Summer Festival 2016
Thursday, June 30th
Welcome back! It appears the racing gods will spare the Turf course until Saturday and that mild temperatures will prevail this week.
Race 1 – Seeking Lily showed well above par ES in debut (+8) and has been working very sharply in Ocala for the past month. Veteran conditioner and turf rider get it done here. Stewart is 67% ITM with L1-3 + RtS types and is ITM 11 of 12 in Summer Festival starts. Intentions are not in question.
Exacta Key Box 4/2,5,7
$50 DD 4/5
Race 2 – Delgado has an AEPS of $6582 in 2016 and his owners are on their way to cashing 1M in checks this year. They gotta be well intended with local favorite Sammy Camacho aboard. Boileau is now 10-19 in all Summer Festival starts, including unlikely $45 bomb Lil Miss Tweety last summer. During the regular season he had four Layoff + 1PTB bombs in L2T. Negrete had a rough time in 15-16, but Cedula Ocho (Identity Card 8) went 48 hours after 2.6 inches of rain fell in last. Another chance on the drop.
Exacta Key Box 5/2,8
Race 3 – Stewart has a +$2.10 ROI with FTSs in L2T and is well above 50% ITM here with 3YOs. Boileau strikes at the Summer Festival, but his 4-72 record with Non-layoff Shippers is hard to swallow.
Exacta Key Box 6/1,4
Saver Trifecta 6/5,9/1,4
Race 4 – Schultz, a 4% trainer, is 17% Win with Layoffs on the Dirt. Substraight (2) made par number for a nickel two back and drops today. Camacho was hot in April, winning 16% and was nearly 50% ITM from 54 starts.
Race 5 – Nagle is reliable when the favorite, with Shippers, FBKs and Shortenups and MB was par on the last day of the regular meeting going longer with the rail at 22 feet. This chalky favorite earns our support. Ubide is 4-7 ITM with L1-3 + UC + DtoT types in L8T. Boileau won 3 of 5 with L1-3 + Surface Change + 1PTB types in L4T. Not exactly the strongest MATP angles but we roll the dice here.
$200 WEighted Exacta Key Box 8/3,7
Saver Trifectas 8/All/3,7 to cover
Race 6 – Boileau has the same angle as race 5 going again here. We wheel the exacta in a wide open race.
Exacta Box 2/All
Race 7 – Prohibitive ML favorite doesn’t add up as PTB trainer Machado is 0-12 with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types. Instead, give me M’Lady Mortimer (4) who was close to par on closing day going 8.5F with the rail at 22 feet.
Exacta Key Box 4/5,9,10
Saver Tri 4,5/6/4,5,9,10
Race 8 – This Alpo Stakes leaves us looking for something, anything, that might give us a hint at readiness. Author of “The Backyard Racehorse” and long time losing Tampa trainer Janet Del Castillo has My Secret Place (1) and this mare went 4F in +7 above the bullet par recently. Similarly, Woodard’s piece was close to the bullet par at the Classic Mile on the grass. Santulli is 50% ITM on the lawn here in L5T.
Exacta Box 1,4,7
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Wed. April 27th
1st – Gallardo jumps from the 1 to stick with Ness’ piece. Ness is 12-18 ITM with Plain Shortenups (with 5 wins) at the meeting and historically does better than that (39% Win in L5T). Mr. Bennett was 5-11 Win with L4-8s in December, but is 2-9 since. Spieth has moved his tack to Tdn leaving Gonz without her regular boy. She is 4-31 in 1st 3OC here at the Downs.
2nd – I’m off Arboritanza at 5-2. Rose has not been closer than -5 in all three Tampa starts and he doesn’t have a win angle here.
3rd – Desert Summer (6) won against the bias while the 3 & 4 raced inside in that race and were defeated. Two of three claimed from Matos hit the board in first starts OC and the other missed a piece in a four horse photo for place. Arboritanza is 3-6 Win with Plain Dropdowns and 15-24 ITM with Shortenups. Likeuasafriend (7) has been very consistent.
$200 Weighted Exacta Box 6,7 and $12 Saver Trifectas 6,7/3,4/6,7 ($48)
4th – Vinson is 8-14 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types, 5-6 ITM with TtoDs and 4-4 ITM with RtSs. Sometimes speed figures put us off the scent.
$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,10 and Trifectas 2,10/3,4,5,6,8/2,10 to cover
6th – Fire the Nurse (3) was on the lead in game deep stretch duel before crashing into rail a couple of lengths from the outside of the chute in last. UC move looks right today for Proctor who wins 29% with these. Make what you want of it, but 18-19 winners on the turf recently came from PPs 1-5 and Speed has won six on the weeds in the last four race days.
$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,3 and Saver Trifectas 2,3/4,6,8,9/2,3 to cover