be well prepared off the layoff for the Wolfson barn that wins 28% (66% ITM) in NGS races. Island Time (1) was above par in last but faces tougher today. Jason Servis was 50% ITM with RB + UC types in L2T. Joanie’s Catch (5) is always par and has been racing in Graded Stakes company. Certainly fits on the dropdown in spite of disappointing effort in Sandpiper.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/1,5 and Trifectas 4/2,3,8/1,5
9th – Vanquisher (4) had lightning fast final fraction in Graded Stakes last time out and figures strongly to improve on the stretchout today. The Kinsman connections can win back their own sponsorship money here and you can bet they’ll be trying. Picou (5) finds a softer spot after putting up above par final fraction in last and Wilson was 35% ITM with L + S types in L3T. Allie’s Event (9) has been very reliable all season and goes for Smock who was 42% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + UC types in L3T.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/5,9 and Trifectas 4,5,9/2,8/4,5,9
10th – Trust N Vegas (7) was well above par in last three on the dirt and goes for Rhone who was 54% ITM with dropdowns in L3T. Pyriteville (8) was well positioned before running into a wall of horses near the end of the far turn in last, then went evenly thru the stretch. Certainly should improve today for Feliciano who was 39% ITM with Plain Stretchouts in L3T.
Solid Chalk – Win 7
Exacta 7/8 and Trifectas 7/6,8/1,4,6,8
11th – Stumbling Block (10) has been reaching high lately and now drops to lowest level since December. Final fraction in last was fast. Ness won 31% (68% ITM) with Plain Dropdowns and 32% (62% ITM) with Shortenups in L3T. Excellent Soldier (7) fits well on the dropdown and had par final fraction in last. Tahoe Warrior (8) is another with a fast final fraction in last at two turns and the oldtimer goes for Linda Rice who was 32% ITM on the grass at Tampa in L3T.
Win 10, Exacta Key Box 10/7,8 and Trifectas 8,10/1,4/7,8,10
12th – Uncoupled Cibelli runners look very tough in this one. Nothing Honor (2) drops in 2nd off the claim for Jane who won with 4 of her 5 claims in L3T. She has high numbers with Stretchouts and the Dropdowns too! Tasha Rules (7) has very competitive pace and speed numbers and should put away all but her stablemate. Cibelli wins 25% (56% ITM) with Stretchouts.
Win 2, Exacta 2/7 and Trifectas 2/1,4,5,8,12/7
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April 2nd – Day 74
Please refer to the Official track program before wagering.
1st – Lightly raced Triptane (6) woke up in last at 36-1 for bomb maker Forrest Kaelin. The cat is out of the bag now and time is running out. Kaelin was 55% ITM with Plain Stretchouts and won 18% (35% ITM) with FBKs in L3T. Felix Ortiz has the return call. Classy Witch (1) was well backed after 4 year layoff and put up competitive numbers in debut. Miss Lucy Mae (7) has competitive figs at 6F and should improve while returning to the distance.
Win 6, Exacta Key Box 6/1,7 and Trifectas 6/4,5/1,7
2nd – Ava’s Chief (12) was outgunned in last that went in 89-58. Today’s par is 82-48. Drops here for high % trainer Anthony Pecoraro and gets Ronnie Allen Jr. from the chute. Partnership (2) misfired as the favorite in last and only deserves your action if well backed again this afternoon. Gael Lea (8) passed tired rivals in debut and stretches out today. Hanna’s Secret (11) went evenly in last and gets LA Gonzalez in the irons. Criollo won 16% with 2L + Stretchout types in L3T.
Win 12, Exacta Key Box 12/2,11 and Trifectas 2,12/8,9/2,11,12 (2 must be 1st or 2nd choice in the wagering)
3rd – Indian Courage (7) has been very reliable and is now 7-10 ITM lifetime. He drops a notch and gets HVG in the irons today. Stormin Thru (3) goes for Lynn Scace and she won 25% (38% ITM) with No Change types in L3T. Orthodontist (8) won by five but with sub-par fig, steps up here and should not be the ML favorite.
Win 7, Exacta Box 3,7 and Trifectas 3,7/8,9/3,7
4th – Doilookfatnthese (1) had an honest par final fraction after being in tight in the far turn and the stretch in fast paced turf debut. Ditto for My Elusive Dream (9) in 2TT. Southern Blues (3) had monster final fraction at today’s distance in last but that one went in a snail like pace. Adjusted final fraction in Gulfstream effort was par but pace was slow in that one too! Quiet By Seven (11) put them away in last but has to get in before she can win.
Win 11, Exacta Key Box 11/1,9 or
Exacta Box 1,9 and Trifectas 1,9/2,3,5/1,3,9 if 11 is out.
