Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper Ticker News: My revolutionary new handicapping book "The Horseplayer's Guide to Advanced Trainer Profiling" is now available in digital format and is free with your paid subscription (you can purchase the PDF version here or pre-order a hard copy). Proudly announcing a comfortable profit at 8 of the last 9 meetings! For 2016-2017, subscriptions will be $100. Paypal $100 to thetbdhandicapper@gmail.com to subscribe or email me at tamselections@gmail.com for alternative payment methods. FREE PLAYS EVERY WEDNESDAY!...
October 3, 2009 – 2:35 pm | Comments Off

FREE SUMMER FESTIVAL SELECTIONS June 30th and July 1st!
50% OFF 2016-2017 SUBSCRIPTIONS! THIS SPECIAL PROMOTION EXPIRES AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE SUMMER FESTIVAL ON JULY 1st. Just click on the subscribe button, make the full …

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Here you can find Bias Reports, Trip Notes & other current Tampa Bay Downs Racing Information.

Historical Handicapping References

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Summer Festival 2016
May 20, 2011 – 5:44 am | Comments Off

Thursday, June 30th

Welcome back! It appears the racing gods will spare the Turf course until Saturday and that mild temperatures will prevail this week.

Race 1 – Seeking Lily showed well above par ES in debut (+8) and has been working very sharply in Ocala for the past month. Veteran conditioner and turf rider get it done here. Stewart is 67% ITM with L1-3 + RtS types and is ITM 11 of 12 in Summer Festival starts. Intentions are not in question.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,5,7

$50 DD 4/5

Race 2 – Delgado has an AEPS of $6582 in 2016 and his owners are on their way to cashing 1M in checks this year. They gotta be well intended with local favorite Sammy Camacho aboard. Boileau is now 10-19 in all Summer Festival starts, including unlikely $45 bomb Lil Miss Tweety last summer. During the regular season he had four Layoff + 1PTB bombs in L2T. Negrete had a rough time in 15-16, but Cedula Ocho (Identity Card 8) went 48 hours after 2.6 inches of rain fell in last. Another chance on the drop.

Exacta Key Box 5/2,8

Race 3 – Stewart has a +$2.10 ROI with FTSs in L2T and is well above 50% ITM here with 3YOs. Boileau strikes at the Summer Festival, but his 4-72 record with Non-layoff Shippers is hard to swallow.

Exacta Key Box 6/1,4

Saver Trifecta 6/5,9/1,4

Race 4 – Schultz, a 4% trainer, is 17% Win with Layoffs on the Dirt. Substraight (2) made par number for a nickel two back and drops today. Camacho was hot in April, winning 16% and was nearly 50% ITM from 54 starts.

Win 2

Race 5 – Nagle is reliable when the favorite, with Shippers, FBKs and Shortenups and MB was par on the last day of the regular meeting going longer with the rail at 22 feet. This chalky favorite earns our support. Ubide is 4-7 ITM with L1-3 + UC + DtoT types in L8T. Boileau won 3 of 5 with L1-3 + Surface Change + 1PTB types in L4T. Not exactly the strongest MATP angles but we roll the dice here.

$200 WEighted Exacta Key Box 8/3,7

Saver Trifectas 8/All/3,7 to cover

Race 6 – Boileau has the same angle as race 5 going again here. We wheel the exacta in a wide open race.

Exacta Box 2/All

Race 7 – Prohibitive ML favorite doesn’t add up as PTB trainer Machado is 0-12 with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types. Instead, give me M’Lady Mortimer (4) who was close to par on closing day going 8.5F with the rail at 22 feet.

Exacta Key Box 4/5,9,10

Saver Tri 4,5/6/4,5,9,10

Race 8 – This Alpo Stakes leaves us looking for something, anything, that might give us a hint at readiness. Author of “The Backyard Racehorse” and long time losing Tampa trainer Janet Del Castillo has My Secret Place (1) and this mare went 4F in +7 above the bullet par recently. Similarly, Woodard’s piece was close to the bullet par at the Classic Mile on the grass. Santulli is 50% ITM on the lawn here in L5T.

Exacta Box 1,4,7

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SPECIAL PROMOTION: 50% off 2016-2017 Subscriptions if you subscribe before the conclusion of the Summer Festival on July 1st. Only $50 for the 2016-2017 meeting! Just click on the subscribe button, make the full $100 payment and I will immediately return the difference to you.

Wed. April 27th

1st – Gallardo jumps from the 1 to stick with Ness’ piece. Ness is 12-18 ITM with Plain Shortenups (with 5 wins) at the meeting  and historically does better than that (39% Win in L5T). Mr. Bennett was 5-11 Win with L4-8s in December, but is 2-9 since. Spieth has moved his tack to Tdn leaving Gonz without her regular boy. She is 4-31 in 1st 3OC here at the Downs.

2nd – I’m off Arboritanza at 5-2. Rose has not been closer than -5 in all three Tampa starts and he doesn’t have a win angle here.

3rd – Desert Summer (6) won against the bias while the 3 & 4 raced inside in that race and were defeated. Two of three claimed from Matos hit the board in first starts OC and the other missed a piece in a four horse photo for place. Arboritanza is 3-6 Win with Plain Dropdowns and 15-24 ITM with Shortenups. Likeuasafriend (7) has been very consistent.

