IT’S FREE PLAY Wednesday – Nov. 29th Day 4

1^st – Ochoa is 15 & 44 with his angle and had most of his success with Arroyo in the irons last year.

Dini is leaning into his newfound success. In this race, he has a 61% ITM angle, the L1-3 + S + TtoD, is 21 & 56 with Dropdowns and 23% Win with 2YOs. Mike is already 63% ITM with 3 Wins at the meeting.

Weighted DD 3,4,5,7/4,5 (8 bets)

Saver Pick 3 – 3,4,5,7/3/1,2,3,6 (12 bets) to cover

2^nd – Ness’ Lady Prospect (4) went 4 better than par last week and he is 48% Win with the RB + UC + FBK. (Chew on this…Jamie is 44% Win with three-peats here in Oldsmar).

KOC is 34% Win with L1-3 + RB + UC types.

DDs 4,5/2,3 (4 bets)

Saver Pick 3 – 4,5/1,6/1,7,8,10 (16 bets) to cover

3^rd – Mr. Bennett presents with a 1-33 Weakness Angle, the Shipper + DtoT.

Harty has gone to Gallardo only once in P3T. I can’t get behind that…

Dini 2.0 is 46% Win on the RB if the favorite.

Delacour has 5 above par singles (but no multiple angle).

DDs 2,3/1,7,10

4^th – Lusk 4-134, Gurrola 2-58, Spanabel 3 of last 66, Marrero 0-47, Dobber 0-34

$0.50 Trifecta Box 1,7,8,10 ($12)

5^th – Ochoa is 48% Win with L4-8 + Shortenup angle in 23 tries….nuff said.

$3 Exacta Key Box 8/1,4,12 ($18)

6^th – Arriagada and Rigattieri are both 66% ITM with RtSs. Maybe we can make something out of that here…

Exactas 2,8/3,6 (4 bets)

Trifectas All/3,6/2,8 (24 bets)

7^th – Campbell makes first appearance and we have a profile for him for 23-24.  Michael is 4 for 4 ITM with Layoff + Shipper + Surface Change types, 30 & 50 with the UC move and 44% Win when 5-2 or less. I wanna strike while the iron is new.

$15 ATB 7

Exacta Key Box 7/2,3,8 and Saver Trifectas 2,3,7,8/11,12/2,3,7,8 (24 bets)

8^th – Nine of eighteen have been won wire to wire and 4 from PP1. Gatis has Ferrer up and he had an IV of 1.46 from the chute last year. Chris outperforms with all his singles. May try to zip at 7F given the favorable conditions presented.

$5 ATB 1 for 6-1 or >

9^th – Rodriguez is 3 for 3 ITM with UCEs, a new thing for him. Sandy (1) has all above par singles and Darien is >80% ITM with Dr. No up. The other, Ultimate Irony (5) has a 33 & 56 angle with the DtoT.

JH Delgado popped in 1^st try of the meeting. He is 46 & 55 if the top choice in this scenario.

$0.50 Trifecta Box 1,5,7,8 ($12)

*****

FRIDAY – November 24th

A fun Opening Day with Dini making a couple of miracles, my biggest play of the day missing the board by 3 lengths at 12-1, and then my “short on value favorite” paying $12 for the win. So it goes…

With a bunch of newcomers getting my top billing today, I’m going to sit this one out.

1^st – Breen, Sepulveda and Dini all have 25% Win angles and Dini 2.0 is 88% ITM if the favorite in this scenario. I happen to like these in that order.

Breen’s piece is by Quality Road (17.3% Winners here), makes a logical drop on 3^rd OC and Kelly’s AEPS is $7500 in L3.

Win 2 and Trifectas 2/5/6

2^nd – You all know that I’ve been focused on Gallardo’s modus operandi for the past 3 or 4 years and especially when up for KOC and with certain owners. We know that Dr. No is only 26% win when up for KOC and the favorite. To dig deeper, I looked at what he does for KOC’s owners. He’s 1-13 (but 7 ITM) when up for Stonehedge. Bad luck or conspiracy? A few more and we’ll know for sure.

Gimme Practicality (1). Has been racing at a higher level, on an off track and at the wrong distance. Arriagada is 22% Win with this type and has his top rider up, Batista 25 & 60 in L4T for Juan.

Win 1

3^rd – Pyron (6) comes out of a SALW12,500 and drops for the win in 3^rd OC for Arriagada who is 27 & 61 with dropdowns and 100% ITM with 6 wins if  the favorite with PTBs. Batista, his go to, is off….hmmm

When Hernandez Jr. hit the scene with 24 wins in 70 starts here in 2014-2015,I thought he might be a force to be reckoned with, but then he went missing and has had fewer and fewer starts at each meeting since reappearing. He’s still 32 of 76 ITM with 8 Wins in L3T but it’s getting harder and harder to have confidence in his profile numbers.

DDs 6,8/6

4^th – Veteran turf runner Morg’s World (6), faced all $40-$32K claimers in last and is 5 of 6 ITM lifetime at 8F. Robertson hit the board on Opening Day and Kevin Gomez had two winners.

Exacta Key 6/5,7,10

5^th – In a race that’s light on commentary, Van Winkle at least has a record with 2YOs (13 & 39 with an AEPS of $3169). Lindsay gets another chance to bond with this juvy that’s shown a bit of improvement in each start and that’s drops in class again today.

Win 5

6^th – By the number’s it’s 6-3-4-5.

Ness is 34% Win with dropdowns here.

Rodriguez is 82% ITM if the top choice on the Rightback.

Arriagada is 76% ITM if the top choice when Shipping.

Torres’ Chiquirin (5) held 3^rd after beating the three 5-2 co-favorites in last.

Trifectas 3,6/3,4,5,6/4,5 (8 bets)

7^th – Breen’s Outlaw Country (6) likes to run and most likely has more in the tank after handy win last month at the Meadowlands.

Padilla has that ITM Value Rating of 3.82 and his piece ships from Kee (IV 3.08 in L10). Last was for NW of an NGS. Quinonez had two on Wednesday. Crocodile Hunter (2) was on the backside for a few months last winter. Hopefully he feels at home here at The Downs.

Storm the Court (8) fits, but Dr. No is an equal opportunity dive taker. Can’t have him be the key.

Exacta Key Box 6/2,8 and Trifectas 6/5,13/2,8

8^th – Lady Lancer (1) has made par before and has had three starts in the last 8 weeks for Sepulveda (26 & 50 at Del with this type in L5).

How many months or years can a coup be in the making? Why is RD Blessing (2) still racing? A long time ago, this 6YO bombed here four times. Has Berube made the same deal with Drake that he apparently has with Waz or Tsirigotis or the Pimentals (pobrecitos that they are)? Fillerup to fill the card?

Exacta Key 1/2,6,9

9^th – Sillaman is 33% Win & Place here with this type and Laurel Shippers are solid.

Rodriguez presents with a dilemma. He hasn’t had an L4-8 + 1OC in the last 7 years, but is 28 & 64 with L1-3 + 1OC types. I’m leaning towards no.

KOC and Dr. No hook up again, this time for owner Endsley Oaks. The trio is 0-5 with none ITM in L4T.

Trifecta Box 1,4,6,9 (24 bets)

IT’S FREE PLAY SATURDAY – Summer Festival 2023

Summer Festival – Saturday, July 1st

Yesterday, we had 3 Wins, a 2^nd and a 3^rd but came up $62.50 short on $127 in wagers. There were more people on the line at Jose’s Cantina Food Truck then at the betting windows at Tampa yesterday and the races went so fast I felt like I was at the trotters. So it goes…

I’m into Mr. Pick Four for $417.15, what’s another $104 (today’s action)?

1^st – Cottoneyed Joe (Wlaimar) Suarez had the linemakers attention in the 6^th yesterday and he popped in 3^rd lifetime start with heavy late action with an itinerant PTB and for an owner in first lifetime start. Score one for the insiders…the ML on this AE from Suarez is 3/5. Déjà vu or random lightning strike?

Chavez has a 30% ITM angle at 24-1 here, but there will be no betting coup as the 2^nd betting choice.

Trifectas 5,7/5,7/3

2^nd – If Dobber’s AE 9 gets in and takes any action, it’s live. Arnold is 63% ITM with 1PTBs at <10-1.

Linemaker makes another unlikely odds-on supposition here. Only actual odds of 6/5 will put me off my own selections.

ATB 9 (if in) otherwise, Exacta Box 6,7,8

3^rd – O’connor’s piece ships from KY after flashing speed at 6.5F in last. Bob is 14 & 50 with Shippers and 11 & 39 with Shippers.

Negrete is good for a piece but is a bad bet for win on the FBK with a 6 in 100 record.

DDs 2,7/8

4^th – Lusk’s Sociallongdistance (8) returns to the grass today. The 4YO has blown away the 100-100 par on at least four occasions in 2023, averaging 107-103 in those. The only question to be asked is how little you are willing to take for your $2. I’m generally an even money kinda guy but it ain’t happening today…

Win 8

5^th – Chavez is 41% ITM at $13.40-1 with 2TT & 3TT types. $4.00 for Show beats $2.60 for Win anytime.

$10 Show 6 and $3 Trifecta 5/3,6/3,6 ($6)

6^th – Chavez is surrogate for Ubide today, but Max is only 6% Win with Non-shipping L1-3s. Still, this 3YO from Cajun Breeze (now 24.6% Winners at Tampa) appears likely to get back on track after uncharacteristically trailing in last. Speaking of trailing, WTF happened to Remember the Tune yesterday? My biggest bet of the day broke very sharply then was summarily shuffled back to trail. Experiment on someone else’s dime, not mine damn it!

Mr. Deaton is 24 & 53 with Dropdowns but he’s had superior luck here on the lawn over the years. Nevertheless, he’s 6 for 11 ITM on the dirt in L2T and Dudesfirstdarling (6) went +3,+1 in maiden win.

Lusk has a 55% ITM angle here is 101 tries but his piece doesn’t look like much.

RD Blessing (mentioned in yesterday’s sixth writeup) bombed here at the Summer Festival 2 years ago today at 30-1 after a 63-1 miss in previous. Drake is a bona fide bomb maker who plays the long game. You never know when he’ll next strike.

McGoey’s Bella Romance (3) was par in last two here but Monica has no angle.

This is a great betting race for those with a high risk tolerance and those suffering from ADHD.

$0.50 Trifectas 2,3,4,5,6,8,(9)/6,8/2,3,4,6,7,8,(9) (50 bets)($25)

$10 Pick 3 – 6,8/6,7/3 ($40)

7^th – The 6 & 7 fit. Jones’ piece is by Florida’s Leading Sire and was par for total energy two back, while making a par final fraction in next. Herrera’s 7% Win on the lawn stat is not reassuring, but he can pop.

Cahill’s piece is often sub-par but displays interest and may be all out versus a weak field.

Saver DDs 6,7/2,5,8 if alive in the P3 to cover

8^th – Proctor has a 32 & 58 angle, the Layoff + Dropdown + DtoT and he’s 20 & 54 with 2TTs. Must get the nod.

$1 Trifecta Box 2,3,5,8 ($24)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 07/01/2023

Mea Culpa for the senior moment with my ROI calculations

in yesterday’s blog ….you know how, when you’re counting,

and you reach 100,  and start over at 1 ….well, you long

by now already have it figured it out, so, with yesterdays

finale, we can now see the real final results …..

94 days ….179 plays ….and a minus $417.15 deficit 

gives us an ROI of -$2.33 ….again, a lot of action for

two bucks a ticket ….today, we get to breathe until the

serious stuff resumes in November …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 1, 4, 7

3) 2, 4, 7

4) 4, 8

5) 4, 5

                    $18.00

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $5.00 (Little Joe Special)

4, 4, 4, 4

                    $5.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) $0.50

5) 4, 5

6) 3, 6, 8

7) 6, 7, 8

8) 3 **

                    $9.00

** Best Bet

*******

Summer Festival 2023 – June 30t

Some are only here for the Starter’s Bonus, some are only here for the Jockey’s Bonus and some of us are only here because we have nowhere else to go. An extreme UV index of 11 and a 95-degree afternoon will keep all but a few hundred Gen Y types at home today.

I got a handful of chalky types, but I guess that’s to be expected at this annual Shit Show.

1^st – HVG was Chavez’s regular boy in 22-23 and they have 4 going at the Summer Festival. HVG comes all the way from Lake Erie and a busy schedule there for 11 mounts here in two days. Surprisingly, Chavez/HVG had two FTS + FTT types at the regular meeting and both hit the board.

Manning is 3 days short of a 46 & 60 multiple angle. What’s a few days between friends. Verifiable (7) went +7,0 here in May while weakening late. Might just destroy these.

Deaton’s AE will be trouble if it gets in. Bill is 23% win in all turf tries and shortens up today (78% ITM) after two successive up-close finishes on the grass.

$10 Win 7 and $10 DD 7/1

2^nd – I happened to notice a bit of a spread between my numbers and the Bris numbers today and that could produce something worthwhile. On the day that Duke Skywalker (1) broke his maiden, Bris called the effort 1 better than today’s par while I called it +4, while on 4/29 Bris called it -12, while I had only a -5. In both races, I had him +10 and +6 early. Javier Gonzalez is a respectable 23 (2-0-5) with this type in L5T. PP1 has won 6 of last 20 on the dirt at the Summer Festival. Just sayin’.

I was digging, hoping to find some evidence that Karen Philipp might have had some luck with FBKs, but I found none. Tom (3) has been close to par here in the past.

Erlan (7) drops after horrendous start in mud. N2L is the bottom. This type often surprises (again).

$10 Win 1 and Weighted Exacta Key 1/2,3,7

3^rd – Spanabel is back in the saddle and Skyler bombed 10 times for Waz in 21-22. Hey, ya never know!

Exacta Box 2,4,6

4^th – In another case of spread dysfunction, Remember the Tune (2) was 10 better than Bris reported in Turf win. Chavez/Generazio/HVG go for it again here.

Santillana is having his two best years in the last twenty in 22-23, winning 10 of last 85. He’s 19% Win lifetime on the lawn.

$25 Win 2 and Saver Trifectas 5/2/1,4,8 to cover

5^th – Even effort at 5F improves outlook for long time bomb maker Yanez who was 40% ITM with this type of StRer at 13-1 in the past. Moises prices have slipped in 2023, more evidence that yesterday’s bomb makers are today’s chalky types.

$10 ATB 4

6^th – McGoey was 5 of 7 ITM with 2 wins with the S + Dropdown at the 22-23 meeting.

Drake bombed with RD Blessing more often than Margo takes the elevator but now he’s got one that he has to play it straight with. 77Cat (6) accounts for 20% of Drakes LT Earnings. He has no choice but to try…

$25 Weighted DDs 1,6/5 and $2 Pick 3 -1,6/All/1 ($32)

7^th – Cahill (16% Bombs in L2T) is surrogate for KOC who is10% Win with FTTs but 0-12 with FTTs in Sprints but with 5 ITM. Santos had only two mounts for KOC in 22-23, a winner and a 3^rd. How about that?

$5 ATB 5

8^th – Stewart is 20% Win on the Dropdown here and often has them ready off the long layoff (15% Win). Versus these, chances look even better. Santos is up again.

Saver Exactas 4,5,9/1 if alive in the P3 to cover

Mr. Pick 4 at Ocala Downs South for 06/30/2023

First things first …..just a quick review of the first 93 days at the

current meet …. we had 77 plays total, resulting in a loss of $385.15.

Now, that may sound like it sucks, but it boils down to $5.00 per play.

77 plays, at $10 a day is an awful lot of action for the money. I don’t

know what the TV guys ROI’s are, but I’m gonna venture a guess, and

think that it’s a much larger minus …………

Now, the ever popular Summer Festival of Racing, which ends the current

meet, and commences the ’23-’24 racing season, is on tap. I just have to

say, that it hurt, just to handicap these cards …..they have nothing on

Fairmount or Mountaineer …..can I get a big UGH !?!?

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 1, 3, 6, 7

3) 2, 3

4) 2, 4, 5, 8

5) 2, 6

                    $32.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) $0.50

5) 2, 3, 4, 6

6) 2, 7

7) 3 ** (Go Skyler)

8) 1, 4

                   $8.00

** Best Bet 

****

WEDNESAY- May 3rd

The week ending April 30th we bet $285 and collected $303.80. So it goes…

Please make your $75 payments by Saturday to save 50% off next year’s meeting. This deal will not be offered again in 2023. Thanks for your continued support and good luck to the ten Up In Class members who were invited to join us this year. I hope you will consider subscribing for 23-24.

Via Paypal tamselections@gmail.com or Venmo @John-Barile-10. If you pay by another method, you know the drill…Mr. Pick Four thanks you as well!

1^st – PP1 arrives at the last week of the meeting with an IV of 0.57 in Sprints. Bennett has the best angle but is hurt by the inside gate spot. Munoz is 2% moving UC. Henry (6) hasn’t won in two years and Waz has a 4% and a 5% angle. Fisher is 1-16 with L4-8s but his purchase has a win and two 2nds in three tries off the layoff (including an L4-8). Bobby struggled in both tries on the dirt here. Why bother trying when he loves the AW? Prepping for another campaign at PID I suspect.

Rarick has an 18% Win angle on the cusp of a FBK and Blame Bishop (2) could blame PP1 for miss in last, but Lynn is also only 5% win with Shortenups. On the other hand, 330 feet is the shortest of shortenups.

Win 2

2^nd – Bowersock is 48% ITM with FTSs in dirt sprints and has that F3W IV of 1.38 (excluding 6 of 9 ITM with 2 wins at the current meeting).

When the angle and the behavior are incongruous it creates ambivalence, but Ochoa’s Discreet Devil (7) defied his poor (28% ITM) angle by getting a piece in last two.

Exacta Box 3,6,7

3^rd – The last time Joe Hennessy had a winner (Gimmeabreak), my handicapping narratives were referring to the Upside Down every day. They were dark days indeed, but Berube & Co. exploited the opportunity to keep the cheddar coming in while we hunkered down at home and tried not to touch our faces (I really do miss touching my fingers to my tongue to separate sticky PP pages and a sponge isn’t always available). Anyway, Joe is 33 (6-1-3) lifetime with the FTS + FTT.

ATB 7

4^th – KOC is 23 & 40 with her angle and with a +24% ROI. This might be among the easiest money makers in Oldsmar and has been persistent for more than 12 years.

Bowersock’s piece went +1,+5 in last and that reliable F3W stat (see R2).

Hamm has one like Ochoa in R2 here. Tim was 2-51 with 2TSs coming into the meeting, but somehow is Win or Place in 6 of 12 with the angle this year…what to do?

DDs 7,8/5,8

Trifectas 7,8/3,6/7,8

5^th – Bennett has a 52 & 91.5 four characteristic multiple angle if the favorite in this one. PP1 has an IV of 0.57 but that’s not insurmountable.

Exacta Key Box 1/3,6 and Saver Trifectas 7,8/1/3,6 to cover

If the 1 has the bug:

$0.50 Pick 4 – 1/5,8/1,3,5/1,3,6,7,8,9,(12) (up to 42 bets) ($21)

6^th – This race could make me look brilliant or like a horse’s ass, but I call them as I see them, however, the bet size demonstrates my uncertainty.

Bennett has a UCE, 36 & 78 but both of these have a 4.5% Win angle, the RB + DtoT.

Bowersock has yet another entered. Her F3W stats appear to be the real McCoy.

$25 Weighted Exacta Box 5,8

and $2 Trifectas 5,8/2,4,6/4,5,8 (10 bets)($20)

7^th – McGoey’s profile is becoming clearer and more reliable at the end of her 4^th meeting and with several hundred starters under her skirt. Monica is 40 & 70 with No Changes now.

Bennett presents with another WEAKNESS angle: 5.8% Win with 2L9ups.

Exacta Key Box 3/1,5,9

8^th – I can pick winners but I’m not Carnac the Magnificent!

See R5

*****

April 26th

On Sunday, my big play was detonated by a $26-1 shot, Sandy Dude, who could have helped the cause if he had won, but he could only get 2^nd, killing the play altogether.

The morning after blues
From my head down to my shoes
Carefree highway
Let me slip away, slip away on you
Let me slip away on you

So it goes…

1^st – Arriagada must have been pleasantly surprised when his nickel claim from La Machine Jr. went six better than today’s par on March 19^th. The mare moved up in class and was soundly beaten, but hell, Thunder Buggy won four in a row and Alizee is now 9 of 14 Win and Place in 22-23. Juan is 23 & 62 with Plain CCs and Meneses has been solid recently. Gets a piece.

Machado had a 7% Win record with RBs and won. Same angle today…

Granitz has a 2.22 IV for Win in F3W but is only par for ITM. Tony’s got three nice singles for ITM here, but none for Win. It’s a gamble, pure and simple.

It’s a good betting race, but ya can’t play them all…

Win 3

2^nd – Ochoa has a 1.4 IV in F3W and is 21 & 67 with UCEs, but both runners have the NC going, 8% Win (but that is par, isn’t it?). Gerard has 4 wins with Arroyo and none with Jimenez, providing a small clue.

Win 1

3^rd – La Machine is 45 of 90 Win or PL with this angle.

Catching Fish (3) changed hands and that’s usually not a good sign for a PTB.

Jackson has historically been 89% ITM if the top choice in this scenario, but he hasn’t done much lately.

OK, I’ll bite:

Conditional $100 Win 2 for the ML of 2-1

And Saver Exacta 5/2,4 to cover if 5 is the favorite

4^th – KOC/Gallardo is always a bad bet. I’m not saying they don’t win, they are just a bad bet (28% when the fav, 10% when not).

KOC has two going and that’s a 31 & 69 angle for her. Gratia Prince (6) went +6,+3 in last and Kathy is par with Plain Stretchouts.

Scratch of MTOs reduces it to 7 (without the 6), Dobber is Ofer with RBs and Hamm is only 5% with 2TTs, reducing it further to 5. Presuming KOCs other half is out for exercise, there are only 4 remaining.

Win 6

5^th – O’Connor has only gone to Centeno 83 times in the last 8 years or about 18% of all starts but they are 53% ITM at average odds of $6-1. O’Connor is the best of the F3Ws with an IV of 3.33 for Win. Cox Canyon (5) went -2,+7 for the Bail Bond Queen of Miami in last. I like this son of Ghostzapper, 13% Win here in Oldsmar.

La Machine Jr. is 63% Win and Pl with his angle and doubles his pleasure with Doublemint gum in this one.

Exacta Key Box 5/4,6 and Trifectas 5,6/All/5,6 (12 bets)

6^th – Wow Wish (1) comes to the dance without needing Clearasil (at least not yet anyway). Looks like the other boys have been living on a diet of potato chips, french fries and greasy doughnuts. May I have this dance? Why sure (hubba hubba)!

Win 1

7^th – Paco Lopez makes an appearance for Kelly Breen. This piddly $29K purse has me raising my eyebrows at the notion of bringing in the big gun, but I suspect Mr. Bowers Jr., now 1-23 lifetime is getting tired of only writing checks and not cashing them.

Mr. Bennett has a UCE and the 2 has just an 11.7% Win angle, while the 4 has a 25% Win angle on the Rightback.

Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/3,6,7/1,4 (6 bets)

8^th – By the numbers, it looks like 1,4 & 6 with a slight advantage to Granitz with the 2.22 IV in F3W.

Exacta Box 1,4,6

****

Wednesday, April 19^th, 2023

It was 41 years ago today I joined the Police Department in NY. That morning, I remember thinking, wait, you want me to pay 3% of my salary for 25 years in order to get a pension? It sounded like a ripoff to this twenty-something. It wasn’t. I’ll be retired 16 years on the 4^th of July. One of the smartest long game bets I’ve ever made…

1^st – Today, we break out the Final Three Weeks stats, highlighting those conditioners that have a consistent record of getting it done (and outperforming their own numbers) while most of the others are preparing to take their caravans to the four winds.

Ochoa has an IV of 1.8 in F3W and is 16 & 33 with Plain FBKs. Sharp work followed by poor effort gives me a hint. How about you?

SCRATCHED

$10 ATB 3

Now Win 4

2^nd – Odds on went from Non-starter to the Winner’s Circle in one swing of the bat and with a +9,-1 effort. Arriagada is 26 & 47 with RBs and 36 & 70 with RtSs. Juan has missed the board only once when the favorite since Jan. 8^th and has 14 wins in 21 tries since then when the top choice.

Win 6

3^rd – Parisian Vibe (7) chased $54K purse down south in last and tries the lawn today. Intentions look right but the filly may not go so well on the grass.

I’m Nervous Now (3) about betting Dini (thanks Kevin), but he’s 60% ITM with this angle.

Three Coins (9) comes off the shelf, but I think for another, future race where the money is better. Galvan is 6% win with L4-8s.

Ochoa makes another appearance (see R1). Gerard is 44% ITM with RBs at 10-1 odds in L4T. Could get a piece.

Cotton Eyed Jo Paragallo has gotten off to a great start after long stint as exercise rider to the stars at the Spa. Mylastredcent (1) was par in last two. This gal is out to make it.

Trifectas All/1,3,6/8 (21 bets)

4^th – La Machine Jr is 62% W & Pl with this type.

McGoey is 31% Win with this angle in 45 tries in L2T.

$50 Weighted DDs 2,9/7

5^th – Walsh drops for first win with daughter of Medaglia D’Oro. Among Turf Sires with a similar number of runners, MD is in the top 10 of all time. Walsh has an EPS of $11K, 4X that of our locals.

$20 DD 7/8

6^th – Orseno is 33% W & Pl with this type here in Oldsmar and Cajun Breeze has a 20+% strike rate here. Last two went better than the rest of these.

True to her genealogical roots, Laveau is named for the famed the famous Voodoo practitioner Marie Catherine Laveau (and should get some action from those tarmac folks Kevin was speaking of recently).

If that aint enough for you:

The numerical value of Laveau in Pythagorean Numerology is: 8

$10 DD 8/8

$5 Saver Pick 4 – 8/8/2,8,10/9 ($15)

$2 Saver Pick 4 – 8/8/2,8,10/4,6 ($12)

7^th – Street Glide (8) is by leading Florida Sire Jess’ Dream and the 4YO went +10,+2 in last and Centeno is 23 & 45 in April.

$50 Weighted DDs 8/3,6,7

8^th – If favoritism is to Blame Bishop (2), Rarick is 86% ITM but she has no angle.

See R6 & 7

9^th – If you get sick, you often may need to see a specialist. Tracy Ann (9) is a turf dash specialist. PP9 is a handicap with its 0.58 IV but a few of these may bail before post time and inside of PP9 its all good and the 5 just scratched setting things up.

Trifectas 4,6,9/7,8/4,6,9 (12 bets)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/19/2023

All around, on Wednesday, but no cashers …the only saving

grace was a R 7 Tri to the tune of $200, which paid for a

fairly decent dinner …still no beer for this guy, as the

meds prescribed are pretty strong …. after today, I do

believe we’re down to 10 race dates left ….the backside

is emptying like a water trough in July …. Monmouth and

Delaware are right around the corner… ahhh summer!!

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 2, 4, 5, 6

3) 6, 9

4) 2, 3, 5, 9

5) 7 *$*

                   $16.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 2, 7, 8, 11

7) 3, 8

8) 3, 4

9) 1, 9

                   $16.00

*$* … Best Bet

****

April 12th

Today is the last day to take advantage of our current new subscriber deal: the remainder of the meeting and 23-24 for $75. Email me at tamselections@gmail.com for further details.

Wednesday, April 12^th, 2023

On days when…

1. There are six bombs
2. PP1 wins twice on the dirt
3. Wasiluk has a Win and a 2^nd
4. No misses three times (once at odds on and twice at 3 to 2)
5. An “S” type wins from 8 BL at the 2^nd Call on the dirt
6. And Rowland wins on the Turf

…you can pretty much abandon all hopes of not losing your shirt. What a shitshow Saturday was. So it goes…

1^st – Monarch is still looking for that elusive 2^nd win. Rigattieri is 21 & 52 with PTBs and Nicolino (7) went two better than par in last.

I suspect it was Hunt that wasn’t feeling it at 3.30-1 and not The Money Machine (4). Hunt’s average ITM odds is > 10-1 here for the past decade.

Conditional $25 Win 7 for even money

 and Trifectas 7/4,6,9/1,4,6,9 (9 bets)

2^nd – Pass

3^rd – On the day that I’m ready to make my debut as a trainer, I’m gonna want it to be with a winner too. Hats off to Ricky N. Davis for paying the bills and now wanting the credit.

Weighted DDs 1,7,8/5

4^th – Gerard (5) has a 25 & 67 angle for Arnett. Adios Charlie sired 16.6% winners here coming into this meeting, but had only one this year, a good one, One Tough Dame, who won handily for Bennett on April 1^st. Camacho has 13 Winners in the past two weeks.

$25 Conditional Win 5 for 8/5

and $15 DD 5/6

5^th – Arriagada is 33 & 57 with his angle and must key the play on the dropdown (30 & 59).

Saver Exactas if alive in the DD 1,4/6 to cover the Will Pay

6^th – Bowersock could have a couple of firsts if favored here. Maria’s 90% ITM with the RB + Favorite and 80% ITM with the No Change + Favorite. Neither scenario has occurred yet at this meeting.

Bernardo Lopez is 35% Win and Place with his angle.

Sacco is 20 & 47 with his angle.

If 1 is the top choice, then Exacta Key Box 1/3,4,7, otherwise

Trifecta Box 1,3,4,7

$0.50 Pick 4 – 1,3,4,7/1,2,7/2/4,5,7,8 (48 bets) ($24)

7^th – Dini 2.0 is 88% ITM with the 2L4-8 + 2S. Hey, Jesus (that’s Gee Zuz, not Hey Soose) was 30 years old when he performed his first miracle.

Exacta Key Box 7/1,2 and Saver Trifectas 1,2,7/5,6/1,2,7 (12 bets)

Saver DDs 1,2,7/6 to cover if alive after Leg 1

8^th – Delgado is 23 & 55 with his angle and Bustin Up (2) has been the fastest at time early, and then also the fastest at times late.

Guciardo is now 26 of 51 ITM at 10-1 with Plain Stretchouts. A better bomb angle would be hard to find.

$5 Trifectas 2,6/3,4,8/2,6 (6 bets)($30)

9^th – Trifecta Box 4,5,7,8

****

April 5th

On Sunday, I referred to Darien Rodriguez as a “Bridge Jumpers dream” in the scenario that presented itself in race 6, and when a huge opportunity came along, I did what any smart bridge jumper would do…find a way to make money on that meager ITM return that was almost certain to happen. I did…for an almost $1500 profit. These kinds of chances to score are so rare there is nothing to do but go all in. With $3500 profit now, this season is in the bag. So it goes…

1^st – In 17 starts, Ready To Film (4) never found himself 6 BL at the 2^nd call. Lexander Sanchez is sacked for Meneses. Gutierrez is 19 & 40 off the claim.

Exacta Key Box 4/3,5

2^nd – Juddmonte has an EPS of $36K and Mott has 23% Win singles all around. Dr. No dreams of a mount that will pay him $100K for two minutes of work and thus plays it straight.

Win 2

3^rd – I have a terrible memory and that’s one of the reasons I don’t refer to horses by their names (their names are actually irrelevant in the genetic continuum of things), but one look at Harrow’s (5) PPs and it’s clear that the 5YO has been facing the best on the grounds all winter. For crying out loud, Drama Chorus won the Turf Classic last weekend (and we had that one too). Hamm is 22 & 48 with UCEs and the other has a 7% angle, the DtoT.

ATB 5

DD 5/All (6 bets)

4^th – You may recall that I put That’s My Boi Toy (an N3L) on top after it made the same Quirins as Chicks Dig Scars on March 17^th.  Boi Toy won again with the same number, 98. Today’s par is 102. Idk what to do with this as the 1,2 & 6 are out of the same race.

Ubide has a 24% Win angle but Laiz hasn’t had a mount is 27 months.

Poole’s piece has solid Quirins, but he has an 0-37 angle.

Old man Bush up for George Bush on a runner moving up 3 or 4 classes?

Pick your poison or All or Pass

5^th – The All button exists for races like this.

Saver Pick 3 – All/8/4,7,9 (30 bets)

6^th – Indian Buzz (8) was claimed back at a premium by the father/daughter Nobles team. I’ve spoken to her a couple of times about this gelding and they really do love him. Buzz nosed out South Sea on Jan 28^th and that one won last week with a +2 better than par number. Buzz’s start on Feb. 18^th is inexplicable. A couple of bombs ran 1,2 with sub-par Quirins and Ghost Stalker (#7) was one of them.

Six of 13 claimed from Bowersock have won, but those 13 raced 67 times to get those 6 wins.

Posadas’ Hard Lighting (5) is sub-par but consistent.

Exacta Key Box 8/2,5,7

DDs 2,5,7,8/8

7^th – Morici is 25% Win with her angle and this daughter of Quality Road (20% Win at the meeting) could wake up on the dropdown today.

Value Trainer Granitz has a 19 & 48 multiple angle and Ligeia (8) went +3,+9 on a day with No Variant that was preceded by -1 and +3 Variants (also with the PR at 0).

Wasser is 0-16 on the lawn and Posadas is only 2-32 on the grass.

Yanez has bomb angles here.

Trifecta Box 4,7,8,9

8^th – Bennett has a sub-par 14% Win angle here but with 50% ITM in 118 tries, while Bowersock similarly has a 54% ITM angle in 54 tries.

One can only take a stab at this and hope for the best.

The Hard Way: Trifectas All/8/7 (8 bets) and Supers All/8/2/7 (7 bets)

9^th – Smith has a quirky 29 & 57 angle: L4-8 + S + 1PTB. My wingman, MC Hammer would say: “Caint touch this!”

Win 1

****

March 29th

You can still subscribe for the remainder of the meeting for just $40 and get 50% off for the 23-24 meeting. Email: tamselections@gmail.com

PP1 continues its reign of terror, now 1-65 recently. On Sunday, it devoured Darien Rodriguez’s Ultimate Irony at 6/5 and then Casse’s Invisible War at even money. Ortiz Jr.’s mount was shaking like an unbalanced washing machine by the time it reached the stretch. So it goes…

1^st – I’m looking for a blanket finish in this race. Arriagada is 77% ITM with the Layoff + 1OC, Machado is now 32 & 75 with UCEs. La Machine Jr., Feliciano and Bowersock were par recently.

If you don’t like the All button, La Machine Jr., is 64% Win & Place with his angle and Batista is 25% Win in the last two weeks.

Pick 3 – All/3,5/4 (12 bets)

Pick 3 – 3/All/4 (12 bets)

2^nd – I stopped counting awhile ago, but with all the focus on PP1, we can’t overlook that the front running/pace pressing types continue to rule the roost. A win from > 1.5 BL at the 2^nd Call is a rarity on the dirt.

$3 Saver Pick 3 – 3,5,6/5,6/2,4,6 (18 bets)($54)

3^rd – Windylea has an EPS of $8500 these days and Reasonably Lovely went +6,-2 in last, despite appearances. Camacho is 4 for 6 ITM for Windylea with two wins and two minor checks. KOC is 54% ITM with her angle.

Dini is 29 & 67 with FTSs but Rowland’s last win for Dini was on Dec. 16^th. Mike is 23% Win with an EPS of $4500 with his own runners recently. Is this a “miracles happen” race? Look at those works….ugh

Lopez comes back fast, but I stopped counting at 1 for 20 with that angle in 22-23.

Conditional $75 ATB 4 if alive after R2

4^th – Arriagada outperforms with all 4 singles and Express Pharoah (2) went -5,+2 in last. Again, I add that Batista is 25% Win these past two weeks.

Kintz is the wildcard here. The four runners that have come back have all been soundly beaten, but Golovkin (4) was close to par twice with Guciardo. Is Kintz as observant as us gamblers, or is he just dropping for the win and getting out or is he looking Starter 5 status? I’m guessing something’s amiss…

Win 2 and Saver Exactas 4,6/2

5^th – Clement is 52 & 71 with his angle. Dini has been bombing with FTTs.

Team D is > 50% ITM Lifetime with an EPS of $12,300. Their first two have gone down in flames, but there’s a buzzing inside my head. It’s echoes of Cotton Eyed Joe ringing in my ears.

Pick 5 – 5,6/4,5,6,7/5,7,8/4,7,9/3 (72 bets)  Saver Exactas 3,6/5 to cover

6^th – Carrasco has no angle here, but does About Today (6) need one? I’m taking something off for switch from injured Morales. Arroyo is 1 for last 20 Win.

Pick 4 – 4,5,6,7/5,7,8/4,7,9/10 (36 bets)

7^th – Rigattieri is 22 & 59 with PTBs and I Like Boston (5) was close to par in last. Hardesty is 25% Win with her angle. Mr. Bennett is always a threat with FTSs entered for a tag.

Exacta Box 5,7,8 Trifectas 5,7,8/3,4/5,7,8 (12 bets)

8^th – It seems to me that trending results, for whatever reason, tend to be indicative of future performance(s). Hamm was 13% win with Long Layoffs coming into the meeting, but he’s now 0-14 this year. Upon further reflection however, one win would make him par again.

Exacta Box 4,7,9

9^th – Negrete is 37% ITM with Plain Stretchouts at $13-1 (including one with this mutt.

Exactas 3,10/8 and Trifectas All/3,10/8 (18 bets)

******

March 22nd –

We bounced nicely on Saturday ($960), with a couple of subscribers cashing for four figures on Calle de Boyd. On Sunday, our two singles clicked in the Pick 4, but a big bomb helped put an end to it.

So it goes…

1^st – Bennett’s Awesome Prince (5) went +4,+2 but missed and was claimed, a nice scenario for Arriagada to inherit.

Win 5

Pick 3 – 5/2,6/3

2^nd – Similarly, Child Proof (4) was claimed but after breaking maiden by a nose with a +7,0. That scenario favors Belmar Summer (6), who was also claimed but already has three wins. Unfortunately, Rigattieri has his weakest distance change angle going, <15% Win with Stretchouts and Morales is on the DL after freak accident nearly cost him his pinky finger last week.

Dini is 52% ITM with the TtoD + RtS move and Rowland is 3 of last 5 ITM on the dirt. On the other hand, Summer Nitro (5) won with a 74, while today’s par is 91.

Machado is 1-29 with TtoDs and that leaves us with…

Da Journey Girl (2) going the same distance as last and after a +7,-2 effort in that one and with a 53% ITM angle for Minguet. The filly did not feel the stick until the 1/8^th pole and then widened the gap after being asked.

ATB 2 and Exacta Box 2,6

3^rd – Casse is the obvious one to beat. TL was above par at 8.5F then allegedly made par at 10F. The son of Top Turf Sire Kitten’s Joy will get it done soon.

Brown does not go to Gallardo, so I figure it’s a cinch or dead last. Chad is 38 & 75 with the L1-3+S+Dropdown and 50 & 90 with 3TSs.

Delacour has that deadly new angle, the Non-shipping L1-3+ 48 & 83.

Saver Trifecta 1,2,5,6/3/1,2,5,6 to cover (12 bets) if alive in the P3

4^th – These OC75 N1Xs have historically gone to the N1X types with an IV of 1.29 for over a decade, giving a leg up to numbers 3-6.

Hamm has a UCE (23 & 45) and Reinvest (3) looks like the one to me, but Hamm will have to find a rider today also and Batista, who I would have preferred is already engaged here. Quality Road, already the Leading Sire in Oldsmar in the modern era, has 21% Winners at this meeting.

Suerte, made the best Quirin in the field, a -2,+3 in last and Harty is above par with L1-3s + RBs.

Arriagada has a much better record with StRs than Hamm, but Hamm’s piece has a %E that is much closer to the desired 51.28% here (52.22% vs. 53.00%).

Exacta Key Box 4/1,3

5^th – Kintz must also shop around for a replacement rider, but Investment Income (7) gotta be all out on the big dropdown.

Terranova has been there all season and he has bombed twice with Ferrer up (this filly actually). Roundabout (3) has the Plain Dropdown 28 & 60 and the Plain Shortenup 34 & 68 going for her.

Nagle has had all her luck with Camacho up (27% Win in 52 tries) but Samy has the day off. Again Dr. No leaves us guessing…

Exacta Box 3,6,7

6^th – Raven is 24% Win with her angle and Jess’s Dream has 15% Winners at the meeting.

Arriagada’s Let’s Be Honest (2) went 4 better than Raven’s piece in last.

Arnett has a UCE, now 22 & 62 and Alizee (7) has a 27 & 77 angle.

Bennett is only 11% Win if not the top choice in this situation.

If the 5 is not the favorite, then

Exacta Box 1,2,7 and Saver Trifectas 1,2,7/5,6/1,2,7 (6 bets)

Pick 3 1,2,7/3,8/2,5,10 (18 bets)

7^th – Power owners Madaket, Dubb+ and Ilium aren’t here to see the alligator in the pond.

Ran Jan has only one winner in 17 tries since 2016. Back to back? I don’t think so…

See R6

8^th – Gooch has that 53% ITM angle at $9-1 odds again today. Failed last time when I went off it because I didn’t like the price. The $9-1 odds is as much a part of the angle as the 53%. Maybe I wasn’t clear on that point in earlier posts.

Pivotal Run (5) went +20,+4 three back and must be considered a continuing threat.

Fast Payday (10) also has a 60% ITM (18-30): the Non-shipping 2L1-3 and 49% ITM with the Shortenup.

Saver Trifectas All/2,5,10/2,5,10 (48 bets) if alive in the P3

******

Wednesday, March 15th, 2023

Sunday was messy. It got off on the right foot when Colors won the opener and then went downhill from there. Arnett  missed by a neck at 2-5 after missing the break, we had the DD in Rs 3& 4, if you found my typos, Dr. No had another long one, this time to make KOC the winningest woman in history (and lend legitimacy to himself just long enough to have his picture taken), then in the 6^th, another typo race, the mistake paid $38.80 in a dash that went sub-21 and 43.53 early and ended with a +5. Who says ignorance isn’t bliss? The rest of the day was more of the same, with the Brown UCE finishing up the track in the nitecap.

Take out the papers and the trash, or you don’t get no spending cash,    Get all that garbage out of sight, or you don’t go out Friday night…

Yakety yak, so it goes…

I’m calling this What if Wednesday! A sliding doors style compendium of possible outcomes, each free from the necessity for the other to be correct! May the pot o’ gold promised on Friday, arrive early for your Cat-Lick, Turf Cutting faithful Irish Johnny McBarile!

 1^st – Arriagada is 78% ITM in 71 tries when the favorite on the DC and is 10-17 win with the same angle at this meeting.

Sanchez’s piece was ITM in 9 of last 12 and he has a $5K EPS, significantly higher than our locals.

In an effort to find some value here:

$50 Weighted DDs 4/All and Win 7 to cover

2^nd – All button looks right. Sanchez has another?!?! La Machine Jr. is 16 & 44 with FTSs, Machado has three bomb angles going for his recent acquisition, KOC is 26 & 42 with FTSs, Hamm has a UCE, 24% Win and Falk was par in last, while he’s also 5-9 ITM with 2TSs with 3 wins recently.

$50 Weighted DDs All/2

3^rd – Might the smart money possibly go to Dominguez with switch to Camacho today? He hasn’t missed the board when the top choice on the Stretchout in 12 years.

Win 6 to cover

$50 Weighted DDs 2,6/2,8

4^th – Monarch was 5 for 12 Win last season and looks to get off the schneid (0-9) with My Man Vito (6) here. Vito was par in last and Rigattieri is 30 & 70 with Non-shipping Dropdowns, while Morales, 10 of last 25 Win and Place is up. Davidic Line, 3^rd in Vito’s last won with a +20,+2 on March 10^th.

Win 6 to cover

$50 Weighted DDs 2,6,8/1,5

5^th – There’s usually a period of adjustment when horses find themselves in new homes that they didn’t ask for, kinda like being the uncooperative party in an arranged marriage. You can imagine how that must go….

With six of these experiencing this unwanted upheaval recently, it seems to me that they may still be in that let’s get to know each other period of the arranged marriage honeymoon…

In any case, Torres is 35% Win and Place with his angle and Feliciano is 33% Win with Plain FBKs.

$0.50 Pick 5 – 1,5/1,2,3,7,8/7,9/11/2,4,5 (60 bets)($30)

6^th – I got nothin’ here.

See R 5

7^th – The hard way:

$10 Trifecta 7/9/5 and $10 Superfecta 7/9/1/5

$75 Weighted DDs 7,9/6,9,10,11

8^th – Ubide has a 24 & 55 angle here, the FBK + Dropdown and HVG is > 50% ITM in L2W. PP11 hurts, but will 11 actually go?

$25 Place and Show 11

$50 Weighted DDs 6,9,10/4,5

9^th – Five firsters and three Value Conditioners create a myriad of possibilities…

Motion throws a screwball at us….he’s 0-27 with FTSs but 29 & 56 with UCEs. OK, I’m at a loss for words…

Trifectas 1,2/1,2,4,5/3,4,5,7,10 (26 bets) if alive in the DD

*****

1^st – In a race devoid of angles, Wicked Saucy (2) went +3,+2 in last.

Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/All

2^nd – Gatis makes another claim in hopes of getting to the circle. He’s 28 & 60 with this type historically. Meneses has been better than 50% ITM recently.

Arriagada moves Odds On way up in class following -12,-6 win.

Exacta Key Box 5/1,2,3

3^rd – Survey says Arriagada tried the 1OC + StR four times in the past 7 years and was ITM four times with one win.

Machado is 33 & 80 with UCEs.

If McGoey is < 5-1 at post time all bets are off (78% ITM angle).

Exacta Key Box 1/4,6 and Saver Trifectas 1,4,6/2,5/1,4,6 (12 bets)

4^th – Value trainer Jesus Cruz (valued mostly for price) has a 33% ITM angle here.

Potts has a 13 & 52 angle here and five Plain DC bombs in the past couple of years.

Machado has 20 tries lifetime with the FTS + FTT and has only had any luck here in Oldsmar with the angle where he’s 10 (2-1-0).

Exacta Box 4,5,8

5^th – How many of these actually fit in a Starter 25?

King Ramos (3) is still ascending and was par in last. KOC goes to Castanon 12 (2-2-1) since returning.

Dini 2.0 is 24% Win with Plain UC types in L3T and he has had 3 Wins with Bastardo up in 8 tries.

Bennett has a 36 & 79 UCE, but he’s always been soft with the DtoT move (10%). On the other hand, Harpoon Harry (6) has faced Obiwan in last two and Obi was soundly beaten in last, thus the presumption that Obi was beaten by better. Looks like a better spot today for Harry and Ferrer did have two turf wins in the past week.

$5 Pick 3 – 3,5,6/3,7/7,8 (12 bets) ($60)

Saver Tri Box 1,3,6,7 (in case Dr. No has other plans)

6^th – La Machine Jr. has a UCE and a review of his last 25 tries here and down south reveals that he’s 25 & 67 with them with 25% both ITM. Combine that with that amazing 63% Win & Place angle (for both) and you’ve got yourself something good.

Arnett claimed Liking It Twisted (6) in last and must have been disappointed when she graduated to open company that day. Skips 5 levels today for the C10. Looks like an overreach with a class gap of +4,+4.

On days when you feel like you have a “That Was Easy” button, that’s when you usually have to worry, nevertheless, sometimes things do go as expected.

That was easy Pick 4:

$0.50 3,7/7,8/1,2,3,6/4,5,8 (48 bets)($24)

$120 Weighted DDs 3,7/7

$60 Weighted DDs 3,7/8

$40 Weighted DDs 3,7/6

$20 Weighted DDs 3,7/1

7^th – Mr. Bennett is 1-23 with the RB + FBK. Rountree’s been missing for four months and is only 5% win in L3. O’Connor is 1-13 with FTTs, while Bowersock is 1-47. Kintz skips the N2L?

Hemingway has one for owners Holly Hill ($11K EPS). Last went +4,+5 and Michelle has par singles. Dr. No dampens enthusiasm some.

Asters D’oro (7) was there in the same race as Hemingway’s piece on January 25^th, then was beaten by Motion and Albertrani. Clay’s Moonstone (5 Wins) was 3^rd.

See R6

8^th – Bennett’s Pretty’n Awesome (6) ships back after up close finish in OC with three 35K claimers in there and for a $39K purse. Gerry’s 20 & 55 with StRs.

Casse has a BET AGAINST – 1 for 18 with the L1-3 + 2S

Exacta Key Box 6/1,2,3 and Saver Tris 1,2,3,6/7/1,2,3,6 (12 bets)

9^th – The 4 & 5 both have > 50% ITM angles but KOC is also 23% Win with No Changes while Dini is 3 for 5 Win with 2TTs at the meeting.

4,5,8

Trifectas 1-5,8-10/4/All (56 bets)

*****

Wednesday, March 1st, 2023

On Sunday, Barak, the 2 to 5 favorite loses with an 0-31 angle and you’re still not sure if my MATPs are for real? So it goes…

1^st – La Machine has a UCE both with a 59% Win and Place angle while Cruz has an 47% Win and Place angle. Marin has been lighting up the board recently.

Sacco was par in last on FAST surface and has Camacho .

Rigattieri is 94% ITM if favored here but that doesn’t appear likely.

Pass

2^nd – Drama Chorus (7) was above par for T/E in last and was par in previous. Fits best among these, most of whom are N4Ls (regardless of how they are entered).

Wright has a UCE and the only angle in the race with Perfect Speighty (2), the Plain UC + Stretchout 65% ITM.

Casse has a BET AGAINST: 1-30 with DtoTs, only 4 ITM.

Exacta Key Box 7/2,5

3^rd – Sweezey, with an 0-13 FTS record, catches my attention. Portage (5) is by the nations Leading Sire for Earnings in 2023, Tonalist, with $4.2 Mil and has an Owner with an $8300 EPS and Camacho is up. This trail of crumbs might lead to something good.

ATB 5

4^th – Hamm can always strike with a firster (13 & 43). KOC and Dr. No deserve to be considered on the drop to the bottom. This Bennett runner gives us no reason to like and yet Gerry is 25 & 55 with RtSs and 68% ITM with the Plain FBK + TtoD.

Exacta Box 1,2,7

5^th – I’ll let the Quirins do the talking in this one.

Exacta Box 2,5,8

I can scramble some eggs as good as the next guy…

I think I like one of these, but I invite you to choose one for yourself…

Pick 4 – 2,5,8/3,5/All/6,8 (120 bets) or

Pick 4 – 2,5,8/1-7/6,7/6,8 (84 bets) or

Pick 4 – 2,5,8/3,5/6,7/4,5,6,8,10 (60 bets)

6^th – I’m getting dizzy trying to compare these efforts, but Alizee (5) has consistently put up the best numbers in the field. Arnett is 20 & 52 with his angle.

Murumbi is introduced into the mix against these runners that have taken turns beating each other and Bennett has a 26 & 58 angle.

Trifectas 1-7/3,5/All (60 bets)

7^th – A horrible race to try to handicap, but using Uncle Vinny’s who beat who method, Mathes’ Brienne of Tarth (6) made above par EP while beaten by Lizqueenfleurdelis, who we put our confidence in and were not disappointed by a couple of times and by Ligeia, who won on Friday with a par number. Ditto for the 1 & 3 as to the previous competition.

ATB 6

8^th – Trifectas 6,8/4,5,10/6,8

****

On Superbowl Sunday we had a lot of action in races 6,7,8 & 9 and I enjoyed knowing that we would cash one way or another, but we lost $23 when my $1 composite Pick 4 returned only $92.30 after we bet $115.50.

We also note that the Suncoast Stakes went in -6,-4, the only way that Bennett could have bombed. It seems that PP1 still has just enough toxin left in it to upset the apple cart (at least now and then). So it goes…

1^st –  Arriagada is 45 & 76 if the favorite on the distance change and he’s 27 & 67 with StRs. Last two were above par.

Granitz hasn’t tried the 1OC + StR in 4 years, but with 1OCs the control was in another’s hands in last. Winter’s Ghost (3) was par two back at 8.5F. Rules were made to be broken. I like this one from Value Conditioner Tony Granitz.

Ubide tries this 43% ITM angle for the first time here. Beer (5) was ITM in 3 of 5 with the other two 4^th going two turns on the dirt.

Exacta 4/3 and Trifecta 4/5/3

DD 4/6

2^nd – Both the 5 & 6 only ran out of gas in inside the final furlong of a 7F race in last and elect to try this dash today.  Rivelli has had some luck over the years here, while Gutierrez has had none. Owner Carolyn Wilson is 25% Win in the pandemic era with a $6500 EPS. Morales is 23 & 69 in the past two weeks.

Potts’ piece went +12,+4 two back, then got the smackdown in an “Or” race that was more N1X than N2L. Dr. No may take a dive or he may not. Lately, he’s been earning the old fashioned way.

If alive in the DD, then Saver Exacta 1/6

3^rd – Ochoa is only 2-19 ITM with DtoTs. Toss. Dixon is 2% Lifetime on the grass , Toss. I won’t bet Allen Jr. going 8.5F anymore, but you knew that. Toss. Rowland’s last win for Dini was Dec. 16^th and her last win was Jan. 27^th. Toss. Potts is 0-22 with 3TTs. Toss. Carrasco Jr.’s piece finished 42 back in two tries off the claim. Toss. Gatis is sandwiched between the above and he has little luck with this type. Toss.

DDs 9,10/6,8

4^th – Money Song (8) was 2^nd to Risk Vs Reward (see R1) in last and the latter went 101-100 in next start (+5,+6 better than today’s par).

Duke Skywalker (6) went +10,+5 in runaway maiden win, then was beaten by three N2Ls in an “Or” that went +4,+6. Duke finished with a 102-90 in that one and today’s par is 95-94.

DDs 6,8/6.9

If alive in the DD, then Saver Trifectas 1,2,3,7/6,8/1,2,3,6,7,8 (32 bets)

5^th – Delacour has a new angle, L1-3+. He’s 46 & 81 with it in 37 tries recently.

Beckman is 20 & 36 on the grass and Dark and Fitzy (6) was two better than par in turf debut.

DDs 6,9/2,6,7

If alive in the DD, then Saver Trifectas 1,2,7,8/6,9/1,2,6,7,8,9 (32 bets)

6^th – Bennett has a nice BET AGAINST here. Gerry is 0-22 with the RB + FBK.

2,6,7/8

7^th – If the top choice in this spot, Rodriguez is 48% Win in 56 tries.

Pivotal Run (8) has been trying to get into a race since December with no luck, then exploded with a +20,+4 in first start. KOC is 52% ITM with her angle.

I’m not Joe Brains or anything, but Downing is 8 for 8 ITM in Turf Routes in L5T.

If alive in the DD, then Saver Trifectas 1,5,6,7/8/1,5,6,7 (12 bets)

8^th – Arnett is only 15% Win with UCEs, but both of these have the same angle: 38 & 69.

Exacta Key Box 6/1,2,7

9^th – Blue Neith (2) didn’t lose last three, Dr. No lost those races. Bastardo owes his employer one. OR NOT!

Win 2 and Saver Trifecta Box 3,4,5,7

*****

Wed, Feb. 8th, 2023

Today, we have what I like to call “a day of firsts”. We are about halfway through the meeting and yet, today we have eight trainers with solid multiple angles going to those angles for the first time at the meeting in seven different races today. Now, nobody else (to my knowledge) is MATPing, so it’s kind of a stretch to presume there will be more value associated with these “first try at the meeting” angles, however, there are resources like Statsmaster and Equibase, that can simulate what I’m doing (at least for a handful of angles) and I’m sure there are several premium priced others out there that can get close to what I’m doing. Additionally, the sub-conscious is inclined to toss things it hasn’t seen before even if we are not aware of it. So, I stand firm in my belief that on a day of firsts, there will be value!

1^st – Both Delgado and Feliciano have firsts with the No Change going here but while Feliciano had been 13% here in L3T, he’s 4-11 win this year (36%) and 28% Win in 22-23. If a rising tide floats all boats, his historical 18 & 42 with No Changes may be an underperforming angle at this moment in time or it may get a boost from his stellar performances recently. Jose H., while 23% Win in L3T is only 9% win at this meeting, so his 17 & 42 with No Changes may indicate a weakness angle if it follows his present trend line.

Ochoa is 33% ITM in 15 tries with the No Change at 44-1 odds and Jimenez is 53% ITM in the past two weeks. Scratch

Richards is 8 (2-0-2) here with his angle and takes a big drop in class. Conventional capping says that a horse with 8 of 14 ITM lifetime should be trying on the dropdown and 3 panel work recently indicates no allergic reaction to the loam.

Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifecta 3/5/4

2^nd – 65% of all runners claimed from Bennett don’t win in their first three tries and Amado is 1-16 here with his angle.

Arnett appears to be scratching his head over Liz a Bee (2) and he’s only 16% Win with TtoD types.

Mizzen Air (3), an APD at 8,5F last year, has two sub-par wins at the meeting but today will test the old mare’s mettle. Juan is 44% Win if the top choice in this scenario.

Dancin’ Dee (4) was outgunned in last but an N1X looks like a better spot for this one than an open 10K. Perhaps Potts is not that impressed with his claim. Both of Dee’s Tampa wins were sub-par too.

Machado is 33 & 80 with UCEs and Camacho (on the 5) is 20 & 48 in L2 weeks. Also sub-par in last two by my accounting.

All three had wings with no jet engine, but the young turks are eager to replace the old guard.

Arriagada is 21 & 46 with the RB + UC and Batista has been hot with 50% ITM in L2W and that creates the tipping point for me.

If 3 is the favorite, then Exacta Key Box 3/4,5. otherwise

ATB 5

3^rd – Speaking of the young turks, a couple of 2^nd Crop Leading Turf Sires are represented here.

Royal Dame (2) is by Bolt D’Oro (#3) and La Tache (8) is by Good Samaritan (#9).

Both of these were above par in last and go to the grass today.

Trifectas All/2,8/4,6 (16) bets

4^th – Negrete has a first here, the Plain Shortenup. He’s 37% ITM at $13-1 with this angle in 87 tries.

Ferraro has a first here, the Plain FBK. He’s 44% ITM at $8.40-1 with this angle in 34 tries.

Davis rounds it out. He’s 50% ITM with his angle.

Trifectas All/1,2,7/1,2,7 (30 bets)

5^th – Sweezey has a first here. He’s 53% ITM with the L1-3 + 3TS + 2TT multiple angle. Pocket Aces has big EPS of $4400 and that last Palm Meadows work was off the hook, a +10 above the bullet par.

Chavez is 57% ITM with the FTS + FTT angle and that Derby Dreams work ten days ago was 7 better than the bullet par for that facility. Newyearspresent (2) is by #1 Florida Turf Sire Treasure Beach.

Exacta Box 2,3,5

6^th – Max Ubide has a first here. He’s 24 & 55 in 29 tries with the FBK + Dropdown.

Dini 2.0 is full of surprises. He’s now 26 & 63 with the FTS on the Dirt angle in L5T with a +73% ROI but Rowland’s last turf win was on Oct. 22^nd.

Win 8 and Saver Exactas 4,10/8

7^th – Chavez has another firster by Treasure Beach (see R5 comments). Jose’s opting for two divisions makes me think they may both be live.

Trifecta Box 3,4,8,9

8^th – Carrasco Jr. is 33 & 73 with the 1OC + CC in 33 tries.

I’m not takin’ it to the bank, but Takinittothebank (8) has been very consistent with T/Es of 204-195-198 in last three and Torres is 42% Win and Pl with his angle.

Spieth has a first, a weakness: 1-28 with No Changes.

Gooch is 3-56 with RtSs.