5th – We Have A Problem (1) goes for Lonnie Arterburn and he won 3 of 6 with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types in L3T. Been Awhile (2) has been close to par in four OST events against better and should go well on the dropdown for Begley who win 27% (36% ITM) with such runners. Five Mill (3) goes for Mr. Alexander and he was 67% ITM (10-15) with L4-8 + S types in L3T.
Exacta Box 1,2,3 and Trifectas 1,2,3/7,9/1,2,3
6th – Debbie’s Fast Girl (4) has won five on the lawn now and goes for Mr. Alexander who wins 23% (56% ITM) with Rightback types. Last three in Starter company have been solid. Fast final fraction in last was over GOOD turf course. Tarva (6) goes for Tom Proctor and he was 60% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s in L3T.
Win 4, Exacta Box 4,6 and Trifectas 4,6/1,2/1,2,4,6
7th – Sea Current (4) drops a notch after three solid efforts and his trainer Michael Zwiesler won 50% (67% ITM) with Dropdowns and 39% with Shortenups in L3T. Rosie sticks here. Macho Muchacho (2) fits on the stretchout and %E concurs. Me Making Money (7) had the best fig in the field in last and shortens up today improving chances.
Win 4, Exacta Key Box 4/1,7 and Trifectas 4/9/1,7
8th – Jib (3) goes for the Hunt-Hunt-Hunt connections (with Willie Martinez up) that brought you the 87-1 layoff/shipper that ran 3rd in the 10th race on 3/24. Jib is capable of putting up par final fractions and fits the conditions well here. Fluid Grace (8) had a solid final fraction in last on a GOOD turf course and should improve here for 50% ITM turf trainer Wayne Catalano. Red hot Pablo Morales is up.
Win 3, Exacta Box 3,8 and Trifectas 3,8/1,4,7/3,8
9th – Diced and Sliced (5) won for 32K in first try at Tampa and goes for Andrade who is 47% ITM at the Downs in L3T. Switches to Centeno today. Judy Patootie (7) had big fig in Tampa debut but that was on an off track, however, Ness does win 41% (71% ITM) with 1st 3 OC.
Win 5, Exacta Key 5/1,2,4 and Trifectas 5,7/5,7/1,2,4
10th – Wotan (3) was beaten in last in a race that went in 107. Wotan’s fig was 88. Today’s par is 67. He posted a par fig in previous. Delacour won 33% (67% ITM) with Plain Shortenups in L3T. Harvest Home (1) goes for Zwiesler and he was 67% ITM with FTTs in L3T and has high ITM % with all the other angles in play here. Belgrave Square (5) had sub-par final fraction over GOOD surface in Tampa debut, but has a couple of solid efforts elsewhere. RoHo sticks.
Win 3, Exacta Box 1,3 and Trifectas 1,3/5/1,2,3,7,12
11th – Shesoffthescale (10) drops to this level for the first time and goes for KOC who won 2 of 5 with Plain 2S + Dropdown types in L3T. Bridesmaid in Silk (11) made big EP in last and shortens up and drops a notch for Negrete who is 48% ITM with Dropdowns.
Win 10, Exacta Box 10,11 and Trifectas 10,11/3,4,5,9/10,11
Click on the “Best Pre-Season Workouts” link above.
Click on the “Feeder Track Stretch Run Lengths (In Feet)” link above.
Click on the “2008-2009 Quirin Style Pars for the Dirt and the Turf” link above.
Click on the “Trainers Around the Circuit” link above to see how our Tampa Bay Downs trainers have been doing during the off-season.
Click on the “Jockeys Around the Circuit” link above to see how our Tampa Bay Downs jockeys have been doing during the off-season.
Click on the “2008-2009 Beyer Style Par Figs and Speed Ratings” link above.
Click on the “2008-2009 Top 50 Trainer Profiles” link above.
Click on the “2008-2009 Par Times for the Dirt and the Turf” above.
Click on the “2008-2009 Bomb Maker Angle Reports” link above.
Click on the “2008-2009 Claiming Trainers ROI Report” link above.
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Click on the link above for my March 2010 – Jockey of the Month
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Click on the “2008-2009 Trainer/Jockey Combination Reports” link above.
Click on the “Quinella Fair Value Table” link above.
Click on the “Exacta Fair Value Table” link above.
Click on the “Daily Double Fair Value Table” link above.
Click on the “Exotic Wager Calculator” link above.
Click on the “2008-2009 Track Profile” link above.
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Click on the “2009 Bullet Workout Par Times” link above.
Click on the “2009 Comparative Track Equalization and Purse Values” link above.
Click on the “Pre-Race Body Language Primer” link above.
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