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Home » Today's Selections

Today’s Selections 2015-2016 Archive

Submitted by on May 15, 2011 – 5:52 pmNo Comment

Thursday, June 30th

Welcome back! It appears the racing gods will spare the Turf course until Saturday and that mild temperatures will prevail this week.

Race 1 – Seeking Lily showed well above par ES in debut (+8) and has been working very sharply in Ocala for the past month. Veteran conditioner and turf rider get it done here. Stewart is 67% ITM with L1-3 + RtS types and is ITM 11 of 12 in Summer Festival starts. Intentions are not in question.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,5,7

$50 DD 4/5

Race 2 – Delgado has an AEPS of $6582 in 2016 and his owners are on their way to cashing 1M in checks this year. They gotta be well intended with local favorite Sammy Camacho aboard. Boileau is now 10-19 in all Summer Festival starts, including unlikely $45 bomb Lil Miss Tweety last summer. During the regular season he had four Layoff + 1PTB bombs in L2T. Negrete had a rough time in 15-16, but Cedula Ocho (Identity Card 8) went 48 hours after 2.6 inches of rain fell in last. Another chance on the drop.

Exacta Key Box 5/2,8

Race 3 – Stewart has a +$2.10 ROI with FTSs in L2T and is well above 50% ITM here with 3YOs. Boileau strikes at the Summer Festival, but his 4-72 record with Non-layoff Shippers is hard to swallow.

Exacta Key Box 6/1,4

Saver Trifecta 6/5,9/1,4

Race 4 – Schultz, a 4% trainer, is 17% Win with Layoffs on the Dirt. Substraight (2) made par number for a nickel two back and drops today. Camacho was hot in April, winning 16% and was nearly 50% ITM from 54 starts.

Win 2

Race 5 – Nagle is reliable when the favorite, with Shippers, FBKs and Shortenups and MB was par on the last day of the regular meeting going longer with the rail at 22 feet. This chalky favorite earns our support. Ubide is 4-7 ITM with L1-3 + UC + DtoT types in L8T. Boileau won 3 of 5 with L1-3 + Surface Change + 1PTB types in L4T. Not exactly the strongest MATP angles but we roll the dice here.

$200 WEighted Exacta Key Box 8/3,7

Saver Trifectas 8/All/3,7 to cover

Race 6 – Boileau has the same angle as race 5 going again here. We wheel the exacta in a wide open race.

Exacta Box 2/All

Race 7 – Prohibitive ML favorite doesn’t add up as PTB trainer Machado is 0-12 with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types. Instead, give me M’Lady Mortimer (4) who was close to par on closing day going 8.5F with the rail at 22 feet.

Exacta Key Box 4/5,9,10

Saver Tri 4,5/6/4,5,9,10

Race 8 – This Alpo Stakes leaves us looking for something, anything, that might give us a hint at readiness. Author of “The Backyard Racehorse” and long time losing Tampa trainer Janet Del Castillo has My Secret Place (1) and this mare went 4F in +7 above the bullet par recently. Similarly, Woodard’s piece was close to the bullet par at the Classic Mile on the grass. Santulli is 50% ITM on the lawn here in L5T.

Exacta Box 1,4,7

******************

Sunday, May 8th

Our analytics tell us that 47% of all the visitors to my website a women, so Happy Mother’s Day to all of you, especially the lady in Connecticut who visits thetbdhandicapper.com more often than anyone else!

On the final day of the regular meeting, and on a whim, we went back ten years to note the average odds in the opener and the nightcap on this unique (albeit mundane) card each year.  The average odds in the opener was 2-1 and the nightcap 9-1. It seems that on the way out to the parking lot, the racing secretary wants to remind us all that Tampa can both be beaten and yet is also a reliable source for the big payout. I can’t argue with her on either count. Therefore….

1st – We go to Seventysevenwillow (6) who upgrades from 0-45 Mongan to Cotto today after making close to par numbers in last two. The 5 was 25-1 in a five horse field and finished last and Boileau is 0-19 with 3TSs. KOC, true to form was 1-10 win on F & S, lowering her Final Weekend IV a couple of ticks to 0.78.

ATB 6

2nd – It’s axiomatic that Tampa runners on the dirt must be up close early. Smith is 11-26 ITM with TtoD types. Dacosta is only 4-37 win with PTBs and Silvera is 0-8 here since 2006.

Trifectas All/5/3,7,9 (24 bets)

3rd – Williams is now 6-7 ITM in the final weekends in L5T and he’s 10-35 ITM with RtSs but struggling Marin attenuates my interest. Hank’ster (4) looks soft on ES and doesn’t figure to get a slow early pace today with the 1,7 & 8 gunning it.

Trifectas 7,8/1,4,7,8/1,4,7,8

DDs 7,8/7,8,9

4th – KOC is 50% ITM with this type. Scace and her surrogate Stifano have had 11 ITM on the final weekend in L4T, Wallstreet Insider(8) was well above par in last and speed on the lawn has had an IV of 1.33 in the past month after a long drought. Red hot Centeno goes for veteran horseman Donald Hunt (33% ITM on the Turf in L5T).

Exacta Box 7,8,9

7th – Hernandez Jr.’s tell is the Stretchout. He’s 25-30 ITM with these and despite a sub-par performance at the meeting, still has big numbers with RBs, 13-19 ITM too. Rasta Friend (2) goes for Ward who is 50% ITM with the Plain Dropdown + TtoD and 58% ITM with RtSs. 12-1 is absurd for a horse that already  won for a nickel (while above par) at the meeting and is taking a sensible class drop today. Barbaran is only 3-63 with L1-3s and 0-22 with UC + PTB types.

Let’s go out with a bang!

$350 Weighted Straight Exactas 2/8,10

$15 Saver Trifectas 8,10/2/3,6,7,8,10 ($120)

$0.50 Pick 4 – 2,8,10/All/1,3,5/1,3 ($81)

9th-  Saver DDs if alive in the Pick Four 1,3,5/4,10 to cover

******************

Saturday, May 7th

1st – Persian Poet (2) is above par early and close to par late and that’s the right recipe to bake a winning cake here. Was is 21-33 ITM with FBKs and Garava (4)has been making satisfactory Quirins since the new year began. Ward is 75% ITM with Plain Stretchouts at the meeting but Assist (8) would need a career best effort to win it.

Place and Show 4 and Exacta 2/4

2nd- Ness has a soft weakNess angle here. He wins only 17% (8-46) with L1-3 + S + No Class Change types. As I mentioned yesterday, KOC has a sub-par 0.8 IV in the final weekends of the meeting, but Bettarun Realfast (5) has two solid multiple angles going here:  Layoff + DtoT + Shortenup 9-14 ITM and L1-3 + Shipper + Dropdown + Shortenup 29-52 ITM. Mr. Bennett was 0-24 with RtSs when the meeting began and is 4-38 now. This “R” runner from Averill is dicey.

ATB 5

3rd – Gatis is now 7-10 ITM in the final weekends of the meeting and is 9-13 ITM with No Change types. Dacosta is 19-38 ITM with Plain StRs. Ward is now well above 50% ITM with all these singles: Final weekend 13-20, No Change 11-20 and with PTBs 14-20.

Exacta Box 7,9 and Saver Trifectas 7,9/2,10/7,9

5th – Ward is 18-32 ITM with Shortenps this season at average odds of $7.50-1. Carmen’s Secret (5) was above par in last. Gatis is 18-28 with Surface Change types (including two bombs at the current meeting. Last season he was 4-4 ITM with TtoD + RtS types and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today. I needed the Heimlich Maneuver after Tangled Tart (4) choked on my $400 bet in last, surely will bite me in the ass today if I’m not careful. TT upgrades to Allen Jr. today.

$250 Weighted Exacta Box 5,8 and $25 Saver Trifectas 5,8/7/5,8

6th – Hernandez Jr. is 25-30 with Plain Stretchouts (excluding PTBs). Something went wrong in last. Previous two were par. Another chance today.

Trifectas All/5/1,2,9 (21 bets)

7th – This is a tough race, but 23 of 32 of Raymond’s bombs in recent years have been at related distances to today’s sprint and he bombed three times with them at the current meeting.

ATB 6

8th – Pick 3 – 3,6/1,2,4,5,6,8/4

RE: Destin in the Derby – Looking at my notes Destin went above par +9 Early and +5 Late in the Derby, but two other runners that day went faster early and the same two along with another went even faster late. My variant that day was dragged down by a +1, +5 and a -4 in races 1,2 & 3. Upon further scrutiny, I would be inclined to award Destin quirins of 112, 112 (still above par for a 3YO NGS 110-110, but not so much for the Grade II Derby.

 As you know, I don’t follow the national scene so I have no barometer to assess Destin’s performance versus the other likely contenders, but form my experience at Tampa, a colt with these numbers has had little success in the KD in the past.

But if you like angles, at Tampa anyway, Pletcher won 6 of 9 with Destin’s Kentucky Derby angle (L1-3 + S + RB + UC + Stretchout)!

10th – Mr. Bennett is 71% ITM with Shortenup + No Class Change types, ditto for 3rd off the claim but you can’t be favored when you are 3-46 on the grass lifetime. DB wins 40% with L1-3s when the favorite. Follow the money…

Saver Trifectas All/4/1,7,8

******************

Friday, May 6th

The final weekend of the meeting sees many of the regulars packed up and gone, and lends itself to two types of conditioners: the leaders looking for some easy pickings and the 2nd and 3rd tier types hoping for some softer competition and a chance to earn a couple of checks.

At The TBD Handicapper we strive to answer the questions that most handicappers shrug their shoulders at and guess, and the question of the day (or weekend) is who wins right now, in this moment.

Now after weeks of dry weather, we saw 2.4 inches of rain on Wednesday, and that could put a damper on the best laid plans, but even this circumstance can be effectively dealt with.

Thanks to all our loyal subscribers who have already renewed for 2016-2017. The rest of you are reminded that our special promotion ($50 for the 2016-2017) season remains in effect until the last race on Sunday.

1st – In OC’s for 3YOs, the restricted types have an IV of 1.39. Mr. Bennett is 25-43 ITM with 3YOs this season, is 66% ITM in the final weekend in L5T, and is 52% ITM going 7F to 1Mi on the turf and offers fair value in OSTs.

Stewart wins 37% and 66% ITM in OSTs in L10T and is 11-16 ITM in the final weekend in L5T but is 1-15 with 3YOs at the current meeting.

On the Turf Exacta Box 5,6 and Trifectas 5,6/1,2/5,6

Off the Turf Exacta Box 1,6 and Trifectas 1,6/2,5/1,6

2nd – KOC has an ITM IV of 0.8 (only 15-47 ITM in L5T) in the final weekends. She has runners in races 2,3,5,7 & 9 today.

Gaffney is 2-2 ITM in the final weekends in L3T, both bombs, and he goes to one of Kevin’s highly respected jocks Tommy Turner.

Dacosta is 50% ITM with RBs and Bayshore Boy (5) was well above par in last.

$33 ATB 3 and Saver Trifectas All/3,5/3,5 to cover

3rd – KOC wins with 3YO’s but has the final weekend 0.8 IV working against her. I’m sitting this one out.

4th – Again it’s Gaffney, this time with Centeno up. Denim Blue (4) shortens up after par effort early at 6.5F.

Ward’s piece had the bias going on Jan. 10th, and failed and was sub-par in next two. Looks wrong today.

$33 ATB 4

5th – On the turf, we’ll hit the all button here. At least four trainer’s have a record of getting it done in the final weekends at the last few meetings (including Donnie Jones 2-4 in L3T). KOC is >50% ITM with the Plain Dropdowns and Market Outlook, who beat both the 5 and the 8 won on the Rightback. Galvan is 9-17 ITM with the Plain FBK + Dropdown angle.

Off the turf, Ness is the obvious key. He won 45% of OSTs in L10T and is 12-15 ITM in the final weekends in L5T.

On the Turf – Pick 3 – All/5/3,5,6,9 (40 bets)

Off the Turf – Pick 3 – 9/5,8/3,5,6,9 (8 bets) and Saver Exactas 8,10/9 to cover

6th – Averill’s R Known Fact (5) went + 8 above par in debut and Mr. Bennett wins with 3YOs, 2TS + Stretchout types (11-27) and in the final weekends.

Win 5 and Saver Exacta 8/5

TURF ONLY Pick 4 – 5/3,5,6,9/All/6

9th – Dirt or Turf Inspector Bill (6) offers some value. Stewart is 11-16 ITM in the final weekends in L5T, wins 24% with FTTs here at Tampa, won 4-12 with UC + Surface Change types at 12-1, and is 51% ITM with Shortenups. Hint of speed in last is encouraging. In OSTs he’s 37% Win and 66% ITM in L6T.

Hickey is 57% ITM with all Turf starters in L5T and can’t be left out.

ON THE TURF $100 ATB 6

OFF THE TURF $25 ATB 6

If alive in the Pick 4 or off the turf – Saver Exacta 8/6 and Saver Trifectas All/6,8/6,8 to cover

*****************

Saturday, April 30th

Some folks would rather get the selections early versus late with more detail. I can’t keep everybody happy all of the time, but I can be considerate to all.

1st – DDs 1,6/3,6,10

2nd – DDs 3,6,10/6

3rd – DDs 6/9

4th – $35 Trifecta 9/8/1 and $5 Supers 9/8/All/1 ($35)

5th – $2 Saver Pick 3 All/9/2 ($20)

6th – $2 Saver Pick 3 All/2/10 ($20)

7th – Long To Win (2) shortens up after above par effort for Granitz who is 50% ITM with Plain Shortenups. Loves the Downs and the distance. Reliable HVG is 33% ITM in April.

$8 Trifectas All/2/3,4 ($96)

$5 Trifectas All/3,4/2 ($60)

8th – Ness won 18 of 28 (64% Win) and was 93% ITM with RB + Shortenup + Favorite types over the years. Delacour is 32-55 ITM with this four characteristic angle.

Exacta 10/1

Trifectas 10/5,6,8/1

9th – Exacta Key Box 3/2,7,10

10th – Exacta Key Box 10/12,13 and/or Exacta Key Box 10/7,8,9 if 12 & 13 are out.

*****************

Friday, April 29th

Today could be a day of big opportunities, but down 29% with six days remaining, the question becomes go a bit long or swing for the fences? A combination of both seems to be the prudent course of action.

1st – I can’t get behind Saint Lipsi Chick (1). She went par only once over a fast track, has raced every 12 days for the last three months, Jackson is 4-27 with StRs and wins only 12% with FBKs and this filly tries two turns for the first time today. It’s a weak field but I’d look elsewhere.

2nd – In 1969, Blind Faith gave us “Can’t Find My Way Home”. One of the lines; “Well, I’m near the end and I just ain’t got the time” comes to mind this morning. So it is with blind faith we play Unbridled Mayhem (2) here. Rhone is 75% Win and 100% ITM (8-8) with this four characteristic multiple angle. He rarely goes to other riders (other than Butler) and this is his first try with Cruz up at the meeting. However, Rhone has two going here and Dean pilots the other. Rhone has not missed the board off the claim this season and Miss Impatient (3) was above par early and late in last.

$3 Trifectas All/2/All ($90)

$1.50 Trifectas All/All/2 ($45)

$3 Saver Pick 3 – 2/1,2,6,8,9/7 ($15)

3rd – If Gonz happens to be the favorite, she is 100% ITM with today’s angle (7-7) with five wins.

4th – In a race with several leading conditioners and assorted other scoundrels represented, Huntstown (7) looks right. Last year, he beat multiple NGS placed Balino and $40K Claimer and recent winner at the Big A, More Zen Tea. Since then, the fully matured gelding has shown sharply improved early speed. Other than the TP starts last Christmas, the 5YO has never raced for $8K. A better race condition would be hard to find. Huntstown’s Quirins have been very consistent and Mogge is reliable with Plain Dropdowns and DtoT types.

$100 ATB 7

For ML odds of $6-1 or > double the wager

For $9-1 or > treble the wager

5th – DD 3,8/1,3,7

6th – Rodriguez is 7-9 ITM with Plain FBKs and 65% ITM with Shortenups, was above par in maiden win and Gallardo sticks. Stifano is en fuego but only for Lynn Scace owned runners (see race 7).

Exacta Box 1,3,7

7th – Ward is 50% ITM with 2nd off the long layoff types and Just Jebicah (2) is usually there when ready. Stifano is 8-21 ITM recently with three winners last week (all Scace runners). He’s certainly got the hot hand lately. Padilla is 9-17 ITM with Shortenups.

DDs 2,6,8,9/10

8th – We go to Morales again here aboard Closing Prize (10). Bradley’s piece was par in last two and he is well above 50% ITM with both single angles here.

Saver Trifectas All/10/1,3,4 if alive in the DD to cover

9th – Deaton is now 7-8 ITM with FTTs. The worse they look the better. If we had an “automatic pilot” function, it would give Deaton a piece (in this situation) every time.

ATB 2 for 25% of today’s profit (if any)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections 

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 7***, 4, 5 WT 6, 8, 1 WT 6, 4 WT 5, 6 … $.50 .. $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 7, 4 WT 7, 8 WT 6, 9, 10 WT 1, 9 … $.50 .. $18.00

Best Bet ***

**********************

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Wed. April 27th

1st – Gallardo jumps from the 1 to stick with Ness’ piece. Ness is 12-18 ITM with Plain Shortenups (with 5 wins) at the meeting  and historically does better than that (39% Win in L5T). Mr. Bennett was 5-11 Win with L4-8s in December, but is 2-9 since. Spieth has moved his tack to Tdn leaving Gonz without her regular boy. She is 4-31 in 1st 3OC here at the Downs.

2nd – I’m off Arboritanza at 5-2. Rose has not been closer than -5 in all three Tampa starts and he doesn’t have a win angle here.

3rd – Desert Summer (6) won against the bias while the 3 & 4 raced inside in that race and were defeated. Two of three claimed from Matos hit the board in first starts OC and the other missed a piece in a four horse photo for place. Arboritanza is 3-6 Win with Plain Dropdowns and 15-24 ITM with Shortenups. Likeuasafriend (7) has been very consistent.

$200 Weighted Exacta Box 6,7 and $12 Saver Trifectas 6,7/3,4/6,7 ($48)

4th – Vinson is 8-14 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types, 5-6 ITM with TtoDs and 4-4 ITM with RtSs. Sometimes speed figures put us off the scent.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,10 and Trifectas 2,10/3,4,5,6,8/2,10 to cover

6th – Fire the Nurse (3) was on the lead in game deep stretch duel before crashing into rail a couple of lengths from the outside of the chute in last. UC move looks right today for Proctor who wins 29% with these. Make what you want of it, but 18-19 winners on the turf recently came from PPs 1-5 and Speed has won six on the weeds in the last four race days.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,3 and Saver Trifectas 2,3/4,6,8,9/2,3 to cover

****************************************

Wed., April 20th

1st – Ward is 30-57 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3’s now and Royal Almighty was above par in last dash on off track. Drops to this level for the first time.

Exacta Key Box 1/5,6

Pick 3 – 1,5,6/2,7

2nd – Proctor runner showed above par ES versus open company in debut, despite being cranky at the gate. Tom wins 25% with sharp working types. He goes to Ashley Castranze, who won her very first mount last week here at 4-5 (on Sister Pat).

DDs 2,7/4,6,7

6th – A sub-par field opens the door for Kickn In (2). The 5YO mare showed little going two turns prior to going to Jackson’s barn but last three were competitive enough to go with these. Disregard her turf record. First three were versus open maidens, then tried 8.5F, then went satisfactorily in dash at GPW last fall. Jackson has bombed with DtoT + Class Change types. Worth a shot at long odds.

$33 ATB 2

7th – Glory Style (6) moved way up in class coming out of key race that saw Liar’s Smoker win again, Chique to Chique win, Kristins Persona and Battle Axe run 2nd & 3rd and Admiring Glance run 2nd. That key race went in 120-98, today’s par is 95-93. Poor finishes in last two disguise form.

$50 Win, $100 Place and Show 6

$5 Trifectas 6/All/1,4,5 ($120)

8th- DDs 2,4,5/3

9th – Carolina Dreams (3) made par Quirins on the last day of the meeting last spring, was shelved, then went well in OSTs off the layoff. Had trouble in only Turf start of the current meeting. Switches to Gallardo.

$33 ATB 3

See R8 DD

Saver Exacta 7/3

*************************

Sunday, April 17th

1st – Pick 3 – 1,4/2,4,7/3

3rd – Boyce is 38% W with Non-shipping L1-3 + Shortenup types. Total Energy (TE) for Illusive Fugitive (3) improved in last three as follows: 186-196-200. Today’s TE par is 201. Mr. Bennett’s piece is a bit soft on EP for a pace presser in this company. Inaswagger was never closer than -6 early at the current meeting. Raymond is now 5-146 with UC types. Back to back UC wins appears highly unlikely.

$300 Weighted Exacta Key Box 3/1,7

$25 Saver Tris 1,7/1,7/3 ($50)

The latter half of the card has left me grasping at straws….this is all could come up with…

Race 7 Pick 3 – Saver for R 9 – 5,6,7,9/2,5,9/1,8

Race 8 Pick 3 – Saver for R10 – 2,5,9/1,4,8,9/1,5

Race 9 Trifectas 4,9/1,8/1,4,8,9

Race 10 Trifectas 2,6,8,10/1,5/1,2,5,6,8,10

*****************

Saturday, April 16th

1st – This is a tough race. Moonlit Park (2) looks vulnerable. Figures are on or close to par but Gonz is only 5-46 Win with Stretchouts overall and 1-19 at the current meeting. Reliable Kraftig (5) doesn’t know he’s moving up in class (and some of these couldn’t win an N3L). Perez pilots Fifth Street in first mount of meeting for Feliciano, not a good sign.

Exactas 1,2,3/5

3rd – Loza is a super trainer but he’s not KIng Midas. Loza is only 5-19 with L1-3’s. I’m willing to speculate that Kodiak Moon takes the $$$ but fails.

Wagga Wagga (9) $33 ATB

6th – Thomas is now 50% ITM with Plain UC types. Downing has been top heavy with PTBs this season, but he’s 4-6 ITM with his own runners. Bill had seven Distance Change bombs that showed little in their recent races. He’s 10-33 ITM with PLain RtSs and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today. Cindy was above par at the 2nd Call (6F) in last.

Cindy’s Casino (7) $100 ATB

8th – Mr. Bennett has two overlapping multiple angles here and that’s worth a long look. Gerry is 26-43 ITM with the Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown angle and 29-39 ITM with the RtS + Dropdown angle. A half-sister to J’s Sundance Halo, JS is of the prolific Tampa Sire Mr. Prospector’s line on both sides. Made today’s par in maiden win and may get some moisture again this afternoon.

Conditional $50 Win and Place 5 for 5-2

9th – It’s the two minute warning for Deaton whose only ITM finish was a 2TS + FTT at $4-1. He’s 8-20 with L4-8’s, and strikes regularly on the lawn at long odds.

Sumfloridasunfun (7) $33 ATB

 ******************

Friday, April 15th

A chalky, cheap, bound to be off the turf card is what we get, just when we need to have some good races to wager on. So it goes…

Race 3 – TURF ONLY – If there is such a thing as a “sucker horse” Caged (6) is on his way to the tag. 100% ITM in seven tries and with par total energy in last three. Hot pilot Daniel Centeno (9-30 Win in April) jumps ship for 1-23 “Eight Wide Willie” and trainer Derek Ryan is only 12-106 with Non-shipping L1-3s in L6T. Speed continues to fold on the lawn (now 3 for last 50) for an IV of 0.35 at 8F.

If you bet Caged (win or lose) you’re a masochist and should seek professional help.

El Ganador (The Winner in Spanish) switches to Cruz from winless rookie Marcelle Martins and goes for sophomore conditioner Karen Yanez who is 4-14 ITM on the lawn here at the Downs and Outside In (3) Hinsley’s piece. David is solid with FBKs and goes to the Red Rocket today.

Exacta Box 3,5 and Saver Trifectas 3,5/6,8,9/3,5

Race 5 – TURF ONLY -Hernandez barn finally gets going with 8-13 ITM since Feb. 26th (after an All Star Break of sorts mid-season). The Plain Shortenup is a 32% Win angle for SR Jr. He’s gone to Centeno and FDLC all season but bombed with Ferrer in one of only two tries. However, see Speed comment in Race 3. Potts and Bradley rarely make the Plain FBK move but both are well intended when they do but No More Chillin (5) is the most seasoned of the youngsters.

Harty is 2-26 with FTTs and presents a minor threat for the win position, ditto for Granitz, now 0-20 with 2TTs.

$100 Win 5

9th – TURF ONLY – Griffith surrogates for Pletcher here with Big Paul (10), who remains with Paul Pompa, therefore we utilize the latter’s MATP, 9-12 ITM with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types (and 2-4 Win at the current meeting) but Pletcher hasn’t hit the board with an FTT in the last decade. Delacour is now 90% ITM (26-29) with Dropdowns that are favored and is 30% Win with both singles here. Nations has not missed the board with a Plain Dropdown at the meeting and at average odds of $5.10-1.

Exacta Box 6,7

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 5, 3, 7 WT 8, 6 WT 8, 1, 7 WT 7, 5 … $.50 .. $18.00

 Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 4, 1, 9 WT 2, 8 WT 4*** WT 6, 7, 9 … $.50 .. $9.00

 Best Bet ***

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Wednesday, April 13th

So we are down to the final three weeks of a tough meeting, with our exotics clicking at a paltry rate of 19% (when we need 28% to show a profit). Our Win and ATB plays are doing just fine. The month of January was brutal when we tried to play our way through a month of off tracks and OSTs, but I’m not making excuses just spelling it out for you. Some of our big bomb makers including Connelly, Deaton, Guciardo and Harvatt have not come through (yet)and have cost us dearly.

In any case, our stock price is falling precipitously, so I’m announcing a 50% reduction in next year’s subscription price, with 50% off that price to anyone who subscribes (or re-subscribes) before the end of the meeting (that’s $50) for next season if you pay before May 8th, $100 after that. Just click on the subscribe button, make the full $200 payment and I will immediately return the difference to you.

Our MATP methodology is alive and well, but as always, one has to make the right bets at the right time. There’s still time to get it right, but it’s clearly going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way.

Hey, eight out of nine profitable meetings is nothing to be ashamed of. Don’t delay, get in on this $50 offer while it lasts. Good luck and good racing! JB

Race 1 – DD 3,4/3,7

Race 2 – DD 3,7/1,5,8

Race 3 – Great Aztec (1) was a Maylene Conkey on demand bomb machine before being claimed, but Gonz and O’Connor have been playing it straight and the 8YO has been right there. He was par in last and O’connor is 21-35 ITM with Plain Dropdowns. Bowersock is 7-12 ITM with No Change types, Padilla is 5-6 ITM with same.

Exacta Box 1,5,8

5th- Woodard is 17-20 ITM with plain start favorites and 67% ITM with Plain Shortenups. Cottoneye Caren was 6 clicks above par in last.

Trifectas 1/All/3,9

$50 DD 1/4

7th – This is a good conditions race, with a couple who fit today’s best. I Zoom (4) already won an N1X, won an open $10K claimer (and that’s where you go after and N1X win) and just missed for $12,500 in last. Rodriguez is 22-33 ITM off the claim and is 50% ITM moving UC and on the Shortenup. The 3 & 6 have similar looking profiles.

$200 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/3,6

$7 Saver Trifectas 1,2,5,7/4/3,6 ($56)

9th – This is a classic MATP play. In much the same way that Gonzalez is never trying with FTSs and then pulls the pin next time out, Charles Carey is 0-20 with 1PTBs, but 10-19 ITM with 2PTBs at average odds of $8.50-1. There are no coincidences.

$100 ATB 9

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Wed. March 30th

Actual rainfall for Tuesday was o.2 inches, forecast for 86 degrees on Wed. Should be fast but this is Florida.

1st – OFF TRACK ONLY – Garden Games already won an N1X on an off track and Keiser is a surprisingly good off track rider. Chelsey is 5-22 W and 12-22 ITM on off tracks at the meeting. Bennett’s piece went 104-95 two back and the track was off that day (despite the FAST rating) after a half inch of rain fell the day before, so Wonderful Star is 4-4 ITM on off tracks. Today’s par is 94-94. Ward is 10-14 ITM with TtoDs this season and 50% ITM with Shortenups.

Check today’s workouts for a clue (the pars are 36.10, 48.20 and 61.00) as to the likely variant.

$150 Weighted Exacta Key Box 3/4,5 and $10 Saver Trifectas 4,5/4,5/3

FAST TRACK – Pick 3 – 3,4,5/8/3,5

2nd – Father Dennis (8) has a clean record and Raymond bombs with 18% of this type. 1-24 bug boy carries ten less.

ATB 8

3rd – TURF ONLY – Odd conditions and a short field favor Lavallee Twist (3). In three tries shipping in off the layoff from PID, this 8yo mare won two and was 2nd in the other (all at generous odds). She’s the only runner entered for a tag and would be ineligible otherwise. She’s been working regularly since December apparently waiting for this spot. Guciardo bombed in 4 of last 10 with this multiple angle at average odds of $26-1 but you may be lucky to get 3-1.

The 1 has only one turf start, 2 and 6 won N2Xs in last , 4 is an FTT, 5 skips the N2X condition.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 3,5

Short field wreaks havoc with odds. Our wagers may change here. We’ll see…

4th – Gonzalez is 8-9 ITM when the favorite on the dropdown. Unique Greatness has been as consistent as a clock (albeit sub-par).

Trifectas All/5/2,6

5th – Trifectas All/2/4,10

7th – Bradley is 50% ITM with Plain Shortenups, Smith has a weak but interesting angle here. He’s 3-3 ITM with StR + DtoT + 3TTs. Vickie Oliver has a + 70% ROI here in L5T and Sea Light (4) was par in Tampa debut.

Exacta Box 2,3,4

8th – Rodriguez is 28% W and 69% ITM off the Claim. Gallardo sticks aboard Toastmaster (5). 77% of all of Raymond’s bombs have been at 6F or related distances. Synthesizer (1) has a clean record, but PP1 has an IV of 0.33 in the last month. Patrick is 57% ITM with No Change types.

$50 Win 5, $50 Exacta 5/2 and $15 Trifecta 5/2/1 and $1 Super 5/2/All/1 ($8)

Pick 3 – 5/4,10/3

10th – Woodard is 84% ITM with Plain Starters when the favorite and Cottoneye Caren was par two back and drops in class today.

Win 3 and Trifectas 3/1,4,7,11/1,4,7,11

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Wednesday, March 23rd

PP1 is now 1-67 recently with the only winner being a 3/2 favorite in an OST. I won’t be playing any from the one post until something changes.

Today, we bat for a couple of singles and a couple of home runs. It’s a tough card. Watch the board and PP1 closely this afternoon.

Race 1 – Mr. Bennett is 25% Win and 50% ITM with 3YOs and FTSs in L6T. My Red Cat’s (4) recent poor performances are excused. Raced on off track, previous was against speed favoring bias, four back was debut on the lawn. The Dec. 30th place finish was close to par. Has changed hands though. Delacour did nothing with his 3YO’s earlier in the meeting, but suddenly is 7-14 W and 9-14 ITM recently. Hoot and Holler (6) was two clicks above par early in debut, but was not well bet.

Exacta Box 6,7

Saver Trifectas 6,7/1,4/1,4,6,7

2nd – Wilkes is 70% ITM with Plain FBKs and 15% W with StRs. Burley Blaise (2) had %E that was in the zone for the distance change move (albeit close to the upper limit). Blair is 12-19 ITM on the dirt in L5T. Mr. Bennett is now 12-25 ITM with TtoD types, but Thunder Duke (7) hasn’t shown enough to earn top billing.

Exacta Box 2,3,7

3rd – None of these trainer’s has a win angle here and Proctor has done little with his 3YO’s at the current meeting.

Time for a hot dog and a beer.

4th – Granitz is 12-23 ITM with Plain RtSs. Newcomer Keith Nations is 6-11 ITM with all Shortenups but has not gone to Wales at the meeting.

Exacta 3/1 and Saver Tri All/1,3/1,3

5th – Pick 3 – 1,3,9/5/2

6th – Ness is 22-43 Win with 1OC + Shortenup angle. It would be hard to find a better win angle, and the 2nd choice goes from PP1. Strictly a pure best angles play.

$25 Straight Trifecta 5/1/6

7th – Delacour is 14-35 Win with Plain Shortenups and Towpath (2) went 106-102 in last (today’s par is 96-96). Another best angles play.

$15 Trifectas 2/7,8/7,8 ($30)

Saver Trifectas 2/1,3,9/7,8 to cover

Race 8 – $3 Pick 3 – All/5/8 ($30)

9th – Mr. Bennett (5) is 25-42 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and 25% W and 50% ITM with 3YOs, but this race has bomb potential.

$200 Weighted DDs All/8

10th – Negrete is a 4% trainer with a 20% win angle here. Javier switches to Allen after Te Encuentro (8) (I Find You in Spanish) went 97-87 in last. Looks right on the shortenup.

$7 Saver Trifectas 1,9/8/1,4,9,10 ($42)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5, 10 WT 1, 3, 5 WT 2, 3, 9 WT 5*** … $.50 .. $13.50

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 8, 9 WT 6, 8, 9 WT 6, 8 WT 1, 8 … $.50 .. $18.00
Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 8 WT 8 WT 8 WT 8 … Krazy 8’s ..$5.00
Best Bet ***

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Saturday, March 26th

Yesterday’s variant was +3, -4.5 after the rain came and that’s not slow enough to support our research that says PPs 1,2 & 3 will have an IV of 1.6 when the variant is -6,-5. You can look at today’s works versus the workout par chart for a hint about today’s conditions, but I’m handicapping a no Golden Rail day today. As always, watch and see before diving in. PP1 was 1-3-3 in ten starts yesterday hinting that the weather may have put an end to the drought (no pun intended).

Blessings to all of you at Easter. May your God and the Racing Gods conspire in your favor today!

For assessment value only:

R1 – Normal track outcome 5-6-1

R2 – Normal track outcome 4-5-6-7

R3 – Normal track outcome 6-7-1

R4 – Normal track outcome 7-5-4

So after four, what does it look like? Hopefully business as usual (2 or 3 of 4 from about 1 length off the pace and from PP’s 4-8). If not all bets are off.

Race 5 – Royal Baby (6) takes a technical (or actual) three class drop here by the numbers, skipping C10 N3L and C10 N2L (both lower than the C16 N2L). Negrete upgrades to Allen today who jumps off his girlfriends piece. Royal Baby was par in previous two and both of Negrete’s ITM finishes at the meeting were bombs. Bezara has gotten $50K in checks from just 20 starters in L5T and Angelo M (7) was 4 above par in maiden win. Why not?

$76 Weighted Exacta Box 6,7 and $ 1.50 Saver Trifectas 6,7/All/6,7 ($24)

Race 8 – Mr. Bennett’s piece made above par total energy in last two and is the standout contender. Mr. B wins only 11% with RtS types but tried it once with This Boy’s Sharp (4) and won (but with a 96-100). Fancy Man (5) was above par in first try at the meeting versus N1Xs (103-103) then went well at GP on the stretchout. Jr. won 9-21 with Non-layoff Shippers and was 15-21 ITM. If the 4 is odds-on, a minor conspiracy may come into play.

Conditional Exacta 5/4 for > 2-1

Saver Trifectas 4/5/7,8

Saver Superfectas 4/5/1,2/7,8

Conspiracy tri tickets 5/7,8/4 if you’re so inclined

Race 10 – If PP1 pops again today (in R1-9) Invasion Point (1) is worth a shot. Drops a notch here after solid 2nd behind Steve Came thru who hit the board moving UC in next start. Horses claimed from Ward have won 23% in first couple of tries. Ness has a minor weakness angle here, 22% Win with Non-shipping L1-3 + No Class Change types.

Exacta 1/6 and Saver Trifectas 1/All/6

Race 11 – OFF THE TURF – ATB 5

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Friday, March 25th

Another chance of rain has been forecast for Friday and the PP 1 drought continues (now 1-73 recently).

1st – Straight Trifecta 8/1/5 and Pick 3 – 8/2,4,5/4

2nd – Exacta Key Box 2/4,5

3rd – Saver Trifectas All/4/2,3 if alive in the Pick 3

4th – Win 6

6th – TURF ONLY – ATB 5 Motion is 100% ITM with 3TS + 2TT types in L5T at average odds of $7-1. Tries the angle for the first time today. Very tough company here especially with Delacour crushing it with FTS + FTTs.

Conditional $33 ATB 5 for >12-1

8th – FIRM TURF ONLY – Danly’s Dream (12) finished up close at average odds of $20-1 in first start at the last three meetings (and bombed five times in L2T).

$25 Win, $50 Place and Show 12 and $100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 12/1,7,8

8th – OFF THE TURF – Caleb’s Comet (9) has been very competitive while moving through his conditions, including sharp 108 early on the grass in marathon last time out. Caleb was above par in previous two also. Today’s dirt par is 104-102. Ness has won 45% (77% ITM) in all OST in L10T and wins 40% with Plain Shortenups and Off the Claim. However, Ringold (8) finished 25 lengths back in only start on an off track.