$60 Weighted Exacta Box 5,8 and

$10 Saver Trifectas 5,8/1,7/5,8 (4 bets)($40)

9^th – To close it out, Carrasco Jr. has a first, 54% ITM with the Plain UC + StR + DtoT.

Dare I suggest that Dr. No is even stiffing his longtime employer Darien Rodriguez. They were 43 & 77 for the last few years when the top choice, but are only 1-7 but with 6 ITM at this meeting.  Rodriguez is 90% ITM with Plain Favorites in L7T and is 2-2 win with others up in this situation but only 1-3 Win with Gallardo up at the meeting. Am I splitting hairs or does he have the same arrangement with Darien now, that he has with KOC? Only time will tell…

Trifecta Box 3,4,5,7 and Superfectas All/5/3,4/7 (14 bets)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/08/2023

Wishful thinking …..needing any kind of help that’s there,

I figured by heaping praise on JB for his clean sweep on

Saturday, the Racing Gods would smile on me for being a

kind person and throw me a friggen bone on Sunday …..

…..RIGHT … screw them !!! …I’ve been beaten so badly

all these years, my body has developed it’s own defensive

posture, and we continue to do it solitaire, happy and pleased

with any decent results ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 3, 4, 6

3) 2, 8

4) 2 *$*

5) 3, 6, 7, 10

                   $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 4, 5, 7, 8

7) 4, 5, 8

8) 1, 6

9) 5, 8

                   $24.00

*$* … Best Bet

****

Feb, 1st

1^st – The three that beat Exchequer (5) are 33% Win and Place lifetime and Rigatttieri is 29 & 72 with Plain Dropdowns. The best of the rest is going from the cursed PP1.

Drake bombed in 5 of 21 starts in P2T and is 0-7 at this meeting. Big surprise here would be no surprise at all.

Win 5 and Saver Trifectas 2,3,4/5/1,2,3,4 (9 bets)

2^nd – A price driven scenario unfolds here.

Rarick is 88% ITM if the favorite in this situation and also 42% ITM at 8-1 if that condition should present itself.

Tsirigotis has one win angle and this is it: 10 of 21 Win going longer if < 6-1.

I referred to Drake’s RD Blessing as ready for a terrorist attack in last. That’s the thing about such attacks, they come on their own schedule, not ours. See comments on Drake in R1.

Wilson’s piece was closest to par in last but has no angle.

Without an odds seeing crystal ball: Trifecta Box 3,4,7,8

3^rd – KOC is 24 & 40 with a +24% ROI with FTSs in dirt sprints. The shady relationship of Dr. No and KOC is well documented, but they are 25 & 60 when teamed up with debut types and Stonehedge has an EPS of $8300 in 22-23.

Bennett has better luck with these lightly raced types when on the Dropdown than when No Class Change, but as I’ve been saying all season, he’s got to try to win when La Machine (Jorge Delgado) and maybe Barboza Jr. too, are not entered.

Exacta Box 3,5 and Saver Trifectas 3,5/2,6/2,3,5,6

4^th – We don’t make Quirins for N2Ls at 9F on the grass but a parallel time chart suggests that Blue Nieth (1) went about +17,-2 in last on a day when the variant was -20,-9. If it’s real, the rest of these should be spent at the 1/8^th pole. Of course, Dr. No already missed twice on this one. He can’t be trusted to deliver a best effort.

Things set up nicely for the 6 & 10

Exacta Box 1,6,10

5^th – Terranova is 34 & 68 with Plain Shortenups and Curragh Stables is 19 (6-1-6) in L2T.

If I was handicapping conventionally, Kintz’s piece might get the nod for consistency and competitiveness. Last went +14,+6. Camacho sticks.

Exacta Box 4,5   and Saver Trifectas 4,5/1,2/4,5

6^th – In this shitshow of a race, folks doing ordinary banking business are confronted my many different gangs showing up to rob the same bank at the same time…

Trifectas All/2,3/1,2,3,5 (48 bets) if u dare

Pick 4 – All/1/1,6,9/5 (30 bets)

7^th – Mr. Bennett gets another bite at the apple with his arch nemeses out of the picture in this race. Gerry is 45% Win if the top choice in this situation and he outperforms with FBKs and Dropdowns.

Exacta Key Box 1/4,5

Saver Pick 3 – 4,5/1,2,5,6,9/5 (10 bets)

8^th – A little bit of detective work reveals that Ferraro is only 1-15 with the Long Layoff + Dropdown angle in L5T. Cajun Casanova (4) was dominant here in the past but this looks wrong to me. Coa has four bombs for Ferraro at the meeting, but this one will be odds-on and Ferraro’s average win odds are $5.10-1. No sir, I don’t like it.

Exacta Box 1,6,9 and Saver Trifectas 1,6,9/2,5/1,6,9

9^th – Sacco is 11 (2-2-2) with this angle (but not when I bet him, lol). Maybe my luck will get a little pick me up here. Last on Turf went +5,+3. Camacho is up.

Marino makes 1^st start since 2013. He’s gotta be feeling like a kid on Christmas morning.

Saver Exactas 6,7,10,13/5 if alive in the P4 or P3 to cover

otherwise, Exacta Key Box 5/6,7,10,(13)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/01/2023

While reviewing Sunday’s results to pen this report,

I couldn’t help but notice that Today’s Best Bet is

identical to Sunday’s choice ….oh baby, the Karma

….Where’s Jerry Bailey when you need him to call

how he sees today’s 4th race unfolding …. it’s the

key to todays success or failure ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 1, 2, 8

3) 4, 5, 6

4) 6, 10

5) 1, 5

                   $18.00

6) 1, 5, 10

7) 1, 5, 10

8) 1, 9

9) 3 *$*

                  $9.00

*$* … Best Bet

P.S. …..JB, we’ll know the outcome of that 4th after the first 1/8th

******

Leave it to Johnny B. to hit the All Button in almost every race on a day when there were 5 winners at < 3/2 and none over 9/2. So it goes…

I did a quick and dirty for the last couple of weeks and here is what I found. Half of the dirt race winners who’s last was over a FAST track at Tampa after Dec. 10^th (day 1 of the PP1 drought) with an inside trip won during this period with average odds of $6-1. I would call this compelling intel.

1^st – Nothings for sure but death and taxes, but Barboza Jr. is 76.5% ITM with his multiple angle and Grand Macallan (1) won’t have the uncertainty that having Gallardo on your back brings.

Trifectas Exacta Key Box 1/3,4 and Saver Trifectas 1/All/3,4 (10 bets)

2^nd – In OST on Dec. 23^rd, Ferrer fought to get to the rail and stayed there, losing all chance as the rail has been dead since Dec. 10^th. Value Leader Granitz gets another chance at rock bottom and Ferrer sticks.

$33 ATB 4

3^rd – Rini is 42% ITM with the 6.5F to T8F move and 37% claimed from Carrasco Jr have visited the circle. Centeno is 15 of last 17 ITM. Peep’s Day’s (3) win was +5,+4 better than today’s par.

ATB 3

4^th – Mr. Bennett has a 40% improvement in IV when leaving open company for the claiming ranks. He’s 20% Win with 2TSs and 37 & 60 with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown. Gotta get dem wins when Jorge Delgado isn’t entered…

DD 4/4

5^th – Centeno hasn’t missed the board on the grass in two weeks and Terranova is 5 for12 Win with Plain Rightbacks. Kevin was off Mr. Kringle when I scored with it on Christmas Eve (that was soooo poetically inevitable) but the holiday season is in the rearview mirror now.

Camacho is 8 of last 15 ITM on the grass and McGaughey has a 22 & 44 multiple angle here.

Posadas/McGoey PTB machine is now 13 of 17 ITM.

Saver Trifectas 1,2,7/4/1,2,6,7 if alive in the double

6^th – Lusk is 4% Win with his angle and Guciardo is 2% with hers. Arnett’s piece went -3,-7 two back on the dirt. Sassy Charlee (6), was inside but off the rail and missed with a 50% ITM angle in last. Delgado is 61% Win or Place with his angle but GG’s Dark Star (7) went -3 & -4 in last two.

Arriagada is 38 & 79 if the favorite in these circumstances. Raw Honey (5) went +14, +4 two back, then Meneses fought like hell to secure the dead rail and naturally faded in next. Switches to Morales today. Pops.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/7,8

Pick 4 – 5,8/2,5/1,7,8,9,10,11/1,5,6,8 (96 bets)

7^th – Motion is 29 & 86 with UCEs, but only 1-54 with Non-shipping L1-3s.

$25 Exacta Box 2,5

8^th – See R6 Pick 4

9^th – Trifecta Box 1,5,6,8

*****

As long as this hot streak continues, FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY will be suspended out of respect for our subscribers. Paypal your $10 payment for this week’s selections to tamselections@gmail.com or subscribe now.

*******

Friday, Dec. 23^rd

Today’s selections are completely revised after we observe that PP1 on the Dirt is now only 2-47 recently.

1^st – In what amounted to a lateral move in last, Dini’s piece took a lot of action and his team was obviously disappointed after Sunny Saint and Shoo Shine (1) went head-to-head for 6F making a +11 early and with both running out of gas in the stretch. Totally energy was just about right for today’s par 100-100.

Barboza Jr. is 14 of 18 ITM with 6 Wins with his angle. Soft pace in last did not affect the outcome. Wandering West (2) moves up in class but should get a check.

Indian Buzz (3) dueled with the winner in a virtual match race, but the effort left no positive impression. Sosa gives back 3 lbs. today. Machado was 7 over par and has a 56% ITM angle here. Drake will need a best effort to get paid today. Gatis is 2-38 with his multiple angle (2L + 2S).

Exacta 2/1

2^nd – Barboza Jr has a UCE both with the same angle as the R1 runner.

RD Blessing (3) has bombed here 4 times at average odds of $32-1 and after being an average of 14 BL in each previous start. I’m not a religious man, but I’ll get on my knees for that kind of blessing.

McGoey has 54% & 68% ITM angles here and was par in last.

This Hollywood Honey (7) has had more trainers and Owners than Zsa Zsa Gabor had husbands. Last was best but over a GOOD surface. I’m tossing it.

Trifectas 2,3,6/1/2,3,6 (6 bets)

$0.50 Saver Pick 4 – 1/2,3,7/1,2/1,4 (12 bets)($6.00)

3^rd – Anyone who has read my book, is aware that I dedicate several of its pages to the subject of PTBs. Expansive (1) has changed hands, so the surrogacy angle is not in play. Machado happens to be 19% Win with certain PTBs, in this case, the Non-long Layoff + 1PTB type, however, I have not collected data on which PTBs changed hands and which ones did not, therefore I’m unable to attribute this unique factor in the instant case (but I’m going to do a retro update as soon as time permits). Is Machado 19% Win with the Surrogate type or the New Owner/Changed Hands type. We just don’t know for the time being, but this one looks like a loser to me. The other half of his UCE (28 & 64), Mind Flayer (7) has a name that is  familiar to anyone with kids or grandkids. This monster from the hit Netflix series, Stranger Things, resides in the Upside Down, a term that I used to describe the insanity that went down during Tampa’s extended meeting from May 3^rd to June 30, 2020, whilst in the midst of the Pandemic. Hunches often outperform.

Dini 1.0 & 2.0 are 26 & 62 with firsters on the dirt in sprints. Only KOC, Bennett and Clement have more wins. If this one’s name was Discreet Miracle (Kevin’s saying for Mike) instead of Discreet Magic (4), I’d bet the farm on it.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,3,7

$5 Saver Pick 3 – 4/1,2/1,4 ($20)

4^th – Wilson is 3-71 with Shortenups. If he beats me, I will not even blink.

$50 Win 2

5^th – The 1 & the 4 both had the misfortune of going in two races that were above par duels (APDs) and I suspect that they were judiciously saved to fight another day.

Hardesty was a Value Leader for Win in 21-22 and conveniently babysits for a top bomb maker at the last 7 meetings, Joe Arboritanza. Joe was 42 % ITM with the TtoD + RtS angle and is one of only a few who I call “Change-up Artist/All Angle Threat” types. Merry Christmas Joey!

$50 Win 4

6^th – Slim pickens in this one with Brown and Delacour in there…Vicky Oliver offers the value, but my Wits, tells me to save my Wagers for another race.

Pass

7^th – With virtual goose eggs all around here, the firsters are looking like that $2 pretzel you buy leaving the track after a losing day. You know they suck, but you didn’t cash all day and now you’re starving…

Dutch Play 6,9 Win

8^th – Ivan Calixto (who?) wins with only starter in 30 years, it’s claimed, then Arnett gets 11 more clicks out of the mare for a +4 above today’s par in last. Over the years here at Sunshine Park, I’ve seen Rightbacks win 5 straight races and pay 3-1 every time.  It doesn’t pay to be a Doubting Thomas.

Exacta Key Box 6/2,5 and Saver Trifectas 2,5,6/1,3,8/2,5,6 (12 bets)

9^th – A 12 horse field? Thank you, Baby Jesus (and Santa Claus)!

Cibelli presents with a 47 & 80 multiple angle and has the infamous Dr. No aboard Grunder’s Call (9), who displays a recent sharp work at Palm Meadows.

Cibelli’s long-time gal pal, KOC has a Scott Acker PTB here. Scott was a Value Leader here in 21-22 and I would be negligent if I didn’t include Negligence (but PP12 hurts).

Ochoa is 18 & 45 with his angle.

Only 3 of 13 claimed from Sweezey have won here and Arriagada’s weakest DC angle, the Shortenup, only 14% Win, is not encouraging.

Yanez, our #1 Bomb Maker, has a 41% ITM angle here at 21-1.

I really struggle with the notion of putting all my eggs in Dr. No’s basket, but for a decent price he often comes through. I’ll make a downsized bet only.

If PP1 is still getting nowhere after eight, then

$1 Trifectas 9/1,5,6,12/1,2,5,6,12 (20 bets) ($20), otherwise

$3 Trifectas 1,9/1,9/2,5,6,12 (8 bets)($24) and

$1 Trifectas 1,9/2,5,6,12/1,9 (8 bets)($8)

******

Two lousy cards have me moving Free Play Wednesday to Friday this Holiday Week. See ya then…

Johnny B

******

Wednesday, Dec. 14^th

1^st – Everything reminds us of something else, and we attach values to things on this basis, a very bad feature of the human condition. Mr. Lightning Boy reminds me (subconsciously) of Wonderboy, the magic bat with the lightning bolt on it that Robert Redford used in The Natural. Anytime this happens, you gotta shake that shit off. It’s a very bad thing to do. Feliciano is 68% ITM here with Rightbacks and has Dr. No up. The Greek is 3-53 with 2L4-8s. Zamfir (4) makes irrational drop in class IMO and displays that telltale sharp work that all savior seekers display. There’s a sucker born every minute. Arnett’s piece went 97 early in last and shortens up in a par 99 today. He got things going now, with 6 of last 10 ITM with two wins.

Trifectas 6/All/1,4 (8 bets)

2^nd – Lots of shenanigans lead me to choose the wheel here.

Carvajal Jr. is 3 for 6 ITM with 2 Wins with the Turf 1Mi to 7F move, a rarely used and profitable angle for him.

Wilson is between 50 and 78% ITM with four distinct angles here. Rookie Salsa (2) went 3 over par in last,

Potts bombed 10 times with the SC + DC angle in the past.

Drake bombed in 5 of 22 at the last meeting. Sir Francis Drake circumnavigated the globe for the English in 1577. (Damn it!)

Rondon-Mora is 6 for 12 ITM lifetime. Chucky (5) may make Childs Play of these. (Oh Shit!)

Ochoa is only 7% off the Long Layoff but Litigant (6) was above par off the layoff at the last meeting.

Nunn is 38 & 75 with the FBK + CC angle.

$3 DDs All/4 ($21)

3^rd – El Policia (4) zipped at Summer Festival after off slow start and showed enough early speed in first try to warrant another act of support. Last went 93-87, today’s par is 85-93. Should have it his way for a Whopper of a win. (OMG!)

Win 4

4^th – Delgado is just killin’ it. He’s 30 & 70 with this angle and has good luck with 2YOs.

Exacta Key Box 1/4,8,9,10

5^th – Posadas and McGoey are not being discreet about their (financial) affair. He his 5 of 6 ITM with Monica’s PTBs. Last was par. They gotta be trying yet again today.

Dobber’s piece went +14,0 in last for a price, but he has a big goose egg with 2Ss.

Trifectas 4,10/3,7/3,4,7,10 (8 bets)

6^th – Arnett doesn’t have much luck with UCEs but is 56% ITM with same.

Carrasco Jr. reminds me of carajo (shit, damn, fuck in Spanish), an unfair association for sure. Give Victor extra points for my instinctive bias.

DDs 6/8,9 and Saver Trifectas 1,2,3,4/6/1,2,3,4 (12 bets)

7^th – The TtoD works for Hamm, so I’m guessing this one improves next time out.

Wilson is 3 for 69 with Shortenups. Nunn is 0-17 with StRs (only 3 ITM).

KOCs Tapsasional (8) mades Stakes level Quirins on 3/27 at 8.5F and has shown a liking for the grass. Kathleen is 50% ITM with the L4-8 + SC.

Delacour capped our first Pick 4 win of the meeting with this angle (32 & 69) last week. Why not?

$25 Weighted DDs 8,9/1,2

8^th – Like Posadas/McGoey, Dominguez fails to fool us with his little charade. Luis is 5 of 8 ITM with UCEs with 2 Wins (including a $64-1 nuclear bomb).

Saver Exactas 3,6,7,8/1,2 if alive in the DD to cover

9^th – Wilson’s piece was closest to par in last, Tony is 50% ITM with his angle and he is 78% ITM if 5-2 or <. Lullaby Land (5) will not put you to sleep (in spite of our tendency to attach that result to it).

$5 ATB 5

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/14/2022

******

Dec. 7th

1^st – Delgado is 33 & 70 with this type in L5T and Compass Cay was par in last. Once over the track types have an IV of 1.17.

Risk Vs Reward got some solid comments in August starts at Monmouth. DQ for drug violation creates handicapping questions. Sweezey is 67% ITM with the S + Dropdown + < $6-1 angle in 24 tries here. Wilson has a 66% ITM too: L4-8 + Dropdown. Imperial Bird (2) was par in maiden win.

Exacta Key 5/2,6

DD 5/1

2^nd – I can’t go with the recent N3L and N4L winners. Dini’s piece could wake up but I won’t bet on it. That leaves us with the 1 & 2. Sillaman’s piece has been facing some tough company I’m sure, and Ghost Stalker (1) won from OTP here with Centeno up last year, then won two more at this level. In the Tampa race, Ghost Stalker beat Indian Buzz, who was headed out of a win here last week for 8K.

Guciardo was 2 for 9 win when the favorite off the layoff in L5T. Cuz is my reluctant 2^nd choice.

Win 1

3^rd – Harty made a 67 in OST last time out. He was supposed to win that race. Today’s par is 88.

Potts is 6% with FTTs and Allen Jr. is up for 8.5F. Not interested.

Delgado by default.

Win 3

4^th – McGoey is 6 for 9 ITM with 2 Wins with the 2L1-3 + 2PTB. Paladio (3) was par in last.

Delgado is significantly less successful with PTBs than his own runners, so favoritism (47 & 64) may help us find a little value in this race.

ATB 3

5^th – Last week’s razor-sharp work for Dini’s Montauk Summer (2) has me looking for yet another win. Aqu shippers have a 2.21 IV in L10T.

Creed (1) made a +10 final fraction while finishing 11^th by 5 in last. FF in previous at 8F was par.

Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/1,4

6^th – O’Connor is 21 & 53 with the L1-3 + Stretchout and 14 & 50 with Shippers. She Dazzle (3) is the most productive filly he’s had in years. They will be looking for a check.

3 ATB or Exacta Box 3/All (12 bets) bettors choice

7^th – Motion UCE is 30 & 57 with a +$2.65 ROI. Both were ITM 20% of the time. Nations was solid here with FTTs (25 & 44) and Mena was 5 for 13 win for Keith here in 20-21. Older profiles often maintain their potency. Delacour is 24 & 62 here with Rightbacks. Final fraction in last was a whopping +8.

Trifecta Box 3,6,7,8

8^th – Bennett’s I’m a Cutie (8) made a 96-96 (+10,+9) in driving, front running effort last time out (today’s par is 92-93). Bennett doesn’t look for any cover here, so I’m thinking neither one of us was that impressed.

Arriagada has had mad luck with Santos in L2T (41 & 71) and Juan is 36 & 70 with RtS types with all above par singles.

Sandino Hernandez Jr. was 22 & 56 in five Tampa meetings before disappearing two meetings ago. He was 65% ITM with the S + Dropdown and was 17 & 63 in 1^st 3 OC. Two sharp Palm Meadows works have my antennas buzzing. He went to Centeno often back then.

$25 Exacta Box 3,7 and $3 Saver Trifectas 3,7/4,5,9/3,7 (6 bets)(Total wager $68).

9^th – JP Terranova is 43 & 65 with the L1-3 + Class Change (NOS) angle. He solid for W & ITM on our Trainer Value lists. He and Camacho are 31 & 65 when teamed up in L3T.

Win 5 and Exactas 5/1,2

*****

Wednesday, Nov. 30^th

After just three days of racing, McGoey already has four bombs, including three of six 1PTBs, while three of four of Posadas’ McGoey PTBs have also been ITM (Pedro is only 1 of 5 ITM with his “own” runners). You gotta love these sneaky bastards.

1^st – A short but competitive field makes for our first wheel of the meeting. KOC is 33 & 71 with UCEs and both look just fine. Her regular boy is up on the 5 and she is 21 & 44 with firsters on the dirt with Spanabel in the irons. Kathleen is also 23% win with 2YOs here in Oldsmar. Harty also has a UCE (13 & 43) and they both are satisfactory. Harty is long overdue for a FTS win (he’s 1-22 with 6 ITM here) and Cox Canyon (3), a son of 13% Tampa sire, Ghostzapper, worked sharply from the gate and has Arroyo up and he is off to a flying start too.

Sweezey, was a bomb maker with lightly raced types in days done by, but like all good things, trainers like this lend themselves to becoming shark bait. This runner, by #11 N.A. Sire American Pharoah, has a conditional 68% ITM angle, S + Dropdown at < $6-1, goes for Westbury Stables with an EPS of $3770 and went 10 better than the bullet par at Palm Meadows ten days ago.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/All (10 bets) if 4 is < 6-1 at post time

2^nd – Dini 2.0 has greatly improved singles here and has six 1^st 3 T bombs recently, but as I have previously stated, I won’t bet Rockin’ Ronnie at 8.5F or longer again, the numbers just don’t support it. The money is gonna drive the bus in this one. JH Delgado is 47 & 64 if the favorite here and Delacour is 85% ITM if the top choice in this situation. If the smart money goes to the 4 or 5, then follow it…

Exactas The favorite/3,4,5,8 (as the case may be) and

Saver Trifectas The favorite/2/3,4,5,8 (as the case may be)

3^rd – It’s hard to make a case for any of these but Lorito is 25 & 50 with L1-3 + 1PTB types and El Policia (2) overcame “off slow” start to win by 6 at the Summer Festival. Rountree’s piece went better than par in Maiden win on the closing weekend of the meeting and Machado is 35% ITM with TtoDs, has par singles all around and has 7 layoff bombs recently.

Go get a beer and a dog or Trifectas All/6/2,4 (8 bets)

4^th – Defective choices abound. Yanez is 5 of 10 ITM at $16-1 with Non-layoff Shippers, but he goes to Allen Jr. (ugh)! For all of Dini’s makeover improvements, he’s still poor off the claim (5% (3-57) overall here in L11). Lisa Allen is 0-30 with her angle, Escobar is 1-69 with his.

Trifectas 1,2,8/All/1,2,8 (36 bets)

5^th – Barboza Jr. rules with 28 & 68 stats with this type at Tampa. Mr. Cash (6) has a 17.5% Sire. Centeno looks to break the ice here.

Win 6

6^th – Choice of pilots on the runners in this race has me leaning into Joe Phillips (3), who returns to a good distance and surface today for Kerri Raven 14 (1-1-0) with this type.

Bennett is now 0-31 with his angle.

Ferraro is 4-60 with his.

I’m also off Rigattieri in 3OC with 4% Raul Mena up.

ATB 3

7^th – UCE from Jorge Delgado, each with a 26 & 67 angle, guts the value, rendering this one unplayable IMO.

Pass

8^th – Another UCE, this one from KOC, 33 & 71, is tough to bet against, but, neither has a multiple angle going, and that’s something.

Manning is 15-28 ITM with his angle and is 20% Win with 3TSs. I’m gonna overlook 7 & 30 stat for 2TTs. Dennis bombed at $50-1 last season with a 2TS + FTT. Bracho is back (in the positive figurative way).

$10 ATB 3

*****

Opening Day -2022

A lot has changed since I began this adventure (publicly in 2007, but a lifetime before that for my own edification) to prove to myself and the racing world, the value of Multiple Angle Trainer Profiling. I can say unequivocally that the best of those angles are about as reliable as clocks, but this is a game in which most punters want action, lots of it, and what I do requires patience and sound judgement. In the interest of running a business, I’ve always tried to cater to the former but in doing so, I’ve pushed the envelope beyond the limits of what can be reliably expected to occur, losing more and more customers the harder I worked at trying to give them what they wanted.

What remains in 2022, is a small hardcore group that has been with me through thick and thin and who don’t require any coddling. I’m most grateful to Kevin Pussilano, who has been the Sancho Panz to my Don Quixote, offering practical advice and economical Pick Four plays every race day for all these years.

Rich Grunder could destroy the call of a race, but his signature daily sentiment:

“Good luck and good racing!” is classic, and Kevin and I wish that for all of you.

1^st – Dobber is 0-19 with 3 ITM with L4-8s. Xavier Rivera makes first start since Dec. 2020 and purchased Camptown Races (3) from Collazo. Rivera WAS 14 & 42 lifetime with a respectable EPS before going dark. Idk, maybe. Wirth is trying desperately to get back in the game and his piece was close to par in best start here last winter. Thejigisup (7) was claimed for $16K here last season and finally got it done at a track that is 6 clicks lower than Tampa on the food chain. I don’t think so. Delgado is 27 & 70 at GP with Dirt Sprints in L5.

Exacta Box 3,4,6

2^nd – Proctor was all business last season 11 (5-5-0) and he and Castanon are 35 & 63 when teamed up in L4T. Jesus had an IV of 1.62 from the chute last season, and Tom is at the top of our Trainer Value list with a rating of 2.11 (9^th of the top 25).

KOC, similarly, is 16 & 44 in L2T with Diaz Jr. up and Hector’s IV was 2.15 from the chute last season. Leading 3^rd Crop Sire Jess’s Dream is another plus for Alexa’s Dream (2), but KOC has no win angle here (but is 59% ITM).

Exactas 6/2,4

3^rd – Gallardo is a thief (in the worst sense of the word) but he doesn’t screw over Darien Rodriguez. They are 32 & 62 in L5T. Darien has no win angle here, but he is 28 & 64 in 1^st 3 OC. Delaware has produced the most winners at Tampa before Christmas for the past couple of years.

Wilson has a 66% ITM angle, the L1-3 + Dropdown and a 49% ITM angle, the L1-3 + Stretchout and Tony, while among the lowest in EPS on the Trainer Value list for ITM, has a solid rating of 3.44, placing him #17 of the top 25 (most of them big dogs).

Hats off to Arraigada for the first big balls move of the meeting. Native Hawk (9) was well above par in several of his wins here recently and leaves SALW off the layoff. Juan is 19 & 75 with L4-8s and 39% Win when Shipping + the Favorite. This is a head scratcher…

Trifectas 1,9/1,3,6,9/1,3,6,9

4^th – The rain ends at 5AM. We’ll probably be on the TURF on Opening Day. Bennett has a very solid bet against here: 0-30 with the S + DtoT, but is he merely the surrogate for Fawkes today or is this the first of many under Gerry’s care??? Only time will tell… Bennett is 26% Win here with 2YOs and JJ Brevan Stable is all business…

Lerman is 27% ITM at $27-1 with the 2TS + FTT + Dropdown…

Dini is 5 (1-0-1) with FTS + FTT angle since his makeover…

If OFF THE TURF, Harty is 38 & 73 in OST races…

Weighted DDs 1,2,4,6,7,8,9/1

5^th – Sensible claim by Arraigada and a 32 & 72 off the claim record for Juan, give top billing to Steadytillready (1) returning to the drying but FAST surface today.

Arnett is short on data, but big on wins with his angle here. WA Garcia, one of his regular boys is noticeably absent.

McGoey’s piece is two days over the limit for Non-layoff status, where she has 64% of her wins. The numbers say she’ll get a piece if < 7-2. Sometimes intentions cause me to bend the rules just a bit…

Exacta Key Box 1/3,4

6^th – Lerman has no angle here, but Aqu shippers do have an IV of 2.21 in Oldsmar.

Bordis was our #3 bomb maker in 21-22 with 21% bombs at $24-1. This one has his bomb characteristics: Lightly Raced, 1^st 3 Turf, Layoff & Shipper. I think I have a crush on Bella Romance (10).

Win 4 and Exacta 4/10 and Trifectas 4/2,5,6/10

$5 Win, $10 Place and Show 10

7^th – Mister Fernando (9) went 105-96 on the lawn on May 6^th. Today’s par is 89-92. I know turf numbers are less than perfect, but they ain’t that bad. His sire, Quality Road, has 17.8% Winners here at Tampa. Nunn had solid debut meeting. Would be a nice way to begin the new meeting…

Runaway Tom (2) raced forwardly for 6½ a month ago and does the RtS today for Phillip. His sire is 14.3% Win here (9 for 63).

Pass

8^th – KOC has a 37% Win record at $12-1 with this 5 characteristic multiple angle: L1-3 + S + UC + No Distance or Surface Change. It doesn’t get much better.

Bennett’s top rider, Camacho, takes a pass for the mount on Vinson’s Morgan Point (10). The 4, 7 & 10 all pass our 3+3 test for the N1X, but Allen Jr. now approaching 60 years old, will have to convince me that he’s still got it (either way I’ll never bet him at 8.5F or longer…nothing personal).

$25 Exacta Key Box 3/4,10 ($100)

9^th – Here’s a good one: Delgado is 0-17 if not the favorite with this angle, but 47% win if the favorite with this angle. Chew on that for awhile.

Bennett is logical choice.

Arnett is 12 & 55 with UCEs. Not so hot…

Our #1 bomb maker, Yanez, had 5 bombs > 25-1 last season and he’s 41% ITM at $21-1 with the S + No Class Change. You gonna leave Bionda Surprise (10) out?

Be guided by the board.

Exacta Box 6,8 if 8 is the favorite, otherwise

Exacta Key Box 6/4,10 and Saver Trifectas 6/1,3,11/4,10

*********

Summer Festival 2022 – June 30^th

Ya gotta wonder why they card so many races on the Turf at the Summer Festival, when the forecast is usually for rain. At first glance, one might assume it would be to encourage greater participation in the two-day event, but I’m guessing that a high likelihood of taking them off the grass and the scratches that would inevitably follow, means fewer backstretch and gate workers and a more manageable two days for the skeleton crew that is hastily thrown together to pull it off. Either way, we must handicap most of the races twice…

Our 50% off subscription deal for 22-23 ends today. Email me to subscribe today for $75 at tamselections@gmail.com

1^st – Barboza Jr. is surrogate for Sano, a trainer that is usually trying here, albeit with limited success (9 & 28 in L3T). Victor appears to have entered a place holder under Romero, thereby reducing the field to only six to beat. Waz’s piece has made par numbers and he has engaged The Horse Whisperer, but Pete is also only 12% Win with Non-shipping L1-3s recently (that’s not bad for him though). Hemingway’s Chick has no early foot. Puckett’s always trying but What a Knockout (2) had only two starts since last year’s Summer Fest. Camacho in the irons leaves me curious but not sold. Smith has no record with the Shipper + FBK move.

In an OST, Hem is 23 & 65, Waz is 0-17 and Smith is 8 & 62.

DDs 5,8/3,4

OFF THE TURF – Pass

2^nd – We prefer runners with the 3+3 in N1Xs and that highlights primarily Morici’s Smooth Pebble (3). Barbazon’s Promise Me (2) fits alright for a piece, as does Proctor’s Influencing (4). Lester has made seven (7) bombs with well beaten lightly raced types here recently and has Camacho here. Tom was 5 for 6 Win with this angle here in 21-22 and was 25 & 58 with the same angle here at the prior meeting.

Proctor and Coa have a long-standing relationship, especially with lightly raced types and he has all solid singles here.

2,3,4 Exacta Box

OFF THE TURF – ATB 9 if Free Data draws in.

3^rd – When you claim from a super-trainer (34 & 60 on dirt in L5GP) and then she goes fast early in first off the long layoff, further improvement must be expected. Diane Morici is a respectable 14 & 33 with this type in L3T. Drop in class after 8 months of feed bills is a bit of a turn off however. Manchan presents with his bomb angles on display. Smith can always surprise with his FTS here (12 & 40). Bali Moon is re-entered tomorrow, but is an AE. We’ll see…

Weighted Exacta Box 3,7,8

4^th – Despite the shell game, Jojo’s Dream (10) remains with Asterace Group Llc with a healthy AEPS of $5823.

Ed’s Dog (AE11) is an on-demand bomber. Sixty-six percent of all of Lorito’s starters are either PTBs or Ed’s Dog. Mario is 4 of 9 ITM with the FBK + Dropdown and 2 of 5 ITM with the FBK + StR. The moment you give up on this mutt, you get bitten.

Yanez always threatens and while Vintner made only one Summer Festival appearance (losing by 20), the 6YO was ITM in 6 of 9 here since New Year’s Day. Gotta figure a piece makes sense. Vintner’s two wins do not reflect a lack of talent but rather the trainer’s desire to keep him providing solid value.

Camacho is aboard Machado surrogate and looks wrong on the way up in class move.

Sanchez’s Stirling Drive (8) comes out of an N3L/N1Y and not a particularly strong field for a three-horse photo finish on April 10th. Curt’s Call (3) is also out of the Sterling Drive race on April 10^th.

Escobar is an unbelievable 1-125 with Class Change types and 1-47 with Shippers.

Agostini makes first start since 2020. I’m sure they have high hopes but only one can win.

Exacta Box 6,10,11 if it goes, otherwise Vintner ATB 6

5^th – Perhaps the closest thing to a cold exacta today, Gulick is 26 & 47 with his angle and Stewart is 50% ITM with the L4-8 + Distance Change and 33% ITM with all FTTs here.

Asterace Group Llc tries to slip another through our net.

Bordis has three 1^st 3 M + 1^st 3 T bombs recently.

Exacta 4/2 and Saver Trifectas 4/2,5,8,AE9/2,5,8,AE9 (12 bets) to cover

6^th – American Dollar (3) made par twice here earlier in the year and Romero is 56% ITM with his angle but while 0-7 with the angle. It’s a bad habit to make excuses for horses, but in this race, I just can’t make an argument for any other.

Win 3 and Exacta 3/2,AE9

7^th – Asterace has yet another here, Rasmalai (1). Better than par in last, gotta figure she is supposed to win this one.

Win 1 and Weighted Exactas 1/4,5,AE11,AE12

8^th – Bill Deaton is 23 & 58 on the lawn here and wins 25% on the Dropdown. He’s been on our radar for at least 8 years. I’d feel better about it if Cardoso stuck but Meneses does have about 100 career turf wins.

Smith is 70% ITM with the StR + DtoT + 2TT recently. Looks like a bit of a stretch but Skyler has surprised us so often.

If they are off the turf, Bordis is 42% ITM here with Dirt Routes and has those seven L1-3 bombs under his belt.

Who will be up aboard Salty Bird (AE9) if they are off the turf but Deaton’s piece still goes…..a good rider will cause me to key the Fisher firster on the loam.

Exacta Box 1,8,9

OFF THE TURF – Exacta Key Box 9/1,8,12

 The Summer Festival of Racing 

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for Day 1 of the Festival 

Can you believe it ???!!!! It’s finally here !!!! The most

anticipated two days of racing at Tampa is upon us, and

not a minute too soon, as I’ve been salivating for the

better part of 2 months for it to arrive. But, alas,

the wait is over, as some of the best talent has been

assembled, both equine and human, for our gaming

pleasure. I’m at a loss to tell you all, just how much

I look forward to these 2 days, so without further

adieu, Best Luck to All !!! (you’ll need it!)

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 2, 3, 4, 6, 8

3) 3, 6, 8

4) 6, 7

5) 2, 4, 8

                  $45.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) $0.50 

5) 2, 4, 8

6) 3, 6, 7

7) 1, 2

8) 3, 7

                  $18.00

Best Bet ….with all this talent, can you believe it?,

               I’m baffled for a best bet ….

*****

Wednesday, May 4th

This is our 364^th FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY and of the million punters who have made an appearance here on Wednesdays, only a handful have had joined the club. Somehow, that dollar saved on Wednesday, has a lot more value than the dollar they would have to spend to get our picks every weekend. A gambler is the hardest person you will ever try to get to part with a buck and all you tight wads can kiss my ass! So it goes…

1^st – Mr. David’s PTB remains with Ccf Racing and David is 21 & 50 with this type at GP. Foolish Heart (4) was par in first try. You’d be a fool no to play her…

Pick 3 –  4/2,3/1,3,4

2^nd – I had to double check my work, but Azpurua Jr. is only 6% Win with his angle, while Granitz is 20% Win on the RB. Both conditioners have solid F3W IVs historically and both have been hitting it hard in these final three weeks. Barboza Jr. is 29 & 79 with this type and McGoey, if < 6-1 here poses a serious threat.

Trifectas 2,3/1,5/1,2,3,5 (8 bets)

3^rd – In a six horse field, Arriagada UCE looks tough to beat. Ironically, Odds On (3) has the better angle 38 & 80, but Juan hasn’t gone to Wesley Henry. On the other hand, Native Hawk (1) was better than par in last and triple would be no surprise.

Trifecta Box 1,3,4,5

4^th – Alpha Predator (2) will crush these if ready, but that’s a big if and only strong backing (like odds on) would bring me around to considering Hamm’s piece.

Pass

5^th – Parra is 40% ITM with Plain FBKs and bombs with 30% of Plain Distance Changes.

$2 All/All/6 (42 bets)($84)

6^th – Stewart is 43 & 87 when the favorite off the layoff and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting (if the bettors make it so).

My Man Vito (6) went +3,-3 in last.

If the favorite Win 3 otherwise Exacta Key Box 3/1,6

$0.50 Pick 4 – 3/8/All/3,4,5,6,7,8 ($30)

7^th – Yanez has made a habit of finishing strongly and Vintner (8) is the one most likely to succeed (if that’s the goal of course). His other entry (Excellent Mark on the 6^th) doesn’t look like much. Like many of the great bomb makers, Yanez has brought too much attention to himself, and his runners take a lot more action these days, than they did in the past. If the crowd tires of his 2nditis he will strike for a big price. If not, he is likely to cash another check for a minor share.

Saver Exactas 4,7/8 to cover the Pick 4

8^th – Three UCEs and a 2L that lost it’s rider make for a hot mess in this one.

Pass

9^th – The MATP for Ribaldry and Delacour say the filly was supposed to be there in last and the long price supports the notion that this one is a dud. If the AE 12 doesn’t go, give me

See R6

****

Wednesday, April 27^th – 2 weeks remain

On Sunday, two wins, four 2nds and a 3^rd and nothing to show for the effort. So it goes…

Our half-off Subscription sale for 2022-2023 ends on June 30th. Get er’ done!

1^st – Hardesty is 27 & 63 with her angle and Cahill is 4 & 32 with his. GIRL POWER trio of Bowersock, Abby Fuller’s kid Laurine and Bill Downing’s daughter Miranda is like faulty wiring in an old electric stove – ready to shock you when you least expect it, but the trio is 1-68 with Long Layoffs. Hot pilot FDLC has a mount in every race today. If this week is anything like last week, Fernando will have 6 more winners and 11 more ITM.

ATB 3

2^nd – Arriagada is 46 & 77 with his multiple angle, has FDLC up and Fuego Caliente (5) was above par in last. Aycapote (2) has Win, three 2nds, a 3^rd and a 4^th in five Tampa starts and unlike most of these is ascending after descending.

Guciardo is having a solid meeting and is 33% ITM in F3W, but she’s also 0-40 with FBKs with an IV of 0.75 for ITM with same.

Exacta Box 2,5

Pick 3 – 2,5/1,2,3,10/3,7 (16 bets)

3^rd – You may recall that 58-year-old Rockin’ Chair Ronnie Allen Jr has had little luck in races at 8.5F or longer for the last couple of years. I just can’t support him.

See R2

4^th – Rodriguez is 33 & 52 with his angle and Schistl is 26 & 59 with his. The latter has a 1.85 IV in F3W and has a winner with these at the current meeting.

$50 Weighted DDs 3,7/8 (Parlay winnings to the Pick 4)

and Trifectas 3,7/1,6/1,3,6,7 (8 bets)

5^th – Gulick’s PTB is interesting. Vitale (6) stays with Moabo Stables and Block is 43% Win here with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown but Block has little luck with FTTs, while Gulick has bombed with FTTs here in the past.

Rudolfo is not Rodolfo of course, but Lone Stable, establishes the connection.

Schistl’s Ludo (8) is the one to beat.

Exacta Key 8/3,5,6

6^th – None of these meet our 3+3 criteria for N1Xs and the race par is projected to be -3,-2. The 4 & 6 are close, but no cigar.

Christopher Duncan was 2 of 6 Win in F3W last year and he slips one in today.

Parlay only play. All three could cash, but one might be alright…

$2 Pick 4 – 3,4,6/8/1,3,4,10/1 (12 bets) ($24)

$1 Pick 4 – 3,4,6/1,2,8/1,3,4,10/1 (36 bets)($36)

$0.50 Pick 4 – 3,4,6/8/1,3,4,10/1,3,5,8 (48 bets)($24)

7^th – Negrete’s hopes of not being shut out rest with Ballymena (8) and he’s 20 & 50 with No Changes.

Exacta Key Box 8/1,2

8^th – See R6

9^th – See R6

****

April 20th  T-8

2022-2023 Subscriptions are on sale, 50% off or $75 until July 1^st (with a stipend to Mr. Pick Four).

It can be paid through the Paypal app as “send money to a friend”, by Venmo @John-Barile-10, by check or cash (naturally). I hope you’ll subscribe before the new meeting officially begins on July 1^st. Of course, I’ll entertain any questions you may have and look forward to serving you in the future. Email us at tamselections@gmail.com.

So it goes…

1^st – Arnett UCE leaves us guessing the well-intended of the two, as he is just 13% ITM with both (and also 13% Win with one of them). Lea Me Alone (2) woke up on the last of the GOOD surface races on April 3^rd. Was it already FAST? Garcia won 4 of 13 last week. Kenai Cool (1) looks like the one today. The reclaimed Arnett runner went +4 two back and Morales is #2 in the standings with the best win percentage in the colony.

Russell has 9 Win and Place in 26 tries with today’s angle. Wakeup wouldn’t surprise.

DD 1/2,7 and Saver Pick 3 – 2,5,6/2,7/3,6 to cover

2^nd – Gaffney family operation has made a habit of bombing doubles and triples. Takemyshot (2) went +8,-1 two back and with clearly unwarranted action while moving up in class a click.

Bennett is < 10% Win when not the favorite here and sub-par with MCs late in the meeting (IV 0.76).

FDLC had 5 winners last week and is up for Nunn, 20 & 60 with the 1OC + Shortenup this meeting and last.

DD  2,7/3,6 and Saver Pick 3 – 2,7/5,7/All (24 bets) to cover

3^rd – Raymond is 16 of last 29 ITM and Rowland is 3 of last 5 ITM. Peter Griffin (as Kevin calls him) is also 50% ITM with Plain TtoDs in 36 tries.

Wilson is 0-19 with StR and his piece was sub-par (-16,-7) in last win.

Arnett is 15 & 52 Off The Claim but Mizzen Air (4) was also sub-par in last (-25,-11) and previous (-8,-4).

Vinson isn’t a claiming trainer and his piece is out of Mizzen Air’s last race.

March 25^th was a day with a lot of irrational numbers and unlikely front running winners. Idk about Inedatequila (7) today.

Trifecta Box 3,5,6,7

4^th – “All” makes sense here. Woodard’s piece may be Unrideabull (5) but it’s not Unbetable. Walter bombs often with PTBs. The ball is about to drop for Newyearsblockparty (2) with only seven days remaining at the meeting.

See R2

5^th – Another unlikely Gaffney family bomber. 146-1 to 8-1 and finishes ITM? Oh please…

Arnett looks wrong 0-11 with DtoTs and 0 ITM.

Pass

6^th –Idk how cheapie Styner beat Tapsational (7) in last but the number was real (+5,+9). KOC looks best again in this N1X. She’s just about meets our 3+3 with a 3 + 2 & 7 and Kathy is 21 & 51 with this angle. Our longshot Munqaad, beat the two favorites in next after being headed by Tapsasional in previous.

Win 7

$0.50 Pick 4 – 7/3,5,8/2,8/All (60 bets)($30)

7^th – Exacta Box 3,5,8

8^th – Idk Seale, but he’s 13 (2-0-4) with this angle Lifetime. We had Gimmebackmybullets (8) in debut and we have it again. Juan has solid singles all around. Rhone popped at long odds with another FTS with The Horse Whisperer up. Again? I’d say no, but she has the magic touch, she really does…

Saver DDs 5,7,9/1,3,9 (9 bets) if alive in the P4 to cover after two legs

9^th – Rigattieri is hot. ITM in 12 of last 16 with 5 Wins. Odd that Yanez waits for four races before bringing Bionda Surprise (1) home. Maybe he waited for someone else to foot the bill for the treatment of an illness or injury (pun intended). Man, that would be shrewd! Exposito took a break during the pandemic but was previously a player of about the same stature as Waz or Carvajal Jr. or Yanez. His only recent winner, Jeff’s Angel (9) was above par and reunites with JE Lopez again today. “All” is very tempting here.

See Rs 6 & 8

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/20/2022

4/20 …it’s T-10 days and counting …the smaller barns have

feed, Vet, and tack bills that need to be paid …anymore need

to be said ?? …..4/20 ….17 days til Monmouth and 35 days

til Delaware, and of course, only 71 days til the highlight of

the year, the ever popular Summer Festival of Racing ….4/20

…not sure, but I think I’m forgetting something …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 3, 4, 7

3) 5, 6, 7

4) 6

5) 1, 5, 6, 7

                  $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 7

7) 5, 8, 9

8) 4, 9

9) 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9

                   $18.00

Co-Best Bet **  …..4/20

****

April 13^th – T minus 10

When I scrapped what I thought what should have been a 7-2 return on the 6^th race exacta on Sunday (because the price was way too generous) and then watched it win and return closer to 9-1, my spirit sank. Once again, competing devices conspired against me. A man must have his own opinion vs. the market is usually right (or at the very least, indicative). There’s only so many unforced errors a man can take….

Musician and Activist Harry Chapin, a champion for eradicating world hunger before he died in a crash on the LIE on the way to a fundraiser in July of 81’, used to say, “When in doubt, do something!” That is sage advice that I should take. Kevin’s been watching me sitting on my hands most of the time for the past twenty years. The guys in the Box say, “Are you ever going to make a bet?” “Oh wait? He’s getting up!” Then I tell them, I just have to pee…

Today, we break out the Final Three Weeks report, a look back since 2013 at the conditioners with the greatest variance between their ordinary strike rates and their strike rates during the remaining weeks of the meeting.

1^st – There’s something to be said for using hard copies of trainer profiles. When I open a file, I often navigate to the part of the page that I think I want to see and may miss the bigger picture. Nunn came into the meeting 40 & 80 when less than 5-2 and after another 15 starts at those odds, he remains 40 & 80. That’s pretty consistent. Doug is 18 & 53 with 1OCs, but hasn’t popped with a StR in 12 tries, however, Only Girl (6) has already showed a liking for the distance.

Hunt is 0-15 with StRs. Negrete is 3% with StRs. Raymond is 4% Win Off the Claim.

Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/All (10 bets)

2^nd – I’m going out on a limb here. Bennett has tried this angle only twice in 8 years (but won one of them). I’m not buying it.

Feliciano was par in last two. Arriagada is 26 & 78 with Plain Dropdowns and Arnett is 32 & 59 with Plain FBKs.

Exacta Key Box 3/2,5

Pick 4 – 2,3,5/All/7/5 (18 bets)

3^rd – Nunn’s Kiger (2) looks a lot like his piece in R1. Mazza claims Onlyamatteroftime (3) off triple from Rigattierri. Joe has four bomb angles going here. Camacho jumps off Kiger after six mounts for Mazza’s longshot. What’s up with that?

$10 ATB 3 ($30)

4^th – The claimers only have an IV of 0.89 in these OCs, so we begin from there.

Delacour is 55 & 95 if the favorite in this scenario. Appears likely to be the top choice.

Saver Trifectas All/7/1,5 (10 bets) if alive in the Pick 4

5^th – McGaughey is 27 & 53 with his angle and Red Hot and Blue (5) made big +9 final fraction in last.

Thomas is 82% ITM with the L1-3 + Stretchout.

Clement cost me $500 in the Late P4 last Saturday when he choked with this angle at odds-on. He’s now 2 for 13 with the angle in L5T.

Win 5 Exacta 5/2 and Saver Trifectas 5/1,4,6,7/2

6^th – Bennett is incredible 50 of 55 ITM if favored here with 30 winners. Watch the board…

Dobber’s piece went on wrong surface after bad break in previous. The whole thing might be a conspiracy (or not). Either way, three previous were OK.

Exacta Key Box 3/4,6,8 if three is favored, otherwise

Trifecta Box 3,4,6,8

If Bennett is the favorite:

$10 DD 3/7

$0.50 Pick 4 – 3/All/2,3/2,4,6 (60 bets) ($30)

7^th – Galvan is 0-26 with 2L4-8s and is the ML choice. What a gift!

Granitz is our #3 conditioner in the final three weeks, with twice the strike rate than at the rest of the meeting.

$15 Win and Place 7

8^th – Fox Rox (2) is seriously overdue for a bad break, but will be there if he gets out.

Awesome Anywhere (3) was well above par in last two Tampa starts. Odds in last hint at simply being outgunned as opposed to other alternative narratives.

$5 Trifectas 3/1,4,5/1,2,4,5 (9 bets) ($45) and Saver Exacta Box 2,3 to cover

9^th – Barbozon III has had 7 lightly raced bombs recently and all were well beaten in previous.

Harpoon Harry (4), who I’ve been all over for the whole meeting, made N3X level Quirins in last, a 110-107 over the GOOD track that day. Today’s par is 94-94. Bennett is 1-13 with this angle in L5T. Can’t leave Harry out, can’t leave him in.

Albertrani is 29 & 47 with his angle, but Van (6) has been in over his head, but all of these are…

Exacta Box 2,4,6 and Trifectas 2,4,6/1,3/2,4,6 (12 bets)

****

Wednesday, April 6^th

1^st – After watching the replay, Gatis’ U Know I Be Lion (6), looks right on the Stretchout and he is 15 & 35 with this type. Arriagada has a 36% Win angle with RtSs and Hello Rosie Say (5) broke maiden from the chute here. If favoritism is to Susikin (4) (but I suspect not) Carrasco Jr. is 81% ITM. It would be the first time at the meeting. If not, he has a 50% ITM angle.

Pick 3s – 5,6/4/All (14 bets) and 5,6/All/5 (12 bets)

2^nd – Russell is 0-20 with his angle and his ML is 9-5. Jara went a couple of clicks better than the others entered here, but Davis has a 4% Win angle and 2-1 looks too short to me also.

Win 4

3^rd – Ten-year old Doodle Hopper (6) had a bad break on the Rightback, but not an excuse for poor performance at 3/2, however Rigatierri is 69% ITM with FBKs at average odds of 5-1.

Wild Winter (4) is an on-demand type for putover team of Allen and Allen. Is today the day (again)?

Hot and Heavy (5) is the cleanest of these, Wilson is 17 & 46 with Plain Stretchouts and Santos is 8 of 14 ITM in the past week with 4 Wins.

Win 5

4^th – Munoz is 8 of last 11 ITM at 8-1. The “short term cycle” in action. Will it continue?

Trifecta Box 2,3,4,6

5^th – I had the pleasure of speaking with Owner Jennifer Nobles yesterday about the decision to enter Indian Buzz (4) under the care of her 84-year-old father Reynaldo on Jan. 23^rd after a 10-year break from training. You may recall that I had it on top that day under the poetic inevitability heading of “why here and why now?” Jenn tells me that Wes Henry is up on Buzz every morning and they have a man & equine arrangement worked out to their mutual benefit. The personal care and attention given to Buzz has paid off (so far). I’ve attached a recent article that captures the essence of our conversation. No need to do the same work twice:

At 84, Reynaldo Nobles is Back in the Game (thoroughbreddailynews.com)

A short field helps chances today, as does Arnett’s 7% Win record with UCEs and 0-21 Roque’s results in three tries off the claim that are moving in the wrong direction. Bennett’s piece has no angle but looks OK.

Exacta Box 2,4 and Trifectas 2,4/All/2,4 (10 bets) to cover

6^th – The King of the Pocket Change play, Mr. Pick 4, has 5 runners in today’s 6^th and that just about says it all.

Bomb makers March, Chavez, Mazza and Collins, all have bomb angles in play.

The GIRL POWER connections of Gino time are usually a threat.

Even Machado is hot with 6 of last 12 ITM with 3 Wins.

$50 Weighted Pick 3 – All/3,4,5/4 (30 bets)

7^th – When Lynryd Skynrd came out with Gimmebackmybullets (4) in 1976, it was the band’s way of saying they were done drinkin’ and druggin’ and were ready to get back to the top of the US Billboard Charts. Among other things, it was about the American Dollar (5). A hunch play, if there ever was one. Arriagada has 54% ITM angle with firsters and Romero is 80% ITM lifetime. Just sayin…(five horse field now).

$10 Exacta Box 4,5 ($20)

8^th – Tiz Handsome (4) gave all in last, dueling with three different runners at various calls in the race and still made a +2,+1. No wonder he’s had six weeks off.

Best Bet – Win 4

DD 4/1,2,7,9

9^th – Trifecta Box 1,2,7,9

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/06/2022

After a mixed weekend of hits, cancellations and near misses,

we’re ready for the final 17 days of the meet, and taking a

crack at coming out of this mess with a plus sign next to our

total ….Santos is on a tear, as is Gerry Bennett (again) and

my girl Skyler continues to improve daily….Dr. No has taken

a hiatus (believe he’s back in Toronto), and the exodus has

started, so we look to the caravan from Ocala to fill the 

empty saddles ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 2, 4

3) 2, 5, 6

4) 3, 6, 8

5) 1, 2, 5

                   $27.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

7) 3, 4

8) 3, 4

9) 1, 4

                  $20.00

Wednesday, March 23^rd

1^st – Avila’s Take Me As I Am (5) went 3 better than par in last and Juan is 67% ITM with the RB + UC and 67% ITM with the Plain FBK. Avila is 4 of 8 Win in March. She’s one dimensional, but will be trying again.

Rhone is 1-25 with RBs in recent years, but Jenn was par in last.

Luna Queen (4) flattened out at even money, but that was with Dr. No (the thief) up, then was soundly beaten in 1OC for Schistl with Mitchell (2-53 in 2022) in the irons. It’s not looking good. Ferrer has only 3 wins in February and March. Schistl goes back to Ferrer, hoping the mare will demonstrate some muscle memory today.

Lapulga (6), once an on-demand bomb making machine, bombed only once in 1^st of 19 starts during the 20-21 meeting (and cost me a lot).  Dimmett has taken the old mare on the road, to Cnl (a -2 Class track) and Pid (a -1.5 Class track) with some luck, but recent history says it’s odds against today.

Exacta Key Box 5/2,4

2^nd – Rigattieri is 7 of 9 ITM in March with 4 Wins and John is 25 & 50 with Rightbacks. He’s 90% ITM if the top choice in this situation and his piece has the best Quirins in last two.

Bowersock is 5% Win with StRs and McGoey is 0-16 with same.

$5 Pick 3 – 3,6/4/All (14 bets)($70)

Saver DDs – 3,6/2,3 (4 bets) to cover

3^rd – Again it’s Rigatierri. John adds PTBs to his repertoire. He’s 28% Win with these at the meeting, while previously doing nothing with same. Only Girl (4) was par in last and was clearly 2^nd best.

Ferraro has no angle here, but he is 6 of 11 ITM in March at $7-1.

Exacta Key 4/2,3 and Saver Trifectas 4/1,6/2,3

4^th – “ALL” button looms large here.

Nunn is 9 of 14 ITM in March, but he has no record here with Long Layoffs and is 9% win with L/Os (of 60 days) at Mth, Pen & Lrl in L5.

See R2

5^th – Another “All” button candidate.

Schistl is always a threat. Machado has only claim on record here. Is that good or bad? Awilda’s Treasure (3) is soft on EP but goes for the hat trick. Sillaman’s piece was a dud at 15-1 in last. Granitz is only 12% with Non-shipping L1-3s. McGoey wowed us last year but has disappointed badly at the current meeting. Raymond was 2-49 OC historically, but is 5 of 8 ITM with 3 wins with this year. Waz is 29% ITM at 10-1 with Plain Shortenups but has no win angle.

Pass

6^th – In a field of rock bottom losers, Sette Stella (8) comes to the party with only one start over a FAST DIRT surface and that was in last, but it went 10 over par. When we buy a new car, they tell us not to punch it for the first 500 miles. I don’t know. Avila is 33 & 87 if favored here, so I suggest waiting to see where the smart money goes before deciding which way the wind blows.

If 8 is the favorite, then Exacta Key Box 8/4,5, otherwise

Trifectas 4,5,8/1,2,4,5,8/4,5,8 (24 bets)

$0.50 Pick 4 – 4,5,8/2,6,8/8/1,4,5,9,10 ($22.50)

7^th – 6,8/2,7,9/6,8 (6 bets)

8^th – I don’t have a crystal ball (hardly), but a game of cat and mouse appears likely here.  The 2, 5 & 8 will follow their instructions but what will they be? They could set a slow pace and all be there at the finish, or one or two could be sent. Either way, these three have distinguished themselves by the numbers. Camille doesn’t have the biggest number, but she was braking through the final 1/16^th in last and this is Bennett’s forte (Non-layoff 1OC).

Exactas 2,5/8 if alive in the Pick 4 to cover

9^th – See R6

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/23/2022

Damn near a whitewash on Sunday, as we came down with

a case of seconditis in the early play, and the late play ….

well, let’s just say we came down with a quick case of

fuggedaboutit ….today’s card looks very winnable, so 

we’ll play it smart and cheap ….BTW, the exodus back

to the Midwest has begun, and the Northeast won’t be

far behind

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 3, 6

3) 1, 4 **

4) 1, 3

5) 2, 3, 5, 6

                   $16.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 4, 5

7) 1, 6, 8, 10

8) 5, 7

9) 1, 10

                   $16.00

Best Bet *

*****

Wednesday, March 16^th

1^st – I can’t sort this one out. Ferraro has a 20 & 33 angle. Delgado has all 28% or > singles for Win. Dominguez is 11 & 37 with his angle (a 3% trainer). Adorno has come from out of nowhere with a solid showing. Guciardo (a game player) was par with Whistle Me Home two back, then tanked in next. Ditto for Schistl’s piece.

