Today’s Selections 2016-2017
Friday, July 1st
The new meeting begins (sort of).
1st – Max Ubide bombs with FTTs, is 56% ITM with Layoff + Surface Change types and is > 50% ITM with 2TSs. His Achilles heel here is the Non-shipping L1-3 (5-77). Stewart keeps his streak at the Summer Festival going with two more ITM yesterday bringing his Festival total to 13 of 14 ITM. Inspector Bill (5) had one of Chad’s best MATP angles going for him in last (UC + Surface Change and FTT) but the turf course was recovering from 2.6 inches of rain just 48 hours earlier. Gets another chance for a piece as Stewart wins 25% with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and is ITM regularly with 2TTs.
Exacta Box 3,5,6
2nd – Manning is 11-19 win with L9up + Shipper + Dropdown types in L10T, and 85% ITM. Enough said.
Pick 3 – 6/All/8
3rd – The jig is up for Deaton. After several years of touting his bomb virtues the crowd has finally gotten on board and his odds have plummeted. (Free Play Wednesday’s bring hundreds to the website each week, but that doesn’t help keep a good thing good. However, I’m at a loss for generating interest in any other fashion.) Bill is now 13-18 ITM with 1st 3 Turf types. This filly raced over a pronounced speed favoring turf course in debut (10 wire-to-wire winners in the previous week) and gets another chance. Must get some action though before the trigger gets pulled (ala in the $20-1 range, mas or menos).
4th – Fuller-Vargas is a 3rd generation conditioner from the Lockhart tribe. Today she has a daughter of leading North American Turf Sire Distorted Humor (22% winners here at Tampa in L5T). She goes to Camacho (who was flawless on the turf yesterday) instead of her regular boy (and husband) JL Vargas and that is the icing on the cake for me.
Saver Tri (if alive in the Pick 3) All/8/4,6
5th – A nice bet against here as the ML favorite Gucciguccigirl (3) goes for Barbaran (1-105 with Shippers and 0-28 with UC + PTB types). RG Smith is 8-15 with FTSs and had a $42-1 FTS bomb at the 15-16 meeting. Camacho is up for us again.
$33 ATB 7
6th – Two more bet against trainers here. Barabaran again (Shipper 1-105 and FBK 2-59 and PTB 4-128) and Schultz (with the O’Connell PTB – Kathy is 7-62 with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown + Shortenup types for an IV of 0.52).
Exacta Box 1,5,8
Saver Trifectas 1,5,8/2,6/1,5,8
7th – Fennessy bombed three times with 1st 3 T types at average odds of $50-1 last season, two of them at the Summer Festival, a year ago today.
Exacta Key Box 8/1,4
8th – We find ourselves reluctantly stuck with Rockhard Lady (3) in the nitecap. We expounded on conditioner Delgado’s virtues yesterday. RL went a couple of clicks above par in final fraction for maiden win. Hennessy’s piece had two MTO scratches recently, hinting at preferred surface. Waz was 0-21 at the last meeting with Shippers (and won on 4% with them in P5T). Williams wins only 5% with 1PTBs, but Monterrey could sew up jockey bonus here.
On second thought, I’m only giving Rockhard Lady (3) the place.