Win 9 and Trifectas 9/1,7/1,4,5,8

9th – Exacta Key Box 7/9,11,12 and DD 7/4

10th – TURF ONLY – Ness was 76% ITM with Plain Shortenups when the favorite in L5T and is 4-8 Win this season. Looks tough and prohibitively short with Gallardo up.

Win 4

10th – OFF THE TURF – Red River Heidi (7) is an above par dueler with the best early speed in this OST and can be bet with confidence.

$100 Conditional Win for >2-1

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Wednesday, March 23rd

PP1 is now 1-67 recently with the only winner being a 3/2 favorite in an OST. I won’t be playing any from the one post until something changes.

Today, we bat for a couple of singles and a couple of home runs. It’s a tough card. Watch the board and PP1 closely this afternoon.

Race 1 – Mr. Bennett is 25% Win and 50% ITM with 3YOs and FTSs in L6T. My Red Cat’s (4) recent poor performances are excused. Raced on off track, previous was against speed favoring bias, four back was debut on the lawn. The Dec. 30th place finish was close to par. Has changed hands though. Delacour did nothing with his 3YO’s earlier in the meeting, but suddenly is 7-14 W and 9-14 ITM recently. Hoot and Holler (6) was two clicks above par early in debut, but was not well bet.

Exacta Box 6,7

Saver Trifectas 6,7/1,4/1,4,6,7

2nd – Wilkes is 70% ITM with Plain FBKs and 15% W with StRs. Burley Blaise (2) had %E that was in the zone for the distance change move (albeit close to the upper limit). Blair is 12-19 ITM on the dirt in L5T. Mr. Bennett is now 12-25 ITM with TtoD types, but Thunder Duke (7) hasn’t shown enough to earn top billing.

Exacta Box 2,3,7

3rd – None of these trainer’s has a win angle here and Proctor has done little with his 3YO’s at the current meeting.

Time for a hot dog and a beer.

4th – Granitz is 12-23 ITM with Plain RtSs. Newcomer Keith Nations is 6-11 ITM with all Shortenups but has not gone to Wales at the meeting.

Exacta 3/1 and Saver Tri All/1,3/1,3

5th – Pick 3 – 1,3,9/5/2

6th – Ness is 22-43 Win with 1OC + Shortenup angle. It would be hard to find a better win angle, and the 2nd choice goes from PP1. Strictly a pure best angles play.

$25 Straight Trifecta 5/1/6

7th – Delacour is 14-35 Win with Plain Shortenups and Towpath (2) went 106-102 in last (today’s par is 96-96). Another best angles play.

$15 Trifectas 2/7,8/7,8 ($30)

Saver Trifectas 2/1,3,9/7,8 to cover

Race 8 – $3 Pick 3 – All/5/8 ($30)

9th – Mr. Bennett (5) is 25-42 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and 25% W and 50% ITM with 3YOs, but this race has bomb potential.

$200 Weighted DDs All/8

10th – Negrete is a 4% trainer with a 20% win angle here. Javier switches to Allen after Te Encuentro (8) (I Find You in Spanish) went 97-87 in last. Looks right on the shortenup.

$7 Saver Trifectas 1,9/8/1,4,9,10 ($42)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5, 10 WT 1, 3, 5 WT 2, 3, 9 WT 5*** … $.50 .. $13.50

 

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 8, 9 WT 6, 8, 9 WT 6, 8 WT 1, 8 … $.50 .. $18.00

 

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 8 WT 8 WT 8 WT 8 … Krazy 8’s ..$5.00

 

Best Bet ***

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Sunday, March 20th

Despite 0.34 inches of rain yesterday, the variant was only 0,-1, therefore empirically putting the dud on the likelihood of a golden rail today. You will recall our January study which hinted that a variant of -6,-5 was a prerequisite of a subsequent golden rail . Nevertheless, we adopt a wait and see posture today. This morning we observe spotty showers again. PP1 is now 0-53 recently.

It’s a bit counterintuitive but the prices will make it worthwhile:

Race 4 – $7 Pick 3 – 1,2,3,6/8/6,7 ($56)

Race 5 – At the last six meetings, Terranova has never brought a horse back in four days (and he’s only brought one other back in less than 14 days), so I’m taking this as a harbinger of some sort. John has solid numbers with the other singles here and is 19-22 ITM with all Shortenups in L6T. Perhaps it’s time for this Ramsey bred to pop (especially on an off or drying surface). Venetian (8) was two clicks below par while beaten by 10 in last and tries the 2nd wrung from the bottom today for Klopp.

$60 Exacta 6/8 and $30 8/6

$3 Pick 3 – ON THE TURF – 8/1,6,7,12/All (up to $96) or OFF THE TURF 8/6,7,8,11/All (up to $96)

If alive in the R4 Pick three after Leg 1, eliminate the 6 & 7 from both tickets and double the wager.

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Sat., March 19th

It looks like Oldsmar is going escape the worst of a big storm that’s moving Northeast in the Gulf today.

Willie Martinez has returned to Tampa after a top 10 finish in the standings at PID in the fall. The jockey colony there looked like a class reunion for Oldsmar alumnae. Martinez earned $1.7M in purses last year.

PP1 on the dirt is now 0-48 in last seven race days.

Race 5 – Jennifer J. (8) was par in two of three on the grass last winter.

Trifectas 2,4,5,10/8/2,4,5,10

Race 6 – After steadying and being pinched back at the break, Barrymore trailed to midway in the far turn then got going, passing five in the stretch and closing well late while widest, making up 7 1/2 in the final stage with a + 3 1/2 final fraction. Makes a habit of being far par early though.

Trifecta Box 2,5,7,10

Race 7 – Carrasco Jr. usually gets it done in 1st 3 OC but gets a pass here in 4th try. In first OC at today’s distance, Classic Blaze (2) went 103-87 (today’s par is 95-94). He went in OST on Feb. 25th while the track was still drying from a 1/2 inch of rain the day before (the track was not fast). Returned to the grass one week ago and went par early after six furlongs before tiring late. The Dropdown, FBK and RtS are three of Victor’s strongest single angles. Switches to Gallardo today.

$100 Win 2

$100 Weighted Straight Exactas 2/5,10,12,(13) ($100)

Race 8 – PP1 is now 0-48 in the last seven race days, so Loza’s piece may be tempting but Danny’s Turbo (1) will be swimming upstream.

Mr. Bennett has cooled off since March 11th with no wins in last 12 tries.

Win & Place 4 for long odds only

Race 10 – Evening Prize (2) made up 4 1/2 in the stretch and was going well in deep stretch but was much too late on the weeds in last. A softer EP appears likely today. Wilkes is 50% ITM  or > with all for singles here. Allen dismounts from his paramour (no pun intended) to stick with Wilkes runner.

Trifecta Box 2,5,7,9

Race 11 -TURF ONLY –  In last, Peggy O’Prado (10) stumbled badly at the break and trailed early, advanced on the backside, was made to wait to get clear in the far turn, then closed well in a big effort that was +6 late despite the rough trip. Previous two were in the zone.

Exacta Key Box 10/4,6,7

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Friday, March 18th

Today we have a lousy card with many question marks and not enough answers. If you have a specific question about a race you are interested in, just ask and I will do my best to assist.

Race 10

Hi Ho Heels (4) went 100-89 in last for Aschinger (today’s par is 85-87). Sienkewicz tried a sprint in first off the claim and Hi Ho went 5 above par. Sienkewicz is 9-16 ITM in 1st 3OC and he wins twice as many on the grass as the dirt.

Wild Aspen Girl (3) was well above par two back (101-93) when kept to pressure by three different runners and held together well for the place. She dug in next time out in a par effort and lost second at the finish (to the 10). Final fractions were above par in last two. 0-51 on the turf Keiser hurts chances, but half of her ITM finishes on the lawn were aboard this mare. McCarthy is 20% Win with no change types.

Johnny Collins appears very infrequently but is 4-7 ITM on the turf here in L5T. Certainly fits here after stealing the place last time out with Freed Spirit (10).

Spieth is off Gonz’s piece, flagging her intentions today. Jackson is 1-20 with StRs. Granitz is 1-22 with long layoffs. Pecoraro is 0-14 with No Change types. Barbazon has an AEPS of $302 lifetime. Blocks piece only lost a couple of lengths after steadying in last.

$200 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/3,10

$5 Saver Trifectas 4/2,5,6/3,10 ($30)

$3 Saver Trifectas 3,10/2,5,6/4 ($18)

$1 Saver Supers 4/7,9/3,10/2,5,6 ($12)

Keep an eye out for smart money in this one. It may speak loudly and require a modification of your play.

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Wednesday, March 16th

We’ve got 1/3 of the meeting remaining and are looking to at least break even with a combination of short winners and a handful of long exotics with a target return of about 5/2 every other day.

1st – Flatter Me Zanja (7) was par in last and Minnock more than doubles his ordinary strike rate with dropdowns and shortenups. This is the first CLM25N2L since Zanja’s last race. She takes a sensible drop and it looks like they have been waiting for this spot.

The 3YOs come out of a glorified N2L and don’t fit versus these.

Conditional $150 Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/1,3 for 5/2 or >

4th – I was on the fence here but can’t find a way to make some cheddar here. Three of the five out of Moonlit Meteor’s (7) last have won or run 2nd and runners claimed from Woodard won 24% in L5T, but Tour Again is also out of that race and KOC charges win 26% off the claim, but Gallardo jumps to ride the (2), a real cheapie and that spooks us a bit. Hernandez Jr. is having a tough season, but should be there.

Pass

5th – Imagine If (7) was close to par but she made +8 and +12 final fractions in last two. Rhone is 11-29 Win with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and is 12-16 ITM with Stretchouts. Rhone switches to Butler today and they are 50% ITM at the meeting. Everything about this one looks right.

Conditional $150 Win for 3/1 or 7/2 or $100 W & P for 9/2 or >

7th – Weekend Appeal (8) won an N1X here last May and hasn’t seen a $16K claimer since last April. Durr bombed twice with this one last season. Gets our action off above par efforts in two of last four on the weeds. Drop in class is big. Durr is better than 24 (0-0-0).

Conditional $150 Win for 7/2 or > or $100 W & P for 6-1 or >

 

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Sunday, March 6th

Today we don’t fancy one particular play, but feel pretty good about most of these, so we’ll spread some $$$ around and hope for the best.

1st – Kraftig (8)was close to par in N2L win and then was ready off the layoff with another close to par effort. He beat the 5 who races with the 3 & 4. Throw out last. Rhone has two >40% ITM angles here.

$7 Trifectas 3,4,5/8/3,4,5 ($42)

2nd – Pom Pom Power (4) won after being beaten by 10 last February here, pulled off the same stunt in August at GP, then tried and missed with it again when 4th on January 1st. Gatis is 22% W and 44% ITM with Plain Shortenups. McCooey looks like he’s given up on Stately Defence (3). Could pop but looks like a Hail Mary to me.

$20 ATB 4 ($60)

3rd – Lady’s Kan (8) has been right there (we dropped a ton on the exacta in the fillies last race, only to be upset by Todd Quast firster). Smith win 18% and is 44% ITM with Plain FBKs. Wilkes is always trying with long layoffs but doesn’t always get it done. He’s 3-21 Win and 9-21 ITM with this type.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 3,8 for > 2-1 ($100) returned $468

4th – Horses claimed from Simms have won 40% and were 75% ITM in L5T and Galvan bombed with one of the only three claims he’s made here at Tampa and he wins 23% with Shortenups.

$60 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/6,7 ($60)

5th – Downing is 5-13 Win with Plain StRs and bombed seven times last year with runners that showed nothing in last.

$20 ATB 5 ($60)

6th – $50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/12,13,14 ($50)

7th – The 5 and the 7 both won on drying surfaces after considerable rain and may react differently to today’s footing. In Hallandale, it was 78 degrees, so the track is assumed to be faster than here at Tampa where we were wearing our coats and gloves. Nevertheless, Tiger Blood (7) was 7 above par over that drying track. Potts has competing angles here. He’s 11-15 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + No Class Change types but does little with TtoDs or RtSs.

I’m Lookin for a Kiss here (5) but I’m not paying for it.

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Saturday, March 5th

Race 1 – Harvatt and Marin are 21-41 ITM at $13-1 odds in P2T and the Plain Stretchout is Harvatt’s signature move (27-58 ITM at $13-1), but by this time last season Marin had already had 23 Harvatt mounts and this season he has had only one. You’ll have to decide for yourself if he’s Harvatt’s secret weapon or if he’s been kicked to the curb.

Race 2 – Cryptic Comet (6) was par in 2 of last 3 and Terranova is 7-20 Win and 16-20 ITM with Shortenups. Ward is 0-10 with L9ups (and 3-35 Win with all long layoffs), but his apprentice jock Ayala is 5-15 ITM in 2016 at Camarero in PR. Those mounts are conspicuously omitted. However, this is a tough track to win in your inaugural local mount.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/2,7 ($100) and Saver Trifectas 1,6/1,6/2,7 to cover

Race 6 – Manning is 10-17 Win and 15-17 ITM with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types, and he’s alright with Surface Changes and Shortenups. On the downside, Houngun’s ITM finishes on the dirt here were way back in 2010 and 3 of 4 were at 7F. I can’t support for more than a piece. Hinsley goes to 3rd stringer here in Keiser, but her only two ITM finishes with David are with Utimate X. My Charming Clyde (9) was visually impressive in last but his numbers were woefully sub-par in last two.

Exacta Box 2,7,8

Race 8 – Mr. Bennett traveled with Fancy Man (2) to Gulfstream on the 25th (I know because I played poker with his wife that night), so I’m confident the colt was well intended in that one. Dale is 44% win and 71% ITM with Non-layoff Shippers. That last race was an N3L/N1Y for a $28K purse. FM beat at least one winner of three in that one. Bennett/Morales team are 33% Win at the meeting.

Chief Envoy (2) remains with Stars Racing so we’ll assume that Dacosta is a Wolfson surrogate. The latter was always well intended when last at Tampa (11-16 ITM in L3T). Dacosta is 10-12 ITM with Non-shipping 2PTB types and is >50% with all the singles, but this one is hard to swallow.

$300 Conditional Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/5,8 for 5-2 or >

Weighted Saver Trifectas 1/All/2,5 (12 bets) to cover

Race 10 – Barbaran has few multiple angles but this is one. He’s 3-5 ITM with RB + UC + StR types.

************************

Friday, March 4th

Race 4 – Herbert’s Lulu made par number while beaten by 12 in last and Galvan is 6-10 ITM with 2S + Dropdown types. Gonzalez is 0-19 with FTS but 6-14 ITM with 2TSs including a $100 bomb. Gonz and boyfriend Spieth collude to throw us off the scent.

$100 W & P 4 ($200)

$10 Saver Trifectas 3,9/2,3,5,9/4 ($60)

$10 Crusher Trifectas 3,4/3,4/2,5 ($40)

$5 Supers 3,4/3,4/9/2,5 ($20)

Total Wager $320

*****************

Wednesday, March 2nd

When I was a young man and my sole handicapping resource was the Morning Telegraph, as I sized up each race, I created the most imaginative and elaborate yarns, in an attempt to make plausible arguments to myself about who should win each race and why.

In 50 years, I’ve evolved a bit. Today, I only play races that are worthy to be played and I know what all the leading trainers (112 anyway) have done for the last five years (or longer) with the exact circumstances that exist in today’s race.

It may be true that every race is unique, but it’s also true that history repeats itself again and again and again…

Race 1 – The #1 Post won only 2 of 36 last week. Carey’s piece #5 has dueling angles in play here. He’s 0-18 with Non-shipping L1-3s, but has bombed with the angle six times recently.

It’s wide open. Pick a number, any number.

Race 2 – Hamm is 6 of 10 W & P with Layoffs on the Dirt. Boyce is 1-15 with RBs but gets two bites at the apple here. Harty is 37% Win with all Plain Starts in L2T. Streamsong #6 made 5F work 8 clicks above the bullet par recently at Palm Beach Downs. Abbott has an AEPS of $5500 in his brief career and should be seriously considered here.

Exacta Box 2,6 and Saver Trifectas 2,6/1,3/2,6

Race 3 – The contenders all have similar numbers but Mr. Bennett is 100-166 ITM with Plain Dropdown + Shortenup types.

Spin the wheel of fortune, they are evenly matched

Race 4 – ML choice Hold Me Tight (8) appears vulnerable as Leonard is 0-21 with StRs. Dominguez has two winning angles here and they are both at long odds. The Red Rocket brings home some big ones.

#2 ATB

Race 5 – DB’s Listen to Mama (6) made a +10 EP versus open two back but didn’t make friends with the mud in next start. Bennett is 17-22 ITM with this angle if the favorite. Surely deserves our support at decent odds which seems likely with overrated Ness in there.

$100 Conditional Win 6 for 2-1 or >

Race 6 – Pecoraro tried this angle (7F to 1Mi on the Turf) eleven times in L10T and has always failed.  Barbaran has an angle here. He is 3-7 ITM with 2TS + 2TT types (and for him anything resembling an angle is a good sign). Sometimes a trainer’s intentions seem abundantly clear. Mr. Bennett is 0-13 with 2TTs but 4-10 W, 6-10 ITM with 3TTs. He tries the latter for the first time at the meeting today. Ward is now 23-41 ITM with Plain Shortenups.

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 8,10 and $5 Saver Trifectas 8,10/3,5/3,5,8,10 ($40)

Race 7 – Pick 4 All/4,5/1/3,6,9,14

Race 8 – Long time subscribers know that our profiles exclude races that were run elsewhere as we believe that trainer’s approach each meeting and track with different objectives. Proctor may be 19% overall with FTTs, but here at Tampa he’s only 4-65. He apparently grooms them here for successful campaigns elsewhere in the spring and summer.

Exacta Box 4,5

Race 9 – Dacosta is 33% W and 50% ITM with Plain Dropdown + TtoD types and 52% Win and 70% ITM with RtSs. Bennett is 55% Win with L1-3 + RB + UC + Shortenup types (he’s on the cusp here).

Exacta Box 1,8 SCRATCHED

Win 1

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5, 6 WT 3, 6, 8 WT 1, 6, 11 WT 5*** … $.50 .. $13.50

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 5, 7 WT 5, 8 WT 1 WT 6, 9 … $1.00 .. $ 12.00

Best Bet ***

 

************************

Wed., Feb 24th

Another nasty, rainy day with 6/10th of an inch expected. Looking for the outside to be good and for them to be OFF THE TURF.

Race 1 – I’m off Father Dennis (2) as Raymond is only 8-155 with Stretchouts in L6T. Bennett is 58% ITM with all starters in L8T, but Mr. Thunder Boy (5) doesn’t seem to get it done. Maybe with the KIng of The Off Track up today again.

Race 2 – Lino Rose (1) has the numbers but Chavez is 0-13 with Stretchouts. Parra’s piece (4) put up big numbers at the distance in last but he’s 3-56 win in L5T (ouch!). Off-track virgins, all but #7.

Race 3 – TURF ONLY – Deaton is the king of the bomb makers on the lawn, with 6-22 win in all turf starts in L5T and 2-3 ITM at $20-1 with FTS + FTTs. Looks like they finally got his number.

Race 4 – KOC is 32% win with Non-layoff Shipper + Dropdowns (and 11-16 ITM this season).Off track ? Delacour is 50% ITM with FTSs on the dirt but goes to Cruz for the first time at the meeting today.

Exacta Key Box 2/6,7 and Saver Trifectas 2,6,7/5,8/2,6,7

Race 5 – TURF ONLY – KOC has the same angle as in Race 4 here and is 7-10 ITM with FTT + 1PTBs, pretty compelling stuff, even for one that looks this bad.

Exacta Box 4,7,9 and Saver Trifectas 4,7,9/2/4,7,9

Race 6 – This one has too many wrinkles for me. Wright is 0-28 with RBs but Broncojo is an above par dueler that was sharp off the layoff. One Buck Roma (5) is always right there. Ness wins has two solid multiple angles here: Layoff + Dropdown 21-36 Win and RtS + Dropdown 27-38 ITM. They all like an off track.

Exacta 6/5 and Trifectas 6/All/5

Race 7 – OFF THE TURF ONLY – MTO Springcourt (11) was close to par in last two and loves the mud. Figures prominently here (despite lack of an angle for Hernandez Jr.) Mr. Bennett is 22-39 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types.

Reluctantly…

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 10,11

$8 Trifectas 10,11/7,9,13/10,11 (up to $48)

Race 8 – Lucky Rascal (8) should romp but I don’t bet $2 to win $1.

Win 8

Race 9 – OFF THE TURF ONLY – No Wedding (AE11) looks alright for Galvan who is a sneaky bastard. He is 7-16 ITM with RBs and 7-15 ITM in OSTs. Numbers were close enough to upset in last two wins.

Exactas 2,7,8/11

****************************

Wednesday, Feb. 17th

With ten racing days in the next two weeks, economizing on time is a necessity. Four days a week is one thing, five is pushing the limit.

1st – Cathcart is 12 (1-3-0) with Layoffs on the Dirt and bombed three times with Shortenups last season. Sharp four panel work at the Classic Mile two weeks back is encouraging sign.

ATB 5

2nd – Speculative Pick 3 – 1,3,5,6,8,10,11/1,6/7,10,11(AE)

4th – Aschinger is 5-9 W and 7-9 ITM with L4-8 + S +Dropdown types and 4-5 W and 5-5 ITM with StRs. He tries both angles for the first time at the meeting here. Gerry is usually ITM with first three turf types. Goes to Vargas here but he does utilize 2nd tier jocks fairly regularly (however JL has done nothing on the grass for several years). Late jockey change is the required missing piece of the puzzle here.

$200 Conditional W & P 10 ($400) if Vargas is replaced by a competent turf pilot.

6th – Hinsley is now 15-30 ITM with Plain Shortenup + No Class Change types and the Pedroza/Hinsley combo is 10-19 ITM at the meeting. It will be Jimmu’s (1) first try over a FIRM turf course at this level. Super trainer Loza almost never misses with firsters.

O’Connell has a solid bet against here. Kathleen is 5-71 with 2S + Surface Change types in L5T.

Conditional ATB 1 (if the 2 is not odds-on and the 1 is >3-1)

Race 8 – Pick 3 – 8,11/10/1,3,9,10 if the 10 (in the 9th) is the favorite in the Race 8 DD probables.

***************************

Wed., Feb 10th

On Wednesday, the competition is tough, but the bomb threat is low and there are several solid bet against types, so we’re looking at a day of high risk and high opportunity. A little racing luck might make all the difference between being the hammer or the nail today.

I like all of these with roughly equal interest, so we’re gonna do something completely different for a change. We’ll start with $200. Wager $50 in Race 1, then 25% of whatever is in the pot after each race. If there’s less than $200 in the pot after race 5 (the halfway point), add another $200. In this way, we’ll (at least) have action all day and our wagers will directly reflect the strength or weakness of today’s fortunes.

1st – Hashtag Giddyup (6) has come a long way since smashing maiden win (at 7F) as a 2YO here at Tampa and comes out of two of the best races of the meeting. Hinsley is 50% ITM with all the single angles in play here (including several bombs). Sienkewicz is now 0-40 with dropdowns. Mr. Bennett is 60% ITM with Plain Dropdowns (103-173).

Exacta 6/2 and Trifecta 6/5/2

3rd – Bradley is 1-35 Win with FTTs, so 3-1 ML on Greenfield (6) is out of whack. Edgar Prado is up for Motion in the 8th, but not here?!?!  Always a maiden claimer, this Motion runner looks wrong to me but Motion is 9-10 ITM with this multiple angle.

Exacta Box 5,11

Saver Trifectas 5,11/3,6,10/5,11

If 11 is out, then 5 ATB

4th – Duke of Luke (9) was necked out by Rambam (winner of 3 of last 4)with close to par numbers. Raced against the inside bias in previous. Horses claimed from Scott are 58% ITM off the claim. Hinsley is 29-48 ITM with Plain Dropdowns. DB is 7-9 ITM with No Change types (see 5), but only 1-12 Win with L4-8s.

Exacta Key Box 9/1,5

Saver Trifectas 9/4,7,11/1,5

5th – Another Hinsley runner with the Plain Dropdown angle and with a 6-1 ML.

Exacta Key Box 3/1,7

Saver Trifectas 3/8,9,10/1,7

6th – Klopp tries the Plain Shortenup with two here for the first time at the meeting. He is 55% ITM with these. Was above par in Sandpiper. Off track trouncing in Gasparilla is forgiven.

Exacta Box 3,7

Saver Trifectas 3,7/1,6/1,3,6,7

7th – In this race, we evaluate who beat whom. Stranahan Dragon (5) beat the beaten favorite (Aribelle) in last and the latter made back to back wins in next two. Stewart has a 25% Win angle here with the Layoff + Class Change + No Distance Change. Stewart’s trio of regulars is conspicuously missing (they ride the 1,3 & 8 here).  This is the first time Stewart goes to Cruz at the meeting. Angel Haze (1) has beaten Anasazi Lass, Stormn’ Jorja and Well Composed and they finished 1,1 and 2 in subsequent starts (albeit versus softer). Colebrook has an AEPS of $5392 and is in the 80th percentile for turf wins in N.A.

Exacta Box 1,5

Saver Trifectas 1,5/8,10/1,5,8,10

8th – ML choice is Motion’s War Order (2) but oddly enough Motion is 0-10 with TtoD types and Prado is only 2-10 win here in L3T. Plesa is 69% ITM with all dirt runners here in L5T.

Exacta Box 1,6

Saver Exactas 1,6/2 (to cover the bet)

9th – Jordan Blair is 25% W and 63% ITM on the turf here in L5T. Prince of Thorns (9) adds the hood and loses his testicles. The crowd may be surprised, but we are looking for big improvement today.

Exacta Key Box 9/11,14 or

ATB 9 if the AEs are out.

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 5, 6 WT 3, 6, 10 WT 9 WT 1, 6 … $.50 .. $9.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 6, 7 WT 5*** WT 1, 2, 7 WT 2, 6, 10 … $.50 .. $13.50
Best Bet ***

******************

Wednesday, Feb 3rd 2016

1st – Tugboat Annie (6) goes for Dominguez and he is now 12-27 ITM with FBK + No Class Change types, but at rock bottom, Annie can’t go any lower….

Trifectas 2,3/2,3,8/6 and Pick 3 – 2,3/2,4/2,6,11 (replace 11 with 3 if 11 doesn’t go)

2nd – Please Don’t Flash (2) made big EP of 104 in first out of open company on GOOD surface in last (today’s EP is 90). Ness is 8-15 Win with 1OC + FBK and horses claimed from Proctor are likely to be there. Bennett’s piece was par in both tries over FAST and GOOD surfaces.

Exacta Box 2,4 and Trifectas 2,4/6,7,8/2,4

3rd – Mr. Wheeler is a 20 year hobbyist trainer with a regular presence here at Tampa. He’s 6-18 ITM on the grass in L5T. This lightly raced 5YO was par in last with a +4 Final Fraction. 10 -1 is more than generous.

Exacta Key Box 2/6,11 (replace 11 with 3 if 11 doesn’t go)

Saver Trifectas 2,6,11/3,10/2,6,11

8th – Super Beau (3) has disappointed me in both starts after big maiden win but returns to 7F today and Mr. Bennett wins 39% and is 69% ITM with Plain Dropdown + Stretchout types. Bennett/Gallardo combo is 40% Win at the meeting. Wilkes has good success off the long layoff but this is the first time he goes to Beato at the meeting and that gives me the willies. Negrete doesn’t get too many live ones, but Royal Baby (4) looks right. Javier is 20-45 ITM at $9-1 with the Plain Stretchout and is 31% ITM with PTBs at $19-1. Change of pace in surface change move with close to par final fig after making solid EP on the grass has my attention.

$100 Weighted Straight Exactas 1,3,8/4 ($100)

$10 Trifectas 1,3,8/1,3,8/4 ($60)

$7 Saver Pick 3 – 4/3,5,6/5 ($21)

9th – R Cat Daddy (6) comes from the power stable of Averill Racing LLC, 32% W and 77% ITM here in 2015. Daddy’s been working sharply for McIntosh, who is no stranger to the winner’s circle here and Gallardo has the mount. The home field advantage goes to Mr. Bennett, whose runner was well above par in both tries at the meeting. Caged (5) was par in every start her last year and Ryan is 5-6 ITM with this angle (Layoff + Dropdown + RtS). The one that was OOM was 4th.

$150 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/3,5 ($150)

$25 Trifectas 3,5/3,5/6 ($50)

$5 Saver Superfectas 6/1,2,7/3,5/3,5 ($30)

*******************

Wednesday, Jan.27th

Race 1 – Leave Er B (4) is just a trio of nods from having five wins. She went 100 early in last (today’s par is 92). Simms has some success with FBKs and is 18-46 ITM at $14-1 odds with UC + Distance Change types. However, the PTB, Mr. Rodriguez has outstanding luck with FBKs and UC types. The filly has changed hands since last week and that gives me pause, but I’m confident they’ll be trying with Allen up today.

$50 Exacta 5/4

$50 DD 5/1

Race 4

Conditional $100 Weighted DDs 8/2,3,4,10 if Mr. Thunder Boy (8) is the favorite at 1 min to post

Race 5 – Jeffries is 56% ITM with 2L1-3 +2S types and 50% ITM with RtSs, but that’s not the whole story. He is #2 on our “Off Sharp 4F Works” report winning 3 of 10 with 5 of 10 ITM (and seven of the ten starters were PTBs).

Race 6 – Bennett has had 240 starts in L3T but only tried the Plain FBK nine times. He won with four and is 88% ITM (8 of 9).  He’s gotta be well intended here. There was a time when an 8-1 ML on a Bennett runner was the kiss of death, but at the last two meetings, 28% of all his ITM finishes were >$5-1

Rambam and Duke of Luke both raced against the bias in last. Ward is 20-33 ITM with the Plain Dropdown + RtS and he’s won 25% and is 50% ITM with Ferrer up at the meeting. It’s now or never for Scott’s piece at rock bottom.

$200 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/4,8

***********************

Wed. Jan 20th

I’m anticipating a chalky day today and maybe that will help put the wheels back on the bus.

Race 1

$5 Pick 3 – 4,5,7/1,6/3 ($30)

Race 3

My House (3) went 96 -90 despite trouncing and today’s projected par is 94-93 (with none of the field making close to par numbers recently). The winner of that one, Il Mulino (a Mott invader from NY) goes in an N2X later in the day today. Hernandez was ITM in 50-70 with 24 Wins for leading owner Amaty. My House is always trying and looks right. Hernandez is 16-21 ITM with Plain Dropdowns.

Conditional $100 Win 3 for > 3/2

Saver Exacta 7/3 to cover the bets

Race 6

Spec Play $1.00 Pick 3 – 3,6,8/2,4,7/1,5,7,9 ($36)

Race 7 Il Mulino (4) raced boxed through the far turn and into the stretch while waiting patiently, got clear at the 1/8th pole then ran by the leader with reserve energy at the wire in last. Il Mulino and Thunder Bay beat Don’t Tell Vanessa in their respective last starts.

$100 Exacta Key Box 4/2,7

$15 Saver Trifectas 2,7/2,7/4 ($30)

Spec Play $2 Pick Four -4/1,5,7,9/8,9/1,2 ($32)

Race 8

$5 Pick 3 – 1,5,7,9/8,9/1 ($40)

Race 10

Delacour’s Exaggerated (1) went at long odds in the Lightning City Stakes and beat half the field in a satisfactory effort, making a 106 that day. Drops in class to a par 100 today and adds Lasix. Delacour has a 64% ITM angle here. Looks right.

Conditional $100 Win 1 for >3/2

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 5, 7 WT 2, 5, 10 WT 3, 7 WT 4, 6, 10 … 50¢ .. $27.00
Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 4 WT 4, 7, 9 WT 4, 5, 8, 9 WT 2 *** … 50¢ ..$12.00
Best Bet ***

*******************************

Wed., Jan. 13th

Pronounced inside bias on Sunday. The rain came down and washed away the remnants of a very persistent post position bias.

1st – Vinson is 79% ITM with Plain Starts here and I’m Really Sumthin (3) was par in both starts at the meeting.

Win 3

2nd – Dale Bennett is 4-5 Win with L1-3 + Favorite types at the current meeting.

If the favorite then Win 2 (Media Time), if not then

Trifectas All/2/1,7

3rd – Dini has only a few multiple angles with 50% ITM strike rates and this is one of them. He’s 11-21 with Plain Distance Change types at average odds of $6.50-1. Watusi (11) was par in both tries.

KOC has a solid bet against here. Kathleen is only 4-53 with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types in L4T.

Lerman’s piece is the wildcard here. Apres Ski (7) is the only claim Lerman made in many years, some of his best angles are represented here and horses claimed from Proctor at Tampa have a history of winning (24% W, 48% ITM). Nevertheless, the long layoff raises eyebrows. Apres Ski raced against a pronounced inside bias in last start and was close to par on the grass two back.

$70 Weighted Exacta Key Box 11/2,7 and $3 Saver Tris 2,7,11/3,6/2,7,11 ($36) or

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 2,7 and $5 Saver Trifectas 2,7/3,6/2,3,6,7($40) if the 11 is out.

4th – Beach Splash (7) popped twice as an above par dueler last season and went 103 early in first try (in a par 98). FDLC jumps off rightback winner Strollingintherain (2) to reunite with Beach Splash and that move speaks volumes to me.

The top three out of Magic Olivia’s (1) last disappointed in next start and both Tampa wins were well below par.

Bruski’s Star (4) loves Tampa but comes out of cheap race last time out (NW 2 in 2015 or NW3 in 14-15). Raymond wins only 4% with shippers.

$50 Conditional W+P 7 for >3-1 or

$50 Conditional ATB 7 for >5-1

Saver Exacta 6/7 to cover the wager.

5th – Big final fractions and a 37% Win strike rate for Delacour’s multiple angle give Special Envoy (8) top billing.

Win 8

$1.00 Spec Play Pick 5 – 8/All/8/2,5,7/9 ($24)

7th – Veteran Tampa rider Victor Santiago returns to Oldsmar aboard Michelle Boyce’s Lovely Loyree (5). Victor was 35% ITM at the 11-12 and 12-13 meetings and is in the top 10 in the standings at Hawthorne recently. Boyce is 89% ITM with today’s angle.

$30 Spec Play Exacta 8/5 and Saver $3 Trifectas 8/All/5 ($18)

$1 Spec Play Pick 3 – 8/2,5,7/All ($30)

***************************

Wed. Jan. 6th

The PP bias persisted on Sunday with PPs 4-8 winning 27 of last 35 on the dirt for an IV of 1.29 (and with some real bombs). PP 1 has seen only one winner in the last six race days.

Race 1 – Mr. Bennett has tried the uncoupled entry move 13 times in L2T. He had both ITM only once. Today, we have a Wesley Ward PTB that remains with Averill Racing and a FTS. Averill is 37-45 ITM here at Tampa in L2T. Bennett is 34-56 ITM with PTBs and 3 for 6 Win this season with this type. R Sniper Jones (3) was sub-par by 10 in first try. As for the FTS, Bennett is 48% ITM with 3YOs and 11-42 W and 22-42 with FTSs. He generally goes to Gallardo or Centeno with well intended FTSs. Santos has had several tries in L3T and was not ITM.

Trifectas 2,5,6,7/3/2,5,6,7 (12 bets)

Race 2 – Horrendous split times for the rest of the field leave us with Yo Carm (3) and Uncle Jerry (6). The latter goes for Harty and he won 46% with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown + Shortenup move in L2T and tries it for the first time at the meeting today. Jerry made lightning fast 4F work last week (a positive sign for Harty runners).

Win 6

Race 3 – Super trainer Loza is now 4-7 W, 6-7 ITM with Maidens in first three starts and won with a FTTer in for $16K on Sunday. Bennett has 67% ITM angle here but is a bit soft with FTTs. Galvan has solid angles here but JE Lopez has not won a race on the grass here in at least three years.

Trifectas All/2,4/2,3,4,6 (36 Bets)

Race 4 – Six of seven of Durr’s recent bombs have been PTBs, including an L4-8 and 3 of 5 of his bombs in L2T belonged to Robert Baker.

Spec Play $10 ATB 7 ($30)

Race 5 – Dacosta has 47% Win angle with the 1 and is 50% ITM with PTBs in L2T (7-14). Potts has two 60% ITM angles here and Connect The Dots (4) was close to par in first try and shortens up today. The other Dacosta piece (9) has three 50% ITM angles going. Ward runner drops 70% in claiming price after up close finish. Looks wrong. Navarro has four 30% win angles here but a 2-20 cheap claimer moving up in class should not be 2-1.

Spec Play $7 Exacta Key Box 4/1,9 ($28)

$1.00 Saver Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/1,9 ($12)

Race 6 – KOC has a winning multiple angle here with five elements (and you don’t see that very often). Kathy is 4-9 Win with L1-3 + S + UC + No Distance Change + No Surface Change runners. Ness is 63% win with RtS + Dropdown types (19-30). Brothersofthetime (5) comes out of an OC for N2Xs and N1Y and did nothing. 95% of all 7F winners here were < 2 1/2 beaten lengths at the 2nd Call last year. IMO Brothers is too late for the party.

 $25 Trifectas 4,6/4,6/1,2 ($100)

$3 Saver Supers 4,6/4,6/3,5/1,2 ($24)

Spec Play $0.50 Pick 4 – 4,6/1,7,8/1,3/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($36)

Race 7 – The 1 made a 105 early in last before giving way (today’s EP par is 89). Shortenup improves the outcome today.