Pass

2^nd – Bennett is 36 & 79 with UCEs and I suspect that Baby Boomer (2) is the well-intended today. The other, hasn’t gotten it done at Tampa and won only one of eight off the claim and that won was one over (according to BRIS). Additionally, it has a 10% Win angle, making it a solid BET AGAINST. Baby Boomer has the following: Plain FBK 41% Win, TtoD 33 & 62, S/out if favorite 44% Win, FBK if favorite 47 & 79. Santos is 15 (4-1-2) recently.

Win 2 and Saver Exacta 4/2 to cover

3^rd – Go Time (7) was beaten by Whistle Me Home (See R1) and that one went -9 in next with a bias driven tailwind. How can that be overlooked?

Avila is 20 & 47 with FBKs and 36% Win with the 2L1-3 + 2S. He’s also 50% ITM with UCs at $13-1. Had a race over. Looks like he is likely pull the pin, but it may be a squib load.

Similarly, Avila has three > 50% ITM angles with Bodie Cody (1). Juan has tried the UCE only twice and had a winner and an ITM, with both ITM once.

Exacta Box 1,4,6 and Trifectas 6/All/1,4 (8 bets)

4^th – I’m going out on a limb here and call Bennett’s That’s All Shewrote (4) a FBK as there were no MC10 dashes in the past week with which to enter his claim. If you’ll entertain that notion, Gerry is 67 & 87 here. Again, I add that Santos has been hot recently.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,5,7

5^th – OFF THE TURF – Interesting motives here. None of the firsters trainers’ do anything with the FTT variety, but all are OK on the dirt, with Stewart, the one that stands out with OSTs (21 & 53). KOC is Neutral with OSTs, but Kathy is 27 & 47 with firsters on the dirt.

Delacour is 41 & 82 with UCEs. He’s 35% Win with the L1-3 + TtoD (see #8) and 26 & 48 with 2TSs and par with Long Layoffs.

Pass

6^th – Rigattieri has created a cottage industry out of PTBs recently. He’s now 28 & 48 with these in L2T. This one has four > 50% ITM singles. Spatz is 16% Win with this angle at GP and Monarch Stables was Win or Place in 4 of 9 here in L3.

Exacta Key Box 4/5,7,8

7^th – Exacta Box 2,5,7

8^th – It’s hard to imagine Imperial Brew (3), who made 102-95-99-98 in last four, not being there versus this weak field on 10Ks (in a par 100, most of which are also moving UC. Rini is 67% ITM OC here and has a 16 & 53 multiple angle.

Exacta Key Box 3/2,7 and Trifectas 2,3,7/5,8/2,3,7 (12 bets)

9^th – Rigattieri is 40 & 90 with OSTs and 27 & 56 with Plain Stretchout, but it has scratched. After the scratches, we are left with tepid interest in the 2, 4 & 6.

Exacta Box 2,4,6

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/16/2022

****

March 9^th

1^st – In a competitive field, Be Bop a Lola (4) moved way up in class and was not expected to do much on that move (2-19), drops today, and Nunn is 60% ITM if < 6-1 here.

Rigattieri is better than 50% ITM with his three singles.

Arnett is only 6 for 46 off the claim.

Pick 3 – 4,6/5/1,3 (4 bets) and Saver Trifectas All/4/6

2^nd – Delacour is 40 & 80 with UCEs and 58 & 94 with Non-shipping L1-3s that are the favorite.

Win 5

3^rd – Rarick is 1-45 with PTBs.

See R1

4^th – Ochoa goes off Ordonez for Camacho here (the first time he’s done so at the meeting), looks for 1^st win of 2022 and makes first start in almost 3 weeks. Something tells me he’s loaded for bear here.

$25 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/1,5 and

$1 Trifectas 1,5,6/2,7/1,5,6 (12 bets)($12)

5^th –Dominguez is 2-89 with FBKs. Dini is only 24% Win with Plain Favorites and that’s pretty bad.

Gimme Negrete. He’s 39% ITM with Plain Shortenups at average odds of $13.80-1 and his piece went +3,+3 in last. Won’t be a bomb, but could be the 3^rd choice.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 9/8,10 and

$0.50 Trifectas 8,9,10/3,5,6,(12)/8,9,10 (24 bets)(up to $12)

6^th – APD Rattlesnake Ridge (3) almost pulled it off in last and may be sent again for Schistl (26% Win angle). Big EP in sprint preceded Tapsolute’s (8) last win and he was just a click from par in last two.

Arnett is 3-28 with StRs. Bowersock is 6-80 with StRs.

$0.50 Pick 4 – 3,8/2,4,10/1,6,8/2,3 ($18)(perhaps a $125 return)

I hate betting against Kevin.

7^th – Danner is 3-44 with Shippers. Bennett is 13% with DtoTs. Ferraro is only 5% Win with Stretchouts.

Exacta Box 2,4,10

8^th – Bennett is 38 & 50 with the Turf to 7F dirt move and he’s 24% Win with RtSs and OC.

Carrasco Jr. is 18 & 41 with Plain Stretchouts and Lady Jean (6) has been very competitive.

Lerman’s piece raced against the bias in last and was par in previous. Roy is 12 & 48 with his angle.

$25 Exacta Box 1,3 and $15 Trifectas 1/6,8/3 ($30)

9^th – Blair is 33 & 63 with 2L1-3s and 3 of 4 ITM with FBKs, a rarely used move for him. Terlep has a $4700 EPS.

Smith is 38 & 62 with 3TTs.

Trifectas 2,3/1,4,6,9/2,3 (8 bets)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/09/2022

Stung again by yet another 4% LT “jock”, with the single in

late play, on Sunday …I’m 2 for 2, in that category, but

have I learned ?? …time will tell … interesting card this

afternoon, with some wide open races, so we’ll implore the

help of the racing gods again, as well as an experienced

pilot ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 5, 6

3) 3, 6, 7

4) 2, 6, 7

5) 2, 5

                  $ 18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 2, 5, 7

7) 2, 4, 10

8) 3 **

9) 2, 3, 6, 7

                  $ 18.00

Best Bet **

*****

Wednesday, March 2^nd

Big Jule: If it ever gets back to Chicago that I went to a prayer meeting, no decent person will talk to me. – Guys and Dolls, screenplay by Joseph L. Mankiewicz

1^st – Glyshaw is 67% ITM with his angle, but his piece made par only once (in last).

Exacta Key Box 1/2,4

2^nd – If favoritism is to Maricopa (3), then, Delgado has two distinct 48% Win angles here.

Nunn is 20 & 67 in 1^st 3 OC and 15 & 55 with Shortenups.

Action will determine the key here.

Exacta Key Box 3/4,7 if 3 is the top choice, otherwise

Exacta Key Box 7/3,4

3^rd – Both Nunn & Vinson have 50% ITM angles here, but Nunn’s piece made par in debut and returns to the right level and distance after testing the waters unsuccessfully in first 3 OC.

$25 DD 4/3

4^th – Rigattieri has been 31 & 46 with PTBs and he’s 23 & 53 with Shortenups. Spatz is 18 & 51 with this angle at Gulfstream. Mr. Bennett is 28 & 59 with Plain Dropdowns and presents the main threat.

Dini is 4% with No Changes, Wilson is 0% with StRs.

Win 3

$50 DD 3/6

5^th – This race draws several battle-hardened veterans and one of them is presumed to get to the circle.

Raven is 7 (4-1-0) in Turf dashes here.

Delgado is 27 & 67 1^st 3 OC and 30% Win with Dropdowns. I don’t know apprentice Franklin Calles, but it didn’t escape me that hit the board in only Tampa mount aboard Bionic Bottle and makes the 4-hour drive for this chance (and another for Delgado in the 8^th). However, the Panama native has no turf wins yet.

Fox Rox is a serial bad breaker, with five in L2T.

Saver Trifectas 2,4,5,7/6/2,4,5,7 to cover if alive in the DD

6^th – Carvajal Jr. has a lot to unpack here.  He’s 72% ITM in all starts at < 6-1 and 10 of 20 ITM with the TtoD + RtS move. He’s also 27 & 63 with Plain Class Changes.

Tsirigotis is 9 of 18 Win going longer at < 6-1.

Barboza Jr. is 23% win here and at GP with this angle.

Exacta Box 3,7,8

$1 Pick 4 – 3,7,8/1,5/1,4,5,6/9 (24 bets)($24)

$0.50 Pick 4 – 3,7,8/1,5/1/1,3,4,9,10 (30 bets)($15)

7^th – See R6

8^th – Bug boy Calles comes back to the dirt here and Delgado is 35% Win with FBKs and is 50% Win when not the favorite in this scenario.

Exacta Key Box 1/4,5,6

9^th – Exacta Key Box 9/1,3,4,10

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/02/2022

****

Wednesday, Feb. 23,2022

I’m gonna apply direct pressure in an effort to stop the bleeding, so I won’t have a free hand to go into my wallet today.

1^st – Earl Robinson bombed in 5 of 10 tries recently with the < 90 Days Rest + DC angle and McGoey is 25 & 67 with the 2S + 2PTB at < 6-1. The Other Cat (3) changed hands, so presumably, Robinson’s angle is dead in the water.

Mr. Bennett has an 11 for 108 weakness angle.

Arnett has a 28 & 56 angle and Morales has been ITM in 56% of all starts in February.

Weighted DD 1/All and Saver Exacta 3/1

2^nd – Robinson has another, but this one, while < 90 days rest, isn’t a distance change, but hey, this is not an exact science. Wetherington is 10 & 40 with FBKs and 7 & 19 with StRs. For a 2% trainer, these are some of her best angles.  Schistl has no career wins with UCEs in 6 tries but he is 4 of 6 ITM.

See R1

3^rd – Ryan is 46 & 85 with UCEs. I’ll take the Stonestreet (EPS $33K) firster if it goes, otherwise I’m not afraid of Afraid Not (10). Ryan is 14 (1-2-1) with the FTS + FTT and Medaglia D’Oro has been a 15% sire here for the past decade.

Granitz is having his best meeting ever and he is 3-9 ITM with the FTS +FTT angle. One of these days Alice!

Miss Lady L (2) was closest to par among these dogs and Bowen has been reliable when the top choice, with 7 of 8 ITM and 3 Wins.

Exacta Box 2,7,11 if Zena Crown is in, otherwise

Trifecta Box 2,7/2,3,5,7/2,3,5,7 (12 bets)

4^th – Loved Again (5) caught my eye. This one stays with Newtown Anner Stud (EPS $8246) and has been working on the grounds nearly every week since Dec. 12^th. Vera, the original trainer is 18 & 44 lifetime with this angle and the Hemingway’s (if you’ll buy into that) are 30 & 70 with UCEs.

This is the kind Sweezey bombs with and Dr. No turns it up for a price, but Sweezey’s also 64% ITM with the S + Dropdown when < 6-1.

Exacta Box 4,5 and Trifectas 4,5/3,8/3,4,5,6,7,8 (16 bets)

5^th – McGaughey is 35 & 61 in 23 tries with his angle and is the one to beat.

Win 4

6^th – Lovers At Midnight (9) ducked at the start then raced wide early and still made a +5 in debut while battling for the show.

Hardesty has been having some luck. She’s 7 (2-0-2) with her angle.

Negrete has a fire under his ass. He’s 4 of last 5 ITM at average odds of 40-1. You’ve heard the TV pitchmen say “this won’t last long”, but this really won’t!

Trifectas 6,9/3,5,8,10/6,9

Pick 3 – 6,9/12/1,2

7^th – The AE, Ludo (12) is likely to have that powerful angle going for Delacour 16 for 16 ITM with 11 Wins if the favorite in this scenario. Ludo was par two back and close to par three back.

DDs 12/1,2

If the 12 is out, then Trifecta Box 4,5,8,9

8^th – Reliable Pablo Morales sticks on the RB for Nunn here. Loud n’ Proud (1) has been par or close to par in all three tries. Arnett’s piece looks alright and he might be holding a grudge today.

Exacta Box 1,2

9^th – Blair has several angles here:

Non-shipping L1-3   62% ITM

Dropdown + Shortenup   60% ITM &

Shortenup (if the favorite)   43% & 87%

Oldtimer Bill Deaton started his career when Jimmy Carter was President and America was listening to Andy Gibb on the radio singing Shadow Dancing. He is 20 & 70 here with FTTs and gets Morales in the irons today.

Wesley Ward’s piece rounds it out and he’s got 2019’s Outstanding Apprentice Jockey Kazushi Kimura (EPS $7000) up.

Exacta Box 3,6 and Trifectas 3,6/1,2,4,8,9/3,6 (10 Bets)

*****

Wednesday, Feb. 16^th

On Sunday in 2^nd, we watched Grandmary leave the gate as the favorite only to see her become the second choice after a ¼ mile. So many of my plays are “conditional” and often dependent upon favoritism, so this creates a real quagmire. I’m not going to abandon the angle, but I am gonna tweak it a bit. Going forward, when favoritism is a condition, that choice will have to be the solid favorite, maintaining a 5% Win pool advantage above the rest at the time the bell rings (i.e. if the pool is $150K, our choice must be the top choice by at least $7500 when they are in the gate.) This will not eliminate the Grandmary scenario completely, but it will eliminate most of the conjecture. (BTW, we missed out on a $362 tri in that race after Grandmary was erroneously identified as the favorite, as our alternative play clicked).

1^st – KOC has the ROI. Plus 29% with this type and 27 & 46 stats. Kathy’s also 32 & 71 with UCEs. O’connell’s gone to Diaz Jr. 10X more often than Castillo and that may have you leaning towards the 7.

Exacta Key Box 7/1,5 and Trifectas 1,5,7/6,8/1,5,7 (6 bets)

2^nd – Unlike Mr. Pick Four, I don’t have the obligation to make impossible choices and I shall not.

Pass

3^rd – Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Trifectas 2,5,6/3,7,8/2,5,6 (18 bets)

4^th – A bunch of trainers have been interested in I Kickin (4) and Schistl was got him very close to par in first try off the claim. He’s 26% Win in Dirt Sprints here.

Win 4 and Exactas 4/2,7,10

$0.20 Pick 6 – 4/3,4,6/5/6/3,5,6,7,8,9/All ($36)

5^th – McGaughey is 32 & 59 on the grass here. Clearly is well intended.

Delacour is 48 of 76 ITM on the Rightback.

I found only one Shipper + FBK in the last 5 years for Mr. Bennett and it was a winner. Hmmmm…..

Exacta 3/6 and Trifecta 3/4/6

6^th – Two of three claimed from Sweezey have won in a couple of tries and Carrasco Jr. is 33 & 50 off the claim on the dirt here.

DD 5/6

7^th – I usually don’t listen to the replays, but watching Wasser’s (6) last, the sound happened to be left on. Beemie was saying that Wasser was “buried in traffic and losing lots of ground” (in the far turn), something that was not immediately evident to me without the benefit of binoculars. The filly was still close to par (-2), despite the trouble.  Owner’s Lael Stables (winners of the 2006 Kentucky Derby with Barbaro) are 24% Win here in L3T. ML of 6-1 is insane and at those odds the bet will grow.

Motion is 1-47 with his angle.

Bennett’s piece went 72 early is a par 85 in last but finished with a par final fraction and he has solid singles here.

Best Bet 6 Win

8^th – See R4

9^th – See R4

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/16/2022

*****

Wednesday, Feb. 9^th

1^st – Tale of VK (2) showed the best early speed in the field two back at 7F and has had good fortune on this surface. Ochoa has been ITM in 4 of last 7 @ 9-1 odds and is par with Plain Stretchouts.

Trifectas 2,6/3,4/2,3,4,6 (8 bets)

2^nd – I figure favoritism will be to Arriagada as he’s having his best meeting ever at Tampa. He’s 75% ITM if such is the case. Juan is 26 & 58 with Plain Shortenups and Native Hawk (3) has been delivering at this level (or close to it) for the last 30 months. I don’t use the Nolan Ryan analogy very often, but this 10 year-old has earned it.

Dini is 3-49 off the claim.

Arnett is 7% Win with UCEs (keeping in mind that that’s actually 3.5% win for each, given that it’s two chances to double your pleasure, double your fun).

Exacta 3/6 and Trifecta 6/3/4

3^rd – OFF THE TURF- With nearly a half inch of rain in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by a high of 60 on Wednesday, they are off the turf as of Tuesday afternoon.

Hamm is 42 & 86 in UCEs, but only 4 for 64 with StRs here.

Quick Hit (6) raced on a Solid Rail Day, making a +7 after 6F while outside. Nunn is 30 & 50 with FBKs and he has been 4 for 6 ITM with 2 Wins recently.

Dini is 30 & 60 with OSTs, but is an MTO an OST? Well, technically not, but one could make the argument that the intention is to face off with turf runners on the dirt and it also offers the cover of an inflated turf claiming price. Surely MC16s on the Turf are no better than MC10s on the dirt. Mike is also 29 & 48 with UCEs, but the 12 will have to draw in before we have that condition. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Cedar Beach (11) is the presumed favorite and rightly so.

Exacta Box 6,11 and Trifectas 6,11/3,7,10/6,11 (6 bets) 

4^th – With only 3 winners from 31 starters, Axmaker’s 3 wins produced an ROI of 100% with 47% of them ITM.

Arnett is 11 & 33 with Plain Stretchouts and Kenai Cool’s (2) two starts were close to par and Morales has been ITM in 10 of last 17.

Lapulga (6) is an old Tampa veteran, but she hasn’t been ITM here in 27 months.

Bennett’s last bomb was three weeks ago and he’s due, but he’s < 15 % win when not the favorite.

Sundrenched (1) surprises now and then.

Trifecta Box 1,4,5,7

Long Game Special (but not for me):

$0.20 Saver Pick 6 – 2,5/All/6/All/4,5/2 (to a maximum bet of $39.20)(See R6)

5^th – OFF THE TURF – Manning is 25 & 75 in OSTs. Maybe that was the plan. Dennis is above par with his three singles too.

Smith may be thinking the same thing. His Asters D’oro (3) certainly fits off last two par efforts.

Avila is 35 & 60 in OSTs, if it goes, watch out.

Carvajal Jr. is OST neutral, but that’s not a bad thing. He was killing it when < 6-1 in L5T (27% Win) but is 0-14 at this meeting in such circumstances but remains 64% ITM with the angle.

With four contenders identified, I’m thinking “hit the All button” and let the scratches sort things out.

$50 Weighted DDs All/6

6^th – Bennett’s L’il Miss Camille (6) went +15 +3 in debut and drops to Gerry’s safety zone of $25K. Looks very tough to beat here and shouldn’t get claimed for $25,000.

Exactas 6/2,3,7

Long Game Special Part Deux:

$100 Weighted Pick 3 – 6/All/7 (Weighted to the DD probables)(# of bets to be determined) (only if still alive in the Pick 6)

7^th – OFF THE TURF – Another OST but I have nothing good to say about it. After the scratches, we’ll make a weighted all.

See R4 & R6

8^th – I try hard to “never mind the bollocks” when it comes to UK native Georgina Baxter, but the Ziadie connections and repeated medication violations make it easy to speculate as to how this South Florida based trainer has achieved her Jamie Ness-like record. It is what it is… She’s 44 & 77 in 9 tries off the claim in Florida and 48% Win with this angle here at Tampa Bay Downs.

Mr. Bennett is 24 & 54 with Plain Shortenups and as the BF.

Vinson’s piece faced a weak field in last and switches to Dr. No who he’s had little success with.

McCarthy is 15 & 33 off the claim with a +$1.47 ROI. This UC move looks more proforma then well-intentioned but Brenda has the receipts (as they say).

Ochoa is 47% ITM with the DC + Dropdown, but this one has been overreaching also.

Trifectas 5,7/3,4,6/5,7

9^th – OFF THE TURF – Schistl, Weaver and Lecesse all go better on the dirt than on the grass.

Sweezey has done nothing with OSTs.

Potts is loyal to HVG, who has Potts’ mount in R3. Ron is 0-12 with others up at the meeting (and that’s generally how its been going for years).

Long Game Special Final:

Trifectas 1,3,6,8,9/2/1,3,6,8,9 (20 bets) to cover today’s action, if still alive in the Pick 6

*****

1^st – There are no winning angles in this one. McGoey’s piece went +9 early at 24-1 in turf debut, but that surface was very slow that day and I don’t know what to make of it. Ferraro is 47% ITM with UCEs and has a 47% ITM angle, the Plain FBK with Starship Precious (2). Hall’s piece has only two possible reasons for coming back fast: Carla’s Honor (8) is warmed up and ready or the Secretary needed help filling. 33% of the Dirt Sprints have had 7 or fewer starters, so I’m thinking it’s the former.

Exacta Box 2,4,8

2^nd – Eros’s Girl (4) surprised at 38-1 with an above par effort (+3,+2) at this level two races back. The filly came up empty in the Gasparilla, but was reentered just 11 days later versus the boys, no less, before Ferraro got spooked by the entry of Morgan Point, a Pasco Stakes also ran, who won that N1X at even money, precipitating the Vet Scratch that day. Six days later, the girls get their own N1X and she appears yet again. Ferraro bombs with Class Changes and Shortenups and this 3YO adds Lasix (L1). She may have climaxed (no pun intended) while restless and waiting in her stall, but Eros’ arrow has hit its target, and I think I’m in love with this filly (or at the very least, smitten)!

Conditional $100 Win 4 for > 2-1 or

Weighted DDs 4/All (wherever the value is) for > 2-1

Saver Exactas 1,6/4 to cover

3^rd – See R2

4^th – Rattlesnake Ridge (6) was an APD at this distance at the last meeting, but has never come close to winning off the L1-3 in 7 tries lifetime.

Ten-year-old Sourcesandmethods (7) hasn’t been in the winner’s circle for 23 months.

In the mindf@$k entry of the card (#2), we offer two scenarios:

Arriagada looks to make Fortunate Friends eligible for the SALW5 condition for the next year (he’s 3-3 ITM with the OC + Dropdown in L5T but with no wins) or

Juan took the bait and made a bad claim and looks to cut his losses today.

Exacta Box 1,2,8

5^th – Barbazon III may be fooling the crowd, but he’s not fooling us. This bastard has put over 9 lightly raced bombs here that were beaten by an average of 20 lengths in their previous starts. Cardoso can dig down deep and pull one out of his ass today (he is 6 & 24 on the lawn lifetime).

$10 ATB 4

6^th – Dr. No finds another rube to explain away his loss to, this time the victim is Caramori. I bet he’s even better at his line of bullshit, then he is at making races look close. The shorter the price, the worse Go Time’s (1) chances.

Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2,3/1,6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8 (24 bets)

7^th – Escobar made her only Turf Dash win in L5T in last. A rightback win will be a heavy lift.

Princess Livia (4), an APD at 6F last meeting, appears to have gone wrong and Padilla is 0-8 with none ITM with 2TTs.

Pimental is 0-23 with DtoTs, with none ITM. Galvan is 0-26 with 2L4-8s.

Blair is the guy here. He’s 5 for 11 ITM with 3 bombs with the L4-8 + S and 26% Win on the Dropdown here. With an EPS of $4500, owner JC Terlep has expectations, I’m sure.

$10 ATB 3

8^th – As bad as it looks, Into Paradise (6) must key the play with a 36 & 63 angle for Ryan. Derek has gone to Santos 21 times win L5T with 8 finishing ITM and the trainer has a healthy average ITM odds of $5.70-1.

Exacta Key Box 6/1,5,7 and 1,5,7/2,3,8,9/6 (12 bets)

9^th – I was hoping to key on Lady Jean (6) here, as the 5YO’s Quirins have been on the steady improve, but 5F Turf Dash win here last April went 7 over today’s par, and that’s a about 8 lengths slower than what will be needed today.

Trifecta Box 1,2,3,6

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/02/2022

********

Wednesday, Jan 26^th

I got that hankering for some action satisfied on Sunday, but that’s about all I got. So it goes…

The odds are gonna determine my action today. Follow me on twitter @tamselections.

1^st – Bennett is now 36 & 79 with UCEs, but both of these may have a hard time trying to rally from mid-pack in the soup today. Bennett is 75% ITM with Jo Jo Katz’s (5) angle in 20 tries and JoJo had a rough trip in last. Last Promise (1) likes the front but will have to get off the rail quickly to remain in contention.

Exacta Key Box 5/1,4

Pick 3 – 1,4,5/1,6/All (30 bets)

2^nd – Camacho has 22 OFF TRACK wins recently and Woodard is 15 & 29 with his angle and was closest to par in last.

Bennett was 10 over par in last two. Escobar is 2-125 with her angle. Hamm is ice cold. Rodriguez is 5% with firsters and Ryan is 3-44 with 2TSs here.

Exacta Box 1,6

3^rd – Dini is 43% Win in OSTs and his piece was above par for Total Energy in last. Granitz is 31 & 62 in OSTs, but was sub-par (-11,-4) in first try. Lopez is 1-11 ITM with FTS + FTT, but that one was just nosed out at 10-1. In 2021, Lopez had a FTS on the Dirt ITM at 11-1 and Centeno was up on that one too. Both of the aforementioned were owned by Gelfenstein Farm and it has a healthy EPS of $7231. Centeno has 15 OFF TRACK Wins recently.

See R1

4^th – McGaughey is 0-5 with the FTS + Dirt angle here in L5T, which begs the question: Why send a million dollar baby to Tampa to race for a $16,000 check, when there are so many other, better purses to be had?

Harty has finally woken up with two winners in January. He’s 62% ITM with Plain Starters. This move looks right. Candy Ride has 16.3% Winners here, putting him in the Top 10 among Tampa Sires.

Carvajal Jr. has no loyalty to a particular pilot, but apprentice Arroyo doesn’t do it for me with Expect to Be Ready (4)moving UC after a -8 first try.

Win 5

5^th – OFF THE TURF – Motion presents with a dilemma. He’s 45 & 82 with OSTs, but only 2% Win with Non-shipping L1-3s.

Barboza Jr. is 8 (2-1-3) with this angle and 26 & 60 at GP in L5 with the same angle.

Bowersock without that anchor dragging her down is like a new woman and she was already 26% Win Off the Claim here (on Opening Day).

Weighted DDs 3,6/1,3,6

6^th – Ferraro and Stewart both come back fast after satisfactory performance in the Pasco Stakes. The former is 14 for 30 ITM with FBKs at 9-1 odds, and the latter is 28 & 67 with the same angle. Ferraro’s piece got some help from the bias on Dec. 24^th and Scaldaferri in the mud is a question mark? Camacho (and Dr. No) have been the best on an OFF TRACK here in recent years.

Arnett is 17 & 34 with his multiple angle.

Exacta Box 1,3,6

7^th – OFF THE TURF – Avila is 50 & 83 in OSTs and 5-7 ITM with PTBs (something new for him). Camacho is up.

Dini is 43 & 71 in OSTs and Fast Fashion (8) was above par in two of last three on the lawn.

Pick 4 – 1,3/6,8/5,6,7/6,9,10 (36 bets)

8^th – Nunn is 0-4 with the Dropdown + 1OC and he goes off a leader. That said, Arnett had 18 claimed from him here in Oldsmar and none were duds, with 7 of then winning in just a couple of tries. I don’t know…

Rigattieri stills looks for first win. He’s 67% ITM with Plain FBK + Dropdown, but Doddle Hopper (7) broke badly 5 times recently and has gone 6 without one. Its really the end of the line for this oldtimer. Fun fact: Last time Morales was up on Doodle Hopper, he refused to break.

Dr. No may get a price here and he wins on OFF TRACKs. Gemo (5) had a little help by being in the sweet spot late on Dec. 24^th (a solid rail day) and poor record dims our interest, but 4-1 would be fair.

Exacta Box 5,6,7

9^th – OFF THE TURF – Front runners have won 4 of 20 of the Dirt Marathons in the past 10 years, so it’s a helluva lot better than on the grass. Zippy Luna Queen (6) was an Above Par Dueler (APD) on the Turf last season. Schistl is 14 & 57 with this angle.

The 9 & 10 are cheap, but horses go up the mountain before coming down on the other side. Both Arriagada and Ward with TtoDs but are not particularly good with OSTs.

Exacta Box 6,9,10

******

Wed. Jan 19^th at Tampa

When I get a bee in my bonnet, there is no stopping until there are some answers. On the subject of Pick 4s, I stand corrected. Mr. Pick Four’s budget plays are a good value after all.

The median Pick 4 last year was $320.

The Ranges of the Pick 4’s was as follows:

35% were between $14 – $200

43% were between $201 – $1000

16% were between $1001 – $5000 and

6% were > $5001

1^st – The Arnetts have an IV of 0.64 with UCEs. Rarick is 16 & 37 with RBs. Nunn’s claim is 2 for 2 here and 6-7 ITM at this level recently. McGoey wakeup continues. Monica is 7 of last 11 ITM, is 60% ITM with FBKs and 24% Win with Stretchouts. You will be so lucky if she is in your exotic play.

Exacta Box 3,7 and Saver Trifectas 3,7/1,2,5/3,7 (6 bets)

2^nd – Papa Luke (7) tried to steal it at 20-1 in 1^st try of the meeting, then tanked for 3-1 on the Dropdown. 41 of 67 of Raymond’s recent bombs have been at 6F or related distances. I can smell this one.

Tamara Levy only makes 100 or less starts each year, but has a couple of Layoff Bombs at GP recently. Tamara and McGoey have been known to conspire in the past.

McAllen’s piece was there on the FBK after solid against the bias effort on 12/24 despite tough start. Game close puts it in the mix again today (and rested this time).

Exacta 2,5,7 and Saver Trifectas 1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7/2,5,7 (18 bets)

3^rd – Delgado/McGoey connection is unclear here, but it attracts our interest.  Both trainers had a runner in the December 23^rd race and it appears that the up close bomb got some help from Delgado’s piece which tanked at 3.70-1. This 3YO 1^st Lasix runner by top Turf Sire Animal Kingdom, goes for Delgado today and he is 24 & 51 with all turf starters in L5T.

Casse is 1-27 with DtoTs here. Adorno makes her 1^st Turf start ever.

Weighted DDs 1/All (only cover the bet with the 3 in R4)

4^th – A lightly raced filly goes better than a C16N2L in maiden win and comes Rightback for $2K less…..makes no sense & creates an awesome opportunity for Dr. No to take a dive at 3 to 5.

See R3

5^th – Bennett has a rare bet against, the DtoT + Dropdown and a 1-24 record.

Again, we have the McGoey/Levy connection. Monica is 25 & 67 with the 2S + 2PTB, and those Levy bombs I mentioned earlier were both on the grass (albeit Layoffs).

Wirth is hanging on by a thread, but comebacks do happen.

Barker has had no starters here, but competence travels well.

Exacta Box 5,8,9 and Trifectas 5,8,9/11,12,13/5,8,9 up to 18 bets

6^th – Bennett has yet another bet against, this time the 2L1-3 + No Class Change. Gerry is only 11% Win with these.

Caught Up In You (4) is reliable and Raymond is 31% ITM at 10-1 with Plain No Class Change types.

Ward gets an upgrade for going back to his regular boy, Ferrer on the Rightback.

Campell’s Feeling Mischief (6) made today’s par as a 3YO and without the juice.

Exacta Box 3,4,6

Pick 4 – 3,4,6/6/2,6,7/1,7,9,10 (36 bets)

Pick 3 – 3,4,6/All/6 (27 bets)

7^th – If you twisted my arm, I’d have to say Thenorthremembers (6).

See R6

8^th – Feliciano’s very best angle is the FBK (37 & 47) and he’s 80% ITM with UCEs, leaving us with a compulsory play, regardless of the outcome.

Exactas 6/2,7 and Saver Trifectas 6/1,8/2,7 (4 bets)

9^th – Trifecta Box 1,7,9,10

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 01/19/2022

******

Wednesday, Jan. 12^th 2022

Two apparently related conditions are presently occurring simultaneously. The dirt surface has been slow by an average of 5+ clicks every day for the last six race days & PP1 is only 1-24 during the same period.

1^st – Wilson’s Hot and Heavy (3) got no action on the big dropdown, then gave way. He’s < 2% Win with Shortenups.

Pick 3 – 5,6,7/All/8 (24 bets)

2^nd – Waz and Spanabel made 4 bombs in 9 tries (big ones too)! Woodard is 15 & 29 with his angle but this recent purchase looks like it came from the bargain basement. Negrete is now 5 for 8 ITM with UCEs. Carrasco Jr.s piece looks OK but the TtoD + RtS is usually it’s own angle if the trainer is any good at it. Bennett is always a threat with PTBs (21% Win). Dolcisima (6) (the Sweetest) was 6 better than par two back.AM Rodriguez is also 15% Win with his angle.

All (8)

3^rd – Ubide has no angle here, but had no angle in last either and was still closest to today’s par among these and with a +3 final fraction. Poseidon is the God of Sea, Earthquakes and Horses. Let’s see if this horse can create some seismic waves near the wire today with Morales up.

Win 8

4^th – When a horse is claimed right back in its next start, I think of it more like it went on vacation and has simply returned. Castle King (1) showed little in first try after his vacation, but comes out of a good race that saw Allen up for 2^nd in an N1X next time out and Roaring River win a C16N3L in next. Bowersock sans Allen Jr has been a winning formula. PP1 may be a victim to current surface conditions which are a bit topsy turvy presently.

Himelstein (3) was exiled to the region known for its world-renowned Rieslings and popped again for a nickel, but I don’t see another winning effort here in Oldsmar, despite solid showing in first try. KOC is 50% ITM with the 2L1-3 + 2PTB.

Another (4) Posieden could create some aftershocks.

1,4,8 Tirfectas 1,4,8/All/3 (18 bets)

5^th – Brown won on the RB + UC with Bleeker Street and wiping out one of my plays, but I say again, it doesn’t look right here either. Chad is only 6-38 with this move and he already got one.

Clement is 32% Win with L4-8s and Mott hasn’t missed the board with a 2L4-8 here as Delacour babysits for Winstar and Mott. I’m not calling it a PTB (although technically it is, of course).

Delacour is 14% Win with Layoffs that are not the favorite.

3,7 and Trifectas 3,7/2,4,6/3,7 (6 bets)

6^th – My trip notes say that Dr. No dogged it on Gone Dreaming (2) in last and further indicates backing today only with a pilot change. KOC and Gallardo team has an IV < 0.57.

Carrasco Jr. is 45% Win with 2L1-3 + Stretchout types and he bombs with them too.

Win 6

7^th – KOC is 31 & 72 with UCEs, but we just spoke about her love/hate relationship with Gallardo and the other is a 2S + Surface Change and she has an IV of 0.37 with that type.

3,7,8

8^th – Arnett is a negligible 8% Win with UCEs, but both of these have 80% ITM angles.

4,6,8 and Trifectas 4,6,8/2,3,4,6,8/2,3,4,6,8 (36 bets)

9^th – Clark has divested the 1 and has the 2 going in 2^nd off the claim. Dr. No could screw them both over. Your guess is as good as mine, but the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry…

Baxter is 0-4 with Layoffs in Turf Routes. Just sayin…

4,5,10 and Saver Trifectas 1,2,3/4,5,10/4,5,10 (18 bets).

*******

Wednesday, Jan. 5^th

1^st – Roaring River (2) trailed to the far turn after breaking in the air, then outfinished Savy Layla (3) who had a front running trip and was satisfied to go with the -9 EP.

KOC has four distinct ITM angles and Broadway Pete (4) has won going 5.5F. Could be ready or may need one.

DDs 2,4/6

2^nd – It isn’t very often that a horse could be beaten by 10 and still have finished above today’s par, but Maclean’s Bella (6) went +4,+1 in last. Axmaker can bomb with lightly raced types and Shortenups, but I think the crowd will be on to this one on the Dropdown.

Win 6 and Exacta 6/1,3

3^rd – Morici’s piece is 2-2 ITM over FAST dirt, she’s 63% ITM here with this angle and First Gold (1) is the only one to make par recently. PP1 continues to outperform in dirt sprints with a current IV of 1.54 at the meeting.

Win 1

4^th – The class gap in fractional times among rock bottom maidens going 8.5F is 12 clicks (versus MC25s) while at 7F it is more linear at only five clicks. Thawed (8) went + 9 early in last, creating a chaos race where they were spread out by 11 lengths when they reached the stretch and the two leaders looked like they were having severe asthma attacks by the time they reached the 1/16^th pole. I’m honestly surprised that Schistl would bring back Thawed in just seven days after that effort, but he is 13 (5-3-2) in dirt sprints while I’m 0 (0-0-0).

According to Horsestreet, Fancysoul (2) made above par EPs in all her 8.5F starts except for the last one before shipping (how convenient).

Pass the Salsa (5) was saved in last after seeing the writing on the wall. She was sub-par in previous, but doesn’t have to beat much.

Exacta Key Box 2/3,5

5^th – Spanabel on a FTT can’t get my support (yet). Josefa (5) was beaten by at least three N3Ls in last. Luna Queen (8) has never been close to par on the grass.

Trifecta Box 1,3,6,9 (24 bets)

6^th – I’m not one to rant, but now and then it’s appropriate. Bowersock is 46 & 62 since Allen Jr. has been put on the shelf. When he was her regular rider, they were 7.8% Win and 27% ITM at the same point at the past five meetings. Now, his personal struggles are no secret, but I always assumed that when he was in the irons, he was giving 100%. It’s beginning to look like we were all taken for an (Indy) ride, so to speak.

McGoey wakeup is in full swing. She is 3 of last 4 ITM. Her piece improved sharply in 2^nd try and has the PP1 advantage today and Monica outperforms with her three angles here.

Nick the Cardshark came rightback to win on New Year’s Day for $6250, giving Highland Park Hero (2), a horse that likes Tampa, a bit of a bump.

When observing an entry for Susan Arnett (see R4 on Friday), a quick Google search revealed a story by our own Mike Henry wherein he interviews the Arnett’s about their move to Tampa. What stayed with me was Jon talking about how he won’t enter them off the claim unless they are in “tip top” shape. Well, if we saw Firehorn’s (8) best on 12/18 then Delgado should be beaten today. Now that I read this story, I’m gonna be putting all of Arnett’s claims through that scrutiny. We’ll see what happens…

Exacta Key Box 1/2,3

Pick 4 – 1,2,3/9/3,4,5,6/1,4,9 (36 bets)

Pick 4 – 1/1-7/4,5/1,4,9 (42 bets)

7^th – If you stay at it long enough, you just might gain some credibility. I’m in year 16 of my (official) journey and still nearly as obscure as the day I started. Such is not the case however for Waz, Dini 2.0 and Ocala’s very own Johnny Collins, three men who have greatly improved their standing in our game in the last few years. Stuie (9) was par in last two and has a clean record.

Win 9

8^th – Ferrer is Ward’s rider in Tampa, so switch to Dr. No and Ferrer sticking on Russo’s piece has gotten my attention. Fan Fan (5) surprised in last two and very well may surprise again today.

Exacta Key Box 5/3,4,6

9^th – Andry Blanco was 50% ITM lifetime as an Owner, then decided to cut out the middle-man and got his Trainer’s License last year, and is, get this, 40 (7-8-5) already. Bartender, I’ll have what he’s having!

Ochoa is 33 & 67 with FBKs (15 tries) and 10 & 33 with Stretchouts. He has bombed consistently with Plain Distance Change types for several years now too.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 1,4,9

 

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 01/05/2022

Well, ….maybe that’s all I’ll say about Sunday’s fiasco…

however, Camacho continues to confound , as he gets a flat

out zero from 2 racetime favs ….head scratcher …today,

we have races written strictly for just turned 3YO’s, most

still looking for their niche …could be a massacre of sorts

…………..good luck in here …

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 1, 5, 6

3) 1, 6

4) 3, 5

5) 1, 8, 9

                   $ 18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 1, 2, 3

7) 3, 4, 5

8) 1, 5

9) 4**, (12)

                   $9.00 ($18.00)

*****

Wednesday, Dec. 29^th

Spanabel strikes again with $100 FTS from Smith. Schistl had two short-term bomb cycles at the last meeting (of 3 and 5) and he’s got five lightly raced types in there today. The question is: Can he still bomb or do the sharks have his number? The Pick 5 & Pick 6 pots are beginning to get my attention but finding a couple of singles today may require Carnac the Magnificent.  My Dad is 86 today. Happy Birthday Baba!

1^st – U Know I B Lion (7) went -4 in last, but comes out of a race where the 1^st & 3^rd finishers were 8 for 23 Win in 2021. Conversely, Glory Roll (3) went 3 clicks better but the 1^st and 3^rd finishers in that race are 1 for 21 in 2021.

PID shippers had an IV of 0.58 last season and this one’s (1) transmission has been slipping for a year.

Exacta Box 3,7

2^nd – Favoritism is often a critical factor when playing Delgado who has a UCE here (28 & 86). The Quirins hint that the 3 is the live one here after making big EP in last. Both are from top ten stable of Carole Star, but neither has one of Delgado’s preferred boys up.

91% of these dashes are won from < 2.5 BL at the 2^nd Call and that creates a problem for Catirusia (5).

Exacta Key Box 3/6,7

3^rd – Pass

4^th – The 1 & 4 were above par for total energy in last. The 2 & 3 have trainers that win with firsters and 2YOs. Wilson has no record with UCEs and only 3 of 14 claimed from Hamm here have won in first three tries. Wilson is ok off the claim but is 0-15 with No Changes. Would you call this a No Change? I am.

Trifecta Box 1,2,3,4

$0.20 Pick 6 – 1,2,3,4/1,5,6/1,5,7/7,8/3/2,8 ($28.80)

5^th – Tapsasional (1) went +14, +7 in last. Most of the field made next start at the N1X level again. Saucy Derek, however, dropped to an N3L and was an up-close 3^rd.  Bennett has a 64% ITM angle here, but none for win, but first try at this level in a year gets some respect. I’ve spent too much time on Reiner’s (2) last. Looked good on paper, but none produced afterward. Rigattieri was 21 & 50 here in L3T, 0-6 start means nothing. He as a 25 & 58 angle going, the Plain UC. Manning is 48 & 74 with his angle, gotta love that off the long layoff. Nunn on the RB could blow it up, but I think not.

Exacta Box 1,5,6 and Saver Trifectas 1,5,6/3,4/1,5,6 (12 bets)

6^th – Common sense says 1, 5 & 7.  Schistl often surprises and Dalton Lawrence has a history of bombing with Plain Distance Changes.

Exacta Box 1,5,7 and Trifectas 1,5,7/3,4,6/1,5,7 (18 bets)

7^th – Blair’s piece went +2,+5 in last and he tries on the RB, this time for $4k EPS owners Terlep & Bradley.  Irazu (8) made some big numbers versus better than these.

If alive in the Pick 6 after three legs… $3 Saver Pick 3 – 7,8/2,5,8,10/2,8  (16 bets)($48)

8^th – IMO, Arriagada is the closest thing to a reliable single on the card. Juan is 44 & 66 with TtoD + Dropdown types and is 4-15 Win with the 2S + 2PTB angle. Ten-pound allowance won’t hurt either going 8.5F.

Conditional $50 Win 3 for 5-2

9^th – We project this field to be 4 above par, more like an N4L then a legit N1X. From this perspective, the 2,4,5 & 8 come more clearly into focus.

Schistl is a dangerous S.O.B.

McAllen’s Our Destiny (4) has some big numbers on the NYRA circuit, but he doesn’t have much luck off the claim and goes to 4.7% Turf rider (in L4) Olaf Hernandez.

McCarthy more than doubles her ordinary strike rate with FBKs, but that ain’t saying much, however, my notes say she bombed seven times with Ferrer up in L3T.

Classy Fox Rox (8) is the obvious one to beat, but alas, the 10YO is a notorious bad breaker and may just beat himself.

If alive in the P6 or the P3 –  Exactas 4,5/2,4,5,8 (6 bets) to cover all of today’s action.

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/29/2021

Guessing the day after doldrums got to me on

Sunday…. I’d be remiss if I didn’t give a hearty

shout out to my buddy Sky Spanabel who lopsided

the tote board in the finale to the tune of 49-1!!

Not surprising, as she seems to make a habit of

this whenever she sets up shop at a new venue…

it’s not a fluke, as this little gal can ride with

the best of them, and she only seems to get

better all the time …Way to go, Skyler !! ….

as a PSA, yuz guyz better keep an eye on her !!

Back to the bitness at hand …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 3, 6, 7

3) 1** 

4) 1, 6

5) 2, 3, 4, 6

                   $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 1, 3

7) 4, 6, 8, 10

8) 3, 7

9) 4, 8, 9

                   $24.00

Best Bet **

*****

Wednesday, Dec. 22^nd

The depth of my action plays today reveal the level of ambivalence I’m experiencing with this card. Perhaps a gift will come to us as we get closer to the Yuletide.

1^st – Poole’s Sundrenched (1) got insane action in last and ended up a long neck 3^rd to Fun Paddy (3) in last. The writing was on the wall. I suspect the cycle of deception will reset today. Bennett has gone to Mike Allen just once in L2T (on Mambo Dancer’s last start) but Mike did bomb with her for Rarick. Avila is 75% ITM with his angle. Schistl is full of surprises and went fast early in last (on the lawn). Arnett has a 75% ITM angle with the 6, but he usually sticks to leaders. Holy Diver (7) won in 2^nd time over here last year.

Pick 3 – All/1,2,4/5,6 (42 bets)

2^nd – Pharaoh’s Fashion (3) made today’s par in FTS maiden win, but set a slow early pace, while the 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th choices in that race are now 0-25 combined. Nevertheless, he has not missed the board with a UCE yet, upgrading the 4 here. Bennett’s PTB Peacelovenkarma (6) faced cheapies in last. I’m not liking it.

Manning is 50 & 73 with his multiple angle.

Morici’s piece is clearly the one to beat.

Exacta Box 1,2,4

3^rd – McAllen’s piece got some exercise in respectable effort with N3Ls and while getting some action. Drops in class and adds Camacho today.

Machado is now 2 for 30 with StRs here, but if there was ever one to buck the trend, this is it.

Earl Robinson made our Bomb Maker “B” team in first try last year, making 18% bombs with this angle: < 90 days rest + DC. Hey, ya never know.

Saver Trifectas All/5,6/4 (10 bets) if alive in the Pick Three otherwise,

Trifectas 5,6/All/4

4^th – Osprey (2) let us down in last but remains a threat. Big Perm (4) was sub-par in last and is unplayable off late fractions. In a race that has gotten a lot of my attention, most of the big finishers in Hold the Spice’s (5) last were destroyed in their next start. I’m off it.

Exacta Box 2,8,9

5^th – Pletcher is 52 & 87 with UCEs and 58% Win with either if the favorite.

3 or 5 Pick your poison.

6^th – Indian Buzz (5) and Dohko (7) were both par in first try. McGoey was 37% win with her angle last season, but can’t find the board at this meeting. I still like her for a piece.

Trifectas 3,5,7/1,4/3,5,7 (12 bets)

7^th – Smith has a 33 & 60 angle here. Owner Michael Schrader is 39 & 72 in L2. If you aren’t likin’ the horse or trainer, like the owner. Belmont shippers have that IV of 1.68 here until Santa has made his rounds. Carvajal Jr. is 27% Win here on the dropdown and at < 6-1 he’s 26 & 74.

Exacta Box 1,4,9

8^th – Manchan (not the one holding up my SALT deduction, the other one) bombed in 4 of 9 tries with FBKs at the last meeting.

Exacta Box 4,10,11

9^th – The riders of the 1,2,3,4 & 6 have 13 turf wins between them. Adios.

Exacta Box 5,7,8 or Trifecta Box 5,7,8,11 if the AE draws in

******

Wednesday, Dec. 15^th

The newcomers are making their mark, so our obligation to use them and our success at identifying their winners continues to trend in an upward trajectory. I prefer to have lots of data on every trainer I bet, but conventional handicapping methods are sometimes all one has to work with (at least for the time being).

PP 1 on the dirt currently has an IV of 1.78 going, much better than would be expected on an unbiased surface.

1^st – Glyshaw is 17 & 50 in Non-layoff Dirt Sprints in L5T and Allen (6) takes a sensible drop in class after multiple starts versus much better. Centeno is holding his own in the very competitive colony. Beemie calls him Centeeno, Grunder called him Centayno, either way, he still got it.

After his slowest start in many years, Mr. Bennett is now only a few dollars behind Harty for earnings at the meeting. He’s had 3 Winners this past week, but only tried the L1-3 + S + 1OC four times in L6T and missed the board with all four.

O’connor goes to Camacho here and he has a 58% ITM with the TtoD + RtS move.

Weighted DD 6/All (7 bets)

2^nd – Little to go on here. Gonz’s Working Overtime (3) was closest to par in last, but Aldana is just average at winning when the favorite.

Jorge Delgado is 50% ITM with this angle here in Oldsmar, but none of the 8 horses claimed from Smith have won here at “Florida Downs” recently.

Cahill is 3-4 ITM. Not bad for a new jack.

See R1

3^rd – Now and then, I get this urge to dig deep. In this race, it started with Vinson having a 15 & 50 record with FTSs in Dirt Sprints. Then I took a look at owners Equine Authority. As it turns out, they won with their first ever FTS under Sandy Cataldi back in 2015. Since then, they have had 3 FTSs, all with Vinson and those are 3 for 3 ITM with 1 Win. Her forefathers on both sides have had 12.2% and 9% Winners here respectively.

I’m willing to key on Irish Dream Girl (8) and gamble that I can crash their party today. I’m down about 8% of my bankroll, otherwise I might lay it in…

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 8/4,5,6,7

and $1.50 Trifectas All/4,5,6,7/8 (24 bets)($36)

4^th – This is as wide open a race as there ever was…

Pass

5^th – The 1,4,6,8 & 11 went on Nov. 27^th, a day when the variant on the grass was -10,0, but the last race went +30, +16 but with a -5 ½ final fraction. I was doubtful then, so I hand-timed it and it appeared legit. Maybe the other three turf races (an MC, an N2L and a runaway N1X) were inferior and only made the nite cap look much better than it actually was. If it was real, Carrasco Jr.’s Big Polo (4) appears most likely to succeed on the Shortenup. Either way, I’m not touching this race. In the 7^th race today, there are two going that came out of the same race. I’ll reserve my judgement for another hour. That said, the 2 went on the grass on the 27^th and should be tossed.

Action only play Exacta Key Box 4/1,6,9,10

6^th – A surprise (at least to most punters) appears likely here. Candy Crushem (1) has some big back numbers and drops in class for Morici, who is 50% ITM with this angle here. Wilson has his best distance change angle going, the Stretchout (17 & 51) and can pop with long layoffs (10% Win). McGoey is 0 fer 9 and it’s hard for me to imagine the drought continuing much longer, after her 22 & 55 showing in L2T.

$35 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/2,9

and $1 Saver Trifectas 1,2,9/3,8/1,2,9 (12 bets)($12)

DDs 1,2,9/1,7 or 3,8 depending on the outcome of R5

7^th – Assuming the 5^th verifies the legitimacy of the 10^th on Nov. 27^th, then the 1 and 7 will get an upgrade, otherwise, the 3 and 8 will figure more prominently in the equation.

Weighted Trifecta Box 1,3,7,8

8^th – The descendants of Mr. Prospector win 40% of all the races here, so Striking It Lucky (9) already has a leg up. Sillaman is competent, with a 15 & 44 record on the dirt with an above par AEPS. Gets the Lrl shipper (IV 1.30) advantage too.

Like Dini (well not Dini lately, but Dini recently), Waz has ascended a few steps on the ladder of credibility in the last few years. The fact is, Peter has been 43% ITM with RB + UC types. McKanas was a big bomb maker here awhile back and I smell something fishy going on with Camacho up here. Three quarters of his bombs were PTBs at some point.

$50 Weighted DDs 9/3,4,5,7 and Saver Trifecta 1,2/9/1,2,8 (4 bets) to cover

9^th – McGaughey won the nite cap on the grass on Saturday at 1-5 odds. So much for me thinking I had made some kind of scoop.

Harpoon Harry (5) graduated but didn’t get his diploma, after a positive drug test kept him from the ceremony. Blair has a 31 & 54 angle here.

If you’re willing to call Deregulation (7) an UC move, then Terranova is 46 & 63 with his multiple angle.

See R8 *********

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/15/2021

*****

Wednesday, Dec. 8^th

1^st – Unlike her peers, Pass the Salsa (1) has only four dirt starts and closed a gap belatedly in last. Her sire has 9% Winners here at Tampa. Nunn got his first Tampa win last week and gets extra points for the once over (IV 1.30). PP1 had three wins on Saturday and PP1 is 30% Win at the meeting in two turn races on the dirt.

Win 1

2^nd – Mr. Bennett has the most starters and the fewest winners, leaving us waxing philosophical. Will the drought continue? In the 21^st Century, he’s never had fewer than 16% Winners in a calendar year, and he’s at 20% Win for 2021. Perhaps the time to start betting Bennett again is on New Year’s Day 2022. Nevertheless, he is 36 & 78 with UCEs and has a 38 & 62 angle with Little Miss Sassy (5). Let’s give the 2^nd or the 3^rd to Bennett and see how things shake out. Short field encourages use of the ALL button as none of these appear to be that bad.

Pick 3 – 5/All/5 (7 bets)

Pick 3 – All/6/5 (7 bets)

3^rd – See R2

4^th – In a race where most of them are moving UC or way Up in Class, All Good Times (5) drops in class and reunites with octogenarian and her long-time trainer John Rigattieri, who hasn’t started any at any other track since the end of the last meeting. Beaten by 32K claimers in last, All Good Times is one of a handful of John’s top horses lifetime, including his #1 earner Twocubanbrothersu. Ya gotta believe that the happy reunion will energize both the horse and the man. Call me a sentimental fool but…

Conditional $50 Win 5 for 8/5 (Parlay to R5 if a winner)

5^th – With Bennett now 0-28 with S + DtoT types, Munoz 1-30 with Shortenups, Arnett with only slightly more experience with FTTs than me, and Bagwandeen engaging a 4% lifetime Turf jock, the 1 & 4 look pretty tough in a short field. But the one that caught my eye is the JT Wright surrogate, Night Cap (2). Mr. Wright was once a regular, if not full-time conditioner here, and he was 40% ITM at $10-1 with the L1-3 + Shipper angle and he had a bit of luck with FTTs too. Series of 4 and 5F works and very sharp one in last are encouraging, as is the assignment of Castanon.

Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/1,4

6^th – Pass

7^th – Now this is the kind of race that Albertrani is sending them here for. Like Motion’s Great Britain, who won for us last week, Hail To (4) also made a +7 Final Fraction in last at Belmont just 24 hours earlier. It looked right then, it looks right now.

Win 4 and Pick 3 – 4/1,2,3,7,8/5

8^th – When a 35% Win trainer (in dirt sprints at GP) drops off the claim and doesn’t get the money before being soundly beaten, then drops again under a surrogate, it looks to me like they wanna get this dud “off the books” so to speak.

See R7

9^th – Jimmy D (named for Jimmy Divito) never shined the way one might expect a namesake horse to do, but he won on the lawn here for Justin Johns at 8.5F and was an up-close 3^rd at 9F for David Hinsley here as well. He’s been earning his keep under various conditioners, but always for owner Ryan Ritt. The KD marathon got my attention, as Jimmy managed to go a cool 12.20 for the final six furlongs. Last two were off the weeds. Deserves a shot at a piece.

Bennett’s piece went +7,+5 on Opening Day, but he is only 11% Win with 2L1-3 + No Class Change types. On the other hand, where’s it gonna go?

ATB 5 and Saver Trifectas 1,3,8,9/5/1,3,8,9,10 (16 bets) if alive in the Pick 3

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/08/2021

Still warm on Saturday (although you folks didn’t get the

early play) as the neck loss in the 4th (a maiden claimer)

erased a shot at an @ $5500 payoff ….and a double

stinker by the Delacour barn in the nightcap blew a shot

at $575 or $900 …My mother begged me to stay in

school to be a pharmacist, but my life using a plastic 

tray and SS knife ??? ….not thinking so…. need that

fresh air and a cashier’s window ….sooooo …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50

2) 4, 5

3) 2, 5, 6

4) 3, 5, 7

5) 4, 7

                   $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50

6) 3, 6

7) 1, 3, 4, 7

8) 6, 8

9) 9, 10

                  $16.00

Best Bet (# 2 in R 1)

*********

Dec. 1, 2021

You wonder why things haven’t come together yet? Look no further than Bennett (0-13) and Camacho 2-22 (with no wins for our locally based conditioners yet).

I spent way too much time trying to cobble together a few bets on this card. I’m gonna go hang up my Christmas lights today.

1^st – Joseph Jr. is 19 & 50 with FTSs at GP in L5. This one was forced in at the start breaking 9^th of 10 at $4.80-1. Must be given the benefit of the doubt on the drop with Centeno up.

Win 3 and DDs 3/1,2,4,6 but only if the ML choice in R2 (#5) is the top choice in the DD Pool

2^nd – Grandmary (1) has found her feet and better late than never. Mr. B is 24 & 53 with RtSs. I figure La Castigilione (2) is a serious candidate to be claimed again today, leading to the assumption that Axmaker is thinking this may be my last shot at another check. Castanon is 3-4 Win now. Delgado is 48% Win if favored in this situation. Lovin Livin (6) is a gamer and must be included with Camacho in the irons.

See R1

3^rd – Delgado is 33 & 83 with UCEs and Mitzrayim (5) went 109-98 on the lawn last week (today’s par is 98-97). Jose is 38 & 62 with FBKs and 23 & 50 with PTBs. Note however, that these turf numbers are often less than reliable, but this one looks legit. On Saturday, the lawn variant was -10,0, but the last race went +30, +16 but with a -5 ½ final fraction. Gimme a break.

If you are captivated by Unspoiled Moments (3), think again. His last two wins came at the “Summer Festival”, a sorry excuse for racing as there ever was.

Gallardo was up for Guciardo in half of her last 14 bombs and she is 44% ITM with PTBs at average odds of $10-1. Gallardo suddenly wakes up when not odds-on.

Value Play Win 5 for 9/2

4^th – Poseidon’s Myth (1) has an interesting profile with all those OSTs and up close finishes and Ubide (21% bombs recently) goes to Morales. If Max wasn’t 0-36 with DtoTs, I might have bitten.

Dini 1.0 is 7% Win with 2TTs. Dini 2.0 gotta be better than that, but how much better?

JC Avila is 1-26 with my recently added CC NOS (Class Change Not Otherwise Specified).

P-M is 0-31 with firsters on the lawn.

DDs 8,9,10,13 or 3,8,9,10 if 13 is out/3

5^th – Smith wins with long layoffs (28%) and RtSs (24%) but is 2-38 with TtoD types. The weakest link theory must prevail.

Posadas is 12 & 38 in dirt sprints in at L5 at Delaware. Why not here? Trainer changed to Raymond. I’m still in.

Win 3

6^th – Lund’s piece performed as expected in outgunned N3Y/N2XT in 2021 loss and beat many of the same runners this field has been facing previously, but Cardoso’s 0-22 on the lawn in L3 kills it for me.

Why Delgado would put a for $75K sale sign on a horse that won $114K in last start confounds. No sir, I don’t like it.

Ward’s Fox Rox (6) has been flailing but Ward bombs with Layoff + PTB angle. Morales takes the call again (was 2^nd at 6-1 for Ward this past week).

If Bennett isn’t off the schneid after the 1^st or 2^nd, Baby Boomer(8) might be the one.

Weighted Pick 3 – 1,4,5,6,8/5/1,6,7 (15 bets)(weighted to leg 1)

7^th – Arnett single-handedly raised up PrM shippers to an IV of 1.22 last year, no small feat for a track ranked 24^th at Tampa for Class (among our feeder tracks). Jon is 10 & 50 with UCEs and is 66% ITM here with L + S types. On top of that Baydar (5) loves seven panels on the Oldsmar loam.