$200 Weighted Exacta Box 6,7 and $12 Saver Trifectas 6,7/3,4/6,7 ($48)

4th – Vinson is 8-14 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types, 5-6 ITM with TtoDs and 4-4 ITM with RtSs. Sometimes speed figures put us off the scent.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,10 and Trifectas 2,10/3,4,5,6,8/2,10 to cover

6th – Fire the Nurse (3) was on the lead in game deep stretch duel before crashing into rail a couple of lengths from the outside of the chute in last. UC move looks right today for Proctor who wins 29% with these. Make what you want of it, but 18-19 winners on the turf recently came from PPs 1-5 and Speed has won six on the weeds in the last four race days.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,3 and Saver Trifectas 2,3/4,6,8,9/2,3 to cover

Today’s Selections 2015-2016 Archive
May 15, 2011 – 5:52 pm | Comments Off

Please click on the “Today’s Selections Archive” link above to view this post.

Nov. 2015 Best Pre-Season Workouts
December 10, 2009 – 8:48 pm | Comments Off

Click on the “Nov. 2015 Best Pre-Season Workouts” link above.

2015-2016 Quirin Style Pars for the Dirt and the Turf
November 20, 2009 – 9:41 am | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Quirin Style Pars for the Dirt and the Turf” link above.

Nov. 2015 Trainers Around the Circuit
November 16, 2009 – 7:45 am | Comments Off

Click on the “2015 Trainers Around the Circuit” link above to see how our Tampa Bay Downs trainers have been doing during the off-season.

Nov. 2015 Jockeys Around the Circuit
November 12, 2009 – 8:27 am | Comments Off

Click on the ” 2015 Jockeys Around the Circuit” link above to see how our Tampa Bay Downs jockeys have been doing during the off-season.

2014 Beyer Pars and Speed Ratings (No longer in use, posted for reference purposes only!)
November 9, 2009 – 8:57 am | Comments Off

Click on the “2014 Beyer Style Par Figs and Speed Ratings” link above.

2015-2016 Top 112 Multiple Angle Trainer Profiles
November 4, 2009 – 3:45 pm | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Top 112 Multiple Angle Trainer Profiles” link above.

2015-2016 Par Times for the Dirt and the Turf
November 4, 2009 – 3:31 pm | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Par Times for the Dirt and the Turf” above.

2015-2016 Bomb Maker Angle Reports
November 4, 2009 – 3:04 pm | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Bomb Maker Angle Reports” link above.

2015-2016 Non-Leader Claiming Trainers ROI Report
November 4, 2009 – 2:45 pm | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Non-Leader Claiming Trainers ROI Report” link above. Claiming stats for the top 112 leading trainers are now found in their respective Trainer Profiles”.

2015-2016 Jockeys ROI Report
November 4, 2009 – 2:38 pm | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Jockeys ROI Report” link above.

2014-2015 Tampa Bay Jockey of the Year
October 24, 2009 – 11:42 am | No Comment

Click on the link above for my 2014-2015 Tampa Bay Jockey of the Year

2014-2015 Tampa Bay Trainer of the Year
October 24, 2009 – 11:36 am | No Comment

Click on the link above for my 2014-2015 Tampa Bay Trainer of the Year

Quinella Fair Value Table
October 23, 2009 – 7:03 am | Comments Off

Click on the “Quinella Fair Value Table” link above.

Exacta Fair Value Table
October 23, 2009 – 6:58 am | Comments Off

Click on the “Exacta Fair Value Table” link above.

Daily Double Fair Value Table
October 23, 2009 – 6:51 am | Comments Off

Click on the “Daily Double Fair Value Table” link above.

Exotic Wager Calculator
October 23, 2009 – 6:38 am | Comments Off

Click on the “Exotic Wager Calculator” link above.

2015-2016 Brohamer Style Track Profile
October 21, 2009 – 11:03 am | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Brohamer Style Track Profile” link above.

2015-2016 Final Fraction Par Times for the Turf
October 21, 2009 – 10:50 am | Comments Off

Click on the “2015-2016 Final Fraction Par Times for the Turf” link above.

Nov. 2015 – Bullet Workout Par Times for Selected Training Centers
October 21, 2009 – 10:33 am | Comments Off

Click on the “Nov. 2015 Bullet Workout Par Times” link above.

Nov. 2015 – Comparative Track Equalization, Purse Values, Stretch Run Lengths and ATM Track Class Ratings
October 21, 2009 – 10:15 am | Comments Off

Click on the “Nov. 2015 Comparative Track Equalization,Purse Values and ATM Class Ratings For North American Tracks” link above.

Pre-Race Body Language Primer
October 21, 2009 – 8:09 am | Comments Off

Click on the “Pre-Race Body Language Primer” link above.

Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper Ticker News
October 16, 2009 – 8:16 pm | No Comment

My revolutionary new handicapping book “The Horseplayer’s Guide to Advanced Trainer Profiling” is now available in digital format and is free with your paid subscription (you can purchase the PDF version here or pre-order a …

Trip Notes
October 12, 2009 – 6:54 pm | Comments Off

Trip Notes with my personal observations can be found here. They will be updated regularly throughout the season. (Click on “Trip Notes” above.)

Bias Report
October 12, 2009 – 6:54 pm | Comments Off

The Bias Report appears here and will be updated regularly throughout the season. (Click on “Bias Report” above.)

Meeting Results (After day 86 of 92)
October 9, 2009 – 8:31 am | Comments Off

Click on link above to read more.