Exacta Key Box 1/7,8

Race 8 – 80% off all of Ryan’s winners in L3T were S/up or S/outs. Big Kick (3) is a big overlay at 10-1. BK comes out of a solid SHCP, Potts is 80% ITM with Plain Dropdowns and runners claimed from the Ramseys in L9T won 44% in 1st 3OC (the third time’s a charm).

Exacta Box 1,3

Saver Trifectas 1,3/4,9/1,3

Race 9 – If you’re alive in the Pick 3 stay seated. If not, beat the crowd to the parking lot (it’s just a figure of speech – the words Tampa and crowd should really never be used in conjunction).

1,2,3,4,7,9

**********************

Wednesday, Dec. 30th

Today’s card is a bit soft on strong angles, but there are only a handful of real contenders.  So with a posture that lacks enthusiasm, we spread $158 around on three races this afternoon

Best luck to our very own Mr. Pick Four (Kevin Pussilano) today. His piece is There’s No Telling (#1) in Race 4.

Race 1 – Harvatt is now 10-13 ITM with today’s angle, but missed in first two tries at the current meeting. Callmewachawant (1)was close to par in first try. Exactas 3,8/1

Saver Win 1 (to cover the bet)

Race 2 – Ward is now 18-25 ITM with this multiple angle, he wins on the dropdown and is 3 for 6 ITM with Eddie Gallardo up this season. Exacta Key Box 2/3,4,9

Race 4

Unlike Dini who hasn’t hit the board with a FBK here in at least three years (he’s also 2-48 with 2Ss), Dominguez is 42% ITM with this type at average odds of $20-1. Schickedanz dumped Maan after poor showing in three horse field two back but McCarthy had him close to par off the short layoff. Brenda is 50% ITM with this type and tries the angle for the first time today.

UPON FURTHER REVIEW I HAVE FOUND THAT MCCARTHY IS 0-32 WITH PTBs IN L5T (only 4 ITM). This changes my outlook (obviously).

$25 Straight Exacta 1/3 ($25)

$10 Trifectas 6/1,3/1,3 ($20)

$0.50 Trifectas All/1,6/1,3,6 ($10.50)

Race 6

Delacour is 90% ITM with today’s angle if the favorite (and figures to be). Warrior’s Dance (1) was above par in last on the weeds. Matos has some solid angles here: 2L1-3 + RtS 7-13 ITM, Dropdown + RtS 6-11 ITM.  Saul also bombs with the once over + distance change angle.

$25 Exacta 1/6 ($25)

$5 Saver Trifectas 2,7,8,11/1/6 ($20)

Race 8

Rodriguez is 70% ITM(14-22) with Stretchouts and 72% ITM in 1st 3 OC. We backed Leave Er B (5) in last and do so again this afternoon. Switches to Centeno today. We also backed Cryptic Comet (8) in last and stick with the filly today. Terranova is 4-5 ITM with 2S + No Class Change types and 6-9 ITM with Stretchouts.

$25 Weighted Exacta Box 5,8 ($25)

$8 Trifectas 5,8/9/5,8 ($16)

$2 Supers 8/10,11/5/9 ($4)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. All (6) WT 1, 6, 8 WT 5, 9 WT 1 … $.50 .. $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 9 WT 5, 8***, 9 WT 2, 5, 10 WT 6, 9 … $.50 .. $18.00
 
Best Bet ***

************************

Wednesday, Dec.23rd

Race 4

Chelsie’s Chapel (9) was one click off par in first try and is our choice by default. At least McBride matches her overall strike rates with the angles. Have at Look at the others:

#1 2S 1-22, #2 2S 1-46, #3 FBK 0-19, #4 2S 0-35, #6 2S  5-117, #5,7 & 8 all sub-par by at least 12 in first try (and no win angles).

DD 9/5,6

Race 5

Ness piece was two clicks inferior to Raymond’s winner in first try of the meeting, but Raymond is 1-42 with RBs and 1-129 with UC types, while Ness is 87-115 ITM with Non-layoff 2S types and wins 39% with Shortenups. Dacosta’s piece looks roughly about the same as the 8 but Dacosta wins nearly three times as many races as Matos with today’s angles.

Belsoeur has all solid stats for five different angles here and he goes to his regular boy Ronnie Allen (go to rider from 2010-2013 at Tampa), but he’s a surrogate today for Vega, a trainer that never has runners here and Didn’t Take It (2) drops to rock bottom in 3rd off the claim. Doesn’t look right. Belsoeur is an alpha male and he gets off making bombs while moving up in class. This move might look right for Woodard, but not Yvon.

Conditional $100 Weighted Exacta Box 5,6 for 5-2 or >

$5 Saver Tris 5,6/8,9/5,6 ($20)

$3 Saver Supers 5,6/2/5,6/8,9 ($12)

DD 5,6/4

Race 6

Hinsley triples his ordinary strike rate with 2S + Shortenup types. David’s been ITM with 15 of 20 at $8.50-1 at the meeting.

**************************

Wed. Dec. 16th

1st – Benne First Baby (3) makes first appearance for last season’s leading owners and super trainer Sandino Hernandez Jr. Hernandez is 100% ITM when the favorite (13-13) and BFB figures to have favoritism with Centeno in the irons.

Maragh is 39% W and 61% ITM with all dirt runners here in L5T with a +90% ROI.

The 1 & 5 have a start under their belts and both were sub-par early and late.

Boileau (6) is 1-35 with L4-8’s.

Over the Cliff is an above par dueler (APD) and we’ve seen that a couple of those have been there already (see Likeuasa friend and Tax Breaker). OTC tends to race at least every 6-8 weeks and is downgraded off the long layoff and Reyes is only 1-20 with RtS types.

Ward has been on fire with 11-21 ITM but is still only 3-33 with L4-8s.

$100 Conditional Weighted Exacta Box 2,3 for $10 or >

$8 Saver Trifectas 2,3/7/2,3 ($16)

$2 Saver Superfectas 2,3/5/2,3/1,7 ($8)

Race 2 – This one is above my pay grade. Ness won 64% with RB + UC + Favorite types (14-22). Woodard has a Ramsey claim and they won 44% at 5-2 in L10T. Super trainer Loza is 80% ITM with 3 of 4 single angles here. Hernandez is also represented and Mr. Bennett’s piece was close to par on the lawn on Opening Day.

I prefer the low hanging fruit.

Race 4

Sobarzo is 75% ITM with FBK + No Class Change types and Total Accounting (8) was just a click below par in first start of the meeting.

KOC’s piece Tour Again (10) gets my attention after dueling in the slop with Gallardo up in last down south. Kathy wins 35% with Non-layoff Shipper + Dropdown types.

Looks like Handsome Dennis (1) has gone wrong. He was well above par in February win, plummeted in class last time out, was not heavily bet and wasn’t claimed. Even a man with one eye should be raising his eyebrows on Dennis.

My beloved Charming Clyde (6) looks like his fabulous career is winding down now. I can’t begin to tell you how many tickets I cashed on ole Clyde.

$52 Weighted Exacta Box 8,10

$8 Trifectas 8,10/3,5,11/8,10 ($48)

Race 5

Kutschman (3) was 4 clicks above par in the best race of the meeting (relative to class) when Super Beau bested N2Ls and N3L’s on the card that day. I’m already convinced that it will be a key race. Feliciano is 33% ITM with 3PTB’s but his own numbers with these angles say no.

A decent bet but not for the fainthearted (of which I am one).

Race 8 and 9

Like Feliciano in race 5, Boileau has a PTB angle that he is 3-4 win with here, but again his own numbers are poor. But I’m not doing all the work for my health so I’m gonna make a little DD with Mr. Bennett’s piece in race 9, Mount Meru (1). Bennett is 7-17 win with this angle and bombed with one at $14-1 already at the current meeting.

$10 Spec Plays

R8 Win 3

R9 Win 1

R8 & R9 Daily Double 3/1

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 5 WT 2, 6, 10 WT 6, 10, 11 WT 1, 3, 5 … $.50 … $13.50

 
Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 4, 7, 8 WT 3, 6, 9 WT 7*** WT 2, 3 … $.50 … $12.00
 
Best Bet***

*****************************************

Wed. Dec. 9th Race 9

Nagle’s piece made +2 final fraction in last start of winter campaign after being claimed for $75K. The granddaughter of Tiznow dueled to the head of the lane in last with good support at the windows and looks right on the dropdown again today. Nagle won 5 of 7 with this type at $5-1 odds in L5T. Centeno is up.

Potts has multiple ITM angles here. 2L1-3 + Shortenup 75% ITM, Shipper + Shortenup 54% ITM, with HVG up 63% ITM (all L5T).

Bradley is dangerous with lightly raced 3YOs on the grass and he goes to my Tampa Jockey of the Year Victor Lebron.

KOC won 20% and was nearly 50% ITM with 1st 3 PTB types in L4T. Ya never know.

McBride tried today’s angle only four times in L5T and never hit the board.

Reardon is a snake. He bombed with two Layoff + UC + Turf types last season. One had 7 wins but the other looked just like this one (had never hit the board lifetime).

Conditional $50 Win 4 for > 8/5
Conditional $40 Weighted Straight Exactas 4/1,2,6 for minimum net return of 5-2 ($100 all combinations)
$2 Saver Trifectas 1,2,6/4/1,2,6 ($12)
$0.50 Saver Trifectas 4/3,10/1,2,6 ($6)

Total Wager $108

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 4 WT 1, 6, 9 WT 4, 5, 7 WT 3, 8 … $.50 .. $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1***, 4 WT 5, 9 WT 1, 4, 8, 9 WT 2, 4 … $.50 .. $16.00

Best Bet ***

***********************************

After a great card on Saturday, business returns to the usual with a card full of Alpo Stakes today.
It’s no coincidence that our FREE PLAY day is Wednesday.

Race 1 – Red Hot Ralph (1) goes for Jeffries, who tried the 1Mi Turf to 7F Dirt move twice in L5T and hit the board both times. Jeffries has gone to Allen when well intended at the last three meetings. Owner John Prete is > 50% ITM lifetime from 141 starts with a $4K AEPS (no small feat). Ralph made the 2nd sharpest 3F work of the pre-season last week. Looks right by all conventional handicapping standards.

Also note that the ML favorite’s trainer (I never look at the ML) is 0-27 with all Layoffs in L3T and that Richardson also went to Allen in L3T but Allen opts to ride the 1.

Conditional $64 Win 1 for >5-2
Saver $1.00 Tri All/1/All ($36)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 5, 6, 8 WT 2, 4, 5, 9 WT 5*** WT 3, 7, 9 … $.50 … $24.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5, 9 WT 2, 4, 6, 9 WT 5, 6, 11 WT 5 … $.50 … $12.00
Best Bet ***

***************************
Wed. July 1st Race 2

Beautiful Tashy (1) is always par and comes of out two key races.

The Feb. 26th race has seen at least three winners and a 2nd since and out of the April 17th race, Julie D was an up close 3rd in a SALW35 at Gulfstream, Mastic has come back to win an MSW at Delaware and Venom Girl and Pat M’s Image (both beaten by Beautiful Tashy on 4/17) were both 2nd at Gulfstream.

This lightly raced filly goes for Super Trainer Sandino Hernandez (61% Win & Place at the last meeting) by way of Hoppel. They scored yesterday with Benny Y Benny for Dennis Amaty (today’s owner). Amaty Racing Stables and Midwest Thoroughbreds, which did not send horses to the Summer Festival of Racing, finish with 23 victories apiece to tie for leading owner honors.

Long time Tampa veteran Pedro Cotto Jr. is up.

This is the only playable race on the card, but odds-on is a certainty here for Beautiful Tashy, so I’m only in for 6-5 or >

If you wanna take a shot at a full Pick 3 wheel in both races 1 and 2 you could get lucky but that’s not my bag.

Conditional $100 Win 1 for 6/5 or >

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
Early Pic 4 …. 1, 5, 6 WT 1*** WT 1, 5 WT 1, 7 ….($1.00) $12.00
Early Pic 4 (1-4) …. 1 WT 1 WT 1 WT 1 ….Aces Wild ….($10.00) $10.00
Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1, 2, 6, 7 WT 3, 5 WT 3, 4, WT 2, 4 …. ($.50) $24.00
Best Bet ***

*************************

Sunday, Feb. 28th

Lots of early action today.

Race 1 – Red Rose Cat has a %E of 51.0 well below the 51.50% demanded of a 5.5 F dash and his EPs were par or above par in last three. Appears very likely to make a successful RtS move.

 $50 Weighted DDs 5/2-6 or Win 5 (go with the better return)

Race 2 – Mr. Bennett is 20% W and 50% ITM in 217 tries with the Plain Stretchout. Woodard is 11-17 ITM with the same angle. Only the 7 and perhaps the 1 (Rambam was sub-par in last two) can be safely tossed, as the numbers look pretty much the same all around and all the trainers are competent with their respective angles.

$100 Weighted DD 2-6/1 CANCELLED

Race 3 – Vestibule (1) was above par for total energy in last two. Stable mate Super Beau may be helping out by controlling the pace and/or taking out other rivals that are sent.

$50 Win 1 and $100 DD 1/5 CANCELLED -$50 so far

Race 4 – In a glorified N2L Claimer, Tribal Message (5) fits the bill. His numbers were above par in last two, he drops three levels in class here.

KOC has a soft bet against here. She is only 5-56 Win with this angle.

$300 Win 5 for 8-5 or > and not alive in the DD

Race 6 -The Market Outlook for the 4 looks bearish to me. Wins the N3L for fun after respectable performances in much higher but runs for the same tag on the RB.

I’d rather get Bakyt (7) for $50 ATB if we are up for the day.

8th – Gotta pass on this race. Ness is 14-22 Win with this angle if the favorite but Dame Street (2) went 63-83 in a par 93-91 in last, creating an untenable dilemma.

****************

Saturday, Feb.27th

Race 1 – If you want some value, Ultrapassando (7) has two 40% ITM angles going. Wakeup would be no surprise.

Race 2 – Bowersock is the most reliable of these. We’ll let the board do the talking here.

Exacta Key Box 6/the other top two choices

Race 3 – Loza is 66% Win and 94% ITM with Shortenup + Class Change + Favorite types (15 tries).

Win 4

Race 4 – El Discreto (6) went 99-94 in last, today’s par is 88-92. Repeat of that performance appears unlikely.

Exacta Box 1,9 (but any combination may work)

Race 5 – This is a PTB bonanza race.

Delacour is 14-21 ITM with PTBs and Bank Float (9) made par numbers in OST last time out.

Chavez is 9-22 ITM with 1PTBs at average odds of $13-1. He made three bombs with L1-3 + S + 1PTB types last season.

$72 Weighted Exacta Box 6,9

$8 Trifectas 3,7,9/3,6,7,9/3,6,7,9 ($72)

Race 7 – Exacta Key Box 7/2,3,5

Race 8 -Big Talkin (5) was beaten by 13 but with a Quirin equal to today’s par. First start was also par.

Win 5

Saver Exacta 7/5 and Saver Tri 6,7/6,7/5

Pick 4   5,7/2,8,9/All/3,9 (144 bets)

*************************

Friday, Feb. 26th

Race 1 – Mr. Bennett puts a for sale sign on Guyana Star (4) after 52 weeks in Starter Allowance (or better) he enters for the N1Y again. Bad sign.

Exactas 3/2,7

Race 2 – Unlike Great Aztec (7) who is only asked to run when the price is right, Pendulum (4) has been close to par in all three. Hernandez Jr. was nearly perfect with all these angles last year but has completely fallen apart this season. I’ve been waiting patiently for improvement but none seems forthcoming. Padilla isn’t exactly crushing it either though.

Trifectas All/4,8/4,6,7,8 (36 bets)

Race 3 – Ward is 8-22 ITM with FTS. Versus this bunch? Why not?

Exacta Key Box 5/1,2,4

Race 4 – Proctor is 18-28 ITM now with 2S + Dropdown types, Delacour is 8-17 with FTS + FTT types and Bradley is 15-26 with Non-layoff 2Ss.

Exacta Key Box 5/1,3,9

Race 5 – Smock is 6-12 ITM with No Change types, has FDLC up and was close to par in last three. All the others have one defect of another. Just needs a break to get home first. Smock is 11-18 ITM since New Year’s Day and 10-14 ITM with FDLC up at the meeting (four winners).

$100 Win 6

$100 Weighted Exactas 6/3,8,9

$5 Saver Trifectas 3,8,9/6/2,3,8,9 ($60)

Race 6 – Gallardo sticks after making a +8 EP with Midnight Man (7) in last. Nations pops with FTTs.

Win 7

Race 7 – Springcourt (5) goes for Hernandez Jr. and he wins 24% with these two single angles here at Tampa and he’s 100% ITM with these if the favorite. Springcourt improved in every start at the meeting but Hernandez Jr. hasn’t hit the board in February and has only one winner at the meeting.

Trifectas 6,7/5/1,6,7,8

Pick 4 – 5,6,7/1.2,3,4/2,4,9/5 (36 Bets)

Race 8 – Mucho Mas Macho (1) takes advantage of major class gap on the dropdown here. Alajwad Dancer (4) was par last spring at 8 years old but Guciardo tells me he’s getting up in age now. Kathy is 4-8 ITM with this multiple angle at 26-1. Would be no surprise to see AJ up for a piece. Trainer’s often obfuscate.

Exacta Key Box 1/2,3 and Saver Trifectas 1/4,9/2,3

Race 10 – Chalky Gray Satellite (5) looks best and Troche is 9-18 ITM with Plain Shortenups.

Win 10

***********************

Thursday, Feb. 25th

Race 1 – HVG jumps ship to stick with Rubies(4) and KOC goes to Figueroa for the first time at the meeting today. An 8 YO mare with 16 LT starts. I just can’t go there.

Pick 3 – 1,2,3,4,6/2,4,7/1 (10 bets)

Race 2 – Pick 3 – 2,4,5,7/1/3,8 (8 bets)

Race 3 – Woodard’s piece made the best numbers in the field in last two. Joe is 3-8 Win and 8-8 ITM with Plain Dropdowns but hasn’t done much off the claim with only 13-41 ITM here recently. Still, this one is compelling while skipping C12, C10 and C8 conditions.

Race 4 – This is the best bet of the day.

Two out of Lady Kan’s (3) race have come back to win (see Ritzi Girl Twelve and Stylish Step, both on the 17th). Smith is 20-43 ITM with Plain No Class Change types. JA Garcia and Smith are 3 for 5 ITM with all starts not involving an FTS, 2TS or 3TS at the meeting (and at average odds of $15-1).

Vinson has solid numbers with the three single angles in play here and Mama Splash (8) went 8 clicks above par in last.

Goose eggs all around for the rest of the conditioners represented here.

$200 Weighted Exacta Box 3,8

Pick 3 – 3,8/2,5/2,4,8

Race 5 – TURF ONLY – Chad Stewart’s lightly raced Replay (5) was very close to today’s par as a 2YO, then par as a 3YO. The gelding was close to par in first try off the long layoff while making a +6 Final Fraction in the process. He beat Darnell’s Spirit in that race and DS was 2nd in OST next out (and DS beat Lock N Roll in that race, who came back to win for Fuller-Vargas). Replay won’t break any records but Stewart has a soft spot for this runner and we’re confident that he’s well intended today. Darnell’s Spirit (2) goes for Hemingway, now 9-17 ITM on the grass in L5T. DS made above par final fractions in two previous on the grass and was close to par in both tries.

Harvatt has gone to Marin 41 times in L3T and he was ITM in 22 at $12-1 odds. Casi Gana (almost wins in Spanish) is a threat if in.

Exacta Box 2,5 and Saver Trifectas 2,5/3,4,9,10,14/2,5

Race 8 – Ness’ piece will take $$$ with Gallardo but I’m not buying. Syd was sub-par in last two and was beaten by some cheapies (see the PP for Jan 30th – Race 7).

Reliable Fifth Street (7) hasn’t shown all his cards yet. Gets a FAST surface to excel today.

Inside speed may be live today as the outside returns to its deep and heavy state while the inside footing is still drying out.

Exacta Box 1,7 and Saver Trifectas 1,7/2,3/1,7

DDs 1,7/3,8,9 (Turf Only)

******************************

Sunday, Feb. 21st

More than anything, subscribers should expect actionable intelligence. Today we have little.

It’s a card full of cheapies and 3YOs, always dangerous propositions. The trainers may be the puppet masters in our multiple angle profiling game, but that assumes that there are strings to be pulled and manipulated. With these types, more often than not, the trainer is most often scratching his/her head, guessing at what to try or do next.

Race 7 is a nice SALW6250 but I must admit utter bewilderment.

The most likely one to be right there today is Proctor’s piece in Race 9, Blip n’ Th Bye (2). Tom is 13-17 ITM when the favorite with this angle, Wins 25% with sharp working 4F or longer types in L10T, is 65% ITM with all Stretchouts. Furthermore, CD shippers have an IV of 1.60 in L5T.

Anyway, I see no way to make a profit here except for the win, but I don’t play 8/5 shots as a general matter.

Footnotes for this card:

R3 – McCullough is 0-27 with RtS types

R4 – KOC is 0-16 with this angle

R6 – ML choice from Dini looks wrong. Mike is 0-19 with this angle.

R8 – KOC is only 3-31 Win with the 7F to TMi move in L10T.

R10 – Arterburn was 6-11 with FTTs in our last profile. Ward acts as surrogate here. Owner Harold Queen is 52% ITM with all starters lifetime, but Mr. Bennett wins only 7% with FTTs.

Good luck and good racing!

JB

***************************

Saturday, Feb. 20th

1st – When Super Beau put up big numbers in Dec. 2nd win, I proffered that it would be key a race, then after being disappointed a couple of times, I softened my position, but I was looking for answers in the wrong place.  When one expands the circle of interest to include GP, there have been three winners and two 2nds out of the Super Beau race (only the 7th finisher out of that race has subsequently failed). Inspector Bill (10) was above par in the Dec. 2nd race, then chased 4 wide against a strong inside bias on Jan. 8th. Gets another chance today.

Mr. Bennett is 99-165 with Plain Dropdowns, but why drop to rock bottom after picking up checks in 4 of last 5 after $25K claim?!?!

Exacta Key Box 10/5,6 and Saver Trifectas 7,10/7,10/2,3,5,6,11

3rd – This is a weak field that is sure to be subpar, but Rio Grey (4) has been close to today’s projected par, Ward wins 16% with Plain Stretchouts and he’s bombed 20 times with Distance Change types in L2T.

$33 ATB 4 ($99) if not the 1st or 2nd choice

4th – Joyce Kielty’s 11YO turf dash monster Hold On Smokey (9 wins and 21 of 24 ITM here since August 2010), can never be left off the ticket, but never going longer, creating a dilemma for us here. Kielty appears to wanna give Smokey a race off the layoff, but ya never know. Works have been sharp and you know what Gino says: “A mile a on the turf at Tampa is a sprint”.

Proctor is 13-17 ITM with this angle if the favorite and is 29-45 with S + Shortenup types.

Scott has a handful of > 50% singles but no multiple angle here.

Exacta Key Box 2/3,8 and Saver Trifectas 2,3,8/5/2,3,8

5th – Barbaran’ piece, Win Exchange (6) offers some value. This 5% trainer pops with L9ups and won 13% (25% ITM) with the T 1 Mile to 7F move. All his singles are at least 25% ITM. Last off-facility work was +9 above the bullet par. Winless Camacho tempers enthusiasm but he bombed for Barbaran once at the meeting (in six tries).

Mr. Bennett is 75% ITM with this angle and tries it for the first time at the meeting. Mount Meru showed above par total energy in last.

$50 Exacta Box 6,10 ($100) and $3 Trifectas 6,10/2,5,8,11,12/6,10 ($30)

10th – In last, My Cowboy appeared to be eased throughout the stretch after being up close and in tight between horses entering after making a +16 EP. Switches to top 100 earner in NA for the last five years Elvis Trujillo. Lynch is 4-13 W & P here on the grass in L5T.

Brown has not missed the board with a shortenup here in five years. Owner Michael Dubb is a family friend, entrepreneur and philanthropist in New York. He’s 50% ITM with all starters in 1600 starts lifetime and always a top earner in N.A.

The 7 that scratched was the non-value part of this play, and that’s the good news.

The 1 is the favorite in the DD probables and that gives me the creeps, the 2 is getting serious action too, while my 3 is ice cold. I’m going off this exotic….

Conditional $25 ATB 6 for >6-1

**********************

Friday, Feb. 19th

Race 7 – For years Guciardo has had long layoffs ready (at big prices) but she’s 0-5 with them this season. She’s 4-8 ITM with this specific four characteristic angle in L6T (at $26-1). Reliable HVG can’t seem to find the circle either at the current meeting. They are both long overdue. Kings Tuesday (1) raced for $19K in last four at PID (same purse as today) so I’m not calling this a class change. She’s always right there and beat Bennett’s Guyana Star ($200K LT) in last. GS was 2nd last weekend here. She won in this class with par numbers last year (Jan. 30th). Gallardo jumps to stick with Ness runner and that’s too bad for him.

Ness’ piece won in the only turf race in four race days on Jan. 23rd with -20,-16 numbers but there is no variant to be had so we’ve put a big question mark on Issheit’s (9) PP. The 8YO only won one at this level in 15-16 but looks alright overall.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 1,6

$12 Trifectas 1,9/1,6,9/1,4,6,9 ($96)

*******************************

Thursday, Feb. 18th

Race 3 – In last, Cowboy Luke (7) was hard used early, making a 110 EP (in a par 98), led into the turn, stayed up close for a long while once caught, then flattened out at the 1/16th pole. His conditioner Victor Carrasco Jr. is 6-14 Win now with the Plain FBK + Dropdown and Coa is heating up with 6 of last 15 ITM including two big bombs. Luke made the best Quirins in the field in Dec. 26th win (105-94)and is 50% Win or Place lifetime at the distance (22 tries). 8-1 ML says line maker is incompetent.

There was 1.6 inches of rain on Jan. 27 & 28th, the track was Good on the 29th (slow by 6) then rated Fast on the 30th (still slow by 3) and was still slow on the 31st (slow by 5). The 3 and 6 both made close to par numbers twice in their previous two races before the Jan. 30th race and are expected to get going again today.

KOC’s piece was sub-par in last three and should take $$$ with Gallardo up. (Caveat Emptor: Kathleen does win 20% with No Change types).

$150 Weighted Exactas 7/3,6

$8 Trifectas 7/1,2,9/3,6 ($48)

$3 Trifectas 7/4,5,10/2,3,6 ($27)

$20 Pick 3 – 7/3,5,10/3 ($60)

Race 5 – Chad Stewart’s lightly raced Replay (3) was very close to today’s par as a 2YO, then par as a 3YO. The gelding was close to par in first try off the long layoff while making a +6 Final Fraction in the process. He beat Darnell’s Spirit in that race and DS was 2nd in OST next out (and DS beat Lock N Roll in that race, who came back to win for Fuller-Vargas). Replay won’t break any records but Stewart has a soft spot for this runner and we’re confident that he’s well intended today.

Win 3

**********************

Sunday, Feb. 14th

Race 7 – On Valentine’s Day, poetic inevitability (a rare, but very special circumstance that bares a beautiful or graceful quality) smashes us right between the eyes (or through the heart, if you’re a romantic) when Mr. Wright (pun intended) is Awfully Sinful (6) (pun intended) on this day of erotic desire and higher spiritual attainment.

This 7YO mare has had only three races on the dirt (all here at Tampa), had lousy trips in two and won the other in above par effort. Last time out she was gaining along the rail through the final 1/16 but lacked room behind the weakening leader. Three races back, she got a bum ride from Beato, racing five wide then checking (while there was lots of room) at the 1/16th pole.

Mr. Wright is 7-12 ITM with Plain Stretchouts and had good success here at Tampa in P2T.

The 3 was right there with par numbers in last two and newcomer Levy is 7-13 ITM on the dirt here in Oldsmar. Gallardo reunites.

The 4 goes for Mr. Bennett, 38% W with the Plain Stretchout and now 83 -132 ITM with the angle.

I love this one.

$250 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/3,4

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 5, 6 WT 6, 8, 10 WT 8, 12 WT 4, 8 … $.50 .. $18.00

 

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 4, 6 WT 5, 6, 8 WT 4*** WT 3, 9, 10 … $.50 .. $13.50

 

Best Bet ***

**********************

Saturday, Feb. 13th

1st –  Taipan’s Advantage (5) was an above par dueler last season and Mr. Bennett is now 20-28 ITM with L4-8 + Dropdowns and 32-49 ITM with 2S + Dropdowns. He’s 20% Win and 50% ITM with Stretchouts too. After a second look, this race is a total crapshoot. Kevin was breaking my shoes about going off Ness winner yesterday in the 2nd. All I can say is “If you’re gonna key on Ness regularly you’ll never be a winner. The value is simply not there.”

$0.50 Supers 3,5.9/4,7,10/3,5,9/3,5,9,4,7,10 (54 bets)

2nd – In debut, Empire Image was bumped hard at the break, then was sandwiched leaving the chute while trying to secure the lead, led to the 1/8th pole, was bothered at the 1/16th pole, then weakened late. Had another terrible trip since at 2-1 (Jan. 24th) Another chance.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/5,6 ($100)

$3 Saver Trifectas 4/1,2,3,7,8,11/5,6 ($36)

3rd – Plesa is 64% ITM with all dirt starters in L5T and Mr. Jordan has been working sharply at Palm Meadows. Should be right there on the class drop. Ness is 19-25 ITM with this angle.

Exacta Key Box 7/5,6

4th – Arboritanza is 4-14 Win with Plain RtSs and Ms. Scarlet Fever was par two back over a fast track. Pletcher is 0-7 with FTSs here and Bradley is 1-25, but he’s 5-5 ITM with FTSs at the current meeting.

Exacta Box 7,9 and Saver Trifectas 7,9/2,3,8,11/7,9

5th – Morning Fire (6) went 107-105 in last (today’s par is 109-109) and Nations has bombed twice with StRs at the meeting but the competition is stiff here. 80% of the 59 races at 8 1/2F were won from OTP last season (77% the year before).

Exactas 3,4/6 and Saver Trifecta s 3,4/2,5/6

6th – Clement is 39% Win with this four characteristic angle in L5T and 19-23 ITM with same. Ness is only 7-33 with Non-shipping L1-3 + Stretchouts (21% W…great for others…not so much for Ness).

$50 ATB 11 ($150)

7th – Ward is 27% Win with this type, 2-2 Win at the current meeting and 10-12 ITM overall. In debut, Good Save (5) raced like a seasoned runner, rushed to contention along the rail to challenge in the turn then persisted through the late stages to stay on for a game victory. Proctor is > 50% ITM with all the angles in play here.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/4,5 ($100)

8th – Brown is always gunning for it in these big Tampa races, picking up nearly $800K in checks in L5T, but that doesn’t hold a candle to Pletcher’s $1.5M. He’s 70% ITM with all L1-3s and 28-35 ITM with Shippers here at Tampa and is 86% ITM if the favorite. Pletcher is 8-10 ITM with L4-8 + S + Dropdowns in L5T.

Exacta Box 2,4

9th – None of these can touch Cosmic Girl’s (7) numbers and Harty is 33% W and 60% ITM with PLain StRs.

$50 W & P ($100)

10th – Mott has the best win stats for the single angles here. Old Time Hockey (2) just missed last year and certainly fits.

Exacta Box 2,3

Saver Trifectas 2,3/5,10,12/2,3

11th – Chang’s Secret (9) is a Shortenup + 2PTB and Hernandez is 3-3 Win with these. Went 110 early in last, today’s EP is 102.  May surprise. Galvan has a habit of bombing with Plain FBKs and is 23% W with Shortenups.

Win 9 and Saver Exacta 8/9

12th – Bennett is 60% W and 80% ITM with L1-3 + TtoD + RtS types.

ATB 11

****************************

Friday, Feb. 12th

In the interest of transparency, I must admit that my own play has been very limited throughout both December (always a tough month when the track first opens) and January (with unprecedented bad weather), but here at ” The Handicapper” we won’t steamroll under any circumstances. We’ve still got 51 racing days remaining and we’ll stay the course, with confidence that things will turn around (as they always have in our eight year history. However, with luck not presently on my side, I’ll sometimes be saving with my top selection and be top heavy on my 2nd tier pick(s) (hoping to take advantage of the circumstances until some lucky winds start blowing).

1st – Dacosta is 40% Win with L-13 + S + Dropdown in 35 tries, but this is barely a dropdown. Surrogates for Wolfson who was 8-13 ITM here in 11-12 & 12-13. Hinsley has cooled off a bit, with only 4 for last 22 ITM and he’s only 1-7 with Non-layoff shippers at the meeting. Distinctively Great (2) fits the condition best, hands down, but 0-26 with layoffs is hard to take.

$12 Trifectas 1,6/2,5/1,2,5,6 ($96) and Saver Exacta 1,6 to cover the bet

Race 2 – Ness went to Frates only twice and missed in both (once as the favorite). Looks all wrong at rock bottom.

$7 Trifectas 5,7/3,4,6/5,7 ($42) and Saver Exacta Box 5,7 to cover

3rd – Moonlit Meteor (3) goes for Woodard and he has fab ITM numbers here : Plain Dropdown 6-6 ITM, Stretchout 14-25 ITM, with Serpa up 7-8 ITM at the meeting and 5-6 ITM FBK (on the cusp by hours). Tour Again (9) had the bias with him in last and went 107-96 in a par 98-98. The winner of that one, Divine Ambition was necked out of the win in next while moving up in class. Previous was par.

$25 Trifectas 3,9/4,7,8/3,9 ($150)

$50 DDs 3,9/4 ($100)

4th – Allaboutthechase (4) finished with good energy after making +6 Final Fraction. Must get the nod with Gallardo up.

$100 Win 4 if not alive in the DD $320

Race 7 – Rhone is heating up with 3-12 and 6-12 in the past 4 weeks after 0-19 run the previous 4 weeks. Mr. Bennett’s ticket to the SALW5 expired on Feb. 6th. Last few are a smoke screen for today’s re-eligibilty race. BTW, he won  on Feb. 6th last year at this distance by six following similar drop in class. I think she’s claimed today.

$7 Trifectas 3,5/1,4,6,10/3,5 ($56) and Saver Exacta Box 3,5 to cover

************************

Sunday, Feb. 7th

Race 1 – Mr. Bennett is 48% win if this FBK + Shortenup is the favorite. Sea Treaty (2) may have been game in last but comes out of one of the slowest races on the card that day. However, the younger Bennett is 7-8 ITM with No Change types.

Exactas 1/5,6 and Trifectas 1/2/5,6

2nd – WhiskeyTree (2) went 18 flat late after worst early position in brief career. Moves to Nagle and he’s 4-6 ITM with FBKs.

Exacta Key Box 2/6,7 and Trifectas 2/3/6,7

3rd – Jackson is almost sure to be trying with Saint Lipsi Chick (9). Gary’s 8-13 ITM with 2S + Shortenups and 15-26 ITM with 1st 3 PTBs. Rendon is now 6-11 ITM with firsters on the dirt. Samra I Am (10) was bumped really hard at the break, then trailed. First start repeat performance would be good enough for a check today.

$25 Exacta 9/10 and $25 Trifecta 9/8/10

5th – Stewart is our #1 rated trainer in OSTs with 37% Win and 66% ITM in L10T. Chad more than doubles his ordinary strike rate with these.

Exacta 12/7 and Trifectas 12/5/7 or if the 12 is out

Exacta Key Box 7/5,9

6th – Stinkster (5) matched strides with a challenger for the final 3F in last and was clearly 2nd best (the winner had a perfect trip). She went 101-91 in that race and today’s par is 92-93. Quality Silver (9) was the turned away challenger in that race and Pecoraro is now 0-50 with 1st 3 PTBs.

Best Bet – Conditional $200 Win 5 – Stinkster for > 8/5

$10 Pick 3 – 5/4/1,2,4 ($30) or $25 Pick 3 if the 5 does not meet the condition

 

*******************

Saturday, Feb. 6th

Race 1 – After an eight year hiatus, Vinson returned to training at Tampa in 2013. Since then, he’s >50% ITM with all starters. Only Mama Splash (1) has shown above par EP at the distance (and she did it in both tries). Sharp work’s indicate continued readiness. Sheppard is 12-21 ITM with Plain Shortenups. Stewart is 6-7 ITM with S + TtoD types.

Win 1, Exacta 1/5 and Trifectas 1/2/4,5,6

Race 2 – For most trainers, getting a horse ready for a big effort is like training for the marathon. Every detail is attended to and all the planning and effort directed to the day of the 26.2 mile race. And when it’s done, the lengthy preparation process must be undertaken yet again before another big race is attempted. Wetherington is 1-65 on the dirt here in L5T. Two big efforts from Niigani Coyote (7) in two weeks is too much to expect. Mogge’s piece was par in all but last try and must get another chance.

Win 9

Race 3 – Mr. Bennett has a solid bet against here. He’s only 5-71 with 2S + Surface Change types. Only 18% of horses claimed from Delacour in the last 5 years were subsequent winners. Aribelle (6) raced wide against an inside bias and made above par numbers while being eased midway through the final 1/16th. KOC is 24-38 ITM with RB + Stretchout.