Pick 3 – 5/1,6,7/3,4,5,6,7,8 (18 bets)

Saver Exactas 2,6,7/5 to cover both Pick 3s

8^th – When a leading trainer is another trainers’ B team, ya gotta presume good things will happen. Nicks doesn’t have as many starters as many of the leaders down south, but he’s always near the top and was 12 & 40 for $2.5MM in L5GP on the lawn.

See R 6 but ML of 8-1 seems very generous for #1 Osprey

9^th – Arnett’s piece was trounced in only two turn turf race and he missed with every DtoT type last season. Could surprise, but I’m tossing Thrown for a Loupe (1). Dye is winless in 21 tries on the lawn in L5T. Spanabel on the lawn? Not yet. Guciardo bombs with Dr. No (Gallardo) and she has nothing going here (with angles).

See R7

**********

Opening Day – Nov.  24th, 2021

1^st – Happy Loudon (1) has a new home with Leading Owner Carole Star and JH Delgado (23% Win with PTBs), but this one looks like it needs a little work before going postward at Delgado’s typical 5-2 odds. Gonz is 42% ITM with her angle. Newcomer Steve Cahill will be making some waves but not with this cheapie, Camacho sticks for the “always on the improve” Gerald Brooks. Gotta suspect Samy knows something we don’t. If Rhone’s stats weren’t trending into the abyss here in Oldsmar, I’d say I love that pre- shipping, crushed on the grass and then trailed early combo (after a couple of solid efforts) but until I see improvement (from Bernell), Rhone gets only a minor piece. AM Rodriguez is 46% ITM with this type in L5T with 10% Wins. Both of Smooth as Glass’ (8) wins were right here. Appears well intended.

Gimme She Dazzle (4). The 3YO was above par in all three sprints on the dirt here last Spring, then got 2^nd win at Mth in first try. She was in over her head and now drops to the bottom while shipping from Del (IV 1.22). O’Connor has a 52% ITM angle, but none for win.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 4/6,8

2^nd – Tampa layoffs have an IV of 0.73 before Christmas, but Mr. Bennett is 19% Win with Non-shipping Long Layoffs. He usually hits the ground running, but I’m a Doubting Thomas in this one. McGoey is full of surprises and Machado is 23% Win with PTBs.

All Fools Day (4) was above par on the last day of the meeting and appears to be the obvious choice, but Ward has no multiple angle, although he is 15% Win at Tampa with L4-8s, so reject the 90+ days away angle from Brisnet.

Win 4 (with only tepid enthusiasm)

3^rd – I won’t touch this one, but I’ll lay the groundwork for you. Dini 2.0 and Arrnett were 20% Win and 18% Win respectively with 2YOs last season. Dini is like Rodney Dangerfield, he “gets no respect”. Despite a huge improvement in his game, his average win odds remain a generous 9-2. Arnett was 100% ITM here with Non-layoff Shippers at his first Tampa meeting, with 3 Wins in 7 tries. Rodolfo Garcia is 3 for 4 ITM here on the grass in L4T. Ochoa looks right in all ways but the FTT. Parra tries with FTS + FTT types and Glyshaw is 9-30 ITM on the lawn here with 3 Wins. Which ones display anything today? Your guess is as good as mine.

Trifectas All/3,5/3,5 (16 bets)(just for fun)

4^th – Smith has Cotton Jim (son of Leading Tampa Sire High Cotton 11.5%). RG has a nice multiple-angle here, the L1-3 + S + RtS, 39% Win. Raced forwardly early in first try with new connections and Smith is par with PTBs. Centeno takes the call.

Win 4

5^th – The first staple race of the standard Turf diet yields a better than expected field, so I’m looking for several defections and perhaps less than adequate value, but, Brooks’ piece is 77% ITM in all turf tries. Perfectly Magestic’s (5) optional claimers have offered a lot of cover. I’m looking for a surprise with Camacho up. Mr. Bennett is 38 & 62 with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown, but Gallardo will burn you badly on a regular basis. Arriagada didn’t get it done in 1^st 3 OC but salvages his pride by shipping on the dropdown. He and Batista were 24 & 65 last season.

Exacta Box 5,6,10 and Saver Trifectas 5,6,10/1,7/5,6,10 (12 bets)

6^th – Candy Jar (2) is from Candy Ride – 16.2% Winners here and on the Dam’s side by Sharmadal (by Giant’s Causeway) multiple G1 Winner across the pond. Godolfin was #2 in the owner standings last season. Harty outperforms with all six of his singles here (but has no multiple angle). Sharp 5F work a few days ago is encouraging. AP/Hawthorne rider doesn’t hurt chances.

Schistl had 4 bombers with FTS and 2TSs last season. He’s tops with Trainer Value for Win. Sire Tiznow has 12% Winners here.

Exacta Box 2,8 and Trifectas 2,8/1,4,10/2,8 (6 bets)

7^th – Mr. Bennett has a nice bet against here, 0-25 with S + DtoT types. You’ll rarely get a toss like this one. Thomas was 87% ITM with the L1-3 + Shortenup in 20-21 at Tampa but is a tough sell at only 8% Win on the Rightback.

In last, Zarina (6) was beaten by Kahiko (winner of 5 of 8 and $122K in 2021) and Lovely Luvy (216K LT Earnings, including two recent ITM Black Type finishes recently). Stewart is 32% Win with the L1-3 + S + Stretchout angle and outperforms with Dropdowns and DtoT types. If he’s favored in this scenario, he’s 43 & 87. Working very sharply. Gallardo is up for Rodriguez and not Stewart, accidentally improving Zarina’s chances.

$50 DD 6/7 and Saver Trifectas 1,3,4,8,10/1,6/1,4,6 (15 bets) to cover

8^th – Nick the Cardshark (7) faced all SALW6250s in last and Delgado is 43% Win when favored in this situation. He’s also 15 of 18 ITM with Dropdown + No Distance Change types. Ships from Mth (IV 1.23 before Christmas), gets Camacho and worked sharply last week.

Exactas 2,6,10/7 to cover (if alive in the DD), otherwise $25 Win 7

9^th – Kurtinecz bombed 3X with Layoffs on the Turf here recently. Made multiple above par final fractions on the lawn, has faced better, gets Centeno. Will she settle for being short?

Marrero looks like a shill for Parra, as the connections of the recent winner remain with Jesus Suarez. Bisono sticks.

$10 Win 4 and Saver Exacta 6/4 to cover

****************

June 30, 2021 – Last day of the 20-21 meeting.

Two inches of rain earlier in the week and another inch and a half in the last two days and the Summer Festival is looking more and more like the annual farce that it is. Nevertheless, duty calls…

1^st – OFF THE TURF- Smith is 44 & 63 with his multiple angle and 63% ITM in OSTs. Camacho has had 6 winners down south this week.

ATB 6

2^nd – If favoritism is to Stewart’s piece, Chad is 86% ITM in this situation. It’s a wait and see scenario, but Camacho may tilt our little pinball game (whether it’s justified or not).

Ed Williams is 59% ITM with L1-3s that aren’t PTBs and Wild Enough (8) has already been above par. Wilmer Garcia has been hitting the board regularly at GP this past week.

If 5 is the top choice, then Exacta Box 5,8, if not

Trifecta Box 5,6,7,8

3^rd – OFF THE TURF – Manning’s recently acquired Freelance (4) checks all my boxes. Dennis has been putting over longshots all winter here in Oldsmar, he wins when they are taken off the grass, sharp Oakridge work went +5 above the bullet par, Camacho is up, 1^st G, 1^st L.

However, Baxter’s AE takes some air out of Freelance’s balloon. Baxter is 50% Win with her multiple angle and the powerhouse Averill+ stables are 35% Win at the meeting.

If R Man Joe (9) is in, then Exacta Box 4,9, if not, then

ATB 4

4^th – A 20 & 46 multiple angle for VK Princess (AE-#9) and a long time trainer/jockey bomb angle make this sad looking runner a contender for a piece of it…

Trifectas All/1,4,8/9 (up to 21 bets), if the 9 is out,

Exacta Box 1,4,8

5^th – OFF THE TURF – KJ Coa, in town for two days from Delaware Park, actually had an easier trip then the gang that carpooled from Hallandale Beach, I can assure you. There’s a mental post-it note in my file that reminds me that Tom Proctor has utilized Coa with good success for the past few years (they are 18 & 44 when teamed up), so I’m investing is Smith’s FTS here, hoping that it ends up being another OST that pops for RG.

ATB 8 and Saver Exacta 4/8 to cover

6^th – Pass

7^th – OFF THE TURF – Smooth as Glass (6) was closest to par when she hit bottom and stays there. Another chance for AM Rodriguez, who is 50% ITM with this type at GP.

Ochoa has another with that same 20 & 46 angle (see R4) but this one will be an OST and is sans Urdaneta.

Dreaminofdaises (2) is usually late to the party, but versus these, could be there even if she arrives at the last call for alcohol.

Trifectas All/2,6/1,7,8 (36 bets)

8^th – Yanez is a bomb maker. His avg win odds are $5-1 at the current meeting and were $10-1 at the previous four. I’m just not feeling it, especially with Camacho up. Yanez had one winner with Camacho up in L2T and it paid $9.00 and Yanez historically underperforms when the top choice.

Give me McGoey, 24 & 55 with her angle and 27% Win on the double class drop.

Exacta Key Box 2/3,5,7,8,9

DD 2/7

9^th – OFF THE TURF – Stewart has that 86% ITM angle again if favored here, he wins with OSTs (21 & 57) and was above today’s par in maiden win. Goes back to the dirt after trying on the lawn. For all the marbles…

Win 7

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for the first day of the Summer Festival of Racing (6/30)

No whips at Monmouth, Will Rogers is done, Belterra is, well, Belterra and Lone

Star gets the Oklahoma crew. All I can say is Thank God for the Oasis that is

the Summer Festival of Racing at Tampa. Camacho shows to cement his riding

title and the others ….well let’s just say they showed. Beem in the announcers

booth should be an upgrade in pronunciations, so we are up in class there. Just

wondering if these conditioners have ever heard of the newly renamed Fanduel

or Fairmont Park and their $3200 claimers ….C’est la Vie 

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

           2) 3, 5, 8

           3) 2, 4, (9)

           4) 4, 8

           5) 4, 6

                          $12.00 ($18.00)

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

          6) 2, 3, 5, 7

          7) 7, 8, (9)

          8) 1, 3

          9) 4, 7**

                          $16.00 ($24.00)

** Best Bet

**********

Wednesday, April 28^th

Camacho extends his lead to four with 4 + 1 remaining. Would Doctor No return in June if necessary? Samy gets a few more and Gallardo will be taking dives like Jake LaMotta and Sonny Liston…

I’ve been having a pretty good run lately and mostly on account of my new-found willingness to take some really short prices. I suspect it to be only a temporary condition, but while it lasts…

1^st – If Carrasco Jr. takes the money again, we will assume last was just a squib load as Victor is 81% ITM when favored in this situation.

Exacta Key Box 6/5,7 and DD 6/2 if 6 is the favorite, otherwise

Trifecta Box 5,6,7/5,6,7/1,3,5,6,7 (18 bets)

2^nd – Schistl is 25 & 63 here and gets the leading rider, who is looking to pad his lead whenever possible now.

Gotta give the F3s Granitz and Bowersock a piece.

Trifectas All/2/3,6 (14 bets) and Superfectas All/2/1,4,5,7,8,9/3,6 (72 bets) if alive in the DD, otherwise

Pick 3 – 2/1,5,7/All (24 bets)

3^rd – I finger the usual suspects here.

Exacta Box 1,5,7

4^th – See R2

5^th – Morales makes triumphant return after solid winter meeting in NY. A little family vacation time before resuming his run in the big leagues. Unfortunately, Pimental has no angle going.

Baxter is hard not to key with a record of 15 (8-2-2) with this type. A couple of defections would not surprise at all.

Win 4

6^th – $0.50 Pick 4 – 2,5,7/4,5,8/1,2,3,6,7/8,9 (90 bets)($45)

7^th – Exacta Box 4,5,8

8^th – $150 in Weighted DDs 1,2,3,6,7/7 if alive in the Pick 4

9^th – Zippy filly gets back to a winning spot for Rodriguez who is 32 & 61 with Non-shipping 2L1-3s.

Granitz, an F3, could upset. His filly is 5of 6 ITM on the lawn and he is better than 50% ITM with L4-8 + Shippers and RtSs.

Schistl’s piece drops again after two solid efforts.

Mr. Bennett has a 71% ITM angle but none for win.

Lady Jean (6) is an ongoing nightmare for me. Only giving her yet another play will help me to sleep through the night.

Saver Trifectas 3,4,6/7,8,9/3,4,6,7,8,9 (36 bets) to cover if still alive to cover

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/28/2021

****

Wednesday, April 21st

In honor of Earth Day, I’m happy to report that more than 95% of the 65,000 pages I’ve printed to handicap since 2007 have been recycled. However, all that good, is clearly offset by the damage done when the Amazon delivery man drives to my house to deliver a tube of toothpaste. I encourage all to try to shop local and infrequently, whenever possible. Good planets are hard to find.

Good Planets Are Hard to Find – YouTube

1^st – OFF THE TURF- Who goes? Who knows?

Exacta Box 3,5,6

2^nd – Here’s a proven mathematical formula: N1X = 3+3.

Bowersock has cooled down some, but had 3 ITM last week, she is an F3 and meets our 3+3 condition, however, excluding the period of Allen Jr.’s visit to rehab recently, Maria is 1-25 when others are up. Toss for win, but scratch of Allen’s mount could have a ripple effect.

Going back 5 years, Padilla is 30 & 50 with the L1-3 + 1OC. Princess Livia (6) is a tough competitor.

DDs 3,6/1,4,5,8 but Exacta Box 2,3,6 if Allen Jr. replaces G. Garcia aboard Italian Justice (2).

3^rd – Firestone NY bred looks wrong dropping in class after two solid efforts on the lawn. I’m spooked.  Bennett’s IV is 0.67 here. Gotta try to beat him when you can.

Man, how I hate to single Doctor No. I really don’t think I can…

Trifecta Box 1,4,5,8

4^th – Pick 3 – All/4,5,8/3,4 (36 bets)

5^th – Ya gotta follow the money here. Arriagada is 37 & 77 if he’s favored, while Delgado is 40 & 78 if he’s the top choice. Mrs. Bennett is due and she has Camacho up.

Trifectas 4,5,8/1,3,6/4,5,8 (18 bets)

6^th – Rookie conditioner from the Boricua “Isle of Enchantment” has a UCE creating an opportunity to toss two in a seven horse field. OK, to toss one anyway.

Players choice:

Pick 4 – 3,4/2-7/2,7,8,10/1,3 (96 bets)

Pick 4 – 3,4,5,6/3,4,6/2,7,8,10/1,3 (96 bets)

7^th – Monad (5) adds 10 lbs. after making a 74 in a par 88 with bug boy up. I don’t think so…The 7 is out of the same race.

See R7

8^th –  Dini 2.0 is 54% ITM with his angle. Might help that Doctor No is up since we are looking for a 2^nd or a 3^rd.

Avila has a 3% Win angle here, but there are always exceptions. Tread lightly…

Saver DDs 4/1,3 to cover if alive in the Pick 4 to cover

Exacta 4/5

Trifectas 4/2,7,8,10/5 (4 bets).

9^th – Ferrer has the same Win % in dirt sprints as the Leading Rider (and with a better ROI). Tony Small (1) went 111-106 at 8.18F three back and returns to related distance on the dirt today (today’s par is 100-99). Ward outperforms with the TtoD + RtS move.

Doctor No is unreliable, but has Rodriguez has a 32% Win angle going and the Quirins to back it up.

Saver Trifectas if alive in the Pick 4 to cover – 2,4,5/1,3/1,2,3,4,5 (18 bets)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/21/2021

What better way to spend 4/20** than to handicap yet another terrible card at Tampa. So terrible, that the only legit candidate for the best bet hasan 0fer 16, 10lb bug …. usable only for the mark of it’s trainer….down to the last 2 weeks, and I’m dead determined to get out with at least 1 more hit …even if it’s for peanuts and a Bud ….

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 3, 6

              3) 1, 4, 5

              4) 5, 8

              5) 4, 5, 7

                               $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 1, 2, 3, 6

              7) 6, 7

              8) 2, 4

              9) 5, 10

                              $16.00

** Best Bet

*****

Wednesday, April 14th

We enter the final three weeks of the meeting and focus on those with a record of getting it done during this period.

Yesterday’s works indicate little to no damage following Sunday’s deluge. The day begins cool but looks to hit 90 by evening. If there is any moisture left, expect it to be gone after the 4^th or earlier.

1^st – Granitz is 33 & 45 in F3 (final three weeks 2013-2020) and 19 & 45 with No Class Change Rightbacks. Bennett presents the main threat if bet down. Bustin Hearts (3) did the post-Ness descent off the claim. Only a very best effort will get it done today.

DDs 4,5/3,6

2^nd – Granitz has another here and a 16 & 48 angle with the Plain Stretchout. Nothin’s Free (3) and Exceed the Goal (6) have been closest to par recently.

Saver Pick 3 – 1,2,4/2,5,7,10/9 (12 bets) if alive in the DD

3^rd – A reprint of Ochoa’s narrative from VK Star’s (2) last: VK Star (3) also got my antennas buzzing today. Ordonez is 24 & 44 for Ochoa. In last, the pilot’s body language said he wasn’t asking in the final 1/16^th, but the horse was running as though she could feel the whip. It was odd to watch (especially as close as the finish actually was). Ochoa has a 44% ITM angle here at average odds of $25-1 and most of his bombs have been Plain Distance Change types. Last was better than par.

FBK after odds-on failure have my interest again and Ochoa also outperforms in F3 with a 19 & 46 record in L7. Is it a coincidence that Ochoa was 0-5 when the favorite on the lawn in L5T?

Exacta Key Box 2/5,7,10

4^th – Hem has an F3 of 20 & 46. Rogue Rage (9) was par for total energy (T/E) in last three.

Bennett has the safety play, 29 & 63 with Plain Stretchouts.

Saver Exacta 8/9 to cover Races 1 & 2 bets if alive in the Pick 3

5^th – Pass

6^th – $0.50 Pick 4 – 5,6,10,11/2,4,5,7,13/7/4,6,8 (60 bets)($30)

7th – See R6

8^th – KOC appears to be the one to beat.

Stewart is 17 & 53 in F3 and has a 55% ITM angle.

Matos is 41% ITM with the L + PTB angle at $11.20-1.

Saver Exactas 4,5,9/7 if alive in the Pick 4 to cover

9^th – Rodriguez is 31 & 50 with L4-8s. Boland’s piece was par in MSW win. Hunt’s Fireball Run (6) was also par two back and he is 25 & 50 with 2L1-3s.

Exacta Box 4,6,8

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/14/2021

*******

Wednesday, April 7th

“The great thing is to last and get your work done and see and hear and learn and understand; and write when there is something that you know; and not before; and not too damned much after.” – Earnest Hemingway

1^st – Arnett is 1-13 with UCEs now and O-fer with both of his angles here. Eidschun is 0-20 with his. Guciardo is only 6% when not babysitting OPH. Discreet Heat (5) was the best of these, but the secret sauce recipe was lost each time he changed barns. Ferraro (2) and Bowersock (6) are both 20% Win with their multiple angles, but I’m only window shopping here.

Pass

2^nd – Sanchez is 27% Win here and at Monmouth in L5 with Non-layoff dirt routes. What are Doctor No’s instructions/plans for today? It’s all guess work.

Gonz’s piece was +6,+5 at 8.5F on the dirt on January 9^th. Bris gave No Time To Yawn a 66 in that one, while my Bris equivalent is about an 80. Skeptical, I went back and it all checks out. If the FAT (Fully Automatic Timer) wasn’t working, well, that’s a whole another matter, but this is Tampa we are talking about. Either way Aldana has an IV of 1.51 with TtoDs.

Errol Meyers has an AEPS of $1773, which would put him in good stead around Hawthorne, Finger Lakes, Fort Erie or Louisiana Downs and not so much here in Oldsmar, but he has had some luck here and Got Fashion (6) has been closest to par among these.

Machado is 5-8 ITM with three Wins recently and Antonio did bomb three times last year with Rightbacks.

Yadi (2) has issues, but surprises fairly often.

DDs 6,7/6,7

Saver Pick 3s – 6,7/2,5/5,7 to cover (8 bets)

3^rd – Max Ubide has an IV of 1.57 in dirt sprints in L5T. He presents with a 54% ITM angle here, the Plain Shortenup. My Aunt Christina’s (6) Sire, Greatness, produced 15% Winners here, and his father, Mr. Prospector, a fierce sprinter, has bloodlines that run through 39% of all Tampa winners in the modern era. Additionally, 11 of 12 of Ubide’s most recent bombs have been Shortenup or Stretchout types, but Christina may be the 2^nd or 3^rd choice today. His average win price in L3T is $6.40-1. His ML is 6-1. I just got a hunch that, for the right price, today is the day…

Carrasco Jr. appears to be the likely favorite and he is 24 & 43 with Plain FBKs and 70% ITM in starts where the favorite but not moving up in class.

All Plays Conditional to the 6 being 9/2 or >

$50 ATB 6 (my “no regrets” play)

$50 Exacta Box 6,7

$10 Trifectas 6,7/2,5/2,5,6,7 (8 bets)($80)

Total play: $330

4^th – Pick 3 – All/4/2,3,5,6 (36 bets)

5^th – Weaver is 40 & 70 with his multiple angle in L5T and Girl Dad (4) has the best numbers in the field.

Win 4

6^th – Wilkes was spotted at GP and then Kee recently. I like when they leave one behind. General Ginny (2) has a 20 & 53 angle, but Wilkes goes to leaders. I don’t know about Reeves here…

Van Winkle has a 36% Win angle.

Saver Win 8 to cover if alive in the Pick 3

7^th – Pugilist (5) is the clear choice here, as Delgado is 48 & 66 if favored here (and will be)!

The N1X prompts us to look for a 3+3 and Silver Tunes (8) is the 2^nd best fit from that perspective.

Only Bennett’s piece looks wrong. Gerry is 1-10 with the RB + DtoT move in L5T.

Weighted DD Wheel 5/All

Saver Trifectas 1,3,4,8/5/1,3,4,8 (12 bets)

8^th – See R7

9^th – VK Star (3) also got my antennas buzzing today. Ordonez is 24 & 44 for Ochoa. In last, the pilot’s body language said he wasn’t asking in the final 1/16^th, but the horse was running as though she could feel the whip. It was odd to watch (especially as close as the finish actually was). Ochoa has a 44% ITM angle here at average odds of $25-1 and most of his bombs have been Plain Distance Change types. Last was better than par.

$25 Win & $50 Show 3

Saver Trifectas 1,4,8,9,11,13/3/1,4,8,9,11,13 (up to 30 bets) to cover the $25 Win bet

*******

Wednesday, March 31^st

1^st – Ward is 68% ITM with UCEs and has favored Ferrer over the years, but he’s 5-15 Win with Allen Jr up this meeting. Open 8 = Open 10 = N1X and that’s a fact. With that in mind, it’s harder to see this N3L winning again.

Scratches decimate the picture.

Trifectas 6,7/2,4,6,7/2,4,6,7

DDs – 6,7/5,6,7

Win 6

2^nd – Pick 3 – 6,7/All/2,8

3^rd – I was on Vow Saver (5), but -10 on the Shortenup at 30-1 puts me off no matter what pilot she has.

See R2

4^th – McGoey is 24 & 56 with her angle and Gallardo is booted or jumps, most likely the latter, but Doctor No has a healthy 25% Win when not the favorite for Delgado and that’s hard to ignore. Nevertheless, Cleopatra (6) has not gotten near par and no surprise is expected here. Beattie Jr is 4-5 ITM with 2 Wins with his angle recently and Ornery Angel (8) went +4 early before weakening and shortens up today and was closest to par among these in previous.

Saver Trifectas 4,6,7/2,8/2,4,6,7,8 (18 bets) if alive in the Pick 3

5^th – We had Me and Mr. C on top in BLACK TYPE on Sunday and he beat Lord Barna (1) as did big Quirin, back to back winner Quality Step. Ya gotta believe KOC knew she came to a gunfight with a knife in those two. She’s 20% Win with NCs.

Rising star Fly the W was within 4 of Mr. C in last. May improve today.

Casse is 31 & 63 with his angle and looks right on the Shortenup.

Exacta Box 1,4,6

6^th – Bennett has improved with Non-shipping L1-3s when not the favorite, but his IV is still 0.65. A bet against worth making (even if not ideal).

All bets (R6 & R7) are off if Capturemenow (1) has favoritism in the 6^th.

$0.50 Saver Pick 4 – 2,3,4,7,8/4/5,6,8/2,8 (30 bets)($15)

7^th – Another Bennett with same angle. Same strategy.

$3 Pick 3 – 5,6,7,9/5,6,8/8,10 (24 bets)($72)

8^th – Exacta Box 5,6,8

9^th – When you exclude Doctor No from consideration, JH Delgado is 5-10 Win with RB + UC types when the top choice at the current meeting.

Musetta (8) was late but made up four lengths in the stretch, passing four runners and finishing with a -2,0 and a +8 Final Fraction.

Saver Exactas 2,4/8,10 to cover if still alive

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/31/2021

With only two festival days left, I, for one, will be glad to see them finished for the meet ….they are very, very unkind to Mr. Pick 4 …. the last month of the meet is when all those outstanding feed, tack, and vet bills have to be covered before the outfits disperse North and West, so we look for the low percentages to get a boost ….and a good meal before the trip …..

Early Pic 4 …. $.50    

              2) 5, 6

              3) 3, 5, 6

              4) 2, 4, 7

              5) 1, 5

                            $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 2, 5, 7

              7) 4, 5, 9

              8) 1, 7

              9) 4, 10

                            $18.00

NO BEST BET

*****

Wednesday, March 24^th

1^st – Money talks and bullshit walks in this one. Bennett’s IV plunges to 0.49 if his piece is not the favorite here. Ferraro is 7-13 ITM with 3 Wins with the Non-shipping L1-3 and 6-12 ITM with Gallardo up at average odds of $10-1. The more money April Fog (5) takes, the worse its chances.

If 4 is the favorite, the Trifecta Box 1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5/1,3,5,6 otherwise

Pick 3 – 1,3,5,6/1,2/2,4

2^nd – Pick 4 – 1,2/All/5,6/1,5,7 (72 bets)

3^rd – Saver Pick 3 – 2,4/3,7,9/1,5,7 (18 bets)

4^th – Joe A is 20 & 39 with RtSs, 45% ITM with L1-3 + Dropdown types and 2-2 Win with Gallardo up. Doctor No is a safe bet when not the favorite.

Camacho sticks for Hulme, who was up close in first try at rock bottom. I wish I had a “Penny” (pun intended) for every time she bombed here with Limehouse Gas and Sugah Sweet.

See R2 & R3

5^th – Exacta Box 1,5,7

6^th – Inedatequila (3) made above par EP and wasn’t shaken up till they hit the 1/8^th pole, then was gone. Final fraction was +2 but Quirin was -6, hinting that the race wasn’t quite as good as it may have appeared.

Pick 4 – 1,3,7/1,3,6/3,4,5,9,10/2 (45 bets)

Pick 4 – 1,3,4,6,7/1,3,6/3,4,5/2 (54 bets)

7^th – Delacour is 90% ITM with the Non-layoff Shipper + Dropdown, Casse is 36 & 64 when favored here and he and Doctor No are 3-3 Win when the top choice this meeting. Motion was par despite missing off the Layoff, but has all very solid singles and Dance Recital (6) appears to be the better intended of the UCEs.

Weighted Exacta Box 1,3,6  but only if there is any value to be had.

8^th – Bowersock is now 12-15 ITM with 3 Wins recently. I was never a fan of what one colleague calls “short term cycles”, but it can’t be ignored either. Sanchez is 9 of 14 Win or Place with his angle. KOC, with par win in last, would not surprise on the RB with another.

See R6

9^th – Ward is 27 & 55 here. Fox Rox (2) was par in 2 of last 3 at levels better than this. If he wasn’t a senior citizen, he wouldn’t be entered for $16K. Old Guys Rule!

Exactas 1,6,7/2 to cover if alive in the Pick 4

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/24/2021

*******

Wednesday, March 17th

Last week, I mentioned Billy Joel and “Scenes from an Italian Restaurant” and the lyrics “Do you remember those days hanging out at the Village Green?”

As fate would have it, I had to go back to the old neighborhood (first time since the 80s) to pick up a new touchpad for my year-old oven. The original Village Green consisted only of the first building in the foreground and of course the “green” on the left. Happy Saint Paddy’s Day! Hopefully there’s some green in it for us today.

1^st – Painter’s Pride (6) gets another play after +2, -3 effort two back for bomb maker Mazza.

Tangled Web (3) drops after facing toughest 10K field in last.KOC’s piece went +7, -1 two back.

Exacta Key 3/5,6

2^nd – FBK works for KOC and makes sense after par effort two back, followed by sub-par effort in last, but KOC/Gallardo are only 2-11 at the meeting and only 9-81 last year when not the top choice.

Arnett is 1-12 with Stretchouts and 3-19 with Rightbacks.

Upset seems like a real possibility.

Trifecta Box 3,5,6,7

3^rd – Delacour is only 12% Win with L1-3s that are not the favorite but that might be good enough to sink these.

DDs 4,6/3,7

4^th – Avila was supposed to pop in 1^st OC and failed on the class drop. I think Arnett was sucker punched.

Saver Exactas 2,4/3,7 to cover if alive in the DD

5^th – Our Grey Ghost mad a 100-89 on GOOD dirt surface at 20-1. The cats out of the bag if the numbers are good (and they are).

Munoz is 0-8 with Non-shipping L1-3 + No Distance Change (0 ITM).

Ryan is deadly with UCEs. Potts can bomb here.Stidham has above par singles.

Trifecta Box 3,9,10,12  if 12 is in, otherwise

Exacta Box 3,9,10 and Saver Trifectas 3,9,10/1,8,9/3,9,10 (18 bets)

6^th – Exacta Box 5,7,8 and Saver Trifectas 5,7,8/1,4,6/5,7,8 (18 bets)

7^th – Lucky Mike (2) must be Irish.

LR Dominguez, with a 2-46 record with L4-8s is chosen as surrogate for Vinson today. How convenient is that considering that Vinson has these angles going today:

L4-8s 36 & 50

Layoff + Class Change 59% ITM

Shipper + Distance Change 26 & 67

And went +4 better than par in gate work at EQL recently.

$33 ATB 2   

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/3,6,10

8^th – DDs 1,5/1,2,3

9^th – Saver Trifectas 4,6,7,10/1,2,3/4,6,7,10 (36 bets) if alive in the DD

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/17/2021

Luck of the Irish my ass …even a 4 leaf clover wasn’t

going to stop the 6% trainer who torpedoed the late play

on Wednesday ….and we won’t complain about the early

play, as Ward’s piece runs an uncharacteristic dead last,

and Orseno’s at least showed up ….JB must be scratching

his head bald, with my best bet today, using not one, but

two of my biggest bet againsts ….testament to the caliber

of racing we’re being treated to …..so it goes

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

2) 3, 6, 7

3) 4, 6

4) 3, 4

5) 1, 9

$12.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

6) 1, 4, 5, 8

7) 3, 6, 10

8) 1, 5, 8

9) 3 **

$18.00

** Best Bet (yes, even with Dini and Dr. No)

******

Wednesday, March 10^th

“Though we choose between reality and madness,
It’s either sadness or euphoria” – Billy Joel

Isn’t it the truth! Back in the day, me and the Piano Man both hung out at the Village Green (on Levittown Parkway at Beech Lane in Hicksville, NY). That was so long ago now…

Eight more weeks of action before my six-month vacation begins. I sincerely hope that things are looking up for all of you!

1^st – By any metric you may choose, Li’l Meatball (1) is the one.

Win 1

Pick 3 – 1/4,5,7,8/6 (4 bets)

^2nd – In a race devoid of win angles, KOC is > 50% ITM with two multiple angles here.

Parra bombed in 3 of 9 tries with Layoffs that were PTBs, its kind of a soft stat, but it is what it is. Pimental outperforms with No Changes and he has seven No Change bombs in the recent past. Parra is 3-83 win with PTBs. I’m not buying at 3-1.

Exacta Key Box 5/4,7,8

3^rd – Shedancesforfate (6) was well above par in last three. 5-2 would be a gift on the dropdown here.

Ryan has an IV of 0.46 with Non-shipping L1-3s. Three percent trainer Wetherington,has her very best angle going here, Peggy is 24 & 42 with the Plain UC + Shortenup angle. Harty’s last win was January 15^th. Is he due or is he dead?

$10 Pick 3 – 6/2,3,4,6,7/1 (5 bets)($50)

4^th – See R3

5^th – Kenneally is 45 & 70 on the lawn in L2T. Class drop, Shortenup & Camacho are the icing.

Motion is now 1-42 with Non-shipping L1-3s, but the Duchess of Sussex (ain’t that Meghan Markle?) went +11, +1 in last, but with a -5 adjusted Final Fraction.

Exactas 1/3,5,7

6^th – McGoey is now 20 & 52 with her angle and was above par in last. Jimenez is off today.

Delgado is 33 & 75 with his multiple angle.

Bennett’s Play the Max (8) has Quirins that are moving in the wrong direction and Gerry is only 14% Win with No changes.

$0.50 Pick 4 – 1,5/2,6,10/1-5/4,8,9 (90 bets)($45)

7^th – Saver $10 DDs – 4,7,9/3 (3 bets)($30) if alive in the Pick 4 after Leg 1

8^th – Escobar is 10 (1-1-4) in 1^st OC + Dirt + Sprint. It’s her best chance to get to the circle at the meeting. Centeno sticks. With the exception of her debut, Lady Breanna is 1-3 Win and 3-3 ITM lifetime at related distances over a fast track. It appears unlikely that more than one of these can go with Breanna early (I’m thinking Bustin Hearts (5) who may be martyred in the process).

See R6

9^th – Chess Master (4) bested N3L Bee By The Sea and cheap claimer Striking Heir in OST in last, but was above par in previous on the lawn. If a judge ordered me to strike the OST from my consideration (as judges sometimes do), I must admit I’d be Kerri Raven’s piece.

Doctor No is up for Blair, who has a 30 & 60 multiple angle here, the L1-3 + No Surface Change.

Rice’s That’s Buckbeak (8) when 106 early while dueling at the route (in a par 100). Don’t it make u wonder?

Exactas 2,3,7,10/4,8,9 to cover if alive in the Pick 4

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/10/2021

Hoping with the warmer weather the results also start to

warm up … I’m beginning to feel as if I’m actually on the

payroll at TVG, as bad as I’ve been … in the coming weeks,

we’ll start to see the exodus for places north of here, and

we’ll really be hard pressed as Tampa Downs transforms 

into Ocala Downs …hell, even Peter Griffin (Wasiluk) and the Singin

Preacher (johnny Collins) may make it to the Circle, as Speith and Wales make

regular appearances also ….fasten your seat belts ……..

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 1, 7, 8

              3) 5, 6, 10

              4) 2, 7

              5) 1, 3

                             $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50 

              6) 1, 2, 8

              7) 2, 8, 9

              8) 2, 5

              9) 2, 9 **

                             $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $5.00

Deuces Wild …. 2, 2, 2, 2

Best Bet **

*****

March 3rd, 2021

Honored to be the Guest Handicapper. I’ve been playing Tampa Bay exclusively for the whole meet, so I’m familiar with the trainers and the track profile.

The first 4 races are MCs, but at least we have 8 horses, not the usual 6 horse race, scratch to 5, to start the day.

Note: Ryan has 4 in today after just 29 all meet. Keep an eye out.

1^st – 7F This trip favors outside speed. None of these can run par so we must go with the two 2TSs 3 & 8 who were both decently bet and had good excuses. The 8 is from Bennett. The #4 is the best of the others.

The Fav only wins 25% but 80% pay less than 5-1

Trifecta key 8/234/234

DDs 3,8/1,7

Pick 3 – 8/1/378

2^nd – 6.5F. This distance has been as tricky as PP1 has done well and front runners are not doing well and hence closers are winning their fair share. The #1 ships in for Wilkes and looks the part. #3 has OK # but has multiple losses with much cheaper. #7 Fits. #8 had a good first race ,died on the turf, but still moves up to 16k. Poor post hinders chances.

Favs win 50%

Play #1 win@2-1.

Exacta Box 1,7

Trifecta Key 1/783/783

DDs 1/3,7

Early Pick Four – 1/37/All/1 (20 tickets) if so inclined or just

Early Pick 4 – 1/37/9/1 if 20 tickets is too many for race 4

3^rd – 8.18F EPs and inside have been winning lately and all year. Closers have little chance. None of the FTSs 4,5, or 6 tick all my boxes to win first out.

There is Machado UCE 3 & 7. The. 7 looks good but it’s hard to like the 3 at all. But it does get LSX and blinkers off with a 3f gate work. So, it’s like a FTS and we’ll play…

#3 Win and Exacta Box 3,7

DDs, 3,7/9

4^th – MC16 8.5F Turf

The 2,5 & 8 ran parish #s on dirt. But nothing worth betting here. Maybe the #9 with that 50% FTT sire rating @20-1.

Johnny B. likes:

Exacta Box 2,6,12 or if 12 is out, Pick 3 – 2,6/1-7,(12)/1 (up to16 bets)

5^th – 8.5F Turf

In Turf routes,  I follow Mike Piazzola advice. BET THE BEST LAST FRACTION. For this I use the Bris LF ratings. I also adjust -5 for 1M to 1&1/16 and +10 for 2TT

So here

#1 100, #4 94, #10 93 adj to 88.

#1 Win @2-1

Exacta Key1/4,7 and Exacta 6/1

DDs 1,4/1,4

Pick 3 – 1/1/2,3,4

6^th – MSW 8.18F

#4 ticks all my boxes for a FTS except Wilkes own 5% win and 0/4 at routes.

#1 is the horse to bet @ 5-2 or greater

DD 1,4/2,3,4

Johnny B. likes:

If the #1 is the 1^st or 2^nd choice on the board:

Weighted DD Wheel 1/All

7^th – 8F Turf

Once again best LF

#3 95, #2 81 adj to 91 for 2TS, #7 87

Slightly complicated with Dini UCE 3&4 & GSB UCE 1&7. But since I don’t like the 7, I won’t bet the 1, but liking the 3 gotta bet the 4

Win 4

Exacta Box 3,4 and Exactas 4/1,2 and Exactas 2/3,4

****

I usually don’t handicapp the last 2 until after R5 has been run, as I like to have a fresh look after seeing 5 races and how my betting has been going.

So I’ll send John an update around R6

Best Luck!

Barry Thomson

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 03/03/2021

Whooooaaa !!! …..overshadowed by not one, but, two very

astute handicappers today ….. no whining about seconditis

…… no bitchen about poor rides …..just to let you know,

after the fair warning, I attempted to study extra, and I

mean extra, through the form ….only problem, was there

was scribbling, covering most of the important data, that

was provided with the “free” PP’s ….so, three bucks later

I started over, with a legible form to peruse ….so it goes

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 1, 5, 6, 8

              3) 1, 5

              4) 2, 5, 6

              5) 6 OR 11(if in) **

                                  $12.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 1, 3, 5

              7) 5, 7

              8) 7, 8

              9) 3, 5, 8

                                 $18.00

** Either is the Best Bet ( Dead Rail my As_)

*****

Wednesday, Feb. 24^th

1^st – Arnett is 1-15 with Shortenups, but 90% ITM with FBKs. I gotta go with the 4, who was par in last and gets Camacho today.

Win 4

Trifectas 4/1,3,7/1,3,5,7 (9 bets)

2^nd – Those entered for a tag have an IV of 0.71 in these OCs for 3YOs, leaving Top Gun Tommy (2) at a disadvantage from the get-go but scratch of the 3 upgrades chances. Doctor No is up for Casse, who is 28 & 64 with his multiple angle.

Broadway, went +9,+5 in Tampa debut, making Quirins that are better than today’s par. Clement is 29 & 70 with his multiple angle, but all subsequent starters out of that race have been trounced. Hendry did think enough of Last Investment to send him to the Sam F. Davis Stakes.

Bennett’s Foreman (4) was three over par in the Pasco, but the winner, did make 2^nd in The Sam F. Davis.

Exacta Box 2,4,5

3^rd – Spieth is now 1-49 recently. The struggling couple makes a claim for Schickendanz in hopes of getting something going, but I’m not feeling it.

Arboritanza does nothing with DtoT types, but this one was an OST that was eased through the final 1/16^th in last. I’m going to view things in that light.

AE Degrees of Freedom (11) comes back fast after racing with interest and above par in last. Longshot status frees up Gallardo to try here. Kevin is from Venus, I am from Mars in this one…

Trifectas 2,6,9,11 if the AE is in, otherwise Exacta Box 2,6,9

4^th – Carrasco Jr. is 19 & 47 with FBKs and 16 & 32 with RtSs. Tried the same angle at 7F and failed but has her best chance ever today at 5 ½ F after above par EP and career best fig two back. Bombs away!

$10 Win and $25 Show 7

$10 Exactas 3,8/7 ($20)

5^th – We are gifted a KING SIZE BET AGAINST here as Motion is only 2.6% Win in 38 tries with Non-shipping L1-3s.

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 5,8,9 and Saver Trifectas 5,8,9/2,4/1,5,8,9 (18 bets) to cover

6^th – Rogue Rage (9) was eased late with a +7,+3 and benefits from the class gap in EP that accompanies the Shortenup here. Hem is 33% ITM here but at $6.50-1 giving selection Value Play Status.

$33 ATB 9

7^th – Imprimis was withheld by trainer Joe Orseno from a Grade 3 race at his home track, the Feb. 13 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, to wait instead for the Turf Dash. Orseno said the new Gulfstream policy that bans Lasix in stakes was the compelling reason after Imprimis bled a bit in last. Orseno preps today for the April 3^rd Shakertown at Keeneland.

$50 DD 2/3

Saver Pick 3 – 5,6,9/3,4,8/6,9 to cover

8^th – Bennett is 69 & 85 with the 1OC + FBK his BEST MULTIPLE ANGLE.

Win 3

9^th – Galvan has a 262% ROI in Turf Sprints in L5T and Sethamee Street (6) keeps on surprising.

Casse is 41 & 72 with Shippers that are the favorite. He’s 20 and 70 with RtSs too. Doctor No rips the crotch out of it.

The Goddess Lyssa (4) has been outstanding, but Bennett is only 8% Win with FTTs, 13% Win in NGSs and Lyssa’s breeding suggests only mediocre success on the lawn.

KOC has success with cheapies that are Shipping + UC, but this is a bit of a stretch.

Saver Trifectas 6,9/4,5/4,5,6,9 (8 bets) if alive in the Pick 3

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/24/2021

On a day when I should have just watched the Premier

League, and drink beer with the English and Irish

patrons at Murphy’s, I instead attempted to solve an

otherwise bleak card at the track …. and we all know

the outcome ….today, however, we have the postponed

Wednesday Turf Sprint Festival Day (Tampa loves its

festivals….) which actually has attracted some very

nice horseflesh (well, the Turf Dash anyway) …..

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 2, 5

              3) 5, 6, 7

              4) 2, 8

              5) 1, 5, 9

                                $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 1, 2, 6, 9

              7) 2 **

              8) 1, 3, 4, 8

              9) 2, 7

                               $ 16.00

** Best Bet              

*****

Wednesday, February 17th

A quirky card today, with the leaders having only 12 starters and many races with short fields and now they are off the turf. I suspect that it will be a good day for gambling.

1^st – Jose Delgado has jumped on the UCE bandwagon and he’s 3-7 Win and 5-7 ITM with them with both ITM twice. Jose’s been going to Castillo and not Hernandez and PP1 wake up may have been a fluke as the track was drying out in the late races on Sunday afternoon. Before that PP1 was 1-44 recently. Delgado is 24 & 55 with Plain Shortenups, while Arnett is 1-13 with same.

Trifectas All/5/All (20 bets)

And/or DDs 3,6/2,3

2^nd – Rodriguez is 51% Win when the favorite on the Plain Stretchout in 37 tries, but will his piece be the top choice? Gallardo’s been hot, but tends to tank when bet down. He has been a reliable 33% Win for Delgado, but should be at least 47 or 48% Win.

Ferrer is tops in dirt sprints and is up for the other Delgado, who is 21 & 51 with his angle at Gulfstream (and about the same here at Tampa). Doc Amster (2) was entered as an N1X in last two (and not for the tag) earning an upgrade from me here.

Trifectas All/4/All (20 bets)

And/or DDs 2,3/3,4

3^rd – Another UCE for Delgado in the 3^rd, this one from top Tampa barn of Carole Starr (52% ITM). Jose’s had several ITM with Herrera up in just a handful of tries and done nothing with Mena (now 1-37 recently). Striking Heir, the winner of the #1s last, came back to be above par in an OST, a good sign.

Trifectas All/1/All (20 bets)

And or DDs 3,4/5

4^th – Bennett is 45 & 78 if the top choice with this angle, but a Bennett maiden that has done little in six starts is dicey.

McCarthy’s piece was above par in last three tries and gets Ferrer in this sprint. Brenda is 10% Win with these three singles and she won 12% in P3T. This one should help out her stats for 20-21.

If 3 is the favorite, Trifectas All/3/All (25 bets), otherwise no play

5^th – OFF TURF – Maker has an AEPS of $8308 on the grass and Time for Trouble (7) has made several par late fractions recently. Funny how that last race before shipping often looks so bad….

PP1 on the lawn remains 1-41 recently. PR will be at 22 feet for 2^nd day after a 5-day hiatus. With temperate temperatures since Sunday, the going may be very good for front runners today.

Exactas 4,6/4,6,7,9 (6 bets)

And Saver DDs 3,5,7,9/2,4,6

Trifecta Box 1,2,7,10

6^th – Exacta Box 2,4,6

Pick 4 – 2,4,6/5,8,9/All/9

Saver DDs 2,4,6/6 to cover

7^th – OFF TURF – Carvajal Jr must have been surprised when Mr. Who (8) woke up when shipping him from down south for Pinchin. Luis wasn’t expected to do anything in that one. He more than triples his strike rate with 2Ss versus Ss, but Pinchin is 2-61 in P3 on the grass and Carvajal Jr. is 20 & 40 with 2PTBs in L5T, not exactly a power angle.

Pringle is 2 for last 134 on the grass and Connelly is 3% Win with Shippers, and Allen Jr. has only one win a 8.5F or longer since last July.

Trifecta Box 5,6,8,9

ATB 10 (Best Value)

8^th – Pass

9^th – Lady Breanna (6) has untouchable Quirins and Bennett has 75 wins with the Dropdown + Favorite angle (41% Win). Centeno is up. If you are gonna “single”, this is the one. You may recall, that Breanna went only two clicks slower than Heiressall, winner of the $100K Sire Stakes on Dec. 12^th.

Win 6

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/17/2021

 Tough beat in leg 3 of the early play on Sunday

harpooned the chances of a decent return for a

$12 play …. and the best bet obviously wanted

no part of the bumper car start, and just quit …

Hopefully, Ma Nature has no hand in today’s 

encounters ….

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 2, 3

              3) 4, 6, 7

              4) 3, 5, 6

              5) 5, 7

                            $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 2, 6

              7) 1, 6, 8, 9

              8) 4**

              9) 1, 4, 6

                           $12.00

** Best Bet

******

Feb. 10th

“What if joy is the whole game, not just the end game.” – Super Bowl LV commercial or Michelob Ultra

 1^st – My Cowboy (4), a 9YO, has only one double lifetime and no hat tricks. Doctor No can’t be relied upon and Arnett is only 1-7 Win with Plain Stretchouts. However, he is 87% ITM when the favorite.

Bennett has no blemishes here and his piece went +4,+3 in last and shortens up today. Gerry is 31% Win with RBs and is par with RtSs.

DD 6/2,5

2^nd – Van Winkle is 39% Win with Non-layoff Dirt Sprints.

Arnett is 1-10 with UCEs but with 7 ITM. PP1 is 1-28 recently after only a brief recovery, so gimme the 5 with Camacho up.

DDs 2,5/3,7

Saver Trifectas All/2,5/All (32 bets) to cover both DDs (R1 and R2)

3^rd – Paynter Fest (3) has soft Quirins but dueled with two different runners for 5/8^ths in last. Camacho sticks. Gotta give it a play.

With the exception of three consecutive wins recently (all PTBs recently btw!), Waz has not had two consecutive winners since Dec. 2014 and back to back wins with the same runner? Well, I gave up looking…

See R2

4^th – Exacta Box 1,6,9

5^th – Everybody out of the Indimaaj race is live.

Pick 3 – 2,4,5,7/3,4,5/2,9 (24 bets)

6^th – See R5

7^th – Clean records and solid pilots are enough for me here.

Saver Trifectas if alive in the Pick 3 – 1,4,5,8,10/2,9/2,4,5,8,9 (34 bets)

Pick 3 – 2,9/1,8,9/2,3,7,8

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/10/2021

Sunday’s Best Bet torpedoed the value late play, as

after the scratches, it was sawed down to a $6 play.

Nuff said … riding on Saturday’s big card caused a

small stir (more in NY than here) after the Endeavour

as Junior Alvarado and Ademar Santos almost got into

it on the walkback ….just to offer my 2 cents on the

matter ….seems like the “experts” don’t think the

floating on the far turn was cause for the Alvarado

hook ….and guess what ??!! you’re correct !! however

the Clubhouse turn entrance was the culprit, as Santos

came over on Junior, almost causing a spill, as Junior

had to snatch his mount who was over heels ….anyway

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 4, 5

              3) 1, 3, 7

              4) 3, 6, 9

              5) 3, 4

                            $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 3, 6, 10

              7) 1, 4, 9

              8) 3, 4, 8, 9

              9) 2**

                            $18.00

** Best Bet

*******

Wednesday, February 3^rd

The Prisoner is a 1967 UK science fiction–allegorical television series about a man who is kidnapped from his London home and awakens in a secret location known to its inhabitants as The Village, where he is known only as Number Six, where his captors try to find out why he abruptly resigned from his job.

The introduction:

Number Six: Where am I?

Number Two: In the Village.

Number Six: What do you want?

Number Two: Information.

Number Six: Whose side are you on?

Number Two: That would be telling. We want information… information… information.

Number Six: You won’t get it.

Number Two: By hook or by crook, we will.

Number Six: Who are you?

Number Two: The new Number Two.

Number Six: Who is Number One?

Number Two: You are Number Six.

Number Six: I am not a number! I am a free man!

Number Two: [laughs]

Almost everything I’ve created Trainer Profiling over the past 30 years relies upon Information, and only that information which the sharks don’t have. Whatever they are doing, its usually not what we are doing, giving us, theoretically anyway, an edge.

Today, Arnett presents with three 1 for 10 Win multiple angle plays in races 2,3 & 4 and we’ll try to exploit that little crack, along with a little help from Doctor No (who remains 32% Win at odds of 3/2 or <).

1^st – Two consecutive above par efforts and a 33% & 67% angle with FBKs look good for Delgado. If favored Jose is 36 & 72 here.

Past APD Rattlesnake Rose (6) went fast early and shortens up for Bennett. Ya never know.

Win 1

Saver DD 1/3

Saver Trifectas 6/1/2,3 to cover

2^nd – Stidham is 28 & 52 with Plain Dropdowns but aside from par win in the SLOP has been in over his head.

Favoritism should go to Delgado here and if so, Jose is 13-21 Win with his angle. Of course, he has Doctor No up. Gallardo lost 3 of the last 4 when he was the favorite for Delgado. Maybe he’ll try here (maybe he won’t). If Antonio isn’t under the thumb of The Mob (like Judge Desiato in Showtime’s “Your Honor”), he is going straight to hell when his number is up. Thou shalt not steal you bastard!

Trifecta Box 1,4,5,7

3^{rd –}  Machado was ITM in 8 of last 12 at $9-1 odds, he’s definitely on a roll. He outperforms with Plain Stretchouts (IV1.50) and Nicole Munnings (4) is another APD.

ATB 4

4^th – This might be Arnett’s best chance today (but it is yet another 1-10 win angle.

Doctor No made his signature losing move in last on Do What It Takes (5), missing the break and improving position from the 2^nd flight at even money. We’ve seen it so many times now, it’s pathetic. Gallardo owes him one again here.

Trifecta Box 4,5,6,7

5^th – Hemingway is overdue like the Student Loan payments of an unemployed service worker during the pandemic.  Chick’s Shadow (2) was above par in last two. 8-1 ML is absurd. Switches to red hot Centeno 33 & 75 in 12 starts this past week.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,5 and Trifectas 2,5/All/2,5 (12 bets) to cover

Pick 3 – 2,5/2,3/1,2,7 (12 bets)

6^th – Trifectas 2,3/6,8/2,3,6,8 (8 bets)

$2 Pick 4 – 2,3,6,8/1,2,7/3,5,8/9 (36 bets) ($72)

7^th – Yanez doubles his ordinary strike rate with FBKs. He’s 52% ITM with No Change types and Elusive Ryder (2) made a +2 late fraction in last (albeit a sub-par event).

Sixty-nine per cent of all Ryan’s wins have been Shortenups in L6T (55 of 80). Unabridged (7) was par in last and Ryan is 71% ITM if favored here. Again Centeno is up.

Exacta Box 1,2,7

8^th – This OC draws a dream field for us punters. Six of eight have only 1 win in this N1X and they have to go up against two that are legitimate contenders. This price will be oppressive and if it’s not, the smart money will be doing the talking.

Exacta Box 3,5,8

9^th – Endsley Oaks debuts these freshmen conditioners like Apple debuts new Iphones. Same shit, different day. They all have a common denominator, bomb maker Don Roberson (4 bombs in the last month). Lest the bettors get wise and spoil the party, they obfuscate yet again, trying to put us off the scent so to speak. Dontlosethatnumber (9) went 102 early at 9F in last and the parallel time chart puts that effort worthy of a top billing today.

Be like Rikki, and don’t lose this number.

Saver Trifectas 1,3,5,6/9/1,3,5,6

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 02/03/2021

Basically a clunker on Sunday, what with seconditis, a Best

Bet that took the day off and a hit and run by Galapagos.

…..good news, it was only a 28 sheckel bath … the only

thing that saved the day for yours truly, was a get out bet

on Wasiluk in the nightcap ….surprised I got on it, after

Peter Griffin won the 8th, which set me off …..anyway …

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 5, 6

              3) 2, 5, 7

              4) 4, 6

              5) 2, 4, 8

                             $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 2, 3, 4, 6

              7) 1, 2, 7

              8) 5 **

              9) 2, 5, 6

                            $18.00

** Best Bet

*******

Wednesday, Jan. 27^th

There’s still time to subscribe at the pro-rated rate of $64 for the remainder of the meeting. My Pick 4 on Saturday would cover your subscription for the rest of your life (and your daughter’s life) and Mr. Pick Four’s on Sunday would cover the remainder of the meeting with beer money left over. You couldn’t get a half a pretzel for what we give you for a buck a day. (Just make your payment and the difference will be refunded.)

1^st – The restricted types have an IV of 1.29 in these OCs for 3YOs, giving a leg up to Arnett’s piece and Arnett won in both tries with the 2L1-3 + S, however, he is only 2-11 with PTBs.

Stidham has two distinct 35% Win singles and also goes as an N1X.

Trifectas 1,5/3,6/1,3,5,6 (8 bets)

2^nd – Ya gotta follow the money here. Fan Fan (2) was par in last and KOC is 38% Win when the top choice in this scenario. Fan Fan took a beating at the start in debut. Grimhilde (7) was two clicks better than par in last and Bennett is 47% when he gets the action as a Plain Stretchout. I’m calling them co-favorites.

Exacta Box 2,7

3^rd – Among all active Tampa trainers, Arriagada has the best “Claimed From” record with 16 of 30 winning in their first few tries and with only two that went to the glue factory. Multi-level class drop says “give me my $6720 check and I’ll let this 9YO become someone else’s problem.”

Bennett has first No Change of the meeting here and the angle is a pretty big weakness for Gerry. His IV with these is 0.58.

Waz continues to look for the bug next to his final odds, but with an 8% Win angle with Plain Stretchouts, that doesn’t appear likely.

Guciardo is 50% ITM with 2L4-8s, but 8YO Gold Wing (2) is no Nolan Ryan. He spends a lot of time resting.

Weighted DDs – 2,4,7/3,5 (6 bets)

4^th – A race sometimes gifts us with automatic eliminations. Peter Knoll has only six starts in the last 10 years. Devin Cook is 0-36 lifetime. Rafael Schisti makes career debut with a UCE. Michael Bray is 0-27 lifetime. Chrystal Lanum is now 0-29 lifetime.

1,2,4,6,8 & 10 are tossed.

Of the four remaining, Bowersock is 1-23 with 2TTs (but they may be trying) and Lusk’s piece clearly doesn’t figure.

Pick 3 -3,5/2,3,4,5,6/1,7 (20 bets)

5^th – See R4

6^th – Delagdo claimed back High Five Cotton (1) at a premium for top rated stable of Carole Star. Got away with qualifying for the nickel starter after poor start in first off the claim from Bennett back in May. The son of High Cotton is 27 (9-2-7) in Sprints and condition is not in question.

Behavin Jerry was foaled in 1964 and won a race in 1981 at age 17, so when you look at Bowersock’s 11 YO cash machine, have a little perspective. Bowersock tells us the oldtimer is working like a 2YO. All that is great, but Divine Ambition (2) has never won off the layoff.

Delgado is 26 & 63 with Plain Stretchouts and 50% Win if favored.

Ferraro is 2-27 with RBs, while Arnett is 1-12 with same and Arnett is only 7% Win wit Stretchouts.

Exacta Box 1,7 if favoritism is to the 7

7^th – KOC has a couple of first time at the meeting angles and they always get me excited. Kathy is 9-15 with the FBK + StR and 5-9 ITM with the FBK + 3TT at $15-1. KOC is off her regular riders here?!?! Is it because she knows that Samy brings home the bombs?

Sweet Giant (6) and Dramatic Kitten both made my trip notes on 12/23 for having troubled trips (in the same race) but both have subsequently failed and while sub-par.

Ed Williams is 6-7 ITM at $25-1 with StR + Class Change types. Looks like 25-1 to me.

Exacta Key Box 7/4,5,6,10 – if 13 and/or 14 are in drop the 10 first and add 13 or 14, then the 5 and add 13 or 14

If 13 & 14 are out, then Pick 3 – 7/4,6,7/All (30 bets)

and Saver Pick 3s – 4,6/4,6,7/2,(11) to cover

8^th – Exacta Box 4,6,7

9^th – When I look at this race, the “sprechgesang” sounds of Fred Schneider are retrieved from my memory bank of the punk rock era, long past but ever present:

Everybody’s movin’, everybody’s groovin’ baby! (from Love Shack – the B52s)

All

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 01/27/2021

A scant nose cost us a clean sweep on Sunday, but with the way things have been going, we’ll take that $103 in the first play, everyday ….it only leaves us a deficit of $8100 to catch the Editor Emeritus ….anyway, today’s card is yet another example of dartboard handicapping, which seems to be the norm as of late …take away the turf races, and it would appear to resemble Fairmount Park  …..oh well, at least it’s a full card ….

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 2, 6, 7

              3) 5, 6

              4) 3, 5, 7

              5) 2, 5

                          $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 2, 5, 7

              7) 2, 6

              8) 6, 7

              9) 2, 3, 6

                          $18.00

No Best Bet

*****

Wednesday, Jan. 20^th

I’ve had a flurry of longshots finish 3^rd recently and I’m not one to swim against the tide. Today, I try to exploit my current situation for the good (for the time being).

1^st – Mr. Bennett is 47 & 80 in 200 tries if the favorite with this angle (and 29 & 63 if not the top choice.

Ochoa was off sluggishly but was ITM in 3 of last 6 and he’s over his infatuation with Urdaneta, having all of his good luck with Ordonez this meeting. He has much better luck on the FBK when going longer (rather than shorter), nevertheless Tale of VK (1) was closest enough to par for a piece and Ochoa towers over these trainers for ITM Value Index. He’s #3 among all trainers here. I suspect the curse of PP1 has been broken. I saw a Haitian punter at the gate doing a Smoke Cleansing on Sunday morning. All is goood maan…

Ward has not missed the board since Christmas. Can’t be left out.

Pimental is 0-19 with Rightbacks.

Win 3 if the favorite and Trifectas 3/1,4/1,4 (2 bets), otherwise

DDs 3,4/1,2,4,5

2^nd – Barboza’s piece (as well as the 1 & 7) come out of a miserably sub-par affair that went 68-82 in a par 80-88, but Madame Moon (5) has been searching with limited success for a surface and distance that will get it done. Machado was off to a good start but is slumping recently (1-21 win and only 5 ITM). I AM A. Luring (4) must have been trying a long odds in last two. I just can’t go there with an 0-24 maiden.

Weighted Trifectas 5/1,4/2 (2 bets) and

Saver Trifectas 1,4/2,5/2,5 (4 bets)

3^rd – Arriagada is 87% ITM since Christmas and he’s 44% ITM with FBKs and 51% ITM with Shortenups. Florida Two Step (6) woke up two weeks ago with a +5,+5, but Van Winkle is 0-18 with RBs. Ochoa is 4-55 Win with 2Ls (but that is par for him).

Exacta Key Box 4/1,5,6

unless 2 is the favorite, then Exacta Box 2,4,6

4^th – Our Grey Ghost (9) made a big move through the far turn and lasting to the finish in last. The 3YO made a +5 final fraction and a +2 Final Quirin and comes back on 14 days rest. The other Gaffneys have had 5 cusp of a FBK wins in L5T. Does the angle run in the family? Are they family? I’d would suspect they are. Emmy Gaffney has an AEPS here that is just as good as Proctor’s, Ryan’s or Hamm’s.

$3 Trifectas All/1,8/9 (16 bets) ($48)

5^th – $1.00 Trifectas 3,4,7,8/3,4,7,8/1 (12 bets)($12)

6^th – KOC is 0-64 with this angle and is summarily tossed.

When multiple angles become labyrinthine they usually lead to nowhere. Negrete’s has seven different angles. Toss it.

Trifecta Box 1,4,7,(12) or 1,2,4,7 if the 12 is out

7^th – Pass

8^th – Stidham has an IV of 0.66 with the L1-3 + 2S.

Delacour is 85% ITM with UCEs. The pricey one goes for Grier, whose AEPS is about 40% higher than Thayer’s, but the wealthy socialite’s homebred doesn’t look bad either.

Doctor No is up again for Chad Brown. He still has when IV of about 0.58 when odds-on despite a trio of such winners recently.

The AE (#14) part of Sidham’s UCE has a 45% Win angle.

Exacta Key Box 14/2,4,10 if 14 is in, otherwise

Exacta Key Box 10/2,9 and Trifectas 10/4,8/2,9

9^th – Potts goes off HVG for Doctor No here. He and Gallardo are 20 & 60 at the meeting. Potts has a 67% ITM angle in 50 tries and MZV was above par two back at 8.5F. I just can’t go to Mr. Unreliable (a.k.a Gallardo)

The Inmates – Mr. Unreliable – YouTube

$0.50 Trifectas 5,6,7,9,10/5,6,7,9,10/5,7 (24 bets) ($12)

 

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 01/20/2021

Used the fancy soap on the rope, for the bath on

Sunday …excellent, that there were 2 days off,

as the old noggin was spinnin …today’s 2nd is one

that I’ll be questioned on ….a case could be made

for all but two in here, the 2 & 3, normally making

it a 5 horse play … so why the 2 ??!! …I’ll be 

damned if the lady who got my best bet beat by

35 lengths in R 7 Sunday is gonna get a chance to

kill a nice paying P 4 on me … thus no “All” !!!

 

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

               2) 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7

               3) 1, 4, 6

               4) 8 **

               5) 2, 8

                                $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

               6) 4, 6

               7) 1, 3, 6

               8) 1, 10

               9) 2, 3, 6, 7

                               $24.00

** Best Bet

*****

Wednesday, Jan. 13^th

1^st – Stidham is 57 & 83 with the S + Favorite angle, but he’s 1-4 with Gallardo up and none of those was < 2-1 (he has 6 wins with H. Diaz Jr.).

Hamm’s 2TS by #2 Sire in the Southeast, First Dude, didn’t challenge +9 EP in debut, remaining in the 2^nd flight early, but finished par. WA Garcia is 10 (3-0-3) recently and sticks.

When I was a tunnel rat*, we had a saying (it was actually wishful thinking or a perhaps a prayer), the gist of which was “if the Water Department shuts off the water, there can be no fire in the tunnel”. Along that line of thinking, I’ll suggest that “If Grunder can’t pronounce it, it can’t win!”. See #2

*along with Glenn Hughes, the original Leatherman from the Village People (may he RIP)

Harty has no single < 50% ITM and is 38% Win with favoritism.

Exacta Box 3,6 and Saver Trifecta 3,6/4,5/2,3,4,5,6

2^nd – I was initially interested in Arboritanza’s piece here, but Joe has not had a winner with Cotto up in at least six years.

What a shitshow:

Dini subpar with every single;

O’connor 1-26 with Rightbacks;

Guciardo 1-45 with 2L1-3s;

Rarick 1-39 with PTBs;

Pimental 3-74 with Plain UC types.

Favoritism is to the 4, I suppose. If odds-on, it will win.

Pass

3^rd – KOC has a nice bet against. She’s 7-94 with the 2S + Surface Change for an IV of 0.34 and with Gallardo up and not the favorite, Kathy is only 9-86 Win (10%). Toss it!

Another bet against here: Bennett 2-38 with the L1-3 + UC + StR.

Now this could get interesting…

Exacta Key Box 2/4,5,6,8 (I may tweet a prime play here @tamselections)

4^th – Nothing but dilemmas here:

Ox Trot (1) has the best Quirins and the worst Post Position.

Mr. Bennett’s piece went -10, -7 in first try but he’s 46 & 81 with FBKs when favored.

Doctor No is 0-6 with Arnett’s L + S types.

Exacta Key Box 3/1,7,8

5^th – Pick 3 – 2,5,6/3,7,8,9,11/2,3,5 (45 bets)

6^th – Again, we have KOC/Gallardo when not the favorite: 9-86.

Raymond is now 1-56 with L4-8s here.

Sierra Cat (8) got my antennas buzzing. Santa Cruz Ranch has had a relationship with Horacio Barbaron (banned for life in Jan. 2017) and wouldn’t you know it, Jose A Chavez, the conditioner of #9, Imperial Palace. Rizo, whose AEPS is better than most here in Oldsmar, makes first appearance in L5T. I would not be surprised if something was brewing….

8/3,7,9,11

7^th – Weather Underground indicates they will go on the lawn.

Tsirigotis is nearly 50% ITM at < 20-1 and should almost never be tossed, so don’t toss Toss!

Gulick babysits for Block here and the latter is 32% Win with his angle. Doctor No’s value increases if longer and decreases if shorter. Wait and see…

Trifectas 2,3,5/1,6,7/2,3,5 (18 bets)

8^th – Arriagada is 57% Win if favored here and Shall Return (8) was two better than par in last.

DDs 8/5,7,9,(13)

Trifectas 8/1,2,5,7,9,10,11/2,5 (12 bets)

9^th – There’s a lot of cheddar tied up in Lovely Trophy Girl (8). She may be pretty like most trophy girls tend to be, but nothing else adds up. In for MC16 in debut while Stidham is only 5% win with FTS + FTT lifetime. 5-2?  Toss it.

See R8

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 01/13/2021

Have a big need to shake the seconditis that plagued us

over the weekend …one quick note on Skip Einhorn… he

has been popping numbers like he did on Friday up at the

Jersey Shore for years …no shock, but on paper was

very hard to take …hard to believe he didn’t show up in

JB’s stats …he will next time ….on we go

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

               2) 2, 5

               3) 2, 4

               4) 1, 7, 8

               5) 1, 5, 7

                          $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

               6) 1, 4, 5

               7) 2, 5, 8

               8) 8 **

               9) 1, 8, 10

                          $13.50

** Best Bet

******

Wednesday, Jan. 6^th

Sometimes we are uninspired. It’s one of those days.

1^st – Arnett’s piece has had two chances to make par and came up short twice. The 4^th and 5^th finishers in 1^st try, put Thrown for a Loupe (4) away in next start on the Stretchout. However, both the 4 & 5 went +10 early in their last starts. That kind of pace might be a bit much for KOC firster here. Owner/Breeder Joe Dibello has only one career starter and that puts me off the son of Exclusive Quality (12.3% Win here in L10T). Everybody was about to catch Lil Green Machine in the final strides in Tampa debut. Stretchout is questionable.

PPs 2-5 have an IV of 1.46 since Christmas Eve.

Trifectas 4,5/1,4,5/1,3,4,5

Pick 3 – 4,5/2,4,5/3,5,7

2^nd – When Ronnie Allen Jr. went AWOL on Feb. 2^nd 2019, Bowersock quickly learned that she might have more success without her longtime partner in the irons. Since then, she is 20 & 52 with other riders up. Maria presents with a UCE here and I’ll take the one with Hernandez riding.

Mr. Bennett is 33 & 77 with UCEs and in a six horse field, must be deadly.

See R1

3^rd – Melassani (3) drops in class. Ali isn’t big on layoffs and a couple of works would have been nice to see.

Machado is 63% ITM with FBKs and 63% ITM with Camacho up. Gotta give a major piece.

Exacta Key Box 5/3,7

4^th – Arnett is 75% ITM moving UC and his piece was closest to par in last.

Ferraro is winless with the L1-3 + 2S in L10T

Carvajal Jr. is 0-32 with StRs.

DD 8/2 and Trifectas 8/All/1

Pick 3 – 8/2/4,7,8,10,11

5^th – Stidham is 37 & 53 with 2TTs. There are no chinks in Tete a Tete’s (2) armor.

Doctor No is up and is the saver only for Kenneally. He’s now 5-25 when < 3-2.

Motion is 14% Win with StRs.

Saver Exactas 4,6,7/2 to cover

7^th – Yanez is 50% ITM with UCEs and both of these have a 35% ITM at $29-1 odds.

Pick 3 – 2/1,2,3,5,6,11/1,2,3,7 or single the 12 if in the 9th

Saver Trifecta 3/2,5/2,5,6,8 (6 bets)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 01/06/2021

OK, so Saffie has the monkey off his back, but I’m not

so sure everything is Ivory just yet ..keep a close eye …

Galapagos continues to cause hair loss, but he remains a

toss for me if he’s the ML fav ..am I crazy ?? … not

thinking so …and for today, we have the newly turned 3

YO’s getting their first dose of Lasix, which makes these

3 YO races a crap shoot … where is Kreskin when you

need him ??!!???

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 2, 4, 5

              3) 3, 6, 7

              4) 2, 3, 7, 8

              5) 7 **

                           $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 7, 8

              7) 1, 2, 5

              8) 3, 5

              9) 2, 7,(12)

                           $12 ($18)

** Best Bet

************

Wednesday, Dec. 30^th

The stars are aligned for Mr. Pick Four and I today. That means we either crush it or are totally annihilated.

1^st – Market (7) made +7 final fraction in debut while checked for room in the final strides behind the decelerating winner. Watching the races can sometimes make your hair stand up (what’s left of it anyway).

Mr. Bennett is now 33 & 77 with UCEs.

Arnett won the race within a race on Dec. 9^th.

Conditional $10 ATB 7 for 4-1 to 9-1

2^nd – If favoritism is to Princess Livia (4) Bennett is 96% ITM. She’s also part of a Bennett UCE (see R1). If not the favorite, things are more complicated.

Arnett’s piece is out of an N2Y/N4L and has Doctor No up (Gallardo). PP1 has an IV of 0.42 in the last 40 races.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,3,6 if 4 is the favorite, otherwise

Trifecta Box 2,3,4,6 (24 bets)

3^rd – Arnett’s UCE doesn’t look like much, but this SOB is 25 and 75 with UCEs with both in the money 3 times in 4 tries.

Delgado is 44 & 77 when the favorite on the Rightback and presumably will be after above par effort in last. Dr. No is 3-7 and 6-7 for Delgado but has missed at odds on and 3-2.

Delgado’s other piece (5) has Jiminez up. Manny has won only 8% since losing the Bug.

Machado is 60% ITM with FBKs with 3 bombs and Nicole Munnings (7) was an APD here last winter.

Pick 3 – 1,2,7/3,5/2,3,6,9

4^th – Olympic Romp (1) was beaten by a couple of N3Ls in last.

Fourteen tries for maiden win says “I’m not special” about It’s Mandatory (2). UIC five steps? I don’t think so…

Inevitable speed duel by 5 & 6 sets up The Curt Fox (4) nicely but Guciardo is 0-33 with FBKs and I won’t go there.

That leaves us with Bennett’s Exchequer (3) who made career best in last dirt route. Bennett is 26 & 63 with TtoDs.

Trifectas 3,5/All/3,5 (10 bets)

5^th – Delacour is 0-8 with the 6.5F to T 1Mi move.

Trifecta Box 2,3,6,9

6^th – Silver Edge (3) was par for Total Energy (T/E) in last two and Potts in 10 & 67 with Plain Shortenups.

Valiant Virtue (4) went +9,0 in the SLOP and Arriagada is 23 & 51 with Shortenups and is 11 & 44 with FBKs.

Bennett is the one who appears ready to upset the apple cart. He is 36 & 68 with FBKs and 21 & 61 with RtSs. Switches to Camacho.

$50 Weighted Pick 3 – 3,4,6/9/5

7^th – Arnett does little on the grass but Jeff Barkley is 12 & 45 LT with an AEPS 50% higher than Tampa’s leaders. Queen of the Green (9) made + 3 ½ FF in last and appears “most likely to succeed” this afternoon.

Saver Trifectas 2,8,10/9/2,8,10 ( 6 bets) if alive in the Pick 3 to cover

8^th – KOC is Tampa’s all time leader with FTS + Dirt, with a whopping 27 & 51 record and Kathy is 18 & 46 with 2YO + Dirt with an AEPS of $5158. 6-1 is a gift.

Saver Trifectas 3,9,10/5/3,9,10 (6 bets) if still alive in the Pick 3 to cover

9^th –  Sienkewicz took the pandemic as seriously as I did and he hasn’t had a starter since March 20^th. Whether he’s liquidated I can’t say, but Harry Hoglander has sold his ½ of the Hoglander/Gump duo’s 2nd top horse, Pudding (Zefiro was their top horse) to the latter and I’m buying too. In last, Pudding finished up close the 3X APD Twocubanbrothersu, and he beat Tudox Expectations, who was 2^nd to Indimaaj (back to back winner with big numbers here recently). He also put away Bowersock’s walking ATM, Divine Ambition, on several occasions. Readiness is all that keeps pudding from being my dessert.

Conditional $50 ATB 5 for > 2-1

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/30/2020

OK … Sunday… toss the early play as we were whitewashed

HOWEVER, after the first 2 legs of the late play, I thought

we were home free … THEN, Gallardo thinks he’s running in

a sprint, instead of a mile and runs the absolute best in the

race into submission … 3/4’s in 11 & a piece then 7 in 23 !

I’m just having a hard time watching some of his races last

year and now this … some very fishy rides …my rant, my

opinion …..loaded with 2YO’s today, thank God it’s the last

of these (until Friday, when they turn 3)

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 3, 6

              3) 3, 5, 6

              4) 1, 5, 6

              5) 2, 9

                        $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

              6) 3, 4

              7) 9 **

              8) 3, 5, 9, 10

              9) 3, 5, 9

                         $18.00

** Best Bet

*****

MASK UP BITCHES!

Wednesday, Dec. 23rd

 1^st – Bennett is 0-6 with this angle at the current meeting, but he is historically 31 & 61 with the angle. If the top choice in the betting, his IV is 1.35 here. If Stewart is the favorite, he is 46% Win with his angle.

Follow the money…

2^nd – Potts has bombed with 6 of 20 Shippers in L2T and he’s 4 for 6 ITM with Gallardo up with 2 Wins presently. Tudox (1) went -3 against the outside bias on Dec. 27^th. According to Bris, Tudox subsequently made three superior efforts.

Arnett has no angles here.

Rigattieri has conflicting angles: IV 0.63 with RBs and 30% Win with FBKs. I found only one occasion of the RB + FBK in L5T, and it was a Winner (Doodle Hopper in 2017). I gotta assume this one is well intended too.

Delgado is now 1-13 when UC + Not the Favorite.

Indimaaj (6) made $100K Claiming numbers in last (115-109). Today’s par is 105-102.

Exacta Key Box 6/1,3

Pick 3 – 1,3,6/1-5,8/2,4 (36 bets)

3^rd – I ain’t no Fortune Teller and that’s what is required here…

See R2

4^th – Ward is historically 44% ITM with 2YOs and is 0-4 at the meeting with them. All Fool’s Day (2) made +8 EP in last and Ward is par with StRs.

Harty has angles galore here. 80% ITM with 2L1-3 + 3TSs, 80% ITM with 2L1-3 + No Class Changes, 21 & 42 with StRs and 67% Win when the favorite in StRs. Ghostzapper is sire to 42% winners amongst all starters.

See R2

5^th – Williams is 86% ITM at $25-1 odds with the UC + StR move  and 13 & 45 with Plain FBKs. Plus 10 EP in last provides a hint.

Avila’s piece made par in last and he is 12 & 40 on the lawn. Switches to Centeno.

$25 Exacta Box 9,14 and $10 ATB 14 otherwise,

Exacta Key Box 9/2,4,7

6^th – Being short on opinions here, a whimsical, Christmas comes early play (if it does).

Trifectas All/8/9 (7 bets)

Pick 4 – All/3/2,6,9,10 (36 bets)

7^th – Agripino (3) comes out of a good race. He went +8 early before packing it in in last. Obiwan was 2^nd on the RB in N3L. Fly Nightly was poised to pounce in deep stretch in next try, but Severino batched his late run again and Brice (4^th) was an up close 3^rd in next. Chavez is 25 & 42 with 2L4-8s and he is our #3 bomb maker and has that distinction for six consecutive years now.

Saver Exacta 10/3 to cover the Pick 3

8^th – DDs 4/2,6,9,10

9^th – Brnjas is best known for her G1 win with Johnny Bear at in the Northern Dancer Turf Stakes at Woodbine in 2017, but she’s left an indelible impression with me here in Oldsmar as well. Ashlee is 26 & 56 on the grass here in L5T and is 80% ITM with the L + S + Shortenup during the same period. Insider Trading (7) stays with Colebrook Farms, her employer.

Granitz is 26 & 47 with his multiple angle. Camacho is up on this colt that frequently make above par final fractions.

Exacta Key 4/5,6,7 (8 if a jockey change)

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/23/2020

On Sunday, the Best Bet was squeezed right out of contention and costing us the late play … that’s racing … I always accept the good with the bad …speaking of bad, one only needs to peruse the PP’s for today’s card to see the bottom of the ocean …. with thanks to David Byrne ….same as it ever was ….

Talking Heads – Once in a Lifetime (Official Video) – YouTube

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

              2) 2, 5, 6

              3) 4, 7

              4) 1, 2, 4

              5) 8, 9

                         $18.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

             6) 2, 3, 6, 8

             7) 2, 10

             8) 6, 10

             9) 3, 4

                        $16.00

** No Best Bet 

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Talking Heads – Once in a Lifetime (Official Video)

Talking Heads – Once in a Lifetime (Official Video)

****

Wednesday, Dec. 16th

1^st – In any other field, Vice Grip (3) might be summarily eliminated, but versus these, not so much. Granitz is a value trainer and owner Ed Seltzer is a long time Tampa veteran with a record of success. Ulloa put me off, but a deeper dive reveals his AEPS is 40% higher than the average Tampa pilot. Vice Grip’s last trip was painful to watch, but her sustained rally is something to hang our hat’s on. Reluctantly…

Win 3

2^nd – Stidham’s Contraflow (3) checks all the boxes for me. Stidham is 36% Win with 2TSs and StRs and is 58% ITM with Long Layoffs. His regular boy is up on this son of #12 leading sire Street Sense (four GSW colts on the dirt in 2020).

Harty has no history of success in Lexington, so we figure Moonshine Steve (2) made a short stopover after seven-hour trip from Erie, PA in the same way that Motel 6 leaves the light on for ya when you are on your way to warmer climes.

Brisset had three maiden winners at the last meeting and has a +423 ROI with longshots here since 2015. If he takes the money, he hasn’t missed the board in five tries in this situation during the same period. Either way this Tapit colt could surprise.

Proctor is 66% ITM with the Dropdown + StR move and is 18 & 45 with 2TSs. His regular boy, KJ Coa is MIA. Hernandez could do for Proctor what he has been able to do for KOC (19 & 44). We’ll see…

Exacta Key Box 3/4,5

3^rd – Four for four ITM with a three characteristic multiple angle doesn’t sound like anything to get too excited about, but when you’ve only had 73 starts in L3T, it looks a little better. So does the $7-1 average odds they went off at. Munoz.

When it comes to distance changes, Rodriguez does his best work with Stretchouts. Darien switches to Centeno here for the win.

Pott’s piece went +1, +3 in last and he is 66% ITM with his angle. Fifty-six year old Jose Ferrer has underperformed at 8.5F here for the last four years and this is a game of inches.

Only if R4 goes on the Turf does this DD take the action (you might have to guess if it will)

$150 Weighted DDs 4/5,6,9

$7 Saver Pick 3 – 8/5,6,9/6

Exactas 4/1,8 and Trifectas 4/1,8/1,8

If this becomes an OST, the 5 will likely be out, and 11 in. Arboritanza is 30% win in OSTs and Dangerous Curves (3) made +20 EP in last start a 1 Mile last season. Potts is OST neutral, but Gallardo, that pig, he loves the SLOP. Chavez is 33 &83 in OSTs. Double booking of Castanon leaves an unanswered question, qt least for now.

Trifecta Box 3,6,9,11 or Exacta Box if only three go

4^th – The 5,6 & 9 come out of a race that went 106-98 and today’s par is 90-90 as they Shortenup.

Sano is 50 & 67 with his angle in 8 tries. Kemosabe (Potts) gives sidekick Tonto (HVG – winless since Day 2) a day off and goes to Gallardo. They are 2-7 Win in L5T. Chavez is 50% ITM with 2^nd off the Long Layoff types.

Exacta Box 5,6,9 and Trifectas 5,6,9/3,4,10,11/5,6,9

5^th – With action so short on value, you gotta find a way to slash spending, but not haphazardly.  Rigattieri has an IV of 0.63 on the Rightback and 8YO Doodle Hopper (8) has had three bad breaks here recently. This would be a good time to have another.

Mr. Lightning Boy (6) was beaten by two that won three of their last four in that NW4 in 12Mos, last time out, so we’ll upgrade that race and call it the closest thing to a legit 20K claimer in this race. Ricky makes first appearance for his Dad at the meeting today. Coincidence? I don’t think so…

Exacta Key Box 6/5,7 or ATB 6 if in the SLOP

Pick 3 – 6/2-8/5,6,9 (21 bets)

6^th – Bennett presents with a mixed bag, but as always: “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.” He will have a 47% Win angle here, but at the same time is only 12% Win with the 6 1/2F to 1 Mi Turf move (6 for 46). Could win but won’t more than 53% of the time.

Top riders are up on Guciardo duo that both have 4% Win angles. What’s up with that?

See R5

7^th – Ninety eight per cent of all winners at 7F were < 2 ½ beaten lengths at the 2^nd Call here last year. First Degree (6) may be an exception as Arriagada is 33 & 60 with Rightbacks

Exacta Box 5,6,9 If in the SLOP – PASS

Pick 3 – 5,6,9/7,8,10/6,9,10 (27 Bets) SLOP – PASS

8^th – Most of these suffer from Stretchout Gap Syndrome, but Obiwan (7) went + 11 faster early than any of them that went on Nov. 27^th. Again, Feliciano may be tipping his hand, as Ricky, who has finally arrived, is off this one in favor of the leading rider who gets the return call.

Bennett’s piece made par FF at 8 ½ last spring. He has that 41% win angle going and surprised with it 3X already at the meeting.

See R7 and Trifecta Box 7,8,10,11 if 11 draws in

If in the SLOP ATB 7

9^th – See R7

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/16/2020

Just a typical Saturday at Tampa …. I had a bad feeling

about the Marion County Winner, but still shied from it, &

eventually tossed it (along with the rest of the card) ….

.. hey, I’ll be the first to admit when I suck, and on that

and the rest of the card, …I did …JB gives you Free Play

Wednesdays, I’m gonna start giving “No Suck Wednesdays”

….. can I get an UGH !!???

Early Pic 4 …. $.50

             2) 3, 4

             3) 1, 4, 7, 8

             4) 8, 9

             5) 1, 4

                           $16.00

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

             6) 4, 5, 8

             7) 6, 8, 10

             8) 6**

             9) 9, 10

                          $9.00

** Best Bet

*****

Wednesday, Dec. 9^th

1^st – Rhone presents with a 100% ITM angle (7-7) with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown + Stretchout, while connections are looking for a check badly as their $10K claim (and one and only runner) has returned a meager $2672 and the bills are piling up. Has no win angle here.

Exactas All/2

2^nd – Harty has first runner of the meeting that’s not a 1^st 3 M or a 1^st 3 T. He was 20 & 60 with this type last season but is only par when the favorite in this situation. Owner Calumet Farms are only 27% ITM here in L2T from 18 starts. Looks like the next stop for Rag Tag may be the Island of Misfit Toys.

Hamm was 33% ITM with FTSs here on when the meeting began and has missed twice. One of them will pop soon.

ATB 6

3^rd – Unlike Machado who is always trying in first start off the layoff (see #1) and does little with 2Ls, Gonzalez is just the opposite, winning 12% with L1-3s and 22% with 2L1-3s). Her and Spieth average 9 starts at each meeting before having a winner and they are 8 (0-0-0) right now. Gonz has a UCE here, but the writing is on the wall. She is 0-12 with only 1 ITM with any other rider up. So, the 7 simply reduces the field by one.

Padilla is 3% Win with RtSs.

McGoey is only apparent threat as she is 19 & 63 with her angle and another trainer we haven’t seen in a few years, Alejandro Reyes, was 40% ITM here with Barry Rose PTBs at $23-1. I smell a rat!

I live for DDs like this one, win or lose….

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 5,8 and $125 Weighted DDs 5,8/3,7,8

4^th – Hemingway is 0-26 with the L1-3 + Stretchout.

Chavez is 0-18 with RtSs with only 4 ITM.

Lawrence Heath’s Calogero (7) grabs my attention. This long layoff made “”Holy Shit” +15 above the bullet par 6F work at the Classic Mile a few weeks back. Tried to disguise next work by moving to the lawn, but that one went +6 too.

See R3 but if not alive in the DD $15 ATB 7

5^th – Class Gaps are sensitive to both horizontal or distance changes (8F to 8.5F) and vertical or class changes. Interestingly, the MSW class at 8.5F is actually superior to that of the C25 N2L at 8.5F (98-98 vs. 97-95).

With this in mind, the 4 (been there, done that) and arguably the 6 (with a +4 final fraction at the class and distance despite being well beaten) are top contenders using this metric. On the other hand, neither the 4 or the 6 has any win angle here.

Manning’s piece moves from a 96-93 to a 97-95, but made a sub-par 88-92 in maiden win, leaving us with no enthusiasm for Florida’s Express (8).

Through the process of elimination, Stidham, who is 37% Win with FTTs and 36% With with StRs, as well as a history of bombing with this type, gets our stamp of approval.

ATB 3

6^th – Bennett is 18 & 51 with FTS + Dirt + Sprint types, but most were maiden claimers.

Arriagada is 14 & 71 with the same kind and had three 1^st 3 M bombs recently here. His two other Estilo (that’s Style to you gringos) horses are 13-22 ITM at Tampa. Coincidence?

Sweezey has two distinct ITM angles: L1-3 + 2TS 70% ITM and Shipper + Dropdown + < $6-1 odds 71% ITM.

Trifecta Box 1,2,4,6 and

Pick 3 – 1,2,4,6/1,5/4,6,8,9,12,(13) (but I’m saving my money for another day)

7^th – Back to the lawn and the class gaps. Collins’ piece moves from a 94-92 to a 90-90 after making a 105-92 in first try. He outperforms slightly with Non-layoffs on the Turf and Mahkato (1) does have that once over thing (IV 1.58) going for her.

As you recall, horses claimed from the Ramseys were 44 & 78 in first OC since 2013 at average odds of 5-2. At this meeting, one has won and the other was OOM, however like the other winner, and unlike the loser, this one’s conditioner has a winning angle also. Rodriguez is 32 & 59 with UC + Distance Change types and 33 & 48 with L4-8s here. Act Like Artie (5) has made two big final fractions, a +10 and a +6.

Exacta Box 1,5 and Saver Trifectas 1,5/2,3,4,6/1,5 (8 bets)

8^th – See R6

9^th – The 5,6,7,8,10 & 11 all come out of a miserably sub-par race on Opening Day and I’m tossing them, along with the 1 (Rice 4% LT Turf) and the 2 (Arnett with only 30 LT starts on the lawn and 0-4 at Tampa thus far).

3,9,12 Exacta Box (but only if the 12 goes) otherwise Exacta Box 2,3,9

******

Wednesday, Dec. 2^nd

1^st – #2 was last while finishing 3^rd, won on OFF track. Not for me. USS Lois is first winner at this track level for Mr. Lawrence. I don’t see lightning striking twice. Delgado is 1-17 in 1^st 3 off the claim. Seven time beaten favorite won’t get my support.

Machado doesn’t win with this angle but a piece seems likely for this Monmouth shipper with hot rider Camacho up.

Weighted Exactas All/3

2^nd – Professional (2) beat the runner with the Golden Rail bias on April 25^th here (albeit sub-par) and in an ironic twist returns to Tampa under the care of the Tampa newcomer Jon Arnett. Improved sharply while racing for bigger purses recently. I’m calling this a class drop.

$10 Conditional ATB 2 for 7-2

3^rd – Doodle Hooper (2) loves our Oldsmar oval and was entered for $8K only twice in the last 34 months. Fits the conditions best, however Rigattieri has some sub-par singles.

Rodriguez’s piece was par twice last winter here and Darien is 33 & 50 with L4-8s and won 34% with Gallardo up in L3T.

A Bet Against further increase our interest. Ferraro runner had third fastest 4F work of pre-season with his piece, but he is 0-16 off razor sharp works.

Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.66 with his three characteristic angle. Gotta try to beat him when you can.

$25 Weighted Exacta Box 2,3

4^th – Christmas could come early for supporters of Purple Peopleeater (8). Thirty-year Tampa Veteran Donald Hunt is 86% ITM with 3TSs here in L7T, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume he was trying with this one last month at GPW after the filly vied early in previous. Of course, the OFF TRACK or the awkward break may have clipped the lit fuse, I’m guessing of course. However, Hunt is 25 & 50 here with 2L1-3s, and 63% ITM with StRs and he goes to Camacho. Worth a shot versus these.

$7 ATB 8

5^th – Everything about Oxburger (7) looks OK but betting a trainer that is 2-43 on the grass in 2020 is hard to swallow.

Conditional Win 7 for 5-2 or >, otherwise pass

6^th – Sweezey bombs often with lightly raced types. He is 68% ITM with this multiple angle and is 45% ITM at $7-1 with L1-3s and 33% ITM with PTBs.

Exacta Key Box 6/4,5,12

7^th – If you follow Mr. Pick Four’s advice, I suspect you’ll be betting Clement here, but for the last 13 years, you would have lost 40 cents of every dollar betting Clement whenever he was the favorite.

Trifecta Box 1,3,6,10 if Gaelic Gold (3) is the favorite, otherwise

Exacta Key Box 3/1,6,10

$5 or $3 (if 12 is in) Saver Pick 3 – 1,3,6,10/4/3,(12) (4 or 8 bets)

8^th – Sweezey has a Bet Against here. He’s 0-9 with none ITM with Shipper + UC types.

Carrasco Jr. missed with a 47% win angle in last, outdone by Dini UCE double and 56-1 outlier from Pimental. Was simply outgunned, making a par Quirin. Victor is 57% Win with 2L1-3 + Stretchouts and 31% Win with Non-layoff + Non-shipping + 2OC angle. If the favorite here, he’s 66% Win. Once over the track runners historically have an IV of 1.58 here before Christmas day. Don’t break my heart baby, even though that’s what u do…

$50 Win 5 (Bustin Hearts) and Saver see R7

(if ML of 5-1 holds up, then $40 Win and Place)

9^th – Another once over gets top billing in the nitecap. Rodriguez is 32% Win with UC + Distance Change types and is almost always there on the FBK. Awesome Enough’s (3) %E is 51% and that is in the zone for the StR move (50% is ideal).

Win 3 or Exacta Box 3,12 if the 12 draws in

Mr. Pick 4 at Tamps for 12/2/2020

***************************

IT’s FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY – Nov. 25, 2020

1st – Darien Rodriguez is 32% Win with UC + Distance Change types and 78% ITM if the favorite when on the Rightback + Stretchout. Trejos, voted 2018’s Outstanding Rider at the Pincay Jr. School in Panama, has 57 Wins since April 18^th. His agent, Jose Sanchez, says “he’s very serious and is here to win” (and that’s the kind we want to support).

Delgado is 21% Win and 54% ITM with PTBs and Monmouth shippers have an IV of 1.25 here. He appears to try off sharp works (limited data).

Newcomer, Jon Arnett, may be likened to the Gerald Bennett of the Midwest, only with a 30% higher AEPS. He may take some time to find his sea legs, but he will be a major player here in Oldsmar.

Bennett could deliver, while Roberson is 0-24 with L1-3s.

Exacta Key 7/2,3 and Saver Trifectas 7/1,4/2,3

2^nd – Bennett’s IV is 0.82 with MSWs and 1.14 with MCs. Gerry has the winningest record here with 2YOs (23%), and outperforms with all his singles, except the 2TS (15% Win). He has been going to reliable Alvarado Jr. lately (10% W and 46% ITM in 2020).

Mike Dini’s fortunes have turned around significantly in the past few years with an AEPS that went from < $2000 prior to 2016, to about $4200 since then. He has a couple of strengths here: L1-3 + S + Surface Change 65% ITM and TtoD + RtS 52% ITM, but he’s soft with 2YOs 8% Win and is only 8% Win off Sharp Works. However, if Baby Bee Merry (2) is the favorite, Dini is 30% Win and 70% ITM in this situation.

If 2 is not the favorite, then 7 (R Averie Lynn) Win

3^rd – You could take a flier here. Ryan made our Value Trainer list this past season and just missed in 18-19. He’s 11% Win with 2YOs and has all solid singles here (but no multiple angle play).

Harty is 1-15 with UCEs here and that powers down my interest meter.

Highly Noted (8) is a Zerpa PTB. Down south, Zerpa is solid with 2YOs (22% Win) and with Non-layoffs on the Turf (18% Win) and this one has had enough betting action to keep our attention. How often they wake up after miserable performances.

Conditional ATB 8 for 6-1 or less

4^th – Another Bennett/Dini faceoff that shapes up just about the same way.

Bennett is 48% Win and 80% ITM when the favorite on the Fastback and 60% Win when 2L1-3 + Fastback with 43 of 45 ITM. He was 25% Win with Camacho up last season.

Dini drops Sunshine Charlie (1) out of a C12,500 N1Y here and he goes to Ferrer (21% Win in Sprints at the last meeting). Mike is again, 30 & 70 with TtoDs when the favorite.

BEST BET – If 1 is not the favorite, then 6 (Perfetto) Win for 4-5 or >

5^th – Tropical Storm Eta dumped 6 inches on the track on the 12^th but it has been dry since, making for a speed favoring turf course on Opening Day. Last season 21% won from the front at this distance no matter how beat up the lawn got over time.

I usually toss Mountaineer runners summarily, having played forty $500 Pick 5 tickets there in 2014 (for a $6K profit, I might add) but this one I’m giving a second look. Skippy went twice on the dirt there in the Fall after doing his best work on the grass, but I observed that every runner in those two optional claimers were entered for the Open $15k tags. The previous start at Cby was for NW2 in 6 Months or $35K and Skip was entered for the tag having won two in July and August. He made a par Final Fraction in 1 Mile turf win and likes the front. Butler’s numbers have been dragged down by the floundering Bernell Rhone these past few years. Expect more from this solid rider. SCRATCHED

Win 7

6^th – Bennett is 41% Win with his three characteristic multiple angle and he’s 24% Win with RtSs. Delaware shippers have an IV 1.12. Again, Gerry goes to Alvarado Jr.

Rodriguez, a Value Trainer leader, is 33% Win and 56% ITM with L1-3 + Stretchout types.  He’s got all solid singles and Awesome Enough (11) has been working sharply.

Exacta Box 4,11

7^th – These SALW16s usually draw from the same pool as the Open 16s or Optional Claimers for N1X or N2Ls. With the exception of the 1, that’s pretty much what we have here, however, Bowersock is 1-40 with L4-8s and GP Shippers have an IV of 0.63, so it’s adios to Suzie for the time being.

Dini’s Catsoutofthebag (4) fits the bill.

Granitz has been hot with 5 winners in November and he could keep the party going with a 26% Win angle for Kanfu (10) (L1-3 + UC) and he’s a Value Trainer leader for Win too!

Trifectas 4,5,8,10/4,10/4,5,8,10 (12 bets)

8^th – For the last 10 years, 61% of these OCs for older horses has been won by a runner with at least 3 wins and 3 N1X starts or a previous N1X winner entered for a tag, leaving us with four who fit the bill.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, favoritism will play a major role in our final decision on which way to go here. Delgado (#2) is 58% Win with L1-3s when the top choice and Arriagada (#4) is 42% Win when Shipping and the top betting choice. So….

If 3 (Exchequer) is the favorite, then Win 3

If 2 (High Five Cotton) is the favorite, then Exacta Box 2,3

If neither 2,3 or 4 is the favorite, then Exacta Box 2,3,6

9^th – Stidham is 55% Win when Shipping and the Favorite and 31% Win with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown. He is our #2 Value Trainer for win this year (Jonathan Thomas is #1). He reunites Skol Chant (7) with #7 rider at Monmouth through the Summer and Fall, Hector Diaz Jr. Skol Chant has two above par Final Fractions and drops to this level for the first time.

Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/1,4,6,9

Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 11/25/2020

New outfits in the barn area, new faces in the jock’s room. These

new factors could make it interesting on track compared to the

shenanigans we endured last meet. Hell, Barile may be able to

provide us with a few winners even …. Best Luck for a profitable

meet to all …..

Early Pic 4 ….$.50 

            2) 2, 7, 8

            3) 3, 8, 9

            4) 6

            5) 2, 3, 7

                         $13.50

Late Pic 4 …. $.50

            6) 3, 4, 10, 11

            7) 2, 3, 5

            8) 2, 3

            9) 7 **

                         $18.00

** Best Bet

******

July 1, 2020 – We commence the 20-21 Meeting with, arguably, our best handicapping day ever. Our $0.50 action play Late Pick Four returned $2285.10 (on the $20 bet). Our five “Bet Against” picks all lost at average odds of 8/5. We had the 3^rd race Exacta – $8.80, the 4^th race Exacta $97, the 6^th race Winner – $4.80 (and were necked out of the 5 & 6 DD) and the 8^th race Winner $25.80. All action for the day: Bet $250, Collect $2946.10. So it goes…

******

FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY selections were not extended during the double OT period (June 1 – July 1) out of respect for our regular subscribers. They will resume in November, 2020.

*******

IT’S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY!  May 27th

Just a few notes regarding Saturday….Waz again was cold on the board and finished up the track in R1 without the smart money (despite a strong win angle). Amiss took the money in R3 as I suspected, but he failed to deliver. In R4 the two “Claimed From” runners ran 2^nd and 4^th. Our “rock solid bet against” (Guciardo/Gallardo) finished 8 lengths back at 5-2 in R7. Centeno was taken off Seventysevenwilow in R8, ripping the crotch out of that play. Proctor surprised in R9 and is now 2-29 with 1^st 3 Mdn types in L2T. Bomb watch for Saturday: Six (including two double bombers) at average odds of $39-1. So it goes…

Patrons are reminded that only those pre-paid for the 2020-2021 meeting will continue to receive our selections after the 2nd extension of the meeting begins on June 1^st (I just can’t do this for less than $1 a day). Paypal your $100 subscription payment to thetbdhandicapper@gmail.com to be subscribed through June 30^th of next year (2021).

Expecting only a small fraction of our subscribers to take advantage of this offer with all the other action available elsewhere now and with no FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY postings planned, I’m going to resume wagering on June 1^st. I’ve done my best to make my point (in my county 1 in every 38 residents has had Covid-19 and IMO they really should have closed the track), but there will be some nice betting opportunities with a much smaller pool of bettors in the mix and I don’t want to miss out. Good luck and good racing!

1^st – I’ve said it again and again that MATPs work best with horses that have already done what they are being asked to do today and this is in direct opposition to trying to pick winners among maidens with more than a handful of tries under their belt. With that said, Hem has two > 50% ITM MATPs and another where he is 41% ITM at $9-1.

Weighted DDs 1,5,7/7

2^nd – Sunset Empire (7) has been close to or above par all winter and needs only the right spot to get it done for Granitz, who is now 6-13 Win with the Plain Dropdown + StR.

According to my Fortune Teller: Angel number 777 is a message from your guardian angel that you were made in God’s image and are perfect just as you are.

I’d be happy just to be perfect on this one occasion, thank you very much!

Pick 3 – 7/7/7

3^rd – The 7 & 8 were well above par in OST that saw Taos roll with a 110-108. Taos returned to the lawn on May 22^nd and made a par 100 in ALWN1X on the grass.  Today’s turf par is 93-93. Give it to Drillomatic (7) who was par in last two on the grass and whose trainer is 26 & 71 in 1^st 3 OC.

Stidham has a soft weakness here. He’s only 2-14 Win with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown angle in L2T.

Watching that rain fly off the lawn last week gives you an idea how hard and tight that base beneath the lawn must be. The Portable Rail is definitely moved today and that will help out front running types, particularly at 8F.

Exacta Key 7/1,5,6

4^th – Rodriguez is 50 & 83 when the favorite on the TtoD move. He outperforms with all his singles here.

Carrasco Jr. sits for Correas IV, who has moved on (to CD on Memorial Day). Ignacio has no angle here.

Win 7 and DD 7/4,8

5^th – Lerman comes to the party as the only one with shelter, and that type has an IV of 1.27 in these races in L10T. He’s also 4-13 Win and 8-13 ITM with Centeno up in L5T. Tournesol, the winner of Joyous Times’ (4) last finished up close in a SALW Stakes in February and Yolanda’s Pride, the winner of the filly’s 2^nd most recent was 2^nd in an N1X in a subsequent start. $50K claim speaks loudly to me.

Fortunate Cat (8) comes back fast after making 106-97 in last. Today’s par is 98-98. Owner Chapman was a fixture here prior to 2014. Her last winner here was her namesake, Carolyn M. in 2012. It romped at odds-on with Rojo up (and we were all over it). Chapman had an AEPS of $2137 (in pre-2014 dollars) and was 9 & 32 from 494 starters lifetime. Where has she been? Who knows. Down on her luck? In silent partnerships? Taking care of her mother? Your guess is as good as mine. But I’ll give her a spin…

Exacta Box 4,8 and Trifectas 4,8/1,5/1,4,5,8

6^th – Pass

7^th – Some of the $$$ is diverted undeservedly here, perhaps making for an opportunity.

Hess Jr. is 0-19 in L5GP with Layoffs on the Turf.

Chad Brown is only 3-20 Win with RB + UC types here. Triple seems unlikely.

Pick 3 – 3,5,7/4,6,8,10/2

8^th – Exacta Key Box 6/4,8,10

9^th – I’ve begun to notice that Stidham and Sweezey seem to frequently appear in the same race. I won’t go to the trouble to be sure, but I did go back two years and observed that whenever they were both entered, one of them won or was ITM 27% and 68% respectively (with both ITM 14% of the time). Just sayin’…

Michael has a UCE and he’s 34 & 64 with these with both ITM 43% of the time. Both have satisfactory win angles here.

Kent is 0-12 with the FTS + FTT with 2 ITM.

KOC is 39 & 63 if favored with this 3TS.

Saver Trifectas if alive in the Pick 3 – 3,6,9,(12),(13)/2/3,6,9,(12),(13)

Mr. Pick Four to follow.

*******

Wednesday, May 20^th

1^st – Bennett’s piece was sub-par by 17, 8 and 10 in last three and he’s sub-par with StRs (IV 0.71).

Caruso is 26 & 46 with his angle. Karma King (2) fits best.

Gatis is 73% ITM with No Changes. Jimmy D (6) descends in a bad way. Negrete is 0-22 with L4-8s.

Exacta Key 2/3,4,5,8

2^nd – This one is academic. Ferraro is 11-24 ITM with FBKs and he’s got six going today. Is he all out or is this just one (last race) for the road?

DDs 4,5,8/6 And Trifectas 4,5,8/2,3/4,5,8

3^rd – KOC is now 57-126 or 45% Win when the favorite on the Shortenup including 6 of 8 Win at the current meeting.

Best Bet – Win 6

DDs 6/4,6,8,11

Saver Exactas 3,8/6 if alive in the DD and to cover both DDs.

4^th – How the hell does KOC double her pleasure with both having 33 & 74 angles and a positive ROI of 71 cents with FTSs and they both are 8-1? I wouldn’t be surprised if both were ITM.

Trifecta Box 4,6,8,11

5^th – Mr. Bennett is a reliable 120-204 ITM with the Plain Dropdown + Stretchout. I’m willing to spin the wheel here.

Trifectas All/4,8,11/1 (30 bets)

6^th – Exacta Key Box 9/6,8,10

7^th – Pick 3 – All/1/5 (12 bets)

8^th – The big guns look very tough here.  Silverly Enough (1) has N1X win under his belt and scratched after being entered for 16K in another optional claimer down south. Gets a nice spot here. Hess Jr. is 19 and 51 on the Dirt at GP with a whopping AEPS of $7583 (about 30% greater than Clement).

Raymond has four singles and not one has a double-digit win angle.

Value Play – Win 1

9^th – Dropdown + Shortenup works for Stidham. He’s 44 & 63 with these.

Saver Trifectas 1,2,4,10/5/1,2,4,10 (12 bets) if alive in the Pick 3,  otherwise Win 5

*******

May 13th, 2020

It isn’t cheap to keep playing wild exotics between boxcar scores (even in The Upside Down), so today, we’ll be keeping it simple for those with more of an appetite for the mundane, while also offering the regular menu.

1^st – Arriagada is 4-9 Win and 6-9 ITM with the TtoD + Dropdown and better than 50% ITM with L1-3 and Shortenups.

ATB 2 or Trifectas All/2/1,6,7,8

2^nd – Like many women, you can’t live with Baxter and you can’t live without her. She’s 21 (8-4-3) with today’s angle. Last went at 1-5 and looked like one.

Boyce has been surprising lately, but she’s 3-50 with Dropdowns and 2-46 pilot doesn’t help either.

Pass or Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/3,8,10

3^rd – We are utilizing the revised Turf Par adjustments in this one and going forward and will retroactively recalculate the Turf Quirins for the meeting on or about June 1^st.

Tiznoise (3) went +10, +5 in OST at 11F and is surely likely to benefit from the Shortenup today. Drastic drop in odds might ordinarily be something to get excited about, but last was a 4 horse field.

Stidham missed when he was supposed to pop with Imaginary Friend (6) (see 2TS + 2TT 47 & 60), then KOC put up sub-par numbers in first two off the claim. Could get a piece, but don’t hold your breath.

ATB 3 or Trifectas All/3/1,5,6,(11),(13)

4^th – Courtesy of the DRF for your edification:

“Race 4, the maiden sprint, is carded at six furlongs and restricted to 3-year-olds. A couple key DRF Formulator stats make 2-1 morning-line favorite Onward, a tricky horse with some talent, difficult to read.

A $600,000 auction purchase by Street Sense, Onward debuted with a solid fourth behind victorious Tap It to Win (who won again last Saturday at Gulfstream) and ran his best race when he disputed the pace and held second of 11 in a seven-furlong Aqueduct maiden special weight Nov. 9. A month later, Onward went slightly backward in another New York maiden start, this one at a mile, and his 3-year-old debut, March 14 at Gulfstream, saw him deliver easily his worst performance.

Trainer Christophe Clement makes two key moves with Onward, sending him to Tampa and racing him for the first time in blinkers. Clement’s record with dirt-sprint maiden special weight starters at Tampa is remarkable: five wins from his last six starters. Only one of those winners was an odds-on favorite and the one loser was a first-time starter prepping for turf-route racing.

The first-time blinkers move, though: The last five years, blinkers on with dirt-sprint maidens, Clement is 8-0-0-2, and all but two of those starters went off at 6-1 or lower.

Onward has been posting Payson Park bullet drills since his only race this year, and at his 2019 best wins this.

Drawn on the rail is first-time starter Branco Maria, whose trainer, Mike Stidham, has an unusual record with debuting horses at Tampa, where he’s run a winter string for three seasons. Stidham has won with two of the five Tampa first-time starters that ran in dirt-sprint maiden special weight races – good, but a small sample. The unusual thing: During the same period, Stidham has sent out 19 first-time starters in maiden special route races. Only one of those horses won.

Branco Maria, by Candy Ride, should be used, as should Falkirk, who finished encouragingly in his lone start, a key-race maiden sprint in September at Churchill. One of those three – Onward, Branco Maria, or Falkirk – should win.”

(I note that Wilkes is only 6% Win with 2TSs here and that Clement does much better with Long Layoffs and 2LLs than L1-3s.)

ATB 1

5^th – Bowersock is 1-41 with L4-8s and this one will surely be the favorite.

ATB 14 or All/1,5,6/9 if 14 is out (24 bets)

6^th – Esor (5) (Latin: There isn’t any) reason not to play Carrasco’s piece. The colt made par numbers while up against the Golden Rail in last and has carried that early speed a bit further in each successive start.

ATB 5 or Trifectas 2,5/2,5,8,9/2,5,8,9

7^th – Stewart has hit the board in 5 of last 7 but still hasn’t had a chance to execute on his very best angle: 44% Win and 92% ITM when the favorite off the Layoff. Today might be the day.

Classy of Course (5) went +11, +4 two back then was sub-par on the Shortenup. Not very encouraging, still, McGoey is 9-14 ITM with her angle.

Win and Place 10 if the favorite and Exacta Key Box 10/4,5 if 10 is the favorite, otherwise

Exacta Box 4,5,10

8^th – Rosas Way (10) gave way after failing to find the sweet spot on Golden Rail day, but, was par in previous two in FAST sprints. Could offer the most value all day.

ATB 10 – Best Value and Exacta Key Box 10/2,4,8

9^th – Joseph Jr. is 22 & 57 with his angle at GP with a whopping $4515 AEPS.A sweeter condition could not have arrived on Christmas morning.

Arriagada (see #5) has gone on a claiming tear, claiming 7 and winning with 6 this season.

Harty is ITM in 6 of last 7 with 3 Wins and he’s 59% ITM with Caramelito’s (9) angle.

The other Arriagada runner (10) has 16 & 48 angle and was par in last two. Juan has also been hot with 7 of 10 ITM with 3 wins in April and May.

ATB 3 Best Bet or Exacta Key Box 3/9,10

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 05/13/2020

Hard to believe, BUT, after tossing him on favs all meet long,

Gallardo comes through on the best bet Saturday, as R Next

Roll’s stats and figs were just too much the best for any

sort of “bad” ride that could have been given her. Not that

it was any sort of help, as the rest of the pics simply just

didn’t show up …..been the same old song all meet long ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 8** WT 1, 5, 6, 7, 10 WT 1, 2, 3 WT

                           2, 5, 9 … $.50 … $22.50

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 8, 9 WT 5, 10, (12) WT 7, 9, 11

                           WT 3** … $.50 … $9.00 ($13.50)

Co-Best Bets **

****

May 6th, 2020

We are in uncharted waters now. Three bonus weeks of mayhem, brought to you by Covid-19. I continue to boycott the track staying open by not wagering. I’m living in the epicenter of the pandemic. NY’s curve is flattening while the rest of the lower 48 are going up, up, up. I just feel like I have to make a stand. To each his own.  Best luck!

1^st – After maiden win, Fast Fairy (2) got the slap down that we often see in herd dynamics. “Know your place, boy!”  It often takes a couple of hits, but eventually, most figure out that the guys on the other team put their pads on the same way you do. Maiden win went better than par. EP was par on the grass in last.

Padilla was 1-30 with StRs, but then won 3 of 10 at the current meeting. What are we to do with that?

Dig In (6) is sub-par, but Mr. Bennett’s runners are taught to have self-esteem.

ATB 2 for a big price

2^nd – Wasiluk’s Mister Mister (1) went 91-86 while four wide versus the Golden Rail in last (today’s par is 92-92). When a 7% trainer has a 25 & 62 angle (Plain FBK + Stretchout + No Class change), it’s gotta be given a piece.

Like Padilla (in R1) Raymond was 10-53 Win with Plain Stretchouts on Nov. 26^th, but at the current meeting he’s 0-18 with the angle. However, Raymond, uncannily, was 30% ITM at $11-1 (in 272 tries) with his angle coming into the meeting and is 30% ITM at $12-1 at the current meeting (in 60 tries). Line maker says chances are better than that, but I won’t go that far.

Ochoa is 1-23 with RtSs.

Caruso is 0-6 here with FTSs but is 16 & 40 at PID with same in L5PID.

Just Shoot Already (2) experienced a squib load in last. It happens…but Wright is 70% ITM with Plain Stretchouts.

Exacta Key Box 1/4,5 and Saver Trifectas 1,4,5/2,7/1,4,5 (12 bets)

3^rd – If KOC gets the action, she is 44 & 75 with her angle. She’s had good luck with Wilmer Garcia at the meeting.

Correas IV is only 6-61 with Stretchouts and is 0-20 with them at the meeting and has had no luck with Gallardo up.

Hinsley is 0-30 with PTBs and Hem is 0-27 with Layoff + Stretchout types.

DDs 1/7 and Trifectas 1/All/3,7,13 if 1 is the favorite, otherwise

Trifectas All/1/3,7,13 (up to 30 bets)

ATB 1 and Saver DD 7/7

4^th – Saver Trifectas 2,3,6/7/2,3,6 (6 bets) if the DD is live, otherwise

Exacta Key Box 7/2,3,6

5^th – McGaughey and Clement have 38% Win and 53% Win angles respectively here. Sweezey has the 3+3, was 4 better than par in last and has a 62% ITM angle here.

Falcone is 16 & 30 with Layoffs on the Turf between Gulfstream and Aqueduct in L5. Barron is 1-44 with Non-shipping L1-3s. Rigattieri is 22 & 54 with Shortenups.

Exacta Box 7,8,9 and Saver Trifectas 1,7,8/9/1,7,8 (6 bets)

6^th – Granitz, our #1 Value Trainer coming into the meeting, is one of only two red hot conditioners with runners today. Tony won 7 of last 21 with 13 ITM. Gallardo only won once as the favorite for Granitz at the meeting. This race could be the triple bomb du jour.

All/5,6,7/5,6,7 (27 bets) and Saver Trifectas 5,6,7/10/5,6,7 (6 bets)

7^th – Stidham is the other guy that’s on fire, 8 of last 9 ITM with 6 wins. He’s 50% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s.

Hinsley’s piece returns to battle 3YOs again after the whoop ass was put on him by the older boys. Last versus own kind was better than par.

Hamm is 8-51 win with L4-8s. Lopez is 10% LT on the lawn. Threatens…

Exacta Key Box 9/6,8

8^th – Stidham is 7-15 Win with 2TS + 2TT types. He’s also 9-14 ITM with UCEs with both ITM 6 times. He’s gone to Suarez and not Centeno. McGaughey is 36 & 55 with Non-layoffs on the Turf. Son of Curlin remains with Sam-son, leading us to conclude that Sweezey just babysits today. Motion is a miserable 1-35 Win with Non-shipping L1-3s. With a %E of 51.25, Charliecando (4) fits going a mile.

Exacta Box 6,8 and Saver Trifectas 6,8/2,4,9/2,4,6,8,9 (18 bets)

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 05/06/2020

Welcome to the extension …not to be confused with the Summer Festival

of Racing, which, as we know, turns Tampa Downs into Ocala Downs. Seems

pretty much the same so far …wonder if the shenanigans on track continue

……….Barile, I’m sure, has the number of bombs to “figure” horse 

percentages, which have to be astronomical …. will Barile’s “Upside Down”

world continue even as some outfits head back to the midwest, which seems

ready to open back up?? …Will Pastor Johnny Collins lead the trainers ?

Will Chuckie Lopez roar back as a leading rider ? …. stay tuned, it’s all

about to play out …..12 whole days 

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 5, 7 WT 1, 2, 6 WT 3** WT 4, 7, 8

                             … $.50 … $13.50

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1, 4, 5, 7, 8 WT 5, 10 WT 6** WT 8, 9

                             … $.50 … $10.00

*******

April 29th, 2020

1^st – Pimental is not known for UCEs but he’s 3-3 with them at the meeting. Suarez was up on two of the three. John reprises his April 8^th UCE here, a race in which both were trying and almost both hit the board (they finished heads apart). The Great Loudini (10) got the worst of it, having to overcome a horrible start. Loudini made a +10 final fraction in huge effort to get a piece and must get the nod again today. Pimental has an IV of 2.12 with No Change types. Mrs. Bennett is 1-12 with longshots in L5T but Camacho stays on…

Win 10 and Trifectas 10/1,2,4,9/1,2,4,9 (12 bets)

2^nd – Harty is 7-41 Win (17%) with Non-layoff + Non-shipping TtoDs, but he is 100% ITM (10-10) with 4 Wins when odds on in L2T. It’s a Sophie’s Choice. Nevertheless, Accessible (5) was par or better in both tries on the dirt.

Jonathan Thomas is 42 and 75 with 2TSs and while they usually go postward as the favorite off solid debuts, Jonathan did bomb three times with them too in L5T.

Exacta Box 3,5 for a fighting chance to make 2-1

3^rd – A very tough race indeed. Terranova has 26% Win and 36% Win angles and is 39% Win with Camacho up. Wish Upon (2) made a +5 final fraction in Hillsborough despite trouncing. McGaughey is 20 (7-3-2) with Layoffs on the Turf here and has an AEPS of $10,326 with same, the best among these by far. The tell for Lerman/Centeno appears to be action. The team is 7-7 ITM when the favorite. We’re willing to bend the rules a tad here. Having dinner and talking horses some years ago, Bennett challenged me on the usefulness of figures on the grass. He insisted that unless they can finish up real close (< 1BL), they should be tossed. I’ll take his advice here with regards to Distinctive Flower (10).

Exacta Box 2,8,9 if Red Curls is at least the 2^nd choice, otherwise

DDs 2,8/1 if 1 is the top choice in the DD probables and Trifectas 2,8/3,6,9/2,3,4,6,8,9 (24 bets)

4^th – Harty is 41% Win if the top choice when on the dropdown (and only 18% when not). Bennett’s piece was par in last. Delgado is 19% and 54% with his angle.