Exacta Key Box 6/3,10

Race 5 – Another good bet against here. Proctor is only 4-62 win with FTTs in L5T. Clement is 29-50 ITM with FTS + FTT types, Motion is good with the singles but does little with the combo.

Exacta Box 5,8 and Trifectas 5,8/3/5,8

Race 6 – Harryhee (1) has had a couple of solid efforts at the meeting now. In last, he got going while four wide entering, and made up 4 lengths in the stretch with a +5 FF and a +3 Quirin. Needs just a couple of breaks to get his picture taken. Divine Ambition (9) went 106-105 in last while wide when the inside was the place to be. Runners claimed from Woodard wit 24% of the time. Leave it to Bowersock the 6YO ready for another big effort.  Woodard wins only 10% with the RB + S/out move.

Exacta Key Box 9/1,2

Race 7 – Mr. Bennett has all solid angles here: 7F to 1M Turf 20% W, 52% ITM (avg. odds $6.60-1), Plain StR 23-42 ITM,  RB + DtoT 10-18 ITM.  J made a 102 in turf dash three back.

$75 ATB 8

Race 9 – Mr. Bennett is 19-27 ITM with the 2L4-8 + Dropdown angle and I Zoom (1) was just a couple of clicks below par in first try.

$75 ATB 1

***********************

Friday, Feb. 5th

Another 3/10ths of an inch of rain on Thursday and a chill in the air on Friday make uncertainty about winning running styles the only sure thing today. If the Variant -5 or greater early, PPs 1,2 & 3 are likely to put the dud on all these plays.

Look for changes after the scratches come in and we determine today’s early variant.

Race 1 – Mr. Bennett has a good bet against here. He is only 6-68 with the L1-3 + 2S + TtoD + RtS angle. Galvan is 1-18 with L4-8s and Hayford-Q is 2-48 with FBKs.

Exacta Box 2,4,6

Race 3 – Ms. Violette (3) has all Manning’s winning signature angles . +5 above the bullet par work at Oakridge dispels any doubt about readiness. Mr. Bennett strikes with great frequency with FTSs and this one is from leading owners Averill (32% W in 2015).

Win and Place 4

DD 4,7/3,9

Race 5 – McCarthy is now 11-22 ITM with 2Ls at $16-1 (at those odds, the worse the horse looks the better). Brenda triples her strike rate with 2Ls over Layoffs.

Exacta Box 3,9 and Trifectas 1,3/4,9,10/1,3,9,

If the variant is -5 or greater in Races 1-4, then this play upgrades to $33 ATB 3

Race 6 – TURF ONLY – ATB 9

Race 7 – This a very tough race and I’m not betting but I’ll make a pitch anyway.  DB’s piece is the weakest of the lot and does not get serious consideration.  KOC is now 4-11 Win with this five characteristic multiple angle. Downing is 74% ITM with RB + UC types and Resourceful (3) fits the condition nicely. Hinsley is always a serious threat off the long layoff. El Grande Rojo (5) set a new track record in last (over a +7, +4 variant, a huge effort).  Fast Flying Rumor (6) was well above par in both starts at the meeting and Good Lord (7) has been surprising us with big efforts for years.

Just for Fun Play – Trifectas 6/All/2,5 (8 bets)

Race 8 – TURF ONLY – Our biggest wager of the year was made on a Connelly runner and it disappointed in a big way but that’s no reason not to get back on the horse (so to speak). Connelly missed twice with this angle at the meeting but was previously 6-7 ITM at 16-1. She’s also 9-19 ITM with 1PTBs. Dropdown and switch to Gallardo are encouraging, but the icing for me is those last two works, the slowest of the day at the distance on Jan 14th, preceded by a +6 above the bullet par at the Starting Point Center, a feeble attempt at throwing us off the scent.

$75 W & P Vitium (5)

$5 Saver Trifectas 2,4/2,4,8,10/5 ($30)

Race 10 – TURF ONLY – Ward surrogate KD’s Cat Bird (7) is a Lonnie Arterburn runner. Lonnie has won $18M lifetime and is having a good showing in 15-16 at the south Florida tracks.  Arterburn was 50% ITM  or > with all the single angles in play here. His daughter, reliable Tampa veteran Brittany is up. (As a footnote, Ward is 5-9 ITM with StR + Surface Change types.)

$33 ATB KD’s Cat Bird (7)

****************

Sunday, Jan. 31st

Mercifully, January comes to an end. During this upcoming Roman month of purification (Februarius), I’ll be looking forward to the extra day to have another chance to recover.

There’s only one serious play today in the 9th, but these may offer some entertainment value for our action players.

Race 1 – Wasiluk is 33% ITM with all Plain Shortenups and Coa was up on all of his ITM finishers at the meeting.

Exactas 1,5,7/6

Race 2 – Ferraro’s piece switches to Gallardo after making par EP in first try. MA is 10-22 ITM at 12-1 with the 2L1-3 + No Class Change angle.

Exacta Key Box 2/3,5

Pick 3 – 2,3,5/1,2,4/3

Race 3 – Hamm is 5-9 Win or Place with Layoffs on the Dirt (with a +70% ROI). Morning Buzz (1) was above par in last.

Exacta Key Box 2/1,4

Race 4 – Pick 3 – 3/All/8

Race 6 – The A Plan (8) made par EP in the N1X and shortens up today for Trisler, 16% Win with sprinters on the dirt in L5T.

$0.50 Pick 4 – 8/All/1,3,7/5 ($15)

Race 8 – City Mudd (2) goes for Jackson and Gary is 80% ITM with TtoD + Dropdown types in L6T. KOC is now 200-400 ITM with all Shortenups in L5T.

Exacta Key Box 2/1,3,7

$15 DD 2/3,5,7 ($45)

Race 9 – Kielty is 9-17 ITM at $25-1 with Plain DtoT types and 43% ITM with Plain Dropdowns. Before they were taken off the turf in last, Kielty had a 52% ITM angle working, the Plain UC. Classy Lapantalones France (5) gets a second chance today and has a great opportunity to get away for a price. It’s only an ITM angle as reflected in the wagers, but this one could wind up in the circle. Strollingintherain (6) has a %E outside the upper limit for today’s race.

Only if the 14 is out:

$180 Weighted Exactas 3,7/5 ($180)

$60 Weighted Exactas 5/3,7 ($60)

$25 Trifectas 3,7/3,7/5 ($50)

if Cruz goes to the 4 after the 14 scratches, then add the 4 to the 2nd position in the above tris.

$7 Saver Trifectas 3,7/4,6,8,12/5 ($56)

Total Wagers up to $456 today

OFF THE TURF – And that’s the end of that!

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 5 WT 1***, 4 WT 3, 5, 9 WT 3,8 … $.50 .. $18.00

 

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 3, 8 WT 1,8 WT 1, 7 WT 3, 4, 7, 10 … $.50 .. $12.00

 

Best Bet ***

*******************

Saturday, Jan. 30th

Four and a half inches of rain in January along with chilly temps have wreaked havoc on dirt and turf and I’m avoiding the latter for the time being.

Race 1 – Pick 3 – 3,4,5/1,4,7/7

Race 3 – Battle Axe (7) has one of Ness’ signature moves going here, the RtS + TtoD. Ness won 52% (15-29) with these in L7T and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today. Awfully Sinful (5) comes RB after above par win but Mr. Wright is 0-27 now with Shortenups.

Pick 3 – 7/All/4,5

Race 5 – AE Chantage (14) goes for Barbaran and Horacio is 33-72 ITM with Plain No Class Change types in L5T and this type accounted for >50% of all his bombs during the same period.

Race 7 – Rigattieri is a 20% lifetime trainer who is 14% Win at the last two Tampa meetings (and 1-16 at the current meeting). His runner comes out of glorified SALW $7500 where Twocubanbrothersu (6) was caught in the stretch in a game effort on an off track (where he excels). John has no win angles here. I think he’s vulnerable off the 56 day layoff, but those speed figures are hard not to respect. The horse (not the trainer) missed in both tries when shipping into Tampa off the layoff.

Bennett has had 242 starts in L3T but only tried the Plain FBK nine times. He won with four and is 88% ITM (8 of 9). He’s gotta be well intended here. Gallardo jumps off Ness RB to stick with Gimmeadrink (8) and I like that.

Mulvey’s piece was competetive on the major circuit, then went well in restricted races in the minors. Artic Slope (5) was outgunned in first try but made above par EP in that one. With a little luck he’ll put away Ness’ piece for the show.

$150 Weighted Exacta Key Box 8/2,3,5

$3 Saver Supers 6,8/6,8/2,3,5/2,3,5 ($36)

On the off chance that the Ness piece is the favorite, then

$150 Weighted Exacta Box 6,8

$12 Trifectas 6,8/2,3,5/6,8 ($72)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 6, 7 WT 1, 5, 12 WT 5, 6, 8 WT 1, 8 … $.50 .. $ 27.00

 

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 6*** WT 3, 5, 6 WT 1, 4, 5, 10 WT 3, 10 … $.50 .. $ 24.00

*******************

Friday, Jan. 29th

We can’t catch a break. Rain in the forecast again and all week (since Tuesday). Friday’s morning works were over a GOOD main surface, hinting that the drying process has been hampered by cool temps despite a sunny forecast and that bodes well for the outside today.

Race 2 – Ness won 57% if the favorite with this angle and Gallardo on and off track rocks.

Trifectas 5/3,6,7/2,3,6,7

Pick 3 – 5/All/6,11

Race 3 – Scratch of Hadrian (my top choice) leaves this one wide open now.

Race 4 – Vinson is 11-15 ITM with Plain Shortenups and he rarely miss the board at the last two meetings. Maddymax (11) was well above par in last and Rhone wins 20% with Plain Stretchouts.

Exacta Box 6,11

DDs – 6,11/2,11

Race 5 – If Toastermaster (11) gets strong action in the R4 DD probables, he’s likely to be right there as Patrick is 80% ITM with the Favorite + Shortenup angle.

Race 7 – One Buck Roma (7) is razor sharp right now.

$150 Weighted DD – 7/3,8

$2.00 Saver Pick 3 – 3,6/3,8/All ($72)

Race 8 – Ness and KOC look very tough on an off track after they both were well above par in last but there won’t be any value here in the exacta.

On the off chance that they go on the weeds, then the Ness and Ward (Dance N Denae) pieces figure prominently. KOC is still a good bet against on the lawn (despite recent win). She is now 5-70 with 2S + Surface Change types.

$50 Exacta Box 5,8 ($100)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 2, 8 WT 3, 7, 11 WT 3, 5, 8 WT 9 … $.50 .. $13.50

 

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3*** WT 3, 4, 8 WT 2, 5, 7, 8 WT 1,3,4… $.50 … 18.00

 

Best Bet ***

****************

Sunday, Jan. 24th

Race 1 – Woodard is 23% W and 46% ITM with the Plain Shortenup but Emmy Who’s (6) Quirins have been sub-par in last two. Scarlett Del (3) was well above par in last start of 2015. McQuade divested Back For Dinner (7) over the summer. This is the longest break the old warrioress has ever seen, but Dacosta is 4-6 ITM with L4-8 + S + 1PTB types at the last two meetings.

Exacta Key Box 6/3,4

Race 2 – Gonzalez is 0-16 with FTSs and 8-12 ITM with 2TS + Stretchout types. This is one of her signature moves.

Exacta Key Box 3/6,7

Saver Trifectas 3,6/1,2,7,10/3,6 (8 Bets)

Race 3 – Harvatt is 11-15 ITM with this angle at $12-1. Hernandez Jr. is 85% ITM (23-27) with Plain Stretchouts.

Trifectas 4,5/6,8/6,8

Trifectas 8/4,5/6

Race 4 – Glacial Ocean (1) was above par in maiden win and made late splits of 13.10 versus Megatrez’s (2) 13.76. None of these except the 1 is as good or bad as they may look.

Win 1

Race 7 – Pick 3 – 7/1,3,9/5

Race 8 – TURF ONLY – This is the kind of race one needs to wait six years to be able to take advantage of. At the last six meetings Teresa Connelly has been ITM with 50% of all starters at average odds of $11-1. During the same period Teresa was 6-7 ITM with Layoff + Shipper types, 67% ITM with Surface Changes and 50% ITM with FTTs. The Lovebug (1) comes out of a the toughest race in the field (save for Harty’s piece) and his sire has produced 20% Winners on the turf. In this glorified N2L The Lovebug  looks best by conventional handicapping as well as by my methodology. And to complicate matters, she has another, the 10. Same solid angles, but 50% ITM with PTBs.

Conditional $200 Win 1 for > 5/2

$200 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/3,9

if the 1 does not meet the condition, then $300 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/3,9

$5 Saver Trifectas 1,3,9/2,8,10/1,3,9 but only if the 12 is out ($90)

Conditional $20 Pick 3 – 1/5/3,4,7,10,11 ($100) if the 1 is < 5-2 at 1 min to post

Race 9 – The younger Bennett is on the cusp of a 55% Win angle here. Fancy Man (5), his Wildcat Heir (54 winners at Tampa in L5T, RIP) colt was beaten a 1/2 length by recent Turf Stakes winner Fast Flying Rumor last spring and that ices it for me.

Win 5

Race 10 – KOC has a great bet against here. Kathleen is only 4-68 with 2S + DtoT types in L5T.

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early P4 – 3,5,8/2,4,5,10/4,8/1,7,8 .. $36

Late P4 – 1,3/2,3,6,9***/5,7,8/5,7 $24/48

Best Bet ***

**********************

Saturday, Jan. 23rd

A 20 + MPH North wind devours front runners and propels OTP types today. I’ve piddled away a good chunk of bankroll on short spec plays. Enough of that.

Race 1 – Substraight (1) was par in both starts, Gallardo sticks. Bennett/Schultz PTB arrangement is unclear but Equels Marro is Mr. Bennett’s connection. Trisler’s piece comes out of some tougher races. Bowersock is 0-33 with 2Ss and Ward goes to winless OK Hernandez for the first time at the meeting and that puts me off those two.

DDs 1,8/3

2nd – Cool Blue Moon (3) has had only three sprints and was there in two. I’ll throw out Opening Day meltdown. Raced up close early next time out at 8.18F and makes the RtS move today on the class drop. None of these trainers has a strong win angle here (Hamm is the best with 11%).

Exacta Key Box 3/5,9

3rd – Kaelin’s piece has a clean record and was close to par in last. Switches to Gallardo and Kaelin has a 15% W, 44% ITM angle here, the Plain Shortenup. Gonzalez is 1-14 when Spieth is not up.

Exacta Key Box 6/3,9

Trifectas 6/4,5,11/3,9

4th – Melody Pomeroy (11) stalked last time out to win with par Quirins. Gotta be there for piece anyway.

ATB 11

5th – Smith has the best record with FTSs on the dirt 4-13 W, 8-13 ITM in L5T and already bombed with one at the current meeting. Proctor’s 21% W and 55% ITM. Anything can happen with so many untested types, nevertheless it’s a betting man’s (or woman’s) race.

$150 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/1,2,7

$7 Saver Trifectas 1,2,7/1,2,7/6 ($42)

$1 Superfectas 2/All/6/1,7 ($18) >>>>>>>>>>>$70 now

6th – Proceeding on the assumption that speedy types are at a disadvantage today, Cosmic Girl (7) won from OTP with bigger Quirins early and late than the Sandpiper participants. CG went 99-102 while the Stakes race went 98-96 just an hour earlier. Casse took $500K in purses in L5T not to shabby for a trainer with only 62 starters here during that period.

Win 7 and Saver Exacta 8/7

8th – Hernandez Jr. has a bonanza of angles going here: L1-3 + 1 PTB 3-5 W, 5-5 ITM, Shipper 33% W, 72 % ITM, Rightback 65% ITM, Stretchout 20-22 ITM, if the favorite 36-42 ITM. These are compelling any way you look at it. Harvatt is now 27-54 ITM with Plain Stretchouts at $13-1 odds. Newcomer Karen “Boots” Yanez has a back story. Karen’s been married for 29 years to Moises Yanez, a long-time fixture on the Illinois racing circuit, and serves as his assistant, breaking the couple’s young horses for their clients at their Del Sol Farm near Ocala. She’s been a force to be reckoned with here surprising regularly.

$150 Weighted Exacta Box 5,9,10 SCRATCHED & OFF THE TURF

9th – Classy Joint Return (1) fits best for Smarty Jones’ conditioner and top 100 earner for the past ten years, John Servis. Pletcher won 6 of 7 and was 100% ITM with L1-3 + RB + UC types here. It’s hard to argue with that kind of success. His other piece, Kinsley (9) is on the cusp of the same angle, but made sub-par numbers in last and is forsaken.

Exacta Box 1,8

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 5, 6, 11 WT 2, 5, 9, 11 WT 2, 4, 7 WT 6 … 50¢ .. $22.00

 

Late Pic 4 (8-11) …. 3, 5, 9 WT 3, 6, 8 WT 3, 4, 6, 9 WT 7*** … 50¢ .. $18.00

 

Best Bet ***

 

****** Bonus Play ******

Pasco Stakes Trifecta … $2 ticket … Key part wheel 4/ 1, 3, 5, 7 …. $24.00

********************

Friday, Jan. 22nd

Another off track today with rain ending late in the morning. We look for the outside to be prevalent especially in the early races.

All selections assume they are OFF THE TURF. If there is any rain after the national anthem, reduce all wagers by 50%.

Race 1 – Proctor is 29-43 ITM with Dropdown + RtS types but has to beat super trainer Loza (5-8 Win with FTSs).

$33 ATB 6 (OFF THIS ONE)

Race 2 – The pricey Tale of the Cat weanling Tiger Tank (5) was kept in the family and it’s working out nicely. The Colebrook runner went 109 early in last and shortens up today (today’s par is 102).

Conditional $33 ATB 5 for > 2-1

Spec Play $15 Pick 3 – 5/4/3,4,8 ($45)

Spec Play $3 Pick 3 – 1,2,6/4/3,4,8 ($27)

Race 3 – Stewart is our #1 trainer with OSTs for the past ten years. He’s more than doubled his ordinary strike rate with these. He’s also got a 26% Win angle here, the 2L1-3 + 2S + No Class Change.

Spec Play $25 DD 4/8 SCRATCHED

Race 4 – Area Fifty One (8) was well above par (for total energy) in first try and gets another chance. Guciardo is 6-6 ITM with this angle at $9-1 odds and is 13-24 ITM with PTBs.

It’s always dicey on an off track. May scrap this one. Depends on how fast the track seems to be.

$25 Exactas 8/3,4 ($50)

$8 Trifectas 8/6,9/3,4,6,9 ($48) SCRATCHED

Trifectas 3,4/3,4,6,9/3,4,6,9

Race 5 – Three of these had the inside bias working for them last time out but it didn’t help them a lick. Dominguez is a 4% trainer with a 23% Win angle here, the No Change.

Spec Play $50 Weighted DDs 5,7,10/10 ($50)

Race 6 – Stewart again with the OST angle but the Quirins on the grass say no. Chad is also 8-25 Win with the Plain Stretchout. Nation’s piece was above par in the SLOP last fall while not hitting the board. Ken was closest to par in last.

Spec Play $25 Win 10 (if not alive in the DD)

Race 7

Spec Play $5.00 Pick 3 – 9/4,5,7,8,10,11/4 ($30)

Race 9 – Ness has two winning multiple angles here. RB + UC + Shortenup 17-26 Win and RB + UC + FBK 13-27 Win. Video Move went 102 in last, today’s par is 98.

See Race 7 Pick 3

*******************

Sunday, Jan.17th

Race 1 – Delacour is 44% ITM with all FTSs in L5T. Julia Tutwiler’s owner, Carolyn Wilson is 37-88 ITM at Tampa in L5T and Mott is > 50% ITM with nearly every angle in play here. Rendon’s piece (6) is a bird in hand (so to speak). Shenandoah Queen dug in for the show in first try with a -5 below par effort, but it wasn’t as bad as the 11 beaten lengths would have it appear.

Trifectas 5,6/2,5,6/All (20 bets)

Pick 3 – 5,6/1,7,8/3,4,8

Race 3 – Mr. Bennett wins 33% with 2TS’s at Tampa and is 64% ITM with FBK + UC types. RG Smith has a solid record with long layoffs (7-27 W, 11-27 ITM) and has good success with 2TSs (3-10 Win).

Trifectas 3,8/3,4,8/All (28 bets)

Race 5 – Hot Tommy J. (3) was assisted to the circle by a strong inside bias in sub-par win but Ness is now 68% Win (17-25) with the RB + Shortenup + Favorite angle. Delacour is 11-28 W and 20-28 ITM with today’s four element multiple angle.

Conditional Win $200 Win 5 for 5-2 or > or $150 Win and Place for 7/2 or >

Saver Exacta 3/5 and Saver Trifectas 2,6,8,10/5/3 to cover the bet (approximately $60)

Race 6 – Durr bombed twice with Weekend Appeal (6) last season, but Octavio Bernal, did not win even one turf race in the three seasons he was based here last (2012-2014). I thinks Durr waits for those two bombs to drop off the bottom of the PP.

On the Turf – Trifectas All/7/1,3,10 (24 Bets)

Off the Turf – Exacta Key Box 7/1,2,11

Race 7 – Loza is now 4-7 W, 6-7 ITM with FTSs. If he doesn’t throw some duds in there he won’t be able to run in claiming races much longer. Pecoraro is now 8-14 with L4-8 + Dropdown types and tries the angle for the first time today.

Trifectas 7/5/1,8,9 and Pick 3’s – 5/All/1,3,9

Race 9 – If live to a worthwhile Pick 3, save with Trifectas 6/All/1,3,9 (24 Bets)

***********************

Saturday, Jan. 16th

Race 1 – $4 Spec Play Pick 3 – 2,3,4/1,2,4/7 ($36)

Race 3 – Ness won 42% in 1st 3 OC in L3T and is 5 of 7 Win with the angle this season.

Race 6

Wildcat Prince (5) is a big overlay at $12-1 (even at 6-1). The gently used 8 YO is 15-30 Win or Place at today’s distance and Simms has two multiple angles going here: Plain FBK + No Class Change 8-18 ITM and Plain FBK + StR 7 of 12 ITM.

$33 ATB 5 (if they are off the turf today, this becomes a $50 ATB play)

Race 7 – $1 Spec Play Pick 3 – 7,8,10/All/8 ($36) ON THE TURF ONLY

Race 8 – $.50 Spec Play Pick 3 -All/8/1,2,6,9 ($24) ON THE TURF ONLY

Race 9 ON THE TURF ONLY

Lightly raced Giant’s Passion (8) (a son of Leading North American Turf Sire Giant’s Causeway) comes out of a monster race. In that one, Dannhauser went 121-108 (today’s par is 100-100). I was suspect of those Quirins (as they were made over – 17, -6 variant) and they equaled the numbers put up in last year’s Tampa Bay Derby, the Florida Oaks and the Tampa Turf Classic. However, on Wednesday, Dannhauser comes back with a 128-106 with the rail at 30 feet, another huge effort. How big? Well the track record was set in 1999 by Legs Galore with no portable rail in place. Dannhauser went another .31 furlongs (205 feet) with the rail at 30. In 1999, the track got less rain in the previous six weeks than the track got last Saturday (just four days before Dannhauser’s second big race). By my estimation, Wednesday’s race was just a click or two off the track record (after adjustments). All of this support’s the legitimacy of the Dec. 20th race in which GP went 120-104. Chavez is now 4-18 W, 8-18 ITM with PTBs. Switches to Ferrer today. I am all in on Giant’s Passion (8).

Boyce is 10-11 ITM with the Layoff + Shipper + No Class Change Angle.

KOC is 0-36 with the Plain UC + FTT angle.

$50 Exacta 8/7

$10 Trifectas 8/1,3,5,6,9/7 ($50)

$4 Saver Supers 8/3,5,9/1/7 ($12)

Conditional Saver Win 8 to cover the bet and make another $200 profit for >2-1 only

********************

Friday, Jan. 15th

OFF TURF/OFF TRACK ONLY (To Be Revised if necessary)

Heavy rains put the dud on most of the action today….please see the changes and look for spot plays I may consider as the day goes on….

1st – In a race that’s sure to be sub-par, Good Times Rambles (4) can’t be left off the ticket. The Candy Ride gelding won or finished up close in 7 of 16 starts and goes for Trisler, who won 10% and was ITM in 33% of all dirt starts in L5T. FDLC won 5 times more races on an off track than Ricky Feliciano in L3T (albeit with 4x as many mounts). Gimme A Double (5) has two 70% ITM angles going and switches to Gallardo (king of the off track). Fifth Street (2) has not raced at this level here at Tampa in years.  The reliable oldtimer was beaten a neck by recent track record maker El Grande Rojo in 2014. He was closest to par in last. Anecdotally, horses claimed from Ness tend to lose their edge over time. The Woodard claim made the softest Quirins among our contenders in first OC.

My trip note for Jarrod’s Commando (7) gives me pause for further consideration and 7 of 8 W or P at Tampa is compelling.

Spec Play

$1 Pick 3’s 2,4,5,7/2,5/2,4,7 $1 ($24) and

$2 Pick 3’s 5/2,3,4,5/2,4,7 ($24)

2nd – Harryhee (2) comes off big effort on an off track. In that four horse field, the winner moved way up in class (OC62,500/N3X), the 3rd finisher was 3rd in $16K claimer in next start and the 4th runner, Paltarrevenge won next start in $16K claiming. Another big effort would not surprise.

4th – Bradley won 20% and was 40% ITM in all OSTs in L9T (that’s 150% higher than his ordinary strike rate in L4T). He’s also better than 50% ITM with today’s angle, the Plain Dropdown.

Spec Play $0.50 Pick 3 – 6/All/All ($32)

Spec Play $0.50 Pick 3 – All/All/4 ($32)

7th – Ness won 46% and was 78% ITM in all OSTs in L9T and he 3-peated in 47% of all tries in L7T. Gallardo is up. This SALW drew a very diverse field, most just on their way up. I gotta stick with the class here.

If live to a worthwhile Pick 3, then save with Weighted Exactas 5,6,7/4

*******************

Sunday, Jan. 10th

The drought continues. If I can’t give you winners, at least maybe I can put you off some bad bets.

1st – By the numbers, Arboritanza should not be the ML favorite. Joe is now 3-36 with Shippers and 2-28 with Dropdowns. He enters a 3TS for only the 2nd time in the last three meetings today.

2nd – All of these except Ward’s piece, Scarlett Del (5) have chinks in their armor, assuming you’re cool with Chad Lindsay in the irons.

3rd – Gonzalez is 15% W and 44% ITM with Plain Stretchouts and tries the angle for the first time today with Flyin Away (8). Another top line maker choice, Little Comma (6) goes for Carrasco Jr. and he is now 0-19 with Plain Stretchouts  in L2T.

4th – Another play to avoid by the stats is #4 Ottaauquechee. Kielty is now 0-36 with 2Ls in L7T.

5th – Mr. Bennett has another uncoupled entry here. He’s now gotten both runners a check only once in 14 tries. As you recall, Wednesday, I was off one of his uncoupled runners, but it was the wrong one. I’m not guessing today. They are both virtuous.

6th – Reyes is now 9-16 with Barry Rose PTB’s that are shortening up. We had Diana (5) last time out but multiple scratches drastically reduced our trifecta payoff. I wouldn’t leave her off your ticket.

7th – Hernandez Jr. and leading owners Amaty Racing are having the same kind of meeting as I am, with nothing to show after the first six weeks. Today Sandino has Little Daniella (2) and more solid angles than Carter has pills: L1-3 35% W & 78% ITM, Shipper + Dropdown 78% ITM, TtoD 80% ITM, Stretchout 41% W & 91% ITM, OC 70% ITM,  L1-3 + Favorite (if it is so) 100% ITM (15-15). To sweeten it, Daniella was claimed from the super trainer Loza.

Mr. Bennett is now 6-13 W & 10-13 ITM with L4-8s at the meeting. Gerry has no solid multiple angle here and he scratched Guyana Star (1) out of an N1Y for a nickel on Friday and that might be an encouraging sign.

Ness is 76% ITM with Non-layoff 2S types and Gallardo bumps Pedroza for the mount today.

$50 Win 2

$50 Exacta 2/6

$25 Trifectas 2/3,6/3,6 ($50)

$6 Saver Trifectas 2/4,5,7/3,6 ($36)

Total Wager $186

$0.50 Spec Play Pick 4 – 2/All/3,4/1,6,8 ($24)

***********************

Saturday, Jan. 9th

Race 1 – Carracso is 6-9 ITM with FBK + Shortenup types.

Exacta Key Box 4/1,2 and Pick 3 – 1,2,4/2,3,6/2,6 (18 Bets)

Race 3 – Power Alert (2) goes both ways, drops in class and gets Gallardo. Richie’s Sweetheart (6) made the 2nd best Quirin of the meeting, a 110 in the Lightning City and Rivelli is 4-13 Win on the Turf here. He’s usually well intended.

Trifectas 2,6/2,6/3,7,9,10 (8 bets)

Race 4 – Harvatt and Simms both bomb on the Plain Stretchout but Willow Bob (7) will be the short one, and deservedly.

Exacta 7/5

Saver Trifectas 7/All/5

Race 5 – Tune Me In (6) was up close in lightning fast EP versus expatriate and BC alumnus War Envoy and NGS runner (and Tampa winner) Dannhauser in last. The Quirins are suspect as the variant was -17, -6 that day after dismal numbers were posted by 2YO Fillies in an N1X and F&M in an N2L claimer, but it’s safe to say the race of interest was well above par early and late at worst and the biggest turf race of the meeting at best (a 121-108), depending on your point of view. Today’s par is 102-101. Spark Kit (10) set the pace in that one and was no match in a game effort. The latter’s trainer, Aschinger was featured in my new handicapping book as my primary example of a winning multiple angle (the same one that’s in play today). He won 6 of 10 and was 8 of 10 ITM with the Shortenup + No Class Change since appearing at Tampa and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today. Poetic inevitability demands that I support Mr. Aschinger’s runner here.

$150 Weighted Exacta Box 6,10 ($150)

Race 6 – Maragh won 43% and was 62% ITM with all starters in L5T. Just missed three of last six. Sharp workout on the dirt is encouraging sign.

Spec Play $0.50 Pick 5 – 4/All/9/2,3,5,9/6,10 ($40)

Race 8 – Faction Cat (9) was well above par in last and is clearly the one to beat. Proctor is 27-55 with all FTS here in L5T.

Win 9, Exacta 9/8 and Trifectas 9/1,2/8

***********************

Friday, Jan. 8th

THEY ARE OFF THE TURF TODAY

1st – Duran has solid ITM angle with Layoffs on the Dirt and he’s recouped his $10K investment off the claim last summer. Last Embrace (2) drops in class and returns to the dirt in practical move. Padilla is 50% ITM with all four single angles in play here.

Spec Play $5 Pick 3 – 2/All/5 ($40)

3rd – Block is a Top 100 earner in NA with a $6573 AEPS for the last ten years. Hide the evidence made par FF in last. Serpa won 16% on the grass whence last he hung his tack here.

Ness won 45% and was 77% ITM with all OST starts in L10T

Spec Play $3 Pick 3 – 5/All/5,10 ($60)

Race 5 – Hemingway is 0-40 on the dirt in L5T. He’s finally got a live one in Sinster Blue (5), who was well above par early and par late in last and was very close to par two back while beaten by 6 lengths. He’s long overdue. Inspector Bill (10) comes out of an almost key race that I’ve been touting since Dec. 2nd. Charlesbrecknridge was 2nd next out and claimed for $25K by Ness, Imperial Jack dropped in class and won at GP paying $50 and Kutschman was 2nd a neck on the dropdown next time out. The latter two were beaten by 7 1/2 in the Dec. 2nd race. Inspector Bill made a 99-93 in that race, drops in class and shortens up today (today’s par is 91-93).

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 5,10 ($60)

$8 Trifectas 2,10/2,5,10/2,5,10 ($32)

$1 Saver Supers 5,10/1,2,3,9/5,10/1,2,9 ($24)

Total Wager $116

Race 7 – Joan Scott is 11-22 Win this multiple angle and tries it for the first time at the meeting today. Ness wins 42% (and is 70% ITM) in first three off the claim here and despite an 81% ITM multiple angle, I can’t get past the tempermental Purple Egg’s (5) failure to pop off the claim and a 68% decrease in value since that claim. What a descent…

Conditional $100 Win 8 for 2-1 or >

**********************

Wed. Jan. 6th

The PP bias persisted on Sunday with PPs 4-8 winning 27 of last 35 on the dirt for an IV of 1.29 (and with some real bombs). PP 1 has seen only one winner in the last six race days.

Race 1 – Mr. Bennett has tried the uncoupled entry move 13 times in L2T. He had both ITM only once. Today, we have a Wesley Ward PTB that remains with Averill Racing and a FTS. Averill is 37-45 ITM here at Tampa in L2T. Bennett is 34-56 ITM with PTBs and 3 for 6 Win this season with this type. R Sniper Jones (3) was sub-par by 10 in first try. As for the FTS, Bennett is 48% ITM with 3YOs and 11-42 W and 22-42 with FTSs. He generally goes to Gallardo or Centeno with well intended FTSs. Santos has had several tries in L3T and was not ITM.

Trifectas 2,5,6,7/3/2,5,6,7 (12 bets)

Race 2 – Horrendous split times for the rest of the field leave us with Yo Carm (3) and Uncle Jerry (6). The latter goes for Harty and he won 46% with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown + Shortenup move in L2T and tries it for the first time at the meeting today. Jerry made lightning fast 4F work last week (a positive sign for Harty runners).

Win 6

Race 3 – Super trainer Loza is now 4-7 W, 6-7 ITM with Maidens in first three starts and won with a FTTer in for $16K on Sunday. Bennett has 67% ITM angle here but is a bit soft with FTTs. Galvan has solid angles here but JE Lopez has not won a race on the grass here in at least three years.

Trifectas All/2,4/2,3,4,6 (36 Bets)

Race 4 – Six of seven of Durr’s recent bombs have been PTBs, including an L4-8 and 3 of 5 of his bombs in L2T belonged to Robert Baker.

Spec Play $10 ATB 7 ($30)

Race 5 – Dacosta has 47% Win angle with the 1 and is 50% ITM with PTBs in L2T (7-14). Potts has two 60% ITM angles here and Connect The Dots (4) was close to par in first try and shortens up today. The other Dacosta piece (9) has three 50% ITM angles going. Ward runner drops 70% in claiming price after up close finish. Looks wrong. Navarro has four 30% win angles here but a 2-20 cheap claimer moving up in class should not be 2-1.

Spec Play $7 Exacta Key Box 4/1,9 ($28)

$1.00 Saver Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/1,9 ($12)

Race 6 – KOC has a winning multiple angle here with five elements (and you don’t see that very often). Kathy is 4-9 Win with L1-3 + S + UC + No Distance Change + No Surface Change runners. Ness is 63% win with RtS + Dropdown types (19-30). Brothersofthetime (5) comes out of an OC for N2Xs and N1Y and did nothing. 95% of all 7F winners here were < 2 1/2 beaten lengths at the 2nd Call last year. IMO Brothers is too late for the party.

 $25 Trifectas 4,6/4,6/1,2 ($100)

$3 Saver Supers 4,6/4,6/3,5/1,2 ($24)

Spec Play $0.50 Pick 3 – 4,6/1,7,8/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($18)

Race 7 – The 1 made a 105 early in last before giving way (today’s EP par is 89). Shortenup improves the outcome today.

Exacta Key Box 1/7,8

Race 8 – 80% off all of Ryan’s winners in L3T were S/up or S/outs. Big Kick (3) is a big overlay at 10-1. BK comes out of a solid SHCP, Potts is 80% ITM with Plain Dropdowns and runners claimed from the Ramseys in L9T won 44% in 1st 3OC (the third time’s a charm).

Exacta Box 1,3

Saver Trifectas 1,3/4,9/1,3

Race 9 – If you’re alive in the Pick 3 stay seated. If not, beat the crowd to the parking lot (it’s just a figure of speech – the words Tampa and crowd should really never be used in conjunction).

1,2,3,4,7,9

**************************

Sunday, Jan. 3rd

We’ve seen 23 of 27 on the dirt won by PP’s 4-8 recently (6 for 6 yesterday). That’s 42% above their fare share. Until this changes it must be a significant factor in our handicapping, but the chill in the air may put a damper on a bias that we may be too late to take advantage of.

Race 1

Bennett is 14-21 ITM with 2L1-3 + Dropdown types and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting. Dacosta is better than 50% ITM with all three angles in play here.

Pick 3 – 5,6/All/7 (12 bets)

Race 3

Ward’s piece, Allie Sweet (7) look’s right with help from the bias. Ward is better than 50% ITM with the 2L1-3 + 2S angle and doubles his ordinary strike rate in 1st 3 OC. He doesn’t do much with StRs, but Allie does just fine at today’s distance.

If live in the P3 then Saver Exactas 2,3/7 otherwise

Exacta Key Box 7/2,3

Race 4

Storlazzi bombed with 3 of 6 starters in L2T. Spin the wheel of fortune if you dare on #7.

Race 5 – TURF ONLY

My form is so marked up on #2 Judge Hudson, I can hardly read the PPs. KOC has two multiple angles in play here: L4-8 + S + 2TT 6 of 10 ITM at average odds of $7-1 and 1PTB + 2TT 7-10 ITM.  Kathy is 6-9 ITM with Allen in the irons at $10-1 this season. Michelle Nihei (the PTB) had two turf runners here in L5T and both were ITM. Ownership remains with P,S & B. Surrogacy is in play.