Trifectas 1/8/2,8 if 1 is the favorite, otherwise

Trifectas 1,2,8/All/1,2,8 (36 bets)

5^th – Brown is 84% ITM (52-62) here and 78% ITM with L4-8s. The restricted types have an IV of 1.27 in these OCs for 3YOs in L10T. The 10 and the 9 went just 4 and 5 clicks slower respectively than the Hillsborough GII and multiple Graded Stakes winning Starship Jubilee on March 7^th. The 9 came back with a +15, +4 better than par effort on April 1^st.

Connelly is 0-33 with L4-8s and 2-59 with Shippers. The cadet bearing her name gets no more than a piece.

Exacta Key Box 3/9,10

6^th – Sweezey does the honors for Delacour who is taking the stay at home order seriously. The last one, Milburn won handily (for Granitz). Delacour is 65% win with the TtoD move when the favorite and has all winning singles here.

If 13 doesn’t go, Yanez is 9-14 or 64% ITM with 4 Wins and our action devolves in that manner.

Win 13 or Exacta Key Box 9/All (22 bets) bombs away

7^th – Last Promise (7) is a technical drop in class ( The Curt Fox was a legit C25 claimer) on the Rightback and I must give a piece here. Underutilized Santos is hungry and has 7 of last 14 win or place. The 6YO also has the desirable 3+3.

Clement has an IV of 0.69 and an ROI of -$0.93 when the favorite. When not the favorite, he 21% Win with a +$0.37 ROI. My kinda guy.

Exacta Key Box 7/1,8,10 and Saver Trifectas 1,7/3,5,9/1,7,10 (12 bets)

8^th – With 56% ITM in FTS + FTT races in 40 tries, Clement is the most reliable here.

Exacta Key Box 3/1,4,9 and Saver Trifectas All/3/1,9 (18 bets)

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 04/29/2020

Gotta give props where props are due … Barile steals my show by banging

out a $272 late P 4 on Sunday ….just a note here … he waits for my

selections, and then plays all the numbers I have left off ….after 5 years

he finally clix …..with 13 dates left, I’m sure we can bounce him off his

self-constructed throne ….we’ll start here …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 3, 5 WT 2, 6, 8 WT 2, 4 WT 5, 10

                             … $.50 … $18.00 

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 3, 5, 8, 10 WT 1, 8, 9 WT 1** WT 3, 6, 8

                             … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

******

IT’S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY! April 22nd, 2020

Oh, Superfly
You’re gonna make your fortune by and by
But if you lose, don’t ask no questions why
The only game you know is Do or Die
Ah-ha-ha

Taking all that he can take
Gambling with the odds of fate
Tryin’ ta get over
Woo, Superfly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cmo6MRYf5g

Seven favorites and seven bombs on Sunday. Somebody did alright…

Only competition is Fonner and Will Rogers today. Take advantage of all the foreign (uninformed $$$) passing thru the windows today…

On April 11^th, we were the first to tell you of Tampa’s plan to extend the meeting. Open sources are now confirming our intel.

1^st – Bennett has been so dominant, it’s easy to make him your top choice but, he’s only 12% with No Changes, even while he’s 47 & 80 when on the FBK and the favorite. BothTampa starts were sub-par. Parra has four discrete ITM angles averaging 45%.

Exacta Key Box 2/8,9,10

2^nd – OFF TURF – None of these does anything special in OSTs, but Stewart, who has been really struggling (17% Win P4T vs. 11% Win currently), historically has an IV of 1.31 with OSTs. 72% of Ryan’s wins in L6T have been Shortenup or Stretchout types and he is 46% Win when the favorite on the Stretchout. Sharp recent 4F work gives a hint. Hernandez Jr. is 21-25 ITM with Plain Stretchouts.

Exacta Key Box 1/2,4,7,9 (let’s see who goes)

3^rd – Scott is 28% Win with Plain Dropdowns. Last two were par.

Trifectas All/4/2,6,9 (24 bets)

4^th – OFF TURF – Stidham is now 9-11 ITM with OSTs. Connections put up $30K for this maiden claimer. They must have high hopes. Thomas is 4-4 ITM with three wins (all odds-on) this week. He’s 25% Win with TtoDs and 20% Win with Non-shipping 2L1-3s.

Exacta Key Box 9/2,3,4,5.6 (let’s see who goes)

5^th – The Phipps Stable has an AEPS of $17.5K, better than the very best of Tampa’s elite. Above par debut was followed by a start highlighted by act up in the gate. Gotta give another chance. Mr. Bennett is 23% Win with the 2OC + No Change. Legacy Azteca’s (6) numbers have been par all winter. Padilla runner has desirable 3+3 and appears likely to get a piece on the class drop after six over par finish in last (disregard BL).

Pick 4 – 2,6,7/1,3,4,10/5,6,7/8 (36 bets)

6^th – Granitz runner Antalya (7) went 107-95 on the last day before the PR was moved, a big effort (today’s par is 95-95). In last and 3^rd start back this mare made par final fractions. I’ve got nothing good to say about any of the others. Nagle is 2-28 with L4-8s. Guciardo is 4-98 with 2Ss. KOC/Gallardo are 9-54 Win at the meeting. Toss.

Saver Pick 3 – 7/5,6,7/8 (3 bets) If alive after Leg 1 of Pick 4

7^th – See Rs 5 & 6

8^th – Summer Assault (8) went +15 in debut and was above par for T/E in next two. Sea Lover (3) went 96-92 in debut, while Mary Bennett’s piece went 85 and Dini’s went 84-90.

Best Bet – Win 8 and Exacta 8/3

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 04/22/2020

After two days to calm down, I have …. almost feel as if an apology

is in order after Sunday’s results ….that’s how this game goes

sometimes, and I’ve seen worse ….is there solace in thinking or

saying that “at least you hit it” makes it sit well ?? …..HELL NO

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 5, 9 WT 2, 3, 9 WT 4, 6, 9, 11 WT 8 **

                         … $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 4, 8 ** WT 1, 2, 7, 10 WT 3, 6 WT 3, 8

                         … $.50 … $16.00

Best Bet **

*****

April 15th, 2020

1^st – Ryan is 23% Win with Shortenups while the 2^nd ML choice comes from 2-100 with Non-layoff Dirt Sprints trainer. Derek is 50% ITM with the Dropdown + Shortenup angle and 72% of Ryan’s winners (53-74) have been Shortenup or Stretchout types in L6T. The latter has good luck with FBKs and is 24% ITM with his multiple angle. It’s a sad day when the linemaker makes you 2^nd choice because you only got trounced once…

Trifectas All/3/1,5,8 (18 bets)

2^nd –Stidham’s piece went 16 better than par in debut, behind Summer Assault, 3^rd in Columbia Stakes last month. Nobodyknowsnothin (6), at least not about this race, but if Woodard’s piece is a dud, why leave it in open company? He pops with PTBs.

DDs 8/4,5,8 and Exacta 8/6

3^rd – The 4 ,5 & 8 are the only runners with trainers with winning angles (26%, 21% and 23% respectively).

DDs 4,5,8/5

4^th – Delacour is in isolation since 3/28 (he’s no fool), but Bible Tony babysits. Delacour is 11-14 Win with today’s three characteristic angle (and that’s about as good as it gets).

Win 5 (Best Bet)

DD 5/8

5^th – Bennett’s losing streak sits at 10. His record is 14. He is sub-par with these angles, but Federale (8) was 4 better than par in last and Santos can’t afford to play the stiffing game. I don’t like it, but it’s a good time for a DB Martingale to commence. Hamm has turned up the volume with 5 winners and a 30% increase in production the past month.

Saver Trifectas1,5,6,7/8/1,5,6,7 (12 bets)

6^th – Rachiely’s Dream (2) was up close at the 2^nd Call in 5 of 8 starts (including a No Contest last season)  and we got a $14.50 return for show at GP in the fall, so this filly owes us nothing. Rosalda (4) may have been ten back at the 2^nd Call in last, but she made 4 better than par EP. Again, Santos will play it straight. Sudden Light (5) has won at today’s distance and that’s something.

If they are off the turf and the 1 is the favorite, you have a good bet.

Trifectas All/4,5/2 (14 bets)

7^th – Fog Warning (4) was closest to par in last and likes related distances. Dobber is 55% ITM with his angle. Rodriguez is 60% Win if the favorite in this circumstance (with the 8), but he’s only 9% Win with RtSs. Darien doesn’t do UCEs, but the 9 isn’t too shabby on angles either.

Exacta Box 4,8,9

8^th – Strong Gem (1) was close to par in last two. Dini has 50% ITM angle. Two back, Strict Vow (3) was outgunned on speed favoring first day after rail adjustment but improved position late with a +5,-4 and a par Final Fraction. Westlye’s disappointing FG sojourn on the dropdown leaves us guessing. Carvajal Jr. RB seems unlikely (1-18 Win).

Exacta Box 1,2,3 and Saver Trifectas 1,2,3/5,7,8/1,2,3 (18 bets)

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 04/15/2020

So nice getting the extension without actually having to file for

it …. breathing room …. nothing like it ….anyway, I’ve gone

ahead and sharpened the darts, so we’re hoping that they land

where intended …. Interesting, that unlike Fonner, Tampa has

foregone with making one of their Pick 5’s a “jackpot” 5 … no

kidding, check out the handle on it ….Peter ???

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 6, 8 WT 1, 4, 8 WT 3, 5 WT 8 ** … $.50 … $9.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 7, 8 WT 4, 6, 9 WT 4, 8, 9 WT 2,5… $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

JB Note: You’d think Kevin would want to file early with all those tickets on the floor to claim as losses….jk

******

April 8th

We enter week three of the Upside Down, where deceit and conspiracy are the M.O. du jour. (For an explanation of the Upside Down, Google Stranger Things.

In the Upside Down, or anywhere else, Structure is what we are after. Work is almost all Structure. When you get the Structure, you can do the work.  Things fall into place. You can complete. No Structure, no completion. As always, you can cherry pick the races to lay in on, but you shouldn’t change your basic handicapping strategy from race to race. Things are FUBAR presently and your choices should reflect this reality.

1^st – What a Hoot (2) has a 74% ITM angle (Plain TtoD + Dropdown) for Granitz. Gallardo often robs us, maybe not in the Upside Down. However, competing angles do not make good bedfellows. Dobber has the worse record among these conditioners. Let’s put him on top.

Exacta Key Box 7/2,8

2^nd – Correas IV is 5-5 ITM with 3TT + Dropdown move. Rodriguez is 64% ITM with Plain Distance Changes and 58% ITM with DtoTs.  Dominguez has not been favored once at the meeting. The upside Down appreciates novelty.

Trifectas All/1,2,6/1,2,6 (48 bets)

3^rd – Arboritanza has an IV of 1.64 in the final weeks of the meeting (the mode we have been operating in for the last few weeks) including a $59-1 bomb last week and he remains on our list of Top Ten Value Trainers. Cheap 3YOs are always a dangerous proposition.

Trifectas All/5,8,9/1 (21 bets)

4^th – Wales and Ferrer have had most of Sweezey’s winners this season, but the latter has moved on (as in Stays the Fuck at Home). The FBK and Stretchout both work for J. Kent.

Trifectas All/9/4,7 (18 bets)

5^th – This one looks ripe for a $10K tri. Be happy with just a piece or throw some darts.

DDs All/5

6^th – Monkey Mind (5) offers the best value. Chases big EPs routinely but won’t see one today leaving something in the tank.  Nations, still making up for lost time, was ITM in 6 of last 8. The lemmings follow Mr. Bennett into the headlong rush to destruction.

Saver Exactas 4,8/5

6^th – Mary Ann Bennett is 15 for 28 ITM with Non-Layoff Dirt Sprints and the sun is setting on this meeting. I’m expecting a big wakeup from Big Gillette (7) in 2^nd off the Long Layoff with Camacho up.

Cibelli, always a threat, presents with none of her winning angles.

DDs 7/2,3,7 and Trifectas 7/All/4,6

8^th – Harty machine keeps rolling along with 8 of last 12 ITM and 31 of 40 ITM when the favorite. Toss. Clement looks right: FTS + FTT 39 (10-6-6) making it wrong. Toss. Hard to say if Gallardo will bite the hand that feeds him here, but Heavenly Peace (2) presents a great hunch bet, as that’s exactly what we wish for our departed brothers and sisters who have succumbed after the horrible battle with the virus.

Saver Trifectas 8,9/2,3,7/2,3,7,8,9 (18 bets) if worthwhile

*****

Wednesday, April 1^st

Handles are off by 50% in the past six weeks…the exodus will surely begin earlier than usual. Where they will go, nobody knows. A shortage of intel would tend to skew today’s selections towards the known and away from the unknown, but that could be a mistake. We also note that claims are down by 50%, so some dropdowns might do better than usual.

1^st. When you made +2 better than par in last versus this crowd, you deserve to be the favorite, win or lose.

$0.50 Trifectas 7/All/2,4,10 (27 bets)($13.50)

2^nd – The gospel rocker from Ocala, Mr. Johnny Collins (see #5), has never had two winners in a row (that’s since 2002). Not here in Tampa.  Not anywhere! Just sayin…

Galvan is having a solid meeting and he tries the No Change for the first time at the meeting today (21% Win and 43% ITM).

Old Fort (5) is on the FBK after 2^nd best effort. If he’s the favorite (and I think he will be), Correas IV is 55% Win and 88% ITM under today’s circumstances.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/1,7

3^rd – Sweezey/Wales have 5 bombs in ten starts. He is a bit soft with Shippers (12% Win) but improved with Stretchouts this season up to 24% Win from 11% last year. KOC’s singles are OK and signs of early speed have my attention on Bumpa (5). Dini is 50% ITM with FTSs here.

$0.50 Trifectas 3,5,7/1,6,8,9,10/3,5,7 (30 bets)($15)

4^th – I can’t make a case for any of these but the AE 12. Marmalade (12) went +8,-2 in last and Rodriguez is close to par with this type.

Win 12 if in otherwise

Exacta Key Box 11/4 otherwise

Exacta Key Box 4/1,2,3,8

5^th – In an event that appears likely to go below par, Caruso’s piece looks OK. Nick has a couple of par singles today. Guciardo is 62% ITM with the L1-3 + 1PTB.

$0.50 Trifectas 8,9,11/4,7,10,12/6 (12 bets)($6)

$0.50 Pick 4 – 8,9,11/3,6/1,7,10,11/4,6 ($24)

6^th – Flores surprised again and again last season and I’m still waiting for a surprise

$1 Saver Trifecta All/3,6/2,3,6,7 (24 bets)($24) if alive after Leg 1

7^th – See R6

8^th – Rail may go to 30 feet today and that should fare well for zippy Alley Oop Johnny (4) who went +8,+3 in last and goes for Rigattieri, 25 & 50 with Plain Dropdowns.

See R6

*****

March 25th, 2020

At my age, it’s refreshing to watch time slow to a crawl after it had been flying by for so many years, but cabin fever beats the other kind. Let’s try to get it right for the sake of the men and women who are risking their health and safety to put on this show for us four times a week.

1^st – Mr. Bennett has two 22% Win historical single angles, but at this meeting he’s 7 (3-4-0) with the TtoD + Dropdown. Santos is way down on Bennett’s list of “go to” riders, however. They are 1-11 and 5-11 at the meeting. Cpl. Dionicio (7) was 9 below par early and -4 late in big win. Stills looks best, but I can’t get excited about the 3YO. I’ve been saying that the meeting could shut down at any moment and with that in mind, I’ve dusted off the “Final Three Weeks of the Meeting” Report and Hem has an IV or 1.71 if such is the case (and I think it is). Padilla is 3-36 with StRs. Scott is 63% ITM since New Year’s Day but PTB puts me off. Wasiluk is 33% ITM since Jan. 24^th at $16-1.

Exacta Key Box 7/3,4,5

2^nd – Carrasco Jr. is 42% Win and 74% ITM when the favorite in this situation. Ochoa is 79% ITM with UCEs, has an IV or 2.15 in the “final weeks” and Camacho remains hot with 11 of last 15 ITM with 6 wins recently. My Cotton Candy (4) has made a couple of par Quirins, but has no angle to speak of. Gerard’s other piece, Cultural Mandate (8) was +8 for T/E in last. I bang the drum for Concerto’s Appeal (6), an occasional bomber off the long layoff for Durr.

Exacta Key Box 1/3,8 and Saver Trifectas 1/2,6/3,8

3^rd – I’ve been stuck on the Pick 6 for a week or so now and was eliminated in Leg 1 on Sunday. The Secretary starts us off with another tough one to kick it off today.

Mr. Bennett is 56% Win with the 2TS + Dropdown. Granitz, our reigning Value Leader with average ITM odds of $6.40-1, also has an IV of 1.9 in the final weeks. Stack Shack (7) was only two below par after bobbled break in debut. Proctor is par with FTSs. Bowersock has an IV of 1.25 with No Changes if you dare. If a woman could carry a baby for 11 months, the child’s name would be Stewart. At the last three meetings, Chad has had 9 or 10 winners before it was over. This year he popped once (last Wednesday). Nevertheless, he remains 8-33 Win with FTSs over the years. Bahama Pearl (4) was 9 better than par for T/E in last and Carvajal Jr has been ITM in 9 of last 23 at $10-1. There have been three winners and two ITM out of Bahama Pearl’s last (including Gogo Shoes – see #6)

$75 Conditional Win and Place 4 for 3-1

$0.20 Pick 6 – 4/1,3,5,6,7/1,2,3,4,5,6,8/2/1,4,7,11/3 ($28)

$0.20 Pick 6 – 4/1,3,5,6,7/4,6/2/1,4,7,11/1,3,4,10 ($32)

4^th – Here in Oldsmar, $16K Claimers on the Turf (and often SALW16 as well) are the generic conditions for anything other than N3L or N2Ys. It is here that “class within a class” considerations are probably the greatest among all Tampa race conditions and also, probably the hardest to distinguish. It’s also a fact that 25K Claimers are superior to OC32/N2Xs. That gives The Curt Fox (6) with Camacho in the irons, a leg up on these, but disappointing final fractions and sub-par Quirins won’t let me bite. Quality Step (7) is moving through his conditions, giving him a bit of an upgrade, and Nations has 35% Win and 39% Win multiple angles here. Rodriguez is 37% Win and 56% ITM with L4-8s and Astute Warrior (5) made the best final fractions in the field in last two.

Saver Pick 5 if alive after Leg 1 of Pick 6

$0.50 Pick 5 – 5,7/4,6/2/All/3 ($22)

5^th – A couple of solid bet against help the cause here. Rigattieri is 3-62 with the L1-3 + UC and Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.85 with the L1-3 + 1OC (see #8).

Mr. Bennett’s other piece has 66% ITM and 49% ITM angles but no win angles, despite Gerry’s reliability with UCEs. Padilla is 50 and 75 with 1OC + Stretchout types and tries the angle for the first time at the meeting. My Boy Lenny (6) was 7 better than par last, but Darien and Gallardo have only been singing in harmony when the favorite.

Saver Pick 4 if alive in P5 (it’s covered in the Pick 6)

$0.50 Saver Pick 4 – 4,6/2,6/1,4,7,11/1,3,4,10 ($32)

6^th – North Dakota (2) has the fewest Covid-19 cases in the lower 48 and McGaughey is 16 (6-4-1) here with Non-layoffs on the Turf. His piece also made +7 and +6 final fractions in last two. If you’ll excuse the pun, North Dakota (2) will go viral.

Delacour is not going to be the favorite, leaving him with a 0.59 IV.

Uske has only 2 starts in 2020 and last win was 52 starts ago.

Clement likes to win when not the favorite and this Firestone FTS has a better than 25% chance of winning.

Conditional $100 Win 2 for 6-5

$25 Exacta 2/6

$50 DD 2/3

8^th – A Cazares shut out is not likely. She’s better than that. Miss Wrote (2) went +9 early before running out of gas and shortens up today.

Saver Trifectas 1,4,6,10/3/1,4,6,10 (12 bets) to cover

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 03/25/2020

Centeno / Delacour combo almost never fails on the lawn here, except

when Mr. Pick 4 singles them ….. and especially when he makes them

a single ….. and his best bet …. getting beat by Castanon makes it

even more disheartening  …. and I don’t think we’ll see Chuckie as

your post time favorite again this meet ….now, as Leo Guerrero sez,

Let’s Win Today, my racing brothers ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 3 WT 2, 7 WT 4, 5, 7 WT 4, 6… $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 4, 6 WT 1, 2, 6 WT 1, 4, 7 WT 1, 3 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet (closest thing would be the 6, R 5, but the pilot does

            not get my support on fav best bets)

 

****

March 18, 2020

1^st – Carrasco Jr. is 0-22 with L4-8s and Guciardo is 4-61 with same. Rini is 0-55 with Non-layoff dirt sprints.

$0.50 Trifecta Box 2,4,5,7 ($12)

$0.50 Saver Pick 3 – 2,4,5,7/5/1 ($2.00)

3^rd – Drake is 1-37 with his angle. They Call Me Lucky (4) can’t seem to get out of the gate.

$20 Win 1

$0.50 Saver Pick 3 – 3,7/4,5,6,7/1,4 ($8.00)

4^th – Bronx Rumble (4) went fast early (+5) and slow late (-10). I’m not impressed. Dini is good for a piece 43% of the time with his angle.

$0.50 Trifectas 6,7/4,5,6,7/1,4,5,6 (16 bets)($8.00)

$1.00 Pick 3 – 4,5,6,7/1,4/1,4 ($16.00)

5^th – Princess Livia (1) has been a model citizen and Mr. Bennett is par with long layoffs. Hot jockey, solid Quirins and Value Trainer with 7 of 9 ITM with UCEs (none both) is a recipe for success.

$7 Exacta Box 1,4

$0.50 Saver Pick 3 – 1,4/8/2,5,7 ($3.00) if alive

7^th – Claim from Bennett has been without the secret sauce (strong action) so I won’t support today. Manning is 12-22 Win with Long Layoffs on the Dropdown. The 7 was par in last and Silva has a 57% ITM angle.

$2 DDs 2,5,7/6 ($6)

8^th – Very Replaceable (6) shortens up after +6,+4 effort with a + 2.5 Final Fraction. Looks very tough to beat today.

$25 Win 6

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 03/18/2020

We have our escape from the craziness, whereas others aren’t so

lucky …… I’d like to think that none of us are participating in

the hoarding, and following the guidelines laid forth for us …. I

for one, need no persuading, as my frail lungs need none of what

the world is offering right now …stay safe and healthy, my

friends, and our pastime will return to us before you know it.

…..now, let’s cry over spilled milk ….Sunday’s plays were the

victims of two spoilers that amounted to a half-length ….

combined !! …2 plays lost by a nose and a neck, but as the

saying goes …neck or mile. what the hell is the difference??!!

….we’ll keep knocking at the door until they let us in !!

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 5, 6 WT 1, 3, 7 WT 4, 5, 7 WT 1, 4… $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1, 2, 4, 7 WT 4, 8 WT 2, 3, 5, 7 WT 5 ** … $.50 … $16.00

*****

Wednesday, March 11^th

We should give thanks, that a poverty of knowledge, occasionally, so narrows our vision of things as to allow the possibility of feeling something about them. How could we find a pretext to react to anything if we understood…everything? None but an absent mind was ever victimized by the adventure of intense emotional feeling. (from A Soft Voice Whispers Nothing by Thomas Ligotti)

1^st – Pick 3 – 1,2,3/4/All (24 bets)

2^nd – Meilleur = Better

After two making two bombs in sprints, Escobar set the table for a bomb at 8.18F and executed with a 103-97 in a par 98-98. Flashed even more speed in next try (a 107 early). Switches to Chuckie Lopez and returns to a sprint to keep the party going.

See R1

3rd – See R1

4^th – Erin Go Braugh = Ireland Forever

Hernandez lost the contest of nerves when five across the track near the far turn he retreated when in tight, losing all chance, then got going and showed something again, before tossing in the towel in last. Gets rewarded with a “Póg mo thóin” (kiss my ass) by Arboritanza who switches to Mawing today. Joe is 44-95 ITM with Plain Stretchouts.

Bolter (6) was par in last, but Raymond has already executed the bomb. Could be trying again but just as likely to be setting up his next coup.

Win 8 Saver Exacta 6/8

An uncomplicated but daring multi-race tiered wager emerges from my imagination of what’s possible when I take an emotional adventure of my own (for a change).

Minimum possible action today is $183.20/ Maximum is about $600

$0.20 Saver Pick 6 – 6,8/1,3/4,5,7,10/2,3,8/1,4/2,4,5 ($43.20)

5^th – You can count on one hand the number of races at the meeting that rivalled Tapit Today’s win on Dec. 28^th. The also rans out of that race have been in the money in four of six since then. Today, that race is represented by the 1, 3 & 5. Rosebud’s Hope (see #4) was out of the aforementioned race and put the whoop ass on Barrel of Destiny (4) in next start. I can’t find an excuse (beyond treachery) for Distinctive Flower (6) who went par two back, then followed with a -19, -11 while controlling the pace in last.

$0.50 Saver Pick 5 – 5,6/4,5,7,10/2,3,8/1,4/6 ($24.00) if alive after Leg 1 of Pick 6

6^th – Ward historically is solid with these angles but hasn’t done anything with them at the current meeting. I’ve already kicked myself in the ass for not keeping the faith with Dennis a couple of times this year (KP Creed and Done Acting both had solid angles coming off poor finishes and won without my backing).

Exacta Key Box 10/4,5,7

7^th – Two out of the 2 & 3’s last have won since. Faction Cat won the Turf Dash and My Boy Lenny won an N2X. Connelly is always a threat at 33% ITM in all starts here at $9-1 average odds in L11T. She has favored Morales in L4T but he sticks on the 8 for Delgado. Is there something to read between the lines here or does Connelly just return to Gallardo for practical reasons. After 24% Win on the RB in L9T, Ward is just 1-15 in L2T with the angle.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 3/2,8 and $10 Saver Trifectas 2,8/2,5,8/3 ($40)

$7 Saver Pick 3s – 2,3,8/3,5/1,7 ($84) if still alive in the P6 or the P5

8^th – The last time Roberson won two consecutive races was on July 8^th, 2013 (122 races ago).

Town Classic was well above par over the weekend in a SALW16 and Mungojerrie raced in an N1X for $42K at Lrl and was 3^rd by a neck at 3/2 recently, upgrading Mr. Bennett’s Mighty Ghost (1). Jerry has two 65% ITM angles here but none for Win.

$200 Weighted DDs 1,4/1,7 if alive after Leg 1 of Pick 3 (if it’s played)

9^th – Ryan is 4-7 Win and 6-7 ITM with UCEs (with both ITM in 4 of 7). He’s 50% Win when the favorite and Plain Shortenup (in 22 tries) (see both 1 and 7). Hernandez Jr. looks to get off the schneid with 26% Win and 31% Win angles.

Saver Exactas if alive to follow in a tweet depending on the Will Pays

*******

Wednesday, March 4^th

1^st – Charging Renee (1) went 97-100 in last and today’s par is 94-94. Five of eight claimed from Thomas have won with no duds. O’connor is 10 & 44 OC.

Roberson bombs with this type. Returns to the dirt on the big dropdown after four failed attempts on the lawn. Jan 5^th OST over drying surface is tossed.

Premium Motion (4) changed hands thereby making Carrasco Jr. the trainer whose stats we are interested in. Victor is now 0-21 with L4-8s, but also is 41 & 71 with PTBs when the favorite. Choose your poison.

KOC/Gallardo are only 7-39 at the meeting (18%) and only 20% when the favorite. Kathy has two >50% ITM angles here that involve L4-8 status.

Trifectas 1,4,5/1,3/1,4,5

2^nd – Jorge Delgado is 29% Win with Non-layoff Dirt Routes at GP and was close to par in last.

In my book, I talk about how it’s important not to blindly back every solid Multiple Angle as there are meetings when a trainer just doesn’t have the tools (horses) to execute. Feliciano was 18% Win and 54% ITM at the last three meetings but hasn’t had a winner since before Christmas. Ten years ago, I might have kept laying it in based on the historical data. Not anymore. These days, one must have the historical data AND be performing presently before the rubber band comes off the bankroll. (Stewart is also on our hit list presently).

Diablo’s Darling’s (4) only win on the dirt was at 8.32F.

Trifectas 2/1,4/1,3,4,7 (6 bets)

DDs 2/1,5,7

3^rd – KOC is 58% ITM with FBK + TtoD types and Quirins are competitive.

Ochoa is now 0-19 with 2TSs.

Rodriguez has big numbers all around but Jost Dreamy (6) remains with David. Darien is 16% Win and 52% ITM with PTBs, but this is really pushing the envelope.

DDs 1,5,7/10

4^th – Yanez tends to excel at the Stretchout versus the Shortenup but has solid Quirins and remains a threat.

Hemingway looks for only 2^nd Turf bomb of the meeting here (he averages about 6 at every meeting), however, one might argue that the crowd just has his number now. Still, I think the rush it gives him compels him to try. Ian has both of his big turf bomb angles working here.

Sienkewicz is 5-83 Win with Dropdowns.

Terranova is 7 (2-4-0) with Non-layoff Rightbacks, but Corcoran (7) is not even close to par.

Mr. Maurice (10) comes back fast and on the Shortenup after weakening in the final furlong last time out. That race went +18, +7, leaving Mr. Maurice with a 109-94. Today’s par is 93-93. I am always reluctant to lay it in on trainers that I don’t have to profile for.

Conditional $10 ATB 10 for 9/2 ($30)

$20 DD 10/3

$1 Trifectas 10/4,5,8,9/4,5,8,9 (12 bets)($12)

5^th – Arriagada hasn’t missed the board here with the 1OC + Shortenup (6-6 ITM with 4 Wins) and is 35% & 76% ITM if the favorite in this situation.

See R4

Saver Trifectas 2,6,7/3/All (15 bets) to cover if alive in the DD

6^th – Again, Hemingway has an opportunity to bomb (and this one will be lucky if it goes to the post as such (meaning $9-1 or >). Ian is 68% ITM with Plain Shortenups and benefits from the class gap on the Shortenup after – 1 ½ FF in last. PP1 is now 1-38 recently (ouch)!

Embattled (8) is also out of the same race as Mr. Maurice (See R4) and should also benefit from the shortenup for McKanas who was a top bomb maker with PTBs in 17-18.

$25 Place and Show 1

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/5,7,8

$25 Weighted DDs 1,5,8/3

7^th – Guciardo is 1-42 with 2L1-3s. Palacios-Molina is 2-36 with Long Layoffs.

Exactas 3/1,5,10

8^th – If Ryan gets action here, watch out. He’s 3-7 Win and 5-7 ITM with Plain Stretchouts at the meeting and crushes it when favored in this spot. Should outperform even as the 3^rd choice.

Mr. Bennett is 4-13 this year with 2S + No Class Change types, but is only 18-131 for the past 10 years with the same angle. A spate of good fortune does not undue a decade of underachievement.

Exacta Key Box 5/3,10

DDs 3,5,10/7

9^th – See R8

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 03/04/2020

Bad luck continues to plague us, as the big day approaches, and

frustration is knocking at the door, BUT, we will not surrender

our ground or change tactics now, as the bastardos owe us !!

BTW, a quick check of other sites shows the same evidence of

frustration from fellow prognosticators ….it’s a big boat my

friends …..feeling good about today …. we shall see ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4 WT 1, 5 WT 4, 8, 9, 10 WT 1, 4… $.50 … $16.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 4, 5, 7 WT 3 ** WT 2, 5, 7, 10 WT 4, 7, 10 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

******

Wed., February 26^th

This card looks more like late April than late February. That’s what incompetence and mismanagement gets you…

1^st – R(obert) D(rake) Have Faith could pop after par performance in last. This hobbyist has been known to bomb now and again (5-135 since 2003). Bennett has not tried this move in the last 5 years. Could be a bad sign or a good sign.

Exacta Key Box 3/2,5

2^nd – Mrs. Bennett and KOC have > 50% ITM angles, after that, a par effort from Action Warrior (6) in last rounds things out.

DDs 5,6,7/1,8

3^rd – DDs 1,8/6,8

4^th – Gallardo has more wins on an OFF TRACK than the whole colony for the past 5 years and the rain should be coming down good, right about now. Credit Cycle (8) went 99-92 (against the bias) at today’s distance on an off track in December (today’s par is 95-94). Gets another chance.

See R3

5^th – Scott’s piece went +3,+7 on off track two back, but she is now 4-28 win with Plain Dropdowns in L5T. Twocubanbrothersu (3), a three time Above Par Dueler, goes for Rigattieri, 100% ITM in 11 tries in this situation. Guciardo is 8 for 9 ITM with her angle in L2T (after being 0-18 in P3T). Gallardo is up.

Exacta Key Box 3/2,6 and Saver Trifectas 2,3,6/1,5,7/2,3,6 (18 bets)

6^th – Elusive Ryder (5) made today’s par in last two. KOC is 22% Win and 56% ITM with No Change types.

$0.50 Pick 4 – 5,8/4,5,8,10,11,12/1,3,4,6,8/9 (up to 60 bets) ($30)

add the 7 in leg 3 if 11 or 12 scratches in leg 2

8^th – Big Money Machine (7) has five, discrete, > 50% ITM angles for Hinsley and the PTB Crichton is 50% ITM on the dirt at GP.

Conditional $10 Win and $40 Show for $6-1

$1 Trifectas 1,3,4,6,8/7/1,3,4,6,8 (20 bets)($20)(regardless of odds)

9^th – Pins and Needles (9) gives me needles and pins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGWR3uI3Qa0

This lady by top sire Giant’s Causeway (RIP 2018) (15% Winners here) gets Gallardo in the soup after +5 Tampa debut on the lawn. Should mop these up….if Gallardo’s side business isn’t operating in this one.

Win 9

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 02/26/2020

With the way it’s been going, you will not hear me bitch about the paltry hit on Sunday …every casher is a decent one …for those who were adventurous, throw in a few yacktas and tris PLUS if you were reeally daring, there was a $100 P 5  & P 6 ….only Konza Khrome cost us the perfect day ….. are we on track ?? ….we shall soon find out ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 6 WT 4, 7 WT 3, 9 WT 3, 4, 5,6 … $.50 … $16.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5 ** WT 4, 9, 10 WT 1, 5, 6 WT 1, 6, 9… $.50 … $13.50

Best Bet **

********

Wednesday, Feb 19^th

1^st – Pick 3 – 2,3,6/3,4,6/4,7 (18 bets)

2^nd – Trifectas 3,4,6/3,4,5,6/3,4,5,6 (18 bets)

$0.50 Pick 4 – 3,4,6/2,4,5,7/3/1,4,6 ($18)

3^rd – On A Spree (4) went +9,+8 in last and seems destined for favoritism today (75% ITM). Juan is 73% ITM with runners that his brother-in-law has a piece of. FF was -2 over a -5 Variant.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,5,7

4^th – With trepidation, it’s Lady Breanna (3). She was par in 7F win last year here. Camacho sticks. The team is 29% Win and 69% ITM. Herd dynamics are at work on Tomlinson’s piece. She defers to her older sisters. Negrete hasn’t had a winner since Christmas. Carvajal Jr. has no record of success with No Changes and Dini is 2-38 off the claim. I really don’t want to go there, but….

Saver Exactas 2,5,7/3 to cover if alive in the Pick 4

5^th – Dale Bennett’s runners are price sensitive. He’s 44% Win in 221 tries at $2.60-1 or <. However, the lawn has never been his forte. Dale is only 17% Win with these. Parra is 2-75 with 2Ss.

Exacta Key Box 4/1,6,8 if Bennett is not the favorite

6^th – Stewart should have five Wins and five Places at this point. He’s stone cold. I haven’t called it a BIAS, but Commander of Death (2) won wire to wire during a brief period when front runners won 22 of 40. Since then, speed has won 13 of 48.  Dini is only 8-118 with Shippers and 3-29 with 2TSs. Parra is 6 of 73 Win with Dropdowns.

ATB 3

7^th – Pick 3 – 3,5,7/3,4,6/4,6,7 (27 bets)

8^th – I often don’t watch the races (unless I have a bet to make), so when a No Contest was declared on Feb. 2nd, I was looking for some answers/opportunities. Wouldn’t you know it, The Stifler (5) who often doesn’t quit when sent, was on a clear lead throughout and with a +7 EP before the alarm was sounded. My trip notes said to look for a FBK and here we are 17 days later (3 days over) but with the first race with this condition since. There was an $8K claimer at 6F, but Rigattieri claimed him for $10K and they are a proud bunch, these horse trainers. I’m no Evangelical, but Pride (does) goeth before the fall (Proverbs 16:18). John has 63% and 71% ITM angles here. Did Morales jump or was he bumped? A big, important question with no answer. Rigattieri hasn’t gone to Gallardo very often and wins with Pablo up.

Sudden 4-5 ITM wakeup from Nations was overdue, but it’s here now.

$5 Trifectas 3,4,6/1,2,3,4,6/5 (12 bets)($60)

$3 Trifectas 3,4,6/5/1,2,3,4,6 (12 bets)($36)

9^th – Alencar gave a shitty ride to G Friday (6) two weeks ago and I was excited about the 5YOs prospects with a different pilot up. I can’t seem to get the fence post out of my ass here.

See R7

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 02/19/2020

Not much can be said about the Sunday card … the best bet couldn’t even bail us out, never mind complete the late play …a couple of nice tris helped, but that’s not what we’re here for …. we’re not spending tons, but, we really need to hit one ….close does not count here ….really, really trying …………..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 4, 6 WT 4, 5, 7 WT 2, 3, 7 WT 1, 4 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 7, 9 WT 3, 7 WT 2, 7 WT 1, 4 … $.50 … $12.00

Good Luck !! … No Best Bet !!

******

Wed., Feb 12^th

1^st – RD Allen Jr. will have to show us something special after 0-21 run and short absence recently before we will back. With an AEPS of $6183, Modica would have to be called an “elite” conditioner. He’s 47% ITM with Dirt Sprints here and My Girl Sweet (5) went 101-89 in last. Today’s par is 86-88.

Weighted DDs 5/2,3,5,6

2^nd – How can Lichoa be 5-2 when he is 0-56 with PTBs and 3% with Dropdowns and StRs? Nominal Dollars (4) won with a 76 EP in last and won’t put up the needed 97 today. Allen is tossed again.

See R1

3^rd – Stidham is 44% Win with the 2TS + 2TT. Delacour is almost 50% ITM with FTS + FTTs. Carrasco Jr. is 56% Win with the 1OC + UC and 15-18 ITM and 28% Win and 9-18 ITM with the L1-3 + Longer. Has popped with FTTs. Hemingway has 69% and 56% ITM angles here.

$7 Exacta Key Box 8/2,7,10 ($42) and $3 Saver Tris 2/7,8,10/7,8,10 (6 bets) ($18)

4^th – Manning’s piece went 107-87 at 8.18F at the Summer Festival, then was par in 6F (94-95) win while eased through the final 1/16^th. Manning doesn’t win with StRs, but ya never know. Avila is 6-6 ITM here with Dirt Routes.

$15 Exacta Box 6,8

$25 DDs 6,8/1,6

5^th – My Éclair (6) went +18 in debut and Stidham is 43% Win and 70% ITM with StRs. Castanon cheats but none of them want to burn their bridges with big dogs (unless perhaps they are just dropping in for the day).  Seems like Gallardo won’t stiff Chad Brown either.

Saver Trifectas 3,4,10/1,6/1,3,4,6,10 (18 bets) to cover if alive in the DD

6^th – Delgado surrogates for Servis who has multiple 50% Win multiple angles here. Delgado has not missed the board with a UCE at the meeting (4-4). Looks like we get an honest jockey race for a change…

Exacta Key Box 6/5,8

$0.50 Saver Pick 4- 5,6,8/1,5,10/1,9/3,7,8 (54 bets)($27)

7^th – Taco (5) was above par in first off the claim. Sweezey is 25% Win and 75% ITM with S + Dropdown types. He does nothing with PTBs but this one has changed hands.

Trifectas 1,5,10/2,9/1,5,10

8^th – $7 Trifectas 11/1,9/1,3,4,9,10 (8 bets)($56) if alive in the Pick 4 only

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 02/12/2020

Sooo …a Dini horse can’t finish …again …costing us the early play on Sunday …saving grace was Chuck C. Lopez banging home a $9.80 – 1 shot, paying handsomely for yacktas & tris …the forewarning was out there ….I’m not sure, but every time JB

makes a pick 4 play. am I supposed to take it as a challenge?, or is he just trying to prime the pump, and passing along luck ?

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 6 WT 6, 7, 8 WT 2, 6, 7 WT 4, 6… $.50 … $18.00

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 6 WT 6 WT 6 WT 6 … $5.00 … $5.00

                        (double midnight special)

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5, 6, 8 WT 2, 4, 7, 10 WT 11 ** WT 5, 6, 8 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

****

Wednesday, Feb. 5^th

Bowersock is now 0-18 since Jan. 12^th. Looks like the troubles have returned for RJ Allen Jr. We wish him well, but they took our $$$ for weeks without a chance of winning. Six to one odds on Divine Ambition off of a win gave me that “V8” moment (again).

1^st – KOC is 43% Win in 118 tries when the favorite without Gallardo (his name should be Serpiente) in the irons. Kathy also > 50% ITM with Dropdowns and Shortenups. She goes to WA Garcia for only the 2^nd time at the meeting here.

Davis has a couple of 2L + 2S bombs. Hendry looks for her first lightly raced maiden bomb of the meeting. She has had eight in the recent past.

Exacta Key 2/4,5,7 if 2 is the favorite, otherwise

Pick 3 – 2,4,5,7/1-6/3

2^nd – Bump at break didn’t cost Lil’s Turn (5) and I won’t give the odds-on favorite another chance despite Mr. Bennett’s 48% Win angle (FBK if the favorite). Gerry is also only 14% Win with No Changes. The 2 and 5 were beaten by Wasiluk’s 30-1 shot, and the 4 beat it by ½ length. That ain’t saying much. Chavez is now 1-48 with Plain UC types. The ALL button (well, I’ll leave the 7 off) is tempting here…

See R1

3^rd – Stidham is 32 & 63 with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown and 11 of last 13 ITM at $4.50-1. Rodriguez is the natural saver.

Saver Exacta 10/3 if alive in the pick 3, and

Pick 3 – 3/2,5,6/2,3,8

4^th – Bennett presents us with a dilemma. After being 1-25 with the FBK + UC for 10 years, he’s 3-4 win with the angle at the meeting. Has this old dog learned a new trick did Mr. B just surprise himself? He’s 47% Win if the favorite in this situation, but is sub-par on the UC and RtS angles…

Harty has a hot streak going, hitting the board in 7 of last 8. He’s solid for a piece with the singles and has two discrete 38% win angles if the favorite.

Ochoa is 5-22 Win with the Layoff + S + Dropdown and is 67% ITM with his PTB angle too.

See R3

5^th – Terranova has a 5-13 Win and 69% ITM angle (L1-3 + UC) and tries it for the first time here. Crown and Sugar (2) was above par in last, but Rodriguez has sub-par singles here with IVs of 0.48 (RB) and 0.58 (No Change). Purse is not that big and Gallardo is up. Potts is par with No Changes.

Exacta Key Box 3/2,8

6^th – Spieth can’t cover for Bowersock today, but if the switch happens, you might be on to something. Ochoa is now 2-38 with Non-shipping 2L1-3s.

Gogas and Collins make a habit of popping off the layoff on the dirt, but Johnny is 0-16 with 1PTBs.

$50 Win 3 if switch to Spieth and the favorite, otherwise Pass

7^th – Nobody is twisting your arm, but…

Pick 3 – 1,2,3/5,7,8/9

8^th – In this wide-open race. Hot combo of KOC/Hernandez (6-19, 9-19) look right for a piece, but Caruso’s piece figures more prominently.

See R7

9^th – Stidham is 44 & 55 with the 2TS + 2TT angles and Morales sticks despite 56% ITM angle for Ward. Six over par final fraction is satisfactory over the -8 variant that day.

Win 9

 

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 02/05/2020

Gotta give props where they’re deserved …long been a Chuckie Lopez fan (Monmouth days yanno) …his ride in R 5 on Sunday was a winning one …made all the right moves, but the piece came up a length short ….He’ll benefit us before the meet is over …again, the $50 hit would’ve meant more, had we hit the early as well, but we’ll take it … co-Best cost us early….Gallardo a solid toss in a couple 2day ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 4, 5 WT 3, 8, 10 WT 6** WT  2, 3, 5, 8 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 4 WT 1, 3, 8 WT 2, 3, 4 WT 6, 9.. $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

********

Wed., Jan 29^th

If I was to say that 5-day week of racing didn’t stretch my capacity to the limit, I’d be lying. Don’t know I ever did it all those years…

1^st – Mr. Bennett has two distinct win angles of 42% and 40% and he’s 47% Win if the top choice under this scenario.

Arriagada and Wright are crushing it. Juan is 14 of last 20 ITM @ $6.50-1. Michael is 67% ITM @ $7-1 at the meeting.

If 2 is the favorite: Exacta Key 2/5,6 and

If 2 is not the favorite: Trifectas 2,6/2,5,6/2,5,6

2^nd – Rivelli is 30% Win here at odds < $4-1.  Rodriguez is 14-17 ITM since Christmas and is solid with the RB + UC + Stretchout singles and is 75% ITM if the favorite in this spot.

Again, Arriagada is currently hot (see R1 comments)

DDs 1/2,4 and Trifectas 1/5/4,6

3^rd – Wetherington gets a piece after her charge went +9 early at 7F in last.

Again, see Wright comments in R1.

Saver Trifectas All/2,4/2,4 (10 bets)

4^th – Trifectas All/2,5/2,3,4,5 (36 bets)

5^th – Raymond is 57% ITM with UCEs (8-14) and he’s par with his angles. Rivelli is 81% ITM if odds-on. Bowersock is now 62% ITM (8-13) with the 2L + Stretchout. She pops ½ the time with FBKs and “J” is a past APD here on the dirt.

Exacta Box 3,5 and Trifectas 3,5/1,2,4/3,5

6^th – Exacta Key Box 6/3,5,9 and Saver Trifectas 6/8/3,5,9

7^th – DDs 3,4/1,2,3

8th – DDs 1,2,3/6

9^th – I can’t give up on Nations. He’s 35% Win and 65% ITM with Plain Stretchouts.

Saver Exacta 3,5/6 if alive in the DD to cover

Mr.Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 01/29/2020

Moving forward, … I’ll say nothing about Terranova killing us on Sunday, but he did …. if you stay with him, he’ll kill us ….but the mandate sez stay …he’ll pay off for us …. getting too close to retreat now ….another try …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 4 WT 4, 7 WT 2, 3, 5 WT 2, 5, 6, 7.. $.50 .. $24.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5, 8 WT 3, 4, 7 WT 2 ** WT 3, 7, 8, 9.. $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

******

Thursday, Jan. 23^rd

Our selections took a lot of action yesterday and it’s no surprise as we had over 600 hits all told on FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY. It’s a catch-22. One must bait the hook before one gets a bite. So it goes…

1^st – Suarez jumps off the runner with the best Quirins in the field for Hemingway firster. Ian does have five 1^st 3 Mdn bombs. I smell a rat. KOC is 27% Win and 53% ITM with FTS + Dirt + Sprint angle. Lerman is 52% ITM with TtoDs and switches to Ferrer.

$1 Trifectas 1,2,4,5/1,2/1,2,4,5,7 (18 bets)

2^nd – Pick 3 – 2,3,6/2,3,8/5,7,10 (27 bets)

3^rd – Trifectas 1-5,8/1,2,3,4,8/1,2 (48 bets)

4^th – Delacour’s IV is 0.63 without Centeno up and he is aboard the 4. What’s up with that? By the numbers its 5,7,10.

Exacta Box 5,7,10 and Saver Trifectas 5,7,10/4/5,7,10

5^th – Favoritism pushes the buttons in this one. Feliciano is 24% Win with RBs here and is 44 and 81 when favored. Arriagada is 29% Win with his angle and 32% Win if the favorite in this situation. Klopp is 53% Win when the favorite. Dale Bennett had the magic with Singanothersong (4) but will Burns also have it? Ferraro has an IV of 0.49 when the top choice.

Trifectas 3,4,7/3,4,5,7,8/3,4,7 (18 bets)

Pick 3 – 3,4,7/1,5,7/2,3,5,7 (36 bets)

6^th – Padilla has a couple of PTB bombs but they were both from Van Winkle. Mawing was only up once for Padilla and was 9^th at $40-1. Looks wrong.

Trifecta Box 1,5,7/1,5,7,10/1,5,7,10

7^th – Miserably slow final fractions have me off the 9 and 10.

See R5

8^th – My Girl Sweet (11) made a 189 and a 180 for Total Energy in last two and today’s par is 174. Looks to have Sweet Leaf (10) as the main threat, but Rodriguez, while winning a lot with TtoDs, is also 1-18 Win with RtSs. The weakest link theory is at work.

$25 Win 11

$25 DD 11/4

9^th – Jost Sayin (4) has been the picture of consistency, with three, consecutive, above par finishes. Joe A is 3-5 Win and 4-5 ITM with his angle. I can’t argue with that…

Conditional $100 Win 4 for 8/5

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 01/23/2020

$32 beats leaving all $21 to Charlene at the window. One only needs to keep the bar tab a wee bit smaller to make the day appreciable ….. I’ll be totally bald by the end of the meet,if these jocks keep causing me to pull my hair out ….nothing more frustrating than to see a horse reserved, gets rolling into contention, only to have it’s “pilot” run him or her into a blind switch …. wonder if they play Grand Theft Auto with the same tactics and strategy …..good luck

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 7 WT 2, 8 WT 4, 5, 7 WT 3, 7.. $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 4, 5, 7, 10 WT 7 ** WT 3, 7, 10 WT 2, 4, 10 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

******

Wed., Jan. 22^nd

1^st – Last year’s bomb makers are this year’s smart money takers. That’s the nature of information once it’s out there for a while.

Exacta Key Box 4/3,6 and Saver Tris 1,4/2,3,6/1,4

2^nd – You know how Mr. Bennett crushes it with UCEs. He’s even 17% ITM with both of them in 67 tries. Camacho has been his boy, so a slight advantage is given to Savage Music (4), who went +5,+4 in last. Bowersock is 70% ITM off the claim and the couple is 8 (4-1-0) recently.

Exacta Key Box 4/5,6

3^rd – Bennett’s IV with FTTs is 0.37. KOC and Hernandez are 4-10 Win and 6-10 ITM at the meeting. A sorrier lot of 3YOs you shall not see. At first, I thought the turf course was slow by eight all meeting long. Now I’m convinced the course is fine. It’s the animals who are slow by 8 clicks.

Exacta Box 4,6 and Saver Trifecta 4,6/7,8/4,6

4^th – A lightly raced maiden will get to the circle if it can be close to par. It’s all in the draw.

Weighted DD 1/4,5

5^th – Yanez is 0-23 with 2Ss. Weaver is 14-19 ITM on the lawn here in L5T with 6 wins, but none of them were layoffs. Today? Maybe? Casse is 0-20 with DtoTs. That leaves the 3,4,5 & 7. Stidham’s piece has lots of Early Speed and is on the Shortenup (4-8 Win). Delacour has a 35% win angle and also shortens up.

Kevin has the 3 & 7, but I don’t know why. Primela (3) leaves a 3-52 LT Turf trainer for a 1-60 LT Turf trainer, Allen Jr has been flat on the lawn and this is the only runner from the Kintz/Fisher partnership, ever. The Argentine Peso exchange rate is 1-60 vs. US, so those five figure purses from South America (Joy Nidera) do not impress. If this were a meal we were talking about, I’d say: “Buy local, farm to table!”

$25 Weighted Exacta Box 4,5

$50 Weighted DDs 4,5/1,2,7

$3 Saver Pick 3 – 6/1,2,7/4,10 (6 bets)($18)

6^th – Raymond is now 36-61 (59%) with all Plain Starters but Gabriel Suarez has first mount since 2017. Toss. The other half of the UCE is a firster and he does hit the board with these but is 0-20 for the Win. Harty has solid angles all around and Martinez sticks. Hendry’s 2TS was as close to par as the #2 in only start. Looks right to me.

Galvan is 1-33 with L4-8s here creating a solid bet against at 3-1 ML.

7^th – You’re so vain, you probly think this song is about 4 or 10. It’s not. Guciardo is 57% ITM with her four-characteristic angle at $19-1. Kathy still has no bombs at the meeting.

ONLY IF WE CASHED IN RACES 5 or 5 & 6

$2 Trifectas 4,5,7,9,10/4,10/8 (8 bets)($16)

$3 Pick 3 – 4,5,7,9,10/3,5,6/7 (15 bets)($45)

$1 Saver Pick 3 – 4,10/3,5,6/3,9 (12 bets) ($12)

8^th – Sweezey’s only Rightback winner is Simply Great (3), who drops in class after two above par wins. That makes no sense. Gallardo sticks, but the stiff job is limited to KOC runners. Looks like Gia was spooked into vet scratch by Simply Great (3), but I think that’s a mistake. Ward is 75% ITM with UCEs and has two longshots.

See R7

9^th – Sweezey is better with Non-shipping L1-3s than the other variety and is solid with 2TTs and anything at < 6-1 odds. Gets the nod by default.

Win 7

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 01/22/2020

On Sunday, I should’ve just gone to church ….clearly, tossing Gallardo on ML favs worked for awhile, however, to semi-quote Monty Python, on Sunday, he “farted in our general direction” …. I’m sticking to my devices for now ….it’s going to take a few more 5 baggers to talk me off …. cold days, as today is, makes an interesting day for fillies and mares especially,as they love the brisk weather .. whereas intact, older males would rather hang in their stalls and wait for the hot, humid days   …. us humans ?? …..make up your own lies ……

(JB Footnote: Gallardo is only 1-15 when up for KOC since Dec. 13^th with only 1-9 Win when the favorite (totally suspect finishes). This is consistent with last years results as well.)

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 4, 5, 6 WT 4, 6, 7 WT 4 ** WT 3, 7 … $.50 … $9.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 4, 7 WT 4, 5 WT 3, 4, 7 WT 2, 7 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

*****

Wed., Jan. 15^th

1^st – Flashy Patch (4) went 102 early in last and adds 990 feet today (about 20 strides) but Feliciano doesn’t have much success with the StR move (6%W and 29% ITM). Mr. Bennett takes all the excitement out of any exotic with his 52-67 ITM record with UCEs or does he? Camacho is 12-28 Win for GB this year and Centeno is 0-6. What’s up with that? Waz surprises with FBKs and Stretchouts.

DDs 4,5/1

2^nd – Lerman’s patience with this 5YO maiden makes one wonder. Only tag entry came after 18-month layoff. Short field greatly improves chances today. Terranova is 70% ITM with his angle. Stidham is 3-8 win with the 2TS + 2TT, but offspring of The Factor, 20% win here in P2T have not been much of a factor this season (only one winner – Cuestion de Tiempo).

Win 1 and Exacta Key 1/3,5

DD Wheel 1/All

3^rd – I’ll go All in this field of cheapies of whom all but the #1 are trying to win for the first time in open company. Guciardo is 5% Win with L1-3s and is 0-6 off the claim.

DD Wheel All/9

4^th – Mr. B has been making adjustments, trying to find a running style that will work for Cpl. Dionicio (9) and the third time is often the charm for Bennett on the Turf (6-22 Win). KOC has been winning with Harry Hernandez (and not Gallardo). Switch for the first time at the meeting to Mena says “toss” to me. Socciarelli had two Dropdown + DC bombs here in 17-18. Arindel has AEPS of $7682 LT.

Win 9 and Exacta Key 9/4,8,10,(12),(13)

5^th – With the looks of this bunch, give me Roberson’s piece Dating (3) again. Don now has 12 lightly raced bombs this season and last.

Exacta Key Box 3/1,7

6^th – Terranova is 35% Win and 75% ITM with the S + Shortenup angle. Generally speaking, Bowersock tries the first time out more often than the second time out and she is 6-73 Win with 2Ss. The crowd will like this one as nostalgia gets to the best of us, but I don’t. Royally Cool (3) won a conditioned N2L in last. I don’t think so.

Pick 4 – 6/2,4,5/4,5,7,8/2,4,8,9,10 (60 bets)

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 01/15/2020

Well, the leprechaun gods smiled on the early play, Sunday,to the tune of 28 ducats …terrible in itself, but the P 5 only paid $10 more ….small fielditis strikes at Tampa, so

expect more of the same …. to quote a movie line that I find absolutely fitting for the occasion ….”pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” ….especially when he makes

P 4 selections …. we look for larger pay days (just not gonna be 2day) …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 3, 4, 5 WT 2, 3, 4 WT 9, 10 WT 1 …. $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 6, 7 WT 4, 5, 9 WT 5 ** WT 4, 8, 9 … $.50 … $9.00

Best Bet **

*****

Wednesday, Jan 8^th

Subscribers are reminded that only BOLD TYPE plays will be counted on the meeting results page. Also, please follow us on Twitter at @tamselections for last minutes changes/cancellations of wagers.

1^st – Feliciano is 24 & 66 with RBs here and this one really isn’t moving UC, however Resident and Double Deep’s last wins (the others up for a piece) were N3Ls & N4Ls respectively and neither was recent. Native Hawk (4) is out of that Dec. 6^th race that saw C5N2Ys outperform OC32s. Last was 4 over par, but Arriagada is 25 & 63 with Plain FBK + Dropdown move. Doodle Hopper (6) has had three bad breaks here recently. Union Grace (3) was an APD in a Dash last year, but has done nothing since and yet Jones doesn’t drop him in class…

DDs 1,4,6/2,3

2^nd – The restricted types have an IV of 1.27 in these races for the past ten years and Hinsley has an IV of < 0.5 with 2L1-3 + 2Ss, so I’m tossing High Heater (6), who was soundly beaten by #3 in last. Motion’s Bye Bye Melvin (2) went 114-107 in maiden win (the only turf race with a positive variant that day). Today’s par is 91-92. Me and Mr. C (3) went 100-100 in last after dueling with two at different points of call and then resisting to the end.

$25 Exacta Box 2,3 ($50) and $7 Pick 3 – 2,3/2,4,5,7/7 (8 bets)($56)

3^rd – Since 2010, when ITM, Mrs. Bennett beat Mr. Bennett in 9 out of 10 races (the other one Mr. B beat her by a nose by accident). How convenient….

Lorito’s piece went 92-86 in last. Today’s par is 88-90. He bombs with class and distance changes.

Trifectas All/4/1,2,5,7 (20 bets) and/or Trifectas 2-7/2,5,7/4 (18 bets)

4^th – Boyce is 23 & 64 with the 2L1-3 + No Class Change angle. J P’s Gia’s (7) last went above par.

Saver Exacta 2/7 to cover if alive in the Pick 3,

Otherwise, parlay R2 exacta winnings to Win 7,

Otherwise, $25 Weighted DDs 7/3,5,7

5^th – Temple City Star (5) was better than par in first try and 3 of 7 out of that race have won or finished up close (three were shipped south and that is also encouraging). Value trainer RG Potts is now 8-12 ITM at average odds of $6.70-1 at the meeting and he’s almost 50% ITM with his angles here. Ed’s Dog (9) is rabid. He’ll bite you when you least expect it.

Exacta Key Box 5/3,7 and Saver Trifectas 3,5,7/6,8,9/3,5,7 (18 bets)

$0.50 Pick 3 – 3,5,7/2,6,7/2,4,7,9 (36 bets)($18)

7^th – Nations was a value leader for ITM in L3T. Hard to imagine he doesn’t pop soon. He’s better than 50% ITM with three of these singles and Sindarius (4) was above par with a solid final fraction last Spring. Drops to the bottom rung today.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,7,9

8^th – Trifectas 4,6,7/5,10,12/4,6,7 (18 bets)

9^th – KOC/Gallardo are now 0-14 when the favorite since Dec. 13^th. When not the favorite, they are 1 for 9 Win. It’s not a run of bad luck folks.

Trifectas 6,8/1,2,3,9/6,8,9 (14 bets)

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 1/8/2020

The Bowersock/Allen partnership ruined an otherwise great chance at the early play on Sunday.  Shame when the Best Bet cruises and you get blindsided by a George Burns reference ….wonder if Gracie was smiling down on the namesake ….We were actually closer in the late play, but we all know when “close” counts, and it sure ain’t horse racing …..another try awaits …….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 3, 5, 6 WT 1, 4 WT 2, 6, 7 WT 7 **… $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 6, 7, 8  WT 1, 4, 7, 9 WT 4, 6, 7, (11) WT 8 … $.50 … $18.00 ($24.00)

Best Bet **

********

Jan. 1st, 2020

1^st – Sammy’s Mineshaft (4) comes out of a race that saw Wild Wiggling Jack and Wild Winter come back to win and finish up close in their next starts, both with above par Quirins. Pimental, however, is 2-51 now with 2Ss. Berliner (3) comes out of that big race that saw Silver Defense et.al. put up bigger numbers than a $32K Optional Claimer (an hour earlier). Ward has favored Mawing this season. Carrasco Jr. is 8-15 Win with 1OC + Class Change types (Open to N2Y). Doesn’t look right that he hasn’t entered Junction (5) until today though and his IV is 0.72 with L1-3s, but he is 3-9 Win with the L1-3 + 1OC in L4T.

3,4,5/6,7 (but a paltry profit turns us off)

2^nd – Carrasco Jr. comes to the table with the same angle as in Race 1. Rodriguez is 14-16 ITM with the Plain Dropdown and 9-13 ITM with FBKs and tries both angles for the first time at the meeting today. The 1,2 & 3 come from trainers that are in the basement for AEPS (below the 20^th percentile). Pimental is now 2-63 with Stretchouts and has a ML of 3-1.

$25 Exacta Box 6,7 ($50)

3^rd – Out of the 9s last, Smarty Cat (Winner) got an ass whoopin’ on the RB as did Revelment (2^nd) and She’s Euphoric (4^th). In the interest of fair and balanced reporting Dini did have one of his “miracles” when Sugar Fix (who beat Bella Linda by 1) came back to be 2^nd a nose. Strong Gem nosed out Sugar Fix (see aforementioned) with an 81-76. Today’s par is 83-83.  KOC is 16-29 Win with Non-layoff S + Dropdown types, but Gallardo missed twice as the favorite with this type for KOC already. It’s a roll of the dice. Chavez is 40% ITM with the FTS + FTT angle. As Mr. Horse on Ren and Stimpy would say, “No sir, I don’t like it!”

Pass

4^th – While Cazares dances the Rueda Salsa down in Miami (you know it when you hear it), KC Twostep (3) does the Winner’s Circle (or at least The Bomb) dance in Tampa. Freshman surrogate Cameron sets the table for Cazares on the Plain Stretchout here. Six of her 17 bombs were this type. KC missed by 9 but only 4 clicks below par in last. KC beat Sunshines Out by two on 12/13 and that one came back fast to win with a +7. The 1 is out of the same race but doesn’t have the intrigue going. Gonzalez has not been the favorite yet at the meeting, but she is 80% ITM when she is in this situation. Mr. Bennett is 26-53 Win when the favorite on the FBK. Which one gets the $$$?

BF The Exception (6) had a desirable trip and a +4 final Quirin, but couldn’t get it done while racing erratically mid-stretch. He was eased late once clear for the place and Centeno sticks for Azpurua, now 1-13 with Sprints on the Dirt here in L5T.

$10 Trifectas 1,3,4,6/3,4/1,3,4,6 (12 bets)($120)

5^th – OFF TURF – Hemingway is a ticking time bomb on the grass and he hasn’t detonated yet. 13 of 15 of Ian’s bombs have been Distance Changes on the Turf and he’s 6-9 ITM with the StR + DtoT. He’s also 5-13 ITM with 2TTs at $9.30-1. It’s only a question of time…

KOC is 50% ITM with RBs and Shortenups and is 52-121 Win when the Plain Favorite (77% ITM). FF was par in last. Gallardo is not up to rob us. Scratch of the 1 changes picture. Hem is 22% and 61% in OSTs and Rigattieri is 5-6 ITM. Both try the angle for the first time at the meeting.

$25 Place and Show 4 ($50)

$5 Exacta Key Box 4/5,8 ($20)

$0.50 Trifectas All/4,8/4,5,8 (20 bets)($10)

For those with deep pockets only (see below):

6^th – Sweezey’s Simply Great (6) shot out of the gate like a cannon and made a 106-107 in last. Today’s par is 99-99 but he’s 1-28 moving UC and 0-13 with RBs. What to do?

There have been no duds claimed from Hemingway and GQ Girl (2) loves this track.

Trifectas All/2,6,7/2,6,7 (30 bets)

7^th – Trifectas 1,3,4/1,3,4,6,7/1,3,4,6,7 (45 bets)

8^th – Too much shenanigans to make a serious play here. Wright via Raymond has a 50% ITM angle. Sweezey has two 0-fers going but he bombs with 2TSs. Harty is 1-13 with UCEs but both look ok. Schuh made the harrowing trip across Route 60 and was rewarded for his effort. There more too, but you get the idea….

Pass

9^th – Trifecta Box 4,5,7,8

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 1/1/2020

Happy New Year !!!! ….hoping Sunday’s early result is a harbinger of bigger and better things to come this new year ….. all things told, the return on the combined days outlay of $15 total, wasn’t too shabby, especially if your wagers were in before the announced scratches, and you were rewarded with the full dollars’ payout ($227.90)…….. a just reward for our diligent works, closing out the year ….……. we march forward ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 3, 6, 7 WT 9 ** WT 4, 6, 7 WT 1, 3, 8… $.50 … $13.50

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 6, 7 WT 1, 2, 6, 7 WT 5 WT 6, 7… $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

*******

Dec. 18^th

1^st – Nikki Bella (2) was defeated (while beating par) by a couple of legit N2Xers and gets the nod on the double class drop for Arriagada, who outperforms with all these singles and historically offers good value. If Wilson gets action, he’s reliable for a piece when 5-2 or less.

Win 2 (Best Bet) and Exacta 2/5

2^nd – Again Arriagada looks right for a piece as he’s at least 50% ITM with several multiple angles. Rigattieri looks right for a piece also, after going fast early at 8F on the grass in first try of the meeting. John’s over 50% ITM with his angles and is almost a sure thing to be ITM if the favorite today.

Trifectas All/1,4/1,4,5,7 (30 bets)

3^rd – Westlye pops with FBK + Distance Change angle but Camacho jumps.

Trifectas All/4/1,6,7 (18 bets)

4^th – Malio’s (3) was par in first try and is the obvious choice based on “fit and ready” considerations. 8.5F may prove to be a bit of a challenge, but JH Delgado hasn’t taken any missteps yet.

Trifectas All/3,8/3,6,8 (21 bets)

5^th – TURF ONLY – Bar Libre (2) was closest to par and made a par Final fraction and along with Potts’ piece, they are the only runners with a race over the track. This type has an IV of 1.27 before Santa comes. Merry Christmas!

Exacta Key Box 2/1,3,4

6^th – Dale Bennett goes for Win #700 here. He’s 3 days short of a 7-15 Win angle (L1-3 + RB + UC + No DC) but is also 32% Win with Non-layoff Shippers. Had the bias in three better than par win at this distance last winter for Navarro.

$40 Weighted Exacta Key 1/2,3,4

7^th – TURF ONLY – No winning angles here, but Granitz is 65% ITM with the L1-3 + S + Shortenup and 54% ITM off the claim. Tsirigotis is 42% ITM when < $9-1. Sweezey is weak with these singles but he is 13-23 ITM with the StR + DtoT.

Trifectas All/2/3,9,11 or 1 if the 11 is out (24 bets)

8^th – Pass

9^th – TURF ONLY – Harty is solid with these singles and already made par with this 3YO ten months ago.

Exactas 10/2,4 and Saver Trifectas 10/5/2,4

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 12/18/2019

Normally, the frustration sets in when I’m hitting my normal 3 outta 4, however, this is becoming stale in a big hurry …4 plays from 8 sucks, no matter how one

looks at it, and the fact that 2 were “all” plays makes it even more frustrating …. the 2 we’ve hit thus farare pale and need to be remedied by a $200 payer, in conservative terms …. Luck be a Lady ?? HA !!

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 2, 5 WT 7** WT 3, 8 WT 3,5, 10, (13) … $.50 … $ 9.00 ($12.00)

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 8, 10 WT 2, 4 WT 6, 7, 9 WT 2, 7 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

*******************

Wednesday, Dec. 11^th

1^st – On Saturday, every dirt winner was on the lead or < ½ beaten length at the 2^nd Call over the fastest surface at the current meeting. That condition may linger today. Zeus Odin (1) failed as the BF in $7K SALW on 11/26 but that surface has sunken many over the years. Still, it was disappointing.

Wild Winter (2) was nothing but trouble as a youngster with gate problems that often had him off very slowly, but he’s improved enough to be Allen’s #3 top earner and will strike if the conjugal connections agree that today is the day and if early speed types are not the presumptive winners again today.

If there’s one thing I like, it’s knowing when the linemaker has missed the mark completely. Like Lichoa’s soundly beaten 2^nd choice (and ML favorite) in Saturday’s 2^nd race, Sammy’s Mineshaft (6) should not be the 2^nd ML choice today. Pimental, who has no record with UCEs, is now 1-68 win with Shipper + Dropdown types (that solitary win was on 12/4). Lightning doesn’t strike twice. Nevertheless, John is 50% ITM with TtoDs in 34 tries.

$1 Trifectas All/2/3,6 (10 bets) ($10)

2^nd – Victor Lebron makes the trip to Tampa for yet another mount on this mutt? I smell something brewing. Woodard has had 3 PTB bombs and Acaseaday (7) comes from a 14.4% Winning sire here.

$5 ATB 7 ($15)

3^rd – West Horizen (4) bombed three times here at average odds of $15-1. Comes from a high value trainer. Westlye’s piece presents with his favorite bomb angles.

$0.50 Trifectas 1,2,3/All/4,6 (36 bets)($18)

4^th – Gallardo is a rat bastard sandbagger. He missed 18 times as the odds-on favorite last year and is only 3-13 as the favorite this year. Read the comments when he misses. They are enough to make you sick. Tanked in Stakes on Saturday at $0.70-1. When will I ever learn? If he’s supposed to win, I’m not playing unless he’s a solid “bet against”!

Pass

5^th – With Dale Bennett, very often, the action trumps the angles. He’s 14% Win with 1PTB and 2L1-3s, but 44% Win and 75% ITM when < $2.60-1 (for the past ten years). Gotta watch and wait. His Dad, has the best singles in the field and has not missed the board with Santos at the meeting. Two year-olds surprise (as we observed on Saturday).

Trifectas All/10/3,5,9 (24 bets) unless DB meets his action requirement, then 6,10 Exacta Box

6^th – Naughty Shirley (5) worked very sharply before making solid EP four days later on the lawn. Mr. Bennett has not missed the board with a Dropdown at the meeting, is 24% Win with FBKs and 63% ITM with RtS + Dropdown types and par with PTBs. He’s 3-7, 5-7 with Camacho up and 48% Win if the favorite today. Will be claimed. Nobody’s fooled by last.

$25 Win 5 and Conditional $25 DD 5/10 for $9-15 only

7^th – Stidham is now 17-20 ITM here when the favorite with 10 wins. Belmont shippers have an IV of 1.62 and this one made +7 Final Fraction there in SALW50 over the summer.  Another one likely to be claimed today. Stidham (one of our top Value Trainers) is not fooling anybody either.

$25 Win 10 if not alive in the DD

8^th – As a general matter, one must be on the lead or < 1 BL to win at 7F here and Inca Princess (7) at least likes to race forwardly. How’s it going? Don’t ask me. I just work here, can’t you see…

Trifectas All/3/7 and Saver Exacta Box 3,7

9^th – Avoiding 2YOs and Gallardo. Let’s call it a day.

Pass

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 12/11/2019

UGH ….Damn near a whitewash on Saturday’s big 2 YO day.

Thank goodness the 2 YO nightmare will be over in 2 weeks.2 YO’s this time of the year are shaky, at best …..the majority will join the maiden 8’s very soon. ….UGH …JB and SM will understand why the 8th today, was a veryrough go, as my favorite trainer has one in  …… WE MUST CONTINUE TO TRY

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 7, 8 WT 1, 2, 3, 6 WT 4 **WT 5, 10 … $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 5 WT 2, 7, 10 WT 2, 7 WT 8, 10 … $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet ** (Other than Rick Creel) 

********

December 4th, 2019

1^st – KOC is 23% Win with 2YOs and has a +$1.20 ROI with FTSs. Sir Doctor Bob (2) has grandsires that produced about 10 winners each year here since 2011. Roberson has had 10 lightly raced bombs. Sienkewicz is 4-12 ITM with FTSs and Bill is in the 80^th percentile for trainer value.

Exacta Key Box 2/1,6 and Saver Trifectas 2/3/1,6 (2 bets)

2^nd – Stidham is 46% Win with 2YOs and is 82% ITM if the favorite in this situation. He also wins 27% with 2TSs with 55% ITM. Sweezey is 0-7 with TtoDs and 1-12 Win with 2YOs. Harty is par and outperforms with 2YOs.

Win 5 if the favorite

3^rd – Yanez has a respectable 14% W and 31% ITM on the grass record in L5T and Vintner (2), in uncharacteristic form, was on the lead nearing the turn before weakening in last. 3% Turf jock doesn’t add confidence. Wasiluk is 52% ITM (17-33) with Centeno up in L2T. Correas IV is 54% ITM with his angle and he’s surprised many times with lightly raced types and Chief of Joy (8) made a par final fraction here last season. Kielty is 40% ITM with DtoT types at $24-1.

$0.50 Trifectas All/8/1,2,4,6 (32 bets) ($16)

4^th – Double Deep (3) may be just that, with solid bloodlines that go back to Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer. Their progeny win about 80% of all the races at Tampa in the modern era and the gelding’s grandsires have a solid record of success here in Oldsmar as well. O’Connor is close to 50% ITM with these singles and has won 23% with the L1-3 + Stretchout move (6 of 26). Camacho is up. Ward is 22% Win and 49% ITM with TtoDs and Done Acting (5) is a switch hitter. Dennis is also 49% ITM with Non-layoff Shortenups and once over the track types had an IV of 1.27 in the early weeks of the last meeting. Rigattieri’s UCE both have 2-56 Win angles.

Exacta Box 3,5

5^th – Mr. Bennett is par with all his singles here and is 82% ITM on the Rightback. At least we don’t have to proffer excuses before we bet this one. Delgado is 8-9 ITM with Layoffs, but this one looks wrong. KOC’s piece got the smack down from the older boys but Kathy is par with False Info’s (8) angles.

$0.50 Trifectas 1-9/7/3,5,8,9 (28 bets) ($14)

6^th – Miller is not a frequent FBK trainer, but he had one here a couple of years back and a casual look at his 2019 starts show a couple of others that hit the board this year. Batista sticks. Palavecino bombed in two of four tries with FTSs last season. Roberson is 1-9 with FTSs (also a bomb). Failure as the odds-on favorite three times in a row is enough to make you wanna take up knitting. Mr. Bennett has no angle today too. Cazares is 0-28 with Shippers here.

Exacta Box 3,8 and Saver Trifectas 3,8/All/3,8 (12 bets)

7^th – We must let the money do the talking here. Stidham is 53% Win and 82% ITM if he is the favorite with his circumstances. I like that he claimed Rosebud’s Hope (3) right back for $50K. The one that beat her in last was 2^nd best in a Black Type on the grass at Parx in previous start. Delacour’s Madame Milan (9) has a 34% Win angle in 44 tries, but Delacour has an IV of 0.55 when not the favorite. To complicate matters further, he may have a UCE here (if 11 draws in), in which case he is 41% Win and 82% ITM.  So it’s hurry and wait with our hands tied. Raymond is 3-59 with DtoTs. Motion is 15% Win with StRs. Potts is 0-23 with Stretchouts (but is usually in the money).

3 Win if the favorite or 9 Win if the favorite

8^th – A wide open race for place and show. Belsoeur (4-9 ITM in Sprints on the Dirt) via Caruso looks ok. Hinsley is 72% ITM with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown and Hawthorne shippers have an IV of 1.29, but David goes off his regular boy (Santos) and his other two riders are already engaged here. Westlye has two bomb factors present. Ochoa via Negrete will pop sooner or later and Baxter is now 7-9 ITM with 4 Wins for Averill.

$1.00 Trifectas 1,8/2,3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,8 (32 Bets)($32) and Saver Exacta Box 1,8 to cover

9^th – Blair is par with 2L1-3s but wins 32% with Shippers and outperforms with UC and DtoT types. CD shippers have an IV of 1.35. Went with -1 Final Fraction in maiden win and gets Gallardo in the irons. Allen looks to get something going (0-6). Cazares dumps ice cold (on the board) Kingdom Kept (7) after one try off the long layoff.

Exacta Key Box 9/4,5,8

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa for 12/04/2019

Hey ….5/2 on a $9 ticket is better than tossing it on the ground, right ??!! We’ll look to get a fatter pot today. I’ve always had tremendous respect for Castanon, but the ride he gave What a Hoot on Friday was one of the all-timeworst …makes one wonder …..Onward ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 6** WT 2, 6, 8 WT 1, 3, 6, 7 WT 3,8 … $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 3, 7, 8 WT 1, 3, 4, 9 WT 8** WT 5, 9 … $.50 … $16.00

Co-Best Bets (you know why)

********

November 27th, 2019

Welcome back to our long-time regulars and welcome aboard to our first-time subscribers!

It’s our pleasure to serve you at our 13^th Tampa meeting! Patrons are reminded that only selections in bold type will get my action and only those will be counted towards my record throughout the meeting.

1^st – Raymond is 5-17 Win in L3T with L1-3 + S types and maiden win went par last spring. He had some good luck with JA Garcia last year. Makes for a sensible win bet but would like to have seen more than one race in the last four months. The Carole Star Stables (see #1) is 26% W and 60% ITM from 103 starts and made a good showing here last season, however GP shippers have a sub-par IV in the early weeks of the meeting. Galvan offers solid value regularly but is 6% Win with StRs here in Oldsmar. Westlye’s piece has all his bomb characteristics going and strikes about 17% of the time when they are present: FBK, Class Change, Distance Change.

$1 Trifectas 1,5,7/9/1,2,3,5,7 (12 bets) ($12)

2^nd – Navarro has solid singles all around, including the FBK, 27% Win and 53% ITM, but he’s only tried it once or twice each year for the past ten years. It’s not like the angle is his side of bacon to go with his eggs; indeed, it’s more like a fresh avocado slice added as an occasional changeup for someone with a sophisticated palate. Sharp Palm Meadows work and satisfactory chute rider add to the temptation, but Simply Great (7) will have a target on its back.

$1 Trifectas 2-8/7/2-8 (30 bets) ($30)

3^rd – Sweezey has a UCE here, both with very similar multiple angles. Likely among them is a 100% ITM angle for the Shipper + Dropdown at < $6-1 odds (4-10, 10-10), as well as two other 75% ITM multiple angles. He’s 9-13 ITM with UCE’s with two wins and 4-11 ITM with 2YOs (but with only one winner). KOC is 23% Win here with 2YOs and has a 39% Win angle if the favorite. Either way, Kathy has two other, distinct, > 50% ITM multiple angles, but all that said, it’s only par for her operation.

Exacta Box 5,7,10

4^th – In these Optional Claimers, 60% are won by a previous winner entered for a tag or a runner with at least three N1X starts and at least three wins (henceforth to be referred to as a “3+3”). Padilla’s piece also fits the criteria but he’s only 4-58 Win here with Shippers and has a very low ITM value index. Pasco placed Cave Run (5) looks OK but has disappointed often.

$1 Trifectas All/3,4,6/5 (12 bets) ($12)

5^th – Very disappointing finish while one click from favoritism in last (despite otherwise respectable record) puts us off Dini claim. Furthermore, Mike has won only 2 of 37 with this type at Tampa and only 7% with Shippers. Danner had two PTB bombs last year for Rivelli. She babysits here for Cibelli (17% W and 45% ITM LT at Tampa) with Mr. Discretionary (6), a runner from a solid stable, with good final fractions and Centeno in the irons.

$0.50 Trifectas 6/All/1,4,5,7 (32 bets) ($16)

6^th – If the top choice at the windows, Negrete is 6-10 Win and 10-10 ITM in this situation. Javier also is in the 80^th percentile for trainer value. If not the favorite, our choice becomes Mr. Bennett’s Little Turn (6). Gerry is 32% Win with his multiple angle and he is 21% Win with TtoD types.

Win 5 if the favorite, otherwise Trifectas 6/All/1,2,5 (30 bets)

7^th – Astute Warrior (1) was par in April 12^th win here and made a par final fraction at today’s distance in September. Rodriguez is another conditioner that offers good value and Gallardo (34% Win for Rodriguez in L2T) is up.

$2 Trifectas 1/2,5,7,10/2,5,7,10 (12 bets) ($24) and $25 Win 1

8^th – Stidham is 53% Win (9-17) with Shippers that are the top choice, 67% ITM (10-15) with Non-layoffs moving UC, as well as 50% Win (4-8) when moving UC and the favorite. Let the board do the talking…

Win 9 if favorite (otherwise pass)

9^th – Aqueduct shippers have an IV of 1.7 here before Christmas in L7T and Ryan is 4-7 Win with UCEs with 6-7 ITM. Unabridged (4) has very solid final fractions and must anchor the play.

$2 Trifectas 4/1,6,7/1,6,7,10(12,13) (up to $30) and $25 Win 4

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays at Tampa 11/27

Having survived the Summer Festival of Racing, we will now attempt to withdraw heavily from the regular meet bank …theirs, not ours. Welcome back to all, and welcome to our new subscribers ….. As my hero, Harvey Pack, would say …..”May the Horse Be With You!”

Best Luck to us all !!

Early Pick 4 (2-5) …. 3, 4, 7, 8 WT 2, 8, 10 WT 3 ** WT 3, 6… $.50 … $12.00

Late Pick 4 (6-9) …. 2, 5 WT 1, 5, 7 WT 1, 10 WT 4, 6 ... $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

***********************************************

Wednesday, May 1^st

The funny thing about faith is the moment I lose it, something happens to remind me of just how weak I really am, of how I’ve only been pretending to have it, of how little faith I actually possess…

After just three tries, I gave up on Arboritanza’s 39% Win angle for the final three weeks of the last five meetings and badaboom, a $37.20 winner, with my other choice underneath for a $128.60 exacta.

I’m frequently not worthy of my own creation…and often my own worst enemy.

1^st – Palacios-Molina is 1-49 with Stretchouts and 1-16 with FBKs. Creel plays games going to Lusk who was 0-20 with Layoffs at EMD and PM in 2018-19. His piece was par in last and has been working very sharply.

Pick 3 – 2,6/2,5,6,7/5

2^nd – Morales is on fire winning 5 of last 12 with 9 ITM. KOC has a UCE angle 31% Win and 78% ITM. Mena is also hot with 20% Wins in the past two weeks as is his employer Dale Bennett. Cazares is now 3-23 moving UC but Zodiac Princess’ (2) Quirins in maiden win were 110-95 and today’s par is 89-88.

Pick 3 – 2,5,6,7/5/3

3^rd – We play detective again in another game of Deception here. Parra is 3-61 with PTBs (see #2), but is 67% ITM with RtS + Dropdown types (see #5). Risk Reversal (5) went six panels in +13 over the bullet par last month. Again, P-M is 1-49 with Stretchouts.

$7 Trifectas 3,4,6/3,4,6/5 (6 bets) ($42) (out of respect for Kevin who is off the 5)

Exacta Key Box 5/3,4,6 to cover

4^th – KOC is 0-58 with UC + Surface Change types. Colebrook is 68% ITM when < $6-1 for five years running.

$150 Weighted DDs 3,4,5/7

5^th – Hard Count (7) was well above par in both starts here. 

$15 Pick 3s – 7/3,5/7 ($30) (also for Kevin, I prefer the all button)

Parlay ½ of any winnings in DD to R7

7^th – KOC is 33% Win and 87% ITM when a 3TS + Favorite. Kathleen also has the UCE going (31% W & 78% ITM). Her FTS gets the hot rider, but she’s only 12% ITM with two going.

Win 7 or Weighted DD Wheel 7/All (wherever the value is, if there is any).

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for Un De Mai 

R 7 on Sunday appeared to be another “let’s get the feed man paid” kind of race ….as a 6% trainer bests the chalk, who is trained by a 20%’er and had the hottest jock in the depleted colony on board for a 4 wide and “even” trip ……the bleeding ends soon ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 5, 6, 7 WT 3, 4, 6 WT 3 ** WT 3, 4, 5, 7 … $.50 … $24.00

Late Pic 4 (5-8) …. 1, 2, 6, 7, 8 WT 3, 5 WT 6, 7, 8 WT 4, 5 … $.50 … $30.00

Best Bet **

*****

Wednesday, April 24^th

1^st – Ashlie Nicole (5) was not asked till mid-stretch then responded well and was eased late with a +10, +7 in last. Gallardo jumps to the one with the better singles. Looks like one or the other. Still it may be very competitive.

Pick 3 – 4,5/1,2,5,6/8

2^nd – Sum Mo Cash (3) was above par in last and comes Rightback without moving up in class.  That would be too easy. Ward is 1-14 with RBs and 14% Win with No Changes in L2T.

1,2,5,6/3/All (20 bets)

3^rd – Urban Buckeye (8) goes for Hemingway who is 42% Win and 77% ITM when the favorite. Ian doubles his ordinary strike rate with No Change types. The 3YO dueled from midway in the far turn to the wire and just weakened late with a +4,+3 last time out.

Win 8

DD 8/2

4^th – Why not Dale Bennett, who is 6-16 Win recently and 29% Win off the claim? Last was par. If the rest have any good cards, they ain’t showing them.

Win 2

5^th – Whatever was bothering Divine Ambition (1) he’s over it, going +12 in last. Bowersock has two 50% ITM angles here

Win 1

6^th – KOC will be 3-5 and should be. Yanez is 30% Win and 70% ITM with Plain Shortenups (and 3 of 4 ITM this season).

Conditional $50 Exacta 1/6 for $15

$25 Saver Trifecta 1/4/6

Weighted DDs 1,4,6/3,6

7^th – Pick 3 – 3/1,3,4,6/3,4,8,9 (16 bets)

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 04/24

The neglect of not hitting the “ALL” button in R 2 on Saturday’s early play, which would have turned the $6 ticket into a meager $12 ticket, cost us $95. Had been looking for Allen, who’s been downright dreadful since his return from a mysterious vacation, except on Bowersock’s pieces, for our value in the latter sequenceand not on a Connelly charge …. enough…

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 6 WT 5, 8 WT 2, 7, 9 WT 1, 5 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 4, 6 WT 3, 6, 8 WT 1, 8, 9 WT 4 ** … $.50 … $13.50

Best Bet **

****

Wednesday, April 17^th

PP1 is now 1-44 in April.

Today and for the rest of the meeting we get to utilize my “Clean Up Batter” stats, representing those trainers who have outperformed in the final three weeks of the meeting for the past five years. It is what it is…

A good day for pure gambling, but nothing to hang our hats on stats wise…

1^st – Allen Jr. is now 2-28 since returning when not up for Bowersock. Several runners in this race have been par recently. Centeno had a $5000 weekend in my back yard with two 2nds from three mounts at Aqueduct and should be rested up. Since he’s had some competition here in Oldsmar, his winning numbers have steadily declined from 102 to 83 to 65 in L3T and this has caused him to stick around longer and pick up the remaining crumbs as the season winds down and others pack up their tack and depart or have made their $$$ and are taking a breather before their next push.

Exacta Key Box 7/3,5

2^nd – The 3 + 3 profile hasn’t let us down this season and father and son appear likely to be neck and neck at the finish versus these. They both have ITM angles in the high 60s here, with Mr. Bennett 32% Win with UCEs and the younger 29% Win with Rightbacks.

Exacta Box 2,6

Weighted DDs 2,6/3,4,8

3^rd – Harty is 54% ITM with NCs and outperforms with 3TTs including two big bombs at the current meeting with the angle. Arboritanza “cleans up” with 39% Win and 58% ITM versus his ordinary 9% and 25%.

Exacta Key Box 4/3,8 and Saver Trifectas 3,4,8/1,6,7/3,4,8

4^th – I had to break out the external hard drive to find a trainer profile for Eric Reed (2011) but he was 25% Win with L1-3s and 2Ss here. JPM is strictly a surrogate for the Kentucky invader from Lexington. Londono is 70% ITM with Non-layoffs on the Dirt. KOC rarely misses with FTSs with a +$0.67 ROI.

Exacta Box 5,7,8

Saver Trifectas 5,7,8/1,2,3/5,7,8

5^th – Pick 3 – 1,4,6,7,8,10/6,7,8/6,8 (36 bets)

6^th – JPM is 2-75 with PTBs. Thomas is 1-34 with L4-8s, Pimental is 3-56 with Dropdowns, 5% with Non-shipping L1-3 and Sammy (5) is sub-par in all four Tampa starts. Ward is 80% ITM with Plain Dropdowns in L3T and 65% ITM with the RtS + Dropdown with all solid singles. Mr. Bennett is 32% Win and 80% ITM with UCEs and Flower Punch (7) has a 72% ITM angle. M.R. Thomas “cleans up” with 22 & 71 versus 12 & 37.

Exacta Box 6,7,8

7^th – Clement is 24% Win with FTS + FTT types and Sumaya Us are powerhouse owners with an AEPS of $16,500 in L3 and 27% Winners. Distorted Humor is the #2 Sire here in Oldsmar with 22% Winners. Morales and Camacho both win 10% with FTSs, so the nod goes to Clement.

Old Fort (6) was +4 in debut with the only positive turf variant of the day and has a perfect %E (50 vs. 49.99) for the StR move. Correas Jr. bombs with Layoffs and Lightly raced types. Making up four lengths late when they are flying is noteworthy. Comparing R7 to R8, Old Fort looks like a lock compared to Gonzalez’s ML favorite Elegante. Just sayin’…

Pick 3 – 6/All/3

Exacta Box 6,8

Saver Trifectas 1/6,8/All

8^th – DDs All/3

9^th – Harty is 34% Win and 66% ITM with the 2TS + 2TT in L5T and Indigo Gin (3) was above par in debut.

Saver Exactas 2,6,8,9/3 to cover if alive to a big DD or Pick 3

Mr. Pick Four’s Daily Plays for Wednesday, April 17^th

Dale Bennett is a very good trainer. His decision to try Delaware instead of returning to Arlington cost him dearly. After a rough start, the barn has turned things around in a big way this meet. His early troubles had me tossing any of his entrants, so, to see him as my best bet today is testament to the outfits turn around…… meanwhile, the craziness continues on the toteboard … one can only assume that feed and vet bills are getting paid before the final exodus ….we soldier on …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 6** WT 3, 4, 6, 8 WT 6, 7, 8 WT 1, 2, 7 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5, 6, 7, 8 WT 2, 5 WT 6 WT 3, 4, 6, 8… $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet ** 

******

Wednesday, April 10^th

1^st – Gingermore (6) presents with competing angles. Johns was 25% Win in P2T with Non-shipping L1-3s on Opening Day but is 0-11 this year. At the same time, he is 40% Win with Dropdowns in L3T. We are remined that the difference between an Open $10K and a C5N1Y is just two clicks.

I would BET AGAINST Ferraro whose IV is 0.39 with Non-shipping 2L1-3s.

DDs 2,4,5/8

3^rd – Raymond has an IV of 0.5 with 1^st 3 OC. Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.62 with 2S + No Class Change types. Harty will be the favorite and he has two winning angles with IVs of 3.5 in these circumstances. The “King of the OSTs” scratched Bourbon Tan on Friday, apparently wanting for BT to break maiden on the lawn. Last three were well above par versus open company.

Win 5 (Best Bet)

DDs 5/3,7

4^th – Sienkewicz is on fire, winning 3 of last 4 and 5 of last 13. Curiously, he’s only 20% Win when the favorite and that appears to explain last. Previous two were par. Solid apprentice has Judith (7) shedding 7 lbs. here. KOC is 27% Win with firsters and she wins 4X as many MCs as MSWs.

DDs 3,7/1,5,7

5^th – Competing angles for Bennett complicates matters here. Gerry is only 5% Win with FBK + UC types but 88% ITM with 2L + FBKs. He’s also 46% Win when the favorite on the FBK. If I was playing, I’d stick to the ML choices.

Trifectas 1,5,7/All/1,5,7 (30 bets)

6^th – Gonz is 47% ITM with Plain UCs. I’ll give her a piece at $10-1.

Trifectas 2,4,6,7/All/3 (20 bets)

7^th – There’s a lot of hinky stuff going on here with 1,3,7,9 & 11.

Exacta Box 4,6

Saver Trifectas 4,6/1,2,3,7,9,11/4,6 (12 bets)

9^th – Hubba Bubba (7) inherited the obligation to apply the pressure in last hurting his chances. Different trip could have different outcome for the Gospel Rocker from Ocala, Johnny Collins. Praise the Lord!

Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/2,4,5

Saver Trifectas 2,4,5/2,4,5/7 (6 bets)

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 04/10

Thought we had a shot at the brass ring Sunday, but the incessant badgering by a 25-1 shot cost us the front end shot, in the nightcap…. hate seeing those value horses go to waste……. trying still ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 5, 8 WT 5, 7, 8, (11) WT 3, 7, 11 WT 1, 3, 5 … $.50 … $ 27.00 ( $ 36.00)

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 4, 7 WT 4, 7 WT 1, 3, 8 WT 4 ** …$.50 … $9.00

Best Bet **

******

Wednesday, April 3rd

Only “The TBD Handicapper” has the data to back up touting $44-1 shots that run 2nd and that’s no lie.

1^st – Trifecta 6/2/4

2^nd – RD Allen Jr. is now 2-25 since returning. He’s beginning to get some “mercy mounts”.

Trifectas All/6/2,3,8

3^rd – Trifecta 8/5/1

4^th – KOC is 48% Win (13-27) when the favorite in this situation. Kathleen is also 48% ITM with all 2TS + 2TT types. My quirky friend from Oxnard, California, Margaret Wetherington is 7-14 ITM with Plain Shortenups (with 4 Wins). She’s always overlooked. Raymond is 14-225 with Shortenups (and most of those were in Sprints on the Dirt). 2-1?

Win 10

Trifectas 10/9/3

Saver Superfectas 10/3,9/8,12/3,9

Weighted DDs 10/1,3,4

5^th – Ward is 83% ITM with Plain Dropdowns and 51% ITM with Plain Distance changes. Dorothy (3) is like that girlfriend who just isn’t doing it for you anymore. She’s got something, but not what you want.

Exacta Box 1,3,4

7^th – Weighted 3,4,6/7

8^th – Delacour is 41% Win and 81% ITM with UCEs. He’s 85% ITM when the favorite in Music Maker’s (7) situation and 34% Win. MM appears to be the well-intended, but Sunday’s FTS + FTT bomb, must leave one guessing.

Saver Trifectas 9,10/7/2,5,9,10 (6 bets)

9^th – Layoff + Dropdown Cerro (7) and a lack of any solid MATP data, make this one unplayable.

Pass

10^th – Dini has hit the board in 10 of last 16, after poor, 15 of 40 ITM showing prior to the past month. I gotta believe he’s gonna continue to make up for lost time. Over the years, I’ve spun a few yarns, never just out of thin air, but perhaps favoring some facts over others, in the interest of telling a nice, tight story. Suarez, aboard Penny Rose (8) hasn’t had a mount on the grass in five months. Suarez, aboard Penny Rose (8) was 5 for 6 Win or Place in last six on the grass. Create your own little narrative tale…after u see what he does in races 2, 4 & 6….

Trifecta Box 2,3,8,9

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 04/03

Well, it appears the new juice wasn’t all that effective when it came to handicapping …. perhaps a clearer head with a few days under my belt now, may offer slightly (hopefully immensely) better results …..we shall see ….. the meet is screaming to a close, and we still need to hit the equalizer …. maybe today

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 5, 8 WT 1, 9, 10 WT 1, 3, 4, 8 WT 9** … $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 4 WT 2, 5, 7, 10 WT 6, 7 WT 2, 3 … $.50 … $16.00

Best Bet (sort of) **

***********

IT’s “BET AGAINST” WEDNESDAY!

Wednesday, March 27^th

IT’S “BET AGAINST” WEDNESDAY!

Rarely are so many distinguished bet against types observed on the same card.

Lay in or miss out!

1^st – Padilla’s is 0-27 with StRs and 0-7 with 2^nd off the Long Layoff. Bet against Racinrosemary (6) (9-2).

Saver Pick 3 – 1-5/1,5,7/4 (15 bets) to cover

2^nd – Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.58 with 2L + No Class Change Types. Bet against Game Lad (2) (2-1).

Pick 3 – 1,5,7/2,5,7/6,8 (18 bets)

3^rd – Hendry has an IV of 0.48 with Non-layoffs on the dirt. Bet against Don’t Charge It (3) (7-2).

Exacta Key Box 4/2,5,7

Pick 4 – 2,4,5,7/6,8/1-6/8 (48 bets)

4^th – Stidham is 2-33 with Non-shipping L1-3s. Bet against Good Marks (1).

$100 Weighted Trifectas 6,8/1,3,4,5/6,8

Saver Exacta 6,8 to cover

5^th – Carrasco Jr. is winless in 11 tries with firsters on the dirt. Bet against Princess Miley (7).

See R3 Pick 4

6^th – Motion has two Non-shipping L1-3s and he’s 1-32 with these. Stidham also has a Non-shipping L1-3 and he’s 2-33 with these. Bet against #s 4,5 & 6. Caveat emptor: Motion is 5-16 Win with UCEs.

Exacta Key Box 8/1,7,9

Saver Trifectas 1,7,8/4,6,9/1,7,8

7^th – Weighted DDs All/4

8^th – Raymond is 6% Win with Shortenups and 5% with Non-layoffs on the Turf. Bet against Wicked Boy (1).

Saver Exactas 5,10,11/4

9^th – DDs 5,6,7/5

10^th – KOC is 3% with FTS + FTT types. Bet against Zumbya (9).

Saver Trifectas 1-4,6-8,10/5/1,6,7 to cover (24 bets)

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 03/27

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5, 7 WT 1, 6, 8 WT 1, 5 WT 1, 4 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 5 WT 4, 5, 9, (11) WT 6** WT 1, 5, 6, 10   $.50 … $12.00 (16.00)

Best Bet **

*******

Wednesday, March 20^th

Weather had us expecting an OFF THE TURF day, creating a bit of turmoil with today’s selections…

1^st – After a shaky start, Navarro is 14 of last 18 ITM with 8 Wins. First Deal (5) has a 57% Win angle (78% ITM).

Exacta Key Box 5/2,6

2^nd – Weighted DDs 3,6,7/6

3^rd – Luna Fortis (6) was well above par in last two and Delacour outperforms with all three singles. Winning trainers don’t appear out of thin air (a la Baxter) but owner Sal Ruggiero has an AEPS of $4000 and Londono is 48% ITM lifetime (albeit with no winners).

Win 6

4^th – As always, when they are off the Turf, we want to know who gets it done in OSTs. Colebrook is 8-13 ITM, KOC is Neutral, and Stewart is 22% Win and 58% ITM. If favoritism is to Kathleen, she is 43% Win under these circumstances.

Exacta Box 3,5,6 and Saver Trifectas 3,5,6/2,8/3,5,6

5^th – Pass

6^th – Minieri is 48% ITM with FBKs and 65% ITM Dropdowns + No Distance Change types.

Win 5 or Exacta Box 5,11 if the 11 is in

7^th – Trifectas 3/6,8/1,2,6,8

8^th – Malikia (Et al.) confirmed the bigness of the Feb. 23^rd race on Sunday. Rigattieri is 5-6 ITM in OSTs. Bonita Springs (1) has enough ES to shake free of these as front runners have won 6 of last 10 since the rail was last moved.

DDs 1,9/4,6,7

9^th – Best luck to Tyler Rotstein who makes his training debut today. The Ocala native is out of the Kenneth Marshall camp and has the bug after recent college graduation. He’s in a tough spot today, but you know what they say about beginner’s luck.

Pimental is 16-36 ITM at $12-1 with RtSs. That works for me.

Trifectas 4,6,7/5/4,6,7,10

10^th – Pass

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 03/20 

Scramble on Sunday, to no avail ….even the Best Bet disappoints

….Cold Buds never disappoint ….it was that kind of day ….

Mr Pick 4 …  2-2    …..   The TBDH … 0-4

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 6 ** WT 3, 5, 6, 9 WT 1, 6, 7 WT 5, 6, 9 … $.50 … $18.00

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 6 WT 6 WT 6 WT 6 … $5.00 … $5.00

                               “Midnight Special”

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 2, 3 WT 1, 4, 5, 9 WT 1, 4 WT 4, 7… $.50 … $24.00

****

Wednesday, March 13^th

1^st – A wide open race with all trainers having at least 40% ITM angles. Descarado (4) and Feliciano have the biggest if not the best, 35-51 ITM with Plain Distance Changes. Rountree is 60% ITM with Plain Dropdowns and needs to get something going as the meeting is now in the 4^th Quarter.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,5

2^nd – Camarero apprentice AC Rodriguez makes 2^nd start on the mainland. Surprised several times in first twenty mounts and I wouldn’t dismiss getting 10 lbs for a conditioner that’s 61% ITM with this type.

Exacta Key Box 4/1,2,7

Pick 3 – 1,2,4,7/1,5/3,9,10

3^rd – Negrete is having his best year in a long, long time but 6F looks wrong. Watch the action closely.

Trifectas 1,5/2,7,8/1,5

5^th – Gonzalez has only been favored once at the meeting but may be today. She’s 100% ITM with 5 Wins with Dropdowns and 80% ITM with Stretchouts when the top choice. Pimental has dilemma. He’s 1-56 with Stretchouts but his runner was 4 above par in 1^st OC. He wins only 14% in 1^st 3 OC.

Win 8 and Exactas 8/6,7 if the favorite

DDs 8/1,4,8

7^th – ATB 10

8^th – Delacour is 84% ITM if the top choice here with 11 Wins in 19 tries. Attfield has a $14K AEPS on the grass lifetime.

Exacta Key Box 4/2,3,6

9^th – Mr. Bennett is now 79% ITM with UCEs with 31% Wins. He’s only 14% with TtoDs so Blarp (10), with a 24% Win angle looks better.

Exacta Key Box 10/2,8,9

Saver Trifectas 10/5,7/2,8,9

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 03/13

Fun day, on Sunday, to help defray the Saturday debacle some ….. let’s attempt to keep the course ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 7 WT 1, 5 WT 3, 7, 9 WT 1, 3 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 4, 8, (11) WT 5, 6, 10 WT 2 ** WT 2, 5, 7, 9 … $.50 … $18.00 ($24.00)

Best Bet **

******

Wednesday, March 6^th

1^st – KOC wins 44% with Plain Favorites and 31% with UCEs. All her riders with more than a couple of mounts have at least one win at the meeting. WA Garcia is due for one with Kathy.

Win 3 if the favorite

If 3 is the favorite, then Pick 3 – 3/1-5/2,7,8 (15 bets)

3^rd – Pick 3 – 2,7,8/3,6,7/5,7 (18 bets)

4^th – $7 Pick 3 – 3,6,7/5,7/3,5 (12 bets) ($84)

5^th – Navarro is 12-15 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 with 7 Wins. He’s 70% ITM with Dropdowns and hit the board in 3 of 4 OSTs at the current meeting. Recent Palm Meadows works were razor sharp. On the downside, the Optional Claimers in this condition have an IV of 0.73 for the past nine years. 

$7 (Two-way) Saver Pick 3 – 1,3,6,8/3,5/5 ($56)

7^th – Union Ranks (5) was above par in last two and got more action than expected on the lawn on Jan. 23^rd. Sienkewicz is 50% ITM with one angle and 45% ITM with another. 

$7 Trifectas All/5/3,4 (16 bets) ($102)

9^th – Exacta Box 3,6,8

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 03/06

Mike Allen, after costing us a perfect slate on Wednesday, has been killing our plays all meet …..enough …..

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. All (6) WT 2, 7 WT 4, 7, 9 WT 8**… $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 5 WT 5, 8 WT 7, 9, (14) WT 3, 9 … $.50 … $8.00 ($12.00) 

Best Bet **

****

Wednesday, Feb. 27^th

3^rd – Efren Loza Jr. makes his first appearance of the meeting today with Eltiojohnny (5). Forget the horses history, it is just a distraction. Look at the puppet master and be enlightened.  Loza Jr is 58% Win here when the favorite from 54 starts in L5T (and 44% Win at GP during the same period). He is 100% ITM with Layoff + 1PTB types with 6 wins from 8 starts. He’s 8-9 ITM with RtSs here with 5 wins and 39% Win with S + Dropdown types. Gallardo is 10-16 Win for Efren here. His last start here was a 2TS + L4-8 + S + Dropdown + PTB at the Summer Festival that lost its debut by 58 lengths. It won handily and completed a $1055 daily double payout in our unofficial first wager of the 2018-2019 meeting. Sharp Palm Meadow works and Gallardo in the SLOP are the icing on the cake.

$100 Weighted Pick 3 – 5/1,6,7,10/2,7 or Conditional $100 Win 5 for 9/5 (wherever the value lies and based on R4 DD prices)

4^th – OFF THE TURF – All of these have conditioners with a record of success in OSTs, particularly Motion, who is 7-8 ITM now with 6 wins.

Trifecta Box 1,6,7,10

5^th – Mr. Smurthwaite (of Port Vale FC fame) came back to win in 15 days while moving up in class and that gives King Daddio (7), above par in last, a boost in our ‘most likely to succeed” poll. KOC is 85% ITM with this situation when she has the support of the crowd.

The Pink Rattler beat Kid Slipper and King Daddio on Jan. 20^th, then also moved UIC and was a game third with a 100-95 (today’s par is 90). He Iz Gone, 2^nd in that same race, also came back to win with a 93-97. Santos is 9 for 10 ITM for Bennett this season. Gelding (verb) may improve speed and focus.

A bet here won’t be decided until the money talks with 0.76 inches of rain forecast for yesterday and today, but man, this one looks right.

Conditional $100 Weighted Exacta Box 2,7 (for $11.20/8-5 seems fair)

6^th – TURF or DIRT – KOC is now 0-55 with Plain UC + DtoT types.

Exacta Box 2,3,7

Pick 3 – 2,3,7/3,6,7/1,3,11 (27 bets)

7^th – Pick 3 – 3,6,7/1,3,11/4,10 (18 bets)

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 02/27

Dale Bennett Stables ruins an otherwise perfect day …..all we can say is Stay the Course … thanks, Gramps… picks assume Off TheTurf BEFORE scratches.

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 4, 5 WT 1, 6, 10 WT 2, 7 WT

                      1, 4 … $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 WT 9, 11 WT 10 **

                       WT 2, 7, 10 … $.50 … $15.00

Best Bet **

*******

Wednesday, Feb. 20th

1^st – I’m a G Six (1) was closest to par, but has no winning angle. After an 8-30 winning run, Hamm is 0-12 now with L4-8 + S types. KOC is only 2-30 win with the Turf 1Mi to Dirt 7F move since 2005. Chavez is 6% Win with TtoDs and he’s 0-13 with RtSs leaving us with:

Exacta Key Box 1/2,6,7

$25 DD1/6

2^nd – This is Harvatt’s big move: no move at all. He has an IV of 3.0 with these, so Makeyourselfathome (6).

Exacta Key Box 6/2,3,8

Saver Trifecta 6/1,7/2,3,8

3^rd – Rubley presents with an 18% Win and 36% ITM angle and Benevolent Prince (9) is defect free. Ferrer is winless in six weeks, giving us pause for concern but not alarm. Johns is 64% ITM with his angle and Dominguez is 44% ITM at average odds of $17.50-1.

$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 9/6,8

Saver Trifectas 9/3,5,7/6,8 to cover

4^th – Trifecta Box 6,8,9,10

5^th – A sensible claim appears likely to be rewarded with a win for Michele Boyce here.

Win 5

$100 Weighted Pick 3 – 5/1,2,4,5,7/9 (5 bets)

7^th – We are reminded that in Maiden races for 3&up, a 2^nd place finish last out carries with it an IV of 2.74 for the win in next start.

Win 9

8^th – Motion is only 19% win with Non-shipping 2L1-3s in L5T, so a surprise would not be unusual given the horsemen represented here.

Parlay ½ of any winnings today into:

Trifectas All/7/1,3,6 (24 bets)

9^th – Sweezey’s quick and dirty profile has been worth the effort. He’s 4-5 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3s, 7-10 ITM with 1^st 3 M + 1^st 3 T types, 11-17 ITM with Shortenups and 5-8 ITM with UCEs. Gets a piece. Cazares was ITM in 8 of last 11 with 5 bombs.

Exacta Box 2,6,7 and Saver Trifectas 2,6,7/1,3,5,9/2,6,7 to cover

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays for Feb. 20th

Meager, chalky casher in the early sequence on Sunday, isn’t cause for a major celebration, but we’ll take it. Today’s 8th is filled with high priced stock, yet, they look to break the maiden at Tampa… interesting … more interesting is Justify’s 1/2 sister thrown into this mix ….this is a watch closely race …

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 3, 6 WT 6, 9 WT 2, 6, 8,10 WT 5 * … $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 1, 2, 4 WT 3, 9 WT 1, 3, 6, 7, 10 WT 6 * … $.50 … $15.00

Co-Best Bet *

****

Wednesday, Feb. 13^th

1^st – Tsirigotis historically bombs with 20% of all starters, including 12 Plain Start types in L3T. Jim has not put one over at the current meeting. Kitchen Police (6) was an APD here on Dec. 29, 2017 and was sent in August at Delaware. A little moisture may propel. Class drop is supposed to validate big wakeup…OK…Uh huh…

Thirty-three of 45 of Raymond’s bombs have been at 6F or related and he has 12 Plain Shortenup bombs, however Raymond’s 3-82 with FBKs with only 17% ITM.

7-5 for Big Awesome misses the mark, IMO.

Exacta Box 3,5,6

2^nd – Two Step Salsa is a 10% Sire at Tampa (35-342) which makes him a leader but not a top tier stud. Mr. Bennett has a 17-25 ITM angle. Rodriguez has a 60% ITM angle and he’s 36% Win with Gallardo up in L3T (16-44).

Trifectas All/2,5/2,3,5,7 (30 bets)

3^rd – OFF THE TURF – Ryan has an IV of 0.53 with FBKs. Raymond is 0-47 with L4-8s and 6-139 with 1PTBs. Hemingway is 54% ITM with Plain Shortenups and if they are off the turf, he’s 21% Win and 58% ITM with OSTs.

Win and Place 2

4^th – One can expect that Descarado (4) will not go “despacito” this afternoon as Feliciano is 59% ITM with Plain Distance Change types. Johns doesn’t do the UCE thing but he’s 39% Win with Plain Dropdowns and 24% Win with Plain Stretchouts. Hard to leave either off a ticket. Dini is now 0-32 since only win at the meeting. For My Mom (5) gets a Valentine’s Day play. Mike is 40% ITM with Plain Stretchouts. Mr. Bennett could rip the crotch out of it, but his singles are only in the high teens here.

Exacta Key Box 4/1,3,5

Saver Trifectas 1,3,4,5/8/1,3,4,5 (12)

Exacta Box 4,8

5^th – OFF THE TURF – Rodriguez is 9-13 ITM with FBKs (cusp), 24% Win moving UC and 33% Win with StRs. If Darien is just babysitting, Arriagada has solid numbers with these angles as well.

Mr. Bennett is 2-14 Win with 2L1-3 + TtoD types and 23% Win with Plain Dropdowns.

70% of Ryan’s wins at the last 4 meetings have been Shortenup or Stretchout types. Derek is 50% Win if the favorite in this situation.

KD’s Catbird (11) was an APD at 8.18F here as a 4YO and was 2^nd next time out in a stalking effort at 11-1. Quirins have been solid in last two. Outclasses many of these if it moves to the dirt. Se todo depende on which ones scratch.

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 2,11

$2 Saver Trifectas 2,6,7,11/2,11/2,6,7,11 (12 bets)

6^th – Trifecta Box 2,3,4,5

7^th – OFF THE TURF – Christa’s Kitten (9) went satisfactorily in both OSTs, gets another bight at the apple. KOC is 43% Win if the favorite in this scenario.

Win 9 if the favorite

8^th – If the third times a charm, what is the 5^th time? Is there a stat for being the beaten favorite in four consecutive races? Goforthegusto (10)! Spin (the wheel) Boy (3)!

Cotto Jr. jumps for Rivelli 2TS Shipper and longtime Owner Carolyn Wilson…my antennas are buzzing…

$0.50 Trifectas

1,2,3,4,6,7,11/1,2/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,11 ($36 never provided so much excitement!)

9^th – Fate has its own rulebook. Quast firster is working off the hook at Goldmark Farm. Distorted Humor is a 22% Sire here at Tampa. On the Dam’s side we have a 15% Sire here in Oldsmar. Could this be his 2^nd win in a 10-year career? We think, maybe…and that would be Plum Amazing (10).

$40 Weighted Exacta Key Box 10/1,4

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 02/13

More rain will wash away the scheduled 4 grass races. Scratches will be plentiful, but we’ve looked at the wet records of these pieces for 2 days now in the hopes to unlock the secrets ….. the results ? …..can you say ugh?….hope there’s a seat at the bar ….

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 7 WT 2, 5, 9 WT 4, 8 WT 6, 7, 11 … $.50 … $27.00  

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 5 ** WT 3, 8, 9, 10 WT 2, 8  WT 1, 3, 4, 10 … $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

******

Wednesday, Feb. 6th

1^st – Mr. Bennett’s piece was 3 for 4 ITM at 8.18F and was par in last at 7F before failing to take the $$$ in last. Hard to put on top. Charming Verse (7) has soft numbers and Granitz has an IV of 0.71 with FBKs.

If favoritism is not to Lady Gregoria (4) (46% Win Angle) then

Trifectas 1,6/1,4,6,7/1,4,6,7 (12 bets)

2^nd – Exacta Box 2,3,8 and Saver Trifectas 2,3,8/5,7/2,3,8

3^rd – A big bet against here. Raymond is 3-77 with StRs and 4-83 on the Cusp of FBKs. Can Bennett go back to back after longest losing streak in memory? He’s only 12% win with PTBs. Projected pars have been downgraded by four clicks for this miserable lot.

Exacta Key Box 9/3,4 and Saver Tris 3,4,9/5,7/3,4,9 (12 bets)

4^th – Arriagada is 31% Win with Plain RBs with 63% ITM and Padilla is 22% Win (IV 1.69) with Plain Shortenups and 50% ITM. Camacho/Arriagada combo is on fire and Ferrer has woken up recently with 7-14 ITM and 3 Wins in the last two weeks. Pimental is 17.5% Win with No Change types (IV 2.48) with 11 of 23 ITM and tries the angle for the first time this afternoon. All Hundreds (9) surprised at 7-1 for first win since Labor Day 2017. Rightback win four weeks later doesn’t seem likely.

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 1,7,8

$7 Pick 3 – 1,7,8/1,5,10/1,6 (18 bets) ($126)

5^th – $50 Weighted Exacta Box 1,5,10

6^th – Another big bet against here. KOC is 0-55 with UC + Surface Change types. Suba Lou (2) was obviously looking for back to back wins on the lawn before they were taken off the turf in last but the numbers usually tell the right story. Tampa win went 76-82, today’s par is 90-90. 

Motion has gone to the FBK only three times in 10 years and missed in all three. When a trainer usually doesn’t make a certain move, I often toss, but when he rarely makes a move and then does, I consider it to be a positive sign of intentions. Kevin says Motion is trying to sink the hook into the mouth of these new Owners. Motion bred this one and stands to share in minor breeder’s bonus.

Zarina (6) comes out of a race where the 6^th & 7^th finishers ran 1 & 2 in next start (in the same class). Impressive debut made my trip notes page. Stewart is 43% Win and 91% ITM when the favorite in this situation. Gallardo reunites on the class drop.

Better Yet (7) is out of the same race but has no win angle.

$50 Weighted Exacta Box 1,6

7^th – Navarro has gotten his mojo back winning 4 of 8, with 7 of 8 ITM in the last two weeks. His piece and Bennett’s piece both went +5 in maiden win, but back to back disappointments by My Little Rockstar (at 3-2 and 5-2) tip the scales in Navarro’s favor. Dini won’t be 0-fer last 29 much longer.

Win 3

8^th – 7,10/1,2,3,5,8,9/7,9,10 (24 bets) a blanket finish is expected

9^th – Seminara (6) gets first start on a FAST dirt surface since September and may surprise for Dacosta who has solid singles all around here but who’s been unusually cold at this meeting.

Exacta Key Box 6/3,8

DDs 3,6,8/7

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 02/06

Burned by a monster effort to beat the best bet on Sunday ….looking forward to warming temps and sunny skies to aid, but it’s right on paper, leaving it up to us …….moving on …..

Early …. 3,4,9/1,8,9/3,5,10/1 … $.50 … $ 13.50

Late …. 3,7/7,10/8**/2,5,7,9 … $.50 … $8.00

Best Bet **

******

Wednesday, Jan. 30th

Strikethroughs are posted for your edification. No work is ever for naught.

1^st – The K.I.S.S. principle comes into play here. Luna Azteca (7) was above par in first try at this level, ten of twenty claimed from Stewart have won, and she moves to a competent conditioner. May have physical problems, but she already beat most of these. Westlye’s piece comes out of glorified N2Land should be shunned.

Win 7

DD 7/1,2,6

2^nd – Bridlewood work that went +6 above the bullet par recently tips favoritism to Jonathan Thomas’ Smoken Deb (2). Thomas has three distinct MATPs here, all exceeding 65% ITM and he’s 33% Win with Shortenups. Shrewd linemaker rips the crotch out of a big bet here. Situation might change if the crowd is not on board…

Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/1,6

3^rd – Do ya like Trivial Pursuit? Let’s play. Who is the only jockey to win on a deep closer at 8.18F at the last two meetings (and he did it three times)? That’s right – Pedro Cotto Jr. Zitman (1) was above par in last and gets the first “poetic inevitability” play of the meeting.

Exacta Box 1,2,4

4^th – OFF THE TURF – Over the weekend we did a quick and dirty trainer profile on Kent J. Sweezey that has yielded some promising angles. He’s 3-4 ITM with 2TS or 3TS + 2TT or 3TT types (with two bombs) and 8-12 ITM with Shortenups with three winners.

Exacta Key Box 9/2,8

Saver Trifectas 9/3,4,10/2,8

When others are shrugging their shoulders, we find answers. That’s what distinguishes us from all the rest. The question du jour: Who wins races that were originally scheduled for the turf (OST) here in Oldsmar.