The Last Rocket (5) made interesting COP in 2nd start, but his %E is outside the upper limit for today’s surface and distance. Nevertheless, he could surprise as Dacosta is 5-8 ITM with 3TS (but 0-6 with FTTs). I think not. SCRATCHED

Super trainer Loza has two here but he did not try the FTT angle at the last three Tampa meetings.

$50 Win and Place 2

Race 6

The Inaugural Stakes looked more like an N1X to me so I’m not keen on the 1 or the 2.

Padilla is 6 for 8 ITM with L1-3 + S + RtSs.

Mr. Manning is the wild card. All the runners of interest in that one’s last have been on the shelf.

Race 8

We refer to our 12/20 selections for Gimmeadrink (3) who lost all chance in first try.

” Gimmeadrink (8) is the standout SALW runner of the meeting to date. He hasn’t raced for a nickel in nearly two years. Dale Bennett tries to squeeze the last drop of drink here in last eligible start in this condition.”

 Races where he belongs today.

Punster (5) was pressured by two runners at different stages in last and stayed on for a game 2nd with a close to par final Quirn (but the 2nd Call Q was slow). Gallardo sticks.

Paltarevenge (7) comes out of a race with the weakest open $25K field I’ve seen here in a long time. This piece of Ness’ uncoupled entry will take $$$ but looks wrong to me.

This is the 3rd time were talking about McKenzie on the FBK and he burned us last time, but four starts in 36 days is pushing it.

Conditional $80 Weighted Exacta Key Box 3/4,5 for 5-2 or >

$10 Saver Trifecta 3/8/4,5 ($20)

Race 9

Hernandez is 100% ITM with this angle if the favorite (15-15).

Reyes with Rose PTBs that are shortening up is 47% ITM at 10-1. As always this is an automatic play.

Spec play $10 Exacta 8/1 and $1 Trifectas 8/All/1 ($9)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 3***, 4 WT 2, 3, 8 WT 3, 4 WT 2, 7 … $.50 .. $18.00

 Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 6 WT 1, 6, 7 WT 1, 2, 7 WT 2, 8 … $.50 .. $18.00

 Best Bet *** 

*********************

Saturday, January 2nd

1st – Sandy Cataldi has given up training to provide Magnawave equine therapy services. Her last starter went on Sept. 15th. Pretty Indiscreet (5) was in her care and goes to Gatis now. The filly went well in debut, then went wrong while well backed next time out.  She didn’t work for several months, then went +14 above the bullet par at the Ocala Jockey Club two weeks ago after a couple of par works. She remains with Cataldi’s owners. Sandy won lots of races with the multiple angle, Gatis, not so much, but it’s worth a shot on the dropdown today.

Spec Play $20 Win and Place 5 ($40)

Saver DDs 5,7/5,9 (to cover the $40 wager+)($16)

2nd – Gatis is 6-12 Win with this multiple angle and tries it for the first time at the meeting today. Last was close to par, but only Matos’ piece was par in last two.

Spec Play $20 Win and Place 9 ($40)

Saver DDs 5,9/1,9 (to cover the $40 wager+) ($10)

3rd – Eddie G (9) was par in first try and Ward is now 19-37 with 2L4-8 + 2S types. Chavez bombed with three L + S + 1PTB types and is now 4-17 W, 8-17 ITM with 1PTBs.

Spec Play $10 Win and Place 9 ($20) Exacta Box 1,9 ($10 tix)($20) (-146)

4th – Cepeda’s piece improved in each start at the meeting, 3 of 5 of his ITM types were FBKs in L2T. 4 of 6 of his bombs were S/up or S/out types. Lozada won 14% in sprints last season (with a +$0.24 ROI). Mr. Bennett is just on fire with L4-8s this season (5-10 Win, 7-10 ITM). Hard to not play a hot hand.

$48 Weighted Exacta Box 7,8 ($48)

$6 Trifectas 4,7,8,9/7,8/4,7,8,9 ($72) (-266)

7th – Troubled Ziadie made last start on June 28th. He won 50% and was 88% ITM with this multiple angle and was 42% W with 2TSs. Stark Ravin’ Ready went +9 above the bullet par on Nov. 14th. Requires action, but worth a play for >5-2 odds on the key end runner.

Spec Play – Conditional Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/4,9 ($40) No PLay

Total wagers today $292 +

*************************

Friday, January 1st

I’ve struggled with this card for a few days and that leaves me grasping at straws and speculating today.

Race 1

Tax Breaker went above par in N1Y win but she’s beaten regularly by Short and Sassy (3). Patrick is 50% ITM with RBs and wins his fair share with all the single angles in play here. The 1 & 7 come out of a race that has seen three runners all come back sub-par in their next starts. 4-52 lifetime Flo’s Strawberry is the ML favorite. I just can’t go there.

Spec Play $15 ATB 3 ($45)

Race 5

Minnock’s Celesse (5) showed above par total energy in first try. She looks like a good claim. Smock has crazy good angle here: 2L1-3 + TtoD 50% W, 100% ITM (6). KOC has had good success with Maiden Claimer FTSs. Five of her six FTS wins in L2T were of this variety.  Nearly half of Leading Florida Sire High Cotton’s progeny have visited the circle.

Spec Play Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/8,9 ($50)

$3 Saver Trifectas 5/1,4/8,9 ($18) Scratch 3

Total Wagers today: $113 collect $123

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 7 WT 4, 8, 9 WT 6*** WT 2, 7, 9 … $.50 .. $13.50

 Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 2, 5 WT 2, 4, 8 WT 3, 8 WT 2, 6 … $.50 .. $18.00

 Best Bet ***

****************

Wednesday, Dec. 29th

Today’s card is a bit soft on strong angles, but there are only a handful of real contenders.  So with a posture that lacks enthusiasm, we spread $158 around on three races this afternoon

Best luck to our very own Mr. Pick Four (Kevin Pussilano) today. His piece is There’s No Telling (#1) in Race 4.

Race 1 – Harvatt is now 10-13 ITM with today’s angle, but missed in first two tries at the current meeting. Callmewachawant (1)was close to par in first try. Exactas 3,8/1

Saver Win 1 (to cover the bet)

Race 2 – Ward is now 18-25 ITM with this multiple angle, he wins on the dropdown and is 3 for 6 ITM with Eddie Gallardo up this season. Exacta Key Box 2/3,4,9

Race 4

Unlike Dini who hasn’t hit the board with a FBK here in at least three years (he’s also 2-48 with 2Ss), Dominguez is 42% ITM with this type at average odds of $20-1. Schickedanz dumped Maan after poor showing in three horse field two back but McCarthy had him close to par off the short layoff. Brenda is 50% ITM with this type and tries the angle for the first time today.

UPON FURTHER REVIEW I HAVE FOUND THAT MCCARTHY IS 0-32 WITH PTBs IN L5T (only 4 ITM). This changes my outlook (obviously).

$25 Straight Exacta 1/3 ($25)

$10 Trifectas 6/1,3/1,3 ($20)

$0.50 Trifectas All/1,6/1,3,6 ($10.50)

Race 6

Delacour is 90% ITM with today’s angle if the favorite (and figures to be). Warrior’s Dance (1) was above par in last on the weeds. Matos has some solid angles here: 2L1-3 + RtS 7-13 ITM, Dropdown + RtS 6-11 ITM.  Saul also bombs with the once over + distance change angle.

$25 Exacta 1/6 ($25)

$5 Saver Trifectas 2,7,8,11/1/6 ($20)

Race 8

Rodriguez is 70% ITM(14-22) with Stretchouts and 72% ITM in 1st 3 OC. We backed Leave Er B (5) in last and do so again this afternoon. Switches to Centeno today. We also backed Cryptic Comet (8) in last and stick with the filly today. Terranova is 4-5 ITM with 2S + No Class Change types and 6-9 ITM with Stretchouts.

$25 Weighted Exacta Box 5,8 ($25)

$8 Trifectas 5,8/9/5,8 ($16)

$2 Supers 8/10,11/5/9 ($4)

***********************

Sunday, Dec. 27th

Race 1 – Reyes is 39% ITM with Rose PTB’s at average odds of $24-1 in L3T. It’s just a waiting game.

Spec Plays

$1 Trifectas 4,5,7/1/All ($15)

$0.50 Trifectas 4,5,7/All/1 ($7.50)

Race 2

KOC has two multiple angles going here: FBK + StR (5 of 7 ITM) and Shipper + Dropdown (9-38 Win). Kathy is 23-41 ITM with all FBKs at $7.60-1.

Spec Play $10 ATB 8

Race 4

Paparazzi (4) was boxed through the stretch and finished evenly in last. Struggling Boileau, my Trainer of the Year at Tampa last season is 50% W and 100% ITM if the Favorite here. Gallardo sticks. Troche wins 19% and is 50% ITM with Plain Dropdown + Shortenup types. Last two were fast early and close to par late.

Spec Play

$10 Weighted Exacta Box 4,8

$5 Trifectas 4.8/10/4,8 ($10)

Race 5

Matos wins 23% and is 54% with 2L1-3 + RtS types. Went well early on the grass on 12/9. Looks right. Tio Kanki (1) has three 2nds here at average odds of $27-1 and Harvatt is 10-11 with this angle in L2T at $12-1 odds and tries it for the first time at the meeting today.

$75 Win 4

$20 Exacta 4/1

$2 Trifectas 4/All/1 ($14)

Race 9

Harvatt has the same angle going here as in race 5.

Exacta Key Box 3/5,6

*****************

Saturday, Dec. 26th

I’m sick over Aldana Gonzalez’s $50-1 winner on Wednesday. She’s now 8-12 ITM with 2TS + Shortenups. Last week it was Scott Mckenzie’s FBK that burned us (both trainers in 2nd try with their respective angles at the meeting). That’s two that have slipped through the net now.

Race 1 – Another Ness bet against as Jamie is only 8-50 with L1-3 + S + UC types (1-3 at the current meeting). Leonard bombs with once over distance change runners and Tony (4) made the best Quirins in the field on December 12th.

Trifectas 5/1/4,6

Race 4 – Delacour has a 70% ITM angle here. Terranova’s piece (#5 Rootformejustin) has a %E that says “yes” to the StR move, but All Call (7) and Baykt (12) have the winning profile for today’s condition.

Exacta Key Box 7/4,5,12

Race 6 – Daddy’s Boo (5) went 109-100 first Tampa start winning handily at rock bottom claiming on the lawn. Rivelli got away with the class drop after Boo gave out in the mud in previous start. This lightly raced winner of 4 of 6 on the lawn certainly fits the Starter 16 condition (and this is not a particularly strong field). Ness has three-peated in 24 of 51 at the last seven meetings and he has a 90% ITM multiple angle here.

Trifectas 3,9/3,9/1,4,5,6

Spec Play – $0.50 Pick 5 3,9/6/4,7/1,8/4,9,11 (or 8 if 11 is out) ($12)

Race 7 – Hernandez has missed the break so to speak (and so have I) but he is sure to get rolling (and so am I). He won 6 of 11 and was 10-11 ITM with 2L1-3’s and is at least 30% W and 70% ITM with the other three angles in play here.  Sandino picked up check for $22K in Starter $12,500 Stakes on 12/5 and the N1X condition looks easy for this veteran campaigner. Veteran conditioner Michele Boyce made her first appearance at Tampa last season and she’s now 8-8 ITM with L1-3 + S + No Class Change starts.  This kind of a good thing won’t last long before the crowd is up to speed.

$40 Trifectas 6/1,4/3 ($80)

$25 Trifectas 6/3/1,4 ($50)

$30 Exacta 6/3 ($30)

$2.50 Saver Supers 6/2,5,7,8/3/1,4 ($20)

Total Wager $180 SCRATCH #3

Race 9 – Looks like Harty’s runners worked together on 12/14 and they matched strides to go +4 above the bullet par for 6F. Harty pops off sharp longer works and has 33% win angles for both runners here.

Exacta Box 1,8

Race 10 – Stewart has also started slowly but he’s got a live longshot here in Stranahan Dragon (4). Stewart is 10-16 ITM with L1-3 + 1PTBs and won 25% Layoff + Class Change + No Distance Change types in L5T.

ATB 4

*********

Wednesday, Dec.23rd

Race 4

Chelsie’s Chapel (9) was one click off par in first try and is our choice by default. At least McBride matches her overall strike rates with the angles. Have at Look at the others:

#1 2S 1-22, #2 2S 1-46, #3 FBK 0-19, #4 2S 0-35, #6 2S  5-117, #5,7 & 8 all sub-par by at least 12 in first try (and no win angles).

DD 9/5,6

Race 5

Ness piece was two clicks inferior to Raymond’s winner in first try of the meeting, but Raymond is 1-42 with RBs and 1-129 with UC types, while Ness is 87-115 ITM with Non-layoff 2S types and wins 39% with Shortenups. Dacosta’s piece looks roughly about the same as the 8 but Dacosta wins nearly three times as many races as Matos with today’s angles.

Belsoeur has all solid stats for five different angles here and he goes to his regular boy Ronnie Allen (go to rider from 2010-2013 at Tampa), but he’s a surrogate today for Vega, a trainer that never has runners here and Didn’t Take It (2) drops to rock bottom in 3rd off the claim. Doesn’t look right. Belsoeur is an alpha male and he gets off making bombs while moving up in class. This move might look right for Woodard, but not Yvon.

Conditional $100 Weighted Exacta Box 5,6 for 5-2 or >

$5 Saver Tris 5,6/8,9/5,6 ($20)

$3 Saver Supers 5,6/2/5,6/8,9 ($12)

DD 5,6/4

Race 6

Hinsley triples his ordinary strike rate with 2S + Shortenup types. David’s been ITM with 15 of 20 at $8.50-1 at the meeting.

**************

Sunday, Dec. 20th

I’ve been trying to find some value in this card since Thursday, hence the late post. There will be so much chalk dust today you’ll be choking on it.

Race 2

I’ve been raving about Super Beau’s (1) performance for weeks and 2 of 3 out of that race have come back strong. Bris got it wrong here. SB’s performance was well above par and they have it as a -4. This is why you have to make your own figs.

Spec Play $15 Trifectas 1/4,7/4,7

DD 1/8

Race 3

Gimmeadrink (8) is the standout SALW runner of the meeting to date. He hasn’t raced for a nickel in nearly two years. Dale Bennett tries to squeeze the last drop of drink here in last eligible start in this condition.

Win 8

DD 8/2

Race 4

Mr. Bennett dominates with 2YOs and wins 24% with Dropdowns. The condition fits like a glove.

DD 2/3

Race 5

Gonzalez accidentally hit the board with firster Chromos in debut (she never tries with these) but she is 7-10 ITM with 2TS + Shortenup types. Quirins in debut were sub-par, but you won’t find a par runner in this field.

Win and Place 3

Race 7

Vinson crushes it with Shippers and Dropdowns and is 8-14 ITM with Layoff + Class Change ($40K purse to $23K purse, a 57% drop).

Spec Play $5 Trifectas 1/3,4/3,4,7,8 ($30)

Race 10

We backed Ben Colebrook in first Tampa start and were let down, but we’ll back him again. His AEPS of $5830 speaks loudly to me. Angel Haze (3) made +4 final fraction in last at Keeneland (Shipper IV of 1.60 in L5T) a drops to a winning level today. Stormin’ Jorja (10) goes for Bradley and he is 55% ITM with L1-3 + Shortenup types and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting. Bradley’s piece also takes a sensible drop in class.

$80 Weighted Exacta Box 3,10

$10 Saver Trifectas 3,10/12/3,10

or (if the 12 is out)

$70 Weighted Exacta Box 3,10

$5 Saver Trifectas 3,10/6,8/3,10 ($20)

$2 Saver Supers 3,10/5,9/3,10/6,8 ($16)

*****************************

Saturday, Dec. 19th

Wednesday we made our first real time wager change of the meeting in Race 4 via Twitter (and were headed out of the $886 exacta). Just wanna remind everyone to follow us @tamselections. Don’t miss the changes!

Baby Race Day is my least favored racing day of the year. Lots of lightly raced types, FTSs, Shippers from unfamiliar barns, general mayhem, surprises outnumbering expected outcomes and all connections looking to shine and have bragging rights. Give me the bread and butter $10K Claimers anytime over today’s card.

But if we must play (or at least try to sort this mess out) there is only one place to begin.

Who wins with 2YO’s?

Fortunately, there is no shortage of local trainers with outstanding records with babies and our handicapping today will give extra weight to any trainer that has a record of getting it done.

Race 1

Dacosta is 8-15 Win with babies in L3T and The Last Rocket (6) chased a +5 EP (over a -10 variant).

Race 2

Loza is 5-5 ITM with FTS and 2-3 ITM with 2YOs. His last firster, Ishaq was odds-on and won by 10 and goes later today in the Inaugural Stakes.

Granitz wins only 5% with Layoffs and Shippers.

If I was playing it would be a Super 8/1,4,9/5/1,4,9

Race 3

Top 10 Owners Averill and Godolphin were 77% ITM and 46% ITM respectively last season. Nicks chases some big purses. He’s got an AEPS of $7600 in 2015. Harty was 10-18 ITM with babies and has all single angles > 33% Win here.

Exacta Box 4,7 and Saver Trifectas 4,7/1,6,9/4,7

Race 4

An interesting longshot play here. Wilkes is 3-4 ITM with 2YOs and has two separate 60+% angles in play here. He goes to my Tampa Jockey of the Year Victor Lebron.

Conditional $30 ATB 9 for 7-1 or > ($90)

$5 Exacta Key Box 9/4,7 ($20)

Race 5

Competing angles here for Queen Joan (#6). 88% ITM with 3TT’s but 0-12 with L1-3 + S + No Class Change. Flip a coin.

Race 6

Harty and Godolphin again with Cosmic Girl (4), but you knew that was coming.

Race 7

Queen Joan has Shot The Sheriff (7). She’s 8-11 ITM with babies and is 7-11 with 2S + 2TT types and 3-18 win with PTBs but 5-2? Not for me thanks.

Race 8

Unbridled Trick (8) goes for Dacosta who has monster stats here. He’s 8-15 Win with 2YOs, 47% Win with L1-3 + S + Class Change, 30% W and 50% ITM with RBs, and 52% Win and 70% ITM with RtSs. Unbridled Trick doesn’t look like much on paper but those stats are compelling.

Spec Play $1.50 Trifectas All/1,3/8 ($24)

$5 Exactas 1,3/8 ($10)

Race 9

This race is untouchable. Light up your smoke and enjoy the race.

Race 10

Reyes is 7-16 ITM with Barry Rose PTBs at average odds of $10-1. The worse they look, the more I like them. The first one of the meeting just missed for show at $22-1.

Spec Plays

$10 Place and $10 Show 10 ($20)

$0.50 Trifectas 1,2/All/10 ($10)

******************

Friday, Dec. 18th

It occurs to me that many of you may be doing your own handicapping and may not give a damn what wagers I may propose, but either way you’re here for information, so in Wednesday’s style, I’ll be providing salient insights you can use regardless of my own proclivities.

Race 1 – A good bet against. Ness wins only 15% (7-47) with L1-3 + S + UC (see Paltarevenge).

Race 2 – Terranova has a 46% (6-13) Win angle here, Shipper + Shortenup.

Race 5

First time back for runners out of my “soon to be a key race” Dec. 2nd 1st – Super Beau. After Kutschman was rolling late at the finish in the 5th to just miss on Wednesday with an above par 96-94 in a par 94-91, I’m ready to assume that indeed the SUPER BEAU RACE IS A KEY RACE. Therefore, we’re upgrading this play to one worthy of a full $110 of action.

Ness has a weakness here. He’s only 5-36 with L1-3 + S + No Class Change types in L3T (hence the 2nd position in the saver super only). If he’s OOM this one could be good.

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 1,3

$8 Trifectas 1,3/4,7,9/1,3 ($48

$2 Supers 1,3/8/1,3/4,7,9 ($12)

Race 6 – Waz is 20-27 ITM with FBKs in L5T.

Race 9 – Harvatt is 10-11 ITM with 2L1-3 + 2S + Shortenup at $12-1.

Race 10

Cryptic Comet (1) goes for Terranova who has very solid stats here. Belmont shippers have an IV of 1.69. The Comet’s been working sharply recently. John was 2-2 Win with Gallardo up last season.

Boyce’s piece is a nice bet against as she is 0-fer with RBs and UC types.

Character Witness (8) comes out of a N3L or Open 15 for 3YOs and the top three in that one had 4 wins, 3 Wins and 2-5 W, 4-5 ITM in 2015. There were three RB winners in that race also. The extra legwork should payoff here.

Rodriguez is 18-24 ITM with 1st 3OC types and wins 26% with Shortenups. Leave Er B (9) was close to par in last for Simms.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/8,9

$5 Saver Trifectas 1/3,4,6/8,9 ($30)

****************************

Wed. Dec. 16th

1st – Benne First Baby (3) makes first appearance for last season’s leading owners and super trainer Sandino Hernandez Jr. Hernandez is 100% ITM when the favorite (13-13) and BFB figures to have favoritism with Centeno in the irons.

Maragh is 39% W and 61% ITM with all dirt runners here in L5T with a +90% ROI.

The 1 & 5 have a start under their belts and both were sub-par early and late.

Boileau (6) is 1-35 with L4-8’s.

Over the Cliff is an above par dueler (APD) and we’ve seen that a couple of those have been there already (see Likeuasa friend and Tax Breaker). OTC tends to race at least every 6-8 weeks and is downgraded off the long layoff and Reyes is only 1-20 with RtS types.

Ward has been on fire with 11-21 ITM but is still only 3-33 with L4-8s.

$100 Conditional Weighted Exacta Box 2,3 for $10 or >

$8 Saver Trifectas 2,3/7/2,3 ($16)

$2 Saver Superfectas 2,3/5/2,3/1,7 ($8)

Race 2 – This one is above my pay grade. Ness won 64% with RB + UC + Favorite types (14-22). Woodard has a Ramsey claim and they won 44% at 5-2 in L10T. Super trainer Loza is 80% ITM with 3 of 4 single angles here. Hernandez is also represented and Mr. Bennett’s piece was close to par on the lawn on Opening Day.

I prefer the low hanging fruit.

Race 4

Sobarzo is 75% ITM with FBK + No Class Change types and Total Accounting (8) was just a click below par in first start of the meeting.

KOC’s piece Tour Again (10) gets my attention after dueling in the slop with Gallardo up in last down south. Kathy wins 35% with Non-layoff Shipper + Dropdown types.

Looks like Handsome Dennis (1) has gone wrong. He was well above par in February win, plummeted in class last time out, was not heavily bet and wasn’t claimed. Even a man with one eye should be raising his eyebrows on Dennis.

My beloved Charming Clyde (6) looks like his fabulous career is winding down now. I can’t begin to tell you how many tickets I cashed on ole Clyde.

$52 Weighted Exacta Box 8,10

$8 Trifectas 8,10/3,5,11/8,10 ($48)

Race 5

Kutschman (3) was 4 clicks above par in the best race of the meeting (relative to class) when Super Beau bested N2Ls and N3L’s on the card that day. I’m already convinced that it will be a key race. Feliciano is 33% ITM with 3PTB’s but his own numbers with these angles say no.

A decent bet but not for the fainthearted (of which I am one).

Race 8 and 9

Like Feliciano in race 5, Boileau has a PTB angle that he is 3-4 win with here, but again his own numbers are poor. But I’m not doing all the work for my health so I’m gonna make a little DD with Mr. Bennett’s piece in race 9, Mount Meru (1). Bennett is 7-17 win with this angle and bombed with one at $14-1 already at the current meeting.

$10 Spec Plays

R8 Win 3

R9 Win 1

R8 & R9 Daily Double 3/1

*****************

Saturday, Dec. 12th – Race 8

The last 14 on the dirt have now been won by horses on the lead or < 1/2 a beaten length at the 2nd Call. This creates an issue for our top choice because an unfavorable bias may well be in play. Hence…. State Flag (4) goes for Shane Learn, a hobbyist of sorts, with only 141 starters in eight years and only an occasional runner here at the Downs. Nevertheless, he has an AEPS of $3800 (better than the vast majority of Tampa trainers) and State Flag accounted for virtually all of his ITM finishes in 2015. Unlike the rest of these, the 6YO gelding has no conventional handicapping defects to speak of and certainly should be there at the finish, however he’s a bit late at the 2nd call and has only one sprint win (and tries a shorter sprint here). Gimme a Double (1) perplexes. The beaten favorite in last two had no excuses, but he goes for Darien Rodriguez (25% W and 56% ITM at Tampa in L3T). Rodriguez is nearly 70% ITM with Dropdowns and Stretchouts in L3T. Wondering how he moved up in class but was the favorite in both tries, we note that those two races were of the weakest of N1X’s, with additional eligiblity for N2Ls (and GAD was beaten by some of the latter). GAD is looking more like a nickel claimer that was razor sharp in late spring and early summer. Feliciano’s piece looks wrong on the dropdown off the claim (he’s not Ness after all). Ben had much better luck moving up in class off the claim winning 50% with that type in L5T, but winning only one when on the dropdown during the same period. He also wins only 4% with Shippers here.

$4 Trifectas All/4/1,3,6 ($72)

$1 Trifectas All/1,3,6/4 ($18)

Saver Win 4 as needed to cover the bet.

Total wager $120

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 2, 6 WT 1***, 3 WT 2, 9 WT 1, 2, 6 … $.50 .. $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 4, 7 WT 1, 6 WT 1, 6 WT 7, 8, 9 … $.50 .. $18.00 Best Bet

*********************************

Friday, Dec. 11, 2015 My antennas are not buzzing today, but these three spec plays could be productive. Race 1 – Spec Play $36 The Reyes/Rose connection makes its first appearance here. Reyes is 4 of 5 ITM with Rose PTB + StR angle. Diana was 2nd here at $100-1 last season. Reyes needs an angle to generate a price so he skips the N2L condition today. $2 Trifectas 3,4,5,7/6/3,4,5,7 ($24) $1 Trifectas 3,4,5,7/3,4,5,7/6 ($12)

**************************

Race 6 – Spec Play $52.50 Guciardo rarely misses with the L4-8 + S + No Class Change + Stretchout angle. Gallardo opts to ride Ms. B. High and if I didn’t have Guciardo’s MATP, I might think he was high, but this one is likely to be well intended. $7 Exactas 6,7,9/5 ($21) $1 Trifectas 6,7,9/All/5 ($21) $0.50 Trifectas 5/6,7,9/All ($10.50)

**************************

Race 8 – Spec Play – $52 Oliwa went 84-79 last time out in a par 84-87 while beaten by 18 (the winner ran off with it by 11) so we’re of the impression that Oliwa’s effort was much better than it may appear. Then we find that her conditioner, Randy Klopp is 6-12 ITM with 2L + Stretchout types and that he bombs with FBK + Distance Change types. Gets another chance in only second start at rock bottom. $40 Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/4,10 ($40) $2 Trifectas 4,7,10/5/4,7,10 ($12) Today’s total wagers $140.50 (All three of these spec plays will be considered one exotic wager for recordkeeping purposes). ***************************

Wed. Dec. 9th Race 9 Nagle’s piece made +2 final fraction in last start of winter campaign after being claimed for $75K. The granddaughter of Tiznow dueled to the head of the lane in last with good support at the windows and looks right on the dropdown again today. Nagle won 5 of 7 with this type at $5-1 odds in L5T. Centeno is up. Potts has multiple ITM angles here. 2L1-3 + Shortenup 75% ITM, Shipper + Shortenup 54% ITM, with HVG up 63% ITM (all L5T). Bradley is dangerous with lightly raced 3YOs on the grass and he goes to my Tampa Jockey of the Year Victor Lebron. KOC won 20% and was nearly 50% ITM with 1st 3 PTB types in L4T. Ya never know. McBride tried today’s angle only four times in L5T and never hit the board. Reardon is a snake. He bombed with two Layoff + UC + Turf types last season. One had 7 wins but the other looked just like this one (had never hit the board lifetime). Conditional $50 Win 4 for > 8/5
Conditional $40 Weighted Straight Exactas 4/1,2,6 for minimum net return of 5-2 ($100 all combinations)
$2 Saver Trifectas 1,2,6/4/1,2,6 ($12)
$0.50 Saver Trifectas 4/3,10/1,2,6 ($6)

Total Wager $108

************************
Saturday, Dec. 5th

Race 3 – Spec Play $20 DD 2/7

R3 – Rhone won 5 of 6 (100% ITM) with this angle in L5T.
R4 – Boileau’s 44 month layoff has been working off the hook at Starting Point, including a five panel +9 earlier this week. Bob had a secret weapon apprentice in Osorio Jr in L3T. Could Ramirez be his new boy?
Onmyway (7) doesn’t have to beat much.
#1 Trainer 1-51 on the Dirt in L5T, #4 Trainer 0-52 with Shippers, #5 Trainer 1-39 with RtSs, #6 Trainer 4% Win with all Layoffs (4-108 in L4T), #8 Boileau is 1-29 with FTSs.

Saver Exacta 3/7 if live in the 4th (to cover the will pay value)
**************************************************************************
Race 5
Scott McKenzie rarely strikes with anything but FBKs. He was 3-9 Win , 5-9 ITM with these last season and has bombed twice with FBKs in L2T. Kathy’s Kitten (2) made a +5 2nd call Quirin on Opening Day before weakening in the stretch and while outgunned by the odds-on favorite and two bombs (that figured prominently in my scratched exacta play in that race). Today, the Ramsey bred faces softer and could surprise. The odds will be right.

$3 Trifectas 5,7,11/2/1,5,6,7,8,11 ($45)
$3 Trifectas 5,7,11/5,7,11/2 ($18)
$0.50 Trifectas 1,6,8/2,5,7,11/2,5,7,11 ($18)
$25 Win 2

Total Wager $106

*****************************

Friday, Dec. 4th Race 8

Don’tstop The Party (1) is 9 of 12 ITM at related distances (and was 4th in the other three tries) and has hit the board in both tries with the RtS move. Panell was Riga’s regular rider last season, but his “go to” was ED Rodriguez (3-9 W, 6-9 ITM). One of only a few older contenders here, Don’tstop The Party (1) certainly fits well for Rigattieri (winner of $27 Mil lifetime).

Fiesta Rose (2) won an OC here in the spring, but Ward is 1-25 (updated) Win with L4-8’s.

Reyes(3) is only 2% Win with Non-layoff Shippers but 6-14 ITM with the Dropdown + Stretchout.

Dacosta’s piece, Cowgirl Spirit (5) has four strong angles in play here. L1-3 + S 47% Win, S + Stretchout 7-15 Win, RB 30% Win and S + FDLC up 56% ITM. Other than $14K win at Mvr where she beat a bunch of Tdn and Mnr types, she hasn’t seen the circle in awhile. MATPs are compelling nonetheless.

$60 Win 1
$2 Saver Trifectas All/1/2,5 ($28)
$2 Saver Trifectas 2,5/1/2,3,5,7 ($12)

Mr. Pick Fours Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 3, 4, 6 WT 7, 9 WT 5, 10 WT 5, 10, 11 … $.50 .. $20.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 2, 4, 7 WT 1, 3, 7 WT 1, 7 WT 4*** … $.50 .. $12.00

Best Bet ***

**************************
After a great card on Saturday, business returns to the usual with a card full of Alpo Stakes today.

It’s no coincidence that our FREE PLAY day is Wednesday.

Race 1 – Red Hot Ralph (1) goes for Jeffries, who tried the 1Mi Turf to 7F Dirt move twice in L5T and hit the board both times. Jeffries has gone to Allen when well intended at the last three meetings. Owner John Prete is > 50% ITM lifetime from 141 starts with a $4K AEPS (no small feat). Ralph made the 2nd sharpest 3F work of the pre-season last week. Looks right by all conventional handicapping standards.
Also note that the ML favorite’s trainer (I never look at the ML) is 0-27 with all Layoffs in L3T and that Richardson also went to Allen in L3T but Allen opts to ride the 1.

Conditional $70 Win 1 for >5-2
Saver $1.00 Tri All/1/All ($30) typo corrected

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 5, 6, 8 WT 2, 4, 5, 9 WT 5*** WT 3, 7, 9 … $.50 … $24.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5, 9 WT 2, 4, 6, 9 WT 5, 6, 11 WT 5 … $.50 … $12.00
Best Bet ***

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Saturday – Nov. 28th
In honor of Opening Day, we’re posting action plays in every race (but I won’t be making a habit of it). Good luck and good racing!

1st – Hinsley is about 50% ITM with all the angles in play here and Hawthorne shippers maintain an IV of 1.33 in L5T. DB won 30% with sharp working (5F) runners in L5T. He is 64% ITM with this multiple angle and is 75% ITM if the favorite here.
Exacta Box 1,6 Saver Trifectas 1,6/4,11/1,6

2nd – Bradley bombs with several angles here and gets up for a piece off the long layoff and on the dropdown. Vinson is 8-14 ITM at Tampa with Layoff + Class Change types. Smith is 7-11 ITM with FTSs in L4T. Sharp Wesfield Farm work is encouraging. Klopp went to M. Allen last season with good success and he has some success with PTBs.
Exacta Key Box 7/2,5 Saver Trifectas 2,5,7/6,12/2,5,7

3rd – Ness is 22-22 ITM with Non-layoff Shipper + RB + UC types. Dale Bennett won 50% and was 5 of 6 ITM with this angle in L3T. You’ll have to get creative to get a price in this one.
Trifectas 4,10/4,10/2,9

4th – Only a few sires have out-produced Mass Media (29 Winners) in L5T and Keeneland shippers have an impact value of 1.66 in L5T. DB is 7-11 ITM with L1-3 + S + Dropdown types and he won 25% and was 50% ITM with Morales in the irons last season. Media Time was a click above par in maiden win here last spring. KOC has a 35% win angle here (8-23) but Battle Tested can’t seem to pass the N2L test. Everything about Nyoman is right except his post position. The Red Rocket is up for Hinsley here.
$70 Weighted Exacta Key Box 9/7,12
$3 Saver Trifectas 7,9/2,5,12/7,9,12 ($30)

5th – KOC surprises with this angle, winning 4 of 8 at average odds of $14-1.
Win and Place 3 Saver Trifectas 1,2,7/1,2,7/3

6th – We’ve got high hopes for Loza this season. In his brief career he’s been crushing it. He’s got an AEPS of $5046, did not miss the board with 2YO’s or FTSs last season, won 52% when the favorite and comes off a great GP meeting. Ryan surrogates for Pletcher here. The latter was 7-9 with this angle here at the Downs recently.
Exacta Box 8,9 Saver Trifectas 8,9/2,3,6/8,9

7th – Ness’ piece made +6 Final Fraction (FF) a month ago at Laurel. Looks tough versus this bunch with Gallardo up.
Exacta Key Box 4/5,9

8th – SR Herenandez Jr. is having a career best year in 2015 and figures to have another great Tampa meeting in 2015-2016. He was 20-22 ITM with Stretchouts last season and was 89% ITM when the favorite. Gets strong action with Gallardo aboard here. Queen Joan’s piece figures strongly on the Rightback.
Exacta Box 1,3 Saver Trifectas 1,3/6,7/1,3 Saver Supers 1,3/4,8/1,3/6,7

9th – Exacta Key Box 5/2,7

10th – Hernandez was 100% ITM (13-13) with the L1-3 + Favorite angle last season and appears likely to be the top choice after dueling in last, with PP1 and with Centeno riding. 8-1 ML is way off the mark.
Conditional Win and Place 1 for $5-2 or > at post time.

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections:

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 9 WT 7***, 11, 12 WT 3, 7, 8 WT 9 …$.50 … $13.50

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4, 7, 8, 10 WT 3, 4 WT 2, 5, 8 WT 6, 12 … $.50 …24.00

Best Bet ***
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June 30th – Day 91

Save 50% on next years subscription (FREE PLAYS ONLY ON WEDNESDAY)! Contact me at tamselections@gmail.com

The Summer Festival is a can of worms that gets opened once a year for two race days, then is summarily sealed up tight again for another year.

The summer weather in Florida can wreak havoc on the racing surfaces, especially the lawn and the trainers and jockeys who make an appearance are often strangers to us, subsequently resulting in extraordinary over betting of the regulars.

In the previous two Summer Festivals we saw 47% of the all races won by the favorite at average odds of $1.10-1, and 75% by one the top three choices, with only two bombs in the Winner’s Circle.

So what do we know about Summer Festival 2015?

I can tell you that Chad Stewart has crushed the last two, with 5 Wins in 10 tries and 9 ITM. And that Robert Boileau is 9-15 ITM and that’s not bad for a 27% ITM trainer.

Good luck and good racing!

Race 2 – Turf Only

(1) Tutti Sano goes for Manning and he won 10 of 12 with L4-8 + S + Dropdown at the last nine meetings and is 67% Win when the Favorite in L4T. He rarely enters a PTB and this tempers our enthusiasm for the 3YO, especially since owner Michael Feriole is only 5-39 over the last seven years and has a poor AEPS, but Tutti went +12 from the gate at Oakridge just five days ago.

(2) Nancy Harris is 1-22 on the grass here in L5T.