Going back to 2005, it looks like this…

Hemingway is 22% Win and 56% ITM (18), Granitz 33% Win and 67% ITM (6), Arboritanza 50% Win (4), Cazares 17% Win and 67% ITM (12). Hinsley is 4-57 Win. Sweezey has had no luck at two meetings.

Bowersock is 1-18 with TtoDs. All of Cazares’ wins were piloted by Ademar Santos this year and Camacho was her go to in P2T. She was 4-45 Win (9%) with others up during this period so Alencar looks wrong, and Santos is already engaged (for Hinsley).

Exacta Key Box 2/5,8

Saver Trifectas 2,5,8/3,9,10/2,5,8

5^th – Camacho jumps off an obvious contender prompting further inquiry and revealing that Mr. Lopez is 26% Win with Layoffs on the Dirt.

Trifecta Box 2,6,7,8

6^th – OFF THE TURF –  This race promises to be a “white knuckler”. Socialite and TBD President Stella F. Thayer looks for her sixth win in as many years and Delacour has a 23% Win single angle here. Vicky Oliver is 27% Win at odds between $3-1 & $7.50-1 but is 0-13 at less than $3-1. Brisset has three bomb angles in play here. Lerman is a logical choice. 

Trifecta Box 2,3,5/2,3,5,6/2,3,5,6,8

Pass

7^th – Audobon Wood (3) is the one. Wilkes is 77% ITM with 2L1-3 + Dropdown types and doubles his ordinary strike rate for win with TtoD types. Rigattieri is 17-22 ITM with StRs and tries the angle for the first time today. Have confidence in the puppet masters, O ye of little faith! (The 3 is also Kevin’s Best Bet today!)

$100 Win 3

$50 Exacta 3/5

$25 DD 3/9

8^th – OFF THE TURF – Sunday, I was talking about the necessity to allow our sensibilities to evolve. Son of So (5) is another example of how context must be a participant at the table of sound handicapping practices. Rarick is 10-13 ITM with No Change types, but is a NC, a NC when there’s nowhere else to go? In the past I would say yes, today I think not.

Carrasco Jr is 4-5 ITM with 2TT + Dropdown types and 20-42 ITM with StR + Dropdown types. One of these part wheels is gonna pop.

Trifectas All/9/1,7,8

Win 9

9^th – I touted the young Peruvian Jorge Panaijo back in November and he’s been right there on anything showing signs of life. Five Grand (1) faces a bunch of losers in debut for trainer Nick J. Caruso, who hasn’t disappointed either. However, 8.18F at first asking seems a bit of a fanciful notion.

Trifectas 4,6/1,2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6

10^th – OFF THE TURF – In spite of an unprecedented 0-27 run, Dale Bennett’s runners remain consistently sensitive to price. He’s now 151-202 ITM when at $2.60-1 or less (and 2-3 ITM at the current meeting) with 43% Wins. I’ve been talking about a Martingale for a few weeks, but again, I won’t start one with a PTB. Dale is 48% ITM with Pablo up in L3T. 

Win 7 if the price is in the zone

Exacta Box 2,5,7

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 01/30

Well, there are no consolations for 3 of 4 X 2 ….cepting

maybe, the Bright Cold Buds at the end of the dark tunnel.

….Sure would taste better if Mr. Berube were buying ….

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 2, 5 WT 4, 7, 8, 10 WT 7 WT

2, 3, 5 … $.50 …$18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3** WT 3, 7, 8, 9, (12) WT 4, 6

WT 2, 4, 5, 7 … $.50 … $16.00 ($20.00)

Best Bet **

******

Wednesday, Jan. 23^rd

1^st – Trifecta Box 1,2,3,6

2^nd – All underperformers, each and every one.

Weighted DD Wheel All/3

3^rd – It’s hard for Tampa’s Mom & Pop operations to compete with National Leaders when they decide to make the trip across Route 60, from Palm Beach, to make a withdrawal. While Tampa is often a proving ground for Bill Mott’s 1^st 3 Maiden and/or 1^st 3 Turf types, Bill is usually right there with established runners and Claiborne Farms is always among the top 100 earners in N.A. Glossy (3) was shipped to Payson Park directly after N1X win at Aqueduct (IV 1.61 in L6T) last month and has been working regularly and sharply. Camacho gets it done.

Win 3

4^th – Miami based Lady and Me Stable LLC has a runner with its namesake (the corporation preceded the filly) and by a leading Tampa Sire. Her PTB trainer D’angelo has an AEPS that would put him in the 81^st percentile for earnings here. The Lady made a big effort in last, making a +7 final fraction and a +3 final Quirin but the returning runners from that race have not impressed and Camacho jumps for the red-hot Terranova stable. Lady and Me (2) is their only active runner presently and she gets a little bump for having, literally, all the attention.

The gospel rocker preacher/trainer Johnny Collins bombed with Kwaina ($69) recently. We hit the all but button for win in our trifecta part wheel in that race, but our key ran 4^th instead of 2^nd (that would have been a season maker – the 50-cent tri paid $3610.00). I wouldn’t toss Moonlit Sea (8), though Johnny tells me she’ll need this race.

Trifectas 2,6,7/All/2,6 (18 bets)

5^th – I’m stuck here, but I would not leave Brisset off my ticket. All his bomb angles are lighting up my circuit board.

Pass

6^th – A no brainer exacta for the conservative and the practical. Will pay 3/2. If I was ahead, I might put it all on the line with this one.

Exacta Box 2,3

7^th – Trifectas 3,7/1,2,3,7,8/1,2,8 (18 bets)

8^th – Trifecta Box 1,3,4,8

10^th – Bowersock and Arriagada both have 20% Win angles here. Potts is 40% ITM with L4-8s. McKanas has multiple repeat bombers.

Exacta Box 2,7 and Saver Trifectas 2,7/1,6/2,7

****

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 1/23

31 days into the meet, and the elusive 4th still eludes

us ….. trusting the balloon payouts on Sunday will be

the pinnacle for the meet ….

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 5, 7, 10 WT 7 WT 2, 3, 5, 6,

7, 9 WT 5** … $.50 … $12.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 2, 3, 6, 7 WT 1, 7 WT 2, 5, 10

WT 7 … $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

*********

Wednesday, Jan. 16^th

1^st – So Scott is now 7-58 with Non-shipping L1-3s but that’s an IV of only 0.75.

Chilling Secret (4) made solid Quirins in both tries and has worked sharply on a FAST dirt surface here. Carrasco Jr. has the ML choice at 5-2 but he’s 0-17 with Long Layoffs. The Bennett machine is now 48% win when the favorite and Gerry has all 20% Win singles here.

Exacta Box 4,5,6

2^nd – Rhone (10% Win in L3T) is now 0-16 and looks to get it done in 2^nd off the claim with Best Offer (1). He’s 20% Win with these. Horses claimed from Bennett take an average six tries to get to the circle, so Jiffy Josh (3) will have to wait his turn.

Trifecta Box 1,5,6,7

3^rd – Twocubansbrothersu (2) (an APD in 2018) was 4-4 Win or Place in P2T and 15-22 Win and Place in all starts in L3. The 9YO is 17-21 ITM at today’s distance (but won often at 8.5F as well). Sixteen of twenty-one of Rigattieri’s bombs have been Distance Changes and John hasn’t bombed yet at the current meeting. Morales sticks after 20 length defeat in last? I was reminded of Ray Stifano’s Palace Barista when looking at this PP. That oldtimer was notorious for the sudden wakeup at long prices. I’ll give it one chance since I was off it in last and saved $$$ in that one.

Exacta Key Box 2/1,5,6

4^th – Just Call Saul (2) hangs on for Hennessy’s first win with an 2L on the dirt in L5T (19 tries).

Saver DD 2/7

5^th – Granitz is 65% ITM with the TtoD + Dropdown move and Gallardo sticks after even and game efforts in last two on the lawn and was above today’s par two back. Seltzer is 22% win as an Owner and Thulean (7) makes his Top 15 Horses list with $53 K in earnings. If I was ahead, I’d claim Thulean in a minute.

1,5,10/7

Saver Pick 3- 7/All/5 (10 bets)

8^{th –}  Stidham is now 15-22 with UC move and is 81% ITM on the Rightback. Terranova is 24% Win in L5T and his piece was above par in last. Rubley’s Aciano (10) was above par in both tries and faced markedly superior field in last.

$150 Weighted Exacta Key Box 10/2,5

$20 Saver Trifectas 2,5/,2,5/10 (2 bets) ($40)

9^th – Trifecta Box 1,4,7,9

10^th – Exacta Box 1,2,8

****

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 1/16

Teased yet again, on Sunday, but, Ms Baxter found her savior,

as the live single in the last set pedestrian fractions for a half,

couldn’t use the blistering pace to hang around for a picture,

faded badly, and was abruptly claimed by the meet’s leading

trainer ….

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 3, 5 WT 2, 5 WT 3, 7, 9, 10 WT 8, 10

……………………. $.50 … $16.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 5 WT 5** WT 1, 2, 7 WT 1, 4, 8, 10

……………………. $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

****

Wednesday, Jan. 9th

1^st – Wasiluk hasn’t had a runner that won four of last seven in, well, forever. Ms. Elegance (2) gave way in OST in the SLOP, then pressed the pace before tiring versus SALW types. Peter is 51% ITM with FBKs, 51% ITM with Dropdowns and Martinez was up on his only winner at the meeting. Must get a piece. Granitz’s piece (out of the same race) similarly has a 57% ITM angle. 

$50 Weighted DDs 2,4/6

2^nd – R Sweet Exchange (6) was above par in long layoff victory and drops in class today. Two that were well beaten in that race have come back to bomb in the next starts. Mr. Bennett is 50% Win when the favorite at the current meeting and is 4-6 Win, 6-6 ITM with Rightback favorites presently and 22-41 Win in L4T.

$100 Weighted DDs 6/1,5 (expect about 5-2 return)

3^rd – Lady Breanna (1) was also above today’s par in last, 92-92 versus an 87-89. Mr. Bennett is on the cusp of a FBK here (+1 day) and he’s 86% ITM with these. The filly appears to be the likely favorite again, a 50% Win angle for Mr. Bennett at the meeting.

5^th – Ubide sometimes bombs with long layoffs and he’s 4-8 ITM with TtoD + RtS types.

$2 Trifectas All/5/4,8,9 (21 bets) ($42)

6^th – Pick 3 – 2,3,6/1-9/1 (27 bets)

8^th – Tony (1) went 95-97 in maiden win. Today’s par is 93-93. Lerman outperforms with Non-shipping L1-3’s and Rightbacks. Gallardo sticks.

Exacta Key Box 1/7,8

DDs 1,7,8/3

9^th – Rodriguez is 36% Win with UC + DC types and Red Angry Bird (3) was above par for total energy in N2L win. Klopp’s singles are solid all around and he’s 50% ITM with L1-3 + RtS types.

$25 Win 3

$25 Weighted Exacta Key 3/7,9,10

DD 3/3

10^th – Arba (3) made +6 EP in the Slop and looks right on the Shortenup going back to the lawn.

Win 3

*****

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 01/09

Knocking on the door doesn’t necessarily open it for you.

Not only does the best bet on Sunday succumb, but to

her stablemate, and at a 12-1 humiliation…… first 

and third in a juicy ALW at a price ….$99.40 for a

$3.00, $.50 box …..way to go Iggy

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 1, 7 WT 2, 4, 6, 8 WT 6, 8 WT 2, 6 … $.50 … $16.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 3, 4, 8 WT 8** WT 3, 9 WT 2, 3, 8, 9 … $$.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

**********************************

Wednesday, Jan. 2^nd

On the first racing day of the new year, conventional handicapping offers more than MATPs, with the exception of the 3^rd and the nitecap, however, while impressive, the stats in the last race are rather soft.

1^st – Pick 3 – 1,3,5/7/5

2^nd – Jiffy Josh (7) beat Wild Wigglin Jack who has since won back to back. Burton, out of that race has run 2^nd and My Bernie was also 2^nd. In Josh’s rightback win, three that he beat ran 1,2,3 in their next start. It’s hard not to put Josh on top.

Win 7

Pick 3 – 7/5/4,5,6,8

3^rd – Holiday Storm (5) made +10 final fraction in FIRM turf try, hinting that a stretchout may go well. Blair has not missed the board with a 3TT here in Oldsmar and he’s 71% ITM with Stretchouts.

Conditional $100 Win for > 2-1

Pick 3 – 5/4,5,6,8/4

4^th – Together, Rhone, Harty and Arboritanza have won 2 MSWs at the last three meetings.

Pick 3 – 4,5,6,8/4/2,6,7,8

5^th – Handsome Girl (4) went +11 early and par late while digging in in first try on the dirt and shortens up today.

ATB 4

Pick 3 – 4/2,6,7,8/1,2

6^th – Exacta Key Box 2/6,7,8 and Pick 3 – 2,6,7,8/1,2/2,3,8,10

7^th – Conditions should encourage competition, not fill races. In these OC’s, honest $16K claimers are hard to beat.

Exacta Box 1,2

Saver Trifectas 1,2/4,5,7/1,2

Pick 3 – 1,2/2,3,8,10/3,6,8,9

8^th – Pick 3 – 2,3,8,10/3,6,8,9/2,3

10^th – Stidham is 3 for 4 Win with his UCEs with both ITM on 3 of 4 occasions.  The 2 was beaten by Liberale, who won yesterday down south. Michael is 5-11 Win with Stretchouts (see #2) and 6-12 Win with StRs (see #3).

Exacta Box 2,3

Trifectas 2,3/All/2,3

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays for Wed. Jan 2nd

New year, new luck …or so it’s said …..

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. 2, 5, 6 WT 4 WT 2, 4, 6 WT 2, 3, 6, 8 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 1, 2, 3, 4 WT 2, 3, 8 WT 8 ** WT 2, 3, 7 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet **

******

Wednesday, Dec. 26th

1^st – Navarro misses an 8 for 9 ITM angle here by 9 days, but in his favor, there hasn’t been a 6F $8000 or $10000 claimer here during that period. It is a stretch though… Mr. Bennett wins 46% with FBKs when the Favorite but that doesn’t appear likely today for Sophistication (4), however, he is 15-51 Win with UCEs.

Exacta Box 1,2

Pick 3 – 1,2/1,5,6/5

3^rd – You can’t blame a trainer for trying to grab a piece of a $110K purse in a glorified SALW, so Navarro is forgiven for being outrun at 7F in the Claiming Crown Stakes (a Starter $16 in 2017-2018) at Gulfstream recently. Rigattieri had the same idea, but Twocubanbrothersu wins at 8.5F and failed in his Starter $8000 lifetime. Navarro is 40% Win in 25 tries with his angle. Twocbanbrothersu is a crowd favorite here and should help to deliver a bit of value on Chunnel (5).

Win 5

Exactas 5/1,3,6

4^th – Arboritanza has been 16% Win here for three meetings in a row and is not likely to remain 0-11 for much longer. He’s a changeup artist and an all angle threat and remains a solid investment. Barefoot Cove (4) was above par in two wins versus tougher last winter here.

Exacta Key Box 4/1,3,8

5^th – Pass

6^th – KOC is 33% Win if the favorite in this situation and Sweet Daddio (5) was very close to par for total energy (TE) in debut.

Win 5

7^th – Navarro is 30% Win in 90 tries when on the Shortenup. He’s already made as many starts here this season as all of the last, so it appears Jorge intends to do some serious damage in Oldsmar in 2018-2019 (and he will).

Win 5

8^th – Jimmy Divito has a solid MATP here. He’s 8-17 Win and 12-17 ITM. First try at this level looks right for this 3YO that makes par final fractions regularly.

$125 Win & Place 3

9^th – Ferraro is 42% ITM at $8.40-1 with his MATP.

Exacta Key Box 9/1,6,7

10^th – Joan Scott is 7-12 ITM with the 2S + 3TT move and that gets her a piece.

Trifectas All/7/1,4

******

Mr Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 12/26

A weighted ATB on Mr Terranova’s piece in Race 8 on Sunday was

the bailout of yet another frustrating day …..close does not count

in horse racing…… Mr. Pick 4 is not a big fan of the “All” button,

but R 3 today is a handicappers’ nightmare …………

Early Pic 4 (3-6) …. All (6) WT 3, 4, 8 WT 3 WT 1, 5 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (7-10) …. 5** WT 1, 3, 6, 10 WT 3, 6, 9 WT 1, 7, 9 … $.50 … $18.00

Best Bet ** 

******

Wednesday, Dec. 19^th

 

Drying out from two inches of precip followed by a couple of days in the 60’s (for highs) makes for a wait and see scenario. The rail might be favorable today.

 

3^rd – Tsirigotis is 8-10 ITM with the L4-8 + S move, 3-4 ITM with the Long Layoff + RtS angle and 50% ITM when at odds < $9-1. The only thing likely to derail Jim here is unsatisfactory odds (his average ITM odds here are $15.40-1 in L5T). Nevertheless, 25% of his ITM finishes are at odds < $5-1. PP6 has won 8 of 29 since the rains came last week. Harvatt has two 50% or > MATP ITM angles here and he’s 6-20 ITM with 1PTBs in L5T. GLA acquires Scottish Sky (1) and Carrasco Jr is 3-37 with 1PTBs in L5T and 1-12 with Mena up in L2T. I’m thinking no.

 

$150 Weighted Exacta Box 6,8

$10 Trifectas 6,8/1,2,4/6,8 (6 bets) ($60)

 

6^th – Noonsight (10) dueled from the start to midway in the far turn with a +12 EP (and with the rail at 22 feet), before putting away that one, only to have another run at him late. He weakened in the stretch but kept 2^nd and ended with a +1 above par effort.  Switches to Lynch who has been a magician on the lawn so far. Feargal has been beaten more than a few lengths on the turf here only once.

 

Weighted Exacta Key Box 10/2,5,8

 

7^th – Silly Factor (6) was par in SALW8 last time out but only had to beat one serious contender, Rockaroundtheclock, another 4YO that’s been knocking about in Starter company. Today we have another six-horse field, with three of those eligible as N3Ls. Scott is 39% Win with TtoD + Dropdown types, but only 10% Win with PTBs. Navarro is only 13% with L4-8s. Bowersock enters for a tag, ostensibly to remain eligible for the N2X condition. I suppose that makes sense off the long layoff, but $32,000 isn’t what it used to be. Maria has me guessing.

 

Exacta Reverse Key All/6

 

6^th – Noonsight (10) dueled from the start to midway in the far turn with a +12 EP (and with the rail at 22 feet), before putting away that one, only to have another run at him late. He weakened in the stretch but kept 2^nd and ended with a +1 above par effort.  Switches to Lynch who has been a magician on the lawn so far. Feargal has been rarely beaten more than a few lengths on the turf here.

 

Weighted Exacta Key Box 10/2,5,8

 

7^th – Silly Factor (6) was par in SALW8 last time out but only had to beat one serious contender, Rockaroundtheclock, another 4YO that’s been knocking about in Starter company. Today we have another six-horse field, with three of those eligible as N3Ls. Scott is 39% Win with TtoD + Dropdown types, but only 10% Win with PTBs. Navarro is only 13% with L4-8s. Bowersock enters for a tag, ostensibly to remain eligible for the N2X condition. I suppose that makes sense off the long layoff, but $32,000 isn’t what it used to be. Maria has me guessing.

 

Exacta Reverse Key All/6

 

8^th – KOC’s Abiding Star (1) was up close and above today’s par in last over a FIRM Turf course in GIII at Monmouth over the Labor Day Weekend. The KOC/Gallardo combo is 33% Win and 64% ITM in 95 tries recently. My namesake (My Bariley #9) broke maiden here in 2016, then came rightback to be 2^nd at $26-1 in an N1X. The gelding returns today after a solid 4YO campaign. Two scratches at CD recently (OFF TURF) hint at positive intentions today, however Granitz is only 8% with Layoffs and Shippers but exceptions are not uncommon and running style is favorable versus these. Feliciano is 0-19 with DtoT types.

 

Exacta Box 1,9

Saver Trifectas 1,9/6,7,8/1,9

 

9^th – Spring Up (1) went +5 early in first try and should be able to control the pace today. Another chance. Hemingway has two distinct MATP ITM angles here, both close to 60% and he’s 100% ITM when the favorite in this situation. Minieri is yet to hit the board. Why not here?

 

Exacta Box 1,4,9

 

10^th – Connelly is 33% ITM with all starters here at $9-1 in L10T. PTB status is the fly in the ointment. Harty is hot and has been in the circle in all three tries when the favorite this season. He’s also 7-11 ITM with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown + StR angle. Arboritanza also looks for first check of the meeting.

 

Trifecta Box 2,6,7,9

**************

Wednesday, Dec. 12th

2^nd – Bowersock is now 2-51 with 2Ss and Wasiluk 2-56 with L4-8s. Pass

3^rd – Holiday Storm (9) presents with a 100% ITM angle for Jordan Blair, who flagged us last season for bigger things. He’s 7-7 ITM and 3-7 Win with the L1-3 + 1^st 3 Turf angle. This one will need to be heavily backed to garner our support. Jordan is 84% ITM when the favorite. Colebrook is 79% ITM at < $6-1. Local girl power connections only miss the board in one of three and should be given a piece.

Trifecta Box 5,6,9,10 if the board says yes.

4^th – KOC is now 56-70 ITM (80%) with UCEs and is par with 2YOs. Both of Kathy’s runners have win angles, but sorting this out is above my pay grade. Pass

6^th – Scott is 13-16 ITM with the L1-3 + Dropdown + Shortenup. Minieri has solid singles all around. Gallardo sticks aboard Best Offer (7) and Rigattieri is 50% ITM with his singles.

Exacta Box 5,6,7

7^th – Trifectas 5,10/2,3,5,9,10/2,3,9

8^th – Above Par Dueler (APD) Rattlesnakerose (8) may reprise that February effort on the shortenup today. Longtime bomb maker Zollie Durr, has a ½ sister to 3X bomber Weekend Appeal here, but it looks like he’s playing it straight for a change. Sometimes there’s more money in purses than there is in gambling.

Trifecta 8/5/2

DDs 8/3,10

9^th – Two APDs, Vitsal (3) and Epic Drama (10) may break sharply and never stop.

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays for 12/12

 On Saturday, 12/8: A quick explanation as to why we bounced out of the early Pic 4 so

wimpleee in R 4 …..bottom level NW’s of 2 ….the race is completely

devoid on paper of any early speed, and Ward /QHam look to be the

most devoid ….so what happens ? ….QHam sends the piece, along

with 2 other speedballs to keep him company, to splits of 22.2, 45.2,

57.4 !!! and stops the clock at 1:10.4…..8k NW/2 !!…..double checked,

and Equibase confirms the splits ….Nuff said

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 4, 6 WT 1, 5 WT 1, 2, 8 WT 6, 7 … $.50 … $18.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 2, 3, 7 WT 3, 10 WT 8** WT 1, 3, 5, 10 … $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

****************

Wednesday, December 5th

2^nd – Barboza Jr. makes a visit to Tampa occasionally to make a withdrawal. He’s 20% Win since 2015 with a Tampa busting AEPS of $4524. He goes to 35 year old Venezuelan pilot who’s made a name for himself at the Hipodromo Riconada. We wish Jorge Urdaneta luck today.

DD’s 3,6,7/4

3^rd – Nations is 6-8 Win here with UC + Favorite types and 58% Win with Plain Favorites. Northern Wind (4) made today’s par on Opening Day. Camacho sticks.

Win 4

5^th – Chilling Secret (2) has ML of 4-1 but Simms in 0-9 with FTTs and 0-22 with all DtoTs. Demasi is 0-22 with all UCs. Rarick is 2% Win with L1-3s and 4% with Shippers. Randy also has no DtoT wins, he’s 0-12. Tammaro III is only 4-14 ITM in 1^st 3 OC in L3T.

Trifecta Box 3,5,6,7

6^th – Stidham is now 3-9 Win and 6-9 ITM with 2L1-3 + S types. Simply Great (3) was roused along a less than golden rail, getting up close in the stretch before finishing evenly in first off short layoff but looks for first win on a FAST track here. Three rookie conditioners without a history to draw upon have us looking elsewhere to make a wager.

Pass

7^th – Muggsamatic (8), in 2^nd off the long layoff, nosed out Ness’ Ghost Hunter (winner of 19 and $800K and 8 (3-4-0) here in Oldsmar) for a minor award in an open $50K event at Belmont just 6 weeks ago. KOC is 31% Win and 79% ITM with Uncoupled Entries and Kathy doesn’t go to Uske so you can guess which one is live. O’Connell has no other MATP here, but her singles are solid. The Nagles exploit quirky uncaptured PTB angle but Reid is 1-17 with Rightbacks. Harty is 3-45 with FTTs. Motion is 59% ITM with his MATP in 59 tries but has no win angle. 302Cassie (10) moves thru his conditions like a  savvy salesman navigating Midway during a snowstorm. 

Conditional $75 Win 8 for 7-2 or <

$25 Exacta 8/10

Saver Exacta 10/8 to cover

Parlay ½ of any winnings to the 9^th race proposed play

9^th – Stewart is 37% Win (7-19) with L1-3 + S + Stretchout types in L8T and is 19% Win and 44% ITM with UC types. If Nick’s Rose (10) hasn’t gone wrong, 10-1 would be a gift. Ryan is 7-10 ITM with 2S + FBK types.

Weighted Exacta Box 2,9,10

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays for Dec. 5th

On Saturday, Dini had three in, two of which, on paper, looked like 

definite contenders. So, Rockaroundthedock and Jersey John both

get nailed at the wire. Sooooo, Notcho Daddy runs them off their

feet in the 8th as a firster, to further solidify Dini’s philosophy

of “Miracles Happen” ……sound familiar, JB ?

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 2, 5, 7 WT 4** WT 5, 7, 8 WT 3, 4, 7, 9 … $.50 … $18

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 6 WT 3, 4, 7 WT 2, 9 WT 1, 10 … $.50 … $12.00

Best Bet **

*************

Wednesday, November 28th

1^st – Don’s Beach (1) got more action than warranted versus several N1Ys in last for pony girl turned trainer Lisa Allen. The freshman conditioner has had her best luck when not sprinting (10 of 18 ITM at PID) and Don’s Beach appears to like to compete.

Exacta Box 1,2

Saver Trifectas 1,2/4/1,2

2^nd – Stidham was 4 for 7 Win with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown at debut meeting in Tampa and Mame (1) looks tough to beat in first try for a tag. Pablito hit the board in 3 of 4 on Opening Day.

Win 1

3^rd – Monte R Thomas has the best record with 2YOs (7% Win) and he’s usually trying with FTSs (11-42 Win) but he’s notorious for failing to get it done with 2TSs (1-35). Decker (AEPS $4740) has a first crop daughter of 2 & 3YO Florida Champion and Graded Stakes winning Sprinter at 4, Fort Loudon. Fort Loudon’s papa, Awesome of Course, sired 15.5% winners here at Tampa. Jacks or Better Farm has not had a winner here in years, but the entity has earned $1M this year. Bowersock is 42% ITM with 2YOs with 4-64 Win and Maria has satisfactory singles but underperforms with Shippers.

Exacta Box 2,3,6

4^th – Potts is usually there on the RB and he’s 53% ITM with Shipper + Stretchout types. Bennett’s are monkeying around here. Gerry has the 60% Win record with his angle recently, Mary Ann is 13-19 ITM on the dirt in L5T, but her runner beat Gerry’s in 4 of 6 tries in L3T (they ran 1,2 twice).

ATB 8

5^th – There’s a lot going on here. Stidham’s piece fits. Sweezey had 5 bombs last season, all with < 10 LT starts. Retro Street (3) popped at 12-1 at Belmont and takes a suspect drop in class here. Stewart is 24% Win with 2YOs but has no FTS + FTT angle and yet Gallardo accepts. Scott has faltered on the grass here in the past couple of years but Slingin Sammy B (6) has 5 MATPs in play here, all > 50% ITM and one for Win 28%, but Joan rarely goes to Pedroza. Correas IV is 6-10 ITM here with Layoff’s on the Turf in L5T.

Trifectas 1,3/2,5,6,8/1,3,6

6^th – KOC is 31% Win and 79% ITM with UCEs but don’t assume which one is well intended. The 1 has no MATP but KOC is 44% Win if the favorite. The 3 has a 5-14 Win angle at 14-1 odds, the L1-3 + S + UC + No Distance Change + No Surface Change. Sunset Empire (6) is by Tampa top ten sire Kantharos, 17.2% winners in L3T.

Exacta Key Box 3/1,2,6

7^th – Longshots with early speed held up satisfactorily on the lawn on Opening Day hinting that well backed front runners are likely to go well on day two after four days for those divots to re-root. Classy My Cowboy (10) is on top of his game now and Johns is 5-10 Win and 70% ITM with favorites off the claim. The gelding makes close to par final fractions consistently.

$100 Conditional Win 10 for $2.30-1

$7 Trifectas 10/8/1,2,7,9 ($28)

8^th – DDs 4,7/2,3,10

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays for Nov. 28th

 

Auspicious start on Saturday. Especially disappointing was the effort (or

lack thereof) of Justin Johns’ chalk #2 in R 8. With limited starters, he comes

in off a very strong Arlington meeting (30% W 51% ITM). And it appears

that I Correas IV has come with both barrels loaded…..WATCH

Early Pic 4 (2-5) …. 1, 4, 6 WT 3, 5, 6 WT 3, 7 WT 8** … $.50 … $9.00

Late Pic 4 (6-9) …. 3, 6 WT 7, 8, 10 WT 7 WT 1, 5, 9 … $.50 … $9.00

Best Bet **

****

Saturday, November 24th

Welcome back to our loyal subscribers and welcome to those riding this train for the first time, as we begin our 12^th Tampa meeting at the Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper.

While many selections will be posted each racing day, the ones that I intend to wager on personally (and the only ones that will be counted in my record) will be presented in bold type.

Last minute changes to selections, wager sizes and cancellations will be transmitted via twitter only, so follow us @tamselections.

My colleague, Mr. Pick Four, will once again be providing his Pick Four plays each day, however, all should note that we do not consult on our selections and it will often appear that he is coming from Venus while I am coming from Mars. So it goes…

Always check the program numbers before wagering as I often use the early PPs.

1^st – Mr. Bennett is 4 for 6 win and 100% ITM when the favorite with his angle (L1-3 + S + Dropdown) in the first few racing days at the last three meetings, but the price will be prohibitive and 8 of 92 claimed from him here since 2011 have gone to the glue factory. This one looks too good to be true. Feliciano is 2-28 with PTBs and 36% ITM, but Descarado (Shameless to you gringos) was 2^nd here at today’s distance for $10K in 2017. Johns is solid all around but has no MATP. Dini is 43% ITM with Layoff + TtoD types. Carrasco Jr. has competing angles. He’s soft with Layoffs and Shippers but outperforms off the claim. Six horse field makes for a disappointing opener.

Exacta Box 1,4,5

2^nd – Rattlesnakerose (5) went above par while dueling here in maiden victory and comes off the shelf for Mr. Bennett who is 33% Win and 67% ITM with L9ups. The filly also stumbled badly in previous start and could taste dirt again. For sale sign says “I’m not bound for glory” but could get the job done. Front runners could help Decker’s piece, Country Linedancer (4). Decker has a solid AEPS of $4740 and Laurel shippers have an IV of 1.17 here but this filly would need a career best effort today.

Trifectas 2,5/2,4,5,6/2,4,5,6

3^rd – Correas IV is 45% Win (4 of 9) with babies here in L2T, but Cotto Jr. is only 5-111 Win on the lawn here during the same period (and only 20% ITM). Kee shippers have the best IV here, a whopping 1.74. Dollar Blue (6) still fits. Rory Miller is 50% ITM with babies in L7T. Both the 6 & AE12 will have to be up close at the 2^nd Call to be a factor, a yet unseen placement for either. Dini doesn’t usually show much with FTTs but this one was up for a piece, so perhaps Port Desoto (2) will surprise. Mike’s had good success with 8 Wide Willie up recently and he is 69% ITM with L1-3 + S + DtoT types.

Exacta Box 2,6

4^th – Dale Bennett is 33% Win with Non-layoff Shippers (L6T) and 44% Win at odds < $2.60-1 (L9T) but his Achilles Heel is the PTB, winning only 14% in first three. Nevertheless you can’t be 54% ITM in 1000 tries unless you enter them where they fit. Pablo Morales, DB’s go to, is conspicuously off Macho Alpha (5) tempering our enthusiasm but Dale tells me Cotto gave Macho a good ride recently and wants to give him another chance. Gerry Bennett’s luck with this type is spelled out in R1 but if he’s not the top choice, he still has three 20% Win singles…

Exacta Box 6,7

Saver Trifectas 6,7/5/6,7

5^th – This SALW16 or less in 2018 draws mismatched field of ten in which the race appears to be for the place. Without a big surprise, you’ll be Tearless (5).

Win 5

6^th – Mr. Bennett has yet another with that winning angle seen in R1 and R4. Dennis Ward is 28% Win with Non-layoff Shippers. Freshman Trainer Xavier Rivera has a solid AEPS of $2730. However, only Carvajal Jr.’s piece, My Bernie (2) has that running style that wins here at 6.5 F. 98% of all winners at this distance were on the lead or < 1 beaten length at the 2^nd Call last season.

Exacta Box 1,2

Saver Trifectas 1,2/6,7/1,2

7^th – Ousby (1) sure looks right for sophomore conditioner Jose Delgado (AEPS $4598) but choosing a pilot with no career wins on the lawn leaves us ambivalent. O’Connor has been having an off year in 2018, but Marksman (7) has been a bright spot, producing 28% of his 2018 purse checks. The trainer has a 21% win angle here, the L1-3 + Stretchout and he outperforms with Shippers as well. When I’m stuck, I sometimes go long for the fun of it.

Trifectas All/5,7/1

8^th – Johns is 24% Win and 52% ITM Off the Claim here, he’s got a Kee shipper (IV1.74) and a jockey with an IV of 1.29 from the chute. It’s a noob vs. the OG here, El Grande Rojo (1). There are no other angles to speak of except for Pimental, who is 0-46 with Stretchouts.

$50 Win 2

$50 DD 2/5

9^th – Reclamation of Rosebud’s Hope (5) inspires confidence today in Michael Stidham (21% Win in his first Tampa meeting and a lifetime AEPS of $5536). The 3YO also loosely fulfills our 3 + 3 winning profile for N1Xs (3 N1X starts or equivalent and 3 Wins) which wins half of all such races with none entered for a tag. Interesting observation on Yanez. Karen is 50% ITM with the 8’s angle at $24-1 (8 of 16) and Del Sol Farm has had 5 ITM here at $35-1 in L3T. PPs fail to identify Karen as the PTB prior to July 27^th, a quirk in the Equibase record keeping when the same surname is present.

$50 Win 5

$50 Weighted Exacta Key 5/9,10

$7 Trifectas 5/6,8/6,8,9,10 ($42)

10^th – Elusive Bae (11) might be a respectable bet for 5-2. Colebrook’s singles stand out here. Look for the smart money before you plunge.

Win 11

Mr. Pick 4’s Daily Plays for Opening Day

This is it, folks …. the day we’ve been salivating over since July 1st.

Welcome back to the loyalists, and welcome aboard to the new scribes.

And for those of you that are new, a quick review; this is my daily

offering of a modestly priced Pick 4 play, based on the $.50 minimum.

Where it goes from there, is your fun…sit back & enjoy the 2018-2019

Meeting.

Early Pic 4 (3-6)

6, 7, 9, (12) WT 2, 6, 7 WT 5, 6, 8 WT 1…$.50 … $13.50 ($18.00)                                                  

Late Pic 4 (7-10)

3,5, 7 WT 2** WT 1, 5, 10 WT 9, 11 … $ .50 … $9.00

** Best Bet 

*******

Summer Festival 2018

Sunday, July 1^st 2018

1^st – The most consistent bomb maker on our list (she’s made it for the last 6 years), Joyce Kielty, had two like this one in 16-17. Big EP at 7.5F in last and routine early speed make United Song (4) a contender. Wetherington’s best win angle (5-28 Win) is represented here. PTB status is not an issue.

Exacta Box 1,4,6

Saver Trifectas 1,4,6/3,9/1,4,6

2^nd – TURF ONLY – Deaton is 4-4 Win with this angle at $20-1 and doesn’t ask FTSs to run. He’s 24-40 with all Turf starts. Manning has a 6-12 Win angle here and gets Alvarez but it’s a tough sell. Nagle is 13-24 ITM with StRs with 5 Wins.

$125 Win and Place 4

DDs – 4/2,3,7

Saver Pick 4 – 3/2,3,7/5,7/3,5,6 (24 bets)

6^th –TURF ONLY- Card Spun (2) is Mackaben’s top horse in recent years while bombing fairly regularly. The old mare has been close to par four times in 2018 and that’s good enough for me. Ward is 11-15 ITM with Shipper + UC types and has a 28% Win angle here. Loza Jr. has a 32% Win angle here and several of his ITM singles are between 70-80%.  Stewart’s piece is only acceptable if favored.

$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/1,6 if the 5 is not the favorite

Saver Trifectas 1,2,6/5,8/1,2,6 to cover

7^th – Just treat this 3YO like a FTS and you’ll be halfway to the window. Raise Em Up (3) has been working very sharply at Oakridge recently and will look like a different horse after being gelded and with Lasix while under the care of super trainer Efren Loza Jr.

$50 DD 3/1

8^th – Above par effort in turf debut on closing weekend makes Bertie (1) a top contender here. Stewart tries the RtS + Dropdown for the first and last time at the meeting today. Chad is 9-12 ITM with these.

Saver Exactas 3,6,7,9/1 to cover if alive in the DD

*****

Saturday, June 30^th, 2018

A little poetic license helps to summarize my profound disapproval with today’s card:

“Where do you think you’re going? Nobody’s leaving. Nobody’s walking out on this fun, old-fashioned family “Summer Festival”. No, no. We’re all in this together. This is a full-blown, four-alarm fun fest emergency here. We’re gonna press on, and we’re gonna have the hap, hap, happiest weekend of racing since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny fucking Kaye. And when Margo squeezes her fat white ass into the Tampa Bay Downs elevator this afternoon, she’s gonna find the jolliest bunch of assholes this side of the Pasco County.”

1^st – Allen, Alvarez, Chuckie Lopez and Mata have 45 mounts between them with $5000 on the line for a weekend’s work. As Deepthroat once said, “Follow the money!” The 2, 4 & 5 have all been par, but each has a defect. Ciaio’s AEPS of $842 says I only win with the cheapest of the cheap, 12 of 14 of Bush’s bombs have had a race over the track, and struggling Monterrey is hard to back with a 3-98 record in 2018 while Guciardo is 6% win with Non-shipping L1-3s.

Trifectas 4,6/2,5/4,6

2^nd – Another race where we’re stuck looking for the best of the worst. Smith had two winners at last year’s SF but he’s 1-32 with FTTs. Nagle’s piece looks wrong, dropping off the claim and long layoff (he’s 3-30 off the long layoff). Gallego hasn’t won a race since 2016, but Gogas’ piece was right there to the stretch in only turf try. Loza Jr. is always trying with FTS, but won only 14% with FTTs.

Trifectas 3,7/2,4,8/3,7

3^rd – Like Diogenes, the Greek philosopher who walked the streets during the day carrying a lamp and claiming to be looking for an honest man, I looked for Alison Escobar all winter at TBD. The thing is, she is a he. The Puerto Rican hurricane refugee was 17% W and 56 ITM at CMR before moving to the mainland and a quick peak at his record indicates that his two top horses ever both won in their first try. Today he has Notorious Cowgirl (8), a granddaughter of top ten Tampa Sire Giant’s Causeway. The 4YO has been working off the hook at Oxford with the last four being +2, +8, +10 & +6 above the bullet par. Tampa veteran F. Mata is up.

$100 Win and Place 8

4^th – Charlestown star (an oxymoron) Bocachica is up for Nagle, who won 10 of 21 with this angle recently (and 5 of 6 ITM at the last meeting). KOC has no win angle here.

Win 3

5^th – Palacios-Molina rocked the place with 15 lightly raced bombs in L2T, many of the 1^st 3 M and 1^st 3 T variety. Nagle’s chalky piece may rip the crotch out of it.

$100 Weighted Exacta Box 1,6 for 3-1 return

6^th – Old Clyde (8) has delivered so regularly that he gets the play out of habit and respect. Ward has a 71% ITM here. Mike Allen is up.

Exacta Key Box 8/1,3,5

Saver Trifectas 1,3,5,8/2,6/1,3,5,8

7^th – The hereditary gift of common sense has not been wasted on me.

Exacta Box 4,6,8

8^th – Bridle’s Holiday (3) presents off even money trouncing on the loam. An eligibility start? Hemingway wins 50% when the favorite with today’s angle, but I like this 7YO when he goes at long odds…Durr has made our top bomb makers list for three years running and I’m Just Souper (8) fits the mold.

ATB 8

*****

IT’S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY!

Wed., April 25^th

We say goodbye to Wednesday racing today, but without any fanfare. Join us again in November for FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY!

1^st – Rigattieri is 19-33 ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and 3-4 win with them at the meeting and was above par twice in four tries.

Win 2 – Best Bet

DD 2/4,6,7

2^nd – Scott has no FBKs on record, so how does that play for Peas and Carrots (3)? Off track in last would hint at a sensible FBK scenario but she doesn’t routinely go to Mike Allen. Idk. Candy Power (7) is always close to par and Dominguez outperforms with No Change types.

Pick 3 – 4,6,7/2,4,5/1,2,4

6^th – Divine Ambition (1) and Evolution (7) fit the condition best. Bowersock is 67% ITM with L1-3 + No Distance Change types and Ziadie is 50% Win and 69% ITM on the dirt here.

Pick 4 – 1,7/1,2/1,3,4,7,8/3,7 (40 bets)

7^th – Delacour win 38% with this kind and Philo (4) is always par.

Saver Pick 3 – 4/All/3,7 to cover

9^th – Johns and Nagle excel with all their angles and their runners have only seen $10K once (for the win) in 17-18. They are much the best among these. Rodriguez dropped Bold Response (4) to $8K for the Win and that puts me off UC move today.

Exacta Box 3,7

****

Wednesday, April 18^th

So how hot is Samy Camacho? Last year he won 12% here. From Opening Day thru March 31^st he won 18%. In April he won 40% at average odds of $3-1 (and 45% when the favorite at the meeting).

1^st – KOC is 12-21 Win with Non-layoff Shipper + Dropdown types and outperforms with FBKs (IV 1.3).

Win 3

Pick 3 – 3/All/8

2^nd – Delacour may be #4 among leading conditioners with firsters on the dirt, but Donarra has not won with one of their own since April 2016.

3^rd – Tap Speed (8) just looks right for 50% ITM Elliot Sullivan and #3 Leading Owner with 50 or more starts Bruno Schickendanz.

Exacta Key Box 8/1,5,7

Saver Trifectas 2,8/2,8/1,5,8

4^th – Trifecta Box 3,5,7,10

5^th – Thurston (8) has something going for him. Chavez is 7-36 Win (19%) with Shortenup + No Class Change types. He’s been above par in two of last four. 11 of 19 of Jose’s bombs have been Layoffs or 2Ls.

$50 Exacta 6/8

$2 Saver Trifectas 5,7,9,10/6,8/6,8 ($16)

$2 Saver Pick 3 – 8/All/3 ($12)

6^th – Competitive six horse field ensures excitement but is unplayable.

$2.50 Pick 4 – All/3/6/1,2,3,4 ($60)

7^th – Jermyn Street (3) plunges in class after hat trick at related distances versus better. 111 odds-on winners at the meeting give you an idea why it’s been tough to make a buck this year. Clearly my BEST BET of the meeting, but like M.C. Hammer, “u can’t touch this” at least not for win.

Exacta 3/7

Trifecta 3/7/4

Superfecta 3/7/4/5

$10 Pick 3 – 3/5,6,10/3,4 ($60)

8^th – Clearly Love (6) goes for Lopez Jr. (10% Win and 27% ITM on the Dirt here). The mare has made par numbers on several occasions unlike pretender Precious Intent (7), who won by 6 while 8 over par.

$75 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/5,10

9^th – Nobody has a profile on Stidham like ours, so we may eke out a bit more value here. Michael is 40% Win and 60% ITM with L1-3 + S types and 8 for 9 ITM with RBs. His only UCE ran 1,2.

Trifectas 3,4/1,2,7/3,4

****

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Good has many meanings and a good track is not good for betting.

2nd – Bowersock is 1-17 with No Changes and 1-16 when her partner is not riding. Gimme Rodriguez’s piece. He’s 70% ITM with 1^st 3 OC, 4-7 Win with TtoDs and 4-12 Win with UC + DC types. Yanez has bombed with a FTS at the meeting if you’re feeling lucky. R ya punk? R ya?

Queenofthekingdom (5) Win and Place

3^rd – Scott is 41% Win and 65% ITM with Plain TtoD + Dropdown types and 50% ITM with Stretchouts.

Peas and Carrots (6) Win and Place

4^th – Bradley wins more than twice as many races in OSTs than he does routinely and he’s 65% ITM with TtoDs.

Hot Rail (6) Win and Place

Pick 3 – 6/2/1

5^th – Stidham is 6-6 ITM with Plain UCs and 10-12 ITM with all UCs, he’s had some luck with Morales up and Pablo wins his fair share on OFF TRACKs.

Weighted Exacta Key 2/All

DD Wheel – 2/1

Race 7 – Pick 3 – ALL/ALL/4,6,7

7^th – Wilson is 0-26 with Shortenups, but 5-6 ITM if the Favorite in the same circumstances. Rigattieri is 1-12 with Non-shipping L1-3s. I say go long!

****

Wednesday, April 4^th

1^st –  Spunsational (5) was meant to go long (apparently) and Wright is 9-15 ITM with Plain StRs with 3 Wins and 10 of 12 of his bombs were Distance Change types.

Win & Place 5

Saver Trifectas 1,2,3,4/All/5 (24 bets)

2^nd – Conditioner of ML choice is 3-107 with Shortenups.

Exacta Box 4,6,7

Saver Trifectas 4,6,7/1,3/4,6,7

3^rd – The 2,4 & 5 have winning angles but only Arriagada’s piece has the kind of EP numbers that will leave something in the tank for the stretch run. Juan was 23% Win with Plain Shortenups on Opening Day and has been 4-10 Win and 7-10 ITM since.

Win 2

Exacta 2/5

Trifecta 2/4,5/4,5

$1 Saver Pick 4 – 2,5/4/All/4

4^th – Johns is 40% Win with StRs and 56% Win with Morales up.

Conditional Win 4 for 8/5

$75 Weighted  Pick 3 –  4/All/7

 6^th – In 2015, Deaton was featured in Chapter 5 of my book as an exemplar of the quintessential “Bomb Maker”. Over the years, he’s come to be 7-32 Win and 16-32 ITM at average odds of $12.50-1. Spring Mist (7) was par as a 3YO at today’s distance and had the unfortunate luck to draw post 1 during a protracted period when the post closest to the rail was 10-162 with an IV of 0.51. Made bullet par work at Oakridge last week. Camacho sticks.  

 Babie Monster (5) faces softer on the drop in class after three in last subsequently finished up close, but Joe is only 3-28 with Rightbacks. 

Stidham is 0-8 with Non-shipping L1-3s, with 3 ITM.

Clement is 91% ITM with TtoD types and 6-11 Win. Shows us the angle for the first time at the meeting today.

 It certainly would be a welcome manifestation of poetic justice if Deaton put us over the top.

 I hope the prices make it worthwhile, but I’ll be monitoring to make any necessary changes.

$50 Exacta Box 4,7 ($100)

$15 Trifectas 7/1,3,5,6/4 ($60)

$10 Trifectas 4/1,3,5,6/7 ($40)

Saver Trifectas 7/1,3,6/5 to cover

Saver Trifectas 4/1,3,5,6/7 to cover

Saver Trifectas 5/4,7/4,7 to cover

9^th – Nancy Harris woke up in March, with 5-8 ITM at $24-1. Talk about your “short term cycles”!

Exacta Box 1,5,10

Trifecta Box 1,3,5,10

10^th – Exacta Box 3,5,7

Trifecta Box 3,5,7,10

*****

Wednesday, March 28^th

1^st – Ben Feliciano is 29% Win and 71% ITM with RB + UC and angle and 21% W & 47% with Shortenups. Vinson is 55%, 62% and 50% ITM with his three singles here. Hinsley is 66% ITM with Dropdown + DC types. Miguel doesn’t get it done with FBKs or Shortenups. Broken foot hasn’t slowed down Bracho. He’s 7-13 ITM at $5-1 since 10 day’s on the DL due to the injury.

Exacta Key Box 4/1,6

DDs 1,4,6/5

2^nd – Linemaker did his/her homework on this one. Rodriguez is 3-5 Win and 4-5 ITM with TtoD types in L7T. A soft stat seems to have more value to me when the few starts it represents occurred over many years. Precious Intent (5) has made par numbers in a couple of grass tries and will go 100 lengths shorter after making par EP at 9F in last.

Win 5

DD 5/9

3^rd – Arriagada is 8-29 Win and 16-29 ITM with 1OCs and is 5-5 ITM with 1OC + Shortenup types.

Vision of Blue (4) rumbled with a couple of Belmont shippers in last and those two have both been right there after moving up in class since. Kathy is 55% ITM with L4-8 + S + Dropdown types in 44 tries. Bottom’s out for a piece today.

Win 9

Exacta 9/4

5^th – I’ve been grappling with the notion of luck for a lifetime now, at times believing that we make it and at other times believing that it is random. As I get older, I find myself of the opinion that among competent professionals doing a serious job, luck should not be rewarded as if it were a skill. So, I’ve learned to go easier on myself and just keep on keepin’ on…

And that brings us to John Rigattieri, a 17% Win trainer here in L4T who is 55% ITM at the current meeting but has not had a winner since Jan. 19^th. Astute Warrior’s (3) been knocking around some pricey venues and drops a wrung off the short layoff. Riga is 16-29 ITM with L1-3 + Dropdown types and 47% ITM with Stretchouts.

In last, Conquest Stormy (8) got the worst of it, keeping the leader from running off with it, then dueling with the winner into the stretch and then held off another for the place, all with a +7,+1. Easier trip and the job gets done today but a 1-9 win angle doesn’t brighten picture.

Trifecta Box 2,3,5,6

7^th – DD 7/10

8^th – Wilkes presents with a 38% Win angle, the Non-layoff TtoD + Dropdown. He’s also 7-9 ITM with 2L + Dropdowns, 52% ITM with Shippers and 53% ITM with RtS. A ML favorite never looked so bad….maybe it creeps up a click or two.

$75 Conditional Win and Place 10 for 3-1 or >, a $125 W & P for 4-1 or >

DDs 10/1,5

****

Wed., March 21st

1^st – Trifectas All/1/2,6

Saver DDs 1/2,3,4

2^nd – $1 Pick 4 – 2,3,4/2,7,9,11/1,2,3,5,6/2 ($60)

5^th – Noble Thought (2) races under the cover of a rare N4L condition and faces only a couple of legit N3X types, the 3 and the 4, however, the former’s conditioner does little with StR or FTTs and the latter’s is 4-55 Win moving UC. Monster +8 final fraction at 9F two back and above par finishes in last two ice it for me.

Win 2

$2 Pick 3 – 2/All/3,4,5,6,9,10 (36 bets)($72)

6^th – $1 Pick 4 All/3,4,5,6,9,10/7/2,5,9 (90 bets) ($90)

7^th – Smith’s Freakin Me Out (3) surprised twice already and RG is conveniently is 4-5 ITM with the StR + DtoT + 2TT. I’ll take action at 30-1 on that.

$0.50 Trifectas All/3/All ($36)

$1.00 Trifectas 4,5,6,10/4,5,6,8,9,10/3 ($20)

8^th – Another peculiar condition moves the excitement meter into overload. Bowersock claimed Divine Ambition (7) for a nickel 24 months ago and the old gelding has become her top money earner ever with $157K in earnings, a 2600% ROI. All Maria has left is the N3X or a tag and today this gift falls in her lap “SALW8 or less ever”. The secretary is playing favorites again (trainers not horses) and when opportunity knocks…..

Win 7

*****

Wednesday, March 14th

1^st – Pick 3 – 1,2,6/1,2/5

3^rd – Speedway Stable is 24% Win with an AEPS of $44K. Stidham is 3-6 Win with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown and has been satisfactory when the favorite (36% Win).

Value Pick 3 – 4,5,6,7/1,7,10/5,6,7 (36 bets)

5^th – Mr. B is 49% Win with FBK + Favorite types and 38% with Dropdown + Favorite types.

Exacta Key Box 7/5,6 if 7 is the favorite, otherwise Exacta Box 5,6,7

6^th – $0.50 Pick 4 – All/All/6/5 ($50)

8^th – Home field advantage to Cowgirl Tough (6), who was above par in last and goes for Mr. Bennett, 22% Win with Plain Shortenups. Bennett/Gallardo combo is waaaaaay overdue for a winner. Their last victory was New Year’s Eve.

$50 Weighted Saver DDs 4,7,8/5 if the Pick 4 appears likely to be >$300

9^th – 8F on the grass have historically seen 81% Winners from OTP, < 2 beaten lengths at the 2^nd Call. In March, we have observed only 2 front running winners (from the 23 starts at the distance). Sienkewicz’s piece has been above par in every start at the meeting, with well above par EPs in each event. He is > 50% ITM with Plain Dropdowns. Expect Great Harbor Cay (6) to have the lead and be run down by our stalker. You can Takethattothebank (5).

Saver Exactas 6,7,10/5 to cover the $50 or $100 if alive, otherwise $50 win 5

****

Wednesday, March 7th

We got 0.61 inches of rain overnight, but a high of 68 degrees is forecast and it’s not going to evaporate by noon creating an interesting dilemma. 21 of the last 26 races have been won from PP’s 1-5 for an IV of 1.25 if you’ll accept that at face value but it appears the high road will be the dry road this afternoon. Conflating these scenarios has runners from PPs 3,4 & 5 racing in lane 3 early then moving wider to be coming down the hill from the outside entering and finishing in lane 3 or 4. We’ll just have to watch a few and see…

1^st – Now: Exacta Key Box Wheel 6/All

2^nd – Scott’s As Fast as You Can (4) was visually impressive in a well-timed ride with a +5 final Quirin while only feeling the stick once before the final 1/16^th and having much left in the tank at the finish but the early pace was well below par and the filly won’t see a slow EP today. On the Hop (6) went 106-97 in last (today’s par is 89-90) and she was the only 3YO in that race, further increasing wow factor. Likes an OFF TRACK too!

Wish it wasn’t the 2^nd race, but On the Hop (6) may be my best bet of the meeting.

I may make a large wager if the price is right….more later.

$0.50 Pick 3 – 6/All/All (up to $40)

Saver Trifecta 3/6/4 to cover     SCRATCHED

Now:

Exacta Key Box Wheel 4/All

5th – Rhone is trending lower with Rightbacks in recent years, winning only 1 of 21 in L4T (while 20% win at the previous four meetings), however, he wins 45% when the favorite and has not been the favorite at this meeting. 

Sonora (5) is the only honest $12.5 Claimer in the field (along with the lightly raced and arguably untested Silly Factor (1)). Rigattieri has no record with UCEs but Ten Penny Princess (2) with sub-par numbers, looks like a distractor and not the runner we should be focused on. John is 21% W and 64% ITM with StRs and he bombs with Distance Change types. Sonora has a %E in the middle of the range for 8.18F.

$50 ATB 5 (if the 6 is not < 8/5) SCRATCHED

Now: Exacta Key Box 1/2,3,6

Super Speculation Play (go for a few dollars if you can):

7^th – Saver DDs 1,2,5,6,7/2 (TURF ONLY)

8^th You can believe in my methodology or not, all I ask is that you at least accept it at face value.

Chavez is 50% ITM (4-8) with his five characteristic MATP here at average odds of $24-1.

Jose is 40% ITM with El Bombadero, Camacho up, at $6-1.

Pinchin (the PTB) is 22% ITM with Longshots in sprints on the dirt at GP.

Look for some action in the 20-30-1 range. 80-1 indicates their money has not passed thru the window.

If you dismiss Awesome High (2), then you’ll always be shaking you’re head in disbelief while tearing up your tickets. Win or lose, this is the kind I live for…

Exactas 7,8,9,10/2

Trifectas All/7,10/2 (20 bets)

9^th – TURF ONLY 

Dini is 5-83 with Shortenups. My Magic 8 Ball says “Outlook not so good”. The 2^nd choice on he ML is from Westlye, now 0-25 on the Turf.

Bowersock is 9-42 win with Plain Shortenups and while only 7-25 ITM with FTTs and 2TTs, Maria and her co-conspirator and bunk mate RJ Allen Jr are 4-8 ITM with 3TTs.

$25 ATB 7 (TURF ONLY)

****

Wed., Feb 28th

February may be the shortest month, but it felt like the longest month ever. The promise of Spring in March reminds us:

“If we had no winter, the spring would not be so pleasant: if we did not sometimes taste of adversity, prosperity would not be so welcome.”

Meditations Divine and Moral
Anne Bradstreet, The Works of Anne Bradstreet

1^st – The B52s said it best about this race:

“Everybody’s movin’, everybody’s groovin’ baby!”

DD Wheel All/6

2^nd – Ziadie is 7-14 Win in Sprints on the Dirt here in Oldsmar. N1Y win was par. Averill is 26% Win and 61% ITM LT. Money goes to money.

Saver Exactas 3,7/6 to cover

3^rd – Josie Gump still hasn’t cashed a winner’s share check (now 0-13 Win). This Kentucky homebred changed hands in last and Sienkewicz bombed with three PTBs last season. His piece made above par final fraction in maiden win last summer. Let the board be your guide here. Very short or very long looks like the signal today, but I’ll only play for 8-1 or >.

Exacta Box 2,3,7

4^th – In last, Whiskey Trail (1) chased +16 EP while wide, got rolling on the far turn and was drawing away at the finish with Quirins of +9.5, +1, an EP that will carry the gelding to bigger and better things in the future if he can do it over a FAST surface. Harvatt’s Lightning Flash (9) may offer some value after 54 length trouncing in the SLOP in last. Go back to Dec. 30^th and the gelding went 103-90 and today’s par is 95-94. Harvatt wins twice as many with No Change types than his ordinary strike rate.

Exacta Box 1,9

$75 Weighted DDs  1,9/7

$3 Saver Pick 3  1,9/4,6,8/2,3 (12 bets)

5^th  – Stidham’s now 42% Win with Non-shipping L1-3s and 50% Win with PTBs but Pedroza is off here. Ferraro is only 2-24 with RtSs but is 33% ITM and Very Fashionable’s (7) numbers are the best in the field.

Win 7

6^th – The 2 & 3 faced off with Minaret Stakes contenders in last and those two went satisfactorily two weeks ago. Pink Mama (4) narrowly held on versus a weak SALW12.5 field in last and comes back fast in 14 days.

DDs 2,3/2,3

7^th – Mott is 9-31 Win (and 65% ITM)with runners on < 90 days rest that are stretching out. Clement runner outfinished Shiloh in last and Chris is 26% Win with Stretchouts.

Pick 3 – 2,3/3,4,6/3,5,6,7,8,10 (36 bets)

8^th – Charcuterie (4) vied for command to the 1/8^th pole, put that one to bed, then held off a late runner in impressive +5,+5 MSW win in 3^rd dirt start for Bauer (AEPS $6993 here, now 14 (5-4-0) on the dirt in L5T).

Exacta Key Box 4/3,6

****