(3) Pedro Posadas is a rookie trainer who is doing alright but today’s PTB trainer, Luis Dominguez is 0-50 on the Turf in L5T. Surrogacy is suspected as Master Jordan remains with owner Jack Cannon and MJ looks like the best turf runner Dominguez has had in awhile.

(4) Another sharp working Manning runner with the same angle as the (1). Dennis is 50% ITM with all 2TSs in L5T. He owns most of his winners. Rosie is up.

(5) Arterburn has no Non-layoff Shipper wins in L5T, but he’s >50% ITM with all the other angles in play, so Black Stash, who showed something in debut, gets a piece.

(6) Carey is 4% Win on the grass in L4T and has not tried the FTS + FTT angle during the same period.

$60 Win 4

$10 Saver Trifectas 3/4/1,5 ($20)

$5 Saver Super 1,5/4/1,3,5/1,3,5 ($20)

Total Wager $100

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (1-4) …. 1, 4, 5 WT 3 WT 2, 6 WT 1 … ($1.00) $6.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1, 5 WT 2, 5, 8 WT 5*** WT 5, 7, 8 … ($1.00) $18.00
Best Bet ***

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Sunday, May 3, 2015

On the last day of the regular meeting, we make things playful with selections in every race before our great summer/fall hibernation begins (wake me up for the Summer Festival).

1st – Williams has his best luck with RB + UC types and Springforward Alex (2) was 6 clicks above par in first off the layoff win. Indygo Red (3) goes for Matos 33% ITM in Dirt Routes in L5T. Red has been there half the time at the distance.

Exacta Box 2,3

2nd – KOC runner looks for a savior. Kathy is only 2-33 with L9ups in L5T. Don’t get sucked in.

Exacta Key Box 1/2,3,5

3rd – This one speaks for itself.

Exacta 7/1

Trifecta 7/6/1

4th – Kathy’s Kitten (8) has a very clean record for an 8YO claimer. Ness won 50% with three-peats in L4T. This season he’s 8-25 with RB + UC types. The Red Rocket is up on Downing’s piece and he is 5-8 ITM with today’s angle at $8-1 odds.

Exacta Box 6,8

Saver Tri 6,8/9/6,8

5th – Pick 3  3,4,6/9/3,7,9

6th – Worth a Buck (9) is worth $100 IMO. The oldtimer improved in each successive start at the meeting and Barbaran is now 8-12 ITM with No Change types in L4T.

$50 Win and Place 9

7th – Trifectas 7/3,9/3,9

8th – An exciting season ending play (if you’re up). In the 9th, Delacour has these types ready for a best effort (so does Motion, the PTB). Thunder on Tap (2) has the best looking profile for the N1X condition here. Made the best Quirins in the field in last.

Pick 3 – All/2,5/All

Have a great summer and fall!

Regards,

Johnny B. (tamselections@gmail.com)

Thanks to Mr. Pick Four for his great selections! (More three of fours than one can reasonably be expected to endure…)

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 3, 6, 7, 9 WT 6, 8, 9 WT 6 WT 6, 9 …($.50) $15.00
Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 6 WT 6 WT 6 WT 6 …$5.00
Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 5, 7 WT 4, 5, 10 WT 5, 10 WT 1, 2, 5, 11 … ($.50) $36.00
Late Pic 4 (7-10) … 5 WT 5 WT 5 WT 5 …$5.00

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Saturday, May 2nd

Race 5

A good ‘capping race with profiles available for all but Cascallares (3).

Cataldi is 9-11 ITM with FBK + StR types in L4T and Picadilly Gal (9) was above par at the finish in last.

PPs 1-5 have won 39 of last 45 and front runners nearly half of the dirt races since April 11 (29-64).

Barbaran wins only 7% with UC types but Winnie (1) was close to par in last. Horacio bombed with a zipper recently from PP1 (HB Warrior).

Mr. Bennett and Centeno have been a hot team with 12 wins and 36-51 ITM. L’s Lady (2) was sub-par in big win but Bennett is >50% ITM with todays angle.

Rountree has a 5-8 Win angle here and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting, but April Sonnet’s (5) numbers are very weak.

Musket Mary (8) is downgraded as Mr. Bennett goes to Wales for the very first time at the meeting.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 9/1,2,5

$3 Saver Trifectas 6,7,8/9/1,2,5 ($27)

Total Wager $127

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 4, 6, 7 WT 1, 4, 9 WT 7*** WT 1, 3, 8 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 4, 7, 8 WT 1, 4 WT 1, 6 WT 2, 6, 10 … ($.50) $24.00
Best Bet ***

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Friday, May 1st

Race 10

This races focuses on two runners, one long and one short.

Benne First Baby (11) made big numbers in first off the layoff and shortens up today. Goes for the super trainer Hernandez, but PP11 is a hurdle to overcome.

Pica Pica (10) goes for Scace and she tries both of these two angles for the first time at the meeting and I like that. FBK + Shortenup 12-17 ITM in L3T and FBK + Dropdown 7-10 ITM in L3T. Switches to Willie Martinez. Quirins have been sub-par but close.

$40 Straight Exacta 11/10

$5 Trifectas 11/1,4,5,6,7,9/10 ($30)

$2.50 Trifectas 1,4,5,6,7,9/10,11/10,11 ($30)

Total Wager $100

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 5 WT 1, 3*** WT 1, 4, 6 WT 4, 7, 9 … ($.50) $27.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 3, 8 WT 4, 5, 7 WT 2, 6, 8, 9 WT 11 … ($.50) $18.00
Best Bet ***

 ******************************************

Wednesday – April 29th

Race 6

The Firestones are 36 (14-6-3) here at Tampa in L4T and Delacour is 63% ITM with 2TS + 2TT types in L4T at average odds of $4-1. Delacour/Centeno combo is 15-17 ITM at the meeting with 11wins.

The 2 & 5 have decent Quirins, but I can’t make a case for either trainer.

$80 Weighted Exacta Key Box 9/3,4,6,7

$4 Saver Trifecta 3,4,6,7/2,5/9 ($32)

$2 Saver Trifectas 2,5/9/3,4,6,7 ($16)

Race 8

Manning draws in. Desperate for 2nd win at the waning meeting, he’s gotta be all out here. Fehsenfeld (12) has the best final fractions, is always there and Centeno sticks. Shuh should go back to Mnr where he belongs…

$5 Trifecta 12/All/All ($105)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (1-4) …. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 WT 1, 3, 6 WT 2, 3 WT 4 … ($.50) $15.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1***, 7 WT 1, 2, 3 WT 2, 4 WT 3, 5, 12 … ($.50) $18.00
Best Bet ***

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Sunday, April 26th

Getting tired of being burnt by Ness, but long-term research verifies that betting his runners regularly will lighten the wallet over time.

Race 1
Ness lost 13 of 21 as the favorite with today’s angle at the current meeting and has dropped from 86% ITM with the angle overall in P3T to 58% this year.

$1 Speculative Pick 3 – 1,4,5/5/All ($21)

Race 2

Ethan’s Tune (5) has issues (obviously) but he went 100-90 in last while beaten by 11 (today’s par is 94-94) and those Quirins are untouchable here.

Wild Winter (4) was sub-par in maiden win and a history of gate problems makes for a bad bet.

$50 Win 5
$1 Saver Trifecta 6,8/5/2,3,4,6,7,8 ($12)
$1 Speculative Pick 3 – 5/All/1,3,5,6,8 ($35)

Total Wager $118

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 6, 7 WT 5, 8 WT 2, 4, 8, 10 WT 1, 8 … ($.50) $24.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 2, 3, 6 WT 3, 8 WT 5*** WT 1, 4, 6, 8 … ($.50) $16.00
Best Bet ***

*************************************

Saturday, April 25th

Race 3

This is our poetic inevitability race of the season (I wish it involved Lucie Herkova but you can’t have it all).

Back for Dinner (6) won on the FBK + Dropdown one year ago today, and tries the angle again here. History repeats itself. Followed that up missing by a head at today’s distance a week later.

We made our 2nd biggest score of the meeting with Ubide’s Giselle Ma Belle (5) (see March 4th 1st). Max is better than 50% ITM with these angles, but Gilberto Laiz is up? Then out of the blue, I stumble on this Bloodhorse article by my colleague Michael Compton. It must be a sign.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91464/rider-gil-laiz-breezing-along-at-obs

$56 Weighted Exacta Box 5,6

$10 Saver Trifectas 5,6/7/5,6 ($20)

$0.50 Saver Supers 5,6/1,3,4/5,6,7/All ($24)

Total Wager $100

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Friday, April 24th

Race 4

LG’s Little Man (2) has all three lifetime wins here at Tampa in sprints. The 6YO went 106-85 in last at 8.18F (today’s par is 98-98) and was six clicks faster early than Holiday Boy (3) who went in the next race on the same day in last. Sandy is better than 50% ITM with both FBKs and RtSs but has no win angle here. However, after lagging behind all season, front runners (particularly inside speed) has come to life since April 11th, winning 20 of last 42, well above their historic Track Profile rate of about 25%. Switches to Gallardo.

$28 DD combo with Ness’s Piece in the 3rd is too good to pass up…Race 3 $50 DD 6/2

Conditional $25 W & P for 3-1 or >

otherwise

$1.50 Trifectas All/2/All ($63)
Saver Win 2 to cover the bet ($20)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 6*** WT all(7) WT 2, 5, 7 WT 6, 7 … ($.50) $21.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. all(7) WT 2, 4 WT 3 WT 3, 8, 9 … ($.50) $21.00
Best Bet ***

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Wed., April 22nd

1st

Outrun Em All (1) was well above par in only FAST start, must get top billing.

Smock got checks in 7 of 13 starts in the last two weeks of the last two meetings and is 7-16 ITM with FTSs in L3T. Gallardo rides.

Mr. Bennett is 41-57 ITM with L1-3 + 2OC types in L4T but faint hearted Antoine’s (4) gives me the willies with 8-wide Willy Martinez up.

$40 Straight Exacta 1/5

$2 Saver Tri 1/All/5 ($10)

4th

KOC is 30%W and 60% ITM with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types in L4T. Gallardo is up on Pirradazis (6). The 4YO was par twice on the grass last season.

Wasiluk has a new angle at the last two meetings, the Plain Fastback. He’s now 13-22 ITM in L2T at average odds of $7-1.

Too short…we are off this.

$40 Weighted Exacta Box 6,9

5th

Mr. Bennett is 18-22 ITM with this angle and Advantage Please (2) was close to par in first OC.

Harvatt has 23 Plain Distance Change bombs in L2T at average odds of $13-1. Worth a shot.

Ward is 17-31 with L1-3 + No Class Change types in L4T. So Frank (10) has a clean record.

$40 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/7

$5 Saver Trifectas 2,7/1,3,5,9/2,7 ($40)

Total Wager $130

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 5*** WT 4, 6, 8, 9 WT 2, 3 WT 1, 5, 9 …($.50) $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 5, 7 WT 2, 3, 7 WT 3, 5, 8 WT 7 … ($.50) $13.50
Best Bet ***

**********************************

Sunday, April 19th

Race 7

Lightly raced Spanish Concert (3) has been used with the greatest care. She was above par in last two races here last season and won handily in 14-15 debut. RoHo and KOC are 9-30 Win and 14-30 ITM at the current meeting. She has nowhere to go but up. Should shake off sub-par pretenders after 4 panels.

Cowgirl Spirit (1) has had good success here in sprints and this is (most likely) the last stop on the train for the 14-15 meeting. First try is excused as Dacosta rarely tries in first off the long layoff. Didn’t show much in next two over GOOD tracks but usually doesn’t. Dacosta is >50% ITM with these angles. It’s now or never.

Ness is vulnerable here. He’s only 4-34 (12% Win) with Layoff + S + No Class Change types in L4T.

$25 Trifectas 1,3/1,3,5/1,3,5 ($100)

$5 Saver Supers 3/1,5/2,4,6,7/1,5 ($40)

Mr. Pick Four’s

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 6 WT 6, 7, 8 WT 7 WT 3, 4, 5 … ($.50) $13.50

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 3, 5, 6 WT 5, 8 WT 2, 4, 6, 9 WT 1*** … ($.50) $16.00
Best Bet ***

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Saturday, April 18

Race 3

Al’s Jubilee (3) has superior Quirins and O’Connell has high strike rates with FBKs and Stretchouts. Went well against the bias (three back) and followed up with above par effort.

Dacosta is now 13-16 ITM with RtS types in L4T and is >50% ITM with all four angles in play here but Quirins are soft. Won with -11 EP on the off track in last (and with the bias).

Simons Hope (7) gets the nod over Better Man, as both Gallardo and Allen forsake. The Padilla/Allen combo is 9 (2-4-1) at the meeting (the best record among all the riders he’s gone to).

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 3,7

$20 Trifectas 3,7/4/3,7 ($40)

$3 Saver Trifectas 3,7/2,6/3,4,7 ($24)

Total wager $124

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. All(7) WT 9 WT 1, 2, 8*** WT 2, 5 … ($.50) $21.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 4, 6 WT 4, 7, 8, 10 WT 1, 2, 5 WT 4 … ($.50) $18.00
Best Bet ***

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Friday, April 17th

Race 6

AE Hero Wisdom (11) was necked out by Delightful Daisy (in a blanket finish for the place in last) and the latter was necked out for the win by Miss Well Molded (RB winner also out of the 3/11 race) in next start for $16K. Final fractions in last two were one click off par. Looks right versus this bunch, with most reaching awfully high.

$50 Win 11

$50 DD 11/5 SCRATCHED

Race 7

Beach Splash (5) must have gone up to the Secretary’s office and held a hoof to her head to get these race conditions. Starter $16K for a filly with one start for $16K and back to back above par wins. It doesn’t get much better than this.

Loza’s piece won by 10 but was sub-par, attenuating our enthusiasm for Majesticmasquerade (7).

Gimmedapurse (2) beat older but with an 83 in a par 93.

Mr. Bennett is 21-27 ITM with FBK + Favorite types with 13 winners. Roma’s Sister (8) has to get a piece if favored at the windows.

Conditional $100 Win  5 for 8-5 or >

Saver Exacta 8/5 (to cover, including the DD if live, but only if 8 is the favorite)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 5, 6 WT 4, 7, 8 WT 9 WT 3, 8 … ($.50) $9.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 5, 7 WT 1, 5, 7 WT 6, 9, 10 WT 2*** … ($.50) $9.00
Best Bet ***

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Wednesday, April 15th

With a card as bad as this, we expect something wild (and favorable) to happen and we leave most of it in the hands of the racing gods.

Race 2 – $1.00 Saver Pick 3 All WT All WT 4 ($35) Upgrades to a buck after 2 scratches in race 2

Race 4 – Odlum (4) spent vast majority of 2 & 3YO campaigns looking for the winner’s circle on the grass (with no luck), but was ITM in both tries here in dirt sprints (in 2013). He found a winning way going shorter last spring before returning to the wrong distance and surface again. In first try off the long layoff at seven panels, Odlum went 97-92, making the best EP in today’s field and he returns to a dash today (with a par EP of 97), while reuniting with Amiss. 15-1 is very generous.

$1.50 Trifectas All/4/All ($84) upgrades off strong action and the scratch

$0.50 Trifectas All/All/4 ($36)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 5, 7 WT 1, 3, 4, 6 WT 3, 6, 10 WT 4, 7 … ($.50) $24.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5, 9 WT 4, 5, 7, 9 WT 1, 3 WT 6*** …($.50) $8.00

*********************************

Wed., April 8th
Race 9

On March 11th, we discussed the possible virtues of giving extra credit to a runner going today if that runner was not expected to perform in last (and didn’t) and that trainer has a record of getting it done with today’s angle (and is expected to). The trainer was Gonzalez and the circumstances were exactly the same as today. In that race, we were necked out of our saver tri when One Way Talk finished up close but 4th at 16-1. Now Aldana is 0-14 with FTSs and 7-9 ITM (8-9 including the near miss) with 2TS + Shortenup types. Here we go again…

In last, Call Me Clever (6) was vying for the lead inside in the stretch when Pickfair bolted to the inside causing Call Me Clever to lose all chance before finishing evenly with an above par 91 (today’s par is 88). Mr. Bennett is 15-18 ITM with today’s angle (and the PTB, Barbaran happens to be 2-2 Win with the same angle).

M.R. Thomas is 7-32 Win and 14-32 ITM with FTSs in L4T and 3-3 ITM at the current meeting. Does he miss (he’s certainly due to) or keep the streak going?

$44 Weighted Exacta Box 3,6
$15 Trifectas 3,6/7/3,6 ($30)
$7 Trifectas 7/3,6/3,6 ($14)
$3.00 Saver Trifectas 3,7/5,9,10/6 ($18)

Total Wager $106

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. all(6) WT 1, 2, 3, 8 WT 6*** WT 3, 7 … ($.50) $24.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 5, 9 WT 3, 4, 5, 7 WT 6, 9 WT 2, 9 … ($.50) $24.00
Best Bet ***
*****************************
Saturday, April 4th

In Race 8 – Ziadie has a 42% W and 85% ITM angle here with R Sassy Lass (6). Ekati’s Phaeton, winner of the Lass’ last, came back to win a Grade II going longer and another out of that race and beaten by six was 3rd in 150K Stake. Innovative Idea (see two back) was up close in an N1X here at the Downs since. Power owners Averill & Silver Oak are 17-34 Win or Place lifetime. Gallardo is up.

$60 Trifecta 6/5/3
$25 Saver Trifecta 5/6/3
$10 Saver Super 5,6/5,6/8/3 ($20)

Race 9 $1 Saver Pick 3 –  All WT 1,5,11 WT 4 ($30)

Race 10 $70 Weighted DD 6,9/4

In Race 11 – Again it’s Ziadie. 40% W and 80% ITM here with L1-3 + S + RtS. IMO Elusive Harmony (4) fits the condition best. Gallardo again.

Total Wager $205

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (1-4) ….3, 4, 8 WT 1, 5 WT 7, 8, 9 WT 4 …. ($.50) $9.00

Mid Pic 4 (5-8) …. 3, 6, 7 WT 3, 4, 5, 8 WT 2***, 7 WT 5, 6, 8 … ($.50) $36.00
Late Pic 4 (9-12) …. 1, 9 WT 5, 6, 9 WT 4, 5, 7, 8 WT 1, 4, 5 … ($.50) $36.00
Best Bet ***

**************************

Friday, April 3rd

$5 Race 8 Pick 3 – 10 WT 4 WT 2,3,8,9 ($20) SCRATCHED

$1 Race 8 Saver Pick 3 – 10 WT 1,9 WT 2,3,8,9 ($8)SCRATCHED

Race 9
$25 DD 4/9

Race 10 – Turf Only

Gift Receipt (9) made big Quirin of 107 in last win here, then went 106 in Lightning City Stakes just 18 days later. Today’s par is 100. She been following the money since then with good success. Both conditioner Ewing and Owner, Bantry Farms have AEPSs above $4K (better than the vast majority of both here at Tampa). Horsestreet calls this a significant class drop from a 107.4 to a 104.9.

Potts struggled last season after being our poster boy for Trainer Profiling in 2012-2013, but he’s doing alright and has a 10-11 ITM in L3T angle going here, the Layoff + Shortenup.

Deaton piece went 106.5 in last and he wins 29% on the lawn in Oldsmar. RB for a major piece would not surprise

Generous odds have this converted to a $33 ATB play.

$70 Weighted Exacta Key Box 9/3,8
$5 Saver Trifectas 2,9/2,9/3,8 ($20)
$2 Saver Trifectas 9/1,7,11/2,3,8 ($18)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 4, 6 WT 4, 9 WT 2, 3, 5, 9 WT 5*** … ($.50) $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4, 6, 7 WT 5,m6, 10 WT 1, 4 WT 2 … ($.50) $9.00

*************************

Wed. April 1st

Race 8

Binks Forest (5) is ITM 10-19 on the lawn and Mr. Wright is 11-20 ITM on the surface in L5T. The 7YO has some solid turf numbers and was an up close 3rd here with Vega up  at $8-1 in the race before the last at the bottom of your PP. First off the layoff was just to get the kinks out.

Tattaglia (10) has big final fractions, Hinsley has a 9-13 ITM angle here (2L1-3 + 2S + Shortenup) and he’s 5-7 ITM with Campbell up at the meeting (including three bombs).

$10 Exacta Box 5,10 ($20)

$3 Trifectas 5,10/4,7,9/5,10 ($18)

$30 Weighted DDs 5,10/3 ($30)

$1.50 Pick 3’s  5,10/1,3,4,7,10/1,3 ($30)

Total Wager $98

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Personal business has me away from the races again until Wednesday. Good luck this weekend!

Sunday, March 29th

Race 8

Mott is 100% ITM with 2L + 2S types (6-6) in L4T, Seeking (3) has big final fractions and FDLC has been hot recently with 8 winners since last Friday.

Inside Out (5) was boxed to mid-stretch then made awkward crab-like move to get clear, then was going well at the finish. Delacour has a 36% Win angle here (L1-3 + 3TS + 3TT).

$80 Weighted Exacta Box 3,5

$7 Saver Trifectas 3,5/1,4,7/3,5 ($42)

$2 Saver Supers 3,5/11,12/3,5/1,4,7 (if the AE(s) get in).

Mr. Pick Four’s

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 5, 7, 9 WT 1, 3, 8, 9 WT 1, 2, 9 WT 4, 10 … ($.50) $36.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 7, 8, 9 WT 3, 5, 6 WT 5*** WT 3, 6, 7 … ($.50) $18.00
Best Bet ***

***************************************

Saturday, March 28th

Race 3

In a race that looks more like an open $8K than a $25K claimer, Grilledhamn’cheese (7) must get top billing.  This is a par 105-103 that I’ve projected to go in about 98-96 in light of the weakness of this field.

Hyland’s piece went 102 in turf dash last time out. Thirteen months ago, she went 107 in the Lightning City Stakes . Her last on the dirt was a 5F dash at Churchill two months earlier in an open $40K claimer, where she finished up close.

The 1 has had trouble racing with elders, the 2 is cheap (but has numbers close to the best of the rest), Raymond (3) is 1-124 with UC moves.

The 4 & 6 had the bias with them in last but couldn’t get it done, but Indy Breeze came back to win an OC$10K on the Turf at GS and Miss Well Molded (5th in that race) came back to win here at Tampa, going two turns on the grass.

$70 Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/4,6

$5 Saver Trifectas 7/1,2,3,5/4,6 ($40)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 4, 6 WT 1, 5, 8 WT 5, 7 WT 2, 3 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (8-11) …. 2, 4, 8, 9 WT 1, 3, 9 WT 2, 5, 8 WT 1*** … ($.50) $18.00
Best Bet ***

*********************************

Friday, March 27th

Looks like an off track today. Gallardo has 49 off track wins in L2T and 13 Wins and 26 ITM in the last 7 off track race days in Feb. & March. Gallardo has a mount in every race today.

2nd – Turf Only with the rail at 0 or 12 (preferably 0)

Aschinger is 6-6 ITM with Shortenups at the meeting and Lots o’ Lex was above par in last two. Aschinger’s other piece will be a Shortenup today also (-204 feet with the rail at 0, -154 feet at 12 feet).

Exacta Box 1,7

Saver Trifecta 1/3/7

Race 7 – Off Track Only

Guyana Star (6) was par in last two, McCooey is okay Off The Claim, Gallardo is in the irons.

Samsonian (11) came through for our biggest score of the meeting, and we’ve already told you about power owner Julian Demora’s stats.

Exacta Box 6,11 or Win 6 if the MTO is out.

Race 8 – OFF TRACK ONLY

Scorpion Time (2) impressed me with big, ground gobbling strides in last, closing late and running past the leaders after the wire with a +2.5 Final Fraction. Gatis is 40% Win, 74% ITM with Turf to Dirt types.

Bennett remains hot, Gallardo is up and Gimmeadrink (3) likes it wet.

$80 Weighted Exacta Box 2,3

$8 Saver Trifectas 2,3/1,5,7/2,3 ($48)

Saver DDs 3/4 (see Race 9) (FAST ONLY)

Race 9 – TURF ONLY

Ward is now 17-23 ITM with Plain Shortenups in L4T. Gallardo is aboard.

$7 Trifectas All/4/6 ($56)

$3.50 Trifectas All/4/9 ($28)

$1.50 Trifectas All/4/7,8 ($24)

Saver Win 4 (to cover the bet, if the DD in the 8th is a no go).

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 5 WT 1***, 5 WT 1, 3, 4, 7 WT 1, 9, 10 … ($.50) $24.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) ….1, 2, 3, 5, 6 WT 1, 7, 8 WT 3, 8 WT 4, 9 … ($.50) $30.00

*************************************

Wed., March 25th
Race 5

Ness has so many angles here they gotta be enumerated:

RB + UC + Shortenup – 19-19 ITM (first try with the angle at the meeting today)

Non-shipping L1-3 + UC + Shortenup – 58% Win, 85% ITM (in 38 tries L4T)

Rightbacks with Gallardo up at the current meeting – 5-8 Win, 6-8 ITM

Three-peats 50% Win in L4T.

Minnock has 42% W, 58% ITM angle here, is 2-2 ITM with the angle at the current meeting and his go to, Allen is up (22% W, 47% ITM in L3T).

If by chance we can get $14 for our weighted exacta, then it’s a $100 weighted exacta 1,10. If not, then…..

$12 Trifectas 10/1/2,3,7,8,9 ($60)
$1 Superfectas 10/1/4,5,6/2,3,7,8,9 ($15)
Saver Exacta 1/10 to cover the bet (about $20)

Pools are all wrong here…ABORT!

Followed by the SCRATCH…it all adds up!

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 5 WT 2, 4, 7 WT 1, 3, 9 WT 4, 7 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 5, 8 WT 5*** WT 4, 5 WT 2, 3, 8 … ($.50) $9.00
Best Bet ***

************************************

I’m gonna take another freshener. Luck to us this weekend. Be back Wednesday.

Sunday, March 22nd

A lousy card with very little to work with.

Race 3

Sienkiewicz is 6-8 ITM with S + 1PTB types and this one has been up for a piece at short odds. Today’s ML is very generous. Ferrer is up.

$16 ATB 1

Race 6

Huamantla (3) was par in both starts (by total energy), Ward is 50% ITM with Stretchouts in L4T and 33% ITM with FTT types. He’s also 22% W and 43% ITM in 1st 3 OC.

$33 ATB 3 (off solid action in all pools)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 4, 9 WT 1, 4, 6 WT 1, 8 WT 8 … ($.50) $ 9.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 5, 6 WT 2, 7, 9 WT 2*** WT 1, 4, 10 … ($.50) $13.50
Best Bet ***

*********************************

Sat., March 21st

Race 2

Patrick is 6-9 ITM with Plain FBK + RtS types (with three bombs) and Effortlessly (7) was close to par in first two starts. Patrick has bombed three times with Butler up at the meeting.

$15 ATB 7

Race 11

Manning is 15-15 ITM with (with 10 winners) with L4-8 + S + Dropdown + Shortenup types in L8T. We call this a class drop using our formula based class assessment. He tried it once at the meeting and was 2nd at $8.50-1. Looking closely at last start, we observe that in the race within a race (for the place), A Cure At Last (1) and six others were separated by < 3 lengths for 2nd honors. We also note that 6 of the 10 starters were restricted types. At least four from that race have won or been up close ITM since, two in N1X company.

Talk about a weak field. My other four top choices are 6-99 on the grass between them. Bombs away Dennis Manning!

$75 Win and Place 1
$0.50 Trifectas 2,3,6,9/1,2,3,6,9/2,3,6,9 ($24)

****************************

Friday, March 20th
Race 2

Monroe Court (3) was par in last on the grass, is better than 50% ITM lifetime on a FAST dirt surface, won twice here in 2013 at 8.5F with a 106 and a 104 (today’s par is 98) and Ward switches to Pablo Morales today. Ward is 0-4 at the meeting with Zapico up and 4-6 ITM with Morales up (at average odds of $7.50-1). Disregard the FAST GP start in the summer of 13. It rained all week as I recall. Ward’s 9-17 ITM with Plain Dropdown + Shortenup types and has two 20% win angles also going today.

Gatis claimed Ptolemaic (4) two back from Proctor. Horses claimed from Proctor have won 10 of 24 and are 12-24 ITM in L5T (after an average of 1.7 starts) with only two duds from 21 claims. Gatis is 10-13 ITM with TtoD types in L4T (and is 3-3 ITM with TtoD + RtS types at the current meeting). Ptolemaic was above par in previous two and tries the dirt for the first time, but works indicate an affinity for the surface.

Dale Bennett has been on fire since Feb. 4th. Bellachino (8) has won at the distance and is right there at related. Quirins in last were closest to par.

Citi Rush (5) was also close to par and comes out of a race with 4 rightback winners.

Conkey is 0-10 with Plain StRs.

McCarthy is 6-86 with all Layoffs.

Barbaran wins 3% with Shortenups.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 3/4,8
$18 Trifectas 4,8/4,8/3 ($36)
$2 Saver Trifectas 3,4,8/2,6,9/3,4,8 ($36)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 4 WT 4 WT 3, 5 WT 4, 9, 10*** … ($.50) $6.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 2, 5, 6 WT 4, 7 WT 1, 8 WT 2, 7, 10 … ($.50) $24.00

*********************

Wed. March 18th

Race 1 $2 P3 All/5/2 ($12)

Race 2 – Spec Play
The King of the Bomb Makers, Billy Joe Fuller Jr. has one by way of Galvan today, Fuller’s first starter in 2015. Fuller had 14 bombs in L3T with average ITM odds of 42-1 (including three at $70-1 or higher). Royal Seer (5) is a 6YO 2TS, a son of Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone (who, incidentally, broke his maiden at 6F by 12 lengths). Galvan is 2-4 W and 3-4 ITM with 2TSs in L2T (and put over such a bomb last month at 10-1). Sharp recent gate work at the Williston Mile also got my attention. Unfortunately, trainers often downplay their runners abilities (for one reason or another) and Mr. G says Royal Seer is not likely to be there. I really have serious doubts about the value of even asking, but his comments leave us no choice but to go in for only a few bucks (just in case).
Don’t get too excited about Motion’s piece. He’s 1-10 here with L9ups in L4T.

Conditional Plays if the 5 is 8-1 or >

$2 Trifectas 2,3,6/5/2,3,6 ($12)
$0.50 Trifectas All/2,3,6/5 ($9)

Race 5
Rhone is 25% W, 50% ITM with No Change types in L4T.
Ness is 41% W, 74% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L4T (and 3-6 ITM at the current meeting).

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 4,6
$5 Trifectas 4,6/1,3,8/4,6 ($30)

Race 8
$5 Pick 3  9,10/2,5/8 ($20)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 7, 8 WT 2, 5, 8 WT 5, 6 WT 1, 2, 6 … ($.50) $27.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 2, 8 WT 10*** WT 2, 4 WT 2, 7, 8, 11 … ($.50) $12.00

*****************************

Sunday, March 15th

Race 4

The Firestones are 34 (13-6-3) here at Tampa in L4T and Delacour wins 33% and is 50% ITM with Maiden Claimers and is 4-8 ITM with FTS + FTT types here in L3T. Certainly worth a play for the ML of 5-1 (even a click or two shorter).

Conditional $16 ATB #6 for 7-2 or >

Race 7

Countess Twice (10) was well above par in last over a FAST track when beaten by Rising Tigress, and that one finished up close in next two starts. She’s 5 of 6 ITM over a FAST track. Scace was 5-15 W last season with Plain Shortenup + No Class Change types.

Conditional $64 Win 10 for 2-1 or >

$0.50 Saver Trifectas All/10/All ($36)

if <2-1

$1.50 Trifectas All/10/All ($98)

Saver Exactas top 3 tote choices/10 (to cover the bet).

Mr. Pick Fours Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 6, 7 WT 2, 3, 10 WT 1*** WT 4, 6, 8 … ($.50) $ 13.50

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 9, 10 WT 1, 7, 9 WT 5 WT 4, 8 … ($.50) $9.00

******************************

Saturday, March 14th

Race 3

Mr. Bennett is 16-18 ITM with 1OC + FBKs in L4T (3-4 win at the current meeting). Antoine (2) was above par early in last and shortens up 990 feet today. RD Allen is back.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/1,4

Betting $8 to collect $18 is not my style….I’m off this play.

Race 8

Stewart is now 19-28 ITM with 3YOs in L4T (5-7 ITM at the current meeting) and Bandages’ (3) Quirins improved  in every start (disregard the Bris figure). Stewart has a 7-10 ITM angle here (L1-3 + Dropdown + RtS). RD Allen is up again here.

Fast Flying Rumor (4) was above par in last two and looks right on the Shortenup.

Hennessy is 3-3 ITM with S + PTB types at the meeting (7).

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/3,7 

This one is getting hammered at the windows too, so we’re off it. Tomorrow’s another day.

$1.50 Saver Trifectas 3,4,7/1,6/3,4,7 ($18)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 2, 4 WT 5, 8 WT 2, 6 WT 7, 8, 11 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (8-11) …. 3, 4, 6, 7 WT 1, 2, 5, 9, 10 WT 4, 6 WT 5*** … ($.50) $20.00
Best Bet ***

****************************

Friday, March 13th Race 6

RD Allen Jr. returns today with 5 mounts after a 31 day absence, and we don’t know what to expect from him, so we’re steering clear, but tomorrow’s plays may hinge on what he does today.

Ness is 17-20 ITM with today’s angle and tries it for the first time at the meeting. Nuestra Senor (7) improved sharply in 2nd start. Gallardo sticks. For all the buzz about Ness being off his game, he’s still 42% W and 63% ITM when the favorite this season (down only slightly from 46%W & 76% ITM in L3T). The good news is that his average ITM odds have crept up to $3-1 at the meeting.

Will Run For Beer (10) was a late bloomer, doing nothing until 2013 when he had a great meeting on both surfaces. What you can’t see in the PP is that he was 3-3 ITM over a fast track at that meeting (albeit all sprints). He was missing in action for 16 months (obviously due to some infirmity) but has the best numbers in the field going longer (in last two on the lawn). I’m giving him this one chance at rock bottom.

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 7,10

$8 Trifectas 7,10/1,6/7,10 ($32)

$5 Saver Trifectas 6/7,10/7,10 ($10)

$1 Saver Supers 7,10/2,3,4,5/7,10/1,6,7,10 ($16)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4***, 6 WT 4, 5, 8 WT 5, 6, 11 WT 2, 7 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 5, 7 WT 5, 9 WT 6, 11 WT 3, 6, 9 … ($.50) $18.00

Best Bet ***

***************************

Wed., March 11th

Handicapper’s Alert: Dale Bennett has gone to the NUCLEAR OPTION!
He’s 8-17 Win and 15-17 ITM with L or 2L types in the past month and has three of them today in races 2, 5 & 7.

Race 4 – FAST TRACK ONLY

Recently, Kevin and I were discussing the potential virtues of taking the multiple angle trainer profiles a step further than ever before, looking first at what the trainer’s angle was in his/her last start and then upgrading/downgrading that trainer’s angle in today’s start depending on what he/she did versus what he/she was supposed to do last time out (ergo AG was not expected to do anything in OWTs’ first start, and didn’t and almost always pops in 2nd start and is expected to today). Today, we have a perfect test for our advanced hypothesis.

Aldana Gonzalez has a 2TS today. She is 0-10 with FTSs, but, she is 7-8 ITM with 2TS + Stretchout types at good odds. A more irrational and profound dichotomy will not be easy to find elsewhere, so we are all in with One Way Talk (5), win or lose.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/1,7
$2 Saver Trifectas 1,7,12/1,7,12/5 ($12)
$1 Trifectas 1,7/All/5 ($18)

Race 8 – TURF ONLY – Spec Play
$20 Weighted Exacta Box 3,5
$2 Trifectas 3,5/9,10/3,5 ($8)
$0.50 Trifectas 3,5/1,2,4/3,5,9,10 ($9)

Total Wager ($117)

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 6, 7, 8 WT 1, 5, 7 WT 3, 4 WT 3*** … ($.50) $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 2, 5 WT 1, 3, 9 WT 6, 11 WT 3 … ($.50) $12.00

***************************

Sunday, March 8th – Race 9

A very competitive field so we look to cash a trifecta here.

Travel Required (7) is a gamer, with winning margins averaging 5 lengths, three 2nds by a nod and a couple more up close finishes (and on all surfaces.) He shortens up today and likes the 8.18F distance. Seven pound allowance adds value with the talented leading apprentice rider up.

Nothing out of Handsome Dennis’ (1) last has done anything to talk about.

Dini’s piece could be the real deal. Wedding  Savior (2) was well above par in last. Mike does well with RBs and Shortenups.

$5 Trifectas 1,2,5,8/7/All (with the scratch of the 3) ($120)

Saver Win 7 (to cover the bet)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3 WT 2, 6 WT 2, 4, 7, 9 WT 4, 9 … ($.50) $8.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3***, 6, 8 WT 1, 2, 6, 8 WT 1, 2, 7 WT 8 … ($.50) $18.00
Best Bet ***

************************************

Saturday, March 7th – Race 7

Songsational (11) had terrific debut, going three clicks off the Track Record set by Good Lord in 2013 (Good Lord goes in the Challenger today).  The 4 yo colt went 108 in that one (today’s par is 101), and he was the only gate to wire winner that day (we also note that the IV for front runners at the current meeting is only 0.43). Four sharp works indicate readiness. Last year Belmont Stakes winning rider Joel Rosario is up.

Woodard is 3-7 W, 6-7 ITM in first OC (with runners with at least one Tampa start at the meeting) and Score One (2) is 7-9 ITM at the distance.

Houston Bull (5) was well above par in last. Has the class and likes the distance.

Kaelin is 0-14 with Plain RtSs in L3T.

Padilla is 1-35 with Plain RtSs.

Ness is off his game, 3-26 with Stretchouts at the current meeting.

Harvatt is 1-45 with Plain RtSs.

$125 Weighted Exacta Key Box 11/2,5

$4 SaverTrifectas  11/4,7,8,9,12/2,5 ($40)

Total Wager $165

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (1-4) …. 1, 4, 6 WT 5, 6 WT 1, 12 WT 2, 7 … ($.50) $12.00

Middle Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1, 8, 9 WT 3, 8, 10 WT 11 WT 4, 6 … ($.50) $9.00

Late Pic 4 (9-12) …. 3, 4, 6, 7 WT 1, 2, 9 WT 2***, 3 WT 4, 6 …($.50) $24.00

Best Bet ***

**********************************

Friday, March 6th

Race 5
This is Divito’s best angle, the Layoff + Shipper + Class Change. He is 8-15 Win and 11-15 ITM. Enough said about Stand Up Guy (4).

Delacour’s Artie Schiller firster Aquies (1) looks right. She’s now 5-9 ITM with FTTs in L4T.

Vincent Chase (2) made big Quirins in Tampa debut, above par early and par late. KOCs piece hasn’t gotten a firm course in next to tries. Another chance.

Bradley is always a threat with Shortenups and lightly raced types on the grass, but the numbers say no.

$75 Win 4
$25 Weighted Saver Exactas 1,2/4
$2 Saver Tri 7,14/4/1,2 ($8)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3*** WT 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 WT 2, 4, 6 WT 2, 5, 10 … ($.50) $27.50

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 6 WT 3, 9 WT 7, 10 WT 6, 7, 8 … ($.50) $12.00

Best Bet ***

***********************************

Wed., March 4th

Race 1

Max Ubide has been off the board in six tries but has a ton of solid angles here and a back story to go with it.  2L4-8  55% ITM (11-20), 2S 42% ITM, Drop In Class 59% ITM (20-34), Turf to Dirt 52% ITM (13-25), Shortenup 40% ITM.

This gently used 7yo has only 38 starts and showed speed for 6 furlongs in first of the short layoff, fading late with an 88 in a par 95 on the grass, but shortens up more than a 1/2 furlong today (as the portable rail was at 12 feet in last).

She was 2nd here in Dec. 2012 at today’s distance (as a maiden), won in 2013 (going longer) and was 2nd in last try of the meeting at 6-1 in 2014 (also at today’s distance).

Tinasutopianvision (3) has a clean record, more back class than the rest of these, was above par in last and drops in class today.

Three of the other contenders all come out of the same race and all three are only recent N3L winners, but Samsonian (5) comes from the power owner Julian DeMora (19-33 W & P in L2T).

The other piece that could surprise is a PTB from Wirth, who left town after a sexual harassment scandal broke recently. I assume that no one would pick up the mount, so an out of town boy has inherited the ride. But Wirth has a solid record with this type and while sub-par, this one would be a serious threat under normal conditions.

$33 ATB 4

$25 Exactas 3,5/4

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 5 WT 5, 10 WT 3, 5, 7 WT 2, 3, 4, 5, 9 … ($.50) $30.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) ….3, 8, 9 WT 1, 2, 4 WT 4*** WT 3, 5 … ($.50) $9.00
Best Bet ***

Race 6

Little Miss Perfect (8) goes for Woodard 45% Win with L1-3 + Dropdown types and 10-12 ITM with TtoD types here at the Downs and last season at Mountaineer.  All but the 9 are sub-par and the 9 moves up in class today.

$33 ATB 8

*************************

Sunday, March 1st

Race 4

Haruma (6) was above par in debut for super-trainer Efren Loza Jr. (39% W, 87% ITM in Dirt Sprints here in Oldsmar) and must be on top with Gallardo up.

R.D. Special (8) was also above par in dirt debut. In her next start she was in striking distance mid-stretch when she checked sharply, losing about 5 lengths, after which she was saved for another day. Switches to Lebron.

Inside Bias on the drying track and 1-5 odds have us off this play.

$50 Exacta 6/8

Race 10 – MAIN TRACK ONLY

Stewart’s piece, Double Check (8) made a %E in debut that was outside the upper range for 8F on the lawn, but was right in the middle of the range for 8.18F on the main track. Chad has all Win and ITM angles of at least 20% and 50% respectively here and is 5-15 W, 11-15 ITM with Centeno up (having only one winner with Santos in the irons).  Stewart has three bomb angles in play also: 3TS, Class Change & Distance Change.

$25 ATB 8

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. All (6) WT 6*** WT 1, 2, 3 WT 6, 8 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4, 8, 9 WT 5 WT 7, 9, 10 WT 2, 6, 8 … ($.50) $13.50

*****************************************

Saturday, Feb. 28th

Race 11 – TURF ONLY

Today’s nitecap appears to be wide open with 4 FTS + FTT types from barns that get it done with same, and a couple more in their 2nd or 3rd try on the grass, so we keep an open mind and a cast a wide net in this one.

Fuhrious Warrior (3) goes for Jordan Blair who is 8-14 ITM with all starters on the turf here in Oldsmar. The gelding, a son of Langfuhr (#5 active sire by earnings and #11 sire of turf winners), who is right up there with all but the elite of the elite. My informants tell me that Warrior’s owner, John P. Hicks, was on a plane headed to TPA last night, so he could be in the winner’s circle after today’s nitecap. Fuhrious Warrior was above par in both Tampa starts with par final fractions and is a solid contender even without the provenance.

Stewart and Harty are outstanding with babies and 3YOs. Stewart has a soft angle here, 4-8 win with Plain DtoT + Stretchout. Gallardo sticks for Harty (20% win on the turf at Tampa). His piece was par early in sprint on the dirt in debut, with little support at the windows.

Manning is 4-7 ITM with FTS + FTT in L3T. Delacour was 4-8 ITM with the same angle.

The Proctor AEs both have 45% W, 90% ITM angles going here.

The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, Mr. Hicks.

$150 Weighted Exactas All/3

Save with a win 3 if the cost is not prohibitive, otherwise take your chances.

Fuck me with all this wasted energy (centered on a scratch):

$1 Tri All/2/All $72

$0.50 Tri All/All/2 ($36)

If off the turf, Bella Bamba #1 in the 5th gets $33 ATB, but only over a drying surface.

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 4, 8 WT 4, 5 WT 1, 7 WT 1, 2, 5 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (8-11) …. 2, 6, 8 WT 6, 10 WT 9*** WT 3, 6, 10 … ($.50) $9.00

Best Bet ***

*******************************************

I’LL BE AT THE TRACK ON THURS AND FRIDAY.  COME BY AND SAY HELLO!  (2nd box closest to the paddock, first row).

Friday – Feb. 27th

Race 2

$50 Weighed Exacta Box 1,3

$5 Pick 3 – 1,3 WT 2,5,8 WT 6 ($30)

Woodard has not missed the board (5-5 ITM with two winners) in 1st OC with runners with at least one Tampa start at the meeting.

McBride is 6-8 ITM with UC + FBK types.

Race 4

Wasiluk is 50% ITM with Plain FBK + Stretchout types at average odds of 8-1 and has not missed the board with FBKs at the current meeting

Tasso runner Goldsome (6) has the best Quirins in the field, has had good success at the track and at the distance. Time for Tasso to break the ice with his first winner of 2015.

$50 Win 6

$1 Saver Trifectas 2,4,7,8/6/2,4,7,8 (12)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 7 WT 2, 4, 6, 7 WT 3, 5 WT 5 … ($.50) $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 6, 7 WT 9, 10 WT 3*** WT 1, 4, 6 … ($.50) $9.00
Best Bet ***

******************************************

Thursday – Feb. 26th

Race 2

Awe Zoom (5) improves in every start, was well above par in last and drops in class today.

FDLC capitalized with 3 wins and a 2nd for the absent Centeno yesterday and has been hot recently. Hernandez can’t be left off the ticket.

Last time Navarro was based here he won 19 of 44 in first three OC (with 32 ITM).

$70 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/2,7

$0.50 Superfecta 5/1,3,4,5,6,8/2,7/all ($30)

Race 10

Conditional $100 Win Lady Fog Horn (4) for 5-2 or >

Granitz’s filly made +5 Final Fraction in Turf debut, then was par in last after troubled trip, checking sharply mid-stretch and then going well again once clear. Gallardo reunites.

Saver Exacta 9/4 (as necessary).

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 7, 8 WT 1, 7 WT 6*** WT 1, 5, 10 … ($.50) $9.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) … 1, 3, 7 WT 3, 6 WT 3, 6, 10 WT 4, 5, 9, 10 … ($.50) $ 36.00
Best Bet ***

*********************************************

Wed. Feb. 25th

It’s anybody’s guess if the track will be off today as rain threatens, but the IV for speed remains at 0.4 for the last ten race days. We note that Gerald Bennett is 0-10 recently with favorites, while Dale Bennett remains on fire with 8 winners in the last two weeks with 13 of 16 ITM.

Race 2 Conditional $50 Win Parlay #4 for even money with Race 5 #4

Race 7 Charles Russell (7) looks wrong on the dropdown after visually impressive but close to par effort in last. Woodard is 75% ITM (10-15) with the angle too. Flip a coin.

Race 8 Patrick is 6-9 ITM with Plain FBK + StR types (including three bombs) in L3T. This play we make on faith. Ness is 88% ITM with the same angle in L3T and is 4-5 ITM at the current meeting with same.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5,6

$8 Saver Trifectas 6/8,9,10/5 ($24)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 4, 5, 7*** WT 2, 3, 4, 7 WT 6, 10 WT 7 … ($.50) $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 2, 5, 8 WT 2, 3, 10 WT 2, 7, 9 WT 4, 9 … ($.50) $36.00

Best Bet ***

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Sunday, Feb. 22nd – Race 8

Dramedy (4) has had two troubled trips and was still above par in both tries with above par final fractions. Switches to RoHo and gets another chance.

Boulanger has return mount today (and his only on the card) aboard Examen (1). Proctor wins 30% and is 62% ITM with Plain Shortenups and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today.

Bennett has been on fire. Dale has not missed the board with 12-15 ITM in the last two weeks with 7 winners and switches to Gallardo. He is 65% ITM with Plain Shortenup + No Class Change types in L3T.

$125 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/1,10

$7 Saver Trifectas 4/3,8,9/1,10 ($42)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5, 6, 8 WT 3*** WT 1, 6, 7 WT 3, 6 … ($.50) $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 6 WT 3, 6, 9, 10 WT 8 WT 3, 6, 10 … ($.50) $12.00
Best Bet ***

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Sat. Feb. 21st – Day 49

Rising Tigress’ (6) Quirins matched the boys in open $6250 (see race 10 on 2/7), so that last effort was impressive indeed. The boys were, arguably 4 or 5 classes higher than the Tigress, and she went 96-96 that day and today’s par (including the up in class move, is 90-90).

Scarlett Dell (11) made above par numbers twice at the meeting (including last), but also was sub-par twice and Ward is 0-5 with Plain RBs at the meeting.

$20 DD 1,2,3,7/6

$5 Saver DD 5,6/6

$75 Weighted Exactas 6/3,5

$12 Trifectas 6/11/3,5 ($24)

$5.00 Saver Trifectas 3,5,11/6/3,5,11 ($30)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. All (7) WT 3*** WT 3, 6 WT 10 … ($.50) $7.00

Late Pic 4 (8-11) …. 2, 4 WT 3, 6, 10 WT 5 WT 4, 6 … ($.50) $6.00
Best Bet ***

*************************************

Friday, Feb. 20th
Race 3

Granitz is 5-15 W and 9-15 ITM with today’s angle and he’s rarely trying in first off the layoff, so Lord of Love (3) looks right for a wakeup.

Edited after I took a deeper look and see that Granitz was also 9-11 ITM  with 2PTBs, with 4 winners in L3T. This changes the picture favorably.

$50 ATB 3

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 4, 7 WT 4, 7, 10 WT 1, 5 WT 1, 4, 8 … ($.50) $27.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 6, 8 WT 3, 6, 7, 8 WT 6 *** WT 7, 9 … ($.50) $ 9.00

Thursday, Feb. 19th – Race 8
Dacosta has a powerhouse of angles to go along with the narrative and that makes for our favorite kind of play. Dacosta is 63% W, 81% ITM with RtS types (13-16) in L4T and has twice his normal strike rate with Layoffs, Shippers and Dropdowns and he is 16-23 ITM with Shipper + FDLC up in L2T. Artie Ocean (1) has a habit of improving sharply off the layoff and on the RtS move. He did it at least three times: beaten by 10 then winning, beaten by 14 then winning, beaten by 25 then finishing 2nd. On top of that he’s 6-6 ITM at the Downs.
Saratoga Boot (6) comes out of a key race that saw all but one come back strong. There were two winners, a 2nd and a 3rd from the five that went in their next start and DB rarely misses the board in first three OC. Bennett has not missed the board with 10-12 ITM in the last 13 days with 5 winners.  Switches to Gallardo.
We can’t leave Padilla runner Bizet (8) off the ticket. Tim is 33% W and 72% ITM in 18 tries on the dirt here in L5T.
Ness is 17-21 ITM with 2L + FBK types in L3T, so the AE Costa De Oro is clearly a threat for a piece if the old gelding draws in. Action, action…the damn thing is dependent on action.
Like the Ness piece CNO last week, we demand a fair amount of interest in our longshot before we get too excited. If the 1 is < 10-1, we’ll assume it’s live on the board and make this play:
$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/1,8
Otherwise the play is as follows: $125 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/8,13
$4 Saver Trifecta 6,8,13/1/6,8,13 ($24)
$2.00 Saver DD 1/All ($20)
Otherwise Conditional $132 Win 6 for 8-5 or > (if the AE is out)
Saver Exacta 8/6 (as needed)
$5 Trifectas 8/1,6/1,6 ($10)
$0.50 Supers 2,4,5,7,10,11/6/1,8/1,8 ($6)
$1 DD 1/All ($10)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

OFF TURF

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 4***, 5 WT ALL (9) WT 5, 6 WT 8 … ($.50) $18.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 4, 5, 8 WT 1, 2, 7 WT 6, 8 WT 4 … ($.50) $9.00
Best Bet ***
**********************************
Wed., Feb. 18th
Race 1 Mr. Bennett is now 12-22 Win with Plain FBK + Favorite types and 2-2 Win, 4-5 ITM at the current meeting.  Zephyr Bay (7) was above par in last two over a FAST track and was only 1 click off a par final fraction in last.
$15 DD – 7/1,5 ($30)
$10 Pick 3  – 7 WT 1,5 WT 6 ($20)
Race 2 Sandro (1) came out of race (two back) that saw Mr. Thunder Boy come back to win (the 3 also came out of that race), but Sandro was above par in next outing and drops in class today. May get a fair price with overrated stakes failures from Wilkes and Bennett.
However, Wilkes is 24% W and 56% ITM with 2L1-3s, 9-12 ITM with TtoD + RtS types and 35% Win with Dropdowns in L3T. $50 Weighted Exacta Box 1,5
$15 DD 1,5/6 ($30)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 5, 7 WT 2, 5 WT 1, 5*** WT 3, 5, 9, 10 … ($.50) $24.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 WT 1, 10 WT 2, 3 WT 8 … ($.50) $10.00

*********************************

Sunday, Feb. 15th

Nothing exciting today, so we’ll go short and hopefully long.

Race 1 $3.00 Pick 3 –  5 WT All WT 4 ($21)

Race 1 $2.00 Pick 3 –  5 WT All WT 8 ($14)

Race 3  $0.50Pick 4 – 4,8 WT 3,7 WT 1 WT All ($20)

Race 3 $3.00 Pick 3 – 4 WT All WT 1 ($30)

Race 3 $2.00 Pick 3 – 8 WT All WT 1 ($20)

Total Wager $105

Dale Bennett has finally got his train rolling. He has not missed the board with 9-10 in the last 11 days with 4 winners. The one that was OOM was 4th by a neck.

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 7, 8 WT 6, 9 WT 1, 10 WT 6, 7, 8 … ($.50) $24.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 7*** WT 3, 5, 7, 10 WT 5, 7, 10 WT 1, 9 … ($.50) $12.00

Best Bet ***

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Whether you’re on a winning streak or can’t pick your nose, love your life and cherish the ones nearest and dearest to you.

Happy Valentine’s Day

Saturday, Feb. 14th – Race 1

Stewart’s piece, Silver Crusader (2) was above par in maiden win, then was above par in 2nd try on the turf. Stewart has solid ITM angles here but none for win. On the other hand, nobody but Queen Joan has any win angles to speak of.

Scott can say the same about Bobblehead (7) but that was on the AW. Today she adds the hood, but has had only limited success in first try (only 3-28). She claimed this one for $40K just a few months ago and he’s already in the bargain basement? I don’t like it one bit but, damn, she’s 50% Win with today’s angle (10-20) and tries it for the first time at the meeting.

Freshman trainer Antonio Machado looks OK but a quick review of all recent Der works indicates that Ethan’s Tune (6) has not shown much in the morning.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/4,5

$12 Saver Trifectas 2,7/2,7/4,5 ($48)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 6*** WT 1, 8 WT 3, 6, 8 WT 5, 8, 12 … ($.50) $27.00

 Late Pic 4 (8-11) …. 5, 6 WT 4, 6, 7, 12 WT 5, 6, 8 WT 3, 4, 11 … ($.50) $36.00
************

Friday, Feb. 13th

Race 2
Substraight (4) improved Quirins in every start and was closest to par in the field in last. Mr. B is 11-15 ITM with Plain Shortenups at the meeting.

Dini is better than 60% ITM with Shortenups in L3T and is 3-6 ITM with them at the current meeting. He’s better than 1-28, for sure.
Gerry With a G (3) was par two back.

Doubly Distinct (6) makes above par EPs, shortenup should help. Trisler is 80% ITM with BFs.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/3,6 for a 5-2 or > return
$5 Saver Trifectas 3,4,6/5/3,4,6 ($30)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 5 WT 4, 9 WT 3, 4, 7, 9 WT 1, 3, 6, 8 … ($.50) $32.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 6, 7, 8, 9 WT 2, 3, 7 WT 2, 7*** WT 6, 8 … ($.50) $30.00

Best Bet ***

************************************

Thursday, Feb 12th – Race 8
I was not surprised when Ness entered Cee ‘n O (1) in the Turf Dash after going two clicks above Stakes par in smashing N1X win in first try, but could not have anticipated a new course record (over a -3 track variant) on January 10th. We note that there was only 4 lengths separating the last eight finishers in that one.
So now the Ness runner has gone 108 and 109 in last two, today’s par is 102.

Ness won 58% (in 38 tries) with Non-shipping L1-3 + Class Change types, and won 45% with TtoD types in L3T. Last place finish in last and jumping off of Gallardo helps price today.

Shore Runner (2) zipped with pronounced rail bias on 12/31, but two up close finishes in N1X company for $77K (in as many tries) impresses.
NESS IS ICE COLD ON THE BOARD ABORT!!!
Conditional $120 Exacta 1/2 for $12 or > otherwise $220 Win 1 for 2-1 or >
$16 Trifectas 1/4,5,7/2 ($48)
$1.00 Saver Supers 1,2/All/1,2/4,5,7 ($42)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
ALL RACES OFF TURFEarly Pic 4 (2-5) …. All WT 8*** WT 2, 11 WT 2, 3, 7 … ($.50) $18.00Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 7, 9 WT 5, 6, 10 WT 2, 5 WT 5, 8 … ($.50) $ 12.00Best Bet ***

**************************************

Wed., Feb. 11th
Nothing exciting today, so a little speculation is in order.
1st Tape Deck (4) bombed in 3rd off layoff at $50-1 last season. Ya never know with Kielty.
$5 Trifectas 8,9/8,9/4 ($10)
$0.50 Superfectas  8,9/2,3,4/8,9/2,3,4   ($6)
Race 2 $2 Pick 4 – 7 WT 2,4,5 WT 7,9,10 WT 6,7 ($36)
$0.50 Pick 4 – 6 WT 2,4,5 WT 7,8,9,10 WT 6,7 ($12)
Race 3 Prince Pomeroy (5) was far back in debut, then got going to finish well with a sub-18 final fraction. Gallardo and Mr. Bennett are 9-11 ITM when the favorite and 15-27 ITM overall.
Race 5 $10 DDs 6,7/9 ($20)
Race 6 Minnock is 33% W & 50% ITM with Plain Stretchouts. Allen sticks. 1st lasix today.
25% of DD value Saver Trifecta All/9/3,6 ($18 for each $1)
Race 8 $20 DD 8/4
Total Wager $104 (+ saver)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
ALL RACES OFF TURF
 
Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 4, 6 WT 2, 3, 4 WT 6*** WT 2, 7 … ($.50) $9.00
 
Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 5, 6 WT 2, 4, 8, 9, 10 WT 3, 8 WT 10 … ($.50) $15.00
 
Best Bet ***
*********************************************
Sunday, Feb. 8th
Race 3
Chilly Start (3) – Cataldi has most of her very best angles going today, so many we’ll have to enumerate:
L1-3 + 2S + Dropdown 60% Win (3-5)
2S + 2PTB 66% ITM (6-9)
2S + Dropdown 50% ITM (4-8)
On the cusp of a 2L + 2S + Dropdown 88% ITM (7-8)
Bomb angles – 17 of 25 1st 3 after Shipping,
17 of 25 Shortenup or Stretchout
This one is an automatic play, without consideration to merits, but dueling front runners won’t hurt chances.
Cheers For Sidney (5) – Mr. Bennett historically wins 37% with Plain Stretchouts, but he is on fire with the angle at the meeting 3-3 Win (when the favorite) and 5-6 ITM.
Conditional $50 Win 3 at 5-1 or >
$50 Exacta 5/3
$7 Saver Trifectas 4,6/3,5/3,5 ($28)
Race 7
Thomas is a 10% Trainer who is 25% win with RB’s. I know he was surprised by Harry Hee’s (7) maiden win because last season he was 2-33 with any jock that wasn’t a leader. Harry was above par in last. UC moves adds up. Let’s hope the Madrilena gets it done again.
The trainers of the 3 and 5 have high ITM numbers for the RtS move, 75 and 81% respectively.
Bradley is only 1-11 with Rightbacks.
$10 Trifectas 6,7/3,5,6,7/3,5,6,7 ($120)
$1.00 Saver Superfectas 6,7/3,5,6,7/4/3,5,6,7 ($12)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5 WT 2, 4, 7 WT 5, 6, 11 WT 4, 7 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4, 6 WT 8*** WT 7, 9, 11 WT 3, 5, 7 … ($.50) $9.00

****************************************

Saturday, Feb. 7th  – Race 11

The AEs and weak angles complicate matters here, but we are not slaves to our own profiles and our wager today attempts to reflect the complexities and uncertainties of the nitecap.

AE #11 Red Rocket Express went 106 in last turf dash (a par 100) and he topped Houston Bull in last (along with the 5 and the 10) and Houston Bull won an N1X on the Stretchout in next start. Stewart won 50% (4-8) with Plain DtoT + Shortenup types in L3T and tried the angle once at the current meeting, getting up for 3rd at $8-1. Chad has made a habit of bombing with distance change types. Stewart also has the right profile for an N1X win, at least 3 career wins and multiple up close finishes in that company.

AE #12 Joni’s Wildcat already won an N1X turf dash (albeit at Suffolk) but also fits the profile and finished up close to our top choice in last.

Santo Divino (7) has my attention. The lightly raced 5YO made par ES after 6F in 9F turf debut as a 3YO, broke maiden at Tampa last spring  going wire to wire, got knocked around pretty bad at the break and soon after in Turf dash two back, then flashed speed  on off track on 12/31 against pronounced inside bias. RoHo’s been burning me all season. Maybe it’s our turn to cash.

Eclipticals Wildcat (4) had troubled trip in 2TT start, then stumbled at the break on the dirt next time out, but Jeffries profile says no and Gallardo jumps.

$70 Weighted Exacta Key Box 11/7,12

$3 Saver Trifectas 11/1,4,5,9,10/7,12 ($30)

or

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 7,12

$4 Saver Trifectas 7,12/1,4,5,9,10/7,12 ($40)

or

$50 Win 7

$2.50 Saver Trifectas 1,4,5,9,10/7/1,4,5,9,10 ($50)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. All(6) WT 2, 3, 6 WT 6*** WT 4, 8 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (8-11) …. 1, 8 WT 2, 4, 5, 7, 10 WT 3, 10 WT 1, 9 … ($.50) $ 20.00
Best Bet ***

**********************************

Friday, Feb. 6th

Race 3

This race has me filled with anticipation and excitement.

The 3 and 5 (Scace and O’Connell) both are 0-33 with their angles effectively eliminating them from consideration for win.

KOC’s other piece, I’m Crazy for You (1) takes a significant class drop today and was above par in first try and Moonshine Promise, the winner of that one, came right back to win by 5 in OC $12,500 recently.  A Golden Rail day may exist today as the inside still dries out while the outside resumes its deep and heavy characteristics.

In The Wild Clover (7) was above par in last and Wilkes is 33% W and 58% ITM with Rightbacks. Can’t find a weakness here.

Block has Owner (and veteran Tampa trainer) Jim Gulick’s Tipsy Toes (4).  A search of Block with Layoffs on the Dirt at Tampa yields nothing, but the same search for Gulick and kaboom, 56% W and 78% ITM with an ROI of 252%. A further search tells us that Gulick was 3-10 W and 6-10 ITM with Long Layoffs whence last we made a profile for him (12-13). However, this runner belonged to trainer Tom Hoop in last and the stretchout is consequential.

Great Red Beauty (2) had better Quirins than the 1 last spring here at the Downs and Granitz’s angles are all satisfactory, but he’s gone to leaders throughout the meeting with his live ones and this is the first race all season for this T/J combo. This makes me uneasy.

$125 Weighted Exacta Box 1,7

$90 in Weighted Trifectas 1,7/2,4,6/1,7

$1.00 Saver Supers 1,7/3,5/1,7/All ($32)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 4, 6 WT 1, 4, 7 WT 1, 2 WT 2, 4, 8 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 3, 9 WT 2, 4, 9, 10 WT 6*** WT 1, 5, 7 … ($.50) $18.00
Best Bet ***

************************************************

Thursday, Feb. 5th – Race 2

Assumes an off track….1/10th inch of rain expected Thursday.

Gallardo won 28 on an off track in 13-14 (twice what Allen won, and more than all the rest combined). At the current meeting on the three occasions when the track was off, he has won 10. So we must go with Inaswagger (6) here.

Dale Bennett (1) has a strong angle here 41% W and 66% ITM (in 44 tries) with the L1-3 + 2S + Dropdown +Shortenup.

Hinsley’s piece, Mr. Double Standard (5) improved in all three starts and overcame the inside bias on 12/31. Several others that did the same have come rightback for checks.

Ward is 1-18 with long layoffs.

Cancel this play for a $6 exacta!!!

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 1,6

$12 Trifectas 1,6/5/1,6 ($24)

$3 Saver Superfectas 1,6/2,4,7/1,6/5 ($18)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 5, 6 WT 3, 4 WT 7, 9 WT 4 … ($.50) $6.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) ….3, 8 WT 3*** WT 6, 7, 8 WT 5, 9, 12 … ($.50) $9.00

Best Bet ***

*******************************

Wed., Feb. 4th

Race 2

Harvatt has not had the breaks recently but he wins 15% with No Change types and Callmewhachuwant (1) has been reliable as a clock while not getting to the circle.

McBride is better than 50% ITM with FBKs and Stretchouts in L4T (see Tax Breaker #3)

$25 Exacta 1/3

$5 Saver Trifectas 1/2,6,7,8/3 ($20)

Race 4

Weak profile stats for this field leave us with Leonard runner Give Me Thy Heart (3), however, as unlikely as it may appear, Ward piece, Nice To Regal (8) should be ITM. Dennis is now 18-26 ITM with Dropdown + StR types in L4T.

Massaged a bit for overly generous exacta price.

$16 Exacta 3/8

$7 Trifectas 3,5,7/3,5,7/8 ($42)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. all (8) WT 9*** WT 1, 2, 5 WT 9 … ($.50) $12.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 3, 4, 6 WT 5, 7 WT 5 WT 2, 7, 8, 9 … ($.50) $ 16.00

************************

Sunday, Feb. 1st

$2 Race 1  Pick 3    5,9 WT 5,6,7,8 WT 2,4 ($32)

Anytime you can eliminate Ness you have a fighting chance of getting some decent value (See race 2 #3). Ness is 1-8 with this angle in L4T, and it’s not just the 88% lose rate that’s significant but even more telling is the infrequency of the angle appearing (only 8 times in four seasons). This angle is clearly reserved for his problem children.

Race 3

Georgetownstyle  (2) has huge ITM single stats for Dominguez (75%, 55%, 86%  & 75%) and gets Gallardo in the irons.

Vinson is 15-22 ITM in L2T and Pick the Double (4) was ready in last (and we had her on top). Why not?

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,4

Race 5

East Bay Lodge (2) woke up with +10 final fraction after horrible trip in last. Gets another chance.

Manning is always trying with these (he’s 11-18 ITM at good odds with 2TTs and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today).

Wilkes is 68% ITM with Plain Shortenups in L3T (73 tries) and Bonesprings (6) was par in both tries.

$68 Weighted Exacta Box 2,4,6

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 6, 7, 9 WT 1, 6 WT 5, 6, 12 WT 4, 6, 7 … ($.50) $27.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 5, 7 WT 2, 3, 8 WT 1, 6 WT 7*** … ($.50) $9.00

 Best Bet ***

 

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Saturday, Jan. 31st
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Race 7

Races with three different conditions, make it a lot easier to identify contenders.

Lake Drive South (4) was above par in last and put away an honest field of $25K claimers including Ness’ 5YO Grey By You (claimed in its previous three starts for $25K or >) and Dale Bennett’s Sancerre, a 7YO with multiple recent wins at the $25K level. KOC’s colt looks very tough Rightback on the Dropdown here.

Rodriguez is now 15-18 ITM in 1st 3 OC and >50% ITM with UC types and Gallardo takes the mount aboard Sonofachub (9), winner of last on the weeds with a 112-98 (today’s par is 102-102). Chubby’s got a lot going for him.

$70 Weighted Exacta Box 4,9

$10 Saver Trifectas 4/5,8/9 ($20)
$7 Saver Trifectas 9/5,8/4 ($14)
$0.50 Saver Super 4,9/4,5,8,9/1,2/4,5,8,9 ($12)

 

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (1-4) …. 2, 3 WT 1, 2, 3, 4 WT 3, 6 WT 5, 8, 9 …$24.00

Mid Pic 4 (5-8) …. 4, 6, 11 WT 8 WT 2, 4, 5, 7 WT 5, 10, 12 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (9-12) …. 1, 2, 5, 10 WT 1***, 6, 11 WT 1 WT 2, 3, 5 … $18.00

Best Bet *** 

*******************************
PLEASE EMAIL ME AT tamselections@gmail.com TO PARTICIPATE IN OUR BRIEF CUSTOMER SURVEY!
THANK YOU!
Friday, Jan. 30th Race 3
Starlighter (1) presents an interesting handicapping dilemma today.The 8YO was Larsen’s ATM when he had him and regularly won at will (and at long odds) at this level in 13 & 14.So Woodard claims him for $12,500 and Starlighter has been competitive versus better, but now drops after one try to his lowest level in over a year.Now Woodard likes to claim and had two dropping off the claim at the current meeting a $10K claimer down to $6250 (double drop) and a Starter $5K down to N1Y (arguably a double drop). But today he takes a quadruple drop today from $12.5K to the nickel. Clearly Starlighter may have been claimed for $10K or $8K or $6250 if he wanted to dump him. Today’s move is beyond provocative, instead every neuron in my body says it looks wrong. Too wrong to be wrong.It gets better. Only 18% of claims from Gerald Bennett win in first 3 tries off the claim and 16% break down in 1st 3OC or never run again (ever). But Mr. B. wasn’t looking for a savior, Starlighter was claimed while moving up in class.Woodard likes to race in SALWs. Is this a bold move to get eligible quick, off a poor race? Is he risking $12,500 for the winner’s share of a $10K check? Has the horse gone wrong after a par effort off the long layoff and then a so-so effort on an UIC move?The clincher is that leading owners Billy and Justin Hays have a $153K in purse money already at the meeting and I think they are willing to take the risky drop in class, hoping Woodard’s ballsy move will bring future checks (for the next year in SALW5 company), but Starlighter gets claimed today and my ML for that is 2-5.The IV for PPs 1 & 2 was .18 for the last 45 races over a fast dirt surface but there was a big wakeup from the post positions on Wed.If it weren’t such a lousy field, I’d be eager to look for something else to beat him today, but I can’t find one that leaves any impression.This analysis may all be for nothing because we have to get 8-5 before we make this wager, but I’m all in for that price. $100 Win 1 for 8/5 or >
If shorter than 8/5 then……
Upon further reflection, sometimes being right is not enough of a reason to make a wager. Instead, lets try to find some value today! Race 7 is wide open and creates an opportunity to catch a nice vertical today.
 $1.50 Race 5 Pick 3 – 4,6,9 WT 6,7 WT All (54 bets) $81
$1.50 Race 6 Pick 3 – 6,7 WT All WT 7,8,9 (54 bets) $81
$1.50 Race 7 – Pick 3 – All WT 7,8,9 WT 4,6 (54 bets) $81

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 8 WT 1, 5, 7, 9 WT 1, 2, 8 WT 4, 6 … ($.50) $24.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 6 WT 1, 2, 6, 8 WT 7*** WT 6, 8, 10 … ($.50) $12.00

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Wed., Jan. 28th 8TH
$144 Conditional Weighted Exacta Box 5,6 for $10 or >
Flirting Clara (5) was par while beaten by 5 ½ and Stewart is 27% Win in 22 tries with today’s angle (2L4-8 + 2S + Stretchout). Switches to Centeno (and off struggling Santos (1-28), his regular boy).
Dacosta piece (6) was solidly above par in first try and Jason nearly doubles his ordinary strike rate with Stretchouts. He’s also 7-9 ITM with Non-shipping 2PTBs and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today.
$10 Saver Trifectas 5,6/8,10/5,6 ($40)
$1 Saver Superfectas 5,6/2,11/5,6,8,10/5,6,8,10 ($16)  
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 5, 6, 7 WT 1, 10, 12 WT 7, 8 WT 2, 5 … ($.50) $18.00

 
Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4, 5 WT 5, 8 WT 3, 4 WT 2*** … ($.50) $4.00
 
Best Bet ***
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Sunday, Jan. 25th Race 4
Any time a Cataldi runner shows something in its last race, you better be prepared for a surprise going forward. Hippie Slippers (4) was 11 clicks above par early in debut versus open company and Cataldi had 16 bombs of the Shortenup (or Stretchout) type in L3T. Sandy was better than 50% ITM with 2TSs during the same period. Drop in class and switch to Garcia look right to me, but I don’t expect Hippie to go right to the lead today.
Mr. Bennett is 4-5 ITM with long layoffs at the meeting.
O’Connell is now 0-13 with L9up types.
$40 Win 4 $1.50 Trifectas All/4/All ($63)  (a big payout in this race would not surprise)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 5, 7, 8 WT 1, 5 WT 1, 4, 10 WT 6, 8 … ($.50) $24.00
Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 6 WT 1, 6, 8, 10 WT 4*** WT 2, 4, 9 … ($.50) $12.00
Best Bet ***
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Saturday, Jan. 24th
My long time readers know I’m not fond of an off or drying surface, so a condition today. If the inside is strong in races 1,2 & 3, our R4 selection is to be scrapped. In the 4th, Chuckmate (10) has improved some in every start here, going longer in each start. Chuck has won on an off track, and Woodard crushes it with this angle at the Mountain (42% W, 83% ITM) and tries it for the first time at Tampa today. $50 Win 10 $8 Saver Exacta 1/10
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Race 7 – Spec Play $10 Trifecta 3/5/10 $1 Superfectas 3/1,2,7,10/5/1,2,7,10 ($12)
 Race 10 – Spec Play $10 Trifectas 4/2,10/2,10 ($20)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 6, 9 WT 1, 11*** WT 1, 7, 10, 12 WT 4, 11, 12 … ($.50) $36.00
Late Pic 4 (8-11) ….3, 7, 11, 14 WT 3, 5, 9 WT 1, 7. 12 WT 2, 4, 8 … ($.50) $54.00
Best Bet
*** *****************************************************
Friday, Jan. 23rd
A tough card today and a bit of speculation is in order.
Race 6 – Nagle is now 4-9 win and 8-9 ITM with Plain Dropdowns. Calbo looks OK but O’Connor has gone to Lebron with anything live at the current meeting, however Pedroza always has the mount on the 10YO. Gatis usually gets it done in first three OC and has single angle stats that are only in the low teens here. PP12 hurts chances. $35 Weighted DDs 5,10/7
Race 7 – Arterburn wins 24% with Layoff + RtS types and is 14-28 ITM here with 1st OC in L4T. If alive in the DD save with 8/7 exacta $35 Win 7 $35 R7 DD 7/9 (only if the R8 AEs are out)
Race 8 – Reliable HVG  gets the call aboard Amaicing Gerry here in 1st OC for Barron after horrible start in last. Barron gets it done off the claim and HVG was 2nd in their only T/J combo try at the current meeting.
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 6, 7 WT 1, 2, 10 WT 3, 4 WT 5, 12 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 7, 8 WT 6, 10 WT 2, 6 WT 3, 6*** … ($.50) $12.00
 
Best Bet ***

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Wed., Jan. 21 st – Race 8 Freestyler (2) was a late starter but got rolling as a 4YO with 8 of 10 ITM last year. The gelding rallied from six wide against a pronounced inside bias on 12/31 and may improve further over an honest surface. Upgrades to Centeno today (as Lebron has gone cold). Dale Bennett’s piece, Tairneach (10) comes out of two good races. In last, the winner, Lucy Kitten went on to win an N$X and the runner up Red Zeus (who Tairneach beat two back on the dirt), was ITM in two HCPs and an NGS. Looking back two races, the winner Holiday Magic came back to win an NGS and the place horse, Evansville Storm finished mid-pack in a $150K Stakes. Bennett won 3 of 4 with L4-8 + TtoD + RtS types in L3T and was 60% ITM with 1PTBs in L3T. This one appears well intended. $60 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2,10 $12 Saver Trifectas 2,10/9/2,10 ($24) $1 Saver Supers 2,10/1,5,6,7/2,9,10/2,9,10 ($16) If Bennett’s piece is 9/2 or > at post time, add another $50 W & P on Tairneach (10) Mr. Pick Four’s Selections Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 5, 7 WT 3, 8 WT 6***, 7 WT 1, 4, 10 … ($.50) $18.00 Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 5, 8, 9 WT 4, 9 WT 2, 4, 7 WT 9 … ($.50) $12.00 Best Bet ***

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Sunday, Jan. 18th

Race 3

Nagle always goes to Gallardo, but he sticks with sub-par Bennett piece. Nevertheless, Nagle was 9-11 ITM with Non-layoff Stretchouts in L3T.

Inaswagger was sub-par in both tries but Mr. Bennett is 72% ITM with 1OC’s in L3T and 56% ITM with Shortenups during the same period.

HB Warrior chased very fast EP in last and his total energy for the race was above par. Barbaran, a 7% trainer in L4T wins 27% with Stretchouts and has some luck with FBKs.

$40 Weighted Exacta Key Box 8/3,5

$5 Saver Trifectas 3,5/3,5/8 ($10)

Race 6

Jojalais was well above par in both tries and  should get it done here with Gallardo sticking.

Negrete was 45% ITM with Plain Dropdown + Stretchout types at 10-1 odds in L3T and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting today. Javier also bombed with 1 of every 3 PTBs at $19-1 in L3T.

$40 Straight Exacta 3/7

$5 Saver Trifectas 3/2,4,10/7 ($15)

$20 DD 3/9

Today’s total wager $125

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 5, 8 WT 1, 7 WT 1, 4, 10 WT 4, 10, 12 … ($.50) $27.50

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 WT 2, 6 WT 2, 4, 6 WT 4*** … ($.50) $15.00
Best Bet ***

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Saturday, Jan. 17th

Race 1 $2 P3  1,7 WT 1-7 WT 1 ($28)

Race 6  – Dale Bennett will get going after a slow start and Big Reward (1) loves the track and the distance. Emigh sticks. Works are satisfactory.  Cataldi is 3-4 ITM with L + S types at the meeting and 15 of her 22 bombs in L3T were 1st 3 after Shipping types.  Mr. Bennett is now 6-13 win with 1OC + FBK + Shortenup types in L3T.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 9/1,3

Race 7 $2 Pick 4  1,3,4 WT 2,10 WT 4,6,8 WT 10 ($36)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 7, 9 WT 2, 3, 12 WT 6, 8 WT 1, 5 … ($.50) $ 18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4, 6, 7 WT 7, 9, 11 WT 2***, 5 WT 2, 10 … ($.50) $18.00

Best Bet ***

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Jan. 16th – Day 25

Enthusiasm for today’s card is low….caveat emptor.

Race 2 – $2 Pick 3  –  7 WT 1,2,4,5 WT 2,3,10 ($24)

Race 3 – $1.00 Pick 4   –  1,2,4,5 WT 2,3,10 WT 2,3,7 WT 1 ($36) OFF TURF

Race 6 – Scorpion Time’s (1) trainer has a bunch of solid angles in play today. Gatis won 31% and was 75% ITM with L1-3 + Dropdowns in L3T, was 4 of 5 ITM with L1-3 + 1PTBs, and was 70% ITM with TtoDs during the same period. ST has hit the board frequently but has failed to get to the winner’s circle in 18 months (since being claimed for $15K). Gallardo takes the mount. This one is right there or finishes up the track. Flip a coin.

Wasiluk is 38-108 ITM with Plain Shortenups at average odds of $10-1 and Signor Martini (3) raced wide over a surface with a pronounced inside bias on 12/31. Why RoHo had the gelding in the middle of the track is a mystery as she had plenty of room to navigate to the inside.

Jim Wright has no luck with StR types but Hi Poppy (9) likes the distance and Wright was 3-5 ITM with 2L1-3 + 2S + No Class Change types recently but Poppy hugged the rail with the bias throughout on 12/31.

Granitz is 50% ITM (16-32) with Plain Shortenups in L3T and goes to Allen (as Mojica sticks with Poppy).

$56 Win 1

$10 Saver Exacta 10/1

$5 Saver Trifectas 9/1,10/,1,10

$76 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/9,10 the odds are right

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 8 WT 2, 7, 10 WT 7, 3 , 7 WT 3 … ($.50) $9.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 8, 9 WT 5, 8 WT 3 ***, 7 WT 3, 7, 8, 9 … ($.50) 12.00

Best Bet ***

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Jan. 14th – Race 5
PTBs (Previously Trained By) runners are often enigmatic for the casual player, but serious handicapper’s find some of their best plays with them. PTBs come in two forms. There is surrogacy, where today’s identified trainer has entered another’s well intended runner on that other conditioner’s behalf (ostensibly because he/she is not presently authorized to run at Tampa) and then there is adoption. In adoption, the new trainer has accepted responsibility for the care and expense of a horse that another conditioner has given up on (often for free or for very little compensation). Adopted horses generally move from a more successful barn to a less successful one and rarely improve. Obviously, knowing one from the other is essential to finding winners.
Today, we have a leading barn (Dacosta) running one for Navarro, #2 leading trainer here in 12-13 and #3 in 11-12. (If memory serves me, he was warned off last season, along with Cibelli) and both used the surrogacy loophole to make their withdrawals last season. Dacosta was 73% ITM with PTBs in L3T and Navarro was 33% Win and 100% (7-7) ITM with today’s angle (L4-8 + S + Dropdown + Shortenup) in P3T. Gallardo is up.
Jersey Blue Giant comes out of race that saw one winner in its next start (but it was miserably sub-par) and all the rest ran and did nothing. Ditto for the 3,4,5 & 10 (nothing from anybody).
Rigattieri is 1-12 with 2S types.
My Brown Eyed Guy (6) owned the rail throughout on a day when there was a pronounced inside bias (a Golden Rail day over a drying surface) and failed to get it done while clear of the field after a half mile.
Only 4% of the runners claimed from Sano have won in 1st 3 OC in L4T, so that puts us off Newspaper Boy (12).
Now McCarthy’s piece was closest to par in both tries and likes the distance and she is OK with FBKs. Last year she went to 15 different riders, this season she’s sticking with Bush and they are 3-7 ITM at good odds at the meeting.
$200 Weighted Exacta Box 7,9
$15 Saver Trifectas 9/1,6,8/7 (if the 9 is 2-1 or > at post time)
9 upgrades to $100 ATB at these generous odds
$7 Pick 3’s 7,9 WT 2,3,7 WT 4,8 ($84)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 2, 7 WT 3, 5 WT 2, 7, 8 WT 1, 9 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 3, 5, 8 WT 4, 7, 8 WT 3***, 7 WT 5 … ($.50) $12.00

Best Bet ***

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Sunday, Jan. 11th

Race 2

Spec Play -$10 Pick 3 –  6 WT 1,2 WT 9 ($20)

Spec Play –   $5 Pick 3 –  6 WT 3 WT 9 ($10)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 3 WT 1, 4, 6 WT 2, 6 WT 4, 5, 10 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4, 7 WT 1, 5, 7 WT 5, 7, 10 WT 6, 10*** … ($.50) $ 18.00

Best Bet ***

Race 7

Spec Play – $3 Trifectas – 7/3,5,9/All

Race 9

Caleb’s Comet (10) had a horrible trip in Tampa debut and was still close to par, gets another chance today, but the pronounced outside bias may have evaporated after a two week long run.

Go Bernie Go  (5) showed above par ES in Tampa debut at 6F and looks right here, but speed has not been holding up at the current meeting. Speed has an IV of only 0.40 at the meeting.

$50 Weighted Exacta  Box 5,10

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Saturday, Jan. 10th Race 8
Cee ‘n O was a couple of clicks above today’s Stakes par in monster win Dec. 20th. He shortens up at least 100 feet today at the regular 5F distance, with the rail at less than 22 feet and with the shorter run-up. Ness was 81% ITM with RB + UC + Shortenup types in L5T and on the off chance CNO goes off the favorite, Ness then wins 63% and was 100% ITM (19-19) in L5T. (edited)
Conditional Trifectas if Cee ‘n O is 7-1 or >
$5 Trifectas 8,10,11/6/8,10,11,13 ($45)
$1.5oTrifectas 2,4,5,7,8,9,10,11/8,10,11,13/6 ($42)
$20 Saver DD 6/2
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections
Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 6 WT 3, 4, 6, 7, 9 WT 7, 9, 11 WT 2, 7 … ($.50) $15.00Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 5, 7, 11 WT 8***, 10 WT 9, 11 WT 8, 10 …($.50) $12.00Best Bet ***
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Jan. 9th – Race 8
Ritmo Criollo was ITM in 6 of 7 off the Layoff lifetime and Vinson has been virtually flawless at Tampa this season and last and is 3-3 ITM with Layoffs during the same period. Why he entered Ritmo for a $1K purse in last has me a bit confused but I don’t argue with success.Absence of Gallardo aboard Nagle’s piece is discomforting, but he’s gone to four different riders in as many starts at the meeting. He wins 31% and is 56% ITM with 2S types in L3T.Patrick has won 2 of 3 with L1-3 + RtS types at the meeting, but it’s not one of his regular angles and this class drop gives me the willies.Weighted $50 Exacta Box 6,8
$4 Saver Trifectas 6,7,8/1,2,7/6,7,8 ($56)Mr. Pick Four’s SelectionsEarly Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 3, 8 WT 4***, 9 WT 4, 9 WT 3, 4 … ($.50) $12.00Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 2, 5, 7 WT 4, 9 WT 1, 6, 8 WT 10 … ($.50) $12.00Best Bet **********************************

Wed., Jan. 7th

Race 2

It’s hard to leave Ziadie off the top of the ticket with his 44% W and 94% ITM record at Tampa on the dirt in L5T, but Get Creative (2) will have to overcome forces other than the competition today. Twenty five of the last 27 on the dirt have been won from PPs 4-10 and front runners have an IV of 0.24 at the current meeting. Basically, the kiss of death, even for a “super trainer”.

Dadtaughtmewell (8) has multiple positives here. In last at 8.32F, the 3YO made a final velocity of 53.49 fps, 3.14 fps faster than today’s par. His %E of 50.97% was in the acceptable range for a 6.5F attempt today. Utilizing the most current Track Equalization table available, Dad shares the honors for the best adjusted final time in the field with Ziadie’s piece.

Bennett is off slowly at the meeting and is 0-9 with L1-3s.

Kirk’s piece’s final velocity in maiden win was 2.10 fps below today’s par.

Hinsley is 0-14 with Rightback’s in L3T.

$100 Exacta 8/2
$1 Saver Superfecta 8/All/2/All ($30)

Race 5

Bonesprings (3) lost his stride while swinging wide for racing room mid-stretch in last and still made a par number. Wilkes and Allen won 23% (53% ITM) last season and Wilkes won 48% (30-62) when the favorite in L6T (his very best angle).

Win 3
Saver Exacta 6/3
Saver Trifectas 1,8,9/3,6/3,6

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Sunday – Jan. 4th

Note: with the exception of the day after the rains came earlier this week, 18 of the last 20 on the dirt were won from PPs 5-9 and front runners have an IV of less than 0.25 at the meeting.

Race 4

Last season Ward won 5 of 9 with Plain Shortenups and Scarlett Del (9) went 99-90 in a par 89-89 in first try. She looks tough to beat today.

$100 Win 9

$50 DD 9/5

$20 Pick 3  – 9 WT 5 WT 10

Race 5

Mott has not missed the board with a 2L here in years. Boss Man (5) races in the sweet spot for today’s race (87% of 8.5F on the Turf were won from 2 lengths off the pace last season) and he made a +2 final fraction just four weeks ago at GP.

$100 Win 5  Scratched

Race 6

If live in the P3, save with 2,3,8/10 exactas.

Race 8

$75 Weighted Exactas 6,9,10/4

$5 Saver Trifectas 6,9,10/6,9,10/4 ($30)

Saver $25 Win 4

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 3, 6, 8 WT 1, 9 WT 5, 7 WT 9, 10 … ($.50) $16.00

 Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 7, 8, 10 WT 4, 6, 10 WT 6*** WT 2, 4 … ($.50) $12.00

Best Bet ***

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Saturday, Jan. 3rd – Races 1 & 2
Optional Claiming races often make it easier to identify contenders and such is the case in today’s early daily double.
Race 1 – Gimmeadrink (6) has been steadily ascending since being claimed for $6250 nearly a year ago and the legit horse for the course fits best here. Dale Bennett arrived a bit late this season, but his barn is bound to start getting it done. Dale was 44% Win with Non-layoff Shippers and won 36% with RtS types in L3T. He gets red hot Gallardo to ride. Sharp work last week is encouraging.
Race 2 – BL’s Wagon (1) was well above par in Opening Day win while beating Tampa regular and odds-on favorite Lil Escape Artist, and two out of that race finished up close for $8K in their next start. Galiana (8) has earned $209K since being claimed for $7500 in April of 2014 and was also well above par in OC100 on the turf in first try. Four per cent apprentice rider is scary but ya gotta believe Romero is looking to maximize his return on investment before Galiana is no longer eligible for the condition.Race 1 $50 Win 6
Race 1 & 2 $50 Weighted Daily Double 6/1,8This play could be scrapped if it’s too short…..check in 10 min before they go to the post.The 6/8 DD is at $8 with $8K in the pool, so that kills that……standby for another play.Race 6 Alternate Play$60 Weighted Straight Exactas 2,6,9/10$36 Saver Trifectas 2,6,9/1,2,6,9/10$12 Saver Win 10

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 6*** WT 3, 8, 9 WT 1, 2, 6, 11 WT 1, 2, 6 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 4, 6, 7 WT 1, 3 WT 8 WT 2, 6 … ($.50) $8.00

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Jan. 2nd – Race 4
A tough card today, with serious threats from Ziadie (1,3) and Terranova (6,10), strong angles from Ness (5) and a couple of wide open maiden turf races (6,8), including a marathon (6), so we’ve settled on Race 4.I’ve observed that bug boy L. Figueroa has had some live mounts but his timing is bad (he’s always too late). He was up on Mr. B.W. in last two and this old gelding had lots left in deep stretch last time out. Switch to Dean Butler greatly improves chances for a runner that is nearly 50% ITM at today’s distance and Raymond was 43% ITM with No Change types in L3T.Livin Large (10) has been right there three times at related distances at Tampa in 2012 and 2013 and may be ready to strike, but Spanish native Silvia Zapico is winless in 2014 and Sobarzo always went to Eddie Dominguez when he struck with Livin Large in the past. It’s a roll of the dice today.$3 Trifectas All/1/4,6,10 ($72)
$1 Saver Trifectas 4,6,10/4,6,10/1 ($6)
$22 Saver Win 1Mr. Pick Four’s SelectionsEarly Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 9 WT 3, 8, 9 WT 3, 9 WT 2, 4, 5 … ($.50) $27.50 Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 4, 5 WT 4, 5, 6 WT 1***, 5 WT 6, 8 … ($.50) $18.00Best Bet ***

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Dec. 31st – Race 1

Arterburn is always trying at Tampa with maidens in their first few starts and he won 20% and was 55% ITM with Brittany in the irons last season. Inaswagger (7) trailed after being banged around at the break, then advanced steadily to mid-stretch and was not asked to run through the final stages. He gets another chance today and the odds will be generous.

$60 Win (7)

$30 in Weighted Saver Exactas 5,9/7

$5 Saver Trifectas 6/7/5,9

Off track and short odds put us off this play….CANCELLED

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 2, 4, 5 WT 7*** WT 6, 12 WT 2, 9 … ($.50) $8.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10 WT 4, 7 WT 6, 12 WT 7 … ($.50) $12.00

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Dec. 28th –  Race 9

When you are making only one play each race day, keying in on the same horse more than once is a lot like marrying the same girl twice, but Juliebrowneyes (5) was eased from the 16th pole to the wire, was close to par in spite of the throttle down and Williams was 13-18 with Stretchouts in L3T.

Abiding Love (9) beat Punisher in last and the latter came back to win with above par numbers next time out and Benny Feliciano was 5-8 ITM with RB + UC types in L3T. We contrast that with Carolina Cruisin’s (8) last in which the other top four were soundly beaten in their next start.

$64 Weighted Exacta Box 5,9

$5 Saver Trifectas 5,9/2,3,10/5,9 ($30)

$1 Saver Superfecta 5,9/4/5,9/2,3,10 ($6)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 7*** WT 1, 5, 7, 8 WT 4, 6 WT 5, 6 … ($.50) $16.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 6, 8 WT 6, 8, 9 WT 5, 8 WT 6, 7 … ($.50) $18.00

 Best Bet ***

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Saturday – Dec. 27th – Race 3, 4 & 5

In race 4, Broncojoenvinny (6) looks like today’s best bet and may go to the post as the odds-on choice. The 3YO went 105-91 in a par 95-94 in last and should control the pace again today. If Pablo can throttle him down a bit, Joe should have plenty left in the tank while stretching out.

We look to the Race 3 DD and Pick 3 to try to get the best value (early) out of our Race 4 selection.

Race 3 $40 Weighted DDs 1,4/6

Race 3 Pick 3 $10 1,4/6/1,3,10 ($60)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5 WT 1, 6, 9 WT 1, 3, 4, 8 WT 6 … ($.50) $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 5, 6, 9 WT 2, 5*** WT 4, 9 WT 2, 4, 10 … ($.50) $24.00

Best Bet ***

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Friday – Dec. 26th – Race 9
Super sire of Florida-breds that love Tampa, Put It Back, won last five starts (all sprints) and capped career off with win in Riva Ridge Stakes (G2) at Belmont. His son, Call Me Back was well above par early in 14-15 Tampa debut and was just headed after six panels by fit and ready Twocubanbrothersu (who put away Professor Palmer in first try and the latter came back to win in next start). The 4YOs conditioner, Gary Jackson is 9-13 ITM with Non-layoff 2S types and 9-13 ITM with RtSs in L3T. I gotta believe Gary is well intended here. Unfortunately Centeno jumps (for Gatis runner) but Danny doesn’t have a crystal ball. 3YO from Rigatierri will have to show me more before he can beat this battled scarred group. Bush piece is always sub-par. Cathcart has no layoff wins here in L2T. Chia Spice went 92-92 in a par 97-98 last time out and faces N2Ys today but Gallardo is up. Plant City Red will bomb sooner or later, but Raymond is only 7-157 with 2S types in L3T. Bahim (another bomber) went 88-92 in first try, but Maysonett is on fire with Hayford-Q runners. Pulling Away won by 5 two back but the fig was sub-par, I’m not impressed. (edited 12/26 0800).
$70 Weighted Exactas 4,6,7/8
$30 Saver Win – Call Me Back (8) (check program numbers)
Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 6*** WT 2, 5 WT 1, 3, 5, 9 WT 3, 7 … ($.50) $ 8.00

 Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 7, 9 WT 7, 9, 10 WT 7, 9 WT 1 … ($.50) $9.00

 Best Bet ***

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Sunday – Dec. 21st – Race 6
A very tough card, but on the 3rd go round we came up with a play.Lynn Scace was 45% ITM at average odds of $14-1 at the last five meetings with L4-8 + Dropdown types and was 62% ITM with 1st 3 PTBs during the same period and Briteliteinthecity (8) made par final fractions in two tries at the distance over the summer.Fly’n Bayou fits at this level and Minnock has satisfactory stats with today’s angles.KOC is 50% ITM with Rightbacks and has a 26% win strike rate with the multiple angle in play here.$76 Weighted Exacta Key Box 8/1,5 (check these program numbers)$3 Saver Trifectas 3,4,6,9/8/1,5

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4 WT 1, 7 WT 2***, 10, 11 WT 1, 5, 8 … ($.50) $18.00

 Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 3, 4, 5 WT 1, 2, 5, 7 WT 6, 8 WT 11 … ($.50) $16.00

 Best Bet ***

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Saturday – Dec. 20th – Race 3
At his inaugural Tampa meeting, the younger Vinson, now out of the shadows of old man Garner H. (but the son is as old as I am) was 71% ITM with all starters, including 5 bombs, and has not missed with a Layoff on the Dirt yet. Pick The Double (4) likes the Downs, has been working well for the past month and gets Harry Vega in the irons.
Woodard is now 4-10 W and 5-10 ITM with Layoff + Shipper types. He was 6-7 ITM with L4-8’s at the Mountain in L3M, and Tie Dye (7) is 5-7 ITM on the dirt.
$50 Win 4
$20 Saver Exacta 7/4
Late Pick 3 $5 Tix 3/8,10/4,6,7 ($30)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

 Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 4, 5 WT 8 WT 1, 2***, 5 WT 1, 2, 6 … ($.50) $13.50

 Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 7, 9 WT 3, 4 WT 2, 4, 10 WT 1, 7 … ($.50) $18.00 

Best Bet ***

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Friday – Dec. 19thToday we have a multi-race play, doubling our wager dollars and splitting them between the 1st and the 2nd.1st – Pocket Medal (1) makes a sensible drop after being claimed for $5K in August. The oldtimer vied for the lead after nearly 5 1/2F in last and Granitz is 80% ITM with RtS types in L3T. Amaicing Gerry (4) has bombed here multiple times in L2T, including once off the layoff in 2013 (at $20-1). Last in the mud is excused. In previous Gerry necked out another Tampa bomber Plant City Red (five bombs in L2T) and that caught my eye.McCarthy is only 8% Win at Tampa with Rightbacks.McCullough is 1-36 with Plain FBKs.Feliciano is 0-20 with L1-3 + Rightbacks.Woodard had solid angles in Kitty’s first try and didn’t show much going 86 late in a par 98, and is downgraded today while remaining a threat.Sienkiewicz crushes it with 1PTBs but is 0-6 (none in the money) with 2PTBs. He’s had his shot apparently.$52 Weighted Exacta Box 1,4and $6 Saver Trifectas 1,4/6,8/1,4,6,8 ($48)$70 Weighted Daily Double 1,4/42nd – Silver Forked Sky (4) was above today’s par despite being soundly beaten on the lawn on Cotillion Cup day, so fitness is not an issue. Woodard was 7-7 ITM with TtoD + RtS types at the Mountain and he wins with 2S, FBK, and OC types.Dacosta is 7-14 Win with 2YOs here in L3T and is above 30% win with all the angles in play here. He saves the bet if necessary.$30 Saver Exacta 8/4Mr. Pick Four’s SelectionsEarly Pic 4 (3-6) …. All (6) WT 3, 10 WT 2, 6, 10 WT 9 … ($.50) $18.00Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 4*** WT 6, 8, 11 WT 2, 9 WT 2, 4, 10 …($.50) $9.00Best Bet ***

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December 17th – 6th

Mr. Bennett has had 20 starts already and today we finally see a firster named Zephyr Bay (6).  Gerry is 27% win and 53% ITM with firsters in L5T and he was 6-13 ITM with 2YOs going into Opening Day but has struck out in three tries at the meeting. I suspect that he’s overdue and we may get a decent price today before his first time starters start to pile up the wins.

His son Dale, was 44% Win and 75% ITM with Non-layoff Shippers in L5T and won 36% with RtS types during the same period. Dale is 56% ITM at the last six meetings with all starters. After a long dominating run here, conflicts kept Dale away from Tampa for a bit, but he returned last season and resumed his winning ways. We note that at the 2010-2011 meeting, he was 0-34 with anything >$2.70-1 at post time, but last year 37% of his runners were ITM at better than $5-1 (including six winners). Could his absence have added that much value at the windows? Did some shark with a fixation on Bennett’s runners kick the bucket? I don’t know, but after last year’s performance we upgrade Karmic’s chances (we gotta get a price today based on Karmic’s record).

$60 Win 6

$7 Saver Trifectas 1,12/6/1,9,12 ($28)

$4 Saver Trifectas 9/6/1,12 ($8)

$0.50 Saver Superfecta 1,12/6/3,11/1,9,12 ($4)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 5, 8 WT 2, 3, 7 WT 3, 5 WT 2, 7 … ($.50) $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 9, 12 WT 4, 6, 10 WT 6, 10 WT 3***, 4 … ($.50) $12.00

Best Bet ***

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Saturday – Dec 13th Race 10

Yanks Geopardy (9) shortens up today after making par EP before weakening late at 6F on Opening Day and is likely to improve in 2nd off the long layoff.

Multiple bomb makers are represented here so we leave the door open for a big surprise at the wire.

Dubious Bachelor (11) goes for veteran Tampa conditioner Donald Hunt. DB has been racing forwardly on the grass, but a series of very sharp recent works at the Classic Mile indicate readiness for a dash attempt.  Hunt is 6-12 ITM with Layoffs on the Dirt here in L5T.

$4 Trifectas All/11/4,9 ($72)

Weighted Saver Exacta Box 9,11 ($28)

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 5 WT 4*** WT 1, 7, 8 WT 4, 6, 9 … ($.50) $9.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 3, 5, 9, 10 WT 3, 7 WT 2, 3, 5 WT 6, 10 … ($.50) $30.00
 
Best Bet ***
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Friday -Dec. 12th Race 8Rhinestone Diva (7) comes out of two N1X races with $22K purses at Churchill and drops to rock bottom today with Gallardo up after two wins in four tries at the right level over the summer. If she’s not lame, she should handle these even if challenged for control on the front end.Juliebrowneyes (6) was an above par dueler here last season (but goes both ways) and is better than 50% ITM lifetime over a FAST dirt surface. Williams gets it done with long layoffs and RoHo is in the irons. Sharp recent work at the Starting Gate Center is encouraging. Looks right to me.The 1,2,3 & 4 were all subpar in first try and the always dangerous Aldana Gonzalez has a weakness here. She is 0-15 here with shortenups.Wasiluk’s piece (5) was close to par in first try but he’s a 3% trainer with Non-layoff 2S types.Cataldi (8) is another dangerous conditioner, but she is only 1-29 with Up In Class types.Barbaran (9) is 0-18 with L4-8s.Miguel Feliciano’s runner (10) must be dropping in class (despite appearances) after going to post at 56-1 in last, and he is 9-14 ITM with this type in L3T.Sub-par cheapie Get On With It (11) can’t be given any consideration.$50 Straight Exacta 7/6
$10 Trifectas 6,7/5,10/6,7 ($40)
$1.00 Superfectas 6/7/1,4,5,8,10/5,10 ($10)Mr. Pick Four’s SelectionsEarly Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 9 WT All WT 11*** WT 10 …. ($.50) $9.00Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 4 WT 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8 WT 5, 7 WT 5 …. ($.50) $12.00Best Bet ***

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Wed. – Dec 10th

6th – Magic Luck should offer some value here (beaten a total of 65 lengths in last four) but turf tries and off track starts are excused. Jason is 53% Win (10-19) with L1-3 + S + Dropdown + StR types and 10-11 ITM with TtoD types in L3T. Plays like this are the reason we make our profiles.

$50 Win and $50 Place

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 5***, 6 WT 2, 3, 6 WT 3, 5, 8 WT 2, 5, 11 … ($.50) $ 27.00

 Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 8 WT 3, 4, 7 WT 2, 6, WT 1, 2, 7 … ($.50) $18.00

*** BEST BET

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Saturday – Dec. 6th

Once a year we are subjected to a card full of baby races and it’s usually a day to sit back and watch the races with an eye toward identifying some future opportunity.

There are a couple of standouts that will strip any value out of your multi-race plays, namely Pletcher’s Al Khazaaliya in the 3rd (Todd is 6-6 Win with this multiple angle) and Scott’s Scottish Sweetie in the 5th (Joan is 6-7 Win with her multiple angle today).

A very competitive 9th and a very weak field in the 10th leaves us with a Pick 3 in races 6, 7 & 8.

Race 6 $7 Pick 3 – 2,4,10 w 2,6,10 w 4,8
Race 6 $1.50 Saver Pick 3 – 2,4,10 w 2,6,10 w 6,7
Race 6 $1 Saver Pick 3 – 3 w 2,6,10 w 4,6,8

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 5, 6 WT 1, 4, 7 WT 1, 4, 6 WT 8, 10 … ($.50) $27.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 10 WT 6***, 9 WT 4, 6, 9 WT 1, 3 … ($.50) $12.00

Best Bet ***

Good luck and good racing! See you on Wednesday.

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Friday, Dec. 5th – Race 4

Peter Gulyas is a low profile trainer with only a few hundred starts since 2009 and a 15% win rate lifetime, but he’s 2-7 Win and 3-7 ITM here at the Downs at average odds of $12-1 during the same period. He can strike on the dirt or turf, with rock bottom maidens or in Stakes, so we’re backing him here with Annabella Hall. The filly made her career best Beyer in last (despite being trounced) and drops to the 2nd wrung on the ladder today, with Uske up. Shannon coincidentally won two and was 5-10 ITM in dirt sprints last season, while doing nothing at the route or on the grass. Sharp gate work at three panels adds to my enthusiasm. Hernandez’ piece showed something  in last two near the bottom (albeit on the lawn) and has two 2nds in only six tries while well placed throughout over a FAST track. Gonzalez has single ITM stats that are all above 50% here and Butler was 63% ITM when teamed up with this conditioner last season. Barbaran is 2-38 with PTBs and has no long layoff starts. On the far outside, Thomas is 1-26 with TtoD types and Negrete is 0-fer with all four angles in L3T.

$68 Weighted Exacta Key Box 3/8,9

$8 Saver Trifectas 3/2,10/8,9

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Wed. 12/3 – Our featured race today is the 2nd.

Oriana Rossi was out in the parking lot turning for home in the 5th on Opening Day, but the Wirth/Rossi combo is undeniable, with 27 of 46 ITM at the last two meetings. Mr. Wirth has all solid angle stats here, so The One Thing can be counted on to be there. Ray Trisler is 19% Win lifetime and The Candidate delivered both times when odds-on.and has multiple above par performances. Roho is back and improves the lightly raced 4YO’s chances. Mr. Bennett is 0-17 with L1-3 + UC + StR types in L3T. Bobby Raymond has all low single digit stats with these angles. Conkey was 2-4 ITM with L1-3 + S + UC types at average odds of $112-1 (and that’s no typo).

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 7,9

$5 Saver Trifectas 7,9/1,3,6,8/7,9

Mr. Pick Four’s Selections Early Pic 4 ( 2-5 ) …. 6, 7, 9 WT 7, 9 WT 2, 4 WT 4***, 8 …. ( $.50 ) $12.00

Late Pic 4 ( 6-9 ) …. 4, 7 WT 1, 4, 5, 7 WT 2, 11 WT 7 …. ( $.50) $8.00 *** Best Bet

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Opening Day 2014-2015

Just this once, I’m providing the full card since it is Opening Day, but look for my single FREE SELECTION every race day. Good luck and good racing!

1st – Backstreet Charlie goes for Granitz and he is 4-11 Win with 1st PTBs recently. The 2YO went 18.20 late in last and only needs a 19.80 to be par here. Ronnie Allen Jr has the mount and he’s the best in the colony from the chute.

2nd – My Trainer of the Year, Baltazar Galvan, bombed with two in their first couple of starts last season and along with his boy , Gary Wales, combined for a strike rate of 56% ITM at average odds of $12-1 last year.

3rd – Ness piece Lil Escape Artist is 6 of 8 ITM here in Oldsmar, had a solid 6F work recently and Gallardo is up. Expect a good effort today. Moonshine Promise beat Ramsey bred 4 year old filly Virginia’s Joy (19 3-6-3) in last and the latter was an up close 2nd in an $18K claimer at Hawthorne recently. Mike Allen doubled his usual strike rate from the chute last year. Saul Matos won in first try OC at the last meeting and has shown himself to be competent. He’s got Pablo Morales up. Pablo was 50% ITM with all mounts here last year but the competitive jockey colony kept him from getting a greater share of the winners.

Mr. Pick Four’s Opening Day Selections Folks, bear in mind that these selections are for an ECONOMY ticket ….feel free to add your own selections to the mix, BUT, bear in mind it will increase the final cost of your ticket …….Good Luck & Good Racing !!!

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 5, 7 WT 3 WT 3, 5**, 9 WT 2, 10 … ($.50) $9.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) ….7, 8, 11 WT 3, 5, 6, 8, 10 WT 9, 12 WT 2 … ($.50) $15.00

BEST BET ** Kevin P

4th – We don’t have a Tampa profile for Joe Woodard, but he’s no stranger to the Downs. We do, however, have his MNR profile (we had a good run there in 2014) and he won 50% and was 83% ITM with this angle (L1-3 + S + 2OC) in L3M. Definitely worth a shot on the drop and the price will be right.

5th – Learn The Lingo found the circle in 6 of last 12 here and Mandy Ness is having her career best year in 2014 and FDLC, leading rider at the recently completed Indiana meeting also outperformed his overall win % from the chute last season. RG Smith was ITM with 5 of 6 L1-3 + RtS types in L3T, but absence of Allen in the irons (31% Win with Smith last season) tempers our enthusiasm for Anchorwoman a bit.

6th – Joan Scott is 5 of 6 win with today’s angle, claims from the Ramseys eventually get to the circle, big class drop and series of sharp Tampa works say yes to Indygo FMA with Centeno aboard. Delacour has a 54% win angle here but the PTB is the wrinkle. He’s won only 1 of 11 with 1st PTB types in L2T. Stewart has all solid numbers here, Gallardo is up and Diana’s Daisy made par final fraction while gaining late just two weeks ago.

7th – Again, we rely on Woodard’s MNR profile here. Joe won 44% with this angle at the Mountain in L3M when the favorite and could be the top choice with Ness’ piece likely to be on the far outside. Even if Joe isn’t favored, I think Kitty’s Turn will be well intended today. Save with Jarrod and Alex.

8th – Awesome Attack goes for Loza and he never missed the board in 10 starts here in L2T. A review of AA’s starts indicate that racing luck alone has kept this horse from having 3 or 4 turf wins instead of one (with several lost over a head bob). His final fraction in last was par and he’s been based in south Florida, alleviating concerns I have about the bad weather in the north and midwest recently, as well as the summary closure of Suffolk Downs. Gallardo is up. Ditto for Ward’s runner Saturday’s for Fun with respect to coming up from the south and making a par final fraction in last. Dennis has 50% ITM with the angles in play here. Vacation Time makes only 2nd start at this level in the past year, all Gonzalez’s ITM angles here are high and Butler and Gonz were 63% ITM when teamed up last season. Today’s $100 Play – Weighted Exacta Key Box 8/1,5 (check the final program numbers)

9th – Haywired has been solid since claimed for $6250 nearly a year ago and Dacosta won 53% with L1-3 + S + UC types in L3T. Sharp recent work indicates readiness. Three sub-par starts, drop in class and monster 5F work from Ness runner Guam Typhoon look wrong here.

10th – Royal Hill goes for Mr. Bennett and he was 3-3 win with L1-3 + S + DtoT types in L3T. His regular boy is up and RH has been on the grounds since the backside reopened.

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July 1st – Day 1

Always check the official program numbers before wagering.

2nd – Gently used Pleasant McGee (3), a P. Noel Hickey runner, comes back with Rick Creel as surrogate. Old man Hickey had a great meeting in 12-13, better than 50% ITM with 15% winners but was absent at the past meeting. It appears he’s left the game but Creel has gotten it done for us in the past. Two sharp recent works at the Starting Gate Center say the 7yo is ready and she’s always par. Hickey went to Santos regularly two meetings back. The combo won 15% and was 62% ITM. Additionally, when McGee won two back it was a 90 degree spring day at the Downs and it’s gonna be hot again this afternoon.

Win 3 and Saver Trifectas 1,2,4,6/3/1,2,4,6 (12 bets)

Mr. Pick Four’s Early Pic 4 (1-4) …. 1, 6, 7 WT 3, 6 WT 1** WT 5, 6, 7 … ($.50) $9.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1, 4, 7 WT 1, 6 WT 4 WT 3, 4, 5 … ($.50) $9.00

Best Bet